Climate Research: partial list, recent years only
This partial list only contains the Research citations from this year and last year. You may prefer the full list which has thousands of citations and references going back 200 years to the beginning of modern climate science. Please be patient as it loads.
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I've been following the scientific literature regarding climate change for quite a while, and saved articles and studies I found especially interesting. These are almost entirely from major peer-reviewed scientific journals, government science research agencies, and mainstream media reporting on such studies. Dates are often visible in the entry's link. The list is in roughly chronological order, most recent at the top. To observe the accelerating pace of climate change, read the full list page from bottom to top, or if that seems daunting read just the last few years on this page. To seek a specific topic use your browser's Search to find keywords; the Citations buttons on the Scenarios page may also be helpful.
To be notified when this list is updated, use one of the free page-change services; pagecrawl.io works well but there are many others. This list will be updated as I find more to add. Your suggestions and comments are welcome.
Those interested in the history of the climate crisis might like the 2000 and earlier section, which covers discoveries, presentations and warnings starting from the early 1800s (beginning of modern climate science). This loads from the full list page.
The timeline of earth's average temperature is from xkcd. Click it to go to the original.
Go to reports, articles, and studies published in:
2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019 · 2018 · 2017 · 2016 · 2015-2011 · 2010-2001 · 2000 and earlier
Links before last year will go to the full list page.
How climate risks are driving up insurance premiums around the US – visualized
‘Tight correlation’ between premium rises and counties most at risk from climate crisis
A climate crisis is starting to stir an insurance crisis. “This has been the canary in the climate coalmine, and it’s now hitting households’ pocketbooks,” said Ben Keys, an economist at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School and co-author of the research. “You can deny climate change for whatever motivations you have but when insurance is going up because you live in a risky area, that’s hard to deny” ... As such damaging events pile up around the world, the insurance industry is looking at the climate crisis as a threat like no other. In October, the insurance giant Axa ranked climate change as the biggest risk facing the industry globally, above geopolitical instability and cyber and AI issues, for the third year in a row ... “Sooner or later we are going to have to have a serious meetings of minds about not building in certain places because it just won’t get insurance.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/dec/05/climate-crisis-insurance-premiums
reporting on a study at https://www.nber.org/papers/w32579Recent global temperature surge intensified by record-low planetary albedo
In 2023, the global mean temperature soared to almost 1.5C above the pre-industrial level, surpassing the previous record by about 0.17C. Previous best-guess estimates [fell] short by about 0.2C in explaining the temperature rise. Utilizing satellite and reanalysis data, we identify a record-low planetary albedo as the primary factor bridging this gap. The decline is apparently caused largely by a reduced low-cloud cover in the northern mid-latitudes and tropics, in continuation of a multi-annual trend.
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adq7280The Arctic Could Be Functionally Ice-Free in Just a Few Years
Could occur as early as 2027
Scientists raised the alarm in a study published Tuesday in the scientific journal Nature Communications. The research — which relies on climate models simulating trends in global temperatures and Arctic sea ice concentrations — warns the only way to avoid an ice-free day within the next few years is to cut emissions fast enough to stay consistent with the Paris Agreement’s most ambitious goal, capping global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius. Yet experts agree the world is all but certain to blow past that target [so] that day is on the horizon ... If the first ice-free day does occur within the next few years, it will probably be followed by several more. In these model simulations, the ice-free period lasts 11 to 53 days. That means it could end in less than two weeks, or it could drag on into the first ice-free month — another climate milestone.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-arctic-could-be-functionally-ice-free-in-just-a-few-years
see also https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/12/241203154440.htm
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-54508-3Accelerated Historical and Future Warming in the Middle East and North Africa
Middle East and North Africa are warming much faster than the global average
Since the pre-industrial era, the observed average climate in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has warmed by 1.5°C and is on the brink of exceeding 2°C. The reanalysis data suggest that the regional warming over some MENA sub-regions is three times faster than the global average. By the end of the 21st century, the Arabian Peninsula is projected to [warm] 7.6°C ± 1.53°C under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario. Distinct warming hotspots emerge over the Arabian Peninsula and Algeria in summer and over Mauritania in West Africa and the Elburz Mountains in Iran in winter. The summer hotspot over the Arabian Peninsula has already warmed by more than 2°C and can potentially warm to approximately 9°C under the high-emission scenario. As global warming progresses to 1.5, 2.0, 3.0, and 4.0°C, the average temperature over the MENA land is projected to increase by 2.3°C ± 0.18°C, 3.0°C ± 0.22°C, 4.6°C ± 0.26°C, and 6.1°C ± 0.31°C, respectively. The 1.5, 2.0, 3.0, and 4.0°C warming levels over the MENA are expected to predate those of the global mean by two or three decades.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD041625Japan witnesses warmest autumn on record
Japan has recorded its warmest autumn since records began 126 years ago, the weather agency said, delaying the country's popular displays of seasonal foliage into December. "This year was 1.97 degrees Celsius higher than usual ... making it the hottest autumn since 1898, when statistics began," the Japan Meteorological Agency said Monday on their website. Between September and November, the temperature was 2.4 degrees Celsius higher than usual in Tokyo, 2.9 more in the central city of Nagoya and 1.2 warmer in northern Sapporo city.
https://phys.org/news/2024-12-japan-witnesses-warmest-autumn.htmlUnexplained heat-wave 'hotspots' are popping up across the globe
Global emergence of regional heatwave hotspots outpaces climate model simulationsA striking new phenomenon is emerging: distinct regions are seeing repeated heat waves that are so extreme, they fall far beyond what any model of global warming can predict or explain. A new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences provides the first worldwide map of such regions, which show up on every continent except Antarctica like giant, angry skin blotches. In recent years these heat waves have killed tens of thousands of people, withered crops and forests, and sparked devastating wildfires. "The large and unexpected margins by which recent regional-scale extremes have broken earlier records have raised questions about the degree to which climate models can provide adequate estimates of relations between global mean temperature changes and regional climate risks," says the study ... "Due to their unprecedented nature, these heat waves are usually linked to very severe health impacts, and can be disastrous for agriculture, vegetation and infrastructure," said Kornhuber. "We're not built for them, and we might not be able to adapt fast enough."
https://phys.org/news/2024-11-unexplained-hotspots-globe.html
reporting on a study at https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2411258121South America is becoming warmer, drier, and more flammable
South America is experiencing severe impacts from climate change ... [increase in] droughts and weather conditions associated with enhanced fire risk [including] high fire risk conditions (i.e., dry compounds) since 1971 ... the northern Amazon [has] seen a 3-fold increase in the number of days per year with extreme fire weather conditions (including high temperatures, dryness, and low humidity).
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01654-7Land degradation expanding by 1m sq km a year, study shows
Land degradation is expanding worldwide at the rate of 1m (million) sq km every year, undermining efforts to stabilise the climate, protect nature and ensure sustainable food supplies, a study has highlighted. The degraded area is already 15m sq km, an area greater than Antarctica, the scientific report says, and it calls for an urgent course correction to avoid land abuse “irretrievably compromising Earth’s capacity to support human and environmental wellbeing” ... The synthesis study, Stepping Back from the Precipice, was produced at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), which analysed the land use issue in the context of the planetary boundaries framework. It noted that until recently land ecosystems absorbed nearly one-third of human-caused carbon dioxide pollution, even as those emissions increased by half. But over the last decade the capacity of trees and soil to absorb excess CO₂ has shrunk by 20% due to deforestation and climate change. The main culprit, according to the report, is unsustainable agricultural practices, which are responsible for 80% of forest loss. These techniques, which include heavy use of chemical inputs, pesticides and water diversion, also erode soil, diminish water supplies and contaminate ecosystems. In the short term, this intensive extraction can be more profitable, but it soon leads to lower crop yields and poorer nutrition quality of harvests. In a growing number of cases it results in desertification and dust bowls.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/dec/01/land-degradation-expanding-by-1m-sq-km-a-year-study-shows
reporting on a study at [PDF] https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/rest/items/item_30631_2/component/file_30742/contentAustralia sweats through hottest spring on record as temperatures soar 2.5C above pre-industrial levels
Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) confirms the nation just sizzled through its hottest spring on record. The country's mean temperature in spring was estimated at 2.08 degrees Celsius above the baseline 1961–1990 average, which equates to a temperature around 2.5C above pre-industrial levels ... This is only the second time the 2.5C barrier has been breached for an entire season, going back to 1910 when reliable national averages were first available. While spring 2024 was only 0.05C warmer than the old record of +2.03C from 2020, it was at least 1C warmer than any spring from last century — an indication of the climate acceleration during the past few decades. The record warmth was consistent through all months.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-12-02/australia-weather-hottest-spring-on-record-temperatures-soar/104673886Severe drought causing saltwater to creep up the Delaware River, a major drinking water source
Salty ocean water is creeping up the Delaware River, brought on by severe drought conditions and sea level rise ... the salt line is where saltwater from the ocean and freshwater meet in the river. The farther the line moves upstream, the closer it gets to drinking water intakes, which officials have worked for decades to avoid. The Delaware River provides drinking water for some 14 million people, including most of Philadelphia but also parts of New Jersey and New York ... Amy Shallcross, the water resource operations manager at the Delaware River Basin Commission [said] “It’s only 18 miles right now from the drinking water intakes. And sometimes it can shoot upstream really quickly.” A rainless start to fall brought on a drought in parts of the Northeast [which] has diminished the river’s flow and allowed the denser saltwater to creep upstream.
https://www.nj.com/news/2024/11/severe-drought-causing-saltwater-to-creep-up-the-delaware-river-a-major-drinking-water-source.htmlRich Countries Provide No Haven From Climate Doom, Study Finds
Not one country is on track for a 1.5C future based on 2030 national pledges for cutting emissions [and] the review of 70 countries’ emissions and policies shows “no overwhelming trend” that wealthier countries are doing a better job of tackling climate change. Investors need to see more credible action by governments, said Victoria Barron, chief sustainability officer at GIB Asset Management and ASCOR co-chair, in a statement. “Investors play a pivotal role in driving capital” and “these flows require robust and tangible national climate and energy policies,” she said. Investors largely agree that climate risks aren’t fully priced into markets, and academics are now studying what they’re calling the climate-sovereign debt doom loop to calculate the potential costs to countries ... less than 20% of countries have committed to halt the approvals of new coal, oil and gas production and more than 80% don’t have transparent and credible commitments to phase out fossil-fuel subsidies [and] more than 80% of wealthy countries aren’t contributing their proportional share of an annual $100 billion international climate finance goal, which was increased to $300 billion at the COP29 climate summit in Baku.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-26/rich-countries-provide-no-haven-from-climate-doom-study-findsWorld will be ‘unable to cope’ with volume of plastic waste in 10 years, warns expert
Countries must curb production now and tackle plastic’s full life cycle
The world will be “unable to cope” with the sheer volume of plastic waste a decade from now unless countries agree to curbs on production, the co-chair of a coalition of key countries has warned ... various researchers found microplastics in every sample of placenta they tested; in human arteries, where plastics are linked to heart attacks and strokes; in human testes and semen, adding to evidence of the ubiquity of plastics and concern over health risks. The plastics crisis is widely recognised as a threat to human health, biodiversity and the climate.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/nov/24/world-unable-cope-10-years-talks-un-global-treaty-to-end-plastic-wasteEmissions Gap Report 2023: Broken Record
Stocktake during a year of broken records
The world is witnessing a disturbing acceleration in the number, speed and scale of broken climate records ... [in 2023] 86 days have been recorded with temperatures exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels this year. Not only was September the hottest month ever, it also exceeded the previous record by an unprecedented 0.5°C, with global average temperatures at 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels ... devastating extreme events, which IPCC has warned us are merely a meek beginning ... global GHG emissions and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) also set new records in 2022 ... failure to stringently reduce emissions in high-income and high-emitting countries.
https://www.unep.org/interactives/emissions-gap-report/2023/NASA Satellites Reveal Abrupt Drop in Global Freshwater Levels
Earth’s total amount of freshwater dropped abruptly starting in May 2014 and has remained low ever since. Reporting in Surveys in Geophysics, the researchers suggested the shift could indicate Earth's continents have entered a persistently drier phase. From 2015 through 2023, satellite measurements showed that the average amount of freshwater stored on land — that includes liquid surface water like lakes and rivers, plus water in aquifers underground — was 290 cubic miles (1,200 cubic km) lower than the average levels from 2002 through 2014 ... reduction in available water puts a strain on farmers and communities, potentially leading to famine, conflicts, poverty, and an increased risk of disease when people turn to contaminated water sources, according to a UN report on water stress published in 2024 ... Considering that the nine warmest years in the modern temperature record coincided with the abrupt freshwater decline, “We don’t think this is a coincidence, and it could be a harbinger of what’s to come.”
https://science.nasa.gov/earth/nasa-satellites-reveal-abrupt-drop-in-global-freshwater-levels
see also https://scitechdaily.com/vanishing-waters-nasa-reveals-alarming-global-freshwater-decline/
reporting on a study at https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-024-09860-wWhy has Earth been so unusually hot for the past 2 years? Climate scientists are trying to figure that out
NASA climate scientist says it's 'frustrating' not to have answers
The past two years have been different — and climate scientists don't understand why. [Something] seems to be driving temperatures up, higher than scientists expected or would like. [Copernicus Climate Change Service] said in its latest monthly bulletin that 2024 is virtually certain to be the warmest year on record [and] NOAA found in its latest monthly report that Jan-Oct temperature was the warmest in the 175-year record. This isn't what was expected ... the warmth that we typically see after an El Niño was expected to stick around for [only] the first few months of 2024 [but] "We're now 11 months going on 12 months after the peak of the El Niño event and global temperatures are still exceptionally high," said Zeke Hausfather, a research scientist at Berkeley Earth ... Climate scientists aren't gods. They take the data that they have, analyze it and reach conclusions. But for these past two highly anomalous years, they are struggling with what they're seeing, and it's difficult for them to know what's coming next.
https://ici.radio-canada.ca/rci/en/news/2121431/2024-warm-year-climate
see also https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/13/opinion/climate-change-heat-planet.htmlDelhi chokes as air pollution turns 'severe'
Delhi and its neighbouring cities are experiencing pollution levels that are at least 30-35 times the safe limit recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) [and] experts say that the condition is likely to get worse ... Several northern states have been experiencing toxic air and poor visibility over the past few weeks. There have been reports of flights to and from Delhi being cancelled or delayed due to low visibility. So thick is the smog that it is visible even from space.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0k8dxpr8x5oThe Northeast Is Becoming Fire Country
For weeks now, more than ninety per cent of the Northeast has experienced abnormal dryness. In some places, such as New York and New Jersey, the deficit of rainfall is nine inches and soil moisture is ninety-five-per-cent below average. The result is that the Northeast has become extremely combustible. Typically, the region’s wildfire season is in April and May, but maps of recent fires in Maine, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island resemble maps of California in August, with hundreds of red dots. The Associated Press reported that Massachusetts typically has around fifteen wildland fires each October; this October, there have been about two hundred ... For thousands of years, before European settlement, the Northeast burned frequently. “Historically, for as long as we have records, fire was always around,” Stephen Pyne told me. “So it’s not that the Northeast doesn’t burn. It’s just that we’ve eliminated the conditions and now we may be restoring some of those conditions” ... for more than a century the Northeast has practiced near-total fire suppression even in landscapes that might benefit from fire. Now, as Neil Pederson, a senior ecologist at Harvard Forest, in Massachusetts, told me, “we do have to get more used to fire. We have to think about fire more often.”
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-lede/the-northeast-is-becoming-fire-country?World’s 1.5C climate target ‘deader than a doornail’, experts say
The internationally agreed goal to keep the world’s temperature rise below 1.5C is now “deader than a doornail” [with] 2024 on track to be at least 1.5C (2.7F) hotter than pre-industrial times, underlining it as the warmest year on record, beating a mark set just last year. The past 10 consecutive years have already been the hottest 10 years ever recorded ... “The goal to avoid exceeding 1.5C is deader than a doornail. It’s almost impossible to avoid at this point because we’ve just waited too long to act,” said Zeke Hausfather, climate research lead at Stripe and a research scientist at Berkeley Earth ... “I never thought 1.5C was a conceivable goal. I thought it was a pointless thing,” said Gavin Schmidt, a climate scientist at NASA. “I’m totally unsurprised, like almost all climate scientists, that we are shooting past it at a rapid clip. But it was extremely galvanizing, so I was wrong about that. Maybe it is useful; maybe people do need impossible targets. You shouldn’t ask scientists how to galvanize the world because clearly we don’t have a fucking clue. People haven’t got a magic set of words to keep us to 1.5C.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/nov/18/climate-crisis-world-temperature-target
see also https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/nov/20/the-climate-crisis-in-charts-how-2024-has-set-unwanted-new-recordsRapid shift in methane carbon isotopes suggests microbial emissions drove record high atmospheric methane growth 2020–2022
The growth rate of the atmospheric abundance of methane (CH4) reached a record high of 15.4 ppb yr between 2020 and 2022 ... 85% of CH4 growth during 2007–2020 was due to increased microbial emissions [includes permafrost collapse] ... with no increase in fossil CH4 emissions required to match observations ... observed by multiple long-term monitoring programs: Max Planck Institute, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, and Tohoku University and National Institute of Polar Research, which have independent sampling schemes, analytical techniques, and data processing and quality protocols. [Implies that CH4 emissions are now past any possibility of control.]
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2411212121Fossil fuel CO2 emissions increase again in 2024
Despite the urgent need to cut emissions to slow climate change, the researchers say there is still “no sign” that the world has reached a peak in fossil CO2 emissions. With projected emissions from land-use change (such as deforestation) of 4.2 billion tonnes, total CO2 emissions are projected to be 41.6 billion tonnes in 2024, up from 40.6 billion tonnes last year ... both fossil and land-use change CO2 emissions are set to rise, with drought conditions exacerbating emissions from deforestation and forest degradation fires during the El Niño climate event of 2023-2024. With over 40 billion tonnes released each year at present, the level of CO2 in the atmosphere continues to rise -- driving increasingly dangerous global warming.
https://globalcarbonbudget.org/fossil-fuel-co2-emissions-increase-again-in-2024Fossil fuel emissions to hit new record in 2024 – researchers
Planet-warming carbon dioxide emissions from oil, gas and coal rose to a new record high this year, according to preliminary research Wednesday that found no sign the world was moving away from fossil fuels as planned. Nations gathering in Azerbaijan for crunch UN climate talks [COP 29] have pledged to “transition away” from fossil fuels and aim to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial times. But oil, gas and coal emissions continue to rise, according to the new findings from an international network of scientists ... global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels [rose] 0.8 percent in 2024 compared to last year, reaching a record of 37.4 billion tonnes ... This leaves the world with an available “budget” of 235 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions for a coin toss chance of curbing warming to 1.5C, scientists said, in an assessment that takes into account the current level of warming, as well as the future effects of other greenhouse gases. That translates to six years at the current rate of CO2 emissions.
https://globalnation.inquirer.net/255324/fossil-fuel-emissions-to-hit-new-record-in-2024-researchers
see also https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/nov/13/no-sign-of-promised-fossil-fuel-transition-as-emissions-hit-new-highExtreme heat ravages Greece's mussel harvest
After a summer of scorching heat and warming waters, it was "as if they boiled in their own environment", he says. "Twenty-five years in mussel farming, we did not expect - we could not imagine - this," Sougioultzis said aboard his boat in the Thermaic Gulf near Thessaloniki in northern Greece, the country's main mussel producing region. "Any damage we had in the past was manageable. This year it looks like climate change is here. The climate crisis is here."
https://www.euronews.com/2021/09/17/uk-climate-change-greece-musselsMeat, oil and pesticide industry lobbyists turned out in record numbers at Cop16
In total 1,261 business and industry delegates registered for Cop16 in Cali, Colombia, which ended in disarray and without significant progress on a number of key issues including nature funding, monitoring biodiversity loss and work on reducing environmentally harmful business subsidies. The number is more than double the 613 present at the UN’s previous biodiversity conference in 2022 ... business and industry increased disproportionately. Industry groups working in pharmaceuticals, oil and gas, agrochemicals, food and beverage processing and tech all had more people registered to attend.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/nov/13/meat-oil-and-pesticide-industry-lobbyists-turned-out-in-record-numbers-at-cop16
see also https://www.euronews.com/green/2024/11/04/nobody-should-be-okay-with-this-cop16-ends-in-confusion-with-no-consensus-on-nature-fundinJellyfish could be one marine creature that benefits from climate change
A study by researchers at Germany’s Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) looked at eight different species of Arctic jellyfish. They exposed them to rising water temperatures, sea ice retreat and other changing environmental conditions through computer models. Scientists found that by the second half of the century, seven of the eight species could expand their habitat polewards under these conditions. Simulations showed that the lion’s mane jellyfish - one of the biggest stinging jellyfish- in particular could nearly triple the size of its current habitat. Climate change could mean an ocean dominated by jellyfish ... these factors could mean a shift from a diverse marine ecosystem dominated by fish to an ocean full of jellyfish. Many researchers are already warning of impending ‘ocean jellification’.
https://www.euronews.com/green/2024/05/17/jellyfish-could-be-one-marine-creature-that-benefits-from-climate-changeWorld is already becoming dangerously overheated, warns WMO
The latest WMO Global State of the Climate report for 2024 shows that the last decade was the warmest on record. It's exactly what scientists had predicted, according to Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. "It's not a surprise. And we have to recognise that scientists have been marking this for many years — more than 30 years in fact — and that what is a surprise is the slowness to react," said Saulo. The WMO report follows the latest data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), which last week declared that 2024 will be the hottest year on record.
https://www.euronews.com/green/2024/11/11/world-is-already-becoming-dangerously-overheated-warns-wmoAtmospheric Rivers Are Shifting Northward
Atmospheric rivers—the massive bands of water vapor that deliver crucial rainfall to regions worldwide—are steadily moving toward Earth's poles ... The implications of this geographic shift are far-reaching. Regions that historically relied on atmospheric rivers for their water supply, such as California, where these systems provide up to half the annual rainfall, may face increasing uncertainty. Meanwhile, higher-latitude areas like British Columbia and Alaska are experiencing more frequent deluges, leading to heightened flood risks and potential infrastructure challenges ... The study identifies cooling trends in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean as a primary driver of this poleward migration. This cooling, often associated with La Niña conditions [pushes] these rivers of moisture toward higher latitudes. For communities in subtropical regions [which] depend on these systems for filling reservoirs and sustaining agriculture may face more frequent and severe droughts as their reliable moisture source becomes increasingly erratic ... This shift also poses concerns for the Arctic region, where increased moisture from atmospheric rivers can accelerate sea ice melt [and] further amplify global warming.
https://www.newsweek.com/atmospheric-rivers-are-shifting-northward-us-west-coast-faces-impacts-1974483
reporting on a study at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adq0604In a Record, All but Two U.S. States Are in Drought
“Drought in many parts of the country and the world is becoming more frequent, longer and more severe,” said Erica Fleishman, director of the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute and a professor at Oregon State University ... Even after Hurricane Helene dropped huge amounts of destructive rain across the Southeast, the region is experiencing drought. Not much rain has fallen since the storm and warmer temperatures mean higher evaporation rates and drier soils. Drought doesn’t just come from a lack of precipitation like rain or snow. Drought conditions are driven by abnormally high temperatures that can quickly suck moisture from the atmosphere and the ground. Even if the total amount of precipitation stays the same or increases a bit, drought can occur. That is especially true as rain events get more episodic, with heavier deluges over a smaller number of events. When all the water comes at once, it’s more difficult for soil to soak it up or for water storage to contain it.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/04/climate/united-states-record-drought.htmlKey Colorado River basins could be at a tipping point: Study
Six key watersheds along the Colorado River have become increasingly vulnerable to drought and could be nearing a point of no return, a new study has found. These basins, located in Colorado’s “Western Slope” region — the part of the state west of the Continental Divide — face a critical situation in which traditional water delivery capabilities may no longer be available, according to the study ... The researchers — from Cornell University and Utrecht University in the Netherlands — paired the Colorado river’s current planning model with a new modeling framework that created hundreds of thousands of streamflow scenarios, under historical and climate-change conditions. Their results raised concerns by indicating that vulnerability analyses that rely only on historical records might be severely underestimating the potential impacts of drought events.
https://thehill.com/policy/equilibrium-sustainability/4990948-colorado-river-watersheds-vulnerability/
reporting on a study at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024EF004841Lake Powell Faces Sediment Crisis: '30,000 Dump Truck Loads' per Day
Lake Powell, an iconic centerpiece of the Colorado River Basin and the second-largest reservoir in the United States, is facing an escalating crisis as decades of sediment buildup threaten its future. Created in 1963 by constructing the Glen Canyon Dam, Lake Powell was intended to be a critical water storage reservoir for the arid western United States ... "Sedimentation is a very serious problem at Lake Powell," [said] Eric Balken, executive director of the GCI ... "When Glen Canyon Dam was built, the Bureau of Reclamation told the public it wouldn't silt in for 700-1,000 years. Now we know that's not true ... we could see major sediment problems in the next decade." This sediment buildup has triggered a cascade of impacts throughout the Colorado River ecosystem. Toxic heavy metals like arsenic and lead are trapped within these sediments rather than flowing out to sea. As water levels drop as a result of prolonged drought, concentrations of these harmful materials increase, posing greater risks to fish, wildlife and people. Downstream, beaches at the river's mouth are eroding, as sand, meant to replenish coastal areas, remains trapped in Lake Powell and Lake Mead, another struggling reservoir further along the river. "If nothing is done, the dam will silt in, and water delivery to the 25 million people downstream will be compromised. It's just a matter of time."
https://www.newsweek.com/lake-powell-faces-sediment-crisis-30000-dump-truck-loads-1979956Conventional agriculture increases global warming while decreasing system sustainability
Intensification of farming since the Green Revolution has led to large increases in yield but has also increased anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Here, by providing a global comprehensive cradle-to-gate quantification from seed to yield, we show that the global warming potential (GWP) of conventional agriculture of grain crops has increased eightfold from 1961 to 2020, whereas the sustainability index (SI) has decreased threefold. Tillage, synthetic fertilizers and irrigation together accounted for 90% of the increased GWP, linked to tenfold increases in fertilization and groundwater use and more than doubled mechanized and irrigated areas.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02170-4Greenhouse gas concentrations surge again to new record in 2023
According to a report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO): CO2 concentrations have increased 11.4 % in just 20 years ("faster than any time experienced during human existence") ... Long lifetime of CO2 in atmosphere locks in future temperature increase ... El Niño and vegetation fires fuel surge in later part of 2023 ... Effectiveness of carbon sinks like forests cannot be taken for granted ... “Another year. Another record. This should set alarm bells ringing among decision makers. We are clearly off track ... a real impact on our lives and our planet,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/greenhouse-gas-concentrations-surge-again-new-record-2023
reporting on a study at https://wmo.int/publication-series/wmo-greenhouse-gas-bulletin-no-20Would abandoning false hope help us to tackle the climate crisis?
Climate instability and nature extinction are making the Earth an uglier, riskier and more uncertain place [and] worse could be in store as we approach or pass a series of dangerous tipping points ... Yet, apparently we must still have hope. It is mandatory. Change is impossible, we are told, without positive thinking and a belief in a better future ... But what if it is hope that is the problem? What if hope is the antidepressant that has been keeping us all comfortably numb when we have every right to be sad, worried, stirred to action or just plain angry? ... New research reveals that people who are experiencing climate-related distress are more likely to engage in collective action. History, by contrast, shows that manufactured optimism can lead to complacency and the shirking of responsibilities ... If you are not alarmed at what is happening to the forests, oceans, ice-caps, cities, farms and supermarkets, then you are not paying enough attention. That may be due to fear, doubt or ignorance. Or perhaps you are enveloped in that insidious, complacent long-term form of hope that has been diverting our gaze, giving us pause, slowing action and normalising the degradation of our home planet. Essentially this can be boiled down to the fact that we are leaving our problems to our children.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/24/we-need-a-dash-of-hope-but-is-too-much-diverting-our-gaze-from-the-perils-of-the-climate-crisis
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s44168-024-00172-8Future atmospheric rivers could bring catastrophic ocean level rise off the West Coast, simulation study shows
The same carbon dioxide that is helping to warm the planet is also making the oceans more acidic—and ocean levels around the world have been rising as ice from the polar regions has been melting. Together such changes are expected to have a major impact on atmospheric rivers (ARs). Most models suggest they will not only happen more often but they will bring much more rain and higher winds. In this new study, the research team notes that there is another impact from ARs that has not been very well studied—ocean level rise along the part of the shoreline where ARs come ashore, which is similar in some respects to storm surges from hurricanes. To find out what sort of ocean level rise North America might expect, they created models using data from past ARs [showing] that future ARs could lead to a rise in sea levels by as much as 200% compared to those in the past.
https://phys.org/news/2024-10-future-atmospheric-rivers-catastrophic-ocean.html
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01774-0Trees and land absorbed almost no CO2 last year. Is nature’s carbon sink failing?
“We’re seeing cracks in the resilience of the Earth’s systems ... terrestrial ecosystems are losing their carbon store and carbon uptake capacity ... oceans are also showing signs of instability,” Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, told an event at New York Climate Week in September. “Nature has so far balanced our abuse. This is coming to an end” ... In the absence of [currently nonexistent] technology that can remove atmospheric carbon on a large scale, the Earth’s vast forests, grasslands, peat bogs and oceans are the only option for absorbing human carbon pollution ... But rising temperatures, increased extreme weather and droughts are pushing the ecosystems into uncharted territory. The kind of rapid land sink collapse seen in 2023 has not been factored into most climate models. If it continues, it raises the prospect of rapid global heating beyond what those models have predicted ... Only one major tropical rainforest – the Congo basin – remains a strong carbon sink that removes more than it releases into the atmosphere ... the Amazon basin is experiencing a record-breaking drought, with rivers at an all-time low. Expansion of agriculture has turned tropical rainforests in south-east Asia into a net source of emissions in recent years ... “In the northern hemisphere, where you have more than half of CO2 uptake, we have seen a decline trend in absorption for eight years [and] there is no good reason to believe it will bounce back ... None of these models have factored in losses like extreme factors which have been observed, such as the wildfires in Canada last year that amounted to six months of US fossil emissions. Two years before, we wrote a paper that found that Siberia also lost the same amount of carbon,” says Ciais. The consequences for climate targets are stark.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/14/nature-carbon-sink-collapse-global-heating-models-emissions-targets-evidence-aoe
First Dog cartoon from https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2024/oct/28/scientists-have-discovered-that-earths-carbon-sinks-are-not-really-carbon-sinking-at-the-momentEurope’s biggest ‘nerve centres’ at increasing risk from climate change
Half of the largest cities on the planet will be at risk of one or more climate hazards by 2050 ... Floods, heatwaves, cyclones and water stress will increasingly pummel these populous hubs unless greenhouse gas emissions are brought under control ... “The cities in our study - nerve centres of the world economy that contribute almost 20 per cent of global GDP and are home to 440 million people - are particularly exposed to climate risk,” says LSEG’s global head of sustainable investment research, Jaakko Kooroshy. “Impacts are already beginning to materialise at only 1.3°C of warming” ... LSEG predicts that global heating will reach 2.6°C under current policies ... When it comes to emissions cuts, the EU is not doing enough to protect its cities [and] the bloc will surpass its 1.5°C aligned emissions budget by 2035.
https://www.euronews.com/green/2024/11/01/amsterdam-london-madrid-europes-biggest-nerve-centres-at-increasing-risk-from-climate-chanThawing Permafrost Adds to Near-Term Global Warming
An international team, led by researchers at Stockholm University, found that from 2000 to 2020, carbon dioxide uptake by the land was largely offset by emissions from it. Overall, they concluded that the region has been a net contributor to global warming in recent decades ... Researchers found the region, especially the forests, took up a fraction more carbon dioxide than it released [but] this uptake was largely offset by carbon dioxide emitted from lakes and rivers, as well as from fires that burned both forest and tundra. They also found that the region’s lakes and wetlands were strong sources of methane during those two decades. Compared to carbon dioxide, methane can drive significant climate warming in short timescales ... The findings suggest the net change in greenhouse gases helped warm the planet over the 20-year period.
https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/nasa-helps-find-thawing-permafrost-adds-to-near-term-global-warming/
reporting on a study at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GB007969PFAS mixtures more toxic than single compounds, suggesting higher danger
Mixtures of different types of PFAS compounds are often more toxic than single chemicals, first-of-its-kind research finds ... but regulatory agencies largely look at the chemicals in isolation from one another, meaning regulators are probably underestimating the health threat. “PFAS needs to be regulated as mixtures,” said Diana Aga, a study co-author ... PFAS are a class of about 15,000 [endocrine disruptor] compounds ... they have been linked to cancer, birth defects, decreased immunity, high cholesterol, kidney disease and a range of other serious health problems ... PFOA and PFOS are two of the most common and dangerous PFAS chemicals, research over recent decades has found, and one of those compounds is very frequently found in contaminated human blood or drinking water. The sum of those chemicals can present a danger, even if they are [individually] below the Environmental Protection Agency’s drinking-water limits of 4ppt (parts per trillion) ... The study also looked at PFAS combinations found in sewage sludge used as fertilizer and spread on cropland as a cheap fertilizer.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/nov/01/pfas-mixtures-water-toxicMore than 1 in 3 tree species are at risk of going extinct, new analysis shows
The report for the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s Red List [showed] that of the 47,282 tree species assessed, at least 16,425 are at risk of going extinct — more than double the number of all birds, mammals, reptiles and amphibians threatened with extinction combined. Planet-warming fossil fuel pollution is threatening the trees, which suck that pollution out of the atmosphere, meaning their loss is exacerbating the climate crisis. The Red List is considered the most comprehensive global source for threatened species and extinction information.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/28/climate/tree-species-threatened-extinction/index.htmlOne-quarter of World’s Crops Threatened by Water Risks
One out of every 11 people in the world grapples with hunger. A hidden and growing driver is lack of water [but] one-quarter of the world’s crops are grown in areas where the water supply is highly stressed, highly unreliable or both. Mounting risks like climate change and increased competition for water are threatening water supplies and, in turn, food security. Rice, wheat and corn — which provide more than half the world’s food calories — are particularly vulnerable [and] food demands are increasing: Research shows the world will need to produce 56% more food calories in 2050 than it did in 2010.
https://www.wri.org/insights/growing-water-risks-food-cropsThe World’s Carbon Sinks Are on Fire
Forests are burning up. Global carbon emissions from forest fires have increased 60 percent since 2001, according to a new study ... Canada and Siberia were by far the biggest contributors. Researchers revealed that one type of boreal forest almost tripled its annual carbon emissions between 2001 and 2023 ... Global warming has brought more extreme hot and dry conditions and more lightning storms that can set trees ablaze. Last year, wildfires in the boreal forests of Canada produced more carbon emissions than the burning of fossil fuels in all but the three largest polluters: China, India and the United States [and] the world keeps getting hotter. Last year was the hottest year on record, a record that could be broken in 2024.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/17/climate/carbon-fires-forests-global-warming.html
reporting on a study at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adl5889Helene and Milton upended a key part of [US] food supply
[Helene] battered six states, causing billions of dollars in losses to crops, livestock, and aquaculture. Just 13 days later, Milton barreled across Florida, leaving millions without power and hampering ports, feed facilities, and fertilizer plants along the state’s west coast. Preliminary estimates suggest. Helene, one of the nation’s deadliest and costliest hurricanes since Katrina in 2005, upended hundreds of thousands of businesses throughout the Southeast and devastated a wide swath of the region’s agricultural operations. Milton’s impact was more limited, but the two calamities are expected to reduce feed and fertilizer supplies and increase production costs, which could drive up prices for things like chicken and fruit in the months and years to come. The compounding effect of the two storms will create “a direct impact on agricultural production,” said Seungki Lee, an agricultural economist at Ohio State University.
https://grist.org/food-and-agriculture/helene-and-milton-upended-a-key-part-of-the-nations-food-supply‘We don’t know where the tipping point is’: climate expert on potential collapse of Atlantic circulation
Oceanographer Stefan Rahmstorf explains why AMOC breakdown could be catastrophic for both humans and marine life The dangers of a collapse of the main Atlantic Ocean circulation, known as Amoc, have been “greatly underestimated” and would have devastating and irreversible impacts, according to an open letter released at the weekend by 44 experts from 15 countries. One of the signatories, Stefan Rahmstorf, an oceanographer and climatologist who heads the Earth system analysis department at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, explains here why he has recently upgraded his risk assessment of an Amoc breakdown as a result of global heating
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/23/we-dont-know-where-the-tipping-point-is-climate-expert-on-potential-collapse-of-atlantic-circulation
see also https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/rivers-oceans/we-dont-really-consider-it-low-probability-anymore-collapse-of-key-atlantic-current-could-have-catastrophic-impacts-says-oceanographer-stefan-rahmstorfClimate scientists warn Nordic ministers of changing Atlantic Ocean current
More than 40 climate scientists are urging Nordic ministers to prevent global warming from causing a major change in an Atlantic Ocean current, which could trigger abrupt shifts in weather patterns and damage ecosystems. Several studies have suggested that the risk of the Atlantic current changing has been greatly underestimated ... Global subsidies for fossil fuels reached a record $7 trillion in 2022, according to the International Monetary Fund. Such subsidies show there is no credible effort to prevent such a climate disaster.
https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/climate-scientists-warn-nordic-ministers-changing-atlantic-ocean-current-2024-10-21Humanity is on the verge of ‘shattering Earth’s natural limits’, say experts in biodiversity warning
“We are already locked in for significant damage, and we’re heading in a direction that will see more,” says Tom Oliver, professor of applied ecology at the University of Reading ... Since 1970, some studies estimate wildlife populations have declined on average by 73%, with huge numbers lost in the decades and centuries before ... “I think we will, certainly, in the next 15 to 20 years, see continued food crises, and the real risk of multiple breadbasket failures … that’s in addition to a lot of the other risks that might impact us” ... He says we are in an era of mass extinction with “huge uncertainty in where the safe limits are”. Scientists say human activity has pushed the world into the danger zone in seven out of eight indicators of planetary safety.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/21/humanity-earth-natural-limits-biodiversity-warning-cop16-conference-scientists-academicsOver-reliance on land for carbon dioxide removal in net-zero climate pledges
Achieving net-zero climate targets requires some level of carbon dioxide removal. Current assessments focus on tonnes of CO2 removed, without specifying what form these removals will take. Here, we show that countries’ climate pledges require approximately 1 (0.9–1.1) billion ha of land for removals. For over 40% of this area, the pledges envisage the conversion of existing land uses to forests, while the remaining area restores existing ecosystems and land uses ... The results are concerning [and] demonstrate a gap between governments’ expected reliance on land and the role that land can realistically play in climate mitigation. This adds another layer to the observed shortcomings of national climate pledges.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-53466-0Quarter of emergency rooms in Netherlands inaccessible during extreme downpours
Almost a quarter of emergency rooms in the Netherlands become inaccessible during very heavy rain ... at least 17 of the 77 Dutch hospitals that provide emergency care will have accessibility issues in the event of 70 millimeters of rain falling in two hours [and] “these types of showers are occurring more frequently due to the changing climate in the Netherlands,” said Dorien Lugt, an expert on flooding at research agency HKV who calculated future precipitation scenarios with the KNMI ... Several hospitals have already suffered flooding due to heavy rainfall in recent years.
https://nltimes.nl/2024/10/23/quarter-emergency-rooms-netherlands-inaccessible-extreme-downpoursThe mystery of the missing La Niña continues – and we don't know why
An expected shift to cool La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean has been delayed again. Forecasters now project only a weak event to emerge by the end of November, which is likely to limit the cooling influence of the climate pattern on global average temperatures. “I do not know why it has slowed down,” says Michelle L’Heureux at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). “If someone did, we might have been able to predict it” ... A rare “triple-dip” La Niña between 2020 and 2022 gave way to a strong El Niño in 2023 [and] as the El Niño faded and neutral temperatures emerged in May of this year, forecasters projected a rapid shift to La Niña conditions would follow [which] contributed to forecasts for an extreme Atlantic hurricane season [but] a full-blown La Niña still has not emerged ... Some research suggests climate change will make ENSO more variable, but this remains a contentious area of climate science.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2452742-the-mystery-of-the-missing-la-nina-continues-and-we-dont-know-why/Liquefied natural gas carbon footprint is worse than coal
Liquefied natural gas leaves a greenhouse gas footprint that is 33% worse than coal, when processing and shipping are taken into account, according to a new Cornell study. “Natural gas and shale gas are all bad for the climate. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is worse,” said Robert Howarth, author of the study ... The emissions of methane and carbon dioxide released during LNG’s extraction, processing, transportation and storage account for approximately half of its total greenhouse gas footprint, Howarth said. Over 20 years, the carbon footprint for LNG is one-third larger than coal ... Even on a 100-year time scale – a more-forgiving scale than 20 years – the liquefied natural gas carbon footprint equals or still exceeds coal ... Methane is more than 80 times more harmful to the atmosphere than carbon dioxide, so even small emissions can have a large climate impact, Howarth said. That’s why the modern LNG tankers with two- and four-stroke engines have more greenhouse gas emissions than those tankers powered by steam. Regardless of better fuel efficiency and lower carbon dioxide emissions, methane still escapes in the tanker’s exhaust. And significant methane emissions occur in the natural gas liquefication process [so] “liquefied natural gas will always have a bigger climate footprint than the natural gas ... It still ends up substantially worse than coal.”
https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2024/10/liquefied-natural-gas-carbon-footprint-worse-coal
see also https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-19/gas-emissions-worse-than-coal-study-finds/104481570
reporting on a study at https://scijournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ese3.1934Researchers Parse the Future of Plankton in an Ever-Warmer World
Plankton are at the base of the ocean food chain, feeding fish that feed billions of people. They are responsible for half of the world’s oxygen supply and half of our planet’s annual carbon sink ... our changing climate is spurring a sea change ... Climate change is hitting our oceans hard, making them warmer and more acidic, while radically altering currents ... in the long term, plankton numbers may plummet as climate change starves them of nutrients.
https://e360.yale.edu/features/plankton-climate-changeGlobal water crisis leaves half of world food production at risk in next 25 years
Landmark review says urgent action needed to conserve resources and save ecosystems that supply fresh water
More than half the world’s food production will be at risk of failure within the next 25 years as a rapidly accelerating water crisis grips the planet, unless urgent action is taken to conserve water resources and end the destruction of the ecosystems on which our fresh water depends, experts have warned in a landmark review. Half the world’s population already faces water scarcity, and that number is set to rise as the climate crisis worsens, according to a report from the Global Commission on the Economics of Water published on Thursday. Demand for fresh water will outstrip supply by 40% by the end of the decade, because the world’s water systems are being put under “unprecedented stress”, the report found. The commission found that governments and experts have vastly underestimated the amount of water needed for people to have decent lives.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/16/global-water-crisis-food-production-at-risk
see also https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/press-release/half-world-face-severe-water-stress-2030-unless-water-use-decoupled
see also https://watercommission.org/
reporting on a study at https://economicsofwater.watercommission.org/Droughts likely to be even longer in the future due to climate change
Major climate reports may be underselling the risks of rising emissions
Droughts in the coming decades could be longer than projected by current climate models, a new study published Wednesday in Nature warns. The international team of scientists examined potential biases that could skew climate models used to make drought projections under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change midrange and high emissions scenarios. The researchers corrected for the bias by calibrating those models with observations of the longest annual dry spells between 1998 and 2018 ... The new information can help raise awareness of growing drought risks for populations in the affected areas ... “most of the global land will experience an increase in dry extremes in the future. A significant portion of the global population is already living under water stress … creating an urgent situation that demands immediate attention” ... The World Meteorological Organization warned in 2019 about simultaneous wet and dry extremes. Mann said it’s not a contradiction to see both more extreme rainfall and worse drought.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/09/droughts-likely-to-be-even-longer-in-the-future-due-to-climate-change/
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07887-yRivers in Driest Year for Three Decades, U.N. Says
The report highlighted trends that it considered to be deeply concerning, noting that glaciers feeding rivers across many countries experienced their most significant mass loss in the last 50 years. The decline in glacial ice threatens long-term water security for millions globally. The comprehensive "State of Global Water Resources 2023" report examines various water bodies, including rivers, lakes, reservoirs, groundwater, and glaciers, as well as the evaporation of water from land and plants. According to WMO, around 3.6 billion people experience inadequate access to water for at least one month each year—a figure projected to escalate to 5 billion by 2050. Notably, agriculture consumes about 70 per cent of all freshwater drawn from hydrological systems. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said during the release of the report on Monday: "Water is the canary in the coalmine of climate change."
https://www.newsweek.com/rivers-driest-year-three-decades-un-1964903
see also https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/wmo-report-highlights-growing-shortfalls-and-stress-global-water-resources
reporting on a study at https://wmo.int/publication-series/state-of-global-water-resources-2023Earth’s wildlife populations have disappeared at a ‘catastrophic’ rate in the past half-century, new analysis says
Earth’s wildlife populations have fallen on average by a “catastrophic” rate of 73 percent in the past half-century, according to a new analysis the World Wildlife Fund released Wednesday ... Freshwater populations fell by an average of 85 percent, according to the new Living Planet report, while terrestrial populations by 69 percent and marine populations by 56 percent in the five decades between 1970 and 2020. The worst declines were in Latin America and the Caribbean, with a 95 percent average drop, followed by Africa, 76 percent, and Asia and the Pacific, 60 percent. But the report said that is at least partly because in Europe, Central Asia and North America — whose animal populations declined by more than a third — people living there had already wiped out nature on a wide scale by 1970.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/10/09/wildlife-populations-decline-wwf-report/
reporting on a study at https://www.livingplanetindex.org/Insurance 'nightmare' unfolds for Florida homeowners after back-to-back hurricanes
Many victims facing catastrophic losses due to water damage “are just walking away.”
Fresh off the one-two punch of Helene and Milton, hurricane victims in Florida — even those with insurance — face a challenging recovery ... For the vast majority of affected residents, the financial loss from the storms will be nearly total [because] flooding caused much of the property damage — and most homeowners insurance policies do not cover any flood impact. [But even] for those who do have insurance, the combination of the storms is set to create major complications. The insurance industry is categorizing Hurricane Helene as an almost entirely flood-driven event. While Hurricane Milton was both a wind and rain event, experts say property owners who lacked flood insurance may not be protected from water damage from Milton either, thanks to the way many insurance policies are written these days ... adjusters will have to determine whether any water damage from Milton came in “from below,” which could then be classified as flood damage; or "above,” as a result of wind-driven rain, Friedlander said. Yet even in the latter case, coverage may be denied if it was determined the rain intrusion was the result of pre-existing maintenance failures, like a leaky roof or improper insulation. Many policies also exclude wind-driven rain as a matter of course. For victims facing catastrophic losses due to water damage from either storm, many “are just walking away,” Friedlander said. “Most people can’t realistically afford to rebuild their homes” ... even victims who do have flood insurance are learning they are facing a financial calamity ... reforms passed in 2022 aimed to limit a flood of contingency cases the insurance industry said had been making it impossible to operate in the state [so] now, with the threat of legal action reduced, many insurance companies may be more incentivized to make denials essentially automatic ... "there’s very strong motivation to find every possible way they can” to deny a claim.
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/hurricane-milton-helene-insurance-nightmares-torment-florida-residents-rcna175088Our dystopian climate isn’t just about fires and floods. It’s about society fracturing
The climate crisis, above all, requires the return of that solidarity. That’s because there’s no way to keep it from getting worse without joint public action: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change tells us we have five years left to cut emissions in half, which means it will not be accomplished one Tesla at a time ... there’s also no way to survive it, even in its current form, without intense cooperation. To give one example: Florida’s insurance system is clearly breaking down, as one storm after another drives private insurers out of the state. As the Tampa newspaper put it in June: “As the crisis escalates, state leaders are desperately trying to convince insurance companies to stick around. States are offering them more flexibility to raise premiums or drop certain homes from coverage, fast-tracking rate revisions and making it harder for residents to sue their insurance company.” But as that seawall begins to fail, “a flood of new policyholders are joining state-backed insurance ‘plans of last resort’, leaving states to assume more of the risk on behalf of residents who can’t find coverage in the private sector.” Indeed, so many people are swamping the “state-backed insurance plans” they’re becoming overloaded with risk.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/oct/09/climate-crisis-hurricane-electionCatastrophically warm predictions are more plausible than previously thought, say climate scientists
What will the future climate be like? EPFL climate scientists find that roughly a third of the models are not doing a good job at reproducing existing sea surface temperature data ... "We show that the carbon sensitive models, the ones that predict much stronger heating than the most probable IPCC estimate, are plausible and should be taken seriously," says Athanasios (Thanos) Nenes, EPFL professor of the Laboratory of Atmospheric Processes and their Impacts, affiliate researcher at the Foundation for Research and Technology Hellas, and author of the study together with graduate student Lucile Ricard. "In other words, the current measures to reduce carbon emissions, which are based on lower carbon sensitivity estimates, may not be enough to curb a catastrophically hot future," says Ricard ... Nenes recalls giving a piano concert in Athens in the middle of the summer almost thirty years ago, "The temperatures back then peaked between 33 and 36 degrees Celsius and were considered to be among the highest temperatures of the year. I'll never forget how difficult it was to play the piano in that heat. [But] Greece is now often plagued with summer temperatures above 40 degrees. Forest fires are commonplace, even invading cities, recently burning neighborhoods that I used to live in. And it will only get worse. The planet is literally burning. Temperatures worldwide are consecutively, year after year, breaking records with all of its consequences."
https://phys.org/news/2024-10-catastrophically-plausible-previously-thought-climate.html
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-50813-zScientists have said that we can cool the planet back down. Now they’re not so sure.
For years, scientists and world leaders have pinned their hopes for the future on a hazy promise — that, even if temperatures soar far above global targets, the planet can eventually be cooled back down. This phenomenon, known as a temperature “overshoot,” has been baked into most climate models and plans for the future. In theory, it could be brought back down by pulling carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere. But a new study published Wednesday in the journal Nature shows that blowing past climate goals is more dangerous than it originally seemed. Even if temperatures come back down to 1.5 degrees C, the authors found, many climate impacts will persist for centuries to millennia. And as the planet teeters closer to that temperature limit, overshoot is looking more and more likely ... The extinction of species that could result from these massive planetary shifts, they added, are also not reversible. “Excess deaths are not reversible,” said Rogelj. “If you have a couple of decades in which large proportions of vulnerable people are exposed to extreme heat in a society that is not adapted to this — that’s not reversible.” At the same time, scientists warn that cooling the planet might not even be technically feasible ... One thing, scientists say, is clear: Humanity is headed for a world with more than 1.5 degrees C of warming. The planet has already experienced a 12-month period during which temperatures exceeded that limit, and by the early 2030s, it will be above that mark for multiple years at a time. Overshoot is a way of softening that blow, of making it seem like the world’s climate target is still within reach. But sooner or later, world leaders will have to wrestle with the fact that the most famous climate goal is impossible to meet.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/10/09/overshoot-climate-targets-one-point-five/
see also https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/carbon-removal-no-solution-if-world-overshoots-warming-target-scientists-say-2024-10-09/
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08020-9Heat waves thawing Arctic permafrost
In the northernmost region of the earth the arctic permafrost is melting at an accelerated rate [that] happens to coincide with an extreme heat wave that occurred in northern Siberia in 2020 in which temperatures reportedly reached 38 degrees Celsius (more than 100 degrees Fahrenheit) - record-breaking temperatures for the Arctic region. "The strong increase in thaw slump activity due to the Siberian heatwave shows that carbon mobilization from permafrost soils can respond sharply and non-linearly to increasing temperatures," asserts the paper's lead author, Philipp Bernhard, Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich ... Arctic permafrost reportedly encases approximately 1.5 trillion metric tons of organic carbon, about twice as much as currently contained in the atmosphere. Bernhard agrees that the potential risks associated with this type of carbon mobilization is "a major, but largely neglected component of the Arctic carbon cycle."
https://phys.org/news/2022-07-arctic-permafrost.html
reporting on a study at https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/16/2819/2022/The 2024 state of the climate report: Perilous times on planet Earth
https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/advance-article/doi/10.1093/biosci/biae087/7808595Revealed: how the fossil fuel industry helps spread anti-protest laws across the US
Lobbyists working for major North American oil and gas companies were key architects of anti-protest laws that increase penalties and could lead to non-violent environmental and climate activists being imprisoned up to 10 years ... to deter people frustrated by government failure to tackle the climate crisis from peacefully [protesting]. “Draft bill attached,” wrote a lobbyist representing two influential fossil fuel trade groups to the lead counsel for the West Virginia state energy committee in January 2020. The law, which carries a maximum 10-year prison sentence, was later used to charge at least eight peaceful climate protesters including six senior citizens ... companies and lawmakers sought to increase the threat of criminal action against activists to protect oil and gas expansion – even as deadly and destructive extreme weather events hit communities nationwide ... suggest that the right to peaceful protest is under attack in the US – much like in other major democracies including the UK, Germany, Canada and Australia. These countries, which are the most responsible for greenhouse gas emissions, continue to back fossil fuel expansion fueling climate breakdown while cracking down on activists and groups sounding the alarm.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/sep/26/anti-protest-laws-fossil-fuel-lobbyAntarctica is turning green at an alarming rate, satellite images show
Parts of icy Antarctica are turning green with plant life at an alarming rate as the region is gripped by extreme heat events, according to new research, sparking concerns about the changing landscape on this vast continent. Scientists used satellite imagery and data to analyze vegetation levels on the Antarctic Peninsula, a long mountain chain that points north to the tip of South America, and which has been warming much faster than the global average. They found plant life — mostly mosses — had increased in this harsh environment more than 10-fold over the past four decades ... In March 2022, temperatures in some parts of the continent reached up to 70 degrees above normal, the most extreme temperature departures ever recorded in this part of the planet. As fossil fuel pollution continues to heat up the world, Antarctica will keep on warming and this greening is only likely to accelerate, the scientists predict.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/04/climate/antarctica-greening-vegetation-satellite-images/index.htmlI Wasn’t Prepared to Be a Climate Refugee
A climate advocate learns firsthand on the price of climate change in our lives
Less than two months after we moved [to the “climate haven” of Asheville NC] we were forced to leave ... the hurricane made its way inland from the Gulf of Mexico through Florida, Georgia and South Carolina. Along its path, it ripped apart community after community. And then it hit western Appalachia. At 2,000 feet of elevation and 300 miles from the coast, Asheville is a place where people went to get away from devastating hurricanes ... It was hard to get information [because] within hours, we lost power, Internet and even cell service ... I sat in my car to listen to the local radio station’s updates. That’s how I learned that the water wasn’t safe to drink. The treatment plant was under eight feet of water and the distribution pipes had washed away ... this was an unnatural disaster. Climate change, caused by burning fossil fuels, is making the planet hotter. The ocean absorbs much of this excess heat. As Hurricane Helene approached the coast of Florida, it gathered energy from unusually warm ocean water. Before the storm hit the coast, it went through a “rapid intensification” that transformed it into a major hurricane ... now I know firsthand that no place is safe from the climate crisis.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/hurricane-helene-made-me-a-climate-change-refugee/Arctic Sea Ice Near Historic Low; Antarctic Ice Continues Decline
This year, Arctic sea ice shrank to a minimal extent of 1.65 million square miles (4.28 million square kilometers). That’s about 750,000 square miles (1.94 million square kilometers) below the 1981 to 2010 end-of-summer average of 2.4 million square miles (6.22 million square kilometers). The difference in ice cover spans an area larger than the state of Alaska ... Sea ice in the southern polar regions was also low in 2024. Around Antarctica, scientists are tracking near record-low sea ice at a time when it should have been growing extensively during the Southern Hemisphere’s darkest and coldest months ... 2024 prolongs a recent downward trend [which] hints at a long-term shift in conditions in the Southern Ocean, likely resulting from global climate change.
https://www.nasa.gov/earth/arctic-sea-ice-near-historic-low-antarctic-ice-continues-declineHow future heat waves at sea could devastate UK marine ecosystems and fisheries
The oceans are warming at an alarming rate. 2023 shattered records across the world's oceans, and was the first time that ocean temperatures exceeded 1°C over pre-industrial levels. This led to the emergence of a series of marine heat wave events across both hemispheres, from the waters around Japan, around South America, and across the wider North Atlantic. Marine heat waves are periods of extremely warm sea temperatures that can form in quite localized hot spots but also span large parts of ocean basins. By definition, they have to last five days to be classed as a marine heat wave, but some major events have lasted months—even years, in an extreme case. Notable events have led to catastrophic impacts on marine ecosystems, the economy and coastal communities. For example, coral bleaching in the tropics has caused huge losses to the tourism industry, mass mortalities or major shifts in fisheries have impacted fishing industries worldwide, and vast losses of sea grass meadows and kelp forests have decimated countries' natural capital.
https://phys.org/news/2024-10-future-sea-devastate-uk-marine.htmlWorld’s oceans near critical acidification level
The report by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) details nine factors that are crucial for regulating the planet’s ability to sustain life. In six of these areas, the safe limit has already been exceeded in recent years as a result of human activity. The crucial threshold for ocean acidification could soon become the seventh ... “As CO2 emissions increase, more of it dissolves in sea water… making the oceans more acidic,” Boris Sakschewski, one of the lead authors, told reporters. “Even with rapid emission cuts, some level of continued acidification may be unavoidable due to the CO2 already emitted and the time it takes for the ocean system to respond. Therefore, breaching the ocean acidification boundary appears inevitable within the coming years.” All nine planetary boundaries are “interconnected” so breaching one crucial limit can destabilise Earth’s entire life system, Sakschewski said.
https://www.jamaicaobserver.com/2024/09/23/worlds-oceans-near-critical-acidification-level-report/
reporting on a study at https://www.planetaryhealthcheck.org/storyblok-cdn/f/301438/x/03be75c484/planetaryhealthcheck2024_report.pdfGrim outlook for Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier
Tidal action on the underside of the Thwaites Glacier in the Antarctic will “inexorably” accelerate melting this century, according to new research by British and American scientists ... could destabilize the entire West Antarctic ice sheet, leading to its eventual collapse. The massive glacier—which is roughly the size of Florida—is of particular interest to scientists because of the rapid speed at which it is changing and the impact its loss would have on sea levels (the reason for its “Doomsday” moniker). It also acts as an anchor holding back the West Antarctic ice sheet ... Rob Larter, a marine geophysicist who contributed to the research, said in a news release. “Our findings indicate it is set to retreat further and faster.”
https://time.com/7022831/thwaites-glacier-doomsday-melting-faster-antarctic-ice-sheet-new-research/
reporting on a study at https://thwaitesglacier.org/news/grim-outlook-antarcticas-thwaites-glacierScientists have captured Earth’s climate over the last 485 million years. Here’s the surprising place we stand now
Modern humans appeared after 50 million years of falling temperatures that led to the coldest period recorded
The timeline ... shows the intimate link between carbon dioxide and global temperatures and reveals that the world was in a much warmer state for most of the history of complex animal life. At its hottest, the study suggests, the Earth’s average temperature reached 96.8 degrees Fahrenheit (36 degrees Celsius) — far higher than the historic 58.96 F (14.98 C) the planet hit last year [and] illustrates how swift and dramatic temperature shifts were associated with many of the world’s worst moments ... At no point in the nearly half-billion years that Judd and her colleagues analyzed did the Earth change as fast as it is changing now [so] “what we’re doing now is unprecedented” ... makes clear that the conditions humans are accustomed to are quite different from those that have dominated our planet’s history ... global temperatures could reach nearly 62.6 F (17 C) by the end of the century — a level not seen in the timeline since the Miocene epoch, more than 5 million years ago.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/09/19/earth-temperature-global-warming-planet
reporting on a study at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adk3705‘Climate Havens’ Don’t Exist
The worst damage from Hurricane Helene came in areas that were expected to be relatively immune to the effects of climate change
Many of the places where people died were far away from the coast, like Asheville. Typically, by the time storms get there, they are a lot weaker because they no longer have access to the warm ocean waters that power them ... “the Atlantic Ocean and, in this case, the Gulf of Mexico have been abundantly warm this season ... And that warm water, near the ideal temperature for a bath, helped provide the energy Helene needed to rapidly intensify” ... U.S. counties that regularly get hit by hurricanes, face major wildfires and floods and swelter under punishing heat have also been some of the most popular places to move [because] people tend to weigh economic concerns and lifestyle preferences more than potential for catastrophe. But that equation may be starting to change.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/01/climate/asheville-climate-change-flood.htmlForest fire size amplifies postfire land surface warming
Climate warming has caused a widespread increase in extreme fire weather, making forest fires longer-lived and larger ... fire size persistently amplified decade-long postfire land surface warming in summer per unit burnt area [and] fire-size-enhanced warming may affect the success and composition of postfire stand regeneration as well as permafrost degradation, presenting previously overlooked, additional feedback effects to future climate and fire dynamics.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07918-8Extreme wildfires doubled over past two decades: Study
The intensity of the 20 most extreme blazes in each year had also more than doubled—a rate that "appears to be accelerating", the study said. "I expected to see some increase, but the rate of increase alarmed me," said the study's lead author Calum Cunningham from the University of Tasmania in Australia. "The effects of climate change are no longer just something of the future. We are now witnessing the manifestation of a drying and heating atmosphere" ... forests also absorb carbon from the atmosphere and the loss of trees to fire releases that CO2 back into the atmosphere where it contributes to global warming. This creates a "feedback effect" on the planet, said Cunningham. "It also blankets large regions in smoke, causing major health effects including many more premature deaths than are caused by the flames themselves."
https://phys.org/news/2024-06-extreme-wildfires-decades.html
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-024-02452-2Zillow home listings to feature climate risk, insurance data
Mindful of increasing risks from extreme weather events such as hurricanes, Zillow will combine climate risk scores, interactive maps and insurance information on its home listings, the company announced this morning. This step gives prospective buyers their first combined look at climate risk information with home insurance recommendations. Due in part to climate change-related trends in extreme weather events, such as hurricanes in Florida and California wildfires, the price of home insurance has been increasing in many parts of the country.
https://www.axios.com/2024/09/26/climate-risk-zillow-insurance-home-listingsBrazil’s ‘Paradise’ on fire: ‘The forest is burning. Animals are burning. Everything’s burning’
River Madeira’s waters have fallen to their lowest level since the 1960s and the skies overhead have filled with smoke from wildfires that are raging across Brazil. “I’ve never seen it like this,” said Souza, a 44-year-old subsistence farmer as her canoe glided through the murk towards her smog-shrouded hamlet, chaperoned by river dolphins whose aquatic home is growing smaller by the day ... This year’s drought – which authorities have called the most intense and widespread in Brazil’s history – has brought misery to those who live along the Madeira, and other major Amazon waterways, including the Solimões and the Negro ... “The river’s so dry. There’s so much sand. So many rocks … This is the first year we’ve faced something like this,” Guimarães complained as the Madeira hit its lowest level since 1967.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/28/brazils-paradise-on-fire-the-forest-is-burning-animals-are-burning-trees-are-burning-everythings-burningEcuador cuts power in half of its provinces amid historic drought
Ecuador is gripped by the worst drought in the country in 61 years and an energy crisis made worse by what the government says is lack of maintenance of existing dams and contracts to ensure new energy generation. The Ecuadorian authorities said the extra suspension of electricity for Sunday was based on "protecting water resources" ... "19 provinces with shortages of water, fires and food security (issues)," Environment Minister Ines Manzano told reporters in Cuenca on Saturday. "The corresponding entities must accept and comply with the resolution declaring a red alert." After the government announced the planned power cuts on Tuesday, the military entered the Mazar hydroelectric plant, of about 170 megawatts and considered key for its large storage capacity, to support its operation and protect it.
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/ecuador-cuts-power-half-its-provinces-amid-historic-drought-2024-09-22/‘We used to sail and fish and play’: how did an Argentinian lake the size of New York City disappear?
Drought and mismanagement have turned Lake Colhué Huapí into a virtual dustbowl
Lake Colhué Huapí, a shallow body of water that once spanned almost 800 sq km, has all but disappeared after years of drought and water-management decisions made with limited resources. Its sister, Lake Musters, lies just a few kilometres to the west. It has half the surface area but nearly six times the depth that Lake Colhué Huapí once had, yet it too has been shrinking ... decades of drought, crumbling infrastructure and limited resources created a water crisis in the region. As more than half of the world’s lakes are shrinking, according to a 2023 meta-study published in Science, people in the Senguer River basin have been searching for solutions to desertification in their region for decades. Climate projections show that the water supply is threatened on all fronts
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2024/sep/26/how-did-an-argentina-lake-the-size-of-new-york-city-disappear-lake-colhue-huapi-musters-patagonia
reporting on a study at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abo2812Drought, flooding, drought again: Is ‘weather whiplash’ our new normal?
Natural disasters are increasingly happening in quick succession, raising new threats
Weather whiplash is set off by greenhouse gasses emitted by burning fossil fuels, which warm the atmosphere. Warm air can hold more water vapor than cold air, so the atmosphere gets thirstier in hot weather, sucking up extra moisture from the ground. Dry vegetation is left behind, primed to burn if a fire ignites. All that evaporation also means that when it rains, it pours, raising the risk of deadly flooding and landslides. At the same time, those downpours can accelerate plant growth—leaving more fuel to burn when extreme heat returns to dry out the landscape ... Wildfires also increase the risk of landslides and flooding after they pass through. Burnt vegetation has a diminished ability to hold soil in place or absorb water, and ash that blankets a burn zone allows water to slide downhill without sinking into the earth. “There are no trees or vegetation to slow runoff” ... warmer temperatures will cause more winter precipitation to fall as rain instead of snow [which] could translate to more floods. “Snow is like an annual reservoir that releases water during summer, when there’s higher water demand but we’re not getting rain,” said Davenport [so] not only is the summer drier because of a lower snowpack, but more [winter] water will flow straight into streams and rivers, raising the chances that they overtop their banks .
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/weather-climate-whiplash-drought-floods-heat-wildfiresPortugal’s wildfires produce record emissions with smoke headed for France and Spain
Deadly wildfires raging in northern Portugal have released record emissions, according to the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). With several blazes burning since 14 September, Portugal has recorded the highest total estimated emissions for the month of September in 22 years of CAMS data ... Carbon emissions can be used as an indicator of the strength of the fires. A “significant degradation” in air quality over northern Portugal is expected for the next few days as a result of these wildfires ... A study from earlier this year found that climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of the world’s most extreme wildfires. More than 20 years of NASA satellite data showed that severe burns more than doubled in frequency between 2003 and 2023. They were also 2.3 times more intense with six of the most extreme years happening from 2017 onwards.
https://www.euronews.com/green/2024/09/20/portugals-wildfires-produce-record-emissions-with-smoke-headed-for-france-and-spainPoland, Hungary, Romania: Leaders say fatal floods bear fingerprints of climate change
Poland’s deputy climate minister, Urszula Sara Zielińska, has blamed climate change for the disaster. She told the UK’s BBC that after extreme flooding in 1997, it was said that disasters on this scale would only happen “once every thousand years”. Now they are happening just 26 years later. “There is a clear cause to that and it’s called climate change,” she said ... extreme rainfall events like this are set to increase in Europe as the planet warms.
https://www.euronews.com/green/2024/09/18/poland-hungary-romania-leaders-say-fatal-floods-bear-fingerprints-of-climate-changeLakes drying up leave Greeks in despair
Lake Koronia, one of largest in Greece, is shrinking after a prolonged drought and a summer of record-breaking temperatures, leaving behind cracked earth, dead fish and a persistent stench ... Locals say they can see the 42-square-kilometer (16-square-mile) expanse of water near Thessaloniki retreating day by day ... Water levels at three other natural lakes in the region—Doirani, Volvi and Pikrolimni—are also at their lowest in a decade, according to data last month from the Greek Biotope Wetland Center. Over the last two years, rainfall in the region has been "very low" and the temperatures recorded this year were the highest in the last decade, according to Irini Varsami, a local hydrologist. As well as losing water directly through evaporation, the lake is being drained by the "increasing irrigation needs of (farmers in) the surrounding area", one of the important food-producing plains in the country ... climate change is putting huge pressure on the lakes. According to the national observatory, Greece had the warmest winter and summer on record since reliable data collection began.
https://phys.org/news/2024-09-lakes-drying-greeks-despair.htmlEarth Has Overshot Key ‘Planetary Boundaries,’ Scientists Warn
Human activity is imperiling eight of the planet’s critical life-support systems and seven of them have already passed into a danger zone, according to a massive review of Earth science conducted jointly by more than 60 researchers and published Wednesday in The Lancet Planetary Health. Looking at necessities of a livable Earth — including the climate, freshwater systems, biodiversity and soil nutrients — the researchers find almost all have crossed crucial thresholds ... They conclude that to avoid further destabilization, countries should keep at least half of the planet’s ecosystems intact, limit groundwater extraction and set hard limits on use of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers ... What’s pushing systems past their limits is no surprise: Economic activity. The authors write that “radical” societal changes, including redistributing wealth, are necessary to keep the planet habitable. [However] not all of the boundaries have hard and fast limits to them. Most, like biodiversity loss, air pollution and fertilizer pollution, have no strict levels. The rest of them, he said, are drifting into danger rather than facing a physical cliff — but they all are critical in keeping the whole system healthy.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-11/earth-has-overshot-key-planetary-boundaries-scientists-warn
reporting on a study at https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(24)00042-1/fulltextHuman activity now fuels two-thirds of global methane emissions, report finds
A paper published this week in the journal Earth System Science Data found that global methane emissions over the last five years have risen faster than ever — and at least two-thirds of those emissions are now coming from human sources. Experts said the findings are deeply concerning ... “In terms of methane’s contribution, we’re on a trajectory that is consistent with about 3 degrees C right now,” said Rob Jackson, the study’s lead author, who is also a climate scientist at Stanford and chair of the Global Carbon Project. “We’re far from 1.5 or even 2 degrees C [even] when you look just at methane alone.” Methane is 30 to 80 times stronger at warming than CO2, ton for ton ... “It’s really the only lever we have to slow warming in the next decade or two,” Jackson said. “We really can’t do anything about the trillion tons of carbon dioxide in the air right now on that time frame, but for methane, we could see concentrations return to pre-industrial levels within a decade if we could stop anthropogenic emissions with a magic wand. That’s not likely any time soon but that should be our goal” ... Evan Sherwin, a research scientist at the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory who was not involved with the study, said “It’s a pretty stark warning to us” ... emissions are continuing to accelerate in a dangerous manner. A 2021 global methane pledge signed by 158 countries, including the U.S., aims to reduce global methane emissions at least 30% from 2020 levels by 2030 but has “not really even started to happen yet,” Jackson said. “There are no greenhouse gases going down in the atmosphere yet, and for gases like methane, the levels are going up faster than before,” he said. “It can’t continue for a habitable planet. It looks like we’re heading toward 3 degrees C, which is a terrifying prospect.”
https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2024-09-10/human-activity-fuels-two-thirds-of-global-methane-emissions
see also https://phys.org/news/2024-09-methane-emissions-faster.html
reporting on a study at https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6463Sharks deserting coral reefs as oceans heat up, study shows
Climate crisis is driving key predators from their homes and threatening an already embattled ecosystem Sharks are deserting their coral reef homes as the climate crisis continues to heat up the oceans, scientists have discovered. This is likely to harm the sharks, which are already endangered, and their absence could have serious consequences for the reefs, which are also struggling. The reef sharks are a key part of the highly diverse and delicate ecosystem, which could become dangerously unbalanced without them ... Sharks are cold-blooded and their body temperature is linked to water temperature. “If it gets too hot, they’re going to need to move,” said Dr David Jacoby, a lecturer in zoology at Lancaster University and the leader of the research project.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/sep/09/sharks-deserting-coral-reefs-climate-crisis-heating-oceans-study
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s42003-024-06707-3As Bolivia wildfires rage, smoke turns day into night
[Bolivia] is on track for a record year of fires, exacerbated by drought and land clearances linked to booming production of cattle and grains, especially around the wealthy farm city of Santa Cruz ... people were having breathing problems, eye issues and headaches due to the smoke, while school classes had been suspended. "The sun practically has an orange hue, it looks just like the moon at night" ... Wilber Melgar, from an Indigenous community in the region of Beni to the north of Santa Cruz that has also been hard hit by the fire, blamed ranchers for clearing large areas of land for grazing, at times with slash and burn methods. "Right now the Amazon is burning," he said. Neighboring Brazil is also suffering a torrid beginning to the fire season, with blazes leaving major cities cloaked in smoke and huge swathes of Amazon rainforest there in flames. The wider region is seeing the worst fires since 2010.
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2024-09-11/as-bolivia-wildfires-rage-smoke-turns-day-into-nightEntire Earth vibrated for nine days after climate-triggered mega-tsunami
A landslide and mega-tsunami in Greenland in September 2023, triggered by the climate crisis, caused the entire Earth to vibrate for nine days, a scientific investigation has found. The seismic event was detected by earthquake sensors around the world but was so completely unprecedented that the researchers initially had no idea what had caused it. Having now solved the mystery, the scientists said it showed how global heating was already having planetary-scale impacts and that major landslides were possible in places previously believed to be stable as temperatures rapidly rose. The collapse of a 1,200-metre-high mountain peak into the remote Dickson fjord happened on 16 September 2023 after the melting glacier below was no longer able to hold up the rock face. It triggered an initial wave 200 metres high and the subsequent sloshing of water back and forth in the twisty fjord sent seismic waves through the planet for more than a week.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/sep/12/entire-earth-vibrated-climate-triggered-mega-tsunami
see also https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/09/bizarre-nine-day-seismic-signal-caused-by-epic-landslide-in-greenland/
reporting on a study at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adm9247Impacts of AMOC Collapse on Monsoon Rainfall: A Multi-Model Comparison
Impacts persist for at least 100 years, and so are irreversible over at least a human lifetime
A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) would have substantial impacts on global precipitation patterns, especially in the vulnerable tropical monsoon regions [and] would cause a major rearrangement of all tropical monsoon systems. Four state-of-the-art climate models show remarkable agreement on the effects of an AMOC collapse ... evidence that the recent AMOC weakening might be associated with a decrease of stability of the current circulation mode has been identified in sea-surface temperature and salinity based fingerprints.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023EF003959Antarctic meltwater reduces AMOC through oceanic freshwater transport and atmospheric teleconnections
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is an important component of the climate system because of its role in the heat transport ... Here, we investigate the impact of Antarctic ice sheet meltwater on the AMOC. The meltwater over the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean is transported to the east and, after passing the Drake Passage, travels northward reaching the North Atlantic. Furthermore, Southern Ocean cooling induces a northward shift of the Intertropical. Consequently, the reduced salinity weakens the AMOC. Additional experiments, in which the duration period of freshwater hosing was varied while keeping its total amount constant, indicate that the amplitude and the duration of the meltwater play crucial roles in determining the degree of reduction in the AMOC.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01670-7‘It’s time to give up on normal’: what [Australia] winter’s weird weather means for the warm months ahead
The last 12 months have provided all the evidence we need that our climate is wobbling on its rails
Earth’s climate has become dangerously unstable [and] weather conditions can turn on a dime. This August was a case in point. At month’s end, much of Australia was hit by a record-breaking heatwave and damaging winds – conditions that can dry out a green landscape with devastating efficiency, turning it into fuel for a bushfire. The dangerous fire weather that struck Sydney this week came as a surprise to many. But in reality, these abnormal conditions are the new normal ... we are seeing climate instability layering over itself: background dryness, wet seasons bringing a proliferation of fuels, and above-average temperatures. Eventually we’ll get unlucky and experience extremely strong winds thrown into the mix. That’s when catastrophic fires are most likely to occur.
https://theconversation.com/its-time-to-give-up-on-normal-what-winters-weird-weather-means-for-the-warm-months-ahead-237857The planet endures its hottest summer on record — for the second straight year
Summer broke global heat records for the second straight year, scientists have confirmed — putting 2024 firmly on track to be the hottest year in recorded history ... the latest in a slew of global heat records to fall but will not be the last, scientists warn ... Even in the Southern Hemisphere’s winter, heat has been extreme. Last month, Australia broke its national record for the hottest August day, clocking a temperature of 41.6 degrees Celsius (106.9 Fahrenheit). Meanwhile, temperatures in parts of Antarctica climbed 50 degrees Fahrenheit above normal in July. The Copernicus data confirms what seemed likely after the planet experienced its hottest June on record, followed in July by its hottest single days on record ... the 12 months from September 2023 to August 2024 were the hottest on record for any year-long period, and 1.64 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial levels.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/05/climate/hottest-summer-record-copernicus/index.htmlProject Bison fails. What’s next for the carbon removal megaproject?
The Wyoming venture’s collapse raises questions about the fledgling direct air capture industry The company said it was unable to secure enough carbon emissions-free energy to operate the direct air capture megaproject known as Project Bison, which was intended to remove 5 million tons of CO2 annually by 2030 [due] to competition from other energy-hungry customers such as data center operators and cryptocurrency miners, which have been embraced in Wyoming. Corless said his company intends to build its first commercial-scale project outside of the Cowboy State, which gets more than 70 percent of its electricity from coal-fired power plants ... The largest direct air capture [DAC or CCS] plant in operation is Climeworks’ Mammoth facility in Iceland, which is capable of removing up to 36,000 tons of CO2 annually [about one-millionth of 2023 global annual CO2 emissions] ... Carbon Capture has already sold more than 89,000 tons of carbon removals to Microsoft, Boston Consulting Group and other major corporations, according to CDR.fyi, an industry data clearinghouse. The startup said it would deliver on those commitments in part via a pilot plant it’s planning to open in 2025 that will be capable of removing 2,000 tons of CO2 annually.
https://www.eenews.net/articles/project-bison-fails-whats-next-for-the-carbon-removal-megaproject/The Midwest and Great Plains are gearing up for water fights fueled by climate change
The Missouri River irrigates crops, cools the systems at nuclear and coal power plants and quenches millions of Missourians’ thirst as the largest source of drinking water in the state. While some may take it for granted, Missouri state Rep. Jamie Burger is watching the fights over water in the Western U.S. closely. He worries that eventually people will come seeking Missouri’s abundant water resources. Last legislative session, he introduced a bill to ban most exports of water from the state. “We have to get something into play, because the western states at some point in time will be coming after Missouri's water,” Burger said ... Water law experts say this type of legislative move is a classic warning shot that could signal a more contentious future over water in the Midwest and Great Plains. Periodic courtroom dramas over water may become more common as climate change sets up conditions that could lead to more water scarcity in the north central US. “We're already seeing some chest thumping among some of these states,” said Burke Griggs, a professor of law at Washburn University in Topeka, Kansas ... research has shown the line that marks the start of the arid west might already be moving east as the climate changes. And there are tribal nations throughout the Midwest who were promised water in treaties with the U.S. more than a century ago. “And the funny thing about it is, the tribes have a bigger water right than the states do.” [Griggs] said it’s important to bring everyone to the table, especially groups that were historically left out of water negotiations, like sovereign Native American tribes and the ecosystems that rely on these rivers.
https://nebraskapublicmedia.org/en/news/news-articles/the-midwest-and-great-plains-are-gearing-up-for-water-fights-fueled-by-climate-change/Mississippi River continues to trend lower; draft restrictions in place for shipping
“The gauge at Memphis dropped to the low water threshold of minus 5 feet on Aug. 30,” said Scott Stiles, extension economics program associate for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture. “The last two years, the U.S. Coast Guard initiated a 9-foot draft requirement when river levels fall below the low water threshold ... “If barge drafts are reduced from 12 feet to 9 feet, each barge would be hauling 20,000 fewer bushels of soybeans,” Stiles said. “Grain terminals will need more barges or an alternative means of hauling such as truck or rail ... the Memphis gauge is lower now than it was at this time last year when the river eventually dropped to record lows,” Stiles said. “In October 2023, the Mississippi River reached a level of minus 11.91 feet on the Memphis gauge, which is the lowest since records began” ... Marty Hettel of American Commercial Barge Line, said “It looks like we will once again see some drastic, extreme low-water conditions on the Lower Mississippi River for the third year in a row.”
https://www.uaex.uada.edu/media-resources/news/2024/september2024/09-05-2024-ark-miss-river-trends-lower.aspxThe Impact of Neonicotinoid Pesticides on Pollinators and the Global Economy
European Union, Switzerland, and the US states of New Jersey, Maine, and Nevada have all placed severely restrictive bans on types of neonicotinoids. Yet trade in neonicotinoids abounds, flowing from many countries that ban their use to those that do not. For instance, in 2022, the European Union exported 81,615 tons of 41 pesticides banned within the bloc; such exports are predominantly sent to lower- and middle-income countries, with Brazil as the largest recipient ... neonicotinoids [pose] a catastrophic danger to bees, birds, and the environment. Infused with pesticides, the crops may produce toxic pollen that poisons pollinators and contaminates ground and surface water. Neonicotinoids target insects’ nervous systems, causing shaking, paralysis, and death. In addition to the pollinators, neonicotinoids harm plant-eating mammals and plants dependent on insect pollinators. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released an assessment in 2023 indicating that over 200 endangered animals and plants enumerated in the Endangered Species Act are in severe danger of being driven extinct due to neonicotinoids.
https://hir.harvard.edu/buzzing-dangers-the-impact-of-neonicotinoid-pesticides-on-pollinators-and-the-global-economy/Brazil wildfires worsened by 'mega drought,' extreme heat
Over the last week, some 2,700 fires have ripped through Brazil's southern Sao Paulo state. "We had an explosive combination of three factors: high temperature, very strong winds and very low relative humidity in the last few days," said Sao Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas. Those conditions have seen Sao Paulo state and the Amazon rainforest, further north, suffering the worst fire season in decades [and] have also fueled the record fires in the Cerrado Plateau, a tropical savanna, and the Pantanal, the world's largest tropical wetland, a biodiverse area packed full of different species of plants and animals. The Pantanal, located between the Amazon and Sao Paulo, lost some 600,000 hectares to the flames in June, an area the size of Luxembourg ... "We are accelerating the climate collapse," said Gatti, stressing that deforestation was doing more to increase temperatures in the Amazon than global climate change. "The forest that remains is no longer the same; it's like the Amazon is sick" ... The World Resources Institute reports that wildfires around the world are getting worse, destroying twice as many trees as they were 20 years ago ... "Things are changing very rapidly," said Peres, outlining how increased fires and drought were putting water and food security at risk, wiping out biodiversity and harming human health. He pointed out that every time a forest burns, it sets the stage for "more frequent and more intensive fires the next time," as more of the vegetation dies and becomes fuel for the next wildfire. "By the time that forest burns the third time, then you no longer have a forest ... the damage that this is doing, both in terms of biodiversity loss and loss in carbon storage, is massive."
https://www.dw.com/en/brazil-wildfires-made-worse-by-drought-extreme-heat/a-70088581
reporting on a study at https://www.wri.org/insights/global-trends-forest-firesThe World’s Largest Wetland Is Burning, and Rare Animals Are Dying
The Pantanal is a maze of rivers, forests and marshlands that sprawl over 68,000 square miles, an area 20 times the size of the Everglades. About 80 percent lies within Brazil, with the rest in Bolivia and Paraguay. Usually flooded for much of the year, the Pantanal in recent years has been parched by a string of severe droughts that scientists have linked to deforestation and climate change ... “We’re really nervous watching this unfold,” said Mr. Barreto, who is working on the front lines of the rescue efforts inside the Pantanal. “The outlook is not good” ... flames from the fires have reached tree crowns and scorched 80 percent of a crucial nesting area ... blazes have also disrupted food chains, leaving behind a barren landscape devoid of water and essential food sources.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/27/world/americas/pantanal-wildfires-wildlife.htmlEven desert plants known for their resilience are burning and dying in the heat
The Southwest is no stranger to sweltering conditions, and desert plants and trees are drought-resistant and heat-tolerant. Arid, harsh environments are where they thrive. But as climate change makes heat waves more frequent, intense and long-lasting, experts say the increasingly severe conditions are testing some iconic desert plants known for their resilience — including saguaro cacti and agave. “We saw damage to plants this summer that had never showed heat stress before” ... Las Vegas has smashed several heat records already this summer, including its hottest day in recorded history on July 7, when the temperature reached 120 degrees Fahrenheit. A record streak of seven straight days at or above 115 F followed. Temperatures for most of June, July and August stayed in the triple digits, with little relief even at night. “The heat we’re seeing now is a new paradigm. It’s like the ground is shifting beneath our feet,” Schilling said ... Last year, when Phoenix endured its hottest summer in recorded history — with a record 31 straight days of temperatures at or above 110 F — stark images emerged of saguaro cacti that had dropped their signature arms or tipped over completely. This year has not brought much relief. “It’s possible that we’re looking at this exponential curve of mortality” ... “They’re one of the hardiest plants in the desert — they are very robust,” Kemppinen said. “The fact that they seem to be responding so negatively to extreme heat events and to climate change is particularly worrisome.”
https://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/desert-plants-burning-dying-heat-agave-saguaro-cacti-rcna166834Bolivian farmers pack up and flee as wildfires burn woodland
The southern hemisphere nation has recorded the largest number of outbreaks of wildfires in 14 years, with 3 million hectares (7.5 million acres) of land burned already this year and peak fire season still ahead. Neighboring Brazil is also suffering a torrid beginning to the season, with blazes in major cities and in the Amazon rainforest off to their worst start in 20 years, after a record drought aggravated by global warming ... Bolivia has registered 36,800 fire outbreaks so far this year, second only to a record year for blazes in 2010, according to satellite data from Brazil's space research agency Inpe, which monitors fires across the continent ... South America overall is bracing for an intense fire season that usually peaks in August and September before spring rains arrive. Unusually early and intense fires followed a drought that has dried out vegetation in much of the region. "We live from agriculture and now nothing grows, everything is dry," said Maria Suarez Moconho, an Indigenous community chief who leads the group of volunteers and said conditions were having a devastating impact on water and food supplies. "The fire burns everything."
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/bolivian-farmers-pack-up-flee-wildfires-burn-woodland-2024-08-29Why is Lapland on fire? Finland’s far north set for record-breakingly hot summer
July brought unusually hot temperatures throughout the country, the Finnish Meteorological Institute says, but the heat was particularly pronounced in northern Finland. The average monthly temperature in the northern part of the country was between 15.5 and 18C, around 2 to 3.4 degrees above the average temperature. Mika Rantanen, a researcher at the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), told Finnish news site YLE News that Lapland is on track for its warmest summer yet ... Hotter temperatures, driven by climate change, are linked to an increased risk of wildfires. In Finnish Lapland’s Inari region, locals and wildlife have suffered 17 fires this summer so far. Timo Nyholm, duty fire officer at the Lapland Rescue Department, has said that’s well above the seasonal average of 10. He expects the summer total to blaze past 20 fires. Hotter temperatures make plants drier and stimulate plant growth, meaning there is more fuel for fires to burn. "Climate change is extending the fire season,” [said] FMI researcher Outi Kinnunen.
https://www.euronews.com/green/2024/08/27/why-is-lapland-on-fire-finlands-far-north-set-for-record-breakingly-hot-summerCanada’s 2023 wildfires released more greenhouse gases than most countries
Only China, India and the United States released more carbon emissions
If Canada’s wildfires were ranked alongside countries, they would have been the world’s fourth-largest emitter ... the climate crisis, driven by the burning of fossil fuels, is leading to drier and hotter conditions, driving extreme wildfires. The 2023 fires burned 15m hectares (37m acres) across Canada, or about 4% of its forests. The findings add to concerns about dependence on the world’s forests to act as a long-term carbon sink for industrial emissions when instead they could be aggravating the problem as they catch fire.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/29/canada-wildfires-carbon-emissions
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07878-zRecord Rainfall Spoils Crops in China, Rattling Its Leaders
After weeks of drought, farmers in the typically arid agricultural belt in northern China were ill prepared for the torrential rain that inundated fields earlier this summer and decimated their crops ... downpours and an overflowing reservoir had turned soil into sludge unfit for growing plants. Across the country, a shift in weather patterns has caught people off guard, with floods arriving two months earlier than usual in the south and then extending to northern and eastern provinces that are more accustomed to summer drought ... While climate change is upending food supply chains everywhere, it is a particularly sensitive issue in China, where famines have historically led to unrest ... China is already the world’s largest food importer and needs to feed almost one-sixth of the world’s population with less than one-tenth of the world’s arable land, which has shrunk and degraded with heavy fertilizer use and pollution ... More rivers flooded this year than any other since records in China began ... this year also recorded its hottest July since at least 1961. Weather phenomena are expected to become more frequent ... China suffered more than $10 billion in losses from natural disasters in July, some 90 percent of which was caused by heavy rain and floods.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/02/world/asia/china-rainfall-crops.htmlBest-case scenario for climate change is now 1.6°C of warming
In fact, the researchers say it is more likely than not that we won’t be able to limit warming to 1.6°C
Humanity’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, which has been totemic in climate policy for the past decade, is now almost certainly now out of reach ... “1.5°C without overshoot is not attainable,” says Christoph Bertram at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research in Germany. Bertram and his colleagues came to this conclusion by running a series of models that accounted for realistic constraints in rolling out green technologies and implementing climate policies, as well as “enabling factors”, such as reduction in energy demand. Green technologies like renewable energy have taken off dramatically in recent years, but the key constraint to rapid climate action is the ability of governments to roll out carbon-limiting policies such as carbon taxes, the team found. Some countries simply don’t have the infrastructure or the bureaucracy to effectively enforce policies like carbon pricing, says Bertram. “Even if we see a massive shift in the coming years politically, we still can’t get around these hard facts,” he says. “It takes regulation for some of these solutions and you can’t expect all countries to have perfect regulation” ... Zeke Hausfather at US non-profit Berkeley Earth says the paper “more or less states what has become a largely unspoken consensus in the community: that it’s too late to prevent warming from exceeding 1.5°C in the coming decades”.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2444314-best-case-scenario-for-climate-change-is-now-1-6c-of-warming/
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02073-4UN Interconnected Disaster Risks report
The 2023 report analyses six interconnected climate risk tipping points, representing immediate and increasing risks across the world
A tower made of building blocks might remain standing at first if you remove one piece at a time, but instability slowly builds in until you remove one block too many and it topples over ... This is called a tipping point, and tipping points can have irreversible, catastrophic impacts for people and the planet ... Many new risks emerge when and where our physical and natural worlds interconnect with human society. Some tipping points trigger abrupt changes in our life-sustaining systems that can shake the foundations of our societies. This is why the 2023 edition of the Interconnected Disaster Risks report proposes a new category of tipping points: risk tipping points ... the moment at which a given socioecological system is no longer able to buffer risks and provide its expected functions, after which the risk of catastrophic impacts to these systems increases substantially. Today, we are moving perilously close to the brink of multiple risk tipping points. Human actions are behind this rapid and fundamental change to the planet. We are introducing new risks and amplifying existing ones ... In an interconnected world the impacts of risk tipping points such as this are felt globally, as they cause ripple effects through food systems, the economy and the environment. They affect the very structure of our society ... Actions that affect one system will likely have consequences on another, so we must avoid working in silos and instead look at the world as one connected system.
https://interconnectedrisks.org/‘Like doomsday’: why have salmon deserted Norway’s rivers – and will they ever return?
This spring the salmon, particularly the medium and larger-sized fish, did not come back from the ocean, raising such alarm over the collapse of the salmon population that the [Gaula] river, along with dozens of others in central and southern Norway, was abruptly closed [to fishing] for the first time ... Scientists have been warning of the rapidly declining North Atlantic salmon population for years [and] now the latest figures show Atlantic salmon stocks are at a historic low. Experts say the species is at imminent threat from salmon farming, which has led to escapes (including of sick fish), a dramatic rise in sea lice, and could result in wild salmon being replaced entirely by a hybrid species ... While the broader factors linked to the climate crisis are not something that Norway can quickly do something about, the human-made impact of fish farming is something that could be swiftly acted upon, says Forseth. He is calling for a completely different approach to fish-farm management, separating farmed and wild fish populations. Open-net farming at sea has, he believes, reached its “biological limit” ... Bogen says she’s not surprised. “Something happened in 2023, but the decline has been obvious for years and years and all the research is showing all the same trends,” she says.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/aug/29/like-doomsday-why-have-salmon-deserted-norway-rivers-and-will-they-ever-returnViolence over water is on the rise globally. A record number of conflicts erupted in 2023
Water-related conflicts increased 50% in 2023
Water-related disputes — ranging from quarrels over water sources to protests over lack of clean water — have erupted into violence with alarming frequency ... “The rise is very dramatic and disturbing,” said Peter Gleick, Pacific Institute co-founder and senior fellow. The upsurge in violence, he said, reflects continuing disputes over control and access to scarce water resources, growing pressures on supplies driven by population growth and climate change, and ongoing attacks on water infrastructure where war and violence are widespread, especially in the Middle East and Ukraine. Details of last year’s incidents have been included in the latest update of the Pacific Institute’s Water Conflict Chronology, a comprehensive global database on water-related violence ... In many parts of the world, a key problem is the long-standing failure to provide people access to clean water and sanitation. (One new study estimates that 4.4 billion people worldwide don’t have access to safely managed drinking water services.) ... “There’s always going to be violence for political reasons or economic reasons or ideological reasons, but there is no reason why water should be a factor in that violence, and we have to take water out of the equation,” Gleick said.
https://www.latimes.com/environment/newsletter/2024-08-22/boiling-point-water-conflicts-increasing-boiling-point
reporting on a study at https://www.worldwater.org/water-conflict/What is the hottest temperature humans can survive? These labs are redefining the limit
The threshold for survival in heat is lower than thought
Heat thresholds for humans have been poorly defined in part because public-health bodies have over-relied on a theoretical study published in 2010, says Jay. In that paper, researchers used mathematical models to define the ‘wet-bulb temperature’ (WBT) at which a young, healthy person would die after six hours. WBT is a measure that scientists use when studying heat stress because it accounts for the effects of heat and humidity. The models churned out a WBT of 35 °C as the limit of human survival. At that threshold, the body’s core temperature would rise uncontrollably. But the model treated the human body as an unclothed object that doesn’t sweat or move, making the result less applicable to the real world. Despite this, countless public-health bodies adopted it — even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change — reducing the motivation to obtain a more relevant number, says Jay. “It’s a basic physical model with many limitations — but nearly everyone’s using this.” In a 2021 study, Kenney and his colleagues provided a better estimate: a WBT survival limit of around 31 °C. They calculated it by tracking the core body temperature of young, healthy people under different combinations of temperature and humidity while they were cycling. “You do still see the 35 °C wet-bulb temperature tossed around, but people are starting to come around to the limit defined by Kenney’s lab,” says Robert Meade, a heat and health researcher at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-02422-5Evaluation of climate policy measures over two decades finds many have failed to achieve necessary emissions reductions
An international research team has unveiled the first comprehensive global evaluation of 1,500 climate policy measures from 41 countries across six continents. Published in the journal Science, this study provides a detailed impact analysis of the wide range of climate policy measures implemented over the last two decades. The findings reveal a sobering reality: many policy measures have failed to achieve the necessary scale of emissions reductions. Only 63 cases of successful climate policies, each leading to average emission reductions of [only] 19%, were identified.
https://phys.org/news/2024-08-climate-policy-decades-emissions-reductions.html
reporting on a study at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adl6547‘Heat engine’ fuelled by climate crisis bringing blast of summer weather to Australian winter
Australia is on track to face its hottest August on record as a global heating-fuelled “heat engine” brings spring and summer warmth to Australia’s winter ... the unseasonably warm weather was coming from a “heat engine” in Australia’s red centre, where clear skies in the coming week would drive maximum temperatures towards 40C, more than 10C above average ... Temperatures across the country are rising higher and earlier than usual, putting August averages comfortably above the long-term mean ... the heat buildup was typical of spring and summer but was happening earlier and more intensely as global heating made winter shorter ... Perkins-Kirkpatrick warned Australians to expect earlier, more intense winter heat in future. The lengthening of spring and summer is only going to intensify with climate change,” she said.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/aug/23/australia-weather-forecast-august-heat-records-bom-adelaide-brisbane-sydney-melbourneAustralia’s highest winter temperature on record
An unseasonably hot airmass just produced the highest wintertime temperature ever recorded in Australia. A weather station at Yampi Sound in WA’s Kimberley region registered a temperature of 41.6°C shortly after 3:30pm AWST on Monday, August 26 ... the latest in a series of record-breaking winter temperatures over the past few days. South Australia set new winter maximum temperature records on both Friday and Saturday and a new winter minimum temperature record on Sunday morning. With the hot air mass likely to stick around northwestern Australia for the next few days, we should see more temperatures over 40°C.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/australias-highest-winter-temperature-on-record/1889795Ecosystems study finds the higher the environmental stress, the lower the resistance to global change
As the number of global change factors increases, terrestrial ecosystems become more sensitive to the impacts of global change. The results, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, show that the resistance of our ecosystems to global change decreases significantly as the number of environmental stressors increases, especially when this stress is sustained over time ... "Terrestrial ecosystems are subject to a myriad of climate change and environmental degradation factors, including global warming, drought processes, atmospheric pollution, fires or overgrazing among many others ... Our research shows that as the number of [factors] increases, these ecosystems become more and more sensitive and reduce their natural capacity to resist the impacts of environmental perturbations."
https://phys.org/news/2024-08-ecosystems-higher-environmental-stress-resistance.html
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-024-01518-xIs the Atlantic Overturning Circulation Approaching a Tipping Point?
https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2024.501Are You Sure Your House Is Worth That Much?
Climate risk is still not being priced into American homeownership
Across the United States, homeowner’s insurance is getting more expensive ... Insurers, being in the business of risk assessment, are a good bellwether of the state of reality, and because of climate change, Americans’ homes are not as safe from harm, statistically speaking, as they once were ... Many economists now think that, because home prices don’t yet reflect climate reality, a new housing bubble is growing. How much bigger it gets will determine how much havoc it will wreak when it inevitably pops ... Jesse Gourevitch, an environmental economist at the Environmental Defense Fund and a co-author on the 2023 paper, was more direct: We’re in a bubble, and whether it deflates slowly, causing some economic pain, or pops suddenly, shocking the country’s economic system, will come down to policy choices that governments make now ... Unlike the housing bubble of the previous recession, this one won’t leave homes to gain back their value over time. The onslaught of wildfires and hurricanes likely won’t reverse course, so neither will uninsurability ... it could lead to mortgage-market collapse: Banks won’t issue mortgages on homes that can’t get insurance coverage.
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2024/08/climate-change-risk-homeowners-housing-bubble/679559/The uninsurable world Part 1: What climate change is costing homeowners
Global warming is making extreme weather events such as storms, floods and wildfires more frequent and severe ... As firms exit some areas and demand higher premiums in others, affordable home insurance cover — for many an essential annual outlay, often a condition of their mortgage debt — is getting harder to secure. The global picture explains why. A run of four consecutive years when overall insurance losses from natural catastrophes have topped $100bn, previously the mark of a remarkably bad year, has spooked executives ... this is adding greater urgency and attention to a challenge long predicted by environmental activists: that climate change will make parts of the world uninsurable.
https://www.ft.com/content/ed3a1bb9-e329-4e18-89de-9db90eaadc0bThe uninsurable world Part 2: How the market fell behind on climate change
The 1970s paper by Munich Re, now the largest in the industry, pointed to global warming, polar melt and other environmental shifts as needing further study, “especially as — as far as we know — its conceivable impact on the long-range risk trend has hardly been examined to date”. Today, the effect of climate change fuelling natural catastrophes such as floods and wildfires is evident, and insurance companies are scrambling ... Insurance models “struggle to factor, with any precision, the probabilities that are accruing from climate change”, said Paula Jarzabkowski, an expert on risk at the University of Queensland.
https://www.ft.com/content/b4bf187a-1040-4a28-9f9e-fa8c4603ed1bThe uninsurable world Part 3: Rethinking how to cover for climate damage
The worldwide patchwork of last-resort insurance now provided by government schemes alone will not be sufficient. “A lot of what we have already . . . hasn’t grown up to fix the problem we’re in.” [But] while ever more granular analysis might allow some properties to be underwritten that could not be otherwise, it could also widen the divide between those properties and people viewed as “good risks” and “bad risks”.
https://www.ft.com/content/272fac7a-9d8f-4afe-a489-0ea6b5837ee5State of the Climate
An international, peer-reviewed publication released each summer, the State of the Climate is the authoritative annual summary of the global climate published as a supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. The report, compiled by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, is based on contributions from scientists from around the world. It provides a detailed update on global climate indicators, notable weather events, and other data collected by environmental monitoring stations and instruments located on land, water, ice, and in space.
https://www.ametsoc.org/index.cfm/ams/publications/bulletin-of-the-american-meteorological-society-bams/state-of-the-climate/When will climate change turn life in the U.S. upside down?
Intensifying weather and an insurance crisis are likely to cause significant disruption within the next 15 years
"Two years on from Glasgow and our warming estimates for government action have barely moved" ... the impacts of climate change will be apocalyptic for many nations and people ... the fractional contribution of climate change to disaster losses [is] likely to increase rapidly, making the insurance crisis accelerate. A 2023 study drew attention to a massive real estate bubble [which] will likely continue to grow as sea levels rise, storms dump heavier rains, and unwise risky development continues ... "The path we are on today, though — the path that our current political system makes likely — is the path of Wholly Irrational and Completely Ad-Hoc Pirate Capitalism: Increasing climate change-induced disasters cause panic among homeowners as a class; politicians rush to grab dollars to enable everyone to live the same as they are now for as long as possible; and eventually the whole thing crashes into the wall of reality in a way that causes uncontainable, national pain"... Crawford addressed the issue in a 2024 essay, “Who ends up holding the bag when risky real estate markets collapse?” [which] concluded: “2025 or 2026 is when things give way and it becomes very difficult to offload houses and buildings in risky places where mortgages are suddenly hard to get, much less insurance” ... Steffen predicts the real estate [bubble] will pop within five years (10 at the most) ... [Lloyd's] estimated that a “major” food shock scenario costing $3 trillion globally over a five-year period had a 2.3% chance of happening per year. Over a 30-year period, those odds equate to about a 50% probability of occurrence — assuming the risks are not increasing each year, which, in fact, they are.
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/08/when-will-climate-change-turn-life-in-the-u-s-upside-down/Humans to push further into wildlife habitats across more than 50% of land by 2070 – study
Humans have already transformed or occupied between 70% and 75% of the world’s land. Research published in Science Advances on Wednesday found the overlap between human and wildlife populations is expected to increase ... As humans and animals share increasingly crowded landscapes, the bigger overlap could result in higher potential for disease transmission, biodiversity loss, animals being killed by people and wildlife eating livestock and crops, the researchers said. Biodiversity loss is the leading driver of infectious disease outbreaks. About 75% of emerging diseases in humans are zoonotic, meaning they can be passed from animals to humans.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/aug/21/humans-to-push-further-into-wildlife-habitats-across-more-than-50-of-land-by-2070-study-aoe
reporting on a study at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adp7706Plastic 'Bombardment' Putting Antarctica at Risk From Hitchhiking Invaders
Antarctica's unique ecosystems are increasingly at risk from non-native marine species and pollution carried from Southern Hemisphere landmasses, according to a new study published in Global Change Biology. Researchers have revealed that floating debris, including plastics and organic materials, can transport invasive species to Antarctic waters from a broader range of sources than previously understood. The study reveals that non-native species, particularly small marine invertebrates, can hitch a ride on floating objects like kelp, driftwood, pumice and plastic, reaching the Antarctic coastline not only from remote Southern Ocean islands but also from as far afield as Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, and South America.
https://www.newsweek.com/plastic-pollution-antarctica-marine-ecosystem-1942477
reporting on a study at https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.17467Microplastics are infiltrating brain tissue, studies show: ‘There’s nowhere left untouched’
Microplastics are accumulating in critical human organs, including the brain, leading researchers to call for more urgent actions to rein in plastic pollution. Studies have detected tiny shards and specks of plastics in human lungs, placentas, reproductive organs, livers, kidneys, knee and elbow joints, blood vessels and bone marrow [and] suggest they could increase the risk of various conditions such as oxidative stress, which can lead to cell damage and inflammation, as well as cardiovascular disease. Animal studies have also linked microplastics to fertility issues, various cancers, a disrupted endocrine and immune system, and impaired learning and memory ... “It’s pretty alarming,” Campen said. “There’s much more plastic in our brains than I ever would have imagined or been comfortable with” ... The paper also found the quantity of microplastics in brain samples from 2024 was about 50% higher from the total in samples that date to 2016, suggesting the concentration of microplastics found in human brains is rising at a similar rate to that found in the environment.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/aug/21/microplastics-brain-pollution-healthHalfway through ‘danger season,’ nearly all of America has been touched by extreme weather
So far this [summer], 99% of the country’s population has been touched by at least one extreme weather alert ... a new reality is emerging for millions of Americans: a time of year once defined by lazy afternoons, swimming pools and backyard barbecues is increasingly marked by calamity ... “The global and continental indicators really are blinking red that this is a year of climate change impacts,” Hall said. “We have built our infrastructure for a different world, and in some ways we weren’t even that well adapted to the world that we had,” he said. “And now we have a new climate.” The effect is expected to persist next summer, and certainly in summers to come.
https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2024-08-16/extreme-weather-touches-most-of-america-this-danger-seasonA Trip to One of the Hottest Cities on the Planet
Killer Heat in Lahore Pakistan
The human cooling system is specific to our species. It is not some standard off-the-shelf mammalian kit. Our prehuman ancestors may have panted out their heat like dogs and foxes, or, I suppose, rolled around in mud like pigs, but we sweat from millions of pores spread across our naked skin. This system functions only within a tiny range of temperatures that maxes out at a wet-bulb temperature of 95 degrees. Many places on Earth, including Lahore, already get hotter than that for long stretches that will only lengthen in the years to come ... It is the city’s poor who are most often carried to Muhammad’s heat counter, people who can’t afford to fly north to the mountains or to London in high summer. They’re bricklayers, railroad workers who toil on exposed platforms, fruit hawkers, beggars. Or they’re women like Shehzad, who spend the day’s hot hours doing household work in small rooms, without so much as an electric fan.
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2024/08/extreme-heat-pakistan-lahore/679433/Mediterranean Sea reaches highest surface temperature ever recorded
"The maximum sea surface temperature record was broken in the Mediterranean Sea yesterday ... with a daily median of 28.90C," Spain's leading institute of marine sciences said. The preliminary readings for 2024 come from satellite data from the European Copernicus Observatory [and] means that for two successive summers the Mediterranean will have been warmer than during the exceptional summer heatwave of 2003 ... The Mediterranean region has long been classified as a hotspot of climate change. Oceans have absorbed 90 percent of the excess heat produced by human activity since the dawn of the industrial age, according to scientists. This excess heat continues to accumulate.
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240816-mediterranean-sea-reaches-highest-surface-temperature-ever-recorded-climate-changeDrought Parches Mexico
“Extreme” and “exceptional” drought, as classified by the North American Drought Monitor, now afflicts several states in Mexico. States experiencing these categories of drought include Sonora, Chihuahua, Sinaloa, and Durango in northern Mexico, as well as Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosí, Guanajuato, Querétaro, and Hidalgo farther south. As the drought persists, it is parching crops, exacerbating fires, and straining water systems throughout the country. Concerns about water supplies have become particularly acute in Mexico City, the capital city of 19 million people, where reservoirs have dipped to historically low levels and groundwater aquifers are nearly depleted ... The lack of water has prompted officials to start reducing the amount of water the system delivers to Mexico City, and some analysts warn that many taps in the city could run dry in the coming months.
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/152908/drought-parches-mexico38 trillion dollars in damages each year: World economy already committed to income reduction of 19% due to climate change
Even if CO2 emissions were to be drastically cut down starting today, the world economy is already committed to an income reduction of 19% until 2050 due to climate change, a new study published in “Nature” finds. These damages are six times larger than the mitigation costs needed to limit global warming to two degrees. Based on empirical data from more than 1,600 regions worldwide over the past 40 years, scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) assessed future impacts of changing climatic conditions on economic growth and their persistence ... “Our analysis shows that climate change will cause massive economic damages within the next 25 years in almost all countries around the world, [including] in highly-developed ones such as Germany, France and the United States,” says PIK scientist Leonie Wenz who led the study. ”We have to cut down our emissions drastically and immediately – if not, economic losses will become even bigger [which] clearly shows that protecting our climate is much cheaper than not doing so.”
https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/38-trillion-dollars-in-damages-each-year-world-economy-already-committed-to-income-reduction-of-19-due-to-climate-change
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07219-0Greece evacuates hospitals and homes as wildfires rage near Athens
Residents of the historic town of Marathon, 40 kilometres (25 miles) east of Athens, were among those ordered to evacuate Sunday. "Everything is burning," said Giorgos Tsevas, a resident of Polydendri village. The Mediterranean country is exceptionally vulnerable to summer blazes, with this season seeing fires burn daily. After the warmest winter on record, Greece also experienced its hottest June and July since reliable data collection began in 1960. Scientists warn that human-induced fossil fuel emissions are worsening the length, frequency and intensity of heatwaves across the world. The rising temperatures are leading to longer wildfire seasons and increasing the area burnt in the flames, according to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240812-residents-flee-as-greece-wildfires-rage-despite-superhuman-efforts‘It made me cry’: photos taken 15 years apart show melting Swiss glaciers
A tourist has posted “staggering” photos of himself and his wife at the same spot in the Swiss Alps almost exactly 15 years apart, in a pair of photos that highlight the speed with which global heating is melting glaciers. “It made me cry,” Porter said ... Hotter summers have forced people in mountainous regions to see slow-moving glaciers melt before their eyes. Switzerland has lost one-third of its glacier volume since 2000, according to official statistics, and 10% has disappeared in the last two years alone ... “It was a very impressive glacier,” said Sonia Seneviratne, a Swiss climate scientist and co-author of an IPCC report, who visited the glacier as a teenager. “It’s very sad to see those pictures because you see how large the changes have been.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/aug/06/it-made-me-cry-photos-taken-15-years-apart-show-melting-swiss-glaciersMining giant abandons plan to ditch coal as boss admits ‘cash is king’
The dramatic U-turn comes just months after Glencore announced plans to spin off its [coal] division ... The change in attitude is not limited to Glencore. Around the world, geopolitical crises have prompted investors to reassess blanket ESG rules banning them from supporting fossil fuel producers or defence companies. Many are also reluctant to turn their back on large profits. In the past year or so, oil companies such as Shell and BP have walked back some of their green energy commitments to refocus on fossil fuels. Shell’s chief executive said it would be “irresponsible” to shut down oil and gas production prematurely, as he has vowed to boost shareholder returns ... [coal] remains a hugely profitable business for Glencore. Demand reached a record high of 8.4bn tonnes in 2022, according to the International Energy Agency [and] propelled Glencore’s coal business to profits of $18bn that year, followed by profits of $8bn in 2023.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/08/07/glencore-drops-plan-to-ditch-coal-after-shareholder-u-turn/‘It’s devastating’: summer in Canada’s Arctic region brings severe heatwaves
A heatwave that is currently hovering over the [town of Inuvik] 130 miles (209km) north of the Arctic Circle threatens to shatter its all-time heat record [and] comes with a set of lingering worries, including the threat of wildfires and melting permafrost ... reaching 35C (95F) and passing an all-time record of 33C set last year. A weather alert from Environment Canada classified the heat as “severe”, warning of “significant threat to life or property”. The unseasonably warm temperatures mark the fourth heatwave of the season ... In recent years, Canada’s record-breaking wildfire seasons have enveloped a region of the country historically spared from widespread destruction ... This week, more than half of the territory was facing “extreme” fire risk, according to the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Canada is warming at a rate faster than the global average and in the Arctic, the warming is happening even faster.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/08/canada-arctic-region-heat-waveThe ocean losing its breath under the heatwaves
The world’s oceans are under threat from the prevalence of heatwaves caused by climate change ... heatwaves can trigger low-oxygen extreme events [with] a remarkable surge in the co-occurrence of marine heatwaves and low-oxygen extreme events. Hotspots of these concurrent stressors are identified in the study, indicating that this intensification is more pronounced in high-biomass regions than in those with relatively low biomass. The rise in the compound events is primarily attributable to long-term warming primarily induced by anthropogenic forcing ... Our findings suggest the ocean is losing its breath under the influence of heatwaves, potentially experiencing more severe damage than previously anticipated.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-51323-8France Set for Worst Wheat Harvest Since 1983
Ceaseless rains along with a lack of sunshine and low temperatures favoring diseases have impacted yields and the quality of the crops in the majority of growing regions. Weather extremes across Europe have hit grains this season, with excessive rains in northwestern Europe, and drought and high temperatures hurting corn crops in the east. French farmers called on the government to provide financial aid last week due to the catastrophic harvest.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-06/france-set-for-worst-wheat-harvest-since-1983-argus-saysChina floods hit rice, corn crops; trigger food inflation worries
Floods have damaged corn and rice crops in China's key northern grain-producing belt, traders and analysts said, with more rain in the forecast as another typhoon approaches, threatening to add to global food inflation pressures. The hit to China's cereal crops - the full extent of which is not yet clear - comes as consumers worldwide face tightening food supplies amid India's ban on rice exports last month and disruptions in Black Sea grain shipments caused by the war in Ukraine.
https://www.tbsnews.net/world/china-floods-hit-rice-corn-crops-trigger-food-inflation-worries-680850Chinese cities swelter in record heat, rice-growing regions under threat
Extreme heat baked megacities on the eastern Chinese seaboard and sharply pushed up demand for power to cool homes and offices, while scorching temperatures in China's interior stoked fears of damage to rice crops ... Hangzhou has sweltered under temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) since Friday as eastern and southern China endure stubbornly high temperatures. In Shanghai, the maximum load, or demand, on its power grid exceeded 40 million kilowatts for the first time on Aug. 2 as heat waves boosted electricity consumption in the city of nearly 25 million people. Shanghai leads the country in power load density, with the city's core Lujiazui area consuming twice the power per square kilometre compared to New York's Manhattan or Tokyo's Ginza district ... Maximum daily temperatures of 37 C to 39 C, and even above 40 C, are expected to hit parts of Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Anhui and Zhejiang through Sunday. The heat coincides with the harvest of the early-season rice crop in those provinces, spurring calls for increased irrigation to keep fields cool.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinese-megacity-limits-outdoor-lighting-record-heat-strains-grid-2024-08-06/Death Valley just recorded the hottest month ever observed on the planet
July was also the hottest month on record for dozens of other cities in the western United States Death Valley, Calif., registered an average July temperature of 108.5 degrees [F], the highest monthly value ever recorded among thousands of weather stations around the globe ... The Earth has set high temperature records over the past 13 months. Scientists say the warmth is linked to decades of global heating from human emissions of greenhouse gases. Death Valley’s high temperatures ranged from 111 to 129 degrees [F]. It reached at least 125 on nine consecutive days from July 4 to 12. At night, the mercury only dipped below 90 twice and remained in the triple digits three times.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/08/01/death-valley-just-recorded-hottest-month-ever-observed-planet/‘The Adriatic is becoming tropical’: Italian fishers struggle to adapt to warm sea
On a number of days in July, the sea temperature along Italy’s Adriatic coastline, which stretches from Trieste in the north to Capo d’Otranto in the south, reached a record 30C, and in some areas slightly surpassed that figure ... “A lot has changed in 50 years ... The Adriatic is becoming tropical. We are starting to see species of fish that were not previously there, such as swordfish, whereas various types of white fish, such as turbot, are almost extinct. There is no doubt that the [climatic] change is happening and it’s pointless trying to deny it.” Danovaro added that while the Adriatic has become much cleaner over the last 20 to 30 years, it has also become more depleted. “It produces less, and receives less nutrients [from the rivers], and then it suffers from these heatwaves ... it is starting to become more evident,” he said, pointing to the killing off of sea sponges and other organisms. “The Adriatic is becoming as tropical as the Maldives.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/04/adriatic-warming-sea-italy-fishers-mucilage-microalgaeAntarctic temperatures soar 50 degrees [F] above norm in long-lasting heat wave
Ground temperatures in East Antarctica have soared more than 50F (28 Celsius) above normal in the second major heat wave to afflict the region in the past two years ... an ominous example of the major temperature spikes this polar climate could experience more frequently in a warming world ... it covers a large section of East Antarctica, which makes up most of the continent. The heat wave comes in the middle of the Antarctic winter, so temperatures are still hovering around minus-20 Celsius. Still, the Antarctic temperature anomaly is the largest on the globe [and] a much larger deviation from the norm than usual. Atmospheric pressures over East Antarctica are also surging to “absolutely bonkers” levels, tweeted Ben Noll, a meteorologist based in New Zealand ... the entire world has seen record warmth since last July, consistently exceeding an average of 1.5 Celsius of warming above the preindustrial era. As the globe warms, however, the poles are warming at an even faster rate.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/07/31/antarctica-heat-wave-warming-climate/Retreating Andean rocks signal the world's glaciers are melting far faster than predicted, report scientists
Tropical glaciers have shrunk to their smallest size in more than 11,700 years [and] may no longer be classified as being of the Holocene interglacial period. Instead, they may be best classified by an epoch that may be well on its way to spelling their end: the Anthropocene.
https://phys.org/news/2024-08-retreating-andean-world-glaciers-faster.html
reporting on a study at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adg7546Atlantic Ocean currents could collapse as early as the 2030s, new research suggests
Several studies in recent years have suggested the crucial Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, could be on course for collapse, weakened by warmer ocean temperatures and disrupted saltiness caused by human-induced climate change. But the new research, which is being peer-reviewed, uses a state-of-the-art model to estimate when it could collapse, suggesting a shutdown could happen between 2037 and 2064. This research suggests it’s more likely than not to collapse by 2050 ... An AMOC collapse “is a really big danger that we should do everything we can to avoid,” said Stefan Rahmstorf, a physical oceanographer at Potsdam University in Germany who was not involved in the latest research. “Until a few years ago, we were discussing whether it would happen at all, as a kind of low-probability, high-impact risk [but] now it looks a lot more likely than just a few years ago that this will happen. Now people are starting to close in on when it will happen.” While the advances in AMOC research have been swift and the models that try to predict its collapse have advanced at lightning speed, they are still not without issues. For example, the models don’t take into consideration a critical factor in the AMOC’s demise — melting Greenland ice. Massive amounts of fresh water are sloughing off the ice sheet and flowing into the North Atlantic, which disrupts one of the circulation’s driving forces: salt. “You’re already getting a huge influx of fresh water into the northern Atlantic, which is going to completely disrupt the system,” Rahmstorf said. This research gap means the predictions could underestimate how soon or fast a collapse would happen, Rahmstof said.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/02/climate/atlantic-circulation-collapse-timing/index.html
reporting on a study at https://arxiv.org/html/2406.11738v1How India's vulture apocalypse led to the deaths of half a million people
The sudden collapse of India’s vulture population has led to more than half a million excess human deaths in the last five years, according to a peer-reviewed study in the American Economic Review. A flock of vultures can pick a carcass clean in a matter of minutes, purging the environment of harmful pathogens and preventing the spread of deadly diseases. But in the 1990s, vulture populations on the Indian subcontinent plummeted by a staggering 99 per cent – the fastest decline of a bird species in recorded history. For years, scientists were baffled by the sudden extinction. It was only in 2004 that diclofenac – a cheap painkiller widely used to treat cattle that is deadly to vultures if they ingest it – was identified as the cause. The drug was then banned across South Asia in 2006, after it was discovered that even tiny traces of it could cause devastation to bird populations [but] governments in Europe and South Asia are still failing to sufficiently regulate veterinary drugs to protect vultures. Seven out of 11 of the vulture species found in Africa, responsible for cleaning up 70 per cent of the continent’s carrion, are now on the verge of extinction. Diclofenac is also still in circulation ... “We are introducing a lot of toxins into the environment and introducing a lot of changes to habitats ... but if we don’t broaden [our risk assessment] beyond what directly harms human beings then we’re going to risk seeing more and more of these [extinctions] ... and it’s not easy to reverse,” he warned.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/climate-and-people/india-vulture-extinction-led-to-half-a-million-human-deaths/
reporting on a study at https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/BFI_WP_2022-165.pdfThe Hidden Ways Extreme Heat Disrupts Infrastructure
Infrastructure across the U.S. is struggling under the climate crisis. Heat-induced infrastructure problems can arise not only in places such as Arizona, where temperatures can be brutal, but also in traditionally cooler locations such as the Pacific Northwest that are seeing warmer temperatures than ever before [because] It’s not the absolute temperature that matters so much as how far the temperature is outside of engineers’ expectations when infrastructure was built ... Some infrastructure can be hit by compound issues. Power lines at full capacity can sag in high heat, which becomes a fire risk [so] grid managers reduce the amount of energy flowing through the lines. Power plants rely on safety mechanisms that use water to keep systems cool. But in hot weather, this water starts out much warmer and can’t absorb as much heat, forcing managers to slow energy production to keep the system safe [yet] energy demand soars because people rely on power-hungry air-conditioning to stay safe from the heat ... “When you have these heat waves in the summer, things tend to break a lot more frequently,” says Mikhail Chester, a civil engineer at Arizona State University.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-extreme-heat-harms-planes-trains-water-mains-and-other-crucial/US heat wave builds from coast to coast, worsening wildfires
[July 2024 was] not just the hottest July on record for many cities in the US West but the hottest month overall since records began ... A potentially deadly [August] heat wave is expanding from the Central US to both coasts, with 104 million people under heat warnings and advisories early Friday. The extreme heat poses an acute public health risk, particularly since it will last more than a week in some places. It will also cause an uptick in fire risks in the West, where large, fast-moving and deadly wildfires are already burning ... The heat index is likely to max out in the humid Mississippi River Valley during this event at around 115°F. "The combination of hot temperatures/high heat indices, as well as very warm morning lows only dropping into the mid- to upper 70s, will be dangerous to anyone without access to adequate air conditioning."
https://www.axios.com/2024/08/01/heat-wave-intensifies-worsening-wildfiresThe methane imperative
Anthropogenic methane (CH4) emissions increases from the period 1850–1900 until 2019 are responsible for around 65% as much warming as carbon dioxide (CO2) has caused to date, and large reductions in methane emissions are required to limit global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C. However, methane emissions have been increasing rapidly since ~2006. This study shows that emissions are expected to continue to increase over the remainder of the 2020s if no greater action is taken and that increases in atmospheric methane are thus far outpacing projected growth rates.
https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/science/articles/10.3389/fsci.2024.1349770/fullGreatly enhanced risk to humans as a consequence of empirically determined lower moist heat stress tolerance
Increased heat and humidity potentially threaten people and societies. Here, we incorporate our laboratory-measured, physiologically based wet-bulb temperature thresholds across a range of air temperatures and relative humidities, to project future heat stress risk ... Some of the most populated regions, typically lower-middle income countries in the moist tropics and subtropics, violate this threshold well before 3C of warming ... future moist heat extremes will lie outside the bounds of past human experience and beyond current heat mitigation strategies for billions of people.
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2305427120Can Gouda’s Cheesemakers Stall a Sinking Future?
The small city where the renowned Dutch cheese is made is subsiding as sea levels rise.
Increased rainfall and rising sea levels — a consequence of climate change — threaten to flood the river delta in which it sits. “We’re not in good shape,” said Gilles Erkens, a professor at Utrecht University and the head of a team focused on land subsidence ... Much of the Netherlands was built centuries ago on peat marsh, a spongy soil that compresses easily. In Gouda, it is constantly subsiding under the weight of the city, said Michel Klijmij-van der Laan, a city alderman who focuses on sustainability and subsidence issues ... Mr. Rotmans, the Erasmus University professor, said the country needed to develop a radical new approach within 10 years, adding that he was frustrated by the lack of urgency given that the region is low-lying and has such a high density of people, cows and industry. [But] few residents seemed concerned about the future. Dutch water engineers are famous for their water management skills because they have built a whole country on marshland, using an intricate system of dams, dikes and canals. “We have to take measures, but it’s not like we’re going to drown here in a couple of years. In the Netherlands, we’ve always done water management, and we always will.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/01/world/europe/netherlands-gouda-climate.htmlFood as You Know It Is About to Change
Rates of undernourishment have grown 21 percent since 2017. Agricultural yields are [not] growing as quickly as demand is booming. Obesity has continued to rise, and the average micronutrient content of dozens of popular vegetables has continued to fall ... More than three-quarters of the population of Africa, which has already surpassed one billion, cannot today afford a healthy diet [and] there has been little agricultural productivity growth there for 20 years. Over the same time period, there hasn’t been much growth in the United States either ... food scarcity is driving record levels of human displacement and migration [but] the climate threats to come loom even larger ... over a 30-year time horizon, the insurer Lloyd’s recently estimated a 50 percent chance of what it called a “major” global food shock. But disruption is only half the story and perhaps much less than that ... Partly this is a matter of sheer scale. More than one-third of the planet’s land is used to produce food, and 70 percent of all fresh water is used to irrigate farmland ... but adding farmland means cutting down forests, which store carbon, in order to graze more animals, which produce carbon ... A few years ago, it was possible to imagine a suite of solutions that both addressed the problem of emissions from food production and pivoted away from industrial agriculture [but such] practices now look less like miracle cures ... three-quarters of all global agricultural land is vulnerable to substantial climate disruptions, NASA’s Jonas Jägermeyr says ... there’s no magic-bullet solution, he says: We need a bundle of innovations and interventions. And innovation at this scale doesn’t just happen at the snap of a finger [but] only after a decade or two of scientific, political, social and economic germination (and often difficulty). Even where politics are relatively stable, market incentives are often perverse, infrastructure often insufficient and support systems lacking ... Jägermeyr calls it “the challenge of our generation” — how to save the food system from what he calls a 'quadruple squeeze.' “It’s pretty complicated,” he admits. “And the scary part is that we have to solve them all.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/28/opinion/food-climate-crisis-prices.html
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-021-00400-y.epdfUS home insurers suffer worst loss this century
Insurers providing policies to homeowners suffered a $15.2bn net underwriting loss last year [2023], according to figures from rating agency AM Best, a figure it said was the worst since at least 2000 and more than double the previous year’s losses. The figures lay bare the underwriting conditions that have sparked a pullback by US insurers from disaster-hit areas, either exiting markets or driving up prices ... “The industry is facing rapidly escalating coverage demands while insured losses are skyrocketing,” said Robert Gordon, senior vice-president of policy, research and international at the American Property Casualty Insurance Association, a trade body. “If insurers cannot appropriately price business in a timely manner, markets rapidly deteriorate.”
https://www.ft.com/content/09a37793-7bea-4c90-a47f-4536405458e3Severe heatwave in Iran forces shops and public institutions to close
A heatwave blanketing Iran has forced authorities to cut operating hours at various facilities on Saturday and order all government and commercial institutions to close ... temperatures ranged from 37C (98.6F) to 42C (107F) in the capital, Tehran, according to weather reports ... Sadegh Ziaian, an official at the National Meteorological Organisation, was quoted by Mehr as saying temperatures exceeded 45C (113F) in 10 Iranian provinces on Saturday, with the highest temperature of 49.7C (121F) recorded in Delgan.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/27/severe-heatwave-in-iran-forces-shops-and-public-institutions-to-closeMulti-year drought and heat waves across Mexico in 2024
Nearly 76 percent of the country was experiencing drought through the end of May 2024 [making this] the most widespread drought Mexico has experienced since 2011, when just over 85 percent of the country was affected ... Heat waves also started quite early this year, with the country’s first impactful heat wave occurring in April. A second heat wave occurred in May, and a third started at the end of May and continued into June. May and June were both exceptionally hot, ranking as the warmest May and June on record for the country. In May, more than 60 percent of the country recorded monthly temperature anomalies more than 3 degrees Celsius [and] more than 80 high-temperature records were broken.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/multi-year-drought-and-heat-waves-across-mexico-2024Extreme Wildfires Are Getting More Extreme and Occurring More Often
The world’s most energetic wildfires have doubled in intensity and number over the past 2 decades, with climate change and land management likely to blame
Cunningham and his colleagues mapped the intensity of more than 30 million wildfire events [while] homing in on the most intense burns. “That heat energy directly relates to the amount of biomass burned and the emissions released,” explained Cunningham. “It’s essentially a measure of environmental damage” ... 6 of the past 7 years experienced the highest number of extreme fires. Last year saw the most extreme fires and was also the hottest year on record. That uptick in extreme fires fits with existing observations of worsening fire activity ... the global trend was driven by a dramatic worsening of extreme wildfires in the western United States, Canada, and Russia [with] an elevenfold increase in extreme fires in the coniferous forests of North America since 2003. High-latitude boreal forests experienced a sevenfold increase over the same period. “Climate change is unambiguously making the conditions required for an extreme fire more common,” said Cunningham.
https://eos.org/articles/extreme-wildfires-are-getting-more-extreme-and-occurring-more-often
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-024-02452-2Hottest Day On Earth Recorded, Again
The record set on Sunday for the planet’s hottest day ever lasted just a single day, as another record was set on Monday as a series of summer heat waves blister North America and scientists warn human-caused greenhouse gas emissions could accelerate the pace of climate change ... The consecutive record-breaking days come as scientists warn about devastating and long-range effects of human-induced climate change, which has been linked to exacerbated heat waves, more intense major storm systems, sea-level rise and prolonged drought. In a statement Tuesday, Copernicus director Carlo Buontempo said “we are now in truly uncharted territory and as the climate keeps warming, we are bound to see new records being broken in future months and years.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbushard/2024/07/24/hottest-day-on-earth-planet-breaks-record-twice-this-week-amid-historic-heat-waves/UK getting more hot and more wet days
Climate change is dramatically increasing the frequency of extreme high temperatures in the UK, new Met Office analysis has confirmed. Its annual State of the Climate report says data from 2023 shows the country is experiencing significantly more really hot days. Its observations suggest there has been an increase in the number of really wet days too ... "The statistics in this report really do speak for themselves," said lead author and Met Office climate scientist, Mike Kendon. "The climate is not just going to change in the future, it is already changing." The new report confirms 2023 was the second warmest year on record for the UK, had the hottest June ever recorded and the joint warmest September. Separate studies by Met Office scientists found all these events were made much more likely to happen because of human-induced climate change.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c147v82gxp2o
reporting on a study at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/about/state-of-climateIn the Andes, mountain guides bear witness to shrinking glaciers
The route to the top is still the same path paved by the Incas [but] now the mountain is crumbling. Rising global temperatures due to climate change have led the glacier to retreat and the permafrost to melt. New lagoons have formed and ruptured, landslides have injured climbers and massive sinkholes have opened up, breaking up the ancient path to the summit. Gallardo said his family has been working at El Plomo for generations, but he thinks they have about a decade left ... “The changes we're seeing are unprecedented in recent human history,” said Pablo Wainstein, a civil engineer who has studied Andean and Arctic glaciers and permafrost for more than two decades. “If permafrost degrades, it's not ‘cementing’ anymore the ground and it leads to more rockfalls in mountainous terrain,” Wainstein said ... “When I am gone and you are gone, everything’s going to be lost,” Villegas said. “There were places in Patagonia I went to that were all glacier, now it’s forest. And that’s how it’s going to be.” Wainstein said such changes are consistent with scientific predictions. The Andes mountain range is the longest in the world and has some of the fastest-disappearing ice packs.
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/andes-climate-change-mountaineering/
reporting on a study at https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0303243418303714Great Salt Lake dry-up increasing greenhouse gas emissions: Study
As the Great Salt Lake falls prey to human-induced drought conditions, its increasingly exposed seabed is emitting greenhouse gases and accelerating climate change, a new study has found. About 4.1 million tons of such gases were released from the dried-out lake floor in 2020 alone, with carbon dioxide making up 94 percent of those emissions, according to the study, published on Thursday in One Earth. “Human-caused desiccation of Great Salt Lake is exposing huge areas of lake bed and releasing massive quantities of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere,” lead author Soren Brothers, climate change curator at the Royal Ontario Museum, said in a statement ... the ever-increasing volumes of human-related water consumption — via agriculture, industry, mining and municipal uses — are responsible for depleting the lake, according to the researchers. Similar circumstances affect other saline basins around the world, such as the Aral Sea, Lake Urmia and the Caspian Sea — destroying critical habitats for area biodiversity, creating dust-filled air pollution and emitting carbon dioxide and methane, per the study.
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4792826-great-salt-lake-seabed-greenhouse-gas-emissions-study
see also https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/07/25/great-salt-lake-emissions/
reporting on a study at https://www.cell.com/one-earth/fulltext/S2590-3322(24)00326-9China’s extreme weather raises alarm about the country’s disaster insurance gaps
China, which already lags developed countries in insurance penetration, needs to do more in expanding catastrophe insurance coverage, insurance industry specialists said. “There are areas where China’s insurers need to catch up, particularly in addressing emerging risks associated with climate change,” [said] Peggy Ding, placement leader at Marsh China ... This is a timely reminder as a series of natural disasters hit China, where only around 10 per cent of the losses from natural disasters are covered by insurance. Several parts of China, including southern Guangdong province, southwestern Sichuan, and eastern Henan province, have been grappling with devastating floods after prolonged rainfalls since this summer.
https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3271306/chinas-extreme-weather-raises-alarm-about-countrys-disaster-insurance-gapsBirth rates in rich countries halve to hit record low
The average number of children per woman across the 38 most industrialised countries has fallen from 3.3 in 1960 to 1.5 in 2022, according to a study by the OECD [which is] well below the “replacement level” of 2.1 children per woman ... even family-friendly policies are unlikely to raise birth rates to replacement levels, said Adema ... a fall in birth rates in countries with extensive policies to support families, such as Finland, France and Norway, “has been a big surprise”, said Wolfgang Lutz, founding director of the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital in Vienna.
https://www.ft.com/content/f0d2a5a7-e5ef-4044-8380-ff690b609a5a
reporting on a study at https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/society-at-a-glance-2024_918d8db3-en/full-report/component-5.html#chapter-d1e616-e39b6607d6As a baby bust hits rural areas, hospital labor and delivery wards are closing down
At least 41 Iowa hospitals have shuttered their labor and delivery units since 2000 [representing] about a third of Iowa hospitals ... Similar trends are playing out nationwide, as hospitals struggle to maintain staff and facilities to safely handle dwindling numbers of births. More than half of rural U.S. hospitals now lack labor and delivery services. "People just aren't having as many kids," said Addie Comegys, who lives in southern Iowa ... The baby boom peaked in 1957, when about 4.3 million children were born in the United States. The annual number of births had dropped below 3.7 million by 2022, even though the overall U.S. population nearly doubled over that same period.
https://www.npr.org/sections/shots-health-news/2024/07/12/nx-s1-5036878/rural-hospitals-labor-delivery-health-care-shortage-birthFertility declines, tapering populations, soaring life expectancies: What the U.N. population report shows about us and our future on this planet
Fertility rates around the world are dropping quicker than expected ... More than 60 countries and territories have already peaked in population, including Italy, Japan, Russia and, in 2021, China, according to the report published Thursday ... The global fertility rate is currently 2.25 births per woman, one child per woman less than in 1990. More than half of all countries have a fertility rate less than 2.1 births per woman, or what’s known as the “replacement rate,” because it’s the number of children that each woman would need to have, on average, to keep the population from declining.
https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/graphics-2024-united-nations-world-population-prospects-report-data-rcna160017
reporting on a study at https://population.un.org/wpp/Nanoplastics and ‘Forever Chemicals’ Disrupt Molecular Structures, Functionality
Researchers at The University of Texas at El Paso have made significant inroads in understanding how nanoplastics and per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) — commonly known as forever chemicals — disrupt biomolecular structure and function ... forever chemicals are manmade [endocrine disruptors] present throughout the environment; a series of recent studies have linked them to numerous negative health outcomes ... their research revealed that nanoplastics and PFAS completely “dissolved” a region of proteins known as the alpha helix, converting them into structures called beta sheets. The team observed that this alteration also occurs in amyloid proteins, which can cause neurodegeneration and neurotoxic outcomes if the synthetic chemicals reach the brain.
https://www.utep.edu/newsfeed/2024/nanoplastics-and-forever-chemicals-disrupt-molecular-structures-functionality.html
reporting on a study at https://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/jacs.4c02934
reporting on a study at https://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/acsami.4c03008‘Everyone is drinking it’: Why this type of ‘forever chemical’ seems to be everywhere
“TFA is in all the drinking water. You are drinking it right now. Everyone’s drinking it.”
A growing body of research has raised concerns about a forever chemical known as TFA, which ... has been found in increasing amounts in rainwater, groundwater and drinking water ... [known endocrine disruptor] PFAS in general have been linked to several kinds of cancer; infertility; high cholesterol; low birth weights; and negative effects on the liver, thyroid and immune system.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/07/13/tfa-forever-chemical-pfasExtreme Heat Is Causing Billions in Damages That Insurers Won’t Cover
Heat waves have become more intense, longer lasting and three times as frequent as they were 60 years ago, according to government data. The upward trend is expected to persist as climate change makes more areas vulnerable to the record-breaking temperatures of recent weeks. Standard insurance policies are designed for sudden and accidental damages, such as those caused by fires, storms and theft, and often don’t cover the effects of intense heat ... Heat can also stunt the quality of and volume of crops, losses that may not be apparent until harvest.
https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/extreme-heat-waves-insurance-claims-8a74987eHuman Impacts Dominate Global Loss of Lake Ecosystem Resilience
[A study of] 1,049 lakes worldwide during 2000–2018 ... indicate that 46.7% of lakes are experiencing a significant decline in resilience, particularly since the early 2010s, closely associated with higher human population density and anthropogenic eutrophication.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024GL109298Aquatic deoxygenation as a planetary boundary and key regulator of Earth system stability
Planetary boundaries are interconnected such that movement of one planetary boundary process can alter the likelihood of crossing other boundaries ... the rapid and ongoing deoxygenation of Earth’s aquatic habitats indicates that relevant, critical oxygen thresholds are being approached at rates comparable to other planetary boundary processes ... crossing the deoxygenation boundary threshold would have substantial impacts on other planetary boundary processes ... Widespread deoxygenation is likely to continue for decades to centuries [and] ongoing global environmental changes are expected to push deoxygenation—along with several other planetary boundary processes—towards or beyond critical thresholds.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-024-02448-y.epdfTracking a large-scale and highly toxic Arctic algal bloom
The paralytic shellfish toxins (PSTs) that this species produces have been detected throughout the food web. These observations have raised significant concerns about the role that harmful algal blooms (HABs) will play in a rapidly changing Arctic ... The bloom was exceptional in both spatial scale and density [and] represented a striking example of northward bloom advection from subpolar waters, as well as eastward penetration into Alaskan Coastal waters due to local wind forcing; this mixing of nutrient-rich western Bering Sea water with the warm coastal current likely created favorable temperature and nutrient conditions for A. catenella growth and accumulation.
https://aslopubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/lol2.10421
see also https://www.science.org/content/article/warming-oceans-are-pushing-harmful-algal-blooms-polar-watersRadar Data Show Thwaites Gets a Daily Bath of Warm Seawater
Daily tides bring warm ocean water farther in beneath West Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier than previously thought, potentially causing ice to melt faster than expected, according to a new study. Most ice sheet simulations have not accurately predicted Thwaites’s recent retreat because they assume that a glacier’s grounding line is fixed. But recent research on Thwaites and other glaciers has shown that these boundaries between floating ice and ice that is grounded on the seafloor shift [because] the ice rose and sank in sync with the tides. The data suggested that the grounding line migrated up to 6 kilometers (3.7 miles) inland during an average high tide. When the tides were particularly high, the glacier’s uplift suggested that a thin layer of seawater up to 10 centimeters (4 inches) deep pushed another 6 kilometers (3.7 miles) inland. The researchers think that this extra water may be causing more melting than current estimates predict because it replaces cold melted fresh water that lines the base of the glacier with warmer, salty seawater.
https://eos.org/articles/radar-data-show-thwaites-gets-a-daily-bath-of-warm-seawaterNew Study Uncovers Key Error in Climate Models: Earth’s Albedo Overestimated
“Ice reflectivity was much too high.”
In a study published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, a team led by researchers from the UC Irvine Department of Earth System Science and the University of Michigan Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering reveal how a climate model commonly used by geoscientists currently overestimates a key physical property of Earth’s climate system ... The amount of sunlight the planet receives and reflects is important for estimating just how much the planet will warm in the coming years ... with the new ice reflectivity incorporated into the model, the Greenland Ice Sheet is melting at a rate of about six gigatons more than in older model versions. This is based on albedo measurements that are more consistent with satellite observations.
https://scitechdaily.com/new-study-uncovers-key-error-in-climate-models-earths-albedo-overestimated/
reporting on a study at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023JD040241Global temperatures reach Paris Agreement target of 1.5C above average for 12 months in a row
Global temperatures have now reached or broken the Paris Agreement threshold for 12 months in a row. According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, run by the EU, June was 1.5 degrees Celsius exactly above pre-industrial levels. It was also Earth's hottest June on record, with the month marked by several deadly heatwaves which spanned large parts of the northern hemisphere ... director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service Carlo Buontempo said it was "more than a statistical oddity", highlighting a large and continuing shift in our climate. "Even if this specific streak of extremes ends at some point, we are bound to see new records being broken as the climate continues to warm," he said. "This is inevitable, unless we stop adding greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and the oceans. "
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-08/temperatures-1-5c-above-pre-industrial-era-average-for-12-months/104054910
see also https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-june-2024-marks-12th-month-global-temperature-reaching-15degc-above-pre-industrialAs climate shifts, a leafhopper bug plagues Argentina's corn fields
Global warming has brought Argentina's corn farmers a dangerous new enemy: a yellow insect just four millimeters (0.16 inch) long that thrives in hotter temperatures and is threatening harvests of the crop ... The world's No. 3 corn exporting country has slashed millions of tons from its harvest projections for the current crop ... Farmers fear such infestations could become more regular, with fewer frosts in recent years to check the insect's spread, and forecasts for a warm winter ahead ... "We all suspect that it still could get much worse than what we're seeing," he added. "It's a big blow to corn." According to Russo, leafhopper numbers in northern Argentina are 10 times the normal level, while the insect has been found nearly 1,500 kilometers (932 miles) south of traditional areas, where previously it had been too cold.
https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/climate-shifts-leafhopper-bug-plagues-argentinas-corn-fields-2024-05-07/Flooding in northern Bangladesh displaces 40,000 people
Flooding in Bangladesh has swept away homes and shut schools, displacing tens of thousands of people, the Disaster and Relief Ministry said on July 9, and a forecast for more heavy rain over the next few days is expected to worsen the situation. Some 40,000 people are taking refuge at government shelters ... Television footage showed inundated roads, broken bridges and dams, as well as villagers wading through knee-deep water ... "Bangladeshis are used to flooding, but the water is coming up so high and so quickly in low-lying areas that people are being forced to shelter on anything, even rafts made of banana trees," said Mr Liakath Ali, head of climate change programme at development agency Brac ... “Heavy rain in the Indian upstream region means that the suffering is far from over,” said Mr Rezwanul Rahman, the head of Bangladesh’s disaster management department.
https://www.banglanews24.com/english/national/news/bd/151192.detailsDiurnally [day/night] asymmetric cloud cover trends amplify greenhouse warming
Less daytime cloud cover lets more heat in, but heavier nighttime cloud cover traps the created heat
Global cloud cover, particularly low-level cloudiness, exhibits diurnally asymmetric trends in a warming climate. During daytime, clouds tend to cool the surface by blocking sunlight, while during nighttime clouds warm the surface by trapping heat. We find that on average daytime is less cloudy than at night, and this asymmetry acts as an amplifier of surface warming, by both decreasing the daytime cloud albedo and increasing the nighttime cloud heat-trapping greenhouse effect.
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.ado5179Devastation as world’s biggest wetland burns: ‘those that cannot run don’t stand a chance’
More than 760,000 hectares (1.8m acres) have already burned across the the Brazilian Pantanal in 2024, as fires surge to the highest levels since 2020, the worst year on record. From January to July, blazes increased by 1,500% compared with the same period last year. “We expect it is only going to get worse” ... the Pantanal covers 16.9m hectares (42m acres) and houses a host of vulnerable and endangered species. With the blazes starting unusually early this year – in late May and early June, before the annual fire season between July and September – experts predict 2024 will be the most devastating in decades ... humans start the vast majority of wildfires. Ranchers use fires to clear land for their cattle – as they have for centuries – but those that were once contained by the wetland’s abundant water now rage out of control. More than 90% of the Pantanal is privately owned, of which 80% is used for cattle ranching. Almost 95% of outbreaks in the first half of 2024 started in private areas. The wetlands have lost 68% of their water area since 1985.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/09/devastation-as-worlds-biggest-wetland-burns-those-that-cannot-run-dont-stand-a-chance-brazil-pantanalThe dawn of the Antarctic ice sheets
In recent years global warming has left its mark on the Antarctic ice sheets. The "eternal" ice in Antarctica is melting faster than previously assumed, particularly in West Antarctica more than East Antarctica. The root for this could lie in its formation ... permanent glaciation of Antarctica began around 34 million years ago – but did not encompass the entire continent as previously assumed, but rather was confined to the eastern region of the continent (East Antarctica). It was not until at least 7 million years later that ice was able to advance towards West Antarctic coasts. The results of the new study show how substantially differently East and West Antarctica react to external forcing ... This is of crucial importance, as Johann Klages who led the research team says: “Especially in light of the fact that we could be facing such a fundamental climate change again in the near future.”
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1050173
reporting on a study at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adj3931China warns of hotter, longer heatwaves as climate change intensifies
In its annual climate "Blue Book", the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) warned that maximum temperatures across the country could rise by 1.7-2.8 degrees Celsius within 30 years, with eastern China and the northwestern region of Xinjiang set to suffer the most. Last year, average national temperatures hit a new high, leading to record levels of glacial retreat and melting permafrost in the northwest, the Blue Book said. China describes itself as one of the world's most climate-vulnerable countries, and it is coming under increasing pressure to adapt to rapidly changing weather patterns and sea levels that are rising faster than the global average ... Yuan Jiashuang, vice-director of the CMA's National Climate Centre [said] if emissions remained high, extreme heat events expected to occur once every fifty years in China could happen every other year by the end of the century, and rainfall could double and become more unpredictable.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-weather-authority-warns-high-summer-temperatures-2024-07-04/What is the wet bulb temperature? And why is it so important?
This number can measure how dangerous a heat wave is for you
Amid extraordinary sweltering temperatures, an old measure of heat risk is getting some renewed attention: the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT). It tracks temperature, humidity, and sunlight, and it’s shown that it can better warn against the dangers of hot weather than temperature alone. The upper limit wet-bulb temperature for human survival is considered to be 95 degrees Fahrenheit for young, healthy people, but in the recent heat wave in India, the WBGT reached 100 degrees ... Most human bodies operate within a narrow temperature band around 98.6 degrees Fahrenheit. “All your biochemistry and physiology, the function, is optimized for that temperature,” explained W. Jon Williams, a research physiologist at the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health. As a consequence, the human body devotes a lot of resources to holding steady at this temperature. “If it’s dry enough, if the humidity is low enough, [sweating] is an extremely efficient way of taking body heat away to the environment,” Williams said. However, as humidity increases, the cooling effectiveness of sweating decreases since sweat doesn’t evaporate as readily. If heat and humidity rise in tandem, that increases the chances of the body’s temperature rising too. And if surrounding temperatures are hotter than 98.6 degrees Fahrenheit, the body ends up absorbing heat from the environment. Too much heat in the body can quickly lead to complications [and] if the core body temperature rises past 104 degrees Fahrenheit, it can cause heat stroke, a life-threatening condition where organs shut down ... According to the US Marine Corps, WBGT is “the most effective means of assessing the effect of heat stress on the human body” ... The point of the damp thermometer is to simulate how well sweat can evaporate under the present conditions. The longer the thermometer stays wet as temperatures rise, the more humid the surrounding air, and thus the more difficult it is to cool off by sweating.
https://www.vox.com/climate/354977/heat-wave-wet-bulb-temperature-climateStudy Finds Alaskan Ice Field Melting at an ‘Incredibly Worrying’ Pace
One of North America’s largest areas of interconnected glaciers is melting twice as quickly as it did before 2010, a team of scientists said Tuesday, in what they called an “incredibly worrying” sign that land ice in many places could disappear even sooner than previously thought. The Juneau Ice Field, which sprawls across the Coast Mountains of Alaska and British Columbia, lost 1.4 cubic miles of ice a year between 2010 and 2020, the researchers estimated. That’s a sharp acceleration from the decades before, and even sharper when compared with the mid-20th century or earlier, the scientists said. All told, the ice field has shed a quarter of its volume since the late 18th century ... As societies add more and more planet-warming carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, glaciers in many areas could cross tipping points beyond which their melting speeds up rapidly, said Bethan Davies, a glaciologist at Newcastle University in England who led the new research ... The changes they’ve uncovered are sweeping. Every one of the ice field’s glaciers receded between 1770 and 2019, the scientists found. More than 100 glaciers disappeared entirely. Nearly 50 new lakes formed as glaciers melted and the water pooled.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/02/climate/alaska-juneau-icefield-melting.html
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-49269-ySubstantial contribution of slush to meltwater area across Antarctic ice shelves
Surface melting occurs across many of Antarctica’s ice shelves, mainly during the austral summer. The onset, duration, area and fate of surface melting varies spatially and temporally, and the resultant surface meltwater is stored as ponded water (lakes) or as slush (saturated firn or snow) ... slush and ponded water occupy roughly equal areas of Antarctica’s ice shelves in January [suggesting] that studies that neglect slush may substantially underestimate the area of ice shelves covered by surface meltwater. Furthermore, we found that adjusting the surface albedo in a regional climate model to account for the lower albedo of surface meltwater resulted in 2.8 times greater snowmelt across five representative ice shelves. This extra melt is currently unaccounted for in regional climate models, which may lead to underestimates in projections of ice-sheet melting and ice-shelf stability.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-024-01466-6Projections of an ice-free Arctic Ocean
Observed Arctic sea ice losses are a sentinel of anthropogenic climate change. These reductions are projected to continue with ongoing warming, ultimately leading to an ice-free Arctic (sea ice area <1 million km2) ... In the September monthly mean, the earliest ice-free conditions (the first single occurrence of an ice-free Arctic) could occur in 2020–2030s under all emission trajectories and are likely to occur by 2050. However, daily September ice-free conditions are expected approximately 4 years earlier on average, with the possibility of preceding monthly metrics by 10 years. Consistently ice-free September conditions (frequent occurrences of an ice-free Arctic) are anticipated by mid-century (by 2035–2067).
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-023-00515-9The return of the ozone crisis: Why Earth’s atmospheric hole poses a huge threat (again)
The ozone layer is still suffering from severe seasonal depletion, and proposed geoengineering techniques will make it worse
There is no life without our ozone layer [which] absorbs the most powerful, damaging ultraviolet rays and essentially prevents living things from being killed by the power of the Sun. Back in the 1980s scientists in Antarctica discovered [that] human-made chemicals were mixing with ozone molecules and destroying them. Fortunately, the world paid attention ... world leaders signed an international treaty at a summit in Montreal to phase out those ozone-depleting chemicals. Now, four decades on, research has shown that human activity risks putting that global achievement in jeopardy ... in recent years, the hole has remained until December, well into the Antarctic summer, which is when plants and animals are much more vulnerable ... beginning of summer is also the peak breeding season for many animals, so it’s a particularly vulnerable time in their lifecycle. The reason for this extended period of potentially deadly ozone loss is simple: climate change. Catastrophic global warming fuelled wildfires ... released clouds of particles into the atmosphere that drove more of the ozone-eating reactions that have historically done so much damage. Ironically, there are some proposed climate-cooling experiments – so-called geoengineering techniques – that propose ‘making clouds’ by releasing sulphate particles into the upper atmosphere. This would also deplete ozone, so, as Robinson put it: “It’s a bad idea.”
https://www.sciencefocus.com/nature/ozone-layer-environment
see also https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jun/28/the-vanishing-ozone-layer-cfcs-1974Hurricane Beryl’s Unprecedented Intensification Is an ‘Omen’ for the Rest of the Season [and the future]
A new tropical depression formed in the Atlantic Ocean last Friday. A mere two days later it had become a monstrous Category 4 hurricane, which made landfall in Grenada’s island of Carriacou on Monday. By late that evening local time, the storm, named Beryl, was a Category 5 hurricane, the earliest ever in the Atlantic Ocean basin. The occurrence of such rapid intensification this early in the Atlantic hurricane season and in that location has left meteorologists agog. “Beryl is rewriting the history books in all the wrong ways,” wrote Eric Blake, a senior hurricane scientist at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) ... it likely won’t be the only exceptional hurricane this season, given the overall favorable conditions for storms to develop—especially the extremely warm ocean waters. “I think it is kind of an omen of what the hurricane season will be,” says Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami. “I think we will see some pretty amazing outlier events happen.” Prior to the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1, the NHC forecast that 17 to 25 named storms will likely occur by the time that season ends on November 30. (Storms receive a name once they reach tropical or subtropical storm strength, meaning they have winds of at least 39 miles per hour.) Of those, eight to 13 are expected to become hurricanes. And four to seven of those hurricanes will likely strengthen into major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). This is the highest number of named storms the NHC has ever predicted ... Before Beryl, there has never been a hurricane known to form this far east in June, McNoldy says ... Beryl also became the earliest Category 4 hurricane on record for the Atlantic; the previous record-holder was Hurricane Dennis on July 8, 2005—during another blockbuster season. On late Monday evening Beryl beat another record from that season (the same year that produced Hurricane Katrina), becoming the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record by two weeks. The previous earliest Category 5 was Hurricane Emily on July 16, 2005. “That is not a couple of years that you want to be breaking records of,” McNoldy says. Beryl is also the strongest Atlantic hurricane to occur in July on record, with 165 mph maximum wind speeds ... The only other comparable storms have occurred near or at the peak of the Atlantic season in August and September, when there is abundant ocean heat to fuel the convection that drives hurricanes. Rapid intensification is defined as when a storm’s winds jump by at least 35 mph in 24 hours. Beryl’s exploded by 63 mph over that same period. Several studies suggest more storms will undergo rapid intensification—and at faster rates—as the climate continues to warm.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-hurricane-beryl-underwent-unprecedented-rapid-intensification/Toxic PFAS absorbed through skin at levels higher than previously thought
Absorption through skin could be ‘significant source of exposure’ to toxic forever chemicals, study shows New research “for the first time proves” toxic PFAS forever chemicals are absorbed through human skin, and at levels much higher than previously thought ... PFAS are a class of about 16,000 compounds used to make products resistant to water, stains and heat. They are called “forever chemicals” because they do not naturally break down and have been found to accumulate in humans. These [endocrine disruptor] chemicals are linked to cancer, birth defects, liver disease, thyroid disease, plummeting sperm counts and a range of other serious health problems.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jun/30/pfas-absorbed-skin-studyExtreme Wildfires Are Twice as Common as They Were 20 Years Ago
The frequency at which extreme fires occur around the world has more than doubled during the past two decades ... driven by the exponential growth of extreme fires across vast portions of Canada, the western United States and Russia [and] climate change is almost certainly a factor. “It’s the extreme events that we care about the most, and those are the ones that are increasing quite significantly,” says lead author Calum Cunningham, an ecologist at the University of Tasmania in Hobart, Australia. For the current study, published in Nature Ecology and Evolution, Cunningham and his colleagues scoured global satellite data for fire activity. They used infrared records to measure the energy intensity of nearly 31 million daily fire events over two decades, focusing on the most extreme ones — roughly 2,900 events. The researchers calculated that there was a 2.2-fold increase in the frequency of extreme events globally in 2003–23, and a 2.3-fold boost in the average intensity of the top 20 most intense fires each year.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/extreme-wildfires-are-twice-as-common-as-they-were-20-years-ago
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-02071-8What your gut has in common with Arctic permafrost, and why it’s a troubling sign for climate change
Permafrost, the frozen earth that covers roughly a quarter of the Northern Hemisphere, traps an enormous amount of planet-heating carbon — 2.5 times the amount currently in the atmosphere. But as the ground thaws, the microbial community in the soil wakes up and begins to eat away at the trapped organic material, releasing all that buried carbon into the atmosphere as greenhouse gases, which, in turn, trap even more heat around the planet. In a self-perpetuating feedback loop, the warmer it gets, the more active soil microbes become. And new research suggests that scientists might have not realized just how much of that carbon-sinking permafrost is at risk: Twice the estimated amount of carbon could be on offer for hungry microbes to decompose, which could lead to increased emissions. “We were surprised that some of the exact pathways that exist in the human gut were shared by totally different organisms,” said Kelly Wrighton, a microbiology professor at Colorado State University who leads the lab behind the study, which was published last month in the journal Nature Microbiology.
https://grist.org/science/arctic-permafrost-microbes-climate-change/
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-024-01691-0The New Climate Denial Is Based on These Six Terms
It’s absurd, at this point, to claim that climate change isn’t real ... so now [the] titans of finance and tech, as well as coal, oil, and gas executives themselves, have started spreading a new, more subtle form of climate denial ... spun out of six key terms that dominate the language of climate politics: alarmist, cost, growth, “India and China,” innovation, and resilience. Together these terms weave a narrative that goes something like this: “Yes, climate change is real, but calling it an existential threat is just alarmist. And, anyway, phasing out coal, oil, and gas would cost us too much. Human flourishing relies on the economic growth enabled by fossil fuels, so we need to keep using them and deal with climate change by fostering technological innovation and increasing our resilience. Besides, America should not act unilaterally on the climate crisis while emissions are rising in India and China.” This narrative is designed to encourage the incorrect and dangerous belief that the world does not need essentially to stop using fossil fuels—either because climate change won’t be that destructive or, in some versions of the story, because the world can keep using coal, oil, and gas and still halt global heating anyway.
https://newrepublic.com/article/182144/climate-denial-language-oil25% of U.S. Yards Have Unsafe Levels of Lead
A new study reveals that approximately one in four U.S. households have soil that contains lead levels exceeding the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s updated screening threshold of 200 parts per million (ppm), a reduction from the previous limit of 400 ppm. Additionally, for households facing exposure from multiple sources, the EPA has further reduced the guideline to 100 ppm; the study found that nearly 40% of households surpass this stricter level. “I was shocked at how many households were above the new 200 ppm guideline,” said Gabriel Filippelli, a biochemist at Indiana University who led the new study. “I assumed it was going to be a more modest number. And results for the 100 ppm guideline are even worse.” Remediating the roughly 29 million affected households using traditional “dig and dump” soil removal methods could cost upward of $1 trillion, the study calculated.
https://scitechdaily.com/a-trillion-dollar-problem-shocking-new-study-reveals-that-25-of-u-s-yards-have-unsafe-levels-of-lead/
reporting on a study at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2024GH001045The Deadly Mining Complex Powering the EV Revolution
Controlled by Chinese metals giant Tsingshan Holding Group Co., IMIP is the product of more than $30 billion in investment. Sprawling across what was once a plain of farmers’ fields and fishing hamlets on Sulawesi’s eastern shore, a short distance from nickel-mining concessions that dot the surrounding hillsides, it boasts its own seaport and airport, along with a resort-style hotel for visiting executives. [But] that success has a dark side. December’s fire was the worst in a long series of fatal accidents at IMIP and other Indonesian nickel sites. Workers have been buried under slag, crushed by heavy equipment and killed in falls. In surrounding communities, residents complain of respiratory ailments that they blame on pollution from smelters and the coal-fired power plants that sustain them. And environmentalists accuse the nickel industry of flouting regulations intended to protect ecologically sensitive islands such as Sulawesi—while expanding production of a material critical to the EVs that Western governments promote on environmental grounds.
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2024-indonesia-sulawesi-nickel-fire/The Climate Is the Economy
When all the economic indicators that take highest priority in Americans’ heads are in such volatile motion thanks to climate change, it may be time to reconsider how traditional economics work and how we perceive their effects. It’s no longer a time when extreme weather was rarer and more predictable ... you can’t keep ignoring the clear links between our current weather hellscape, climate change, and our everyday goods ... we’re no longer in a world where climate change affects the economy, or where voters prioritizing economic or inflationary concerns are responding to something distinct from climate change—we’re in a world where climate change is the economy.
https://slate.com/business/2024/06/floods-storms-inflation-florida-texas-home-insurance-climate-change-economy.htmlPuerto Rico issues an island-wide heat advisory for the first time as power outages persist
All 78 of the U.S. territory’s municipalities were placed under a heat advisory or warning, as well as the U.S. Virgin Islands. This is the first time forecasters have extended a heat advisory beyond Puerto Rico’s coastal areas since the alert system was put in place six years ago. Heat indexes were expected to reach up to 114 degrees Fahrenheit (about 46 degrees Celsius) along most of Puerto Rico’s coastal areas on Tuesday and through Wednesday morning as a dense cloud of Saharan dust from Africa blankets the island.
https://apnews.com/article/puerto-rico-heat-advisory-46a70c2341d74f9ccdf03a5d83e3dc91New tipping point discovered beneath the Antarctic ice sheet
Warm water that seeps underneath can melt ice in way not yet included in models
A new and worrying way that large ice sheets can melt has been characterised by scientists for the first time. The research focuses on how relatively warm seawater can lap at the underside of ground-based ice, which can accelerate the movement of the ice into the ocean. This process is currently not included in models that predict sea level rise, so the new results could offer a more accurate picture of how the world will change with global warming and how much coastal areas will need to adapt ... Carried out by scientists at the British Antarctic Survey (BAS), the findings are published in the journal Nature Geoscience. “We have identified the possibility of a new tipping-point in Antarctic ice sheet melting,” says Alex Bradley, an ice dynamics researcher at BAS and lead author of the new paper. “This means our projections of sea level rise might be significant underestimates.”
https://www.bas.ac.uk/media-post/new-tipping-point-discovered-beneath-the-antarctic-ice-sheet/
see also https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/25/climate/antarctic-ice-sheet-tipping-point-sea-level-rise-climate-intl/index.html
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-024-01465-7Coral bleachings devastate Bali reefs as sea temperatures rise
Ninety percent of the corals Sugiarto had nurtured on the reefs near his village in Bondalem, in northern shore of Bali, lost their colour last December. "It was all white. We were shocked" ... In April, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said more than 54% of the reef areas in the world's oceans are experiencing bleaching-level heat stress, the fourth global bleaching event in the last three decades. Indonesia has roughly 5.1 million hectares of coral reefs and accounts for 18% of the world's total ... While Indonesia's corals are more resilient and tend to recover faster, Marthen said it will not be enough to withstand the rising ocean temperature.
https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/coral-bleachings-devastate-bali-reefs-sea-temperatures-rise-2024-07-05/‘Most of it was dead’: scientists discover one of Great Barrier Reef’s worst coral bleaching events
At least 97% of corals on a reef in the Great Barrier Reef’s north died during one of the worst coral bleaching events the world’s biggest reef system has ever seen, according to new analysis [to] quantify the extent of coral death over a reef affected by this summer’s mass bleaching – the fifth in eight years – that saw heat stress hit record levels across some parts of the world heritage-listed reef ... “At least 97% of the corals had died over those three months. We were there to do our sea cucumber monitoring work, but there was silence amongst us nine researchers. We came out of the water and didn’t know what to say. It’s an iconic reef and most of it was dead.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jun/26/most-of-it-was-dead-scientists-discovers-one-of-great-barrier-reefs-worst-coral-bleaching-events
reporting on a study at https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1619Rising sea levels will disrupt millions of Americans’ lives by 2050, study finds
Critical infrastructure assets that sustain coastal communities will be at risk of monthly flooding by 2050, according to the new research by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS). The vast majority of the assets face the risk of flood disruption every other week, which could make some coastal neighborhoods unlivable within two to three decades ... The number of critical infrastructure assets at risk of disruptive flooding is expected to nearly double compared to 2020, even when assuming a medium rate of climate-driven sea level rise (rather than the worst case scenario) ... UCS researchers identified the critical infrastructure along the entire contiguous US, as well as Guam, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, which face risk of routine flooding, using data including National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tide gauges and three sea level rise scenarios developed by a US Interagency Task Force.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jun/25/rising-sea-levels-flooding‘Whack-a-mole situation’: Algerian officials wrestle with water shortage anger
State not acting fast enough to build desalination stations to deal with dwindling rainfall and resulting drought
Rationing had been introduced to deal with a drought in parts of Algeria and neighbouring Morocco where the amount of rainfall that had historically replenished critical reservoirs was much reduced. Taps had been running dry for months, forcing people in the region – a semi-arid, high-desert plateau increasingly plagued by extreme heat – to queue to access water ... As peak summer season approaches in Algeria, total water reserves in its 81 dams are at only a third of capacity. Algeria, the largest country in Africa, is dominated by the Sahara, which covers three-quarters of its territory.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/27/algerian-officials-wrestle-water-shortage-angerPlastics companies blocked mitigation efforts and may have broken US laws – study
The research from the Center for International Environmental Law (CIEL) details the widespread burdens that plastic pollution places on US cities and states, and argues that plastic producers may be breaking public-nuisance, product-liability and consumer-protection laws ... Drawing on newly revealed internal documents and previous investigations, the authors write that producers knew of these risks and produced and marketed plastics anyway ... plastics producers knew in the 1950s that their products don’t break down and in 1969, documents show, industry interests discussed plastics accumulating in the environment but kept marketing them. As the public grew concerned about plastic pollution, the industry responded with “sophisticated marketing campaigns” to shift blame from producers to consumers ... A February report from the Center for Climate Integrity (CCI) found that companies knew for decades that plastic recycling is not feasible, but promoted it anyway. Both reports add to a “growing body of evidence” showing the plastics crisis was “created and perpetuated by a decades-long campaign of deception”, said Alyssa Johl, CCI vice-president.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jun/26/plastics-companies-blocking-mitigation-efforts
reporting on a study at https://www.ciel.org/reports/make-plastic-polluters-pay/Microplastics are inside us all. What does that mean for our health?
Microplastics are everywhere. Minuscule plastic particles that come from degraded plastic products are found throughout the environment [and] researchers are finding them in almost every part of the human body, including in breast milk, the placenta, testicles, hearts, livers, and kidneys ... studies have drawn associations between microplastics and poor health outcomes, including cardiovascular disease and low male fertility. And chemicals often found in plastics are known to cause a variety of health problems, including cancers, metabolic disorders, attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder, and fertility issues ... production of plastics worldwide has doubled in the last two decades [and] can exist for decades, if not longer, without completely disintegrating ... the harm from microplastics in the body could be compounded by what are known as endocrine disruptor chemicals that are found in many plastics [and can] imitate hormones and disrupt the body’s natural endocrine system, which is responsible for making the hormones that govern processes such as growth and development, metabolism, appetite, mood, and certain aspects of reproduction ... Sathyanarayana has focused her research on studying the impact of exposure to endocrine disrupting chemicals on reproduction and has found that they can have a profound impact. Fetal exposure to endocrine disrupting chemicals has been associated with abnormal development of reproductive organs in male babies, with increased risk of metabolic disorders in childhood, and may be associated with the child developing attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Some of these chemicals have also been linked to lower sperm quality in men. [But] “the reality is we can’t avoid plastics,” she says. “No one can.”
https://www.aamc.org/news/microplastics-are-inside-us-all-what-does-mean-our-health
reporting on a study at https://www.mdpi.com/1422-0067/24/15/12308What it's like living through a 121 degree day
“This is what Indian vulnerability looks like,” says Aditya Valiathan Pillai, who studies policy responses to extreme heat at the New Delhi-based thinktank Sustainable Futures Collaborative. “You have 75% of India's working population, well over 350 million people who are directly heat exposed because of their jobs,” he says, citing World Bank data. Pillai says it’s not just outdoor workers. It includes people who live in slums -- where it’s often hotter than other parts of the city ... India isn’t ready for climate change-induced heatwaves that are pummeling this region, Pillai says. The infrastructure isn’t in place, including data gathering, even as these heatwaves are likely to occur more often, last longer and be more extreme. “What we're seeing today is nowhere close to how bad it's going to get in the next ten, 15 years,” says Pillai. In fact, some areas of India may become the first places on earth to be exposed to heatwaves so extreme that humans will not be able to survive them.
https://www.npr.org/sections/goats-and-soda/2024/06/17/g-s1-4778/extreme-heat-india-new-delhiWe’ve been accidentally cooling the planet — and it’s about to stop
Air pollution, which has killed tens of millions, has also curbed some of the worst effects of a warming planet. Tiny particles from the combustion of coal, oil and gas can reflect sunlight and spur the formation of clouds, shading the planet from the sun’s rays. Since the 1980s, [this aerosol masking has] offset between 40 and 80 percent of the warming caused by greenhouse gases. And now, as society cleans up pollution, that cooling effect is waning [and] the result is even warmer temperatures ... In one new paper, scientists at the University of Maryland argued that the decrease in aerosols could double the rate of warming in the 2020s, compared to the rate since 1980 [and] if aerosols have been masking cooling much more than expected the world could be poised to blow past its climate targets without realizing it.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/06/25/climate-aerosols-shipping-global-cooling/
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01442-3Brighten Clouds to Cool the Planet? It Could Backfire, Study Finds
University of California, San Diego, scientists recently modeled the impact of cloud brightening if deployed on a massive scale, with ships scattering salt into the air across huge swaths of the north Pacific every spring, summer, and fall for 30 years. They found that brightening would cut the risk of dangerous summer heat in North America. Though, their modeling showed it would also curtail rainfall in both Alaska and the Sahel region of Africa. Looking ahead, researchers examined the effect of brightening in 2050, in a world that had warmed by 2 degrees C. In that scenario, brightening would no longer curb the risk of summer heat in the western U.S. It would, however, intensify heat over most of Europe. The findings were published in Nature Climate Change.
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/cloud-brightening-geoengineering-heat-waves
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02046-7.epdfRecord-breaking fires consume Brazil’s Pantanal wetland
The early and intense wildfire season is threatening to exceed the worst blazes on record
Brazil’s Pantanal, the largest tropical wetland on earth, is ablaze, with fires in June breaking historical records for that month. Brazil’s National Institute of Space Research (INPE) has detected 733 fires in the Pantanal biome so far this month, with the previous record for fires in Pantanal for June being 435 registered in 2005. The state of Mato Grosso do Sul, which encompasses 60% of the Brazilian Pantanal, is under a “danger” warning ... Wetlands like the Pantanal are Earth’s most effective carbon sinks – ecosystems that absorb and store more carbon than they release, keeping it away from the atmosphere. At roughly 200,000 square kilometers, the Pantanal comprises about 3% of the globe’s wetlands and plays a key role in the carbon cycle. When these carbon-rich ecosystems burn, vast amounts of heat-trapping gases are released back into the atmosphere, contributing to the greenhouse effect. The wetland is facing a “hydrological crisis scenario” due to an intense drought. The lack of rain began in 2023.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/record-breaking-fires-consume-brazils-pantanal-wetland/1660055Deadly heat in Mexico and US made 35 times more likely by global heating
Such extreme heat spells are four times more likely today than they were at the turn of the millennium, when the planet was 0.5C cooler, the World Weather Attribution (WWA) analysis found ... “heatwaves are getting deadlier … we’ve known about the dangers of climate change at least since the 1970s [but] the world continues to burn huge amounts of oil, gas and coal,” said Friederike Otto, co-author of the study and senior lecturer in climate science at Grantham Institute, at Imperial College London ... The analysis found that the climate crisis made the excessive heat spell about 1.4C hotter during the day – and 35 times more likely than in pre-industrial times. The effect on night temperatures is even stronger, with the analysis finding temperatures about 1.6C hotter – a 200-fold increase due to global heating. Hot nights are particularly dangerous for human health, as the impact of heat is cumulative and the body only begins to rest and recover when temperatures drop below 80F (27C).
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jun/20/mexico-central-america-us-heatwave
reporting on a study at https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/extreme-heat-killing-more-than-100-people-in-mexico-hotter-and-much-more-likely-due-to-climate-change/Global biodiversity study uncovers missing patterns in ecosystem stability
In a paper published today in Nature Ecology & Evolution, researchers from the University of Melbourne and The University of Western Australia report that 74 per cent of global studies on ecosystem stability were focused on the effects of biodiversity loss within [only] a single group of species ... “If we’re only trying to understand stability in a single group of species within a food chain, we are not fully understanding what’s going on,” Mr Srednick said. “Overlooking the wider interactions fails to consider the full implications of biodiversity loss - these implications could result in disruptions to ecosystem productivity and even their collapse.”
https://science.unimelb.edu.au/about/news/global-biodiversity-study-uncovers-missing-patterns-in-ecosystem-stability
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-024-02419-3Changes in Earth’s Energy Imbalance Since 2000
Earth’s energy imbalance has doubled during the first twenty years of this centuryEarth’s energy imbalance doubled from 0.5 ± 0.2 Wm−2 during the first 10 years of this century to 1.0 ± 0.2 Wm−2 during the past decade. The increase is the result of a 0.9 ± 0.3 Wm−2 increase absorbed solar radiation (ASR) that is partially offset by a 0.4 ± 0.25 Wm−2 increase in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) ... trends in net top-of-atmosphere flux (NET) remain within 0.1 Wm−2 per decade of one another, implying a steady acceleration of climate warming. Northern and southern hemisphere trends in NET are consistent to 0.06 ± 0.31 Wm−2 per decade ... large decreases in stratocumulus and middle clouds over the sub-tropics and decreases in low and middle clouds at mid-latitudes are the primary reasons for increasing ASR trends in the northern hemisphere (NH). These changes are especially large over the eastern and northern Pacific Ocean.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10712-024-09838-8World will miss target of tripling renewable electricity generation by 2030 – IEA
Analysis of policies of nearly 150 countries shows shortfall
The world is off track to meet the goal of tripling renewable electricity generation by 2030, a target viewed as vital to enable a swift global transition away from fossil fuels ... Governments should include targets and policies on renewables in their national action plans for the climate (called nationally determined contributions, or NDCs), which are a requirement under the Paris agreement, the IEA found. Many currently fail to do so, even though vast increases in renewable power are essential to meeting the treaty’s aspiration of limiting temperature rises to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jun/04/world-will-miss-target-of-tripling-renewable-electricity-generation-by-2030-ieaLuxury homes on these beaches are losing value fast, as effects of climate change hit hard
Some of the nation’s priciest coastal real estate is in an increasingly precarious position due to climate change. A Nantucket home listed last summer for just over $2 million sold early this year for just $600,000 ... A barely remarkable Nor’easter wiped away an astounding 70 feet of the beach it sits on, thanks to sea level rise and unusually intense rainfall ... the effects of climate change are already hitting the market — and at a faster pace than most expected ... “those houses, if they weren’t at erosion risk, would have sold for, I don’t know, 10 or 12 million ... I saw houses selling and I thought that’s not worth that, it’s falling in the ocean”... Looking at ZIP codes just on the East and Gulf coasts of the United States, 33 have a median home value of at least $1 million. In just these areas a combined 77,005 properties are at significant flood risk, according to models by First Street, a climate risk data and analytics firm. That is roughly $100 billion in potential losses ... On another Nantucket beach, the rising ocean has pushed sand so far that it’s burying homes. Sand covered two homes up to the windows and uncovered the septic system and utility wires. Once those are exposed, the town has to condemn the property ... John Conforti lives just next to those two homes. Sand has risen so far it now covers his entire front yard ... He has owned his home for 42 years and already moved it back from the beach once. “We all say one more year,” said Conforti. “It’s unbelievable what’s happened.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/14/luxury-homes-on-these-beaches-are-losing-value-fast-as-effects-of-climate-change-hit-hard.htmlIt’s so hot in India, an insurer is helping thousands of women buy food
Fifty thousand women in 22 districts across the states of Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Gujarat received $5 payments as temperatures topped 40 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) last month in several parts of the country. “This is the first time that insurance payouts and a direct cash assistance program have been combined to supplement the income of women when it’s dangerously hot,” said Kathy Baughman McLeod, CEO of Climate Resilience for All, a not-for-profit organization that designed the insurance in partnership with India’s Self-Employed Women’s Association (SEWA), a trade union with nearly three million members.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/its-so-hot-in-india-an-insurer-is-helping-thousands-of-women-buy-food/1658835Climate records keep getting shattered. Here is what you need to know
The European Union’s climate-watching agency Copernicus declared last month that it was the hottest May on record, marking the 12th straight monthly record high. Separately, the World Meteorological Organization estimated that there's almost a one-in-two chance that average global temperatures from 2024 to 2028 will surpass the hoped-for warming limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial times ... climate scientists say warming trends are following what they have studied and predicted based on the buildup of carbon dioxide from rising fossil fuel use. In 2023, the levels of those heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere reached historic highs ... U.N. studies show massive changes to Earth’s ecosystem are more likely to begin between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius of warming.
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2024-06-05/climate-records-keep-shattering-how-worried-should-we-beZombie fires in the Arctic smoulder underground and refuse to die
Atmospheric warming above ground can cause peat soils to suddenly heat up to smouldering,without any spark or other ignition These zombie fires may be a case of climate change-driven spontaneous combustion ... our model captures how certain microbes generate heat while breaking down soil and releasing its carbon into the atmosphere ... those microbes can generate so much heat that underground peat can smoulder at around 80°C over the winter, ready to ignite in spring. And this can happen without there ever having been a fire in that spot above ground, and without the weather above ground reaching the sorts of temperatures that would normally be needed for soil to burn. We call this new state the hot metastable state of peat soils. In this context, “metastable” means a long burn – the hot state lasts for a long but finite time, up to ten years, until the peat burns out. Our other key finding is that a sudden transition from the regular cold state to the hot metastable state can be triggered by realistic climate patterns alone, including summer heat waves and global warming scenarios.
https://theconversation.com/zombie-fires-in-the-arctic-smoulder-underground-and-refuse-to-die-whats-causing-them-221945
reporting on a study at https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rspa.2022.0647Global Warming Is Changing Plants’ Pollination Patterns – and It Could Have Disastrous Consequences for Food Stability
Climate change has led to reduced pollen production in plants and less pollen diversity, potentially threatening food production. The study specifically explores how changes in flowering times and extreme weather events affect the availability of critical food sources for insect pollinators. “By analyzing 21 years of historical data, a very long period that provides clear views, the research offers detailed perspectives on the consequences of habitat loss, fragmented landscapes, and changes in plant assemblages on pollination services ... Without effective pollination, many crops vital to the global food supply could fail,” Balmaki warned.
https://scitechdaily.com/global-warming-is-changing-plants-pollination-patterns-and-it-could-have-disastrous-consequences-for-food-stability/
reporting on a study at https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00442-024-05533-yThe end of the great northern forests?
The tiny tree-killing beetle wreaking havoc on our ancient giants
In Canada, just one species, the mountain pine beetle, affected 200,000 sq km – an area almost the size of Uganda – between 2000 and 2020, with other species causing outbreaks elsewhere across the country. In Europe, forest disturbances from bark beetles have soared, particularly affecting Norwegian spruce monocultures. In the Czech Republic, the centre of the most recent outbreak on the continent, between up to 5.4% of all spruces were damaged each year between 2017 and 2019, transforming their land sector from a carbon sink to a source, with disastrous consequences for the forestry industry. In California, bark beetle species killed 163m trees between 2010 and 2019, according to the US Forest Service. Outbreaks in the vast taiga of Siberia have been recorded, but their impact is largely unknown. Bark beetles are a highly diverse group of insects, and a natural part of ecosystems, with hundreds of species across the planet. But a subset of this insect family have now cleared swathes of forest in Canada, Siberia, Scandinavia, the US, Mongolia, China and Japan ... the unpredictability of temperatures in a warming world has made bark beetle behaviour more unpredictable, sometimes boosted by the heat, weakened trees and an abundance of monoculture plantations ... Outbreaks are spreading north to parts of the world that had previously been too cold for the insects. Usually, their larvae are killed in freezing conditions, but in some places rising temperatures mean that no longer happens.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jun/05/collapse-northern-boreal-forests-drought-fire-beetles-climate-crisis-ancient-trees-carbon-sinkWhat caused Earth's biggest mass extinction?
The end-Permian "Great Dying" was caused by global warming that left ocean animals unable to breathe As temperatures rose and the metabolism of marine animals sped up, the warmer waters could not hold enough oxygen for them to survive. The study is published in the Dec. 7 issue of Science ... Before ongoing volcanic eruptions in Siberia created a greenhouse-gas planet, oceans had temperatures and oxygen levels similar to today's. The researchers then raised greenhouse gases in the model to the level required to make tropical ocean temperatures at the surface some 10 degrees Celsius higher, matching conditions at that time. The model reproduces the resulting dramatic changes in the oceans. Oceans lost about 80 percent of their oxygen ... “The conventional wisdom in the paleontological community has been that the Permian extinction was especially severe in tropical waters.” Yet the model shows the hardest hit were organisms most sensitive to oxygen found far from the tropics ... high-latitude species, especially those with high oxygen demands, were nearly completely wiped out ... "The signature of that kill mechanism, climate warming and oxygen loss, is this geographic pattern that's predicted by the model and then discovered in the fossils," Penn said ... "At the end of the day, it turned out that the size of the dead zones really doesn't seem to be the key thing for the extinction ... most organisms can be excluded from seawater at oxygen levels that aren't anywhere close to anoxic." Warming leading to insufficient oxygen explains more than half of the marine diversity losses. The authors say that other changes, such as acidification or shifts in the productivity of photosynthetic organisms, likely acted as additional causes.
https://sustainability.stanford.edu/news/what-caused-earths-biggest-mass-extinctionOceans face ‘triple threat’ of extreme heat, oxygen loss and acidification
The study’s lead author warned that the world’s oceans were already being pushed into an extreme new state because of the climate crisis. “The impacts of this have already been seen and felt,” said Joel Wong, a researcher at ETH Zurich, who cited the well-known example of the heat “blob” that has caused the die-off of marine life in the Pacific Ocean. “Intense extreme events like these are likely to happen again in the future and will disrupt marine ecosystems and fisheries around the world,” he added. The research, published in AGU Advances, analyzed occurrences of extreme heat, deoxygenation and acidification ... Climate scientists have been alarmed by the relentless onward rise of heat in the ocean, which has hit extraordinary heights in recent months. “The heat has been literally off the charts, it’s been astonishing to see,” said Andrea Dutton, a geologist and climate scientist at the University of Wisconsin–Madison ... the oceans are also paying another heavy price for soaking up huge volumes of heat and carbon dioxide ... The extra CO2 is making seawater more acidic, dissolving the shells of marine creatures, as well as starving the ocean of oxygen. “This means that marine life is being squeezed out of places it is able to survive,” said Dutton. “This paper makes clear that this is happening now.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jun/04/extreme-heat-oceans-acidification
reporting on a study at https://doi.org/10.1029/2023AV001059It’s hurricane season. Good luck getting affordable homeowners’ insurance
As insurance companies struggle to stay afloat, battered by elevated inflation and the growing frequency of catastrophic storms made worse by climate change, it’s become even tougher for homeowners to find affordable insurance options ... there has been an uptick in catastrophic hurricanes, wildfires and convective storms – like severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, Nyce said. “These storms don’t only affect one property at a time. They affect a large number of properties,” he said. “That changes the dynamic for an insurance company” ... Only two of the 20 largest US homeowners’ insurance companies were profitable last year ... While property insurance is not mandated by law, most lenders require it for mortgage holders. That can leave many homeowners carrying mortgages scrambling if they are unexpectedly dropped from their insurance. Most states have something called an “insurer of last resort” [but] they can be costly or provide less coverage. Still, these government-backed insurance companies have ballooned in popularity as some homeowners run out of options.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/01/economy/homeowners-insurance-cost-hurricane-weather/index.htmlAbrupt reduction in shipping emission as an inadvertent geoengineering termination shock produces substantial radiative warming
The warming effect of anthropogenic greenhouse gases has been partially balanced by the cooling effect of anthropogenic aerosols. In 2020, fuel regulations abruptly reduced the emission of sulfur dioxide from international shipping by about 80% and created an inadvertent geoengineering termination shock with global impact. Here we estimate the regulation leads to a radiative forcing of Wm−2 averaged over the global ocean. The amount of radiative forcing could lead to a doubling (or more) of the warming rate in the 2020 s compared with the rate since 1980 with strong spatiotemporal heterogeneity. The warming effect is consistent with the recent observed strong warming in 2023 and expected to make the 2020 s anomalously warm.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01442-3
see also https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/30/termination-shock-cut-in-ship-pollution-sparked-global-heating-spurtCorporations invested in carbon offsets that were ‘likely junk’, analysis says
Delta, Gucci, Volkswagen, ExxonMobil, Disney, easyJet and Nestlé are among the major corporations to have purchased millions of carbon credits from climate friendly projects that are “likely junk” or worthless when it comes to offsetting their greenhouse gas emissions ... for 33 of the top 50 corporate buyers, more than a third of their entire offsets portfolio is “likely junk” – suggesting at least some claims about carbon neutrality and emission reductions have been exaggerated according to the analysis. The fundamental failings leading to a “likely junk” ranking include whether emissions cuts would have happened anyway, as is often the case with large hydroelectric dams, or if the emissions were just shifted elsewhere, a common issue in forestry offset projects ... The fossil fuel industry is by far the largest investor in the world’s most popular 50 CO2 offsetting schemes. At least 43% of the 81m CO2 credits purchased by the oil and gas majors are for projects that have at least one fundamental flaw and are “probably junk”, according to the analysis. The transport industry, which accounts for about a fifth of all global planet-warming emissions, has also relied heavily on carbon offsetting projects to meet climate goals. Just over 42% of the total credits (55m) purchased by airlines and 38% purchased by automakers (21m) for the top 50 projects are likely worthless at reducing emissions, the analysis found ... “Overall, carbon offsets are, according to most expert analyses, neither credible nor scalable to the urgency and scale of the carbon dioxide problem,” said Richard Heede, co-director of the Climate Accountability Institute, a nonprofit research and education group.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/30/corporate-carbon-offsets-credits
see also https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/31/market-value-of-carbon-offsets-drops-61-aoeThe climate refugee crisis is here
Catastrophic flooding in southern Brazil has forced hundreds of thousands of people from their homes.
For years, scientists have warned that climate change would displace millions of people, reordering the world’s human presence as people searched for safety. The World Bank has estimated that more than 216 million people could be driven from their homes by sea level rise, flooding, desertification and other effects of warming temperatures. The Institute for Economics and Peace said the figure could reach 1.2 billion people. A future characterized by “climate refugees,” the European Parliament reported, was coming. That future now appears to have arrived. Floods in Pakistan in 2022 displaced an estimated 8 million people. Floods in Ethiopia in 2023 and Kenya this year forced hundreds of thousands more from their homes. And now, Brazil. “Brazil is not going to be a one-off,” said Andrew Harper, a senior official at the U.N. High Commission for Refugees. “What we are seeing is the start of something that will become more frequent and more extreme and lead to more people left vulnerable, with no choice but to move to a safer location.” The disaster, Brazilians say, has the makings of a historic pivot point.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/05/28/brazil-floods-climate-refugeesThe Lancet: Dramatic declines in global fertility rates set to transform global population patterns by 2100
By 2050, 76% of countries will not have high enough fertility rates to sustain population size; this will increase to 97% of by 2100The world is approaching a low-fertility future [where] more than 97% of countries and territories will have fertility rates below what is necessary to sustain population size ... countries need to have a total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.1 children per person who could give birth, to sustain long-term generational replacement of the population ... the researchers estimate that by 2050, 155 of 204 (76%) countries and territories will be below the replacement level of fertility. The number of countries and territories below replacement level is predicted to further increase to 198 of 204 (97%) by 2100 ... The new study also predicts huge shifts in the global pattern of livebirths from higher- to lower-income countries. In 2021, 29% of the world’s babies were born in sub-Saharan Africa; by 2100, this is projected to rise to over half (54%) of all babies ... The global TFR has more than halved over the past 70 years, from around five children for each female in 1950 to 2.2 children in 2021—with over half of all countries and territories (110 of 204) below the population replacement level of 2.1 births per female as of 2021. Over the coming decades, global fertility is predicted to decline even further, reaching a TFR of around 1.8 in 2050, and 1.6 in 2100—well below the replacement level. The TFR in Western Europe is predicted to be 1.44 in 2050, dropping to 1.37 in 2100.
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1038195
reporting on a study at https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2824%2900550-6Co-exposure to 55 endocrine-disrupting chemicals linking diminished sperm quality
Isolated effects of single endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) on male reproductive health have been studied extensively, but their mixture effect remains unelucidated ... we [simultaneously measured] 55 EDCs in the urine for exposure burden. Regression analyses were restricted to highly detected EDCs and those with consistently elevated risk were further [studied, which] demonstrated that co-exposure to top-ranked EDCs was related to reduced sperm total and progressive motility ... Co-exposure to a range of EDCs is mainly associated with deteriorated sperm quality, but to a lesser extent on sperm quantity.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412024001570Mexico's 'heat dome' has already killed dozens of people as hotter days loom
Mexico has been reeling from a high-pressure weather phenomenon known as a "heat dome," which has trapped hot air over much of the country, creating record-breaking temperatures that have surpassed 45 degrees Celsius (113 degrees Fahrenheit) in some places. The 10-day period overlapped with the second and third heat waves out of five forecast for March to July by the country's top weather agencies. The third heat wave is ongoing ... Sweltering heat has exacerbated a nationwide drought and strained Mexico's power grid, with monkeys dropping dead from trees due to suspected dehydration. Imminent relief is not yet on the horizon, according to researchers at the National Autonomous University of Mexico. Mexico could experience its hottest temperatures on record in the next 10-15 days.
https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/mexicos-heat-dome-has-already-killed-dozens-people-hotter-days-loom-2024-05-24/Report Details ‘Catastrophic Decline’ of Migratory Fish
Populations of salmon, trout, eel, sturgeon, and other migrating freshwater fish have shrunk by 81 percent on average since 1970, a new report finds ... fish have been in decline for 30 years, and that their collapse is most severe in Latin America and in Europe. Humans are driving the losses by overfishing, polluting waterways, damming rivers, converting wetlands to farmland, and by fueling warming.
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/migrating-fish-decline
reporting on a study at https://worldfishmigrationfoundation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/LPI_migratory-freshwater-fishes-2024_Technical-report.pdfLife in the Dirt Is Hard. And Climate Change Isn’t Helping.
Heat and drought are taking a toll on the tiny soil creatures that help to lock away planet-warming carbon Thousands of species of mites and springtails, living in soil all around the world, provide a crucial service by munching organic matter like fallen leaves and wood, transferring its planet-warming carbon into the ground and releasing nutrients that help new plants grow. But now, a new analysis that combined data from 38 different studies on the organisms suggests that drought in some parts of the world, often supercharged by climate change, are killing them off at alarming rates ... some of the soft-bodied creatures are very sensitive to moisture in their environment. When the soil dries up during times of aridity they, too, can dry up, shrivel and die. And, the more severe the dry spell, the more severe the reduction in their abundance.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/24/climate/mites-springtails-climate-change.html
reporting on a study at https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.17305Something very strange is happening to tornadoes across the US
[I]n the first months of 2024, there has been a strange and devastating uptick in twister occurrences. April witnessed more than 100 tornadoes in the US in just one week, and, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information, a total of 384 were reported throughout the month. That is more than double the year-on-year average and the second-highest on record [and] have also seen tornadoes wreaking havoc in unexpected places. Tornadoes in Nebraska and Iowa are much further north and east in the country than is typically expected for April, when tornadoes are usually concentrated in the south.
https://www.sciencefocus.com/planet-earth/something-strange-happening-to-tornadoesOcean heat and La Nina combo likely mean more Atlantic hurricanes this summer
https://apnews.com/article/hurricanes-busy-season-warm-water-la-nina-0fe7c4cb0367e8b56ac63ff663839df0[Thwaites] ‘doomsday’ glacier is more vulnerable than scientists once thought
Could raise global sea levels by up to two feet if it melts; far more exposed to warm ocean water than previously believed.
Thwaites Glacier, the world’s widest, bobs up and down on daily tides. As it lifts up, warm seawater is shooting farther under the ice than scientists thought — up to 6 kilometers, or 3.7 miles, according to satellite data ... The degradation of Thwaites, popularly known as the “doomsday glacier,” means the warm ocean could eat further into the West Antarctic ice sheet and bring with it the potential for massive sea level rise. “The water is able to penetrate beneath the ice over much longer distances than we thought,” said Eric Rignot, a scientist with the University of California at Irvine and NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, who led the research. “It’s kind of sending a shock wave down our spine to see that water moving kilometers” ... the ability of water to squeeze in this way, even running up a slope that the ice has been hooked onto, is a new factor increasing the glacier’s instability.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/05/20/thwaites-glacier-melt-sea-level-rise/
see also https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/antarcticas-doomsday-glacier-is-melting-even-faster-than-scientists-thought/
reporting on a study at https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2404766121Pollution Paradox: How Cleaning Up Smog Drives Ocean Warming
A vast expanse of ocean stretching from Alaska to California periodically warms by up to 4 degrees Celsius
https://e360.yale.edu/features/aerosols-warming-climate-change
reporting on a study at https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2313797121
reporting on a study at https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37945564/Microplastics found in every human testicle in study
Sperm counts in men have been falling for decades, with chemical pollution such as pesticides implicated by many studies. Microplastics have also recently been discovered in human blood, placentas and breast milk, indicating widespread contamination of people’s bodies ... microplastics have polluted the entire planet, from the summit of Mount Everest to the deepest oceans. People are known to consume the tiny particles via food and water as well as breathing them in ... “At the beginning, I doubted whether microplastics could penetrate the reproductive system,” said Prof Xiaozhong Yu, at the University of New Mexico in the US. “When I first received the results for dogs I was surprised. I was even more surprised when I received the results for humans ... PVC can release a lot of chemicals that interfere with spermatogenesis and it contains chemicals that cause endocrine disruption.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/20/microplastics-human-testicles-study-sperm-counts
reporting on a study at https://academic.oup.com/toxsci/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/toxsci/kfae060/7673133Argentina's soy crushers face 'disaster' as bean shortage sharpens, chamber head says
Argentina's giant soybean processing plants are running out of soybeans after a historic drought cut the crop in half, the head of the country's grains export chamber told Reuters, and this will leave well over two-thirds of factory capacity idle. For years, the South American country was the world's top exporter of processed soy oil and meal. Its crown slipped this year after its crop was ravaged and as the indebted government has pushed exports of beans to bring in dollars. "We are in a disastrous year," said Gustavo Idigoras, president of the grain exporters and crushing chamber CIARA-CEC, adding he expected idle capacity at the country's crushing plants along the Parana river to shoot past the current 65%. "Idle capacity could grow significantly," he said, pointing out that the next soy harvest would not be until April and there would likely be just 3 million metric tons of soybeans left by the end of the month to last until then. "With those 3 million tons we have to survive until May 2024," he said. "We want to turn the page to see if next year we get a better climate and higher farm production."
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/argentinas-soy-crushers-face-disaster-bean-shortage-sharpens-chamber-head-says-2023-10-05/Brazil counts cost of worst-ever floods with little hope of waters receding soon
Death toll in southern state of Rio Grande do Sul increasing daily as authorities plan four ‘tent cities’ for 77,000 displaced people Three weeks after one of Brazil’s worst-ever floods hit its southernmost state, killing 155 people and forcing 540,000 from their homes, experts have warned that water levels will take at least another two weeks to drop. The death toll across Rio Grande do Sul is still increasing daily, and more than 77,000 displaced people remain in public shelters, prompting the state government to announce plans to build four temporary “tent cities” to accommodate them. On Friday, the state’s governor, Eduardo Leite, said the costs to rebuild will be “much higher” than the 19bn reais (£2.9bn) he initially estimated. Several cities are still underwater, including the state’s capital, Porto Alegre, where 46 of the 96 neighbourhoods were flooded. Even residents of non-flooded areas have had to endure days without electricity and potable water. Of the seven main rivers in the state, five are still above the maximum water level, and experts say there is little hope the waters will recede anytime soon. “These rains were typical of the climate crisis: very intense, with a large volume of water concentrated in a short period”, said Anderson Ruhoff, professor at the Institute of Hydraulic Research (IPH) of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul. In just three days, the state saw the amount of rain normally seen over four months.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/19/brazil-floods-tollLosses Pile Up in Top-Rated Bonds Backed by Commercial Real Estate Debt
Office Loans Fall Behind on Payments
[T]he fact the pain is reaching all the way up to top-ranked holders, overwhelming safeguards put in place to ensure their full repayment, is a testament to how deeply distressed pockets of the US commercial real estate market have become ... “Now that we’ve seen the first commercial mortgage backed securities get hit, other AAA bonds are bound to see losses,” said Lea Overby, a CMBS strategist at Barclays ... about $52 billion, or 31%, of all office loans in commercial mortgage bonds were in trouble in March, according to KBRA Analytics, up from 16% a year ago ... observers say CMBS investors should expect more losses on bonds originally rated AAA in the months to come.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-23/cmbs-buyers-suffer-first-loss-on-aaa-debt-since-financial-crisisInsurance: A Hidden Crisis In US Housing
In places most prone to wildfires and hurricanes, state “insurers of last resort” are absorbing trillions of dollars in risk ... But even as states have assumed more and more risk, they’ve largely dodged a fundamental question: How will they cover claims in the wake of a truly major catastrophe? There are limited options—levies on private insurers or state residents, or more state borrowing—and none of them are good. Most states haven’t thought this far ahead, or if they have, they’re not explicit about where the money will come from. Out of 36 residual insurance plans that offer coverage for natural catastrophes, 21 don’t explicitly detail how they’d pay deficits, according to new research from consulting group Milliman. States have turned these plans into “a magic hiding place to disappear risk that just gets too big for the private market,” said Nancy Watkins, a principal and consulting actuary based in Milliman’s San Francisco office ... California is one of those states that doesn’t explicitly spell out what it will do if claims force it into deficit. The state department of insurance says that current rates are adequate to cover losses, and that there are safeguards in place to make policyholders whole. But the Personal Insurance Federation of California, an industry trade group, disagrees. It points out that the state can’t know whether rates would cover losses because the plan hasn’t performed the kinds of stress tests designed to understand the consequences of another bad fire season ... The plan isn’t subject to the kinds of capital requirements designed to prevent private insurers from taking on too much risk, according to the statement. A spokesperson for the plan said that “information regarding [its] financial situation isn’t publicly disclosed.” It’s hard to overstate the role that insurance plays in the modern American economy. Banks won’t make mortgage loans for uninsurable properties; without those loans, the real estate market slows to a crawl, which in turn eats away household wealth and the tax revenue that state and local governments rely on. For insurers to play their part, they have to feel confident predicting how much damage they might have to cover. To do that, they build models of the future based on what’s happened in the past. They don’t have to be right all the time, just enough to win more than they lose. Climate change has made that much harder ... When market conditions become too hostile, private insurers limit their exposure in a different way: They stop writing new policies. When property owners see premiums skyrocketing or private insurers leaving, it’s one signal that the risks of disaster have grown beyond what the market will bear. Maybe it’s no longer safe to live—or at least, to invest significant wealth—in such places. Maybe it’s time to move. That’s not a popular message for homeowners or their elected representatives, a group that includes, in 11 states, the insurance commissioner. Given the central role that insurance plays in the real estate market and, therefore, state revenue and population growth, politicians are tremendously motivated to keep insurance prices low, muting that market signal ... In his campaign for governor the next year, then-Republican Charlie Crist promised to freeze premiums charged by Citizens Property Insurance Corp., the state’s insurer of last resort. When he took office in 2007, he scuttled a 75% planned increase. He set an important precedent. Florida, which has some of the riskiest assets in the US, has kept Citizens’ premiums at far less than the private market for storm insurance. Its policy count has almost tripled since 2018. If Citizens faces a shortfall, it will allow insurance companies to levy a fee on every policy in the state. That means anyone with property insurance would be on the hook ... If a catastrophic event triggers a massive assessment, it could force some insurers into bankruptcy, said Rex Frazier, head of PIFC. “Or would the state step in and say, ‘no, we’ll allow them to put a surcharge on all of their policyholders.’ Who knows? We don’t have the answer.” For companies that live and die by their ability to forecast and manage risk, that kind of uncertainty poses a real problem ... Damage from wildfires and hailstorms made Colorado one of the least profitable states for home insurers in the five years through 2021. As a result, premiums in the state jumped more than 50% between 2019 and October 2022. Even so, three-quarters of home insurers reduced their exposure to the state in the first 10 months of 2022 ... it may come back to taxpayers, said Colorado Insurance Commissioner Michael Conway. “If climate change is beginning to increase claims and payments, which ultimately it is, it’s fundamentally the consumer and society in general that bears the brunt of that,” he said.
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2024-home-insurance-real-estate-crisis/
see also https://grist.org/extreme-weather/home-insurance-midwest-climate-disasters/As Insurers Around the U.S. Bleed Cash From Climate Shocks, Homeowners Lose
The insurance turmoil caused by climate change — which had been concentrated in Florida, California and Louisiana — is fast becoming a contagion. In 2023, insurers lost money on homeowners coverage in 18 states, more than a third of the country ... up from 12 states five years ago, and eight states in 2013. The result is that insurance companies are raising premiums by as much as 50 percent or more, cutting back on coverage or leaving entire states altogether. Nationally, over the last decade, insurers paid out more in claims than they received in premiums, according to the ratings firm Moody’s, and those losses are increasing. The growing tumult is affecting people whose homes have never been damaged and who have dutifully paid their premiums, year after year. Cancellation notices have left them scrambling to find coverage to protect what is often their single biggest investment. As a last resort, many are ending up in high-risk insurance pools created by states that are backed by the public and offer less coverage than standard policies. By and large, state regulators lack strategies to restore stability to the market ... Without insurance, banks won’t issue a mortgage; without a mortgage, most people can’t buy a home. With fewer buyers, real estate values are likely to decline .... experts say the past decade is different because of climate change. As the planet warms and storms and fires grow more intense, the cost of disasters is increasing faster than insurers can afford. A financial model designed for a mix of good and bad years threatens to unravel as more years become bad years. “It’s becoming an untenable situation,” said Sridhar Manyem, senior director of industry research at AM Best, a company that rates the financial strength of insurers ... global warming has made weather unpredictable, leaving insurers unsure how to price policies. “Climate change is real,” said Bill Montgomery, chief executive of Celina Insurance Group, one of the companies that has left Iowa in the past year. “We can’t raise rates fast enough or high enough” ... Those who can’t get insurance on the private market are flooding into state-mandated insurance pools of last resort, whose losses are ultimately borne by the public ... Even the insurance companies are having trouble getting coverage. Reinsurance companies, global giants like Swiss Re, insure the insurers, sharing some of the risk of the policies they write. As disasters worsen, reinsurers have become more reluctant to underwrite insurance [making] insurance companies even more conservative about where to do business ... In 2023, for every dollar insurers earned from homeowners policies in Iowa, they paid out $1.44 in losses and other costs. It was the fourth straight year of losses for Iowa’s home insurance market. Reinsurers started to back away. “Insurance is based on optimism,” said Doug Ommen, Iowa’s insurance commissioner. “You can’t sustain a severe loss every year” ... Pekin [Insurance] says it has “paused” writing homeowners insurance in Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Wisconsin, citing the increased frequency and severity of storms. Secura is dropping customers in Illinois, Indiana and Michigan. The homeowners insurance market in each of those states has become unprofitable ... In Arkansas, insurers spent $1.66 last year for every dollar they earned in home insurance premiums. In Kentucky, which was rocked by tornadoes and record rainfall in 2023, they spent $1.67 for every dollar they earned. And in Tennessee, where storms were severe enough in December for a presidential disaster declaration, insurers spent $1.25 last year for every dollar they collected in premiums. The challenge facing the market “is probably unparalleled in recent decades,” said Kelley Erstine, president of the association that represents independent insurance agents in Arkansas. A struggling homeowners insurance market “used to be a coastal problem,” Mr. Erstine said. “It’s now ubiquitous. It’s found in every corner of our country” ... In the West, climate change has dried out wooded areas, making them increasingly susceptible to wildfires. In Arizona and Washington State, insurers’ annual losses for homeowners coverage have more than doubled over the past decade, before accounting for inflation. In Utah, losses more than tripled [and] most states lack a comprehensive plan to restore the market.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/13/climate/insurance-homes-climate-change-weather.html
very good NY Times Podcast version at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6B-obc1GlWIEconomic damage from climate change six times worse than thought – report
A 1C increase in global temperature leads to a 12% decline in world gross domestic product (GDP), the researchers found, a far higher estimate than that of previous analyses. The world has already warmed by more than 1C (1.8F) since pre-industrial times and many climate scientists predict a 3C (5.4F) rise will occur [which] will cause “precipitous declines in output, capital and consumption that exceed 50% by 2100” the paper states.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/17/economic-damage-climate-change-report‘Impossible’ heatwave struck Philippines in April, scientists find
Human-caused climate crisis brought soaring temperatures across Asia, from Gaza to Delhi to Manila
The record-breaking heatwave that scorched the Philippines in April would have been impossible without the climate crisis, scientists have found. Searing heat above 40C (104F) struck across Asia in April, causing deaths, water shortages, crop losses and widespread school closures. The extreme heat was made 45 times more likely in India ... latest study to assess the role of human-caused global heating in worsening extreme weather shows how severe the impacts are already ... Another “impossible” heatwave hit west Africa and the Sahel in late March, again causing deaths, and reaching 48.5C.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/14/impossible-heatwave-philippines-april-scientistsWorld’s top climate scientists expect global heating to blast past 1.5C target
Planet is headed for at least 2.5C of heating with disastrous results for humanity, poll of hundreds of scientists findsAlmost 80% of the respondents, all from the authoritative Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), foresee at least 2.5C of global heating above preindustrial levels, while almost half anticipate at least 3C (5.4F). Only 6% thought the internationally agreed 1.5C (2.7F) limit will be met ... “I think we are headed for major societal disruption within the next five years,” said Gretta Pecl, at the University of Tasmania. “[Authorities] will be overwhelmed by extreme event after extreme event, food production will be disrupted.” The Guardian approached every contactable lead author or review editor of IPCC reports since 2018. The results show that many of the most knowledgeable people on the planet expect climate havoc to unfold in the coming decades. The experts were clear on why the world is failing to tackle the climate crisis. A lack of political will was cited by almost three-quarters of the respondents.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/08/world-scientists-climate-failure-survey-global-temperaturePersistent Brazil floods raise specter of climate migration
With hundreds of thousands of families fleeing the floods, the disaster - which has killed at least 147 people, with 127 still missing - could touch off one of Brazil's biggest cases of climate migration in recent history. The record devastation in Rio Grande do Sul follows floods in the second half of last year, leading many of the 538,000 people now displaced from their homes to consider [migration]. For the third time in seven months, businessman Cassiano Baldasso had to remove wheelbarrows of mud from his home only to see the waters rise again. He says he has had enough. Mayor Mateus Trojan said many of Muçum's 5,000 residents will have to relocate. Governor Eduardo Leite has said initial calculations show Rio Grande do Sul will need at least 19 billion reais ($3.7 billion) to rebuild from the disaster.
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/persistent-brazil-floods-raise-specter-climate-migration-2024-05-13/Brazil flooding death toll rises to 90 as more than 155,000 people displaced
Floods hit food silos, disrupt routes to major grains port
Photographs of the Porto Alegre airport, one of Brazil’s busiest, showed its main terminal had been completely inundated ... “The state is facing a war-like situation,” Leite told reporters on Sunday as President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva flew to the region to oversee rescue efforts. One of the worst-affected cities is the state capital, Porto Alegre, which sits along the Guaíba river. “Porto Alegre has been devastated, leaving virtually the whole city without its supply of water, electricity and food,” the newspaper O Globo reported ... Four major highways that connect the capital with the rest of the state have been completely blocked. Across Rio Grande do Sul, an estimated 1.3 million people have been affected by the disaster caused by a week of intense rain, according to local authorities [and] there was little indication that Rio Grande do Sul’s moment of misery was near its end. Authorities warned that the flood water that has overwhelmed the state capital would soon begin moving elsewhere, swamping surrounding areas from which residents were being evacuated. Meanwhile, weather forecasters predicted new storms and heavy rain in the southern section of the state.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/07/brazil-flooding-death-toll-displaced-missing
see also https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/brazil-floods-disrupt-rail-road-access-major-grains-ports-2024-05-07/Global peak water limit of future groundwater withdrawals
Over the past 50 years, humans have extracted the Earth’s groundwater stocks at a steep rate, largely to fuel global agro-economic development. Given society’s growing reliance on groundwater, we explore ‘peak water limits’ to investigate whether, when and where humanity might reach peak groundwater extraction ... we simulate groundwater withdrawals across 235 water basins under 900 future scenarios of global change over the twenty-first century [and] find that global non-renewable groundwater withdrawals exhibit a distinct peak-and-decline signature, comparable to historical observations of other depletable resources (for example, minerals), in nearly all (98%) scenarios, peaking on average around mid-century, followed by a decline through 2100 ... exposing about half (44%) of the global population to groundwater stress. Most of these basins are in countries with the highest current extraction rates, including the United States, Mexico, Pakistan, India, China, Saudi Arabia and Iran.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-024-01306-w
see also https://www.newscientist.com/article/2430674-around-half-the-world-could-lose-easily-accessible-groundwater-by-2050/
see also https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-13430787/California-Texas-Midwest-states-groundwater.htmlRapid climate change: Netherlands needs to prepare for heat, drought & flooding
The Netherlands’ climate is changing rapidly and is becoming hotter, wetter, and dryer, [said] the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) ... The current climate risks already have “a major impact on our daily lives” and are “expected to only increase in the future” ... Over the past 30 years, weather record after weather record has toppled in the Netherlands and it’s happening faster than expected.
https://nltimes.nl/2024/05/14/rapid-climate-change-netherlands-needs-prepare-heat-drought-floodingAs the Arctic tundra warms, soil microbes likely will ramp up CO2 production
Climate change is warming the Arctic tundra about four times faster than the rest of the planet. Now, a study suggests that rising temperatures will spur underground microbes there to produce more carbon dioxide — potentially creating a feedback loop that worsens climate change ... Scientists have long suspected that warming will wake this sleeping giant, prompting soil microbes to release more of the greenhouse gas CO2. But it’s been difficult to demonstrate in field studies ... During the summer growing season, the researchers placed clear, open-topped plastic chambers [that warmed] the air inside by an average of 1.4 degrees Celsius. The researchers monitored how much CO2 microbes in the soil released into the air and compared that data with measurements from nearby exposed patches. The study, published online April 17 in Nature, found that the 1.4C temperature increase caused an average 30 percent increase in CO2 respiration across the experimental sites compared with the exposed sites.
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/arctic-tundra-soil-microbe-carbon-dioxide
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07274-72023 summer warmth unparalleled over the past 2,000 years
2023 has been reported as the hottest year on record ... Here, we combine observed and reconstructed June-July-August (JJA) surface air temperatures to show that 2023 was the warmest [Northern Hemisphere] extra-tropical summer over the past 2000 years exceeding the 95% confidence range of natural climate variability by more than half a degree Celsius. Comparison of the 2023 JJA warming against the coldest reconstructed summer in 536 CE reveals a maximum range of pre-Anthropocene-to-2023 temperatures of 3.93°C.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07512-yRecord-breaking increase in CO2 levels in world’s atmosphere
The largest ever recorded leap in the amount of carbon dioxide laden in the world’s atmosphere has just occurred, according to researchers who monitor the relentless accumulation of the primary gas that is heating the planet. The global average concentration of carbon dioxide in March this year was 4.7 parts per million (or ppm) higher than it it was in March last year, which is a record-breaking increase in CO2 levels over a 12-month period.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/09/carbon-dioxide-atmosphere-recordThe Middle East Is Becoming Literally Uninhabitable
This summer, several picturesque countries in the Middle East became tinderboxes. As extreme temperatures and severe droughts ravaged the region, forests burned, and cities became islands of unbearable heat. [But] this is just the start of a trend. The Middle East is warming at twice the global average and by 2050 will be 4 degrees Celsius warmer as compared with the 1.5 degree mark that scientists have prescribed to save humanity ... According to Germany’s Max Planck Institute, many cities in the Middle East may literally become uninhabitable before the end of the century. And the region, ravaged by war and mired in sectarianism, may be singularly ill-prepared to face the challenges that threaten its collective existence. Jos Lelieveld, an expert on the climate of the Middle East and Mediterranean at the Max Planck Institute, said the Middle East has overtaken the European Union in greenhouse gas emissions even though it is “particularly strongly affected” by climate change. “In several cities in the Middle East, temperatures have been soaring well in excess of 50 degrees Celsius,” Lelieveld said. “If nothing changes, cities may experience temperatures of 60 degrees Celsius in the future, which will be dangerous for those who do not have access to air conditioning.” Air conditioners have become a luxury even for the relatively wealthy in countries such as Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. These countries are encumbered by war, Western sanctions, or a self-serving ruling elite. The thought of what will happen in these cities as climate change worsens living conditions, if the standards of governance remain the same, is a frightening one.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/08/24/the-middle-east-is-becoming-literally-uninhabitable/Trees spreading across the Great Plains are making climate change worse
In most temperate grasslands around the world, gaining a tree canopy won't help cool the planet
We normally think of trees as being good for the environment. But in parts of the Midwest and Great Plains, they're heating up the earth as woodlands take over grasslands ... new research clarifies that deploying trees against global warming backfires in parts of the U.S. and Canada, including much of the Great Plains. Trees darken the ground. So a place that otherwise would reflect more sunlight and send some of its heat straight back into outer space instead soaks up that heat. In some regions, this outweighs the trees’ potential carbon storage. This is the case for many grasslands ... The portion of sunlight that bounces back into space is called albedo. Trees warm the planet in places where they reduce the ground’s reflectivity a lot, and don’t capture enough carbon to offset that problem.
https://www.kcur.org/news/2024-05-06/trees-are-spreading-across-the-great-plains-theyre-actually-making-climate-change-worse
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-46577-1The ‘world’s largest’ vacuum to suck climate pollution out of the air just opened.
Direct air capture, or DAC, is a technology designed to suck in air and strip out the carbon using chemicals. The carbon can then be injected deep beneath the ground, reused or transformed into solid products ... Climeworks started building Mammoth in June 2022. It has a modular design with space for 72 “collector containers” — the vacuum parts of the machine that capture carbon from the air [and] there are currently 12 of these in place ... Mammoth will be able to pull 36,000 tons of carbon from the atmosphere a year at full capacity ... Climeworks did not give an exact cost for each ton of carbon removed, but said it was closer to $1,000 a ton than $100 a ton – the latter of which is widely seen as a key threshold for making the technology affordable and viable ... the aim is to reach $300 to $350 a ton by 2030 before hitting $100 a ton around 2050 ... The new plant is [just] a tiny fraction of what’s needed. All the carbon removal equipment in the world is only capable of removing around 0.01 million metric tons of carbon a year, a far cry from the 70 million tons a year needed by 2030 to meet global climate goals, according to the International Energy Agency.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/08/climate/direct-air-capture-plant-iceland-climate-intl/index.htmlHawaii’s Mauna Loa Observatory just captured ominous signals about the planet’s health
Carbon dioxide levels were 4.7 parts per million higher in March than they were a year earlier, the largest annual leap ever ... "Not only is CO2 still rising in the atmosphere — it's increasing faster and faster," said Arlyn Andrews, a climate scientist at NOAA's Global Monitoring Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado. Once CO2 makes it into the atmosphere, it stays there for hundreds of years, acting as a blanket trapping heat. That blanket has been steadily thickening ever since humans turned materials that were once dense stores of carbon — oil and coal, primarily — into fuel to burn. Each annual maximum has raised new alarm about the curve’s unceasing upward trend — nearing 427 parts per million in the most recent readings, which is more than 50 percent above preindustrial levels and the highest in at least 4.3 million years, according to NOAA. It will take some four decades to stop the annual growth in CO2 concentrations, even if all emissions began declining now, Andrews said [and] for CO2 concentrations to fall back below 400 parts per million, it would take more than two centuries even if emissions dropped close to zero by the end of this century.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/05/10/carbon-dioxide-record-mauna-loa/Bumblebee nests are overheating to fatal levels, study finds
More frequent heatwaves mean bees are unable to thermoregulate their hives
As the climate crisis pushes average temperatures up and generates heatwaves, bumblebees will struggle to keep their homes habitable ... Dave Goulson, a professor of biology at the University of Sussex, who was not involved in the research, said: “We have known for a long time that bumblebees are cool-climate specialists ... there are even some that live in the Arctic. That means an obvious problem with climate change – they are vulnerable to warming.” The paper’s findings, said Goulson, who has spent 30 years studying bumblebees, are “really depressing”. “It is kind of heartbreaking to think that many may disappear.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/04/bumblebees-overheating-threat-global-heating-temperatures-aoe
reporting on a study at https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/frbee.2024.1351616/fullKenya: Floods cause widespread devastation in Nairobi
The UN says more than 40,000 have been forced from their homes Roads have turned into rivers in the Kenyan capital Nairobi, as a top official said flooding had "escalated to extreme levels". Heavy rain has pounded Kenya in recent days, causing widespread devastation. The UN says that at least 32 people have lost their lives and more than 40,000 have been forced from their homes because of the rain and flooding ... "The situation in Nairobi has escalated to extreme levels. The County Government for all its efforts is clearly overwhelmed."
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-68888110‘Fields are completely underwater’: UK farmers navigate record rainfall
Farmers have been dealing with record-breaking rainfall over at least the past year, meaning food produced in Britain has fallen drastically. Livestock and crops have been affected as fields have been submerged since last autumn on account of it being an exceptionally wet 18 months. "The constraints that we are facing this year means we are going to have an appalling harvest. We’ve hardly got any crops in the ground at all ... Generally you plant in the autumn but the difficulty we’ve had this year is that from mid-October to effectively now, there has just been non-stop rain ... We’ve all been caught out this year."
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/22/fields-underwater-uk-farmers-navigate-record-rainfall-food-production-crisis-wet-weatherChina's cities are sinking, putting tens of millions at risk
Major cities across China are sinking, putting a substantial portion of the country's rapidly urbanizing population in harm's way in the coming decades ... Out of 82 major Chinese cities, nearly half are measurably subsiding, according to the new study, which was published in the journal Science and conducted by more than 50 scientists at Chinese research institutes. The areas that are sinking are home to nearly one third of China's urban population. And the authors estimate that about a quarter of China's coastal land will be below sea level in the next hundred years, largely due to subsidence. That means tens of millions of people are already at risk, and that could grow to hundreds of millions if China's cities continue to both grow in population and subside at their current rate.
https://www.npr.org/2024/04/18/1244795971/chinas-cities-are-sinking-putting-tens-of-millions-at-risk
reporting on a study at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adl4366Massive floods threaten tens of millions as intense rains batter southern China
Multiple days of heavy rains have lashed southern China, unleashing deadly floods and threatening to upend the lives of tens of millions of people as rescuers rush to evacuate residents trapped by rising waters. Guangdong province, an economic powerhouse home to 127 million people, has seen widespread flooding that has forced more than 110,000 people to be relocated, state media reported, citing the local government. Since April 16, sustained torrential rains have pounded the Pearl River Delta, China’s manufacturing heartland and one of the country’s most populated regions, with four weather stations in Guangdong registering record rainfall for April. Scientists warn that the climate crisis will amplify extreme weather, making it deadlier and more frequent. Since last week, at least 44 rivers in the Pearl River basin have swelled above the warning line, threatening to burst their banks, according to state broadcaster CCTV. On the Bei River, which flows into the Pearl River, authorities have warned of a “once a century” flood expected to reach 5.8 meters (19 feet) above the warning limit. The tributary had already burst its banks on April 8, marking the earliest arrival of its annual flood season since records began. The “massive flood” at the Bei River is the earliest on record to hit China in the highest category of a four-tier classification system. Further heavy rainfall is expected to hit Guangdong this week.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/22/china/china-guangdong-floods-intl-hnk/index.html'Ping pong-sized' hailstones ravage famous French wine region
Huge hailstones, ranging from the size of a ping pong ball to the size of a lime, rained down on north Burgundy, with Chablis particularly badly affected, according to French weather agency Météo-France. “We’ve never seen anything like this, it’s dramatic,” [said] Julie Fèvre, a winemaker ... Thunderstorms are common this time of year but this week’s storms, bringing intense rainfall and large hailstones, were “particularly virulent,” [said] Météo-France ... Extreme weather, including drought and heat as well as frost and hailstorms, is affecting the wine industry globally. The world’s wine harvest in 2023 was the lowest in 61 years because of “extreme climatic conditions” as well as widespread fungal diseases, an April report from the International Organisation of Vine and Wine revealed. “Everything is partially destroyed,” Paul-Étienne Defaix, another winemaker said.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/severe-weather/ping-pong-sized-hailstones-ravage-famous-french-wine-region/1647365Rapidly rising levels of TFA ‘forever chemical’ alarm experts
Trifluoroacetic acid found in drinking water and rain is thought to damage fertility and child development
Rapidly rising levels of TFA, a class of “forever chemical” thought to damage fertility and child development, are being found in drinking water, blood and rain, causing alarm among experts. TFA, or trifluoroacetic acid, is a type of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substance (PFAS), a group of human-made chemicals used widely in consumer products that do not break down for thousands of years. Many of the substances have been linked to negative effects on human health. Studies from across the world are reporting sharp rises in TFA. “Everywhere you look it’s increasing. There’s no study where the concentration of TFA hasn’t increased,” said David Behringer, an environmental consultant who has studied TFA in rain for the German government. “If you’re drinking water, you’re drinking a lot of TFA, wherever you are in the world ... China had a 17-fold increase of TFA in surface waters in a decade, the US had a sixfold increase in 23 years.” TFA in rainwater in Germany has been found to have increased fivefold in two decades ... “We all have been experiencing rising TFA concentrations in our blood since the Montreal protocol [banned CFCs]. Future generations will have increasing concentrations in their blood until some kind of global action is taken. Accumulation [in the environment] is essentially irreversible and I’m afraid the impact on humans and the environment won’t be recognised by scientists until it is too late.” Last month, the German chemical regulator informed the European Chemicals Agency that it wanted TFA classified as reprotoxic, meaning it can harm human reproductive function, fertility and foetal development [but] TFA is incredibly difficult to remove from water. “There’s no way to get TFA out,” said Behringer.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/may/01/rapidly-rising-levels-of-tfa-forever-chemical-alarm-expertsThe drowning south: Where seas are rising at alarming speed
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/interactive/2024/southern-us-sea-level-rise-risk-citiesClimate change: Indian Ocean racing towards unprecedented heatwave crisis
The rapid warming is not limited to the surface - the heat content of the Indian Ocean down to 2,000 meters is currently increasing at a rate of 4.5 zettajoules per decade. A comprehensive new study led by Roxy Mathew Koll of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology paints a dire picture of the accelerating climate changes unfolding in the Indian Ocean. The research, published by Elsevier, forecasts substantial ocean warming, rising sea levels, and an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. "The future increase in heat content is comparable to adding the energy equivalent of one Hiroshima atomic bomb detonation every second, all day, every day, for a decade," warned Koll. This alarming trend is driving the Indian Ocean towards a near-permanent state of marine heatwaves, with the number of heatwave days per year expected to surge from the current 20 to a staggering 220-250 by 2050.
https://www.indiatoday.in/environment/story/climate-change-indian-ocean-racing-towards-unprecedented-heatwave-crisis-2534521-2024-05-02
reporting on a study at https://www.rocksea.org/bin/research/Roxy_Future_Indian_Ocean_Elsevier_2024.pdfAntarctic Slope Undercurrent and onshore heat transport driven by ice shelf melting
Elevated ice shelf melt rates in West Antarctica have been attributed to transport of warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) onto the continental shelf [from] an eastward, subsurface slope current (referred to as the Antarctic Slope Undercurrent) ... the bathymetric steering of the undercurrent toward the ice shelf is driven by upwelling of meltwater within the ice shelf cavity. Increased basal melt therefore strengthens the undercurrent and enhances onshore CDW transport, which indicates a positive feedback that may accelerate future melt of ice shelves, potentially further destabilizing the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adl0601Record-breaking heat and humidity predicted for tropics this summer
https://phys.org/news/2024-04-humidity-tropics-summer.html
reporting on a study at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GL106990Plant apocalypse: how new diseases are destroying EU trees and crops
Since scientists first discovered Xylella fastidiosa in 2013 in Puglia, Italy, it has killed a third of the region’s 60 million olive trees – which once produced almost half of Italy’s olive oil – many of which were centuries old ... “The greatest part of the territory was completely destroyed,” says Donato Boscia, a plant virologist and head researcher on Xylella at the Institute for Sustainable Plant Protection in Bari. A decade later, far from nearing resolution, the threat to European plants from Xylella and other diseases is only growing ... Across the EU, data shows, outbreaks of newly introduced plant disease have continued unabated at an average rate of 70 a year between 2015 and 2020, despite regulations introduced to stop their spread in 2016. While a number of member states have taken steps to prevent and curb the outbreaks, scientists, plant epidemiologists and agronomists say it is still insufficient ... with so many ports of entry, scientists and regulators can’t keep up with the volumes coming in. Trioza erytreae, a sap-sucking pest, has been endangering Portuguese citrus; a bacterium infecting carrots and celery has been raising concerns around the continent; and Hymenoscyphus fraxineus has been killing ash trees in Poland. Many scientists fear the spread will be helped by the climate crisis, which is making Europe a warmer, more hospitable place for foreign plant pests to thrive.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/24/plant-apocalypse-how-deadly-imported-diseases-are-destroying-eu-trees-and-crops-aoeEco-Collapse Hasn’t Happened Yet, But You Can See It Coming
[A] warning of ecological calamity that made headlines more than 50 years ago is looking all too frighteningly prescient right now. In 1972, a group of MIT scientists published a book, The Limits to Growth, based on computer simulations of the world economy from 1900 to 2100. It plotted out trajectories for the Earth’s and humanity’s vital signs, based on several scenarios. In every scenario, though, their simulated future world economies eventually ran into limits — resource depletion, pollution, crop failures — that triggered declines in industrial output, food production, and population ... we’re now living out those very simulations. The Limits to Growth analysis forecast that, with business-as-usual, production would grow for five decades before hitting its peak sometime in the last half of the 2020s (here we come!). Then decline would set in. And sure enough, we now have scientists across a range of disciplines issuing warnings that we’re perilously close to exactly that turnaround point. This year, a simulation using an updated version of The Limits to Growth model showed industrial production peaking just about now, while food production, too, could hit a peak soon. Like the 1972 original, this updated analysis foresees distinct declines on the other side of those peaks ... Their concluding remarks are even more chilling: “As a society, we have to admit that, despite 50 years of knowledge about the dynamics of the collapse of our life support systems, we have failed to initiate a systematic change to prevent this collapse. It is becoming increasingly clear that, despite technological advances, the change needed to put us on a different trajectory will also require a change in belief systems, mindsets, and the way we organize our society” ... indefinite expansion of the U.S. and global economy into the distant future is doomed to fail, but not before it’s crippled our ecological and social systems. In its 2024 Global Resources Outlook, the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) reported that humanity’s annual consumption of physical resources had grown more than threefold in the half-century since The Limits to Growth was published ... Old-fashioned computer simulations and present-day realities are, it seems, speaking to us in unison, warning that civilization itself is in danger of collapse. Growth — whether expressed as more dollars accumulated, more tons of material stuff produced, more carbon burned, or more wastes emitted — is coming to an end. The only question is: Will it happen as a collapse of society, or could the reversal of material growth be undertaken rationally in ways that would avoid a descent into a Mad Max-style conflict of all against all?
https://tomdispatch.com/eco-collapse-hasnt-happened-yet-but-you-can-see-it-coming/
see also 'Limits to Growth' entries elsewhere on this pageDrought causes power cuts in Ecuador
A severe drought has led to power cuts in Ecuador, which relies on hydroelectrical sources for much of its power. Energy companies published a schedule of power cuts which has seen the capital and other major cities go without electricity for hours on end. The drought has already led to water rationing in neighboring Colombia ... The energy ministry said Ecuador's power system had been affected by "several unprecedented situations", including a drought, increased temperatures and minimum water levels ... energy minister, Roberto Luque, warned there were no "short-term solutions" to solve the country's energy crisis.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-68835127There’s an Explosion of Plastic Waste. Big Companies Say ‘We’ve Got This.’
But the technology is struggling to deliver
The traditional approach to recycling is to simply grind up and melt plastic waste. The new, advanced-recycling operators say they can break down the plastic much further, into more basic molecular building blocks, and transform it into new plastic ... PureCycle’s woes are emblematic of broad trouble faced by a new generation of recycling plants that have struggled to keep up with the growing tide of global plastic production, which scientists say could almost quadruple by midcentury. A chemical-recycling facility in Tigard, Ore., a joint venture between Agilyx and Americas Styrenics, is in the process of shutting down after millions of dollars in losses. A plant in Ashley, Ind., that had aimed to recycle 100,000 tons of plastic a year by 2021 had processed only 2,000 tons in total as of late 2023 ... the advanced recycling plants are struggling to make a dent in the roughly 36 million tons of plastic Americans discard each year, which is more than any other country. Even if the 10 remaining chemical-recycling plants in America were to operate at full capacity, they would together process some 456,000 tons of plastic waste [which is only] enough to raise the plastic recycling rate — which has languished below 10 percent for decades — by a single percentage point ... “The industry is trying to say they have a solution,” said Terrence J. Collins, a professor of chemistry and sustainability science at Carnegie Mellon University. “It’s a non-solution.” PureCycle is now being sued by other investors who accuse the company of making false statements and misleading investors about its setbacks.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/05/climate/plastic-recycling.htmlNo sign of greenhouse gases increases slowing in 2023
Levels of the three most important human-caused greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide (CO2), methane and nitrous oxide – continued their steady climb during 2023, according to NOAA scientists ... The global surface concentration of CO2, averaged across all 12 months of 2023, was 419.3 parts per million (ppm), an increase of 2.8 ppm during the year. This was the 12th consecutive year CO2 increased by more than 2 ppm ... atmospheric methane increased rapidly during the 1980s, nearly stabilized in the late-1990s and early 2000s, then resumed a rapid rise in 2007 ... “In addition to the record high methane growth in 2020-2022, we also observed sharp changes in the isotope composition of the methane that indicates an even more dominant role of microbial emission increase” [raising] the possibility that climate change is causing wetlands to give off increasing methane emissions in a feedback loop.
https://research.noaa.gov/2024/04/05/no-sign-of-greenhouse-gases-increases-slowing-in-2023/Searing heat is back across Southeast Asia and it’s not going away anytime soon
Home to more than 675 million people across 11 countries, the region has seen temperatures reach unprecedented levels – with little respite from merciless heat and humidity ... “We thought temperatures last year were unbearable but this year has beaten that – temperatures in Bangkok won’t drop below 30 degrees Celsius, even at night ... The trend is inescapable. The region has to prepare for terrible heat for the rest of April and most of May” ... In nearby Vietnam, the heat wave brought intense droughts to the south – driving temperatures up to nearly 104 degrees Fahrenheit and wreaking havoc on the country’s vital agriculture industry [where] rice fields and rivers have dried up, according to Vietnamese media reports, and farmers have been struggling without rainwater for their crops ... the world continues to blast through climate records, with deadly heat waves becoming the norm ... one of the most worrying characteristics of the heat wave now sweeping across the region is its prolonged duration - with no end in sight.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/10/asia/southeast-asia-extreme-heat-climate-intl-hnk/index.htmlThe Widest-Ever Global Coral Crisis Will Hit Within Weeks, Scientists Say
The world’s coral reefs are in the throes of [yet another] global bleaching event caused by extraordinary ocean temperatures, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and international partners announced ... Coral reefs are vital ecosystems: limestone cradles of marine life that nurture an estimated quarter of ocean species at some point during their life cycles, support fish that provide protein for millions of people and protect coasts from storms. [But] for the last year, ocean temperatures have been off the charts ... The news is the latest example of climate scientists’ alarming predictions coming to pass as the planet heats. Despite decades of warnings from scientists and pledges from leaders, nations are burning more fossil fuels than ever and greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise ... more than 54 percent of the world’s coral area has experienced bleaching-level heat stress in the past year, and that number is increasing by about 1 percent per week, Dr. Manzello said. He added that within a week or two, “this event is likely to be the most spatially extensive global bleaching event on record” ... Each of the three previous global bleaching events has been worse than the last ... “The feeling is like, ‘My God, this is happening,’” said Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, a professor of marine studies at the University of Queensland who published early predictions about how global warming would be catastrophic for coral reefs. “Now we’re at the point where we’re in the disaster movie.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/15/climate/coral-reefs-bleaching.html
NOAA Coral Reef Watch https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/5km/index_5km_dhw.phpRecord hot March caps warmest 12 months on record — report
Europe's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said on Tuesday that March 2024 was the warmest on record, making it the tenth consecutive month to break heat records ... warmer than the previous March, and 1.68C hotter than an average March between the years 1850-1900, the reference period for the pre-industrial era. Above-average temperatures were recorded in parts of Africa, South America, Greenland and Antarctica. Sea surface temperatures also hit a "shocking new high," the report said ... "It's the long-term trend with exceptional records that has us very concerned," [said] Samantha Burgess, deputy director of C3S. "Seeing records like this — month in, month out — really shows us that our climate is changing rapidly," she added ... scientists say that greenhouse gas emissions are the main cause of the rising temperatures.
https://www.dw.com/en/record-hot-march-caps-warmest-12-months-on-record-report/a-68772772
reporting on a study at https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-march-2024-tenth-month-row-be-hottest-recordNorthern Permafrost Region Emits More Greenhouse Gases Than It Captures
Permafrost underlies about 14 million square kilometers of land in and around the Arctic. The top 3 meters contain an estimated 1 trillion metric tons of carbon and 55 billion metric tons of nitrogen. Historically, the northern permafrost region has been a sink for carbon, as frozen soils inhibit microbial decomposition. But rising temperatures contribute to thawing permafrost and enhance the biogeochemical activities that exacerbate climate change by releasing greenhouse gases ... Wetlands were some of the largest methane emitters, and lakes contributed substantially as well. Dry tundra was the biggest driver of N2O release, and permafrost bogs were a close second.
https://eos.org/research-spotlights/northern-permafrost-region-emits-more-greenhouse-gases-than-it-captures
reporting on a study at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GB007953Ocean currents threaten to collapse Antarctic ice shelves, study finds
A new study published in Nature Communications has revealed that the interplay between meandering ocean currents and the ocean floor induces upwelling velocity, transporting warm water to shallower depths. This mechanism contributes substantially to the melting of ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea of West Antarctica. These ice shelves are destabilizing rapidly and contributing to sea level rise ... In a departure from prior assumptions linking ice shelf melting primarily to winds over the Southern Ocean, this study underscores the significant role played by the interactions between meandering ocean currents and the ocean floor in driving the melting process. The Pine Island and Thwaites ice shelves are among the fastest-changing in Antarctica and are of particular interest due to their vulnerability to warming ocean waters ... their rapid melting and potential collapse pose a significant threat to coastal communities worldwide because of the resulting rise in global sea levels.
https://phys.org/news/2024-04-ocean-currents-threaten-collapse-antarctic.html
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-47084-zAntarctica's sea ice hit another low this year—understanding how ocean warming is driving the loss is key
Even just a decade ago, sea ice reliably rebuilt itself each winter. But something has changed in how the Southern Ocean works and the area covered by sea ice has decreased dramatically ... The annual freeze-thaw cycle of Antarctic sea ice is one of the defining properties of our planet. It affects the reflectivity of a vast area of the globe, oxygenates the deep ocean, provides habitat across the Southern Ocean food web and plays a role in the resilience of ice shelves ... Continental shelf seas around Antarctica are special because of the presence of sea ice—but this varies in space and time. The US National Snow and Ice Data Center has developed a visualization tool to compare sea-ice conditions during different times. It shows that by the end of summer, the Ross Sea region holds only a few patches of sea ice. And this year, the patches were even fewer than in the past.
https://phys.org/news/2024-04-antarctica-sea-ice-year-ocean.html
see also https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/37/7/JCLI-D-23-0479.1.xml
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-021-00768-3Climate crisis increasing frequency of deadly ocean upwells, study finds
A climate-disrupted ocean is pushing sharks, rays and other species to flee ever-hotter water in the tropics, only for them to be killed by increasingly intense upwells of cold water from the depths, a study has found. The paper, published in Nature Climate Change on Monday, found that shifts in ocean currents and pressure systems driven by climate breakdown were increasing the frequency and intensity of upwellings.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/15/climate-crisis-deadly-ocean-upswells-cold-water-study
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-01966-8The Flooding Will Come “No Matter What”
The complex, contradictory and heartbreaking process of American climate migration is underway
People have always moved as their environment has changed. But today, the climate is warming faster, and the population is larger, than at any point in history. As the U.S. gets hotter, its coastal waters rise higher, its wildfires burn larger and its droughts last longer, the notion that humankind can triumph over nature is fading, and with it, slowly, goes the belief that self-determination and personal preference can be the driving factors in choosing where to live. Scientific modeling of these pressures suggest a sweeping change is coming in the shape and location of communities across America, a change that promises to transform the country’s politics, culture and economy. It has already begun. More Americans are displaced by catastrophic climate-change-driven storms and floods and fires every year ... In a 2021 study published in the journal Climatic Change, researchers found that 57% of the Americans they surveyed believed that changes in their climate would push them to consider a move sometime in the next decade. Also in 2021, the national real estate firm Redfin conducted a similar nationwide survey, finding that nearly half of Americans who planned to move that year said that climate risks were already driving their decisions [and] when Redfin broadened its survey to include more than a thousand people who had not yet decided to move, a whopping 75% of them said that they would think twice before buying a home in a place facing rising heat or other climate risks ... “You see your community is going, and they tell you that this is going to happen no matter what,” Colette said. “So even if we are successful in what we do next, we will lose those places. I couldn’t believe what I saw, that this place I hold so dear and that I have such a long memory of, all of those stories are going to go. Who I am and what I am describing is going to be lost. It’s surreal.”
https://www.propublica.org/article/climate-migration-louisiana-slidell-floodingClimate crisis brings boomtime for British wine [but threaten to devastate typical wine regions]
The climate crisis led to the UK experiencing its second-hottest year on record last year, with rising temperatures creating increasingly ideal conditions for growing grapes in Britain. But extreme heat also threatens to devastate typical wine regions, such as areas of Spain, Italy and southern California, where harvests are predicted to plummet. “I don’t want to put a positive spin on climate change, because it’s not a positive thing,” says [UK winemaker] Pike. “For every degree it goes up here the temperature and the weather changes elsewhere. People who are growing in Burgundy are facing things they have never faced before because of the unpredictability of the weather.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/apr/12/its-a-sun-trap-climate-crisis-brings-boomtime-for-british-wineMorocco drought: Satellite images show vital Al Massira reservoir is shrinking
Morocco's second-largest reservoir that serves some of its major cities and has been central to farm irrigation is drying up; Al Massira Dam, which sits around halfway between Casablanca and Marrakesh, contains just 3% of the average amount of water that was there nine years ago ... the impact of the drought stretches across the country [and] has been exacerbated by evaporation which increases as the heat rises. Last year, Morocco recorded its highest-ever temperature of 50.4C on 11 August.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-68665826‘Alarming’ Ocean Temperatures Suggest This Hurricane Season Will Be a Daunting One
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/04/climate/ocean-temperature-hurricane-forecast.html
see also https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/04/it-could-well-be-a-blockbuster-hurricane-season-and-thats-not-a-good-thing/
reporting on a study at https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.htmlWorld’s biggest economies pumping billions into [extracting] fossil fuels in poor nations
The G20 group of developed and developing economies, and the multilateral development banks they fund, put $142bn (£112bn) into fossil fuel developments overseas from 2020 to 2022. Canada, Japan and South Korea were the biggest sources of such finance in the three years studied, and gas received more funding than either coal or oil. The G7 group of biggest economies, to which Japan and Canada belong, pledged in 2022 to halt overseas funding of fossil fuels. US, Germany and Italy also provided billions in funding a year to overseas fossil fuel projects before the end of 2022-23, according to the report.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/09/worlds-biggest-economies-pumping-billions-into-fossil-fuels-in-poor-nations
reporting on a study at https://priceofoil.org/2024/04/09/public-enemies-assessing-mdb-and-g20-international-finance-institutions-energy-finance/Four decades of glacial data reveals substantial losses and water worries
An analysis of glacial data spanning four decades ... reveals significant losses in glacial mass and points out just how important this could be for the people and ecosystems that rely on the melt waters from these glaciers. It also highlights the flood risks associated with sudden catastrophic changes in the glaciers as they melt ... [glaciers] play a major role in sustaining river flow and supporting human activities such as agriculture and hydroelectric power generation, as well maintaining the natural, local ecosystems, wildlife, and habitats. The impact of glacial loss will be gradual, but with accelerating loss due to climate change there is the risk of melted glacial lakes suddenly release huge volumes of water downstream, which could devastate human settlements and the ecosystems in its path.
https://phys.org/news/2024-04-decades-glacial-reveals-substantial-losses.html
reporting on a study at https://www.inderscience.com/info/inarticle.php?artid=137781‘Simply mind-boggling’: world record temperature jump in Antarctic raises fears of catastrophe
[Scientists] recorded the largest jump in temperature ever measured [when the Antarctic] experienced a rise of 38.5C above its seasonal average: a world record. This startling leap – in the coldest place on the planet – left polar researchers struggling for words to describe it. “It is simply mind-boggling,” said Prof Michael Meredith, science leader at the British Antarctic Survey ... Glaciers bordering the west Antarctic ice-sheet are losing mass to the ocean at an increasing rate, while levels of sea ice, which float on the oceans around the continent, have plunged dramatically ... the Antarctic, once thought to be too cold to experience the early impacts of global warming, is now succumbing dramatically and rapidly to the swelling levels of greenhouse gases that humans continue to pump into the atmosphere. These dangers were highlighted by a team of scientists, led by Will Hobbs of the University of Tasmania, in a paper that was published last week in the Journal of Climate.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/06/simply-mind-boggling-world-record-temperature-jump-in-antarctic-raises-fears-of-catastrophePFAS ‘Forever Chemicals’ Are Pervasive in Water Worldwide, Study Finds
Over the last fifty years such chemicals have cut worldwide fertility in half, among other health effects
A new study of more than 45,000 water samples around the world found that about 31 percent of groundwater samples tested that weren’t near any obvious source of contamination had PFAS levels considered harmful to human health by the Environmental Protection Agency [which] “sets off alarm bells,” said Denis O’Carroll, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of New South Wales and one of the authors of the study, which was published on Monday in Nature Geoscience. “Not just for PFAS, but also for all the other chemicals that we put out into the environment. We don’t necessarily know their long-term impacts to us or the ecosystem.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/08/climate/pfas-forever-chemicals-water.html
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-024-01402-8Our Oldest Secret: We Have Been Super-Predators for 2 Million Years
Analysis can also help explain why it’s so hard for us to preserve our environment
New research has revealed one of the deepest and oldest secrets of who we are as a species. Humans are natural born killers: super-predators designed by evolution to subsist mainly on the meat and fat of large animals, and genetically hardwired to hunt our prey into extinction, says a new study on the eating habits of prehistoric hominins going back 2 million years. This meta-analysis collated information from some 400 previous studies, conducted over decades by unconnected scientists, and providing biological, genetic, archaeological and molecular data on the diet of our Stone Age ancestors. The overwhelming evidence gleaned from this research belies the common belief that humans are adaptable omnivores who won at the evolutionary game because of their flexibility and smarts. Instead, it supports a new paradigm of our evolution ... that we are specialized hypercarnivores who diversified our diet only at the tail-end of our evolutionary story, and only because we were forced to do so after killing off our main food source [which] can also help explain a number of problems that humans face today: from why so many of us have trouble digesting certain foods to why it’s so hard for us to preserve our environment ... The team investigated “The evolution of the human trophic level during the Pleistocene,” which is a technical way of saying that it tried to glean the position that Stone Age hominins occupied in the food chain – essentially, a prehistoric who-ate-who. Our very distant ancestors, such as the australopithecines and Homo habilis, had already started to move away from the typical plant-based diet of primates and incorporate more meat in their eating habits, the researchers say. But some two million years ago a new hominin emerged in Africa that would take the world by storm, and is believed to have eventually evolved into modern Homo sapiens. [Homo erectus] was the first member of our species to climb to the top of the food chain and become what zoologists call a hypercarnivore – a mammal that obtains more than 70 percent of its food from other animals. Since erectus, humans have remained at the top of the food chain ... “Most researchers hold the view that [prehistoric] humans could eat whatever they wanted: plants, animals, whatever was available.” From this assumption comes the idea is that Homo sapiens evolved and spread across the world because it was extremely flexible. But that paradigm is flawed, because it is largely based on studies of the behavior of modern-day hunter-gatherers. These groups have access to technologies, such as metals and controlled fire, that our ancestors didn’t have. Additionally, they have been adapting for tens of thousands of years to the depletion of megafauna, which forced humans to learn to hunt smaller prey and forage or domesticate plants. If we look at the evidence encoded in our own biology, a very different picture emerges. For example, the human colon is 77 percent smaller than that of the chimpanzee, while our small intestine is 64 percent longer. The colon is where energy is extracted from plant fiber, while the small intestine is where sugars, proteins and fat are absorbed. This means that after the human lineage diverged from the chimp line, around six million years ago, we progressively became more adapted at extracting energy from meat, and lost most of our ability to do so from plants. The same progression toward a carnivorous diet can be seen in the evolution of our teeth. Australopithecines, who lived from four to two million years ago, had big jaws and large flat molars, necessary features to grind large amounts of plant material. With Homo erectus, mandibles and teeth shrink to a size comparable to that of modern humans [implying] that by then we had migrated to softer food, like meat. Multiple studies of isotopes in the bones of hominins have also shown that humans subsisted largely on an animal-based diet until the end of the Paleolithic, less than 20,000 years ago ... It also perhaps is not a coincidence that Homo erectus was not just the first hypercarnivore in our lineage, but was also the first hominin to leave Africa and populate Eurasia. Several researchers have suggested that erectus may have been following the migration of megafauna ... finally, this image of humans as all-consuming predators reminds us of the destructive effects of our behavior can have on our ecosystem and the massive effort required to curb what seem to be our most primal instincts. “Humans are not a good caretaker of the environment, we are built to just go for the next animal and eat it.”
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-our-oldest-secret-we-have-been-super-predators-for-2-million-years-1.9680599
also available at https://archive.is/8DgNV
see also https://phys.org/news/2021-04-humans-apex-predators-million-years.html
reporting on a study at https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ajpa.24247Record Heat in Europe, Asia Closes Another Extremely Warm Month For Planet
Heat was most widespread in Europe, where many countries set national high temperature records for March. But it was also unusually warm in Asia, parts of Central America and West Africa. Human-caused climate change from the burning of coal, oil and natural gas is fueling this warmth ... Eight countries set national records for March warmth. Scores of high temperature records also were set in Greece, Turkey, Ukraine and Russia ... Japan bathed in midsummer temperatures to end March. Record heat also closed the month in parts of West Africa, Central America and several tropical locations around the world. A study published Friday in Science Advances found that heat waves are lasting longer and covering greater distances. NOAA says there is a 45.1 percent chance that 2024 will be the warmest year on record, surpassing 2023, and a 99.9 percent chance that it will rank among the top five warmest years.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/04/01/record-heat-europe-asia-climate/Potential for historically unprecedented Australian droughts from natural variability and climate change
Using simulations of Australian precipitation over the full past millennium (850–2000), we characterise the nature of multi-year meteorological droughts across Australia and include a particular focus on the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB), the largest agricultural region in Australia ... droughts to last longer in southwestern and eastern Australia (including the MDB) in the 20th century, compared with the pre-industrial period, suggests an emerging anthropogenic influence, consistent with projected rainfall changes in these regions ... simulations of droughts over the last millennium suggest that future droughts across Australia could be much longer than what was experienced in the 20th century, even without any human influence. With the addition of anthropogenic climate change, which favours drought conditions across much of southern Australia due to reduced cool-season rainfall, it is likely that future droughts in Australia will exceed recent historical experience.
https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/28/1383/2024/Zimbabwean president declares state of disaster due to drought
President Emmerson Mnangagwa has said the country needs $2bn in aid to help millions of people who are going hungry. The severe dry spell is wreaking havoc across southern Africa. Due to poor rains, more than 2.7 million [Zimbabweans] will not have enough food to put on the table this year, he warned. This season’s grain harvest was expected to bring in just over half of the cereals needed to feed the nation, he said. In southern Africa, Zimbabwe is the third country to declare drought a national disaster after Malawi and Zambia ... Rainfall in January and February was the lowest in 40 years, according to the UN.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/03/zimbabwean-president-declares-state-of-disaster-due-to-droughtCopernicus online portal offers terrifying view of climate emergency
Looking at the mass of information, there is only one conclusion: we are running out of time
As well as all the past data, it predicts where the climate is going [and] can call up the region where you live, so it is specific to what is happening to you and your family – and all the more disturbing for that. A separate part called Climate Pulse intended particularly for journalists is easier to operate. The refreshing bit is that the maps, charts and timelines from 1850 to the present day on the main atlas are entirely factual measurements, so there can be no argument on the trends. It then follows those trends into the likely scenarios for the next few years. Examining current temperature increases, it seemed to this observer that scientists have been underestimating for some time how quickly the situation is deteriorating.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2024/mar/29/copernicus-online-portal-offers-terrifying-view-climate-emergency
Full Atlas https://atlas.climate.copernicus.eu/atlas
Climate Pulse https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu/NOAA gets dire warning about solar geoengineering
A U.S. company or citizen with plans to inject aerosols into the atmosphere is [only] required to fill out a one-page form with the Commerce Department 10 days before they do so, thanks to a law from the 1970s that requires reporting of efforts to modify the weather. That’s not enough, say academics and researchers ... “There’s no governance on the international level, national governance, there’s no state governance, there’s nothing” ... Scientists know that aerosol particles can cool the Earth’s surface because they temporarily reflect sunlight. But widespread questions remain about the scientific and geopolitical implications of injecting aerosols into the upper atmosphere to modify the climate. Geoengineering also doesn’t address other harms associated with producing and burning fossil fuels, such as local pollution and ocean acidification. And if a country or company were to implement a major geoengineering scheme, it would have to continue until carbon concentrations in the atmosphere fell to a safe level or risk triggering a catastrophic spike in global warming — a risk known as termination shock ... Harvard University announced last week that it ended a solar radiation modification research project after years of setbacks and opposition from critics. But the idea still has plenty of interest — and experts say it’s gaining in traction as the world appears on pace to exceed its climate targets.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/29/noaa-warning-solar-geoengineering-climate-00148573/California dominates U.S. emissions of the pesticide and potent greenhouse gas sulfuryl fluoride
Sulfuryl fluoride (SO2F2) is a synthetic pesticide [whose] rising emissions are a concern since SO2F2 has a relatively long atmospheric lifetime and a high global warming potential ... we provide an atmospheric measurement-based estimate of U.S. SO2F2 emissions [and] find that California has the largest SO2F2 emissions among all U.S. states, with the highest emissions from southern coastal California (Los Angeles, Orange, and San Diego counties) ... emissions of SO2F2 from California are equal to 5.5–12% of global SO2F2 emissions.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01294-xIndia hydropower output records steepest fall in nearly four decades
Erratic rainfall forced further dependence on coal-fired power amid higher demand
The 16.3% drop in generation from the country's biggest clean energy source coincided with the share of renewables in power generation sliding for the first time since Prime Minister Narendra Modi made commitments to boost solar and wind capacity at the United Nations climate talks at Paris in 2015 ... India is the world's third-largest greenhouse gas emitter, and the government often points to lower per-capita emissions compared to developed nations to defend rising coal use. A five-year low in reservoir levels means hydro output will likely remain low during the hottest months of April-June.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/power/india-hydropower-output-records-steepest-fall-in-nearly-four-decades/articleshow/108936440.cmsInsurance price hikes alone aren’t enough to offset rising natural catastrophe losses, global reinsurer says
Finance professionals lamenting the ever-increasing costs of insuring their commercial property portfolios likely won’t be surprised by the latest research from global reinsurer Swiss Re, which reported global insured losses from last year’s natural catastrophes (Nat Cat) totaled $108 billion, exceeding the $100 billion mark for the fourth year in a row. Combating these rising losses will require premium increases, risk management, and broader societal efforts, according to Swiss Re experts. “As weather hazards intensify due to climate change, risk assessment and insurance premiums need to keep up with the fast-evolving risk landscape,” Moses Ojeisekhoba, Swiss Re’s CEO of global clients and solutions, said in a statement. “Looking ahead, we must focus on reducing the loss potential ... not just to mitigate climate risks, but to adapt to a world of more intense weather.”
https://www.cfobrew.com/stories/2024/03/27/insurance-price-hikes-alone-aren-t-enough-to-offset-rising-natural-catastrophe-losses-global-reinsurer-says/
reporting on a study at https://www.swissre.com/institute/research/sigma-research/sigma-2024-01.htmlThe home insurance market is crumbling
As climate change increases the frequency and severity of extreme weather, insurers are raising their premiums, or pulling out altogether
There were a record 28 weather and climate disasters with losses totaling over $1 billion last year in America, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. By comparison, between 1980 and 2023, the typical annual average for these events was 8.5 ... The main drivers are the higher costs insurers face, including from more severe storms; higher replacement costs; and re-insurance, the type of insurance used by insurers to limit their risks. These are passed on to consumers. So even if a homeowner doesn’t live in a high-risk area, that owner is likely paying a higher premium to cover people in the riskiest places [and] in some places most exposed to climate change, insurers have stopped issuing policies ... Homeowners who have a mortgage are not able to go without homeowners insurance as their mortgage servicer will require an escrow account for insurance. [But] 6 million homeowners chose to forgo homeowners insurance, according to a report from the Consumer Federation of America. That’s about 7.4% of all homeowners in the country, and amounts to about $1.6 trillion of unprotected value. CFA warned that the problem of uninsured homes is likely to get worse in coming years.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/29/economy/home-insurance-prices-climate-change/index.htmlNew satellite images show Northern California’s kelp forest almost gone
The kelp forest on the Sonoma and Mendocino coast has declined by an average of 95% since 2013. The research shows the unprecedented destruction was related to unusual ocean warming and that the kelp forest likely won’t recover any time soon ... The two warm water events that helped cause the kelp forest’s decline include an El Niño and what was known as warm water “blob” that together lasted from 2014 to 2016. Around the same time, a wasting disease struck the sunflower sea star population, leaving the purple urchin without a predator. Those urchins quickly took over, eating the remaining kelp ... water temperatures in the North Coast have returned to normal, McPherson said, and yet the bull kelp hasn’t recovered. It normally returns each spring. Bull kelp growth depends on cold upwellings in spring that bring nutrients to the surface, and those are reduced when water temperatures rise.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/local/environment/article/New-satellite-images-show-Northern-California-s-16001922.php
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s42003-021-01827-6Antarctic Sea Ice Near Historic Lows; Arctic Ice Continues Decline; Antarctic Sea Ice Near Historic Lows; Arctic Ice Continues Decline
Sea ice at both the top and bottom of the planet continued its decline in 2024. In the waters around Antarctica, ice coverage shrank to near-historic lows for the third year in a row. The recurring loss hints at a long-term shift in conditions in the Southern Ocean, likely resulting from global climate change, according to scientists at NASA and the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Meanwhile, the 46-year trend of shrinking and thinning ice in the Arctic Ocean shows no sign of reversing. “In 2016, we saw what some people are calling a regime shift,” said sea ice scientist Walt Meier of the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado, Boulder. “The Antarctic sea ice coverage dropped and has largely remained lower than normal. Over the past seven years, we’ve had three record lows.” Meanwhile, at the other end of the planet, the maximum winter ice coverage in the Arctic Ocean is consistent with an ongoing 46-year decline. “It’s only a matter of time. After six, seven, eight years, it’s starting to look like maybe it’s happening.”
https://www.nasa.gov/earth/antarctic-sea-ice-near-historic-lows-arctic-ice-continues-decline/Europe’s Warmer Weather to Continue in April After Winter Highs
The concluding winter has been exceptionally mild across Europe, reducing demand for heating and pushing power and natural gas prices down. Global temperatures continue setting new highs, with February being the ninth straight month to register as the warmest on record, according to Europe’s Earth observation agency Copernicus ... water content of mountain snowpack was down 40% as of March 5 from a year earlier in southern Alberta's St. Mary River basin. The nearby Waterton basin was down 27%, according to provincial and federal government data. Some 70% of Canada is abnormally dry or in drought, according to the government
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-28/europe-s-warmer-weather-to-continue-in-april-after-winter-highsHeat Waves Are Moving Slower and Staying Longer, Study Finds
As climate change warms the planet, heat waves are increasingly moving sluggishly and lasting longer, according to a study published on Friday. Each decade between 1979 and 2020, the rate at which heat waves travel, pushed along by air circulation, slowed by about 5 miles per day, the study found. Heat waves also now last about four days longer on average ... The longer heat waves stick around in one place, the longer people are exposed to life-threatening temperatures. As workers slow down during extreme heat, so does economic productivity. Heat waves also dry out soil and vegetation, harming crops and raising the risk of wildfires. These changes to heat wave behavior have been more noticeable since the late 1990s, Dr. Zhang said. The researchers also found that heat waves are becoming more frequent, to an average of 98 per year between 2016 and 2020, from 75 per year between 1979 and 1983.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/29/climate/heat-waves-longer-slower.html
reporting on a study at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adl1598The world is warming faster than scientists expected
Jim Skea, the chair of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, said last year’s spike in temperatures was “quicker than we all anticipated” ... Writing in the journal Nature, [Gavin Schmidt, director of Nasa’s Goddard Institute] warned that the data could imply that a warming planet was already “fundamentally altering how the climate system operates” ... But a full explanation remains elusive, which underlines a compelling echo of history. Schmidt’s position at Nasa was once held by another scientist, James Hansen, whose 1988 testimony to the US Congress alerted the world that global warming had begun. The world did not entirely ignore Hansen’s warnings in the 36 years that followed, but nor did it take them anywhere near seriously enough. Oil company bosses may prefer to preach a message of business as usual. But neither they nor anyone else can afford once again to downplay what science is showing us about a climate threat that is now moving into uncharted territory.
https://www.ft.com/content/6f858196-0a9c-4f0f-9720-a0a81849a998One Of The World’s Most Important Ocean Currents Really Is Slowing Down
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has slowed substantially since the mid-90s, a new study reveals ... AMOC is primarily the result of salty water left behind when sea ice forms sinking to the depths, leaving space for tropical waters to flow in. Many climate models suggest that as melting ice from Greenland floods the North Atlantic with cold but very fresh water, it will sit above more salty water instead of sinking. Without an impulse to the depths, water will stop moving south in the deep ocean ... Since [1994] AMOC has slowed. "If AMOC slows down, the heat exchange will be reduced, which in turn will affect the climate, causing hot areas to get hotter and cold areas to get colder," said Mishonov in a statement. Most climatic changes have at least some beneficiaries, but this one is likely to be bad for almost everyone affected.
https://www.iflscience.com/one-of-the-worlds-most-important-ocean-currents-really-is-slowing-down-73554
reporting on a study at https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2024.1345426/fullA Harsh Mongolian Winter Leaves Millions of Livestock Dead
An unusually brutal winter in Mongolia has left much of the country’s grazing land frozen and snow-covered, starving or freezing millions of animals and upending thousands of lives in a country where a third of the population depends on herding and agriculture ... about 60 million animals face starvation until new grass sprouts in May, imperiling the future of herding families ... the rising frequency of extreme weather events has made herders’ lives more precarious. Droughts, dust storms, heavy rainfall and flooding have all tripled in the past decade, as temperatures in Mongolia rise twice as fast as the global average.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/29/world/asia/mongolia-winter-animals-dead.htmlThe world’s broken market for medicines
Ninety-one per cent of drugs prescribed in the US and 70 per cent in Europe are generics [but] manufacturing issues, weak supply chains and low pricing have combined to create a “broken market” for these medicines ... “The whole system has a just-in-time principle and any rupture in that causes a downstream shortage,” says Rob Moss, a hospital pharmacy consultant in Utrecht, the Netherlands ... drugs manufacturing involves making active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) [which are] converted into finished dosages during the second stage of manufacturing ... For both manufacturing stages, the world relies heavily on Indian and Chinese factories [and] Indian and Chinese manufacturers own over half of the quality certificates needed for drug APIs to be used in Europe ... Like globalised supply chains for other goods, this adds an element of uncertainty. “The more you are dependent on a producer far away, the more vulnerable you are to facing medicine shortages" ... policymakers are discussing the geopolitical risks of Chinese and Indian supply. A goal of an upcoming Critical Medicines Act from the European Union is to reshore some supply and encourage drug stockpiling. Currently, there is little incentive for manufacturers not to source from cheap factories in Asia using just-in-time supply mechanisms. “It has surprised me that there is a lot of talk of “strategic autonomy” around chips and all sorts of digital technologies [in Europe] but not so much around drugs,” says Diederik Stadig, a healthcare economist at Dutch bank ING [but it's] doubtful that this will happen any time soon.
https://www.ft.com/content/6143300d-d11a-4b2f-898c-87c5dd0ff6ceClimate Change Ignites Global Infectious Disease Alarm
A team of infectious diseases experts called for more awareness and preparedness in the medical field to deal with the impact of climate change on the spread of diseases. Their article, published on March 20 in JAMA raises the alarm about the emergence and spread of harmful pathogens ... Changing rain patterns are expanding vectors’ range and their active periods. Shorter, warmer winters and longer summers are also linked to more vector-borne diseases. For example, diseases caused by ticks (like babesiosis and Lyme disease) are now occurring in the winter too. They’re also being found in regions farther west and north than in the past ... Another concern is malaria. The mosquitos that transmit the disease are expanding northward, a climate-induced change.
https://scitechdaily.com/climate-change-ignites-global-infectious-disease-alarm
reporting on a study at https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2816446Rampant Wildfires Are Threatening a Collapse of the Amazon Rainforest
Real-time satellite monitoring shows that so far in 2024, more than 10,000 wildfires have ripped across 11,000 square kilometers of the Amazon, across multiple countries. Never have this many fires burned so much of the forest this early in the year. Scientists worry this is pushing the region closer and closer to a tipping point, where widespread degradation and repeated burning of the forest will become unstoppable ... dry season temperatures are, on average, 2 degrees higher than they were 40 years ago ... patterns of rainfall have also changed [and] the Amazon has become “more flammable” as a result. A study found that the drought that has afflicted the Amazon Basin since the middle of last year is primarily being driven by climate change.
https://www.wired.com/story/rampant-wildfires-collapse-amazon-rainforest/The heat index — how hot it feels — is rising faster than temperature
The temperature alone does not accurately reflect the heat stress people feel. Even the heat index itself, which takes into account the relative humidity and thus the capacity to cool off by sweating, gives a conservative estimate of heat stress ... This leads people to underestimate their chances of suffering hyperthermia on the hottest days and of their chances of dying ... global warming is affecting the interplay between humidity and temperature [b ecause] in the past, relative humidity typically dropped when the temperature increased, allowing the body to sweat more and thus feel more comfortable. But with climate change, the relative humidity remains about constant as the temperature increases, which reduces the effectiveness of sweating to cool the body. While the current study didn't try to predict when [the environment] might generate a heat index high enough to make everyone hyperthermic, "we can see that there are times when people are getting pushed in that direction," he said. "It's not terribly far off."
https://news.berkeley.edu/2024/03/19/the-heat-index-how-hot-it-feels-is-rising-faster-than-temperature
reporting on a study at https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad3144Climate Change Is Causing Trees To Struggle To “Breathe”
Trees are struggling to sequester heat-trapping carbon dioxide (CO2) in warmer, drier climates, meaning that they may no longer serve as a solution for offsetting humanity’s carbon footprint as the planet continues to warm, according to a new study ... under stressful conditions, trees release CO2 back to the atmosphere, a process called photorespiration. [This study] demonstrated that the rate of photorespiration is up to two times higher in warmer climates, especially when water is limited. They found the threshold for this response in subtropical climates begins to be crossed when average daytime temperatures exceed roughly 68 degrees Fahrenheit and worsen as temperatures rise further. The results complicate a widespread belief about the role of plants in helping to draw down, or use, carbon from the atmosphere.
https://scitechdaily.com/climate-change-is-causing-trees-to-struggle-to-breathe/
reporting on a study at https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2306736120Scotland’s 2030 climate goals are no longer credible
The Climate Change Committee [a UK government body] no longer believes that the Scottish Government will meet its statutory 2030 goal to reduce emissions by 75%. There is no comprehensive strategy for Scotland to decarbonise ... eighth time in the past 12 years that they have missed a target. “Scotland has laudable ambitions to decarbonise, but it isn’t enough to set a target; the Government must act. There are risks in all reviewed areas.” [said] Professor Piers Forster, interim Chair of the Climate Change Committee.
https://www.theccc.org.uk/2024/03/20/scotlands-2030-climate-goals-are-no-longer-credible/
reporting on a study at https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Progress-in-reducing-emissions-in-Scotland-2023-Report-to-Parliament.pdfUN weather agency issues ‘red alert’ on climate change after record heat, ice-melt increases in 2023
The World Meteorological Organization said there is a “high probability” that 2024 will be another record-hot year ... “What worries me the most is that the planet is now in a meltdown phase — literally and figuratively given the warming and mass loss from our polar ice sheets,” said Jonathan Overpeck, dean of the University of Michigan School for Environment and Sustainability, who wasn’t involved in the report. [Yet] “each year the climate story gets worse; each year WMO officials and others proclaim that the latest report is a wake-up call to decision makers,” said University of Victoria climate scientist Andrew Weaver, a former British Columbia lawmaker. “Yet each year, once the 24-hour news cycle is over, far too many of our elected ‘leaders’ return to political grandstanding, partisan bickering and advancing policies with demonstrable short-term outcomes,” he said. “More often than not everything else ends up taking precedence over the advancement of climate policy. And so, nothing gets done.”
https://apnews.com/article/wmo-un-climate-global-change-report-warming-2154285aabb0cf83dc9ca4015ea0016d
see also https://wmo.int/media/news/climate-change-indicators-reached-record-levels-2023-wmo
reporting on a study at https://wmo.int/publication-series/state-of-global-climate-2023Hypoxia is widespread and increasing in the ocean off the Pacific Northwest coast, study shows
Low oxygen conditions that pose a significant threat to marine life are widespread and increasing in coastal Pacific Northwest ocean waters as the climate warms ... "This confirms that these conditions are occurring across Pacific Northwest coastal waters ... with climate change, we are headed in a direction where this may be the norm" ... The new study, published recently in Scientific Reports, is based on data collected by an unprecedented number of research vessels and autonomous underwater gliders.
https://phys.org/news/2024-03-hypoxia-widespread-ocean-pacific-northwest.html
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-54476-0State Farm won’t renew 72,000 insurance policies in California, worsening the state’s insurance crisis
State Farm’s decision not to renew policies comes as thousands of Californians are finding it extremely difficult to insure their homes and commercial properties as companies increase rates, limit coverage or stop offering policies in areas increasingly susceptible to natural disasters ... State Farm reported a net loss of $6.3 billion in 2023 compared to a net loss of $6.7 billion in 2022. The lack of options has prompted thousands of Californians to purchase insurance from the [state sponsored] FAIR Plan as a last resort [but] the enrollment surge is putting a financial strain on the state insurer as it faces a potential loss of $311 billion, up from $50 billion in 2018 ... “We’re one bad fire season away from complete insolvency” said Assemblymember Jim Wood.
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-03-23/state-farm-wont-renew-72-000-insurance-policies-in-california-worsening-the-states-insurance-crisisNations Are Undercounting Emissions, Putting UN Goals at Risk
The national inventories of emissions supplied to the United Nations climate convention (UNFCCC) by most countries are anything but reliable, according to a growing body of research. The data supplied to the UNFCCC, and published on its website, are typically out of date, inconsistent, and incomplete ... The data from large emitters is as much open to questions as that from smaller and less industrialised nations. In China, the uncertainties around its carbon dioxide emissions from burning coal are larger than the total emissions of many major industrial countries. And companies preparing data for its carbon-trading system have been accused of widespread data fraud ... As a result, say analysts, the world is flying blind, unable either to verify national compliance with emissions targets or figure out how much atmospheric “room” countries have left for emissions before exceeding agreed warming thresholds ... “The existing patchwork of greenhouse-gas inventories is ... rife with measurement errors, inconsistent classification and gaps in accountability.”
https://e360.yale.edu/features/undercounted-emissions-un-climate-change
reporting on a study at https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4436504How plastic makers used recycling as a fig leaf
The plastics industry has worked for decades to convince people and policymakers that recycling would keep waste out of landfills and the environment. Yet from the early days of recycling, plastic makers, including oil and gas companies, knew that it wasn't a viable solution to deal with increasing amounts of waste ... making new plastic is relatively cheap. But recycling generally costs as much as or more than the material is worth, a director of environmental solutions at B.F. Goodrich explained at [an] industry meeting in 1992. The "basic issue," he said, "is economics." But the industry appears to have championed recycling mainly for its public relations value, rather than as a tool for avoiding environmental damage, the documents suggest. "We are committed to the activities, but not committed to the results," a vice president at Exxon Chemical said during a meeting in 1994 with staff for the American Plastics Council, a trade group ... Former industry officials have said the goal was to avoid regulations and ensure that demand for plastics, which are made from fossil fuels, kept growing. Despite years of recycling campaigns, less than 10% of plastic waste gets recycled globally, and the amount of plastic waste that's dumped in the environment continues to soar.
https://www.npr.org/2024/02/15/1231690415/plastic-recycling-waste-oil-fossil-fuels-climate-change
reporting on a study at https://climateintegrity.org/plastics-fraudAre we stressing the wrong metrics for climate change?
Experts say rising temperatures due to burning fossil fuels only explains part of the ways we're cooking our planet"Climate change is clearly well underway and represents a major, even existential threat that is not being adequately addressed" [but] when it comes to fixing climate change, humanity is missing a key point, one that [Dr. Kevin Trenberth, one of the world's foremost authorities on climate change] has repeatedly emphasized throughout his career: Warming and heating are not the same thing [and] if our species does not soon fully grasp both this fact and its implications, the consequences will be disastrous. It all comes down to a statistic known as EEI, or Earth Energy Imbalance, that measures the difference between the solar energy that reaches Earth and the amount which returns to space. [Even] if humanity reaches net zero in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, Trenberth pointed out, the planet will still be be much hotter than our recent past and present ... "At that point, there is no longer this close relationship between heating and temperature," Trenberth observed. "The temperature maybe stalls, doesn't go up anymore or not quite so much," but other issues caused by overheating such as problems with the water cycle will persist. Those problems will [still] lead to extreme weather events impacting millions of people.
https://www.salon.com/2024/03/08/are-we-stressing-the-metrics-for-climate-change/
reporting on a study at https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/10.1142/S2972312424750018The Oceans We Knew Are Already Gone
The alarming trend stretches around the world: 41 percent of the global ocean experienced heat waves in January. The temperatures are also part of a decades-long hot streak in the oceans. “What we used to consider extreme is no longer an extreme today,” [said] Dillon Amaya, a research scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ... many other changes will unfold alongside those hot ocean temperatures: stronger hurricanes, rising sea levels, unmanageable conditions for marine life. Our seas, in other words, will be altered within decades ... “the changes we’ve seen are more pronounced than any we had projected,” Fiamma Straneo, a climate professor at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, told me. If global warming reaches and stays in the range of 2 to 3 degrees Celsius above preindustrial norms, the West Antarctic ice sheet could “be lost almost completely and irreversibly” ... we can be confident that “we’ll be stuck with changed oceans for thousands of years,” Turner said ... if emissions decrease in the future, the oceans might return to their preindustrial state after that great burial. But that’s so far away, Turner said, that for us, the effects of climate change will be “effectively permanent.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2024/03/ocean-heat-wave-cosmic-choice/677672/Why Is the Sea So Hot?
A startling rise in sea-surface temperatures suggests that we may not understand how fast the climate is changing.
At the beginning of March [2023], sea-surface temperatures began to rise. By April, they’d set a new record: the average temperature at the surface of the world’s oceans, excluding those at the poles, was just a shade under seventy degrees ... temperatures remained abnormally high through the Southern Hemisphere’s autumn and beyond, breaking the monthly records ... Since the start of 2024, sea-surface temperatures have continued to climb; in February, they set yet another record ... does this mean that projections of warming, already decidedly grim, are underestimating the dangers? “It’s not like we’re breaking records by a little bit now and then,” Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami, said. “It’s like the whole climate just fast-forwarded by fifty or a hundred years. That’s how strange this looks.” It’s estimated that in 2023 the heat content in the upper two thousand metres of the oceans increased by at least nine zettajoules. For comparison, the world’s annual energy consumption amounts to about 0.6 zettajoules ... “I think the real test will be what happens in the next twelve months,” Wijffels said. “If temperatures remain very high, then I would say more people in the community will be really alarmed and say ‘O.K., this is outside of what we can explain.’” In 2023, which was by far the warmest year on record on land, as well as in the oceans, many countries experienced record-breaking heat waves or record-breaking wildfires or record-breaking rainstorms or some combination of these. If the climate projections are accurate, then the year was a preview of things to come, which is scary enough. But, if the projections are missing something, that’s potentially even more terrifying.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/why-is-the-sea-so-hotFatal heat wave strikes unspoiled swath of Great Barrier Reef
Seven months after Florida corals faced what scientists called their worst bleaching event ever, a similar emergency grips the Great Barrier Reef [which] appears likely to be the worst on record in southern sections of the 1,400-mile-long reef, and could bring the first significant coral fatalities observed there. In other sections, what is the fifth major bleaching event in nine years could serve as a test of how resilient the world wonder will be going forward ... How those events compare with this latest one will become clear in coming months as scientists survey the famous formation of some 2,900 coral reefs spread across an area the size of Italy. “This is an anxious time as we continue to collect information,” Wachenfeld said [and] there is the likelihood that severe bleaching events will become more common as the planet warms.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/03/13/great-barrier-reef-coral-bleaching/Methane emissions from energy sector rose in 2023 despite climate pledges
Methane emissions from the energy sector remained near a record high in 2023 despite commitments from the sector to plug leaking infrastructure in a bid to combat climate change, a report by the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday ... Large methane plumes from leaky fossil fuel infrastructure also jumped by 50% in 2023 compared with 2022, the IEA report said. One super-emitting event, detected by satellites, was a well blowout in Kazakhstan that lasted more than 200 days ... Methane emissions have held around 130 million metric tons level since 2019, the record high year, despite a commitment made by more than 150 countries since 2021 to reduce global methane emissions by at least 30% from 2020 levels by the end of this decade.
https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/methane-emissions-energy-sector-near-record-high-2023-iea-says-2024-03-13
reporting on a study at https://www.iea.org/reports/global-methane-tracker-2024Rains Are Scarce in the Amazon. Instead, Megafires Are Raging.
By this time of the year, rain should be drenching large swaths of the Amazon rainforest. Instead, a punishing drought has kept the rains at bay, creating dry conditions for fires that have engulfed hundreds of square miles of the rainforest that do not usually burn ... A record number of fires so far this year in the Amazon has also raised questions about what may be in store for the world’s biggest tropical rainforest when the dry season starts in June in the far larger southern part of the jungle. The fires in the Amazon, which reaches across nine South American nations, are the result of an extreme drought fueled by climate change, experts said ... If deforestation, fires and climate change continue to worsen, large stretches of the forest could transform into grasslands or weakened ecosystems [which] would trigger a collapse that could send up to 20 years’ worth of global carbon emissions into the atmosphere, an enormous blow to the struggle to contain climate change. Once this tipping point is crossed, “it may be useless to try to do something,” said Bernardo Flores, who studies the resilience of ecosystems at the Federal University of Santa Catarina in Brazil ... more devastating fires could erupt if the parched soil does not receive enough rainfall in the crucial wetter months ahead, Dr. Alencar said. “The question is whether the forest can recover before the dry season, whether the Amazon can recharge its batteries,” she said. “Now, it all depends on the rains.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/09/climate/amazon-rainforest-fires.htmlIndia's water problems set to get worse as the world warms
Winter storms that provide crucial snow and rainfall to northern India are arriving significantly later in the year ... "Some areas of Kashmir saw no snow at all in December or January. This is a serious concern for the 750 million people in the Indus and upper Ganges basins who rely on these winter snows for water supplies" ... The research team attributes this seasonal shift to changes in the subtropical jet stream, a high-altitude air current that steers western disturbances. The rapid warming of the Tibetan Plateau - which is a long stretch of level high ground at the intersection of Central, South, and East Asia - is creating a larger temperature contrast with surrounding areas, fueling a stronger jet stream that powers more frequent and intense storms. At the same time, global warming is weakening the temperature difference between the equator and poles that normally draws the jet stream northward in summer. As a result, the jet stream is increasingly lingering at southerly latitudes later into spring and summer, allowing more storms to strike North India after the winter snow season. Arriving in the pre-monsoon heat, these increasingly frequent late-season storms unleash heavy rainfall instead of snow, raising risks of devastating flooding. Meanwhile, winter snowfall is declining as the region warms, threatening spring water supplies.
https://www.reading.ac.uk/news/2024/Research-News/Indias-water-problems-set-to-get-worse-as-the-world-warms
reporting on a study at https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/345/2024/Water crisis shakes India’s Silicon Valley
With long queues at public taps and fewer showers, Bengaluru's residents reel under a water shortage
In India's Bengaluru city (formerly Bangalore), thousands of people have been chasing tankers, taking fewer showers and sometimes missing work to store enough water to get through the day. The southern metropolis - once called a pensioners' paradise because of its cool weather and lush gardens - is now more famous as India's info-tech hub where companies like Infosys, Wipro and hundreds of start-ups have plush offices. But years of rapid, often unplanned, expansion have taken a toll, and the city now appears bursting at its seams. "It is often said that traffic is the biggest problem in Bengaluru but actually water is the larger issue," says civic activist Srinivas Alavilli. Bengaluru's 15 million people need at least two billion litres of water every day [but] a weak monsoon last year depleted groundwater levels, which means new borewells have to be dug deeper to find water. This has led to a daily shortfall of 200 million litres in water supply.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-68509409NOAA: Annual 2023 Global Climate Report
2023 was the warmest year since global records began in 1850 ... The 10 warmest years in the 174-year record have all occurred during the last decade (2014–2023) ... 2005, which was the first year to set a new global temperature record in the 21st century, is now the 12th-warmest year on record [and] 2010, which had surpassed 2005 at the time, now ranks as the 11th-warmest year on record ... [More than] 90% of excess heat in the Earth's system is absorbed by the ocean [and] annual global ocean heat content (OHC) for 2023 for the upper 2000 meters was record high, surpassing the previous record set in 2021. The five highest OHC have all occurred in the last five years (2019–2023).
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202313Europe is not prepared for rapidly growing climate risks
Europe is the fastest warming continent in the world, and climate risks are threatening its energy and food security, ecosystems, infrastructure, water resources, financial stability, and people’s health .... Extreme heat, drought, wildfires, and flooding, as experienced in recent years, will worsen in Europe even under optimistic global warming scenarios ... Europe’s policies and adaptation actions are not keeping pace with the rapidly growing risks ... Southern Europe is particularly at risk from wildfires and impacts of heat and water scarcity on agricultural production, outdoor work, and human health. Flooding, erosion and saltwater intrusion threaten Europe’s low-lying coastal regions, including many densely populated cities.
https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/newsroom/news/europe-is-not-prepared-for
see also https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/mar/10/europe-unprepared-for-climate-risks-eea-report
reporting on a study at https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/european-climate-risk-assessmentHeat record broken for ninth consecutive month
Last month was the planet’s warmest February on record and the ninth consecutive month of record-breaking temperatures, according to data released Thursday. February was more than 1.7 degrees Celsius warmer than an average February in preindustrial times, reported Copernicus, the European Union’s climate monitoring service.
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4516011-heat-record-broken-ninth-straight-month-februaryThis winter was warmest in Canadian records by a huge margin
This past winter was the warmest in the country's records, and by a stunning margin, according to Environment Canada data shared by a senior climatologist. The average temperature for December, January and February was more than five degrees warmer than historic norms, preliminary figures show, an average all the more remarkable because it combines weather station data from places as distant as Nunavut, Ontario and P.E.I. That anomaly is so extreme, and so far above the previous record, that seeing it was a "shock" to David Phillips, senior climatologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada, he said ... The previous warmest winter in that more than three quarters of a century was in 2009-2010, a season 4.1 degrees above the historic norm. This past winter, however, was 5.2 degrees above the norm, breaking the old record by more than a full degree -- "as much of a difference as you'd ever find in climate," Phillips said, adding that a tenth of a degree is usually considered significant.
https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/these-are-numbers-are-just-wow-this-winter-was-warmest-in-canadian-records-by-a/article_12cbce98-dd7e-11ee-a1da-7b7004389e4f.htmlThe US had its warmest winter on record
Season capped off by the third-warmest February recorded The average temperature across the contiguous U.S. last month was 41.1 degrees F, 7.2 degrees F above the 20th-century average ... Persistent winter warmth resulted in a steady decrease in ice coverage across the Great Lakes, which reached a historic low of 2.7% on February 11 — the lowest amount of ice coverage on record during mid-February.
https://www.noaa.gov/news/us-had-its-warmest-winter-on-recordThe Arctic Ocean could be ‘ice-free’ within the decade, researchers warn
New research has found that Arctic Ocean sea ice is shrinking even faster than previously thought [and ice-free summer conditions] could occur before the end of the decade or sometime in the 2030s — as many as 10 years earlier than previous projections, according to a study published Tuesday in the journal Nature Reviews Earth and Environment ... “It’s no longer a remote possibility that might happen at some point,” said Alexandra Jahn, the study’s lead author and an associate professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder. “It occurs under all the emission scenarios” ... the decline of Arctic sea ice has been well documented since at least 1979 [said] Walter Meier, a senior researcher with the National Snow and Ice Data Center, who was not involved with the study. Meier said the study’s assessments are plausible [and] “given the emission scenarios that we’re following, it’s really a matter of when, not if” ... Jahn said some research has found there is still a 10% to 20% possibility of avoiding an ice-free Arctic altogether if the global temperature stays below 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming. “If we were to stop all emissions tomorrow — which physically isn’t possible, but if we could — then we could still avoid it,” Jahn said. “It’s not a guarantee, but there’s a possibility.” But even that possibility appears to be slipping away. In January, the global average temperature measured 1.66 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial reference period.
https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2024-03-05/the-arctic-ocean-could-be-ice-free-within-a-decade
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-023-00515-9New analysis shows that the global freshwater cycle has shifted far beyond pre-industrial conditions
For the past century, humans have been pushing the Earth's freshwater system far beyond the stable conditions that prevailed before industrialization. This is the first time that global water cycle change has been assessed over such a long timescale with an appropriate reference baseline. The findings, published in Nature Water, show that human pressures, such as dam construction, large-scale irrigation and global warming, have altered freshwater resources to such an extent that their capacity to regulate vital ecological and climatic processes is at risk ... "our immediate priority should be to decrease human-driven pressures on freshwater systems, which are vital to life on Earth," says Aalto's Associate Professor Matti Kummu, senior author of the study.
https://phys.org/news/2024-03-analysis-global-freshwater-shifted-pre.html
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s44221-024-00208-7Meltwater in the north Atlantic can lead to European summer heat waves, study finds
Scientists from the [UK] National Oceanography Centre (NOC) have discovered that increased meltwater in the North Atlantic can trigger a chain of events leading to hotter and drier European summers. The paper [proposes] that European summer weather is predictable months to years in advance, due to higher levels of freshwater in the North Atlantic ... "Greenland experienced an unusually warm summer, leading to increased freshwater input into the North Atlantic. Based on the identified chain of events, we expect that the ocean-atmosphere conditions will be favorable for an unusually warm and dry summer over southern Europe this year" ... the study suggests that European heat waves and droughts will become more intense in the future. The warming over Europe after strong freshwater releases in the North Atlantic will add to the warming already happening because of climate change, causing weather patterns to shift.
https://phys.org/news/2024-02-meltwater-north-atlantic-european-summer.html
reporting on a study at https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/109/2024/Amazon savannization and climate change are projected to increase dry season length and temperature extremes over Brazil
The combined effects of land use change and global warming resulted in a mean annual rainfall reduction of 44% and a dry season length increase of 69%, when averaged over the Amazon basin [and] resulted in maximum daily temperature anomalies, reaching values of up to 14 °C above the current climatic conditions over the Amazon. Also, as a consequence of both climate drivers, both soil moisture and surface runoff decrease over most of the country ... the fight to keep taps running is one that will sweep southern Europe as fossil fuel pollution heats it up and dries parts of it out. The western coasts of the Mediterranean, in particular, will be hit by increased evaporation, shorter rainy seasons and less mountain snow cover ... Catalonia offers a glimpse of that future.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-55176-5Church reemerges from reservoir as Spain faces droughts
Struck by a drought that has dried the reservoir to 1% of its capacity, the remains of the village have come back into view. Crumbling stone structures now sit on cracked soil among ashen plants. Catalonia, a rich region in the north-east of Spain, is in the grip of a drought that is killing its crops, choking its economy and restricting the lives of 6 million people who live under emergency measures.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/mar/02/it-makes-me-so-sad-church-reemerges-from-reservoir-as-spain-faces-droughtsClimate change is throwing the water cycle into chaos
In some places, the availability of water is becoming increasingly scarce, while in others, climate change is intensifying rainfall, floods and other extreme weather events. As the planet continues to warm, this cycle is expected to be increasingly stretched, warped and broken ... Years of overuse — in part because of rising temperatures and drought — are leading farmers to consume unsustainable amounts of stored groundwater and pushing some aquifers to the brink ... storms, likely intensified by climate change, relieved a drought and blanketed [California] in 2 to 3 times as much snow as usual. But all that precipitation made only a dent in the state’s overall groundwater deficit after seasons of drought, and groundwater levels remained lower than they were after a previous, four-year drought ended in 2016.
https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/climate-change-throwing-water-cycle-chaos-us-rcna137892Surprising methane discovery in Yukon glaciers: 'Much more widespread than we thought'
Researcher from the University of Copenhagen has discovered high concentrations of [methane] in meltwater from three Canadian mountain glaciers, where it was not thought to exist ... "We expected to find low values in the meltwater ... but the result was quite the opposite. We measured concentrations up to 250 times higher than those in our atmosphere," explains Sarah Elise Sapper of the University of Copenhagen's Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management ... Christiansen, the research article's co-author, believes that the finding demonstrates the possibility of methane being present beneath many of the world's glaciers, ones that have thus far been written off. "Sarah's findings change our basic understanding and send us back to the drawing board [because] the three sites Sarah measured were randomly selected due to the availability of a research station and helicopter, yet methane was found in all three."
https://phys.org/news/2024-02-methane-discovery-yukon-glaciers-widespread.htmlHistoric winter heat wave smashes records in central U.S., fuels tornadoes
The central United States has just witnessed what was probably its most significant February heat wave on record, after scores of records were not just broken, but demolished. Half a dozen states registered their highest February temperature on record, as did more than 130 cities and towns, including Minneapolis, Milwaukee, St. Louis and Detroit. Multiple locations also posted their highest temperatures ever observed during any of the winter months. The Weather Channel’s Jim Cantore described the spree of records as “just insane” ... The heat also fueled an outbreak of damaging tornadoes in the Midwest, including what was Michigan’s farthest-north tornado observed in February. At the same time, it contributed to massive wildfires that erupted in Texas and other parts of the Plains.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/02/28/record-heat-midwest-tornadoes-climate/Emergency atmospheric geoengineering wouldn’t save the oceans
Stratospheric aerosol injection is a commonly discussed geoengineering concept based on the idea that adding particles to the stratosphere could help cool the surface of the planet [but] it wouldn’t be enough to nudge “stubborn” ocean patterns such as Atlantic meridional overturning circulation [AMOC], which some research finds is already weakening. In that case, preexisting problems resulting from a warmed deep ocean, such as altered weather patterns, regional sea level rise and weakened currents, would remain in place ... Relying on geoengineering is “in a way, madness,” Pflüger said. “But the situation is already quite mad.”
https://news.agu.org/press-release/emergency-atmospheric-geoengineering-wouldnt-save-the-oceans/
reporting on a study at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GL106132Enhanced risk of record-breaking regional temperatures during the 2023–24 El Niño
The likelihood of global [temperature] exceeding historical records, calculated from July 2023 to June 2024, is estimated at 90%, contingent upon annual-mean sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific exceeding 0.6 °C. Regions particularly susceptible to recording record-high SAT include coastal and adjacent areas in Asia such as the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea, as well as Alaska, the Caribbean Sea, and the Amazon. This impending warmth heightens the risk of year-round marine heatwaves.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-52846-2Swiss Re: Economic losses set to increase due to climate change, with US and Philippines the hardest hit
Four weather perils – floods, tropical cyclones, winter storms in Europe and severe thunderstorms – today cause global estimated economic losses of USD 200 billion every year [and] climate change will have a larger impact on economic losses in the future ... Swiss Re Institute's new report "Changing climates: the heat is (still) on" analyses where hazards are likely to intensify and overlays it with its own estimates of economic losses resulting from the four major weather perils ... Philippines is most impacted by the four weather perils, while also being exposed to high probability of hazard intensification. The US is second-most exposed. At USD 97 billion (0.38% of GDP) as of today, it experiences the highest economic losses in absolute terms from weather events worldwide ... flood risk is projected to intensify globally.
https://www.swissre.com/press-release/Economic-losses-set-to-increase-due-to-climate-change-with-US-and-Philippines-the-hardest-hit-Swiss-Re-Institute-finds/3051a9b0-e379-4bcb-990f-3cc8236d55a1Map Shows 9 States Where Homeowners Are Losing Their Insurance
American National Group, an insurance company owned by Brookfield Asset Management Reinsurance Partners, plans to cease its homeowners insurance business in nine states ... part of plans to pull back in Arkansas, California, Colorado, Louisiana, Minnesota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota and Washington, according to a company official. "Several years of increased frequency and severity of weather events have caused an increased lack of profitability in this line of business." Major insurance firms like Allstate, Farmers and State Farm ceased providing homeowners insurance in certain states [such as California, Florida and South Carolina] due to similar reasons. "Climate adaptation ... will become very real, as more insurers scale back activities in even more regions affected by climate change."
https://www.newsweek.com/map-shows-9-states-where-homeowners-are-losing-their-insurance-1875252After a weird summer of floods and heatwaves, scientists explain why weather extremes are 'on steroids'
The word "unprecedented" is losing much of its power, as the world lurches from one crazy weather event to the next. In many ways the terms "climate change" and "global warming" don't do enough to describe what is happening to the world, as the burning of fossil fuels causes the earth's temperature to increase ... "The whole climate system is more violent, the pendulum swings wider than it used to. The weather is behaving more erratically" ... with more energy in the atmosphere, storms are becoming more intense. "When you have events like squall lines or cyclones, tornadoes, thunderstorms, they have more energy available to them," director of the Monash Energy Institute Roger Dargaville said. "So, they tend to be more intense and more extreme."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-28/global-warming-effect-on-extreme-weather-events/103471564South Korea’s fertility rate sinks to record low despite $270bn in incentives
South Korea’s demographic crisis has deepened with the release of data showing its birthrate – already the world’s lowest – fell to a new record low in 2023, despite billions of dollars in government schemes designed to persuade families to have more children. The average number of children a South Korean woman has during her lifetime fell to 0.72, from 0.78 in 2022 – a decline of nearly 8% ... Since 2006 the government has invested more than 360tn won ($270bn) in programmes to encourage couples to have more children, including cash subsidies, babysitting services and support for infertility treatment.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/28/south-korea-fertility-rate-2023-fall-record-low-incentivesBirths in Japan hit record low as government warns crisis at ‘critical state’
The number of babies born in Japan last year fell for an eighth straight year to a new low ... 5.1% decline from the previous year [and] the lowest number of births since Japan started compiling the statistics in 1899 ... Chief cabinet secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi told reporters Tuesday that the ongoing declining birthrate is at a “critical state ... The period over the next six years or so until 2030s, when the younger population will start declining rapidly, will be the last chance we may be able to reverse the trend” ... The number of births has been falling since 50 years ago, when it peaked at about 2.1 million. The decline to an annual number below 760,000 has happened faster than earlier projections.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/28/birth-rate-japan-record-low-2023-data-detailsLatest science shows endocrine disrupting chemicals in plastics, pesticides, and other sources pose health threats globally
Over the last fifty years such chemicals have cut worldwide fertility in half, among other health effects
The report, "Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals: Threats to Human Health" provides a comprehensive update on the state of the science around EDCs, with increasing evidence that this large group of toxic substances may be implicated in rising global health concerns [and] includes detailed analyses on exposure to EDCs from four sources: plastics, pesticides, consumer products (including children's products), and per-and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), a class of thousands of chemicals known or suspected to be EDCs ... "endocrine-disrupting chemicals that are part of our daily lives are making us more susceptible to reproductive disorders, cancer, diabetes, obesity, heart disease, and other serious health conditions," said the report's lead author, Andrea C. Gore, PhD, of the University of Texas at Austin ... Evidence suggests that EDCs in the environment contribute to disorders such as diabetes, neurological disorders, reproductive disorders, inflammation, and compromised immune functioning ... PFAS are used in hundreds of products including clothing and food packaging, but recent studies show that some PFAS can disrupt hormones such as estrogen and testosterone and impair thyroid hormone functions.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/02/240226204702.htmBehavioral Studies of Zebrafish Reveal a New Perspective on the Reproductive Toxicity of Micro- and Nanoplastics
The escalating prevalence of microplastics and nanoplastics [MNP] in aquatic environments is a major challenge affecting the behavior and reproductive health of aquatic organisms while posing potential risks to human health and ecosystems ... zebrafish, as a model organism, provide valuable insights into the subtle but important effects of MNPs on reproductive behavior, which is critical for understanding reproductive success, suggesting that behavioral changes can serve as an early biomarker of reproductive toxicity [and] indicated that the behavioral parameters of zebrafish can be used as an effective and rapid tool to evaluate the reproductive toxicity of MNPs ... Our analysis underscores the significant oxidative stress and hormonal changes caused by MNPs, especially their impact on the HPG axis and overall reproductive health. This work underscores the importance of behavioral analysis in zebrafish as a reliable method for assessing reproductive toxicity, offering a new perspective in understanding the broader implications of MNPs.
https://www.mdpi.com/2305-6304/12/3/178Microplastics Found in Every Human Placenta Tested, Study Finds
Using a new technique, researchers have now identified tiny particles and fibers of plastic less than a micron in size in the largest sample of placentas yet. As environmental plastic pollution continues to worsen, contamination of the placenta is on track to only increase, as humans breathe in and ingest more plastic than ever before. "Dose makes the poison," explains biologist Matthew Campen from the University of New Mexico. "If the dose keeps going up, we start to worry. If we're seeing effects on placentas, then all mammalian life on this plant could be impacted."
https://www.sciencealert.com/microplastics-found-in-every-human-placenta-tested-study-finds
reporting on a study at https://academic.oup.com/toxsci/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/toxsci/kfae021/7609801Latest Science Shows Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals in Plastics, Pesticides, and Other Sources Pose Health Threats Globally
Everyday exposures to EDCs in the environment may be linked to increasing rates of infertility and other serious conditions
A report from the world’s leading scientific and medical experts on hormone-related health conditions raises new concerns about the profound threats to human health from endocrine disruptor chemicals (EDCs) that are ubiquitous in our surroundings and everyday lives. The report, “Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals: Threats to Human Health” provides a comprehensive update on the state of the science around EDCs, with increasing evidence that this large group of toxic substances may be implicated in rising global health concerns.
https://www.endocrine.org/news-and-advocacy/news-room/2024/latest-science-shows-endocrine-disrupting-chemicals-in-pose-health-threats-globally
https://www.endocrine.org/-/media/endocrine/files/advocacy/edc-report2024finalcompressed.pdfAntarctica sea ice reaches alarming low for third year in a row
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/24/antarctica-sea-ice-reaches-alarming-low-for-third-year-in-a-rowHuge ice loss risks Antarctica’s ‘destabilisation’
Antarctica is coming under intense pressure from climate change, with sea ice levels nearing a record low at the same time as a rapid melting of swaths of the continent’s ice mass. The latest melting season in Antarctica, which takes place in the southern hemisphere summer during December, January and February, was more than a month longer in some areas of the continent ... Research published last month found that Antarctic sea ice extent fell to unprecedented lows at key periods across 2023. Sea temperatures have been exceptionally high across the world since last March
https://www.ft.com/content/deb66512-d866-43a6-bffa-3a37dbb48a8aRain Comes to the Arctic, With a Cascade of Troubling Changes
Rain used to be rare in the Arctic, but as the region warms, so-called “rain-on-snow events” are becoming more common. The rains accelerate ice loss, trigger flooding, landslides, and avalanches, and create problems for wildlife and the Indigenous people who depend on them ... All that rain is significant because the melting of the Greenland ice sheet — like the melting of other glaciers around the world — is one of the most important drivers of sea level rise. Each time a rain-on-snow event happens, says Harper, the structure of the firn layer is altered, and it becomes a bit more susceptible to impacts from the next melting event. “It suggests that only a minor increase in frequency and intensity of similar rain-on-snow events in the future will have an outsized impact,” he says ... Changes can already be seen. Thunderstorms are now spawning in places where they have historically been rare ... A shift from runoff dominated by snowmelt in spring and summer to runoff from both rain and snowmelt is accelerating permafrost thaw and ground slumping.
https://e360.yale.edu/features/arctic-rainfall-climate-change‘Our yields are going to be appalling’: one of wettest winters in decades hits England’s farms
Few regions have been spared. In the 12 months to January, only four of England’s 139 hydrological areas (regions around rivers, lakes and other water sources) were classed as having normal rainfall levels. Of the remaining areas, 47 were rated as having notably high levels, and 76 – more than half – were deemed exceptionally high. The Kent area, known as “the garden of England” and home to many arable farmers, experienced its wettest 12-month period since records began. Regions near major rivers such as the Wear, Don, Calder, Derwent, Mersey and Irwell reported the wettest six-month period since records began [and] the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (UKCEH) said the saturation from the previous months of heavy rain meant soil had not had a chance to dry out, and the high February rain meant problems persisted ... The forecasts for this year’s harvest look gloomy.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/feb/23/farms-flooding-rainfall-winter-nfu-conferenceErratic weather fueled by climate change will worsen locust outbreaks, study finds
The desert locust is a migratory insect that travels in swarms of millions over long distances ... A square kilometer swarm comprises 80 million locusts that can in one day consume food crops enough to feed 35,000 people. The U.N.'s Food and Agriculture Organization describes it as "the most destructive migratory pest in the world." The study, published in Science Advances on Wednesday, said these outbreaks will be "increasingly hard to prevent and control" in a warming climate ... Countries affected by desert locust outbreaks are already grappling with climate-driven extremes like droughts, floods and heat waves, and the potential escalation of locust risks in these regions could exacerbate existing challenges.
https://www.africanews.com/2024/02/15/erratic-weather-fueled-by-climate-change-will-worsen-locust-outbreaks-study-finds/
reporting on a study at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adj1164Alberta’s Brutal Water Reckoning
Alberta’s water reckoning has begun in earnest. Snowpack accumulations in the Oldman River basin, the Bow River basin and the North Saskatchewan River basin range from 33 to 62 per cent below normal. Ancient glaciers that feed and top up prairie rivers in the late summer melted at record speeds last year, the hottest on global records. Many indomitable ice packs, such as the well-studied Peyto Glacier, are disappearing altogether. Fifty-one river basins from Milk River to Hay River report critical water shortages due to low rainfall and high temperatures. Groundwater levels in parts of Alberta have reached record lows ... Alberta’s water emergency, which is also a fire emergency, was foretold by scores of water scientists. They predicted that prolonged water scarcity would hit southern Alberta hard for stubborn geographical reasons ... The scientists, in their paper, turned their attention to trends in glacier mass and snowpack depth, which also told a story of persistent decline. These dwindling snowpacks once provided water insurance for rivers in the months of May and June. But no more.
https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2024/02/19/Alberta-Brutal-Water-Reckoning/More frequent extreme droughts result in significant crop losses
Climate change has resulted in increasingly extreme weather events worldwide ... “Previously, short-term extreme droughts could occur every 100 years. According to some climate scenarios, we can expect them to happen every five to ten years in the future” ... The scientists investigated 170 sites worldwide. The results revealed a significant reduction in plant production in the studied ecosystems after [just] one year of extreme drought.
https://www.nibio.no/en/news/more-frequent-extreme-droughts-result-in-significant-crop-lossesSkyrocketing ocean temperatures have scientists scratching their heads
For nearly a year now, a bizarre heating event has been unfolding across the world’s oceans. In March 2023, global sea surface temperatures started shattering record daily highs and have stayed that way since ... where we are so far in 2024 [is] way, way above even 2023. While we’re nowhere near the Atlantic hurricane season yet—that runs from June 1 through the autumn—keep in mind that cyclones feed on warm ocean water, which could well stay anomalously hot in the coming months. Regardless, these surface temperature anomalies could be triggering major ecological problems already.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/02/skyrocketing-ocean-temperatures-have-scientists-scratching-their-heads/Rain Comes to the Arctic, With a Cascade of Troubling Changes
Rain used to be rare in the Arctic, but as the region warms, so-called rain-on-snow events are becoming more common. The rains accelerate ice loss, trigger flooding, landslides, and avalanches, and create problems for wildlife and the Indigenous people who depend on them ... All that rain is significant because the melting of the Greenland ice sheet — like the melting of other glaciers around the world — is one of the most important drivers of sea level rise. Each time a rain-on-snow event happens, says Harper, the structure of the firn layer is altered ... Greater rainfall will trigger more flooding, more landslides and avalanches, and more misery for Arctic animals.
https://e360.yale.edu/features/arctic-rainfall-climate-changeAfrica’s ice is disappearing
The few glaciers in Africa have long since become an important indicator of how rapidly and severely climate change is changing our planet. The ice on the high summits of the continent is rapidly disappearing, Africa may lose its white peaks by the middle of our century ... “Since the glaciers were mapped for the first time at the turn of the century between the 19th and the 20th century, more than 90 percent of their area has disappeared,” explains Anne Hinzmann ... The climate indicators of the glaciers in the tropical regions do not only show that climate change has long since started, it also shows that it is progressing at a breakneck speed. “A decrease at this scale is alarming ... The glaciers in Africa are a clear indicator of the impact of climate change.”
https://www.fau.eu/2024/02/21/news/research/africas-ice-is-disappearing/
reporting on a study at https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad1fd7‘Like the flip of a switch, it’s gone’: has the ecosystem of the UK’s largest lake collapsed?
The loss of these keystone species, alongside sharp reductions of others, the spread of invasive species like zebra mussels, and a long-term deterioration in water quality, indicates deep trouble across the lough’s entire ecology. It also raises the prospect that this shallow body of water and its surrounding wetlands may have shifted beyond a state of decline into cascading ecosystem collapse ... Lough Neagh – the largest freshwater lake in the UK – supplies more than 40% of Northern Ireland’s drinking water, and hosts the largest wild eel fishery in Europe [but] last summer, a vast “bloom” of blue-green algae – a thick, photosynthesising blanket that deprives the lake of oxygen, choking aquatic life – brought the lough’s accelerating biodiversity crisis into sharp focus. It prompted considerable public outcry and is expected to return in “more severe” form this coming summer.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/feb/19/like-the-flip-of-a-switch-its-gone-has-the-ecosystem-of-the-uk-largest-lake-collapsed-aoe'Zombie Fires' burning at an alarming rate in Canada
Overwintering fires ... burn slowly below the surface, and are kept alive thanks to an organic soil called peat moss common in North America's boreal forest and to thick layers of snow that insulate them ... in January, [BC] saw an unprecedented peak of 106 active zombie fires [and] 91 are still burning ... those that are not extinguished by March could reignite once the snow melts and they are exposed to air. Because of this, scientists have linked them to early starts of wildfire seasons ... More than 18 million hectares (44 million acres) of land were burned by wildfires in Canada in 2023 - an area roughly the size of Cambodia - far surpassing the country's 10-year average ... the effect was felt well beyond Canada's borders when smoke blanketed a large section of the US in June. That calamitous wildfire season is one of the reasons why BC is now seeing such a high number of zombie fires [as] most of them are fires that could not be put out fully [plus] the extreme drought that the province has been dealing with over the last two years ... [zombie fires] have become more common in recent years due to a rapidly warming climate.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68228943NOAA: Ice coverage nearly nonexistent across the Great Lakes, as the historical peak approaches
Great Lakes ice coverage was record low to start January in large part due to well-above average warmth across the region in December, paired with the lack of any major Arctic air blasts ... ice formation across the lakes did not pick up in January, and it has been nearly nonexistent as far as mid-February normals go ... coverage has steadily fallen into never-before-recorded levels for mid-February. Daily record-low ice cover has persisted across the Great Lakes since February 8, 2024, and this week dropped to under 3 percent. As of February 15, 2024, Lake Erie is completely ice free and Lake Ontario has less than 1 percent ice coverage.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/ice-coverage-nearly-nonexistent-across-great-lakes-historical-peakRoyal Meteorological Society: 2023's Antarctic sea ice extent is the lowest on record
In 2023, sea ice extent fell to record lows, reaching unprecedented values for both the summer minimum, winter maximum and intervening freeze-up period. Here, we show that the extreme values observed were truly remarkable within the context of the satellite record ... The sheer magnitude and rarity of the anomalies observed hints that something unusual is happening in the Antarctic and that climate change may be involved [and] it seems inescapable that Antarctic sea ice will begin to decline in response to anthropogenic climate change. In fact, several studies have hinted that recent record low sea ice years may be less unusual in the near future ... Southern Ocean warming has been robustly linked to rising anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and the direct connection between recent low sea ice conditions and the buildup of ocean heat suggests a causal link to human-caused climate change.
https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wea.4518Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course
Here, we show results of the first tipping event in the Community Earth System Model, including the large climate impacts of the collapse. Using these results, we develop a physics-based and observable early warning signal of AMOC tipping: the minimum of the AMOC-induced freshwater transport at the southern boundary of the Atlantic. Reanalysis products indicate that the present-day AMOC is on route to tipping [which would] strongly influence the regional climates across the globe. The European climate is significantly different after the AMOC collapse ... AMOC-induced precipitation changes could severely disrupt the ecosystem of the Amazon rainforest and potentially lead to cascading tipping ... changes occur within a relatively short period and under a very small change in surface freshwater forcing ... This is bad news for the climate system and humanity as up until now one could think that AMOC tipping was only a theoretical concept.
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189
see also: a good and very readable article based on this study at
Beyond the tipping point: The Collapse of Ocean Currents and its Weather impact on the United States and Europe
https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/ocean-currents-near-a-tipping-point-of-collapse-weather-effects-united-states-europe-faPivotal moment for humanity as tipping point threats and opportunities accelerate, report warns
An acceleration in threats from Earth system tipping points, which occur when small changes spark often rapid and irreversible transformations, has set humanity on a disastrous trajectory, a new report shows. Based on an assessment of 26 negative Earth system tipping points, the report says "business as usual" is no longer possible — with rapid changes to nature and societies already happening, and more coming ... Professor Caroline Lear, one of the report's co-authors from Cardiff University's School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, said, "Our research shows that in the past, even small natural changes in greenhouse gas concentrations had a domino effect changing different parts of our planet [and] without more significant climate action we expect to see a similar domino effect from the much faster changes in greenhouse gas concentrations caused by burning fossil fuels." Without urgent action to halt the climate and ecological crisis, societies will be overwhelmed as the natural world comes apart, the authors warn.
https://phys.org/news/2024-02-pivotal-moment-humanity-threats-opportunities.html
reporting on a study at https://global-tipping-points.org/A ‘collapse’ is looming for Louisiana’s coastal wetlands, scientists say
New research documents how a sudden burst of sea level rise over the past 13 years — the type of surge once not expected until later this century — has left the overwhelming majority of [Louisiana’s] coastal wetland sites in a state of current or expected “drowning,” where the seas are rising faster than wetlands can grow ... “If this rate of sea level rise continues for another 10 or 20 years, then we would probably lose the vast majority of our wetlands in that time period,” said Torbjorn Tornqvist, a Tulane wetlands expert and the second of the study’s three authors ... Brady Couvillion, a wetlands expert with the U.S. Geological Survey, has also found a recent speedup in the rate of Louisiana wetland losses ... Adam Langley, a wetlands researcher and biology professor at Villanova University who was not involved in Thursday’s study, said the new paper’s findings are broadly consistent with what scientists around the world are documenting.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/02/15/louisiana-coastal-erosion-swamp-wetland-loss/How Did We Miss 20% of Greenland’s Ice Loss?
The ice loss was hidden in places existing monitoring methods can’t reach, such as hard-to-map fjords The Greenland Ice Sheet has lost more than 1,000 gigatons (Gt) of ice to calving since 1985—increasing previous estimates of mass loss by 20%. This revised number comes from a recent study of the territory’s glaciers over almost 4 decades. The research also revealed marine-terminating glaciers that responded more strongly to seasonal temperature changes also lost more mass over time ... The new estimate could mean Atlantic Ocean circulation is less stable than previously thought.
https://eos.org/articles/how-did-we-miss-20-of-greenlands-ice-loss
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06863-2Climate experts sound alarm over thriving plant life at Greenland ice sheet
Significant areas of Greenland’s melted ice sheet are now producing vegetation, risking increased greenhouse gas emissions, rising sea levels and instability of the landscape. A study has documented the change since the 1980s and shows that large areas of ice have been replaced with barren rock, wetlands and shrub growth, creating a change in environment ... As ice has retreated, the amount of land with vegetation growing on it has increased by 33,774 sq miles, more than twice the area covered when the study began. The findings show a near-quadrupling of wetlands across Greenland, which are a source of methane emissions ... warmer air temperatures are causing the ice to retreat and since the 1970s the region has been heating up at double the global average rate.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/13/flourishing-vegetation-greenland-ice-sheet-alarm-climate-crisis
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-52124-1Flowers are blooming up to 22 days earlier due to climate change
Researchers from the University of Seville have conducted a significant study to explore the effects of climate change on the flora of Doñana National Park [Spain]. The backdrop of this study is a notable increase in temperatures in the area, with an average rise of 1°C [which] led to a significant shift in the plant community’s peak flowering time, moving forward by 22 days, from May 9 to April 17 ... affecting 80% of the observed species by advancing their flowering start, and 68% by moving up the end of their flowering period ... the advancing flowering times due to climate change could disrupt the synchronization between plants and their pollinator insects.
https://www.earth.com/news/flowers-are-blooming-up-to-22-days-earlier-due-to-climate-change/The spiralling cost of insuring against climate disasters
Global warming is making extreme weather events such as storms, floods and wildfires more frequent and severe ... As firms exit some areas and demand higher premiums in others, affordable home insurance cover — for many an essential annual outlay, often a condition of their mortgage debt — is getting harder to secure ... In the US, a repricing of risks has sparked a significant rise in premiums. Several big US insurers, including State Farm and The Hartford, have paused their underwriting of new home policies ... All this is adding greater urgency and attention to a challenge long predicted by environmental activists: that climate change will make parts of the world uninsurable.
https://www.ft.com/content/ed3a1bb9-e329-4e18-89de-9db90eaadc0b
or https://archive.ph/uAYNIStorms in California hit homeowners already facing an insurance crisis
Insurance costs in much of California have become exceedingly high, with some insurers abandoning the market, unwilling to take on the risk presented by the frequency and severity of climate disasters in the region. But it is not just California ... Home insurance woes are becoming even more widespread [and] competition isn’t coming to save the day. [In the past] a competitor would always move in. “But that isn’t happening now.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/06/economy/storms-california-homeowners-insurance/index.htmlLandmark UN report: world’s migratory species of animals are in decline, and global extinction risk is increasing
The first-ever State of the World’s Migratory Species report was launched today by the Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals (CMS), a UN biodiversity treaty, at the opening of a major UN wildlife conservation conference (CMS COP14). The landmark report reveals:
• More than one-in-five (22 per cent) of CMS-listed species are threatened with extinction.
• Nearly all (97 per cent) of CMS-listed fish are threatened with extinction.
• The extinction risk is growing for migratory species globally, including those not listed under CMS.
• The two greatest threats to both CMS-listed and all migratory species are overexploitation and habitat loss due to human activity.
https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/press-release/landmark-un-report-worlds-migratory-species-animals-are-decline-andSpring plants bloom a month earlier due to high temperatures
Spring plants [in the Netherlands] bloom one month earlier than 50 years ago, natural scientists Arnold van Vliet and Wichertje Bron from Natuurkalender and Wageningen University and Letty de Weger from LUMC wrote in the scientific journal Nature Today. Plants such as spearwort, yellow dogwood, snowdrops and crocus are already in full bloom.
https://nltimes.nl/2024/02/11/spring-plants-bloom-month-earlier-due-high-temperaturesThe Roman Empire’s Worst Plagues Were Linked to Climate Change
The sixth-century C.E. Plague of Justinian was “a pestilence, by which the whole human race came near to being annihilated,” according to the Byzantine historian Procopius. Up to half the population of the Roman Empire and tens of millions of people around the Mediterranean may have been killed ... a new study published on Friday in Science Advances links this—and other pandemics in the Roman Empire—to climate change [that] caused stresses in Roman society that resulted in such pandemics [and] shows how a changing climate can have dire consequences for societies that are not robust enough to withstand the upheavals it can cause ... These disruptions included declines in food supplies and the prevalence of rats, mosquitoes and other pests ... “when you have rapid climate change, it’s very destabilizing—it displaces ecosystems, and it destabilizes societies.”
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-roman-empires-worst-plagues-were-linked-to-climate-change/
reporting on a study at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk1033World's first year-long breach of key 1.5C warming limit
For the first time, global warming has exceeded 1.5C across an entire year, according to the EU's climate service. Limiting long-term warming to 1.5C above "pre-industrial" levels - before humans started burning large amounts of fossil fuels - has become a key symbol of international efforts to tackle climate change. But temperatures have kept rising at a concerning pace ... February 2023 to January 2024 reached 1.52C of warming. The world's sea surface is also at its highest ever recorded average temperature - yet another sign of the widespread nature of climate records.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-68110310US scientists say one-in-three chance 2024 another year of record heat
This year has a one-in-three chance of being even hotter than 2023, which was already the world's hottest on record ... [NOAA] confirmed the findings of EU scientists that 2023 was the warmest since records began in 1850 ... heat stored in the upper layers of the ocean also reached a record high last year, NOAA said ... [due to] climate change, driven by the burning of fossil fuels, alongside an El Nino climate pattern that emerged halfway through the year [and] is expected to persist until at least April, increasing the likelihood 2024 will be another record year. NOAA said there was a one-in-three chance that 2024 would be warmer than 2023, and a 99% chance it would rank among the five warmest on record.
https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/us-scientists-say-one-in-three-chance-2024-another-year-record-heat-2024-01-12What's causing the Amazon's ongoing record drought?
As deforestation and fire degrade the forest along edges and roads, the Amazon's rain-making capacity gets weaker. Dry seasons get longer, and surface water dwindles. Mature trees succumb to droughts, and new ones fail to replace them ... In a 2018 essay in Science Advances, two Amazon experts pointed out that many models project that without deforestation and fires, an Amazon tipping point wouldn't be reached until global warming surpassed 4° Celsius above the pre-industrial. Without climate change, models estimated it would take deforestation rates of about 40 percent to push the Amazon past its tipping point [but] the combined "negative synergies" of multiple human impacts—fire, deforestation, and climate change—are very likely to lower the threshold [so] the tipping point may be a lot closer than we think.
https://phys.org/news/2024-02-amazon-ongoing-drought.htmlHurricanes becoming so strong that new category needed, study says
Scientists propose new category 6 rating to classify ‘mega-hurricanes’, becoming more likely due to climate crisis
Hurricanes are becoming so strong due to the climate crisis that the classification of them should be expanded to include a “category 6” storm, furthering the scale from the standard 1 to 5, according to a new study. [These] would include all hurricanes with sustained winds of 192mph or more. Such mega-hurricanes are becoming more likely due to global heating, studies have found, due to the warming of the oceans and atmosphere ... The new study, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, proposes an extension to the widely used Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/05/hurricanes-becoming-so-strong-that-new-category-needed-study-says
reporting on a study at https://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.2308901121Currently stable parts of East Antarctica may be closer to melting than anyone realized
In a paper published Jan. 19 in Geophysical Research Letters, researchers at Stanford have shown that the Wilkes Subglacial Basin in East Antarctica, which holds enough ice to raise global sea levels by more than 10 feet, could be closer to runaway melting than anyone realized ... [The new data could] mean that large sections of ground under the ice sheet are either close to thawing or made up of closely intermixed frozen and thawed areas. If the latter is true, the glaciers in the Wilkes Subglacial Basin could reach a tipping point with only a small increase in temperature at the base of the ice sheet. “This suggests that glacial retreat could be possible in the future,” Dawson said ... “This area has conditions that we could imagine changing,” Schroeder said. “And if warm ocean water gets there, it’s going to ‘turn on’ a whole sector of Antarctica we don’t normally think about as a contributor to sea level rise.”
https://engineering.stanford.edu/magazine/currently-stable-parts-east-antarctica-may-be-closer-melting-anyone-realized
reporting on a study at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GL105450Ocean heating breaks record, again, with disastrous outcomes for the planet
https://news.mongabay.com/2024/01/ocean-heating-breaks-record-again-with-disastrous-outcomes-for-the-planet/
reporting on a study at https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-024-3378-5Great Lakes average ice cover drops to 6%, one of lowest levels ever recorded
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/feb/12/great-lakes-average-ice-coverGreat Lakes may have already had the peak ice for this winter [in January]
The amount of ice on the Great Lakes has been incredibly low so far this winter. In looking at the ice concentration graphs and knowing the weather coming in the first two weeks of February, the Great Lakes may have already had the peak ice for this winter ... With the warm weather coming in the first two weeks of February, temperatures will be in the 30s, 40s and 50s [Farenheit] around the Great Lakes region. Ice cover should continue to shrink. Even if we get a return to some normal cold in the second half of February it will be almost impossible for the Great Lakes to build ice back to a level higher than January.
https://www.mlive.com/weather/2024/01/great-lakes-ice-cover-doing-almost-the-unthinkable.htmlClimate change made 2023 the hottest and wettest year in Dutch history: KNMI
The cause is also clear, the meteorological institute emphasized: climate change
Until recently, the KNMI always compared the annual temperature with the average temperature over 30 years. That was called the climatic normal - after all, the weather is always different, but if you take 30 years together, it gives a good average. “But now we can no longer actually speak of a climate normal,” said Van Aalst. Last year, the Netherlands was 1.3 degrees warmer than the climate normal. “But the average has shifted more and more. If we compare the temperature of 2023 with the average of the first 30 years when measurements started in 1901, our country was 2.9 degrees warmer last year than then. That is a really big difference” ... The KNMI is further surprised by certain turning points where the world already seems much closer to disaster than previously thought. “We saw that a record amount of ice in Antarctica has melted. Things are already happening there that we did not expect. We have to keep a close eye on this to know what is coming our way.”
https://nltimes.nl/2024/01/31/climate-change-made-2023-hottest-wettest-year-dutch-history-knmiArctic Could Be Sea Ice Free in the Summer by the 2030s
Summer sea ice in the Arctic could melt almost completely by the 2030s—roughly a decade earlier than projected—even if humans cut back drastically on greenhouse gas emissions, new research suggests. “We are very quickly about to lose the Arctic summer sea-ice cover, basically independent of what we are doing,” Dirk Notz, a climate scientist at the University of Hamburg in Germany [said]. An ice-free summer, also called a “blue ocean event,” will happen when the sea ice drops below one million square kilometers (386,102 square miles) ... Previous assessments using models have estimated an ice-free summer under high and intermediate emissions scenarios by 2050. But researchers noticed differences between what climate models predicted and what they've actually seen through observations. Now, in a new study published in Nature Communications, Notz, Gillett and their colleagues tweaked these models to more closely fit satellite data collected over the past 40 years. Using these modified models, the researchers projected ice changes under different possible levels of greenhouse gas emissions. Their paper suggests that regardless of emissions scenario, “we may experience an unprecedented ice-free Arctic climate in the next decade or two” ... Sea ice decline could have catastrophic consequences that extend to the rest of the planet. “It’s already happening,” [said] Mark C. Serreze, the director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado Boulder who was not involved with the new research.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/arctic-could-be-sea-ice-free-in-summer-by-2030s-180982326
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-38511-8Some Animals Are Desperately Turning Nocturnal, Study Shows
When a cheetah hunts at night, the risks from larger leopards and lions increase. When the Alpine ibex scours for its vegetation-filled meal in the dark, it takes on greater threat of being eaten itself (most commonly by a wolf). But these tradeoffs are occurring across the globe, as animals wary of rising daytime temperatures turn their activities to cooler nights. The studies highlighting this correlation between warming temperatures driving animals to turn nocturnal—even when it decreases their risk of survival, thanks to predatory activity—keep coming. The latest, a study published in the Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, tracked the activity of 47 ibex in two protected areas.
https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/animals/a46597422/warming-temperatures-are-turning-animals-nocturnal/
reporting on a study at https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2023.1587Coral reef monitor adds new alert levels to keep up with soaring ocean temperatures
Coral Reef Watch is a program run by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that uses satellites and computer models to monitor heat risk to reefs. Since it first launched in 2009, Coral Reef Watch has used two alert categories for monitoring heat risk to coral reefs — Level 1, which means reefs are at risk of coral bleaching, and Level 2, which means indicates the risk of "mortality of heat-sensitive corals." But in December 2023 — on the heels of a massive summer marine heatwave — the group added three more alert levels, which it unveiled publicly this month. Level 3 indicates a risk of multi-species mortality for corals, Level 4 means more than half the corals in a reef could die, and Level 5 means "risk of near-complete mortality." "An alert Level 5 condition really represents the most extreme, worst-case scenario, that you could anticipate happening on a coral reef from heat stress," Manzello said. Before 2023, he says there were only three instances of heating at this level described in scientific literature. [But] that's what happened to several reefs during the summer heatwaves of 2023, the effects of which were documented in a NOAA-University of Queensland study published in December ... the degree of ocean warming in 2023 and 2024 has been "unprecedented in modern times."
https://www.cbc.ca/radio/asithappens/coral-reef-watch-alerts-1.7103786
reporting on a study at https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-university-of-queensland-report-marine-heatwaves-severely-impacting-coralsPermafrost alone holds back Arctic rivers—and a lot of carbon
Permafrost, the thick layer of soil that stays frozen for two or more years at a time, is the reason that Arctic rivers are uniformly confined to smaller areas and shallower valleys than rivers to the south, according to a study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. But permafrost also is an increasingly fragile reservoir of vast amounts of carbon. As climate change weakens Artic permafrost, the researchers calculate that every 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degree Celsius) of global warming could release as much carbon as 35 million cars emit in a year as polar waterways expand and churn up the thawing soil ... "if things get warm and suddenly river channels start to win, we're going to see a large amount of carbon get released into the atmosphere. That will likely create this warming feedback loop that leads to the release of more greenhouse gases" ... Permafrost's power to limit the footprint of Arctic rivers also allows it to store vast amounts of carbon in the frozen earth, according to the study. To estimate the carbon that would be released from these watersheds due to climate change, the researchers combined the amount of carbon stored in permafrost with the soil erosion that would result as the ground thaws and is washed away as Arctic rivers spread. Research suggests that the Arctic has warmed by more than 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) above pre-industrial levels, or roughly since 1850.
https://phys.org/news/2024-02-permafrost-arctic-rivers-lot-carbon.html
reporting on a study at https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2307072120RIVM has known about PFAS in eggs beyond Dordrecht for years
The Dutch Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) has known for years that there are high concentrations of toxic PFAS in eggs from hobby chicken keepers throughout the Netherlands. The institute published a study that showed this in 2015, NOS reports ... A spokesperson for the RIVM told the [NOS] broadcaster that the 2015 study can’t be compared to the recent one in Dordrecht because measuring methods have become much more sensitive in the intervening decade ... The RIVM quickly decided to discourage the consumption of hobby eggs in Dordrecht based on how high the values were in the preliminary results. The RIVM doesn’t want to do the same nationwide based on research using outdated measuring methods, the spokesperson said ... Professor Jacob de Boer and university researcher Chiel Jonker called it weird that the RIVM is using outdated measuring methods as a reason not to warn of a potential risk. According to them, the fact that scientists found too-high levels of PFAS using less sensitive measuring methods should be reason for alarm, not complacency ... PFAS is a collective name for thousands of chemical substances that can be harmful to people and the environment [causing problems such as infertility by acting as endocrine disruptors]. PFAS are typically used to make non-stick coatings and products that resist heat, oil, stains, grease, and water.
https://nltimes.nl/2024/02/02/rivm-known-pfas-eggs-beyond-dordrecht-yearsTexas Is Already Running Out of Water
Parts of the state are starting the year with low reserves. With light winter rains failing to replenish supply, and a scorching summer predicted, key areas may be pushed to the brink. That’s bad news for places like far-south Texas, where big reservoirs on the Lower Rio Grande fell from 33 percent to 23 percent full over the past 12 months. A repeat of similar conditions would leave the reservoirs far lower than they’ve ever been, triggering an emergency response and an international crisis ... In Corpus Christi, on the south Texas coast, authorities last month stopped releasing water aimed at maintaining minimum viable ecology in the coastal wetlands, even as oil refineries and chemical plants remain exempt from water use restrictions during drought. Also last month, in the sprawling suburbs of Central Texas, between Austin and San Antonio, one groundwater district declared stage 4 drought for the first time in its 36-year history. Texans don’t usually talk about drought in the winter ... “Signs are not favorable,” said Greg Waller, a coordinating hydrologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Fort Worth. “Expect warmer and drier, again” ... Last year was the hottest on record for Texas—and the Earth, according to NOAA—after a global heat wave shattered temperature records around the world. These patterns, Waller said, are consistent with scientific understanding of climate change caused by carbon emissions. “Climate change means the extremes are going to get more extreme,” he said. “The heat waves are going to get more heat. The droughts are going to get droughty-er and the floods are going to get floody-er.”
https://www.wired.com/story/texas-water-drought-winter-weather-shortageMajority of America’s underground water stores are drying up, study finds
More than half of the aquifers in the United States (53 percent) are losing water, according to research published Wednesday in Nature. “Groundwater levels are declining rapidly in many areas,” co-author Scott Jasechko of the University of California, Santa Barbara told The Hill. “And what’s worse, the rate of groundwater decline is accelerating in a large portion of areas,” Jasechko said. The impacted aquifers support much of the U.S. food system, as well as providing water used by many Americans. And the country is not alone in its losses: The study found rapid loss of water in aquifers that supply hundreds of millions of people worldwide. “We’re finding that in dry places where a large portion of the land is under cultivation, groundwater level declines are, if anything, accelerating over time,” Jasechko said.
https://thehill.com/policy/equilibrium-sustainability/4426143-majority-of-americas-underground-water-stores-are-drying-up-study-findsWater-guzzling ‘hot drought’ in the West is unprecedented in at least 5 centuries, study suggests
The West’s recent heat-driven megadroughts are unprecedented in at least 500 years, new research shows ... “What we’re seeing is that megadrought conditions are being amplified by anthropogenically driven (human caused) temperature increases,” said Karen King, lead author of the study ... Wednesday’s study builds on previous research, including one study that found the last two decades in the West have been the driest in 1,200 years, and the human-caused climate crisis made the yearslong dry spell 72% worse ... “When you put the two (studies) together, it paints a very cohesive picture that this anthropogenic influence on increased hot drought, particularly in the Southwest, is unprecedented over the last several centuries.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/24/climate/hot-drought-west-climate/index.html
reporting on a study at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adj4289Prepare for a ‘Gray Swan’ Climate
The next climate extremes are both predictable and unprecedented, and they’re coming on fast.
The way to think about climate change now is through two interlinked concepts. The first is nonlinearity, the idea that change will happen by factors of multiplication, rather than addition. The second is the idea of “gray swan” events, which are both predictable and unprecedented ... “As we push toward a warmer world, with this nonlinear multiplicative factor, we’re pushing into this realm of things we haven’t seen before,” Shaw told me. “It’s not just inching toward more breaking records, but shattering them. It’s something that we should expect.” Among these new extremes will be gray-swan events. These are not like black-swan events, which Shaw described as completely “unpredictable or unforeseeable”. Instead, scientists will start to observe things that they can foresee based on physics, but that haven’t appeared in the historical record before. “As we reflect, as climate scientists, on events that we see emerging, there are these record-shattering, extreme events" ... We all have to live in the world that results, one way or another. "This is really uncharted territory.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2024/01/climate-change-acceleration-nonlinear-gray-swan/677201/Scientists retrieve rare methane hydrate samples for climate and energy study
Methane hydrates are an ice-like form of methane found under high pressure and low temperatures. They are commonly formed on and under the seafloor and under arctic permafrost. However, the hydrates dissipate quickly at pressures found at the Earth's surface, which releases methane into the atmosphere. The solid hydrates are incredibly energy-dense, with each unit of methane hydrate holding 165 times the energy of an equivalent volume of gas at surface conditions [and] is also a potent greenhouse gas ... "We have a really poor understanding of how much there is," said Ann Cook, a professor at The Ohio State University School of Earth Sciences and a scientist on the mission. "We know there's a lot, but our estimates vary by orders of magnitude."
https://phys.org/news/2024-01-scientists-rare-methane-hydrate-samples.htmlAfter years of stability, Antarctica is losing ice
In contrast to the far north, the southern continent’s massive ice sheets, glaciers, ice shelves (ice that floats on the ocean), and seasonal ice appeared to be reliably frozen [but] the situation has changed. On balance, Antarctica is now losing ice. And more and more, scientists are concerned about that melting and its potential impacts. [Includes links to a number of good explanatory articles and studies.]
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/01/after-years-of-stability-antarctica-is-losing-ice/Greenland losing 30 million tonnes of ice an hour, study reveals
Some scientists are concerned that this additional source of freshwater pouring into the north Atlantic might mean a collapse of the ocean currents called the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc) ... “The changes around Greenland are tremendous and they’re happening everywhere – almost every glacier has retreated over the past few decades,” said Dr Chad Greene, at Nasa’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in the US, who led the research ... The Amoc was already known to be at its weakest in 1,600 years and in 2021 researchers spotted warning signs of a tipping point. A recent study suggested the collapse could happen as soon as 2025 in the worst-case scenario. A significant part of the Greenland ice sheet itself is also thought by scientists to be close to a tipping point of irreversible melting, with ice equivalent to 1-2 metres of sea level rise probably already expected.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/17/greenland-losing-30m-tonnes-of-ice-an-hour-study-revealsModeling study finds alpine glaciers will lose at least a third [and up to 65%] of their volume by 2050
[A] more realistic projection from the study shows that, without drastic changes or measures, if the melting trend of the last 20 years continues, almost half (46%) of the Alps' ice volume will actually have disappeared by 2050. This figure could even rise to 65%, if we extrapolate the data from the last ten years alone ... "The data used to build the scenarios stopped in 2022, a year that was followed by an exceptionally hot summer. It is, therefore, likely that the situation will be even worse than the one we present," states Samuel Cook, a researcher at UNIL and first author of the study.
https://phys.org/news/2024-01-alpine-glaciers-volume.html
reporting on a study at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL105029Canadian tar sands pollution is up to 6,300% higher than reported, study finds
Research published in the journal Science found that air pollution from the vast Athabasca oil sands in Canada exceed industry-reported emissions across the studied facilities by a staggering 1,900% to over 6,300% ... damaging reactive pollutants from the oil sands are equivalent to those from all other human-made sources across Canada.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/25/canadian-tar-sands-pollution-is-up-to-6300-higher-than-reported-study-findsThe United States is producing more oil than any country in history
Record-shattering US production is helping to offset aggressive supply cuts meant to support high prices by OPEC+, mainly Saudi Arabia and Russia. Other non-OPEC oil producers including Canada and Brazil are also pumping more oil than ever before ... Goldman Sachs analysts on Sunday cut their forecast for oil prices next year. The bank said the “key reason” behind the lowered forecast is the abundance of US supply. Global demand for crude oil is set to hit a record in 2024 – but it will “easily be met” by the growth in supply, according to S&P’s projections.
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/19/business/us-production-oil-reserves-crude/index.htmlUS was top LNG exporter in 2023 as hit record levels
U.S. liquefied natural gas exports hit monthly and annual record highs in December, tanker tracking data showed, with analysts saying it positioned the United States to leapfrog Qatar and Australia to become the largest exporter of LNG in 2023. Full year exports from the U.S. rose 14.7% to 88.9 million metric tons. Europe remained the main destination for U.S. LNG exports in December, with 5.43 MT, or just over 61%. In November, 68% of U.S. LNG exports were to Europe.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-was-top-lng-exporter-2023-hit-record-levels-2024-01-02/Why Cold Snaps Don’t Negate The Threat Of Climate Warming
The “Captain Obvious” point is that we are in the midst of winter. We will always have winter even as our climate continues to warm ... With cold snaps like this one, there is a disruption in the Polar Vortex, which allows colder high-latitude air to make its way into the United States. A weakened or disrupted Polar Vortex allows lobes of colder air to be displaced southward ... that is weather. I always say, “Weather is your mood, climate is your personality.” The weather on a given day or week does not describe the broader background climate changes ... NOAA’s annual global climate report states, “The year 2023 was the warmest year since global records began [and] the 10 warmest years in the 174-year record have all occurred during the last decade (2014–2023).”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2024/01/14/why-cold-snaps-dont-negate-the-threat-of-climate-warming/
see also https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/climate-change-colder-winters-global-warming-polar-vortexKashmir's rare snowless winter sets off alarm bells
Every year, thousands of tourists visit Kashmir in winter to enjoy skiing and sightseeing. [But] climate change has been impacting the region, causing extreme weather events and prolonged dry spells in both winter and summer. Jammu and Kashmir's weather department recorded a 79% rainfall deficit in December and a 100% deficit in January. The valley is also experiencing warmer weather, with most stations in Kashmir recording a 6-8C (11-14F) rise in temperature this winter ... the absence of snowfall will also impact generation of hydroelectricity, fisheries and farming. "The farming here is dependent on glaciers. The glaciers are melting at a fast rate. No snowfall in the peak [winter] season means early that spring water will be a big problem," environmentalist Sonam Wangchuk says. The region normally receives heavy snowfall during peak winter - a 40-day period that lasts from 21 December to 29 January. During this time, mountains and glaciers get covered with snow and this ensures water supply throughout the year ... "We would witness heavy snowfall of up to 3ft (0.9m) and it wouldn't melt until spring. But we are now witnessing warm winters," Shakil Ahmad Romshoo, an earth scientist, says.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-68015106California Insurance Crisis Deepens as Providers Pull Out of State
Yet another insurer announces its decision to stop offering new policies to residents. The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc.—better known as The Hartford—announced on Wednesday that it will no longer offer new personal property insurance coverage to homeowners in the Golden State ... The Hartford followed the steps taken by several other private insurers in the past couple of years, including State Farm and Allstate, which both announced they would have stopped writing new policies in the state in November 2022 ... Studies have shown that the climate crisis has increased both the frequency and severity of extreme weather events like wildfires, hurricanes and tornadoes, especially in vulnerable states like California and Florida, which are both experiencing an ongoing insurance crisis. Smaller insurers, including Merastar Insurance Company, Unitrin Auto and Home Insurance Company, Unitrin Direct Property and Casualty Company, and Kemper Independence Insurance Company, announced last year that they would not renew policies in California in 2024. The result is that the number of options available to California homeowners to insure their properties is shrinking, and at the same time, their homes are more at risk of being damaged or destroyed by an extreme weather event.
https://www.newsweek.com/california-insurance-crisis-providers-pull-out-state-1863846Banks decline mortgage applications in ‘climate change credit crunch’
Homes are becoming uninsurable and unsellable due to flooding and subsidence risks
Climate change has been linked to severe storms and flooding, damaging homes and businesses every year ... causing lenders to increase their scrutiny of potential homebuyers ... lenders have been changing their borrowing criteria as extreme weather events place more homes at risk of damage – leaving them potentially worthless. [HSBC] warns that it can be harder to get a mortgage on a property that’s at a “high risk” of being impacted by climate change, “especially if it’s uninsurable, due to continuous flooding or the land being unstable, for example” and that “lenders are now completing further checks to assess whether or not a property is at risk due to climate change.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/net-zero/banks-decline-mortgages-climate-change-credit-crunch/Carbon released by bottom trawling ‘too big to ignore’, says study
Fishing nets churn up carbon from the sea floor, more than half of which will eventually be released into the atmosphere
Scientists have long known that bottom trawling – the practice of dragging massive nets along the seabed to catch fish – churns up carbon from the sea floor [and] described trawling as “marine deforestation” that causes “irreparable harm” to the climate, society and wildlife ... “Much like destroying forests, scraping up the sea floor causes irreparable harm to the climate, society and wildlife.” The research builds on previous work by some team members, published in 2021, which showed that bottom trawling released as much carbon dioxide into the ocean annually as the entire aviation industry [and] found that the amount released into the air could double the annual emissions from fuel combustion of the entire global fishing fleet.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/18/carbon-released-by-bottom-trawling-too-big-to-ignore-says-study
reporting on a study at https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2023.1125137/fullScientists explain why the record-shattering 2023 heat has them on edge. Warming may be worsening
The latest calculations from several science agencies showing Earth obliterated global heat records last year may seem scary. But scientists worry that what's behind those numbers could be even worse ... Most said they fear acceleration of climate change that is already right at the edge of the 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) increase since pre-industrial times that nations had hoped to stay within. “The heat over the last calendar year was a dramatic message from Mother Nature,” said University of Arizona climate scientist Katharine Jacobs. Several of the scientists who made the calculations said the climate behaved in strange ways in 2023. They wonder whether human-caused climate change and a natural El Nino were augmented by a freak blip or whether “there's something more systematic afoot,” as NASA climate scientist Gavin Schmidt put it ... Former NASA climate scientist James Hansen, often considered the godfather of global warming science, theorized last year that warming was accelerating. “There is some evidence that the rate of warming over the past decade or so is slightly faster than the decade or so previous — which meets the mathematical definition of acceleration,” said UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain. “However, this too is largely in line with predictions” that warming would accelerate at a certain point ... The World Meteorological Organization, combining the measurements announced Friday with Japanese and European calculations released earlier this month, pegged 2023 at 1.45 degrees Celsius (2.61 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than pre-industrial temperatures. Many of the climate scientists saw little hope of stopping warming at the 1.5-degree goal called for in the 2015 Paris agreement that sought to avert the worst consequences of climate change. “I do not consider it realistic that we can limit warming (averaged over several years) to 1.5C,” wrote Woodwell Climate Research Center scientist Jennifer Francis in an email. “It is technically possible but politically impossible” ... Both NASA and NOAA said the last 10 years, from 2014 to 2023, have been the 10 hottest years they’ve measured. It’s the third time in the last eight years that a global heat record was set. Randall Cerveny, an Arizona State University scientist who helps coordinate record-keeping for the WMO, said the big worry isn’t that a record was broken last year, but that they keep getting broken so frequently.
https://www.voanews.com/a/scientists-explain-record-shattering-2023-heat-warming-may-be-worsening-/7437692.html‘Astounding’ ocean temperatures in 2023 intensified extreme weather, data shows
Record levels of heat were absorbed last year by Earth’s seas, which have been warming year-on-year for the past decade The oceans absorb 90% of the heat trapped by the carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, making it the clearest indicator of global heating ... the oceans are now at their hottest for 1,000 years and heating faster than at any time in the past 2,000 years. The most common measure of the climate crisis – global average air temperature – was also driven up in 2023, by a huge margin ... The new study, published in the journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, used temperature data collected by a range of instruments across the oceans ... humanity uses about half a zettajoule of energy a year to fuel the entire global economy. In total, the oceans absorbed 287 zettajoules in 2023. The ocean surface temperatures in 2023 were “off the charts.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/11/ocean-warming-temperatures-2023-extreme-weather-data
reporting on a study at https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-024-3378-5The people paid to spot risks see high chance of ‘global catastrophe’ within 10 years
The gloomy outlook comes from an annual survey by the World Economic Forum (WEF) of people paid to identify and manage global risks. According to the report published Wednesday, nearly two-thirds of respondents expect an “elevated chance of global catastrophes” in the next decade. About 30% expect the same in the next two years. WEF said its latest report “warns of a global risks landscape in which progress in human development is being chipped away slowly, leaving states and individuals vulnerable to new and resurgent risks.” Results from the survey “highlight a predominantly negative outlook for the world in the short term that is expected to worsen over the long term,” it added. [The report] is based on responses from 1,490 risk experts primarily from business, but also academia, government, and civil society.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/10/business/wef-global-risks-report/index.html
reporting on a study at https://www.weforum.org/publications/global-risks-report-2024/digest/
the climate paper written by actuaries, mentioned in the video [PDF] is at https://actuaries.org.uk/media/qeydewmk/the-emperor-s-new-climate-scenarios.pdfPlants Worldwide Reach a Stomata Stalemate
The underside of a leaf is equipped with many thousands of stomata—microscopic pores that act as pathways for carbon dioxide and water vapor. As climate change causes temperatures to rise, stomata are narrowing, reducing plants’ ability to take in carbon, according to a new study published in Science. While the stomata are open, water vapor travels out, and carbon travels in. The ratio of carbon assimilation per unit of water loss is called water use efficiency, and the new research says that globally, it has stalled. Previously, many scientists thought that in the face of rising emissions water use efficiency would increase, according to the study’s lead authors, because higher atmospheric carbon concentration would mean more carbon would enter stomata. “But what we show is different,” said study coauthor Jingfeng Xiao, an Earth systems scientist at the University of New Hampshire. “The global average plant water use efficiency has stabilized.” That’s because carbon emissions don’t happen in a vacuum; they happen in a complex system. “Not only is carbon dioxide increasing, temperature is increasing, air is becoming drier, and this is where vapor pressure deficit comes in,” said Vivek Arora, a climate scientist at Environment and Climate Change Canada who was not involved in the study ... when plants close or mostly close their stomata, they also reduce their ability to take up carbon ... rising vapor pressure deficits would force plants to keep their stomata closed to conserve water, potentially limiting how much carbon plants take in. The new results indicated that the trillions of plants making up the terrestrial biome began doing that more than 20 years ago, girding against water loss wrought by climate change.
https://eos.org/articles/plants-worldwide-reach-a-stomata-stalemate
reporting on a study at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adf5041Buying Home and Auto Insurance Is Becoming Impossible
Insurers are coming off some of their worst years in history ... Warmer temperatures have made storms worse and contributed to droughts that have elevated wildfire risk ... Climate change also has made it harder for insurers to measure their risks, pushing some to demand even higher premiums to cushion against future losses ... Homeowners and drivers are facing sharply rising premiums, less coverage and fewer, if any, choices of insurer. In some places the only options are bare bones coverage or none at all. That can make homes worth less and harder to sell ... State Farm racked up $13 billion in property-casualty underwriting losses in 2022, its worst ever ... “Climate change will destabilize the global insurance industry,” research firm Forrester Research predicted in a fall report. Increasingly extreme weather will make it harder for insurance companies to model and predict exposures, accurately calculate reserves, offer coverage and pay claims, the report said. As a result, Forrester forecast, “more insurers will leave markets besides the high-stakes states like California, Florida, and Louisiana.” Allstate CEO Wilson said: “There will be insurance deserts ... I don’t think it’s like the insurance industry said, we’re done here, you’re on your own. It’s just, there are certain places where if we can’t spread the cost appropriately and we can’t price it, then we shouldn’t do it.” Insurance agents and analysts said many insurers are “quiet quitting” high-risk areas rather than face the public relations or regulatory fallout from an official exit ... insurers are bracing for a tough future. “There is no place that’s safe, and no place that’s not going to be impacted.”
https://www.wsj.com/business/insurance-home-auto-rate-increases-climate-change-03b806f3
also at https://archive.ph/MqPcf24,000-year-old animal found alive, well and ready to reproduce
For the past 24,000 years, the [bdelloid rotifer] multicellular microorganism had been snoozing in Siberian permafrost, having become frozen in the Arctic ice right around the same time in history that humans first ventured into North America during the Upper Paleolithic era ... Not only did the animal come back to life from its frozen nap, but it also successfully cloned itself multiple times with an asexual reproduction form known as parthenogenesis ... “The takeaway is that a multicellular organism can be frozen and stored as such for thousands of years and then return back to life” ... Previously, a pair of prehistoric nematode, otherwise known as roundworms, were discovered and successfully revived in Russia. The worms were dated to have been between 30,000 and 42,000 years old. Similarly, numerous prehistoric plants and mosses have successfully regenerated after many thousands of years trapped in the ice, the press release said. However, none of the previously discovered specimens were nearly as complex as the bdelloid rotifer.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/24000-year-old-animal-found-alive-siberian-permafrost/961074
reporting on a study at https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(21)00624-2Snow is disappearing as the planet warms
A new study published on Wednesday shows that the human-caused climate crisis has reduced snowpack in most parts of the Northern Hemisphere in the last 40 years, threatening crucial water resources for millions of people ... Wednesday’s study, published by researchers at Dartmouth College in the journal Nature, offers the big picture — climate change has caused significant drops in snow in the world’s north since the 1980s. Areas in the US Southwest and Northeast, as well as in Central and Eastern Europe, have experienced the steepest global warming-related declines of between 10% and 20% per decade. “It’s very clear that climate change has been having negative impacts on snow and water,” said Alexander Gottlieb, lead author of the study ... Many of the world’s water supplies are already threatened by climate change through drought and heat waves that are becoming more frequent and intense. As the planet continues to warm, the study found that many highly populated areas that rely on snow are going to see increased losses in water availability ... “Most of the world’s people live in river basins that are at this precipice of falling off an accelerating snow-loss cliff, whereby every additional degree of warming means greater and greater snowpack loss.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/10/climate/snow-loss-northern-hemisphere-study-climate/index.html
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06794-yAvian influenza or 'bird flu' has devastated wildlife across South America. Antarctica could be next
The highly contagious and deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu has been tearing a path of devastation across South America ... there are concerns the disease may have finally reached the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula, on the western side of the continent. "The impact will potentially be catastrophic," Michelle Wille, a senior research fellow at the Centre for Pathogen Genomics at the University of Melbourne, said. Preventing its further spread across the frozen continent — including the vast section in the east claimed by Australia — is near impossible. "In South America, the virus travelled the entire 6,000-kilometre spine in about six months," Dr Wille said. As a member for the Antarctic Wildlife Health Network, Dr Wille is bracing for avian influenza's anticipated spread across the vast icy wilderness.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-01-08/antarctic-bird-flu-h5n1-threat-scientists-fear-worst/103287708Sea of methane sealed beneath Arctic permafrost could trigger climate feedback loop if it escapes
"At present, the leakage from below permafrost is very low, but factors such as glacial retreat and permafrost thawing may 'lift the lid' on this in the future," lead author Thomas Birchall, a geologist at the University Center in Svalbard in Norway, said in a statement ... Should this permafrost seal disintegrate, it could set off a chain reaction in which the methane's strong warming effect would thaw more permafrost and release even more gas [which] would further accelerate warming, melting and methane emissions, the researchers warned in the study ... The researchers found deposits rich in methane are much more common than thought on the islands. Given that the archipelago has a similar geological and glacial history to the rest of the Arctic region, the same could be true of other permafrost-covered locations near the North Pole, the statement said. The permafrost seal on Svalbard isn't uniform, the study found [and] permafrost that is leak-proof now might not stay that way.
https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/arctic/sea-of-methane-sealed-beneath-arctic-permafrost-could-trigger-climate-feedback-loop-if-it-escapes
reporting on a study at https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2023.1277027/fullAlaska's snow crab season canceled for second year in a row as population fails to rebound
The crisis first began in early 2022, after biologists discovered an estimated 10 billion crabs disappeared — a 90% plunge in the population ... A recent survey of the species showed little sign of a rebound. "Environmental conditions are changing rapidly ... We've seen warm conditions in the Bering Sea the last couple of years, and we're seeing a response in a cold-adapted species, so it's pretty obvious this is connected. It is a canary in a coal mine for other species that need cold water." According to new research from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a marine heat wave linked to climate change impacted the snow crabs' food supply and drove them to starvation.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/alaska-snow-crab-season-canceled-2024/Next Year Likely to Surpass 2023 as the Hottest Ever
With climate change and an incipient El Niño driving up temperatures, 2024 is likely to eclipse 2023 as the hottest year ever, meteorologists project. According to the World Meteorological Organization, the first 10 months of this year measured 1.40 degrees C warmer than the preindustrial [1850-1900 average] baseline ... Next year is likely to surpass 2023 as the hottest ever, according to the U.K. Met Office, which projects that 2024 will likely measure 1.46 degrees C warmer than preindustrial times, but could conclude up to 1.58 degrees C warmer.
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/2024-hottest-year
reporting on a study at https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/2023-shatters-climate-records-major-impacts2023 Will Officially Be the Hottest Year on Record, Scientists Say
2023 will end up being the warmest year in recorded history, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). Through the end of November, the global average temperature for the year is 0.13 degrees Celsius higher than for the first eleven months of 2016, which is currently the warmest year on record, the service reports. This year’s global mean temperature so far is also 1.46 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average between 1850 and 1900 ... “As long as greenhouse gas concentrations keep rising, we can’t expect different outcomes from those seen this year,” Carlo Buontempo, C3S director, says in a statement. “The temperature will keep rising and so will the impacts of heatwaves and droughts.”
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/2023-will-officially-be-the-hottest-year-on-record-scientists-say-180983389/How to describe 2023 in two words? Global boiling.
The last time anyone experienced a year as warm as this one, mastodons and giant sloths roamed across North America during the beginning of the late Pleistocene. Heavy rains forced nearly 700,000 people to flee their homes in Somalia after years of drought; Hurricane Otis, a storm that rapidly escalated into a Category 5, slammed into Mexico, destroying the homes of roughly 580,000 people; and an avalanche triggered an outburst from a melting glacial lake in the Himalayas in northeast India ... For a stretch in early July, the planet snapped its all-time daily heat record four times, one day after another. It added up to the hottest week ever recorded in what became the hottest summer ever recorded. Then, September broke its previous monthly heat record by half a degree Celsius — a margin so stunning that Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist, declared it “absolutely gobsmackingly bananas.”
https://grist.org/words-of-the-year/grist-2023-words-year-language-global-boiling-aqi/Red alert in Antarctica: the year rapid, dramatic change hit climate scientists like a ‘punch in the guts’
Study after study showed the breakdown of climate systems taking place much earlier than foreseen, with potentially catastrophic results When Abram was here a decade ago there was a mass of ice floating off the coast. It’s a vastly altered scene when she looks out the window now. “There’s no sea ice at all” ... The southern continent has suffered dramatic shifts ... transformations linked to the climate crisis have started much sooner than it was assumed was likely ... parts of [east Antarctica] – the coldest place on Earth – last year recording what scientists think is [Earth's] biggest heatwave ever recorded ... The director of the Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, Matt King, says the changes in the ice and ocean had made it a year in which “even the scientists have been sobered ... people have really been alarmed ... we have seen processes that we thought might play out in the middle of the century playing out much sooner” ... Tony Press, a former head of the Australian Antarctic Division, says “[there is] a very, very high chance that sea ice in Antarctica has moved into a new state ... You would not be an alarmist if you said you were really worried about that.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/31/red-alert-in-antarctica-the-year-rapid-dramatic-change-hit-climate-scientists-like-a-punch-in-the-gutsGeese hatching eggs in winter? Experts concerned climate change is reshaping wildlife
Environment expert says animals giving birth in December is troubling sign of climate change worsening
Brian Salt, director of Wildlife Rehabilitation at Salthaven in London, Ont., said he's been seeing a lot of strange wildlife behaviour in the last few months. "Eastern gray squirrels in this area, at least in southwestern Ontario, have had not two litters as they normally do spring and fall, but this year they had three and I've never seen that before," said Salt. He's also never seen geese hatch eggs in December in the last 40 years that he's worked as a wildlife expert. But Salt is keeping an eye on the newborn London, Ont., goslings to help them survive the winter. "Here we are in December and we've got goslings that are about a week old" ... Gordon McBean, professor emeritus in geography and environment at Western University, fears the two little goslings may be a sign of a bigger issue on the horizon. "The temperature is changing at a rate much more rapidly than has historically been the case," said McBean. "[This] confuses the animals.... Their biology is such that they respond to certain temperature conditions, and they're thinking it's spring."
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/london/geese-winter-goslings-experts-concerned-climate-change-wildlife-1.7071271Antarctic melt season off to fast start; Greenland 2023 melt season review
Antarctic Ice Sheet had above average melt in the Amery and Dronning Maud Land Ice Shelf regions, with significant melting on the Antarctic Peninsula. Greenland’s 2023 melt season was the third highest on record with persistent high melt extents in late June through mid-July, with a late August melt spike.
https://nsidc.org/ice-sheets-today/analyses/antarctic-melt-season-fast-start-greenland-2023-melt-season-reviewMinnesota Ice Festival canceled due to warm weather
Organizers of the 2024 Minnesota Ice Festival decided to cancel this year's event due to the warm winter weather. Temperatures look well above average for the next week or so, with days in the 40s, which is roughly 13 degrees above average ... The unseasonably warm temperatures have also pushed other winter businesses and activities to adjust their plans. Bait and tackle shops are suffering because there isn't enough ice on lakes for people to go ice fishing yet. Outdoor ice rinks around the metro also haven't been able to open.
https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/minnesota-ice-festival-canceled-due-to-warm-weatherWhy Are Alaska’s Rivers Turning Orange?
Streams in Alaska are turning orange with iron and sulfuric acid
One of the most remote and undisturbed rivers in America, the Salmon has long been renowned for its unspoiled nature. Now, however, the Salmon is quite literally rusting. Tributary streams along one third of the 110-kilometer river are full of oxidized iron minerals and, in many cases, acid. “It was a famous, pristine river ecosystem,” Sullivan said, “and it feels like it's completely collapsing now.” The same thing is happening to rivers and streams throughout the Brooks Range—at least 75 of them in the past five to 10 years—and probably in Russia and Canada as well. Scientists who have studied these rusting rivers agree that the ultimate cause is climate change. Kobuk Valley National Park has warmed by 2.4 degrees Celsius (4.32 degrees Fahrenheit) since 2006 and could get another 10.2 degrees C hotter by 2100, a greater increase than projected for any other national park. The heat may already have begun to thaw 40 percent of the park's permafrost ... When Sullivan dipped a sensor into the [water sample] bottle, it showed a pH of 2.95, like vinegar. The burn was from acid. “If it's got that low of a pH ... it's actively burning,” Sullivan said ... Lyons thinks permafrost thaw is lifting the icy lid off the bedrock, allowing oxygenated water to reach pyrite-rich shale for the first time in thousands of years. That's forming sulfuric acid and oxidizing the leftover iron, which would normally precipitate out of the water as rust. The acidity dissolves the oxidized iron, allowing it to flow with the ground seep just as reduced iron does ... What's really scary is that the acid might also be leaching out other metals, such as copper, zinc, cadmium, lead and even arsenic, that are then carried far downstream. Mining areas often hold enough sulfide minerals to fuel these reactions for millennia.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-are-alaskas-rivers-turning-orange/Amazon drought: 'We've never seen anything like this'
The Amazon rainforest experienced its worst drought on record in 2023. Many villages became unreachable by river, wildfires raged and wildlife died. Some scientists worry events like these are a sign that the world's biggest forest is fast approaching a point of no return ... Many scientists fear the forest is racing towards a theoretical tipping point - a point where it dries, breaks apart and becomes a savannah. As it stands, the Amazon creates a weather system of its own. In the vast rainforest, water evaporates from the trees to form rain clouds which travel over the tree canopy, recycling this moisture five or six times. This keeps the forest cool and hydrated, feeding it the water it needs to sustain life. But if swathes of the forest die, that mechanism could be broken. And once this happens there may be no going back.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-67751685Hurricanes Are Now Made of Microplastics
Hurricane Larry dropped over 100,000 microplastics per square meter of land per day. It’s another ominous sign of how plasticized the environment has become.
As Hurricane Larry curved north in the Atlantic in 2021 a special instrument was waiting for it on the coast of Newfoundland. Scientists wondered whether such a storm could pick up microplastics from the sea [and] Larry was literally a perfect storm: it hadn’t touched land ... As humanity churns out exponentially more plastic in general, so does the environment get contaminated with exponentially more microplastics. The predominant thinking used to be that microplastics would flush into the ocean and stay there [but] recent research has found that the seas are in fact burping the particles into the atmosphere to blow back onto land ... The team found that even before and after Larry, tens of thousands of microplastics fell per square meter of land per day. But when the hurricane hit, that figure spiked up to 113,000 ... These new figures from Newfoundland are also likely to be significant underestimates—and necessarily so. It remains difficult and expensive to look for the smallest of plastic particles: This research searched for bits as small as 1.2 microns (1.2 millionths of a meter), but there were likely way, way more pieces of plastic smaller than that falling into the instrument. “From previous studies, we know that there’s an exponential curve for particle numbers as you go smaller,” says University of Birmingham microplastic researcher Steve Allen, coauthor of the new paper. “So we’ve been talking about 113,000 particles per square meter a day of big stuff. It just must be staggering, what is smaller.” The researchers could also determine what kinds of plastic had fallen out of the sky. “We saw not an overwhelming amount of one certain polymer—there’s a real variety,” says Ryan ... “It’s becoming quite clear that the ocean-to-atmosphere exchange is a very real thing,” says Allen. “And the numbers in this paper here are just staggering.”
https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/12/hurricane-larry-dumped-100000-microplastics-per-sq-meter-on-newfoundland-each-day/
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-01115-7Plastics, pesticides and pills: how chemical exposures affect sperm health
Last year, a team of international researchers published a global review which revealed that sperm concentrations in semen have been freefalling for the last 50 years. From 1973 to 2018, sperm declined at a rate of 1.2% up to 2000, accelerating to 2.6% annually thereafter. Their ultimate finding was stark: sperm counts have fallen by half ... a study led by Andreas Kortenkamp, a professor of human toxicology at Brunel University offered a first of its kind evaluation of the impact of chemicals found in everyday plastics on sperm concentration and count. This research delved into the “chemical cocktail” present in plastics [and generated] a ranking of known top offenders: bisphenol A and its substitutes, which are found in many types of plastic food containers and in the linings of cans; phthalates, another additive, and polychlorinated dioxins, a type of “forever chemical” produced by burning plastic. Researchers determined that common products and environmental contamination expose humans to these chemicals at levels up to 100 times higher than what is deemed safe, putting us at risk of endocrine disruption and related issues with reproductive health, metabolism and immune function ... Kortenkamp is reluctant to pin responsibility to avoid these chemicals on individuals. “The problem is that the pollution with these chemicals is so widespread that it’s virtually impossible by individual avoidance to reduce your exposure,” he says, pointing out that BPA, which disrupts the endocrine system because it mimics the sex hormone estrogen, is present in everyday food items ... the associations between pesticide exposure and sperm health are “enduring and strong”, says Dr Melissa Perry, dean of the college of public health at George Mason University (GMU) [and] because pesticides bioaccumulate, or build up through the food chain, animal products also contain them in high levels [and] as with the chemicals in plastic, it’s hard to completely avoid these toxins on an individual level.
https://www.theguardian.com/wellness/2023/dec/19/chemicals-affecting-sperm-reproductive-health-infertility
reporting on a study at https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412022002495Our ongoing fertility crisis is leading to a future where only the rich can reproduce
From plummeting sperm counts to ovarian disorders, human fertility is at risk.
Average human sperm count has roughly halved, plummeting from 99 million per milliliter to 47 million per milliliter between 1973 and 2011. Swan is not alone in reaching this conclusion. Hagai Levine, professor of epidemiology at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, found that sperm counts fell an average of 1.2% every year between 1973 to 2018, from 104 to 49 million/ml. As of 2000, the rate of decline increased to more than 2.6% for every year. What's causing this trend? It's most likely environmental pollution, especially endocrine disruptors, or chemicals that can interfere with the proper functioning of our hormones. In her book, Swan focused on the endocrine disruptors widely used in plastics. There is no realistic way that we will ever remove all of these endocrine disruptors from our environment, at least not any time soon ... Dr. Swan examined phthalates, bisphenols and other plastic pollutants. As Swan told Salon in 2021, if these chemicals interfere with male fetal development at the "delicately programmed time" during which they develop their reproductive system, the eventual adult will suffer with issues like inadequate sperm count. Plastic items containing these chemicals are literally everywhere: From medical tubing and automobile parts to beverage containers and vinyl flooring, from the packaging containing our products to the fish we eat from the ocean (thanks, microplastics). Women are not spared from endocrine disruptors either. An August study in the journal Frontiers in Physiology found that microplastics and nanoplastics seem to have a harmful effect on the reproductive systems of females in multiple other species, not just humans ... chemicals from plastics are not alone in disrupting our endocrine system. They are only one ingredient in a toxic stew that is literally hitting us in our collective gonads. According to a recent study in the journal Environmental Health Perspectives, common chemicals in pesticides like organophosphates and N-methyl carbamates are linked to plummeting sperm counts. “PFAS can disrupt our reproductive hormones and have been linked with delayed puberty onset and increased risks for endometriosis and polycystic ovary syndrome in few previous studies. What our study adds is that PFAS may also decrease fertility in women who are generally healthy and are naturally trying to conceive,” senior author Damaskini Valvi, an assistant professor of environmental medicine and public health at Icahn Mount Sinai and a nationally recognized expert on the dangers of PFAS, said in a statement. “We also know that PFAS exposure begins in utero and transfers from the mother to the fetus, as many PFAS have been detected in cord blood, the placenta, and breast milk. Preventing exposure to PFAS is therefore essential to protect women’s health as well as the health of their children.”
https://www.salon.com/2023/12/12/our-ongoing-fertility-is-leading-to-a-future-where-only-the-rich-can-reproduce/Scottish climate changing faster than expected, new research says
The James Hutton Institute has warned that weather changes that were expected to be seen over the next three decades are already happening
Research carried out by the James Hutton Institute in Aberdeen says average February temperatures have already reached some projections for 2050 [and] increases in winter rainfall have also already exceeded projections for 2050. The James Hutton Institute carried out the research on behalf of the Scottish Government. It comes as the UK, including Scotland, faced its hottest June on record and July was recorded as the world’s hottest month. The daily global sea surface temperature also broke records at the beginning of August ... The research was given to the Scottish Government in two separate reports titled Climate Trends and Future Projections in Scotland and Climate Extremes in Scotland.
https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/scottish-aberdeen-cabinet-secretary-scottish-government-parliament-b2466265.htmlGlobal Tipping Points Report
Global Tipping Points is led by Professor Tim Lenton from the University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute with the support of more than 200 researchers from over 90 organisations in 26 countries. The report is an authoritative assessment of the risks and opportunities of both negative and positive tipping points in the Earth system and society ... Five major tipping systems are already at risk of crossing tipping points at the present level of global warming: the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, warm-water coral reefs, North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre circulation, and permafrost regions ... Triggering one Earth system tipping point could trigger another, causing a domino effect of accelerating and unmanageable damage. Tipping points show that the overall threat posed by the climate and ecological crisis is far more severe than is commonly understood.
https://global-tipping-points.org/West Antarctica Glacier's Retreat Unstoppable: Study Says Tipping Point Crossed
The speed of [Pine Island] glacier's retreat and the rate that is has been losing ice has led to concerns about how stable the region is. Model results show that this region of west Antarctica could collapse in the future. If it does, then it could raise global mean sea level by several metres ... When glaciers, like those in west Antarctica, experience a small retreat due to some change in the climate, they can continue retreating even if the change is reversed. Essentially, the glacier gets pushed beyond a tipping point, whereby it experiences rapid mass loss until it reaches a new state. This kind of retreat is irreversible because the change in climate needed for the glacier to recover its original position is much greater than what initially caused it to retreat.
https://www.sciencealert.com/west-antarctica-glaciers-retreat-unstoppable-study-says-tipping-point-crossedThree Antarctic glaciers show rapidly accelerated ice loss from ocean warming
Several Antarctic glaciers are undergoing dramatic acceleration and ice loss. Hektoria Glacier, the worst affected, has quadrupled its sliding speed and lost 25 kilometers of ice off its front in just 16 months, scientists say. The rapid retreat “is really unheard of,” says Mathieu Morlighem, a glaciologist at Dartmouth College who was not part of the team reporting these findings. The collapse was triggered by unusually warm ocean temperatures, which caused sea ice to retreat. This allowed a series of large waves to hit a section of coastline that is normally shielded from them. “What we’re seeing here is an indication of what could happen elsewhere” in Antarctica, says Naomi Ochwat, a glaciologist at the University of Colorado Boulder who presented the findings December 11 at the American Geophysical Union meeting ... people trying to predict sea level rise need to consider sea ice, Morlighem says. Up until now, “its role in [glacier] dynamics has been completely ignored.”
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/3-antarctic-glaciers-rapid-loss-climate-changeWarmest Arctic summer on record is evidence of accelerating climate change
NOAA’s 2023 Arctic Report Card documents new records showing that human-caused warming of the air, ocean and land is affecting people, ecosystems and communities across the Arctic region, which is heating up faster than any other part of the world. Summer surface air temperatures during 2023 were the warmest ever observed in the Arctic, while the highest point on Greenland’s ice sheet experienced melting for only the fifth time in the 34-year record.
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/warmest-arctic-summer-on-record-is-evidence-of-accelerating-climate-change
reporting on a study at https://arctic.noaa.gov/report-card/report-card-2023/Hottest Survivable Temperatures Are Lower Than Expected
Researchers say the primary “wet-bulb temperature” method for measuring dangerous heat underestimates deaths
A recent paper published in Nature Communications found that the primary methodology to measure deadly heat — called “wet-bulb global temperature” — is inadequate, resulting in artificially low mortality estimates from extreme heat events. A "wet-bulb" reading of 95 F degrees [35C wetbulb] is considered the limit for human survivability over six hours of unshaded outdoor exposure. Wet-globe readings account for a combination of air temperature, relative humidity, sun angle, cloud cover and wind speed. But the study found that millions of Americans, particularly elderly and health-compromised individuals, could die at web-bulb temperatures much lower than 95 F, particularly as humidity increases and other human factors come into play. A healthy young adult, for example, could die after six hours of exposure to a 92 F temperature with 50 percent humidity, according to the study. A healthy elderly person could die at 91 F under the same humidity levels. The ASU researchers say the wet-bulb survivability threshold does not account for real-world conditions. It assumes the exposed person is fully sedentary, unclothed and lacks any health-risk factors like body mass index or heart health. “What we see globally is how much different the physiological effects of heat are than what’s been assumed for the last decade,” Jennifer Vanos, a senior scientist at the ASU’s Global Futures Laboratory and lead author of the paper, said.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/hottest-survivable-temperatures-are-lower-than-expected/
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-43121-5Natural gas is migrating under permafrost, and could see methane emissions skyrocket if it escapes
Beneath Svalbard's permafrost, millions of cubic meters of methane are trapped—and scientists have now learned that it can migrate beneath the cold seal of the permafrost and escape. A large-scale escape could create a cycle of warming that would send methane emissions skyrocketing: warming thaws the permafrost, causing more gas to escape, allowing more permafrost to thaw and more gas to be released. Because Svalbard's geological and glacial history is very similar to the rest of the Arctic region, these migrating deposits of methane are likely to be present elsewhere in the Arctic.
https://phys.org/news/2023-12-natural-gas-migrating-permafrost-methane.html
reporting on a study at https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2023.1277027/fullResearchers: Frozen methane under the seabed is thawing as oceans warm, and things are worse than we thought
[More] methane hydrate is vulnerable to warming than previously thought. This is a worry as that hydrate contains about as much carbon as all of the remaining oil and gas on Earth. Releasing it from the seabed could cause the oceans to become more acidic and the climate to warm further ... venting of methane from similar ancient marine hydrate reservoirs has been linked to some of the severest and most rapid climate changes in the Earth's history ... Around continents, where the oceans are relatively shallow, hydrate is only just cold enough to remain frozen. So it is very vulnerable to any warming, and that is why these areas have been the focus of most scientific investigations [but] only 3.5% of the world's hydrate resides in the vulnerable zone, in this precarious state. Most hydrate is instead deemed to be "safe," buried hundreds of meters below the seabed in deeper waters tens of kilometers further from land. But frozen methane in the deep ocean may vulnerable after all. In oceans and seas where the water is deeper than around 450 meters to 700 meters are layer upon layer of sediment that contains the hydrate. And some of it is deeply buried and warmed geothermally by the Earth so, despite being hundreds of meters below the seafloor, it is right at the point of instability.
https://phys.org/news/2023-12-frozen-methane-seabed-oceans-worse.html
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-023-01333-wRapidly retreating Arctic glaciers are triggering the release of ancient methane. Here's why scientists are worried.
Hundreds of groundwater springs have appeared in the Arctic, and scientists are worried they are belching vast amounts of ancient methane into the atmosphere. The springs were exposed by retreating glaciers in Svalbard, a Norwegian archipelago in the Arctic Ocean. Researchers at the University of Cambridge believe the methane is millions of years old, seeping out from a large reserve of underground gas. This suggests a lot of greenhouse gas could still be released into the atmosphere — something that hasn't been accounted for in existing climate models ... Researchers retrieved water from 123 springs in Svalbard between 2021 and 2022. In 122 of these, they found superconcentrated methane. Their analysis suggests this methane comes from reserves of gas spawning from shale rock underlying the glaciers. The findings were published in Nature Geoscience on Thursday ... The glaciers had been acting as plugs to trap the methane in ancient rock. As [they retreat] methane trapped deep in the ground made its way to the surface.
https://www.businessinsider.com/retreating-arctic-glaciers-are-triggering-the-release-of-ancient-methane-2023-7
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-023-01210-6Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels to hit record high
Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels reached record levels again in 2023, as experts warned that the projected rate of warming had not improved over the past two years. The world is on track to have burned more coal, oil and gas in 2023 than it did in 2022 ... “Two years after Glasgow, our report is virtually the same,” said Claire Stockwell, an analyst at Climate Analytics and lead author of the CAT report. “You would think the extreme events around the world would be sparking action but governments appear oblivious, somehow thinking treading water will deal with the flood of impacts.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/05/global-carbon-emissions-fossil-fuels-recordGlobal marine life is on the move due to sea temperature rises, says study
In the ocean, tropical species are moving from the equator towards the poles as sea temperatures rise. Meanwhile, temperate species are receding as it gets too warm, they face increased competition for habitat, and new predators arrive on the scene, among other factors. This mass movement of marine life, termed tropicalization, is changing the ecological landscape of our oceans and leading to a cascade of consequences ... In recent years, climate change has altered the physical factors that affect species dispersal, such as ocean currents in areas that separate tropical/subtropical and temperate regions. These warm-water boundary currents are heating faster than the global seawater average, facilitating the poleward movement of species, and reinforcing the retraction of temperate species.
https://phys.org/news/2023-11-global-marine-life-due-sea.html
reporting on a study at https://www.cell.com/trends/ecology-evolution/fulltext/S0169-5347(23)00273-2CO2 storage by corporate lobbies is not in line with science
More than 80 percent of lobbying efforts go against science. There are three major, recurring claims that companies use in their lobbying for CO2 storage ... By simultaneously insisting on CO2 storage, companies often continue to promote the use of fossil fuels. Companies also claim that CO2 storage is the most important way to achieve climate goals and they argue that capturing CO2 contributes to creating employment. The organization examined 750 lobbying attempts for CO2 capture and storage, also known as CCS. Previously, the fossil sector tried to undermine people's trust in the science surrounding the causes of climate change, said one of the researchers. “But now the focus has shifted to spreading confusion about the science surrounding the solutions to climate change.” It is mainly oil and gas companies that lobby for CO2 capture. Shell, ExxonMobil, BP, and Occidental Petroleum, among others, promote the technology through advertising campaigns, PR, or lobbying policymakers. The IPCC has determined that storing CO2 emissions will only play a limited role in the transition to sustainable energy and that the use of fossil fuels must be significantly reduced to achieve the international climate goals for 2030.
https://nltimes.nl/2023/12/03/think-tank-co2-storage-corporate-lobbies-line-scienceFuture floods: Global warming intensifies heavy rain – even more than expected
The intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall increases exponentially with global warming, a new study finds. The analysis by researchers from the Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research (PIK) shows that state-of-the-art climate models significantly underestimate how much extreme rainfall increases under global warming – meaning that extreme rainfall could increase quicker than climate models suggest. “Our study confirms that the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall extremes are increasing exponentially with every increment of global warming,” explains Max Kotz, lead-author of the study.
https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/future-floods-global-warming-intensifies-heavy-rain-2013-even-more-than-expected
reporting on a study at https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/aop/JCLI-D-23-0492.1/JCLI-D-23-0492.1.xmlScientists track rapid retreat of Antarctic glacier
Scientists are warning that apparently stable glaciers in the Antarctic can "switch very rapidly" and lose large quantities of ice as a result of warmer oceans. The researchers have published their analysis, "Ocean warming drives rapid dynamic activation of marine-terminating glacier on the west Antarctic Peninsula," in Nature Communications ... Surrounded by warmer ocean waters, the scientists believe the ice shelf thinned and became ungrounded, and the ice shelf was no longer able to hold back the glacier. As a result, the speed at which the glacier was flowing rapidly accelerated. "We were surprised to see the speed at which Cadman went from being an apparently stable glacier to one where we see sudden deterioration and significant ice loss" ... the researchers say what has happened to the Cadman Glacier can be seen as an example of a "glaciological tipping point," where a system in a steady state can take one [of] two paths based on a change in an environmental parameter [and] other glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula may be vulnerable to similar sudden changes.
https://phys.org/news/2023-11-scientists-track-rapid-retreat-antarctic.html
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-42970-4Recalibration of limits to growth: an update of the World3 model
This paper recalibrates the 2005 World3‐03 model. The input parameters are changed to better match empirical data ... This improved parameter set results in a World3 simulation that shows the same overshoot and collapse mode in the coming decade as the original business as usual scenario of the LtG standard run. The main effect of the recalibration update is to raise the peaks of most variables and move them a few years into the future.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jiec.13442
see also 'Limits to Growth' entries elsewhere on this pageOil and gas industry needs to let go of carbon capture as solution to climate change, IEA says
The industry needs to let go of the “illusion” that carbon capture technology is a solution to climate change
One of the major pitfalls in the energy transition is excessive reliance on carbon capture, according to the report ... An “inconceivable” 32 billion tons of carbon would need to be captured for utilization or storage by 2050 to limit climate change to 1.5 degrees Celsius under current projections for oil and gas consumption, according to the IEA. The necessary technology would require 26,000 terawatt hours of electricity to operate in 2050, more than total global demand in 2022, according to the IEA. It would also require $3.5 trillion in annual investment from today through mid-century, which equivalent to the entire oil and gas industry’s annual revenue in recent years, according to the report.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/23/oil-and-gas-industry-needs-to-let-go-of-carbon-capture-as-solution-to-climate-change-iea-says.htmlExposure to widely used insecticides decreases sperm concentration, study finds
Study’s author says ‘we need to reduce exposure in order to ensure men who want to conceive are able to without interference’
Exposure to several widely used insecticides probably decreases sperm concentration and may have profound effects on male fertility, new US research finds. The George Mason University paper analyzed five decades of peer-reviewed studies to determine if organophosphates and carbamate-based pesticides exposure correlated with decreased sperm concentration [and found] what co-author Melissa Perry, dean of the George Mason College of Public Health, characterized as a “strong association” ... The findings come amid growing concern over global declines in sperm concentration and quality. Recent research estimated sperm concentration has plummeted by about 50% over the last 50 years, and Perry said the insecticides could represent a piece of that puzzle ... The chemicals appear to [act as endocrine disruptors to] interfere with the human endocrine system’s hormone production, she said, which would “have a direct impact on how much and how normally sperm is produced”. The chemicals may also damage testes cells and alter neurotransmission in the brain related to reproductive purposes.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/24/insecticides-decrease-sperm-concentration-study-findsPrenatal exposure to air pollution may hurt reproductive health in adult men, study finds
In-utero exposure to common air pollutants may lower semen quality and increase the risk of reproductive system disease in men, new research finds. The peer-reviewed Rutgers University [found] a marker of reproductive health related to [endocrine disruptor] hormone levels, lower semen quality, fertility and reproductive disorders, and the research identified a likely link between it and exposure to the pollutants ... The findings come amid growing concern over global drops in semen quality, which have so far been tied to exposure to other toxins like PFAS and phthalates. Sperm concentration levels have dropped by 51% in recent decades, and the Rutgers study is among the first “to suggest that the air around is contributing to that, as well”, Barrett added ... “Testosterone is really important for the development of the male reproductive system, and anything that disrupts that normal testosterone surge during gestation has the potential to then have a cascade of effects that impacts all future reproductive development.”
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2023/nov/25/air-pollution-impacting-pregnancy-mens-reproductive-healthNew maps show where snowfall is disappearing
Snowfall is declining globally as temperatures warm because of human-caused climate change, a new analysis and maps from a NOAA climate scientist show. But less snow falling from the sky isn’t as innocuous as just having to shovel less; it threatens to reinforce warming, and disrupt food and water for billions of people. Climate scientists say the future of snowfall is pretty clear: A warmer world driven by human pollution means precipitation is more likely to fall as rain than snow ... A 2015 study by Mankin found 2 billion people who rely on melting snow for water are at risk of snow declines of up to 67%. This includes parts of South Asia, which rely on Himalayan snowmelt; the Mediterranean, including Spain, Italy and Greece; and parts of North Africa like Morocco, which rely on snowmelt from the Atlas mountains ... “To the extent that any of these places are managing water for the status quo — global warming is taking that status quo away,” Mankin said. “To the extent that our infrastructure and our management practices are hard coded to a historical climate — that stuff is irrelevant to the climate that is unfolding.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/25/weather/snowfall-temperatures-climate-change-water/index.htmlCO2 readings from Mauna Loa show failure to combat climate change Daily atmospheric carbon dioxide data from Hawaiian volcano more than double last decade’s annual average At the time of writing it is 422.36 parts per million. That is 5.06ppm more than the same day last year. That rise in 12 months is probably the largest ever recorded [and] underline the fact that after 27 annual meetings of the convention, all the efforts of nearly 200 member states to tackle the menace of the climate crisis have been a failure, so far. The situation continues to get worse ever more rapidly.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2023/nov/24/co2-readings-from-mauna-loa-show-failure-to-combat-climate-changeEarth passed a feared [2 degrees Celsius] global warming milestone Friday, at least briefly
Preliminary data show global temperatures averaged more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above a historic norm [dating] from a time before humans started consuming fossil fuels and emitting planet-warming greenhouse gases ... the climate is moving into uncharted territory. Friday marked the first time that everyday fluctuations around global temperature norms, which have been steadily increasing for decades, swung the planet beyond the dangerous threshold. It occurs after months of record warmth that have stunned many scientists, defying some expectations of how quickly temperatures would accelerate this year ... scientists said 2023 was virtually certain to surpass 2016 as the globe’s warmest on record, and likely to mark one of its warmest periods in 125,000 years [and] warming is only expected to accelerate in the coming months because of a deepening El Niño, the infamous climate pattern that drives weather extremes and raises global temperatures ... Friday’s milestone offers yet more proof of how the planet has defied climate scientists’ expectations this year.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/11/19/climate-change-2c-temperature-heat-record/2 degrees, 40 feet: Scientists who study Earth’s ice say we could be committed to disastrous sea level rise
A report released Thursday from the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative, a network of policy experts and researchers ... says if global average temperatures [reach] 2 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial baseline, the planet could be committed to more than 40 feet of sea-level rise ... a flurry of new research suggests that dangerous tipping points are nearer than once thought and that there is likely less room in Earth’s carbon budget than expected ... the scientists argue a rise in global temperatures of 2 degrees Celsius would force many to flee coastal communities. “We’re displacing millions of people with the decisions being made now,” said report author Julie Brigham-Grette, a geosciences professor at the University of Massachusetts Amherst. More than 60 scientists contributed to the report. Many are experts in their specialties, and some have worked on past reports for the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the world’s leading body on assessing the climate crisis ... scientists revealed new research that suggests the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet might already be inevitable and that Greenland’s glaciers are melting at five times the rate they were 20 years ago. Another group of scientists found that the remaining carbon budget to limit warming was far smaller than once thought.
https://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/scientists-study-earths-ice-say-committed-disastrous-sea-level-rise-rcna124981Record-breaking heat set to hit southern hemisphere as summer begins
As 2023 draws to a close, meteorologists and climate scientists are predicting weather patterns that will lead to record-high land and sea surface temperatures. These include a strong El Niño in the Pacific Ocean, and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. “Those kinds of big drivers can have a big influence on drought and extremes across the southern hemisphere,” says Ailie Gallant, a climate scientist at Monash University in Melbourne, Australia, and chief investigator for the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes ... Meanwhile, human activity continues to contribute to the levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere [and] the worst might be yet to come. Atmospheric scientist David Karoly at the University of Melbourne, who was a member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, says that the biggest impact of El Niño is likely to be felt in the summer of 2024–25.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-03547-9World facing ‘hellish’ 3C of climate heating, UN warns before Cop28
The UN Environment Programme report said that implementing future policies already promised by countries would shave [only] 0.1C off the 3C limit. Putting in place emissions cuts pledged by developing countries on condition of receiving financial and technical support would cut the temperature rise to 2.5C, still a catastrophic scenario ... The secretary general of the UN, António Guterres, has said repeatedly the world is heading for a “hellish” future. Guterres said: “Present trends are racing our planet down a dead-end 3C temperature rise. This is a failure of leadership, a betrayal of the vulnerable, and a massive missed opportunity.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/20/world-facing-hellish-3c-of-climate-heating-un-warns-before-cop28Alberta underestimates methane emissions by 50 per cent: study
The study from Carleton University’s Energy and Emissions Research Lab also says oil and gas produced in the province emit significantly more methane for the energy produced than jurisdictions such as British Columbia ... Johnson’s lab, which published its latest paper in the journal Nature Communications Earth and Environment, combined several different measuring methods [and] looked at 3,500 different oil and gas facilities and 5,600 wells. It concluded official government and industry estimates of methane emissions from Alberta’s oilpatch are 50 per cent too low.
https://globalnews.ca/news/10100317/alberta-underestimates-methane-emissions-50-per-cent-study/ampHow are people supposed to rebuild Paradise, California, when nobody can afford home insurance?
The soaring cost of home insurance has consumed the town of Paradise, residents and officials say, as it prepares to commemorate the five-year anniversary of the Nov. 8, 2018, Camp Fire. Residents have received annual premiums that near or exceed $10,000 — leaving many to wonder how they're supposed to rebuild their hard-hit community when insurance is so shockingly high for houses in an area that is supposed to be among the most affordable in California ... Neither the state Insurance Department nor a major industry lobbying group could explain the sharp price increases five years after the fire, when so many steps have been taken to protect the community against future wildfires, including initiatives to bury power lines, and clear brush and trees away from buildings ... Farmers Insurance was cited by several residents as the company that raised their premiums, but residents also said they couldn’t find other insurers offering more affordable policies.
https://apnews.com/article/paradise-camp-fire-california-home-insurance-178618d95de90f84f56748f85aa610df2023 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change
Any further delays in climate change action will increasingly threaten the health and survival of billions of people
Climate change is increasingly impacting the health and survival of people worldwide, and projections show these risks could worsen steeply with further inaction ... In 2023, the world saw the highest global temperatures in over 100,000 years, and heat records were broken in all continents ... annual heat-related deaths are projected to increase by 370% by midcentury, assuming no substantial progress on adaptation. Under such a scenario, heat-related labour loss is projected to increase by 50%, and heatwaves alone could lead to 524.9 million additional people experiencing moderate-to-severe food insecurity by 2041–60. Life-threatening infectious diseases are also projected to spread further ... These estimates provide some indication of what the future could hold. However, poor accounting for non-linear responses, tipping points, and cascading and synergistic interactions could render these projections conservative, disproportionately increasing the threat ... years of scientific warnings of the threat to people's lives have been met with grossly insufficient action, and policies to date have put the world on track to almost 3°C of heating [yet] data this year show a world that is often moving in the wrong direction. Energy-related CO2 emissions increased by 0.9% to a record 36.8 Gt in 2022, and still only 9.5% of global electricity comes from modern renewables (mainly solar and wind), despite their costs falling below that of fossil fuels. Concerningly, driven partly by record profits, oil and gas companies are further reducing their compliance with the Paris Agreement: the strategies of the world's 20 largest oil and gas companies as of early 2023 will result in emissions surpassing levels consistent with the Paris Agreement goals by 173% in 2040 — an increase of 61% from 2022 ... 78% of the countries assessed, responsible for 93% of all global CO2 emissions, still provided net direct fossil fuels subsidies totalling $305 billion, further hindering fossil fuel phase-out. Without a rapid response to course-correct, the persistent use and expansion of fossil fuels will ensure an increasingly inequitable future that threatens the lives of billions of people alive today.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(23)01859-7/fulltext
see also https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/nov/14/paying-in-lives-health-of-billions-at-risk-from-global-heating-warns-reportFaster Arctic warming hastens 2C rise by eight years
Faster warming in the Arctic will be responsible for a global 2C temperature rise being reached eight years earlier than if the region was warming at the average global rate, according to a new modelling study led by UCL researchers. The Arctic is currently warming nearly four times faster than the global average rate. The new study, published in the journal Earth System Dynamics, aimed to estimate the impact of this faster warming on how quickly the global temperature thresholds of 1.5C and 2C, set down in the Paris Agreement, are likely to be breached.
https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2023/nov/faster-arctic-warming-hastens-2c-rise-eight-yearsThe world is planning to blow the fossil fuels production limit that would keep a lid on global heating, report says
Global fossil fuel production in 2030 is set to be more than double the levels that are deemed consistent with meeting climate goals set under the 2015 Paris climate agreement, the United Nations and researchers said on Wednesday ... Under the Paris pact, nations have committed to a long-term goal of limiting average temperature rises to less than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to attempt to limit them even further to 1.5C. While scientists say fossil fuel use must be reduced to meet the goal, countries have failed to reach any international agreement set phaseout dates for unabated coal, gas or oil use ... None of the 20 countries have committed to reduce coal, oil, and gas production in line with limiting warming to 1.5°C the report said. It said 17 of the countries have pledged to reach net zero emissions but most continue to promote, subsidise, support and plan the expansion of fossil fuel production. The 20 countries analysed account for 82% of global fossil fuel production and 73% of consumption, the report said and include Australia, China, Norway, Qatar, Britain, the UAE and the United States. The report was produced by UNEP, as well as experts from the SEI, the International Institute for Sustainable Development and think-tank E3G and policy institute Climate Analytics.
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/08/climate/fossil-fuels-expansion-un-report-climate-intl/index.html
reporting on a study at https://productiongap.org/2023reportLuminous ‘mother-of-pearl’ clouds explain why climate models miss so much Arctic and Antarctic warming
Warming at the poles, especially the Arctic, has been three to four times faster than the rest of the globe ... but when tested against the past 40 years of warming, [climate] models fall short. The situation is even worse when it comes to modelling past climates with very high levels of greenhouse gases. This is a problem because these are the same models used to project into the future and forecast how the climate will change. They are likely to underestimate what will happen later this century, including risks such as ice sheet melting or permafrost thawing ... we found a special type of cloud appears over polar regions when greenhouse gas concentrations are very high. The role of this type of cloud has been overlooked so far. This is one of the reasons why our models are too cold at the poles. [These polar stratospheric clouds] form at very high altitudes (in the stratosphere) and at very low temperatures (over the poles). In the present day climate, they appear mainly over Antarctica [and] like greenhouse gases, they absorb infrared radiation emitted by the Earth’s surface and re-emit a portion of this energy [and] warm the surface. And their effect could be significant, especially in winter, when the sun does not rise. But they are difficult to simulate in a climate model, so most models ignore them. This omission could explain why climate models miss some of the polar warming, because they miss a process that warms the poles ... a few atmosphere models are finally complex enough to allow us to test [this] hypothesis. In our research we use one of them and find that under certain conditions, the additional warming due to these polar stratospheric clouds exceeds 7°C during the winter months. This significantly reduces the gap between climate models and temperature evidence from the early Eocene.
https://theconversation.com/luminous-mother-of-pearl-clouds-explain-why-climate-models-miss-so-much-arctic-and-antarctic-warming-217066
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-023-01298-wIce in Crisis: Greenland Glaciers Melting 5x Faster Than 20 Years Ago
In the largest survey of its kind ever conducted, using both satellite imagery and old aerial photos from the Danish National Archives, researchers from the University of Copenhagen firmly establish that Greenland’s glaciers are melting at an unprecedented pace. Melting has increased fivefold in the past 20 years. The study eliminates any lingering doubts about the impact of climate change on Greenland’s more than 20,000 glaciers ... “In this article, we make it clear that Greenland’s glaciers are all melting, and that things have moved exceptionally fast over the past 20 years. There is no doubt about the extent anymore and actually no reason to investigate the claim further,” says Assistant Professor Anders Bjørk from the Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management.
https://scitechdaily.com/ice-in-crisis-greenland-glaciers-melting-5x-faster-than-20-years-ago/
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01855-6Experts predict ‘catastrophic ecosystem collapse’ of UK forests within the next 50 years if action not taken
A panel comprising 42 experts, who represented a range of professions, organisations, and geographies, reached out to their networks to seek over-looked and emerging issues that were likely to affect UK forests over the next half a century ... when the issues were scored individually by the panel of experts, it was notable that ‘catastrophic forest ecosystem collapse’ was the most highly ranked issue, with 64% of experts ranking it as their top issue and 88% ranking it within their top three. ‘Catastrophic forest ecosystem collapse’ refers to multiple interrelated hazards that have a cascading effect on forests, leading to their total or partial collapse. This has already been witnessed in continental Europe and North America.
https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/experts-predict-catastrophic-ecosystem-collapse-of-uk-forests-within-the-next-50-years-if-action-notAnalysis of European Red Lists reveals major threats to biodiversity
Biodiversity is declining globally at an unprecedented rate, with around 1 million animal, fungal and plant species potentially at risk of extinction within the next few decades ... an analysis of the conservation status of 14,669 European terrestrial, freshwater and marine species [shows] that 19% of European species are threatened with extinction ... These numbers exceed recent IPBES assumptions of extinction risk. Changes in agricultural practices and associated habitat loss, overharvesting, pollution and development are major threats to biodiversity.
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0293083World behind on almost every policy required to cut carbon emissions, research finds
Countries are falling behind on almost every policy required to cut greenhouse gas emissions, despite progress on renewable energy and the uptake of electric vehicles. This failure makes the prospect of holding global temperatures to 1.5C above preindustrial levels even more remote, according to the State of Climate Action 2023 report. The prospect of staying within 1.5C will slip away altogether without drastic action, the authors warned. Sophie Boehm, research associate at the World Resources Institute and lead author of the report, said: “Global efforts to limit warming to 1.5C are lacklustre at best. Despite decades of dire warnings and wake-up calls, our leaders have largely failed to mobilise climate action anywhere near the pace and scale needed.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/14/world-behind-on-almost-every-policy-required-to-cut-carbon-emissions-research-finds
reporting on a study at https://www.wri.org/research/state-climate-action-2023Human-induced climate change increased severity of drought in Syria, Iraq and Iran
From boreal winter 2020 onwards, a large region in West Asia, encompassing the Fertile Crescent around the rivers Euphrates and Tigris as well as Iran has suffered from exceptionally low rains and elevated temperatures. The resulting 3-year drought has led to severe impacts on agriculture and access to potable water ... Scientists from Iran, the Netherlands, the UK and the US used published peer-reviewed methods [and found that] human-induced climate change has increased the intensity of such a drought such that it would not have been classified as a drought in a 1.2°C cooler world. Thus confirming that the observed finding is indeed caused by human-induced climate change.
https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/human-induced-climate-change-compounded-by-socio-economic-water-stressors-increased-severity-of-drought-in-syria-iraq-and-iran/Rapid disintegration and weakening of ice shelves in North Greenland
The glaciers of North Greenland are hosting enough ice to raise sea level by 2.1 m, and have long considered to be stable [but] we show that since 1978, ice shelves in North Greenland have lost more than 35% of their total volume, three of them collapsing completely. For the floating ice shelves that remain we observe a widespread increase in ice shelf mass losses, that are dominated by enhanced basal melting rates. Between 2000 and 2020, there was a widespread increase in basal melt rates that closely follows a rise in the ocean temperature. These glaciers are showing a direct dynamical response to ice shelf changes with retreating grounding lines and increased ice discharge ... which may have dramatic consequences for the stability of Greenlandic glaciers.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-42198-2This year 'virtually certain' to be warmest in 125,000 years
Last month smashed through the previous October temperature record, from 2019, by a massive margin, the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said. "The record was broken by 0.4 degrees Celsius, which is a huge margin," said C3S Deputy Director Samantha Burgess, who described the October temperature anomaly as "very extreme". The heat is a result of continued greenhouse gas emissions from human activity, combined with the emergence this year of the El Nino weather pattern, which warms the surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Globally, the average surface air temperature in October was 1.7 degrees Celsius warmer than the same month in 1850-1900, which Copernicus defines as the pre-industrial period. The record-breaking October means 2023 is now "virtually certain" to be the warmest year recorded, C3S said in a statement. The previous record was 2016 - another El Nino year.
https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/this-year-virtually-certain-be-warmest-125000-years-eu-scientists-say-2023-11-08Animal-to-human viral epidemics increasing
Animal-to-human viral infections have been increasing at an exponential rate, with epidemics generally becoming larger and more frequent over the past 60 years. Scientists, writing in the influential BMJ ... Human-driven changes to climate and land use, as well as population density and connectivity, are predicted to increase the frequency of animal-to-human viral spillover epidemics in the future ... “If the trend observed in this study continues, we would expect these pathogens to cause four times the number of spillover events and 12 times the number of deaths in 2050, compared with 2020. This study suggests the series of recent impactful spillover-driven epidemics are not random anomalies, but follow a multi-decade trend in which epidemics have become both larger and more frequent.”
https://cosmosmagazine.com/science/biology/animal-to-human-viral-epidemics-increasing/
reporting on a study at https://gh.bmj.com/content/8/11/e012026Famed climate scientist has a new, dire prediction
Study "Global warming in the pipeline" says temperatures will catapult into crisis territory earlier than previously thoughtThirty-five years ago, NASA climate scientist James Hansen stood in front of Congress with a bold declaration: Humans are causing an increase in greenhouse gas emissions, and it’s changing our climate. Some scoffed, but, in the decades that followed, people saw how prescient this warning was. On Thursday, Hansen and colleagues across the world released a study with another serious, though controversial, finding. Climate change will catapult global temperatures into crisis territory earlier than previously thought, the scientists said, warning that Earth is already nearing average temperatures more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial norms ... the United Nations has warned of severe and potentially irreversible consequences above that level ... [Earlier studies] may be underestimations, the new study found. Hansen and his colleagues analyzed paleoclimate data and the Earth’s energy imbalance to estimate that doubling carbon dioxide could lead to a whopping 4.8 degrees of warming compared with the preindustrial era. Under the current trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions, they predicted that the 1.5-degree benchmark will be passed in the 2020s, and 2 degrees of warming will be passed before 2050 — a markedly faster rate than the prognosis from other scientists ... “The two-degree limit can only be rescued with the help of purposeful actions to affect Earth’s energy balance,” said Hansen at the news conference. “We will need to cool off Earth to save our coastlines, coastal cities worldwide and lowlands while also addressing the other problems caused by global warming.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/11/02/james-hansen-climate-change-warning/
see also https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/02/heating-faster-climate-change-greenhouse-james-hansen
reporting on a study at https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article/3/1/kgad008/7335889Recent acceleration in global ocean heat accumulation by mode and intermediate waters
The ocean absorbs >90% of anthropogenic heat in the Earth system, moderating global atmospheric warming ... ocean heat uptake has accelerated dramatically since the 1990s, nearly doubling during 2010–2020 relative to 1990–2000 ... climate change-induced warming and freshening at the surface are projected to stratify the upper ocean, which will reduce the overturning of these water masses, in turn reducing their capacity to uptake heat. This would have profound implications for the rate of future anthropogenic climate change.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-42468-z
see also https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-21/ocean-temperature-records-2023/102701172Earth's salt cycle is swinging out of balance, posing yet another “existential threat," study finds
A recent study published in the journal Nature Reviews Earth & Environment identifies a wealth of industrial activities from construction and agriculture to water and road treatment as making the planet Earth too salty ... following a systematic review of existing studies on Earth's natural salt cycle and how it has been accelerated by human activities. They warn of an “existential threat” that could lead to a problem known as freshwater salinization syndrome, or a condition in which traditionally un-salted water is suddenly filled with the stuff. Freshwater salinization syndrome can make the water uninhabitable to creatures that previously called it home and, similarly, render it unusable for human consumption. “Twenty years ago, all we had were case studies [but] we now show that it’s a cycle — from the deep Earth to the atmosphere — that’s been significantly perturbed by human activities.”
https://www.salon.com/2023/10/31/earths-salt-cycle-is-swinging-out-of-balance-posing-yet-another-existential-threat-study-findsClimate crisis: carbon emissions budget is now tiny, scientists say
Having good chance of limiting global heating to 1.5C is gone
The carbon budget remaining to limit the climate crisis to 1.5C of global heating is now “tiny”, according to an analysis, sending a “dire” message about the adequacy of climate action. The carbon budget is the maximum amount of carbon emissions that can be released while restricting global temperature rise to the limits of the Paris agreement. The new figure is half the size of the budget estimated in 2020 and would be exhausted in six years at current levels of emissions ... To retain the 50% chance of a 1.5C limit, emissions would have to plunge to net zero by 2034, far faster than even the most radical [previous] scenarios. The current UN ambition is to cut emissions by half by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050, although existing policies are far from delivering this ambition. “Having a 50% or higher likelihood that we limit warming to 1.5C is out of the window, irrespective of how much political action and policy action there is.” The study [was] published in the journal Nature Climate Change.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/30/climate-crisis-carbon-emissions-budget
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01848-5Why many scientists are now saying climate change is an all-out ‘emergency’
Escalating rhetoric comes as new study shows there’s just six years left to keep global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius at current CO2 emissions rate.
On Monday, scientists released a paper showing that ... the world has only six years left at current emissions levels before racing past [the 1.5C] temperature limit. “There are no technical scenarios globally available in the scientific literature that would [avoid breaching 1.5C] or can even describe how that would be possible,” Joeri Rogelj, a climate scientist at Imperial College London, told reporters in a call ... Lenton said he isn’t afraid to use terms like “emergency” or “climate and ecological crisis” ... The language has spilled into academic publications as well. As recently as 2015, only 32 papers in the Web of Science research database included the term “climate emergency.” In 2022, 862 papers contained the phrase ... It wasn’t always this way. In the 2000s and even early 2010s, most scientists shied away making any statements that could be seen as 'political.' “We were actively told if we start to talk about solutions, if we start to talk about the policy implications of our work, we will have abandoned our supposed ‘scientific neutrality,’” Gill said. “And then people will not trust us anymore on the science” ... As the impacts of climate change escalate, scientists say, their language has changed to meet the moment. When it comes to terms like “climate emergency,” Gill says, “it’s a little bit of strategy and a lot of honesty.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/10/30/climate-emergency-scientists-declaration/
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01848-5The 2023 state of the climate report: Entering uncharted territory
For several decades, scientists have consistently warned of a future marked by extreme climatic conditions because of escalating global temperatures caused by ongoing human activities that release harmful greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere. Unfortunately, time is up. We are seeing the manifestation of those predictions as an alarming and unprecedented succession of climate records are broken, causing profoundly distressing scenes of suffering to unfold. We are entering an unfamiliar domain regarding our climate crisis, a situation no one has ever witnessed firsthand in the history of humanity. In the present report, we display a diverse set of vital signs of the planet and the potential drivers of climate change and climate-related responses ... The trends reveal new all-time climate-related records and deeply concerning patterns of climate-related disasters. At the same time, we report minimal progress by humanity in combating climate change ... 20 of the 35 vital signs are now showing record extremes [causing] unprecedented pressure on the Earth system, resulting in many climate-related variables entering uncharted territory ... The effects of global warming are progressively more severe, and possibilities such as a worldwide societal breakdown are feasible and dangerously underexplored.
https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/advance-article/doi/10.1093/biosci/biad080/7319571
see also https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/24/earth-vital-signs-human-history-scientists-sustainable-futureGreatly enhanced risk to humans as a consequence of empirically determined lower moist heat stress tolerance
Increased heat and humidity potentially threaten people and societies. Here, we incorporate our laboratory-measured, physiologically based wet-bulb temperature thresholds across a range of air temperatures and relative humidities, to project future heat stress risk ... using this more accurate threshold and the latest coupled climate model results, we quantify exposure to dangerous, potentially lethal heat for future climates at various global warming levels. We find that humanity is more vulnerable to moist heat stress than previously proposed because of these lower thermal limits ... Some of the most populated regions, typically lower-middle income countries in the moist tropics and subtropics, violate this threshold well before 3 °C of warming. Further global warming increases the extent of threshold crossing into drier regions, e.g., in North America and the Middle East.
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2305427120Microplastics ingested by humans can be found in every organ including the brain, new study finds
In the study published in the International Journal of Molecular Science, the authors found that the small plastic particles accumulated in every tissue they examined, including deep in the brain tissue ... Exposure to the plastics led to behavioural changes in the mice similar to dementia in humans, the researchers said, with older mice more heavily impacted ... they found that microplastics could decrease a protein that impacts cell processes in the brain. Microplastics already detected in human tissue [and] detected at alarming levels in the environment as plastic waste has increased in recent decades.
https://www.euronews.com/next/2023/08/30/microplastics-could-be-widespread-in-organs-and-impact-behaviour-new-study-suggests
reporting on a study at https://www.mdpi.com/1422-0067/24/15/12308New study finds 50-year trend in hurricane escalation linked to climate change
New research by Rowan University climate scientist Dr. Andra Garner indicates that there have been great changes to Atlantic hurricanes in just the past 50 years, with storms developing and strengthening faster ... Garner documented this week in the journal Nature Scientific Reports that from 1971 through 2020, intensification rates from Atlantic hurricanes have changed as human-caused greenhouse gas emissions warmed the planet and its oceans. Atlantic hurricanes developed faster, from a weak Category 1 hurricane to a major Category 3 or stronger, in a 24-period than they did between 1970 and 1990 ... ever-warming ocean waters, such as the record-high temperatures reported this summer off the coast of Florida, are especially troubling, because tropical storms feed off energy in ocean water and the warmer the water, the greater the amount of energy such storms can draw ... "One of the messages from this work is that there is an urgency," Garner said. "If we don't make some pretty big changes and rapidly move away from fossil fuels, this is something we can expect to see worsen in the future."
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/10/231019111220.htm
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-42669-yWhy 10 billion snow crabs starved to death in the Bering Sea
The water was too warm for them
Alaskan fishermen (and scientists) first noticed a dramatic decline in their numbers back in 2021 [but] the full extent of the crab disappearance was only [understood] earlier in 2023—over 10 billion were missing. Upon discovering this alarming decline, a research team set to work to figure out what happened ... the area had experienced a heat wave prior to, and during, the crab disappearance [and] researchers found that if water temperatures increased by just 3°C, the caloric needs of the crabs doubled. Records showed that during the heat wave, water temperatures had risen 3°C, which meant the crabs would have needed twice as much food to sustain themselves. ... that, the researchers conclude, led the crabs to starve to death.
https://phys.org/news/2023-10-billion-crabs-starved-death-bering.html
reporting on a study at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adf6035World 'failing' on pledge to halt and reverse deforestation by 2030
In 2021, leaders from over 100 countries and territories -- representing the vast majority of the world's forests -- pledged to stop and reverse forest loss by 2030. But an annual assessment released Tuesday found global deforestation actually increased by four percent last year, and the world remains well off track to meet the 2030 commitment. "That 2030 goal is not just nice to have, it's essential for maintaining a livable climate for humanity," warned Erin Matson, a lead author of the Forest Declaration Assessment.
https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20231024-world-failing-on-pledge-to-halt-and-reverse-deforestation-by-2030Rapid Antarctic Melting Looks Certain, Even if Emissions Goals Are Met
As the planet warms, larger volumes of warm water are bathing the undersides of West Antarctica’s ice shelves, the giant tongues of ice at the ends of glaciers ... as the shelves melt and thin, more of the land ice moves toward the ocean, eventually contributing to sea level rise. Curbing fossil fuel emissions might help slow this melting, but scientists haven’t been sure by how much. Now, researchers in Britain have run the numbers and come to a sobering conclusion: A certain amount of accelerated melting is essentially locked in. Even if nations limited global warming to 1.5C it wouldn’t do much to halt the thinning [meaning] “some amount of sea level rise that we cannot avoid.” The findings by Dr. Naughten and her colleagues, which were published Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change, add to a litany of gloomy prognostications for the ice on the western side of the frozen continent. Two of the region’s fastest-moving glaciers, Thwaites and Pine Island, have been losing vast amounts of ice to the ocean for decades ... their study’s methods are broadly in line with past findings.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/23/climate/antarctic-melting-sea-level-rise.html
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01818-xArctic Sea Ice Resumes Its Slide
The oldest ice floating in the Arctic Sea appears to have resumed its melt toward oblivion, according to data released this week by the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado Boulder. Scientists monitor the oldest ice because it tends to be more resilient, NSIDC says, better at reflecting sunlight, better at resisting melt. “Very little of the oldest (4+ years old) ice remains in the Arctic, with small patches north of Greenland and an area north of the Beaufort Sea,” the NSIDC reported after recording the year’s annual low for Arctic ice on Sept. 19 ... the loss of that ice could trigger irreversible climate feedbacks, such as the release of methane trapped in permafrost and trapped under the sea, and such as the accelerated collapse of the Greenland ice sheet, with a consequent rise in global sea levels. It would be a loss, he said, from which we will be unable to recover.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2023/10/12/polar-sea-ice-resumes-its-slideAntarctica has lost 7.5 trillion tonnes of ice since 1997, scientists find
More than 40% of Antarctica’s ice shelves have shrunk since 1997 with almost half showing “no sign of recovery”, a study has found, linking the change to the climate breakdown ... The estimated 67tn tonnes of freshwater released into the ocean over the 25-year period affects the ocean currents that transport heat and nutrients around the world ... “We expected most ice shelves to go through cycles of rapid, but short-lived shrinking, then to regrow slowly. Instead, we see that almost half of them are shrinking with no sign of recovery.” Last month, a study found that Antarctica was likely to be warming at almost twice the rate of the rest of the world and faster than climate crisis models are predicting.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/12/antarctica-has-lost-7-5tn-tonnes-of-ice-since-1997-scientists-find
reporting on a study at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adi0186New Study Finds That the Gulf Stream is Warming and Shifting Closer to Shore
A new study published today in Nature Climate Change now documents that over the past 20 years, the Gulf Stream has warmed faster than the global ocean as a whole and has shifted towards the coast. The study, led by Robert Todd, a physical oceanographer at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), relies on over 25,000 temperature and salinity profiles collected between 2001 and 2023. “The warming we see near the Gulf Stream is due to two combined effects. One is that the ocean is absorbing excess heat from the atmosphere as the climate warms. The second is that the Gulf Stream itself is gradually shifting towards the coast.”
https://www.whoi.edu/press-room/news-release/gulf-stream-is-warming-and-shifting/Simultaneous Megafires Will Increasingly Plague the Western U.S.
Climate change is expected to help spark more simultaneous megafires in the western United States — a trend that could make it harder for firefighters to control the blazes ... projects increases in the number of simultaneous megafires — fires with a final burned area of 1,000 acres or more — in "every part of the Western USA at multiple return periods." Simultaneous wildfires are more difficult to handle than a single wildfire, even if the total acreage is similar ... The study also expects there will be a longer period of time in which simultaneous megafires threaten the West. "The length of the season of high simultaneity also increases everywhere and extends later into the year, most notably in the northern and eastern parts of the region, and especially in the Rocky Mountain" area, according to the study.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/simultaneous-megafires-will-increasingly-plague-the-western-u-s/
reporting on a study at https://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/Fulltext/WF22107Strange methane leak discovered at the deepest point of the Baltic Sea baffling scientists
A vast methane leak has been discovered at the deepest point in the Baltic Sea, and masses of bubbles of the greenhouse gas are rising far higher into the water column than scientists had expected. Researchers found the enormous leak 1,300 feet (400 meters) beneath the water's surface during an expedition to the Landsort Deep — the Baltic's deepest spot — in August. The area leaking methane is roughly 7.7 square miles (20 square kilometers), equivalent to about 4,000 soccer fields. "It's bubbling everywhere, basically, in these 20 square kilometers," Marcelo Ketzer, professor of environmental science at Linnaeus University in Sweden and project leader, told Live Science. In shallower, coastal seabeds, methane bubbles up from decaying organic matter, while in deeper water, it tends to disperse via diffusion — meaning no bubbles are needed — and most of the diffuse methane remains in the deepest water. But the new leak doesn't follow this pattern. "There's a totally different mechanism supplying methane to the bottom of the Baltic," Ketzer said.
https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/rivers-oceans/strange-methane-leak-discovered-at-the-deepest-point-of-the-baltic-sea-baffling-scientistsHurricanes Are Now Twice As Likely To Grow Into Monster Storms, New Study Says
Hurricanes in the Atlantic basin are now twice as likely as they were 30 years ago to rapidly intensify into major storms packing deadly and devastating damage, according to a new study. The paper, published Thursday by the journal Scientific Reports, pins the increase on warmer ocean waters fueled by global warming. The study is the latest in a growing catalog of research linking climate change to rapid intensification and other dynamics that make hurricanes more dangerous.
https://weather.com/news/climate/news/2023-10-19-hurricanes-rapid-intensification-warm-ocean-water
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-42669-y‘The anti-livestock people are a pest’: how UN food body played down role of farming in climate change
Ex-officials at the Food and Agriculture Organization say its leadership censored and undermined them when they highlighted how livestock methane is a major greenhouse gas
Scientists were aware that the methane produced by grazing cattle – around two-thirds of livestock emissions come from cows – was a significant chunk of the anthropogenic greenhouse gases that were heating the planet’s atmosphere [but] FAO was not the obvious candidate to jump into the breach [as] it was a country-based organisation, which felt that part of its mission was to represent the industry rather than scrutinise it ... none of the [report authors] were quite prepared for the storm that broke over their heads when Livestock’s Long Shadow (LLS) finally came out ... Livestock’s Long Shadow was the first elementary lifecycle analysis for livestock and, crucially, the first tally of the meat and dairy sector’s ecological cost. It was a bombshell [that] sent shockwaves through the meat industry and the tremors travelled quickly. Steinfeld remembered hearing complaints that “the FAO has fallen into the hands of vegan activists” and personal threats such as “the anti-livestock people are a pest that needs to be eradicated” ... The leadership at the FAO were taken by surprise by the backlash, according to sources, and the impact would be felt for the next decade, just at the moment that it became ever more important to look honestly at agriculture’s planet-heating role ... Steinfeld recalled being told by a senior official in the director general’s office: “Even if livestock contributes 18% to climate change, the FAO shall not say that. It’s not in the interest of the FAO” ... the impact on the lives and careers of the rebellious researchers had been profound, according to Steinfeld. “We were considered a difficult group ... not [with] the party line” ... Several former staff members compared the power of the agribusiness lobby over FAO policy to that of the oil and gas giants on energy policy. As Green put it: “It is all about money, similar to the fossil fuel industry.” Steinfeld added that meat lobby representatives and diplomats would talk to senior FAO managers and encourage them not to invest in work that dealt with environmental impacts ... “Private companies wanted to finance the science to achieve more outcomes that were biased in the direction they wanted, and this happened ... the trickle of scientific studies going in the livestock industry’s direction exploded” ... The issue is acutely important as the FAO will present a blueprint for pegging global temperature rises to 1.5C at the next Cop in November. As the only body overseeing global agriculture, the FAO is walking a thin line on livestock emissions ... In her own research into how agribusiness reacted to Livestock’s Long Shadow, Jacquet found “clear evidence that the industry saw it as a threat and something that they needed to control. They call it ‘a major PR problem’. It set off an industry lobbying coalition somewhat comparable to the oil and gas industry’s efforts against the Kyoto Protocol, with an enormous amount of coordination aimed at infiltrating and controlling climate science and, moreover, our understanding of the problem.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/20/the-anti-livestock-people-are-a-pest-how-un-fao-played-down-role-of-farming-in-climate-changeEven temporary global warming above 2℃ will affect life in the oceans for centuries, new study finds
Exceeding our emissions targets is known as a climate overshoot ... published research in Communications Earth & Environment investigates the implications of a climate overshoot for the oceans. Across all climate overshoot experiments and all models, our analysis found associated changes in water temperatures and oxygen levels will decrease viable ocean habitats [and] the water volumes that can provide viable habitats will decrease. This decrease persisted on the scale of centuries—well after global average temperature recovers from the overshoot ... It is better to return from an overshoot than staying at the higher level, but a lot worse than not overshooting in the first place. If we significantly overshoot the temperature targets of the Paris Agreement, many climate change impacts will be irreversible.
https://phys.org/news/2023-10-temporary-global-affect-life-oceans.html
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-01002-1Australia must urgently adapt to extreme weather or face soaring premiums, insurers warn
Global insurers say Australia is running out of time to reduce its vulnerability to the climate crisis ... “They said, ‘you’ve got five years basically’,” said the federal assistant treasurer, Stephen Jones, who led a delegation last month to insurance centres in London and Munich.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/18/australia-must-urgently-adapt-to-extreme-weather-or-face-soaring-premiums-insurers-warnI Study Climate Change. The Data Is Telling Us Something New.
2023 is almost certain to be the hottest year since reliable global records began in the mid-1800s and probably for the past 2,000 years (and well before that) ... And while many experts have been cautious about acknowledging it, there is increasing evidence that global warming has accelerated over the past 15 years rather than continued at a gradual, steady pace. That acceleration means that the effects of climate change we are already seeing — extreme heat waves, wildfires, rainfall and sea level rise — will only grow more severe in the coming years ... I’m worried that if we don’t pay attention today, we’ll miss what are increasingly clear signals. I wouldn’t be making this argument if I didn’t have strong evidence to back it up [see article] ... the world will not cool back down for many centuries, unless world powers join in major efforts to remove more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere than we add. But that is the brutal math of climate change ... we are far from on track to meet our climate goals, and much more work remains.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/13/opinion/climate-change-excessive-heat-2023.htmlDeadly humid heat could hit billions, spread as far as US Midwest, study says
Billions of people could struggle to survive in periods of deadly, humid heat within this century as temperatures rise ... While India, Pakistan and the Gulf already have briefly touched dangerous humid heat in recent years, the study found it will afflict major cities from Lagos, Nigeria, to Chicago, Illinois if the world keeps heating up. "It's coming up in places that we didn't think about before," said Vecellio, highlighting rising risk in South America and Australia ... In a landmark 2010 study, Huber proposed that a wet-bulb temperature of 35C (95F) persisting for six or more hours could be the conservative limit for the human body. Beyond this, people were likely to succumb to heat stress if they could not find a way to cool down. A decade later, a group of American scientists co-led by Vecellio put Huber's theory to the test [and] found the limit was lower at between 30C (86F) and 31C (88F). Huber and Vecellio joined forces for Monday's study to apply this lower limit to the world under various future climate warming scenarios, ranging between 1.5C and 4C (2.7F and 7.2F) ... Another study published last month in Sciences Advances used Vecellio's threshold alongside weather station data and climate models to reach a similar conclusion: that the geographic range and frequency of dangerous humid heat will increase rapidly under even moderate global warming.
https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/deadly-humid-heat-could-hit-billions-spread-far-us-midwest-study-says-2023-10-09
reporting on a study at https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2305427120
reporting on a study at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adg9297El Niño may bring extreme weather to West Coast, models suggest
Climate models are suggesting that El Niño could become a "strong" or even "super'' strong event this winter, potentially bringing a wide range of extreme weather to the West Coast. Never before have we gone into an El Niño event with global ocean and air temperatures as high as they are now ... The most recent forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) gives a roughly 70% chance for a "strong" El Niño from November through January ... But the greatest impacts and most extreme weather events will more likely occur between January and March ... One experimental model developed by the National Science Foundation's National Center for Atmospheric Research suggests that because ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific are above a certain threshold, we could even see a "super" El Niño. If so, it could become one of the strongest such events on record.
https://www.axios.com/local/seattle/2023/10/10/el-nino-winter-forecast-west-coast-2023South America’s Winter Hot Spell Was 100 Times More Likely with Climate Change
“Worryingly, temperatures above 40 degrees C in spring are becoming common in many parts of the world,” said Izidine Pinto, a researcher at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and a member of the international World Weather Attribution (WWA) team that conducted the analysis, in a press release. “This is the reality of our rapidly warming climate. We’re now experiencing more and more dangerously hot days each year” ... July was the hottest month in human history, the three months from June to August were the hottest three-month period, and September was likely the most anomalously warm month (meaning its temperatures were the most above a given month’s long-term average). A tendency toward more extreme heat events and fewer extreme cold ones is a hallmark of the changing climate as humans continue to burn fossil fuels and add to the heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/south-americas-winter-hot-spell-was-100-times-more-likely-with-climate-change/Climate Change Lends New Color to the Ocean
The deep-blue sea is turning a touch greener. While that may not seem as consequential as, say, record warm sea surface temperatures, the color of the ocean surface is indicative of the ecosystem that lies beneath ... microscopic photosynthesizing organisms abound in near-surface waters and are foundational to the aquatic food web and carbon cycle. This shift in the water’s hue confirms a trend expected under climate change and signals changes to ecosystems within the global ocean, which covers 70 percent of Earth’s surface ... 56 percent of the global sea surface has undergone a significant change in color in the past 20 years ... an ocean color trend that had been predicted by climate modeling, but one that was expected to take 30-40 years ... The new method was robust enough to confirm the trend in 20 years.
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/151894/climate-change-lends-new-color-to-the-oceanScientists looked at nearly every known amphibian type. They're not doing great
The assessment, published in the journal Nature, looked at two decades worth of data from more than 1,000 scientists across the world. It assessed the status of nearly every known amphibian on the planet [and] found that the status of amphibians globally is "deteriorating rapidly," earning them the unenviable title of being the planet's most threatened class of vertebrates. Forty-one percent of the assessed amphibians are threatened with extinction in the immediate and long-term, Luedtke said. Habitat loss from agriculture, logging and human other encroachment, was the biggest driver of the deterioration ... amphibians are particularly vulnerable to changes in their environment. Many rely on water to reproduce. They're cold-blooded and, thus, susceptible to small changes in temperature.
https://www.npr.org/2023/10/04/1203120401/scientists-looked-at-nearly-every-known-amphibian-type-theyre-not-doing-greatMany scientists don’t want to tell the truth about climate change. Here’s why
“Almost irrespective of our emissions choices in the near term, we will probably reach 1.5 degrees in the first half of the next decade,” said Irish climate scientist Peter Thorne, one of the lead authors on the [2023 IPCC] report ... Why is overshooting 1.5 C inevitable? Physics. There’s a nearly linear relationship between the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the average global temperature [so] by the early-to-mid-2030s, we’ll be living in a post-1.5 C world. Unless we quickly cut carbon emissions to zero. Last I checked, that’s not happening ... After this report came out, something weird happened. Scientists kept saying things like: “We need to act now to stay below 1.5” or “it’s getting harder, but still technically possible.” Technically possible? Like, if aliens appear with magic tools? ... 1.5 C has moved from “ambitious goal” to “magical thinking.” And the scientists are telling themselves a story to stave off despair. There’s something else going on, too: Scientists are shielding the public. They say: “We don’t want people to give up” or “We don’t want people to lose hope.” This is paternalism ... If you treat people like children who can’t handle the truth, they will behave like children ... When people know what they’re up against, many will be sad — I’m sad! — but then they can prepare.
https://www.wbur.org/cognoscenti/2023/10/03/1-5-degrees-celcius-un-climate-change-report-barbara-moranCanada left battered by 'never before seen' wildfire season
"We have shattered all the records on a Canadian scale," says a shaken Yan Boulanger, a researcher for the country's natural resources ministry. There had never been so many areas burned—18 million hectares (70,000 square miles), via 6,400 fires—or so many people evacuated, at more than 200,000. "It's an impressive wake-up call because we didn't necessarily expect it so quickly" ... "There is little chance that this forest will be able to regenerate. The trees are too young to have had time to form cones which ensure the next generation," says Maxence Martin, a professor of forest ecology at the University of Quebec in Abitibi-Temiscamingue ... northern forest releases 10 to 20 times more carbon per unit of burned area than other ecosystems. That's helped Canada's emissions reach unprecedented levels, at 473 megatons this year. That's more than three times higher than the previous record, according to data from Europe's Copernicus observatory. And in the boreal forest, due to the thickness of the humus on the ground, fires can continue to burn for months ... Much of Canada, including the far north, is facing extreme drought conditions. Lightning storms earlier this year were triggering hundreds of fires in a single day.
https://phys.org/news/2023-10-canada-left-battered-wildfire-season.htmlCoastal areas will face record ‘sunny day’ flooding in 2024 — NOAA
[US] coastal communities are expected to face three times as many high-tide, or “sunny day,” flooding instances through next April, compared to two decades ago, [NOAA] officials said in a press call. “Increased high-tide flooding is not isolated to a few regions but is accelerating in many locations across the country due to sea-level rise,” said Nicole LeBoeuf, assistant administrator for NOAA’s National Ocean Service. “A new factor in the mix this year is the strengthening of El Niño conditions that are predicted to further amplify high-tide flooding frequencies at more than a third of NOAA’s tide gauge locations in the East and West coasts.”
https://www.eenews.net/articles/coastal-areas-will-face-record-sunny-day-flooding-in-2024-noaaThe South American monsoon approaches a critical transition in response to deforestation
Amazon rainforest is threatened by land-use change and increasing drought and fire frequency. Studies suggest an abrupt dieback of large parts of the rainforest after partial forest loss ... we reveal both statistical and physical precursor signals of an approaching critical transition [and] attribute these characteristic precursor signals to the nearing of a critical transition of the coupled Amazon atmosphere-vegetation system induced by forest loss due to deforestation, droughts, and fires. The transition would lead to substantially drier conditions, under which the rainforest could likely not be maintained.
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.add9973
see also https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/04/south-american-monsoon-heading-towards-tipping-point-likely-to-cause-amazon-diebackAntarctica’s Floating Boundary Moves up to Nine Miles with the Tide
“We typically think of ice sheet change as being very slow, taking place over decades, centuries or even millennia,” said lead author Bryony Freer, a student researcher and glaciologist at the British Antarctic Survey and Centre for Satellite Data in Environmental Science (SENSE CDT) at the University of Leeds. “Our findings highlight that there are some processes operating over much shorter time periods — minutes to hours” ... During a rising tide, extra buoyancy lifts more of the ice shelf off the seabed and the grounding line temporarily moves inland. It returns to its seaward position at low tide ... The 15-kilometer (nine-mile) shift in the grounding line position between high and low tide described in the new paper is one of the largest observed anywhere in Antarctica. It shows the grounding line can move more than 30 kilometers (18 miles) per hour, flushing ocean water several kilometers further inland under the ice sheet. This exposure to seawater could help the ice melt more quickly from below. In less stable regions, such as the Thwaites Glacier, this process is known to have driven long-term historic grounding line retreat.
https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/antarcticas-floating-boundary-moves-nine-miles-tide
reporting on a study at https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/4079/2023/tc-17-4079-2023.htmlArctic cyclones have become more intense and longer-lived over the past seven decades
Intense cyclones driving extreme Arctic weather and climate events have been more frequently observed during recent years [with] a long-term shift of the maximum cyclone counts from weaker to stronger cyclones and a pronounced lengthening of the duration of strong cyclones ... increased strong cyclone frequency over the Arctic ... amplified winter jet stream waves over the subpolar North Atlantic, and a strengthened summer tropospheric vortex over the central Arctic. The stratospheric vortex has also intensified.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-01003-0World breaches key 1.5C warming mark for record number of days
On about a third of days in 2023, the average global temperature was at least 1.5C higher than pre-industrial levels. Staying below that marker long-term is widely considered crucial to avoid the most damaging impacts of climate change. But 2023 is "on track" to be the hottest year on record, and 2024 could be hotter. "It is a sign that we're reaching levels we haven't been before," says Dr Melissa Lazenby, from the University of Sussex ... Breaching the [1.5C] Paris thresholds doesn't mean going over them for a day or a week [but] the more often 1.5C is breached for individual days, the closer the world gets to breaching this mark in the longer term.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-66857354Extraordinary September heat means 2023 is now on track to be the warmest year on record
2023 is on course to be the hottest year on record, scientists warned on Thursday, following extraordinarily high temperatures in September and the hottest summer in human history. The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said global average temperatures for January through to September were 1.4 degrees Celsius higher than the preindustrial period of 1850 to 1900. September’s temperature anomalies prompted one researcher to describe the findings as nothing less than “absolutely gobsmackingly bananas.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/04/climate-crisis-2023-set-to-be-warmest-on-record-after-september-heat.htmlBizarre year for sea ice notches another record
Antarctica finishes well below any other year in the satellite era. On September 25, the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) published preliminary dates and numbers for the annual maximum sea ice coverage in the Antarctic and minimum coverage in the Arctic. With the last few days of September in the books, NSIDC noted Wednesday that those determinations have held. After smashing the satellite-era record for minimum extent in February, Antarctic sea ice coverage continued to track well below the range of previous years through the Southern Hemisphere winter months. It maxed out just shy of 17 million square kilometers on September 10 at the end of winter—a full 1 million square kilometers below the previous record set in 1986.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/10/bizarre-year-for-sea-ice-notches-another-record/Climate Change Is Pushing Many of the World’s Amphibians Closer to Extinction
Two in five amphibian species are at risk of extinction, and their threats are increasingly coming from climate change, according to a new study published Wednesday in the journal Nature ... their cold-bloodedness makes them particularly vulnerable to climate change, because it leaves them sensitive to shifts in temperature and the environment [and] in recent years, climate change has been playing a bigger role in driving amphibians to a more at-risk status.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/climate-change-is-pushing-many-of-the-worlds-amphibians-closer-to-extinction-180983019/
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06578-4Earth’s average 2023 temperature is now likely to reach 1.5 °C of warming
In May, a World Meteorological Organization report said that there was a 66% chance that the average annual temperature would breach 1.5 °C of warming between 2023 and 2027. In its August 2023 monthly update, Berkeley Earth — a non-profit climate-monitoring organization — has put the chance of 2023 being on average 1.5 °C warmer at 55%. This is up from a chance of less than 1% predicted by the team before the start of the year, and the 20% chance estimated using July’s figures.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02995-7PFAS ‘forever chemicals’ harming wildlife the world over: Study
While it’s now well known that human exposure to PFAS can cause cancer, reduce immunity, impair fertility, cause liver damage and trigger myriad other health problems, scientists are becoming increasingly aware that wildlife is also at risk ... the study’s lead author, David Andrews, notes that pretty much anywhere you look for these long-lived “forever chemicals,” you’ll find them ... his team scoured scientific journals to compile this planetwide overview [and] found that more than 600 species risk harm from PFAS. It’s an alarming discovery amid a biodiversity crisis in which about half of the world’s species are in decline and already threatened by numerous other stressors ... there are more than 6,000 PFAS chemical compounds in commercial use [and are] ubiquitous in food packaging, clothing, plastics, furniture, electronics, personal care and cleaning products, firefighting foams, medical devices and many other products. These forever chemicals break down very slowly ... Andrews says, “these chemicals have been shown to cause harm pretty much throughout the body,” where they can remain for years. They’re toxic, even in minute amounts. “Based on what we know, people are impacted at incredibly low concentrations,” he says. It seems animals are, too, and because PFAS are persistent, they bioaccumulate up the food chain ... For both humans and animals, PFAS impact the nervous system; interfere with reproduction and development; damage organs, including the liver; disrupt metabolism; cause tumors; and lower immunity. Prenatal or early exposure can cause irreversible, negative effects on health, reproduction and survival [and] alter hormones, including the thyroid, which helps regulate metabolism, growth and central nervous system and brain function in mammals ... PFAS manufacturers knew early on that these chemicals were dangerous. In 1950, the 3M company discovered that PFAS built up in blood, and the firm’s 1963 technical manual deemed the chemicals toxic. In the mid-1960s, DuPont discovered liver, kidney and spleen damage. In 1977, 3M found PFOS — the PFAS chemical used in Scotchguard fabric treatment — to be “more toxic than anticipated.” But these studies were not made public.
https://news.mongabay.com/2023/09/pfas-forever-chemicals-harming-wildlife-the-world-over-study/
reporting on a study at https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0048969723045643Canadian wildfires could keep burning through winter, minister says
https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/canadian-wildfires-could-keep-burning-through-winter-minister-2023-09-07/‘Too hot’ for salmon: How climate change is contributing to the Yukon salmon collapse
Scientists think many of these threats are connected to climate change. Ferguson studies one of them, a parasite named ichthyophonus, at the Alaska Department of Fish and Game lab in Anchorage. As salmon are making their journey upstream, they’re especially vulnerable. “Their immune system is not as good, their bodies are just breaking down,” Ferguson said. Many infected fish don’t survive long enough to lay eggs ... warming river water might also play a role. “It’s crazy to be at the northern-range extent of salmon and talking about it being too hot for them,” said Vanessa von Biela, a U.S. Geological Survey ecologist. Salmon are cold-blooded [so] when it’s too hot, Von Biela said, the proteins that keep salmon cells functioning normally start to lose their shape. “Their whole physiology, their whole body is designed to be in cold water,” she said. “So when that water is warm, they just really hit these limits” ... The ocean is heating up too. Climate change is bringing on more marine heat waves, or periods of severe ocean warming. Jim Murphy is a NOAA fisheries biologist who has studied salmon at sea for 20 years. He said marine heat waves are disrupting the availability of salmon prey species ... when he examines fish, one thing is clear: all salmon — but especially chum — are not getting enough to eat ... Scientists say all three of these factors — disease, heat waves, a lack of food — exacerbate each other. A fish that didn’t eat enough is already weaker as it starts its journey up the Yukon. Add a parasite and heat stress, and that fish is a lot less likely to make it to its spawning grounds to reproduce, which means fewer fish next year.
https://alaskapublic.org/2023/09/26/too-hot-for-salmon-how-climate-change-is-contributing-to-the-yukon-salmon-collapse/Flowers Growing in Antarctica Are the Latest Sign of Environmental Catastrophe
Warmer weather has made the frigid continent more hospitable to two flowering plants, which are now proliferating. The continent’s only flowering plants have been growing rapidly in the past decade, thanks to warmer temperatures. “Antarctica is acting as a canary in a coal mine,” [said] Nicoletta Cannone, the study’s lead author ... Cannone and her team concentrated their observations of the plants on Signy Island, in the South Orkney Islands range, because of a robust historical dataset related to the plants’ growth [and] found that Colobanthus grew five times faster between 2009 and 2018 compared to growth rates between 1960 and 2009. Deschampsia, meanwhile, really took off, growing 10 times more in the past decade than before ... A study published in 2020 found that Antarctica has warmed three times faster than the rest of the world over the past 30 years ... it’s clear that warmer weather driven by climate change is accelerating the growth of these plants, at a much faster rate than scientists expected.
https://gizmodo.com/antarctic-plants-thriving-climate-change-1848542296
reporting on a study at https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(22)00136-1Antarctic sea ice shrinks to lowest annual maximum level on record, data shows
The new mark is the latest in a string of records for the continent’s sea ice, as scientists fear global heating could have shifted the region into a new era of disappearing ice with far reaching consequences for the world’s climate and sea levels ... US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) said preliminary analysis suggested the sea ice reached a maximum of 16.96 million sq km on 10 September and had fallen away since then. The 2023 maximum was 1.75 million sq km below the long term average and about 1 million sq km below the previous record low maximum set in 1986. Dr Will Hobbs, a sea ice scientist at the University of Tasmania, said that since April the rate of growth in Antarctica’s sea ice had been “very, very slow. This isn’t just a big change from the average, but also from the previous record. In May it was pretty obvious we were in for something spectacular” ... NSIDC said the losses of sea ice since 2016 were most likely linked to warming of the upper layer of the ocean.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/26/antarctic-sea-ice-shrinks-to-lowest-annual-maximum-level-on-record-data-showsScientists found the most intense heat wave ever recorded [anywhere on Earth] — in Antarctica
In March 2022, temperatures near the eastern coast of Antarctica spiked 70 degrees Fahrenheit (39 degrees Celsius) above normal — making it the most intense recorded heat wave to occur anywhere on Earth, according to a recent study. At the time, researchers on-site were wearing shorts and some even removed their shirts to bask in the (relative) warmth. Scientists elsewhere said such a high in that region of the world was unthinkable. [It was] warmer than even the hottest temperature recorded during the summer months in that region.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/09/23/antarctica-heat-wave-record
reporting on a study at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GL104910Bangladesh: Nearly 1,000 people die of dengue in severe outbreak
[T]he country's most severe outbreak of the disease yet ... used to be a seasonal disease in Bangladesh, but due to hotter and wetter monsoons brought about by climate change, it has been occurring more frequently [and] the condition of current dengue patients deteriorates much faster compared to the last few years ... patients have swarmed hospitals in the capital of Dhaka seeking treatment but most of the facilities are at overcapacity. Hospitals are also running short of intravenous fluids, which is crucial to treatment.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66944315Mutilation of the tree of life via mass extinction of animal genera
We are in the sixth mass extinction event. Unlike the previous five, this one is caused by the overgrowth of a single species, Homo sapiens. Although the episode is often viewed as an unusually fast (in evolutionary time) loss of species, it is much more threatening ... entire branches (collections of species, genera, families, and so on) and the functions they perform are being lost. It is changing the trajectory of evolution globally [and] is an irreversible threat to the persistence of civilization and the livability of future environments ... the human-driven sixth mass extinction is more severe than previously assessed and is rapidly accelerating. The current generic extinction rates are 35 times higher than expected background rates prevailing in the last million years under the absence of human impacts [and] will likely greatly accelerate in the next few decades due to drivers accompanying the growth and consumption of the human enterprise ... If all now-endangered genera were to vanish by 2100, extinction rates would be 354 (average) or 511 (for mammals) times higher than background rates, meaning that genera lost in three centuries would have taken 106,000 and 153,000 years to become extinct in the absence of humans ... Most natural ecosystem have been highly modified or have disappeared altogether, and the abundance of wildlife has been greatly reduced. In well-studied major taxonomic groups, thousands of species and myriad populations have vanished [and] current animal species extinction rates are estimated to be hundreds or thousands of times higher than the background rates that prevailed for millions of years prior to the agricultural revolution. For example, there were around 10,000,000 African elephants at the beginning of the 20th century, and now there are only about 450,000 remaining.
https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2306987120New Orleans braces for drinking water emergency from drought-stricken Mississippi River
Officials in Louisiana are in a race against time as salt water from the Gulf of Mexico threatens drinking water supplies in New Orleans and its surrounding areas because of unusually low levels in the drought-addled Mississippi River ... The situation highlights the dangers of saltwater intrusion for communities in the southeastern part of Louisiana and adds to broader concerns about climate change and the availability of safe drinking water in drought-prone parts of the country ... close to 1 million people within the greater New Orleans area could be affected ... it’s estimated that briny water could reach water intake facilities in Belle Chasse by Oct. 13 and facilities in New Orleans later in October ... In normal times, the river’s downstream flow is powerful enough to stem the encroaching salt water, preventing it from moving too far inland [but] drought conditions have caused water levels in the Mississippi to plunge to one of their lowest levels in recent decades.
https://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/new-orleans-braces-drinking-water-emergency-drought-stricken-mississip-rcna117218Water levels on the Mississippi River are plummeting for the second year in a row
Every water level gauge along a nearly 400-mile stretch of the Mississippi from the Ohio River to Jackson, Mississippi, is at or below the low-water threshold ... The same stretch of the river experienced record-low water levels last year in October, which brought major impacts on farming communities and barge traffic during the critical harvest period ... “We’ve been teetering on extreme drought since last fall,” said Colin Wellenkamp, the executive director of the Mississippi River Cities and Towns Initiative, a network that includes mayors and experts along the Mississippi River ... As water levels drop, the threat of saltwater intrusion is growing in Louisiana as ocean water pushes north into drinking water systems, unimpeded by the Mississippi’s normally mighty flow rate. “Based off the current forecast, and if no action is taken, you could potentially see the saltwater wedge all the way up to the French Quarter,” Cullen Jones, commander of the Army Corps’ New Orleans District office, said ... drought and low water levels get worse in the Upper Midwest as El Nino strengthens in the Pacific Ocean, said Jonathan T. Overpeck, dean of the school for environment and sustainability at the University of Michigan. But this year’s conditions were not caused by the natural climate phenomenon, he said. “This is heat that has already been trapped in the system due to climate change ... It’s cooking the planet and we’re seeing the impacts unfold in the Mississippi River right now.”
https://us.cnn.com/2023/09/21/us/mississippi-low-water-levels-drought-climate/index.html‘It’s an emergency’: Midwest towns scramble as drought threatens drinking water
Towns and ranches face tough and expensive choices on where to draw water from, a problem likely to increase as climate change brings more extreme weather ... Persistent drought is plaguing communities across the country’s interior: The map created by the U.S. Drought Monitor shows its deepest red pockets across Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska and Texas, among other states. Lack of rain has hit crops hard: In Missouri, for example, 40% of the state’s corn crop was classified as poor or very poor, according to the drought monitor. Iowa, the nation’s top corn producer, is in the midst of its worst drought in a decade with about 80% of the state in some measure of drought. Prolonged drought has even reached the banks of Lake Superior: Parts of Wisconsin have the most severe drought designation for the first time since the 1999 inception of the U.S. Drought Monitor, said Dennis Todey, director of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Midwest Climate Hub. “It’s the severity of the drought and the length of the drought that are causing some confounding issues right now,” he said.
https://missouriindependent.com/2023/09/15/its-an-emergency-midwest-towns-scramble-as-drought-threatens-drinking-water/Severe plankton bloom off Thailand creates marine ‘dead zone’
An unusually dense plankton bloom off the eastern coast of Thailand is creating an aquatic “dead zone” [where] some areas in the Gulf of Thailand have more than 10 times the normal amount of plankton, turning the water a bright green and killing off marine life. “This is the first that I’ve seen it so bad,” said marine scientist Tanuspong Pokavanich. “It is very severe”... scientists believe pollution and the intense heat caused by climate change are to blame. “El Niño causes drought and higher sea temperatures,” said Tanuspong. “Everything will get worse if we don’t adjust how we manage resources, water waste and how we live.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/20/severe-plankton-bloom-off-thailand-creates-marine-dead-zoneCould Climate Change Bring On a Dangerous, Incurable Fungus?
Experts have long known that the inside of the human body is too warm for most fungal infections. But what if Earth’s rising temperature leads to a dangerous, incurable fungus that can survive inside an increasing number of humans? ... Candida auris is one of the leading opportunistic fungal infections. Scientists believe it emerged around 2009 as a result of Earth’s overall changing climate; they were surprised by how deadly it is, and how it’s seemingly resistant to many antifungal medications. [It] emerged as the result of a one-time shift in the climate ... The leading candidate for a climate-driven opportunistic fungal infection is Valley fever [which grows] in hot, dry places in California and Nevada. But as climate change shifts the temperatures in other states, cases of Valley fever are increasing in new places ... The inside of the human body is typically far too hot for a fungal pathogen [but] as the world heats up, there will be more and more areas where the outside temperature is no longer so different from the temperature inside the human body. Scientists believe this could both increase the range of existing hot-weather fungi—like the ones that cause Valley fever—and also induce other fungi to adapt to their surroundings until they are comfortable in the range of human body temperature ... Valley fever has historically been isolated to Arizona and California, but cases have expanded into other states, and will likely continue to grow [since it] does not have to change or adapt in order to increase its range, because climate change will “adapt” its geographical area instead. More and more places will hit record high temperatures and experience drought conditions where Valley fever-causing fungi can thrive.
https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/a44674502/dangerous-incurable-fungus-from-climate-change/Time to panic? The home insurance market in California is collapsing because of climate change
This year, multiple companies, including the state’s largest home insurer, State Farm, have announced they are no longer taking on new residential and commercial properties ... seven of the 12 insurance groups operating in California — together, responsible for about 85% of the market — have pulled back [as] the speed and ferocity of climate disasters has intensified. Only eight months into 2023, the U.S. has recorded 23 climate-related disasters, each with damages of at least $1 billion ... “Throughout the United States, in different geographies, we’re reaching a point where climate change is driving to an uninsurable future,” said Dave Jones, a former California insurance commissioner and current director of UC Berkeley’s Climate Risk Initiative ... this isn’t just about insurance. It’s just that insurance is the first system to face collapse. “You can have debates about these various proposals, but what’s underlying all that is climate change, and it’s only going to get worse” ... FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell took the alarming step of warning that the agency is running out of money after a year of nonstop disasters ... Now imagine what will happen if there’s also a full-on breakdown of the insurance market.
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-09-14/home-insurance-climate-change-cost-all-californiansInsurance premiums could surge in these U.S. cities because of climate disasters, new data shows
An analysis of from nonprofit research group First Street Foundation found nearly 39 million homes and commercial properties – about 27% of properties in the Lower 48 – are at risk of their premiums spiking as insurers struggle to cover the increasing cost of rebuilding after disasters ... major insurers have pulled out of or stopped writing new policies in California, Florida and Louisiana [and] it’s still growing in other places we think of as less risky ... The insurance industry is only just beginning to price the cost of climate change into its premiums [which] means fewer choices between companies as private insurers pull out of high-risk areas or restrict coverage. Nearly 7 million properties, almost 1 in 20 buildings, have already experienced price surges or have been dropped by insurance companies [and] this problem is growing.
https://www.mercurynews.com/2023/09/20/insurance-premiums-could-surge-in-these-u-s-cities-because-of-climate-disasters-new-data-shows/
see also https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/us-home-insurance-bubble-closer-to-popping-as-climate-risks-mount-1.1973743
reporting on a study at https://firststreet.org/research-lab/published-research/article-highlights-from-the-insurance-issue/Why 2% Is the Most Dangerous Number No One Is Talking About
Multiple studies have shown that male sperm counts have fallen dramatically in the past 50 years. That decline appears to be accelerating
Nature is increasingly stewing in air- and water-borne toxins originating in industrial processes [and] research shows that whole classes of these chemicals are affecting sexuality and disrupting reproduction—not just in humans, but in a host of other animal species as well. But the whole subject is controversial and is getting far too little attention, partly because reproduction and sexuality are culturally sensitive topics, and partly because the chemicals industry wields considerable political power ... The pollutants most likely to have widespread impacts on reproductive health have been identified—hormone-mimicking chemicals that have become widely dispersed in the environment, many of which persist for decades or longer ... The first of these papers, published in 2017, covered data from North America, Europe, and Australia/New Zealand. It found “a significant decline in sperm counts ... between 1973 and 2011” ... A more recent paper confirmed these conclusions and expanded them to include Africa and South America ... “the mean [sperm count] declined by 51.6% between 1973 and 2018.” The study also found that the decline rate, currently about 2 percent per year, is increasing [which] would result in near-universal male sterility by about 2060 [Note: other data suggests much sooner] ... Women are likewise experiencing puzzling and worrisome trends in sexuality and reproduction ... Perhaps the most frightening biological impact of many endocrine-disrupting chemicals is their tendency to alter DNA expression in ways that can be inherited by subsequent generations ... Pete Myers refers to this intergenerational amplification of impacts as a “male fertility death spiral” ... It’s bad enough that chemicals could result in a human population crash this century, but other species are being impacted too. The most recent estimates suggest that insect biomass is declining by up to a startling 2 percent per year. This frightening trend is no doubt partly due to habitat loss. But another major cause appears to be the same chemicals associated with increasing reproductive problems in humans—“forever” chemicals, BPA, phthalates, etc. The story is similar with other animals. Studies of farmed mink in Canada and Sweden have linked industrial and agricultural chemicals with lower sperm counts and abnormal testicular and penis development. A similar effect has been seen in Florida alligators, in UK crustaceans, and in fish downstream from wastewater treatment plants around the world ... for most humans and other animals that are affected, the obvious and likely culprit, once again, is toxic hormone-mimicking chemicals dispersed throughout the environment ... Unless the chemical load on the environment is radically reduced, and soon, the stakes may be ... a radically reduced roster of higher life forms.
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2023-09-12/why-2-is-the-most-dangerous-number-no-one-is-talking-about/
reporting on a study at https://academic.oup.com/humupd/article/23/6/646/4035689
reporting on a study at https://academic.oup.com/humupd/article/29/2/157/6824414
reporting on a study at https://www.unep.org/topics/chemicals-and-pollution-action/chemicals-management/global-chemicals-outlook
reporting on a study at https://journals.plos.org/plosgenetics/article?id=10.1371/journal.pgen.1006885Dams Worldwide Are at Risk of Catastrophic Failure
After two dams in northeastern Libya failed, thousands are dead, thousands more are unaccounted for, and tens of thousands are displaced. The disaster occurred at the confluence of sociopolitical instability, a historic storm (likely exacerbated by climate change) and neglected infrastructure; the destroyed dams, first constructed in the 1970s, had reportedly not been maintained since 2002. Similar conditions are replicated in many other places worldwide. Most of the world’s large dams were built in the decades following World War II [but] dams - like all human-made structures - have a limited life span, degrade over time, and require upkeep. On the lower end, “50 years is the reasonable safe age limit,” Perera says [but] many countries’ dams are, on average, older than age 50 and are at increasing risk of failure. This includes in the U.S., which has the second-highest number of large dams in the world after China and where the average large dam is 65 years old. The American Society of Civil Engineers regularly issues a “report card” on U.S. infrastructure. In the most recent 2021 assessment, the nation’s dams were given a grade of D [partly due to] mounting, unaddressed structural issues ... Regular maintenance, reinforcements and retrofitting can extend a dam’s safe operation well past 100 years [but] many dams don’t receive routine repairs and are not aging gracefully. Just making the recommended fixes to most U.S. dams would cost an estimated $157.5 billion dollars, according to a 2023 report from the Association of State Dam Safety Officials. And then there’s the rest of the world, where data on necessary dam rehabilitation and estimated costs are often sparse or difficult to obtain. Yet even when governments or private companies know dam repairs are necessary, they may lack the political will and appropriate funding to take action.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/dams-worldwide-are-at-risk-of-catastrophic-failure/The ‘Forever’ Glaciers of America’s West Aren’t Forever Anymore
Mount Rainier is losing its glaciers. That is all the more striking as it is the most glacier-covered mountain in the contiguous United States. The changes reflect a stark global reality: Mountain glaciers are vanishing as the burning of fossil fuels heats up Earth’s atmosphere ... One small south-facing glacier, the Stevens, no longer exists and has been removed from the park’s inventory of glaciers. Two others, known as Pyramid and Van Trump, “are in serious peril,” according to an exhaustive survey published this summer by the Park Service, and may well be gone by the time the agency carries out the next survey in the coming year or two, said Scott R. Beason, the park geologist who led the study ... Climate change has upset that balance. Spring snowpack has declined since the mid 20th century. Temperatures have gone up. Even when the winter snow is good, an unusually warm spring melts the snow quickly, as it did this year. The face of Mount Rainier is changing, likely forever.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/12/climate/mount-rainier-glaciers-climate-change.htmlAntarctic sea-ice at 'mind-blowing' low alarms experts
The sea-ice surrounding Antarctica is well below any previous recorded winter level, satellite data shows, a worrying new benchmark for a region that once seemed resistant to global warming. "It's so far outside anything we've seen, it's almost mind-blowing," says Walter Meier, who monitors sea-ice with the National Snow and Ice Data Center. An unstable Antarctica could have far-reaching consequences, polar experts warn. Antarctica's huge ice expanse regulates the planet's temperature, as the white surface reflects the Sun's energy back into the atmosphere and also cools the water beneath and near it. Without its ice cooling the planet, Antarctica could transform from Earth's refrigerator to a radiator.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-66724246Earth [exceeds] six of nine planetary boundaries
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adh2458
see also https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/13/earth-well-outside-safe-operating-space-for-humanity-scientists-findBritain’s fish populations are in a ‘deeply troubling state’ – report
The UK’s fishing industry relies heavily on 10 key stocks. Five are either being overfished, including mackerel, which accounted for the largest volume of landings in the UK in 2021, or have reached critically low populations, such as North Sea cod. Many cod species are in crisis, pushing the popular fish close to population collapse ... The report examined a wider total of 104 populations of fish, most of the UK’s commercial fish stocks. A third (34%) are being overfished and only 45% are being sustainably fished. The rest could not be assessed due to a lack of data, it found. In addition to fishing pressure, the audit also assessed population size, finding that less than half (41%) were at a healthy size and a quarter were in critical condition. Again, the remainder could not be assessed due to a lack of data ... He stressed that the overfishing was not due to small inshore fishers that make up almost 80% of Britain’s fleet, but industrial fisheries. “Only 3% of our quota goes to small inshore fishermen in place like Newlyn,” he said. Three of the worst-managed populations – Celtic Sea cod, West of Scotland cod and Irish Sea whiting – are so low that the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (Ices), a body providing advice on delivering sustainable yields, has advised a total ban on all catches [but] repeated political decisions to set catch limits higher than scientifically advised continues to lead to overfishing.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/13/britains-fish-populations-are-in-a-deeply-troubling-state-report
reporting on a study at https://uk.oceana.org/reports/taking-stock-2023/From Carbon Sink to Source: The Stark Changes in Arctic Lakes
In the frozen north, lakes have, over millennia, locked up huge stores of carbon in their sediments ... In areas where rapidly thawing permafrost releases once-frozen stores of plants and other organic material into lakes, microbes are feasting on those extra helpings of carbon and belching out carbon dioxide and methane. Thermokarst lakes such as Alaska’s Big Trail Lake visibly boil with escaping greenhouse gases ... Across the Northern Hemisphere, 2023 will turn out to be the hottest summer on record, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service ... Greenland’s mean annual air temperature has climbed 3 degrees C since late last century. Lakes abruptly began to thaw nearly a week earlier ... “The data that we got so far from the carbon sensors shows all the lakes were carbon sources,” Hazuková says, leaning over a computer screen filled with numbers. “Between April and now, they were carbon sources the whole time ... what we saw this year was just unprecedented” ... Increased lake emissions could speed Arctic landscape thaw, fueling yet more emissions and more thaw. The impacts would be felt across the globe.
https://e360.yale.edu/features/greenland-lakes-climate-changeWater Quality Expected To Decline As Extreme Weather Becomes More Common, New Study Says
The increasing frequency of droughts, heatwaves, storms and floods is threatening the availability of water and its quality across the world, a study released Tuesday said, heightening scientist's existing concerns that climate change poses a severe threat to human health ... Research from Utrecht University in the Netherlands analyzed 965 cases of river water quality during extreme weather events worldwide, and found that the events impact the concentration of nutrients, metals, microorganisms and plastics in the water, as well as the temperature, dissolved oxygen level and salinity—the amount of dissolved salt. The study found that droughts and heatwaves are the most harmful to water quality—lesser quality water was found in 68% of rivers studied during these events—followed by rainstorms and floods, which impacted the quality of 51% of the rivers studied.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/maryroeloffs/2023/09/12/water-quality-expected-to-decline-as-extreme-weather-becomes-more-common-new-study-saysTop global ports may be unusable by 2050 without more climate action, report says
The Global Maritime Trends 2050 report, commissioned by shipping services group Lloyd's Register and the independent charity arm Lloyd's Register Foundation, looked at future scenarios. "Of the world’s 3,800 ports, a third are located in a tropical band vulnerable to the most powerful effects of climate change," a Lloyd's Register spokesperson said. "The ports of Shanghai, Houston and Lazaro Cardenas (in Mexico), some of the world’s largest, could potentially be inoperable by 2050 with a rise in sea levels of only 40 cm." Other key ports including Rotterdam are already under pressure, the report said.
https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/top-global-ports-may-be-unusable-by-2050-without-more-climate-action-report-2023-09-07/Climate change and insurance: The alarm bell we can’t afford to ignore
Insurance companies are pulling out of regions most susceptible to the impacts of climate change ... They’ve crunched the numbers and concluded that the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events—driven by climate change—have made some places effectively uninsurable ... This is very bad news because insurance is a cornerstone of our modern economy ... as climate change drives increases in risks and insurance companies become unable to charge large enough premiums to cover the risk, insurers are becoming increasingly reluctant to write homeowners policies in vulnerable areas. As insurance gets more expensive and harder to get, property values will begin to decline. This, in turn, erodes the property tax base ... As services degrade, even more residents may leave, amplifying the decline in property values ... A malfunctioning or non-existent insurance market will have ripple effects, destabilizing housing markets, undermining economies, and disrupting societal structures. The insurance companies are ringing the alarm bells — it’s high time to heed their warnings.
https://climateactionaustralia.wordpress.com/2023/09/12/climate-change-and-insurance-the-alarm-bell-we-cant-afford-to-ignore-climatecrisis-economiccrisis/As climate catastrophes rise, reinsurers reduce risks
Natural disasters are now happening so frequently that reinsurers -- the firms that sell insurance to insurance companies -- are scaling back their exposure to such risks [which] raises the question of whether individuals and businesses will be able to protect themselves against the effects of climate change if their insurance companies cannot even get coverage themselves ... Reinsurers identified climate change as the biggest risk they now face in a survey by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Centre for the Study of Financial Innovation ... "As these losses spiral upwards, the survey highlights growing concerns that some areas and types of business could become uninsurable" ... some companies "were already retreating from the property-casualty market in 2022 ... even the strongest reinsurers have now pulled back". Another ratings agency, S&P, said "more than half of the top 20 global reinsurers maintained or reduced their natural catastrophe exposures during the January 2023 renewals" ... "There was an under-estimation of the frequency of events," said Jean-Paul Conoscente, chief executive of the property and casualty branch of reinsurer Scor ... insurers may have little choice than increase their rates or in turn reduce the risks that they cover.
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230913-as-climate-catastrophes-rise-reinsurers-reduce-risksDrivers squeezed as auto insurance costs soar across the U.S.
Insurance executives and regulators blame rising repair costs and an increase in disaster-related claims
The rate hikes are also an attempt by insurers to make up for big payouts driven by floods and natural disasters, which insurers categorize as “catastrophe losses.” States prone to climate disasters have seen some of the steepest auto-rate hikes. In Colorado, car insurance premiums have increased 52 percent since last July as blizzards, tornadoes and hailstorms have led to an increased number of claims. And in Florida, premiums have soared 88 percent as insurers scramble to make up losses from hurricane-linked damage claims ... Car insurance is required by law and rates can go up or down based on factors that are out of any individual’s control, even with a clean driving record ... Some insurance companies are abandoning parts of the Southeast, leaving drivers with few options.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/09/05/auto-insurance-claims-disasters/40 Years Ago The EPA Made a Grim Prediction. It Came True.
https://www.sciencealert.com/40-years-ago-the-epa-made-a-grim-prediction-it-came-true
see also https://themessenger.com/tech/forty-years-ago-scientists-warned-about-climate-change-how-accurate-were-their-predictionsThe Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979
During the last 43 years the Arctic has been warming nearly four times faster than the globe, which is a higher ratio than generally reported in literature. We compared the observed Arctic amplification ratio with the ratio simulated by state-of-the-art climate models, and found that the observed four-fold warming ratio over 1979–2021 is an extremely rare occasion in the climate model simulations ... Our results indicate that the recent four-fold Arctic warming ratio is either an extremely unlikely event, or the climate models systematically tend to underestimate the amplification.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00498-3Marine heatwaves don’t just hit coral reefs. They can cause chaos on the seafloor
Over 90% of the heat trapped by greenhouse gases has gone into our oceans. So it’s no surprise marine heatwaves are getting much more intense and more frequent ... the most devastating marine heatwaves can penetrate right down to the sea bed ... More than a billion sea creatures died during a single heatwave off the coast of the western United States and Canada in 2021. This year, extreme heatwaves have hit large parts of the oceans during the northern summer. Fish and other creatures that can move do so, heading towards the poles or down deeper in search of cooler water. Those that can’t have to endure it or die.
https://theconversation.com/marine-heatwaves-dont-just-hit-coral-reefs-they-can-cause-chaos-on-the-seafloor-211902
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00966-4‘Sleeping giant’ drought threatens more disasters after record Canada wildfires
A season of record-breaking wildfires in British Columbia is nearly over, but officials in the Canadian province have warned that a persistent drought in the Canadian province is a “sleeping giant” which could usher in a fresh set of natural disasters, including devastating floods in the coming months [and] persistently arid conditions, which worsened an already-brutal fire season, are now the source of mounting concern among provincial officials ... Last year, the western-most province was hit with a prolonged drought that dried up key streams for spawning salmon. In one video clip, 65,000 dead salmon were found clogging a dried-up creek following scores of new heat records. This year, the drought is worse, with 80% of the province’s watersheds at drought level four or five – the two highest levels. “The best-case scenario we can hope for is extended gradual rain over long periods of time that gently recharge our reservoirs, gently recharge our stream systems and our ecosystems back to a healthy place,” said Ma. But an official with the province’s river forecast centre warned the best-case scenario is also the least likely [and] too much rain hitting the parched ground could be disastrous. In 2021, back-to-back atmospheric rivers led to surging rivers, mudslides, flooded cities and destroyed highways [and the disaster is believed to have cost nearly C$5bn (US$3.65bn) in non-insured damages. Ma pointed out that while the province had also experienced a drought in the weeks leading up to [those] floods, it was “nothing close to what we see this year”.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/07/canada-british-columbia-drought-wildfire-floodTorrential downpours in Greece deliver year's worth of rain in 18 hours
Greece and southern Europe have been slammed by torrential rain and devastating flooding. Climate scientists say extraordinarily high ocean temperatures are likely to blame, turning a "fairly common" weather set-up into a powerhouse of energy ... The rain has smashed records in parts of Central Greece. The coastal village of Zagora received more than 750 millimetres of rain – more than a years' worth — in the space of just 18 hours on Tuesday ... Omega blocks are a fairly regular occurrence across Europe during spring and summer [but] they didn't always deliver extreme weather — especially not to the degree that Greece had experienced. She said high sea surface temperatures in the Mediterranean Sea had contributed to the situation in Greece. "The situation would not be this bad if the Mediterranean Sea were not so hot," she said. "If you went there on summer vacation, it was almost impossible to actually go swim because it was so hot.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-08/greece-southern-europe-flood-omega-weather-pattern/102828274‘Major disruptor’: El Niño threatens the world’s rice supplies
Across south and south-east Asia, unpredictable weather is threatening supplies of rice, a staple food for more than half the world’s population. In July, India, the world’s largest rice exporter, imposed an export ban on non-basmati white rice after crops were damaged by heavy rains. The ban – along with concerns over the arrival of the El Niño phenomenon, which brings hotter, drier weather across the region – has caused prices in key exporting countries Thailand and Vietnam to soar ... the ripple effects have been felt widely ... When the last major El Niño event occurred in 2015-2016, south-east Asia experienced an output decline of 15m tonnes of rice [and] drove an increase in disease, brought drought and fuelled huge forest and peatland fires that led to a haze crisis across the region ... “I hope El Niño is just a little blip,” Horton says. If it isn’t, the prospects for agriculture would be “petrifying” ... Surasri Kidtimonton, the secretary-general of Thailand’s Office of the National Water Resources, predicted in August that the central plains, the country’s rice belt, could face a 40% drop in accumulated rain this season ... The effect of the climate crisis on rice, both in terms of its quantity and quality, is dramatic, says Dr Siwaret Arikit, director of the Rice Science Center at Kasetsart University in Thailand. “We have identified so many emerging diseases that were not very severe before. But after climate change, they have destroyed [crops].”
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/sep/07/major-disruptor-el-nino-threatens-the-worlds-rice-suppliesAerosol geoengineering will not stop Antarctic ice sheet from melting, simulations suggest
Artificially dimming the Sun by injecting aerosols into Earth’s atmosphere may help to delay a significant consequence of climate change in Antarctica, but not stop it — researchers in Switzerland and the UK have revealed. Through new simulations, a team led by Johannes Sutter at the University of Bern has showed that the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) can only be avoided if we eliminate global emissions of greenhouse gases as quickly as possible. Climate scientists have been warning that global efforts to end our reliance on fossil fuels are not happening fast enough to avoid dangerous consequences for Earth’s climate in the coming centuries. Indeed, some scientists argue that the situation is so urgent that we should investigate geoengineering schemes for cooling the Earth. “The window of opportunity to limit the global temperature increase to below two degrees is closing fast, so it is possible that technical measures to influence the climate will be seriously considered in the future,” says Sutter.
https://physicsworld.com/a/aerosol-geoengineering-will-not-stop-antarctic-ice-sheet-from-melting-simulations-suggest/
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01738-wLife and Death in America’s Hottest City
Across the U.S. each year, significantly more people die from heat than from any other weather-related event, including hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, and even rip currents. Many of these deaths are concentrated in and around Phoenix ... As temperatures increase worldwide, heat’s invisible danger will threaten more and more people. By 2030, according to a new climate analysis from the Washington Post and the nonprofit CarbonPlan, four billion people will be exposed to at least a month of extreme heat. (In dry climates, like Phoenix, that could mean a month of days reaching a hundred and twenty degrees Fahrenheit or higher.) By 2050, that number will increase to five billion, or more than half the planet’s population ... In the hot sun, or a very hot dwelling, the body must work to maintain its normal internal temperature, generally about ninety-eight degrees. The heart starts pumping more blood to the skin, where it can cool down. You will start sweating profusely, and might experience cramps or nausea. If you cannot find a way to cool off, your core temperature will quickly increase, forcing your heart to beat faster, which increases your metabolism, and generates more heat. As blood is diverted away from your internal organs, including your brain, they become starved of oxygen. You will feel dizzy, or faint. Once your body temperature rises above a hundred and three, heatstroke can begin. Sweating stops, and the skin will turn red, hot, and dry. Your head will throb. As the blood pressure falls in your brain, you will probably pass out. Sprawled, unconscious, in the hot sun, you will continue to overheat. Once your body reaches a hundred and five or a hundred and six degrees, your limbs might convulse, and, at a hundred and seven, your cell membranes melt, and proteins inside the cells unfold. Organ function starts to shut down; muscle tissues begin to disintegrate. It becomes increasingly difficult to cool you off fast enough to save your life. The heart just stops.
https://www.newyorker.com/science/elements/life-and-death-in-americas-hottest-cityOur forests have reached a tipping point
As extreme as this year's wildfire emissions have been, they are just the latest escalation in a multi-decade flood of CO2 pouring out of Canada's "managed" forests and forestry ... I turned to data in Canada's official national greenhouse gas inventory, plus recent wildfire data from the European Union's Earth Observation Program. The falling green line at the start of the chart shows that in the early 1990s, the forest was a valuable carbon sink, helping to slow global warming. That all changed after 2001, the tipping point year for Canada's managed forest. As the rising red line on the chart shows, since that year, the forest has emitted more CO2 than it has absorbed. A lot more. And this crisis is escalating. There is this feel-good myth in Canada that our massive forest is offsetting some of our massive fossil fuel emissions. That might have been true decades ago under our old, stable climate. But we’ve so weakened our forest that it has switched to hemorrhaging CO2 instead of absorbing it ... the roughly 3,700 MtCO2 lost to the atmosphere since 2001 is just the tip of our nation's gigantic forest-carbon iceberg. There is more than enough carbon remaining to fill Canadian summers with raging megafires and toxic smoke for centuries to come ... Canada's managed forest is a gigantic carbon bomb. Decades of surging emissions from it are a flashing red light, warning that we are at risk of it running away from our control.
https://www.nationalobserver.com/2023/08/21/analysis/our-forests-have-reached-tipping-pointEven the bayous of Louisiana are now threatened by wildfires
In just one month, 7 times more acres burned than in an average year
Lakes and ponds lay completely empty, their beds cracked. Swatches of earth that would be, on a normal year, lush and green had turned brown. Acres of evergreen trees — oaks and magnolias and azaleas, signatures of the state — had begun to wither. “It looks like West Texas” ... The fires follow a summer of record-breaking heat and dryness across Louisiana. Shreveport in northwest Louisiana had its second warmest summer on record; New Orleans had its second driest ... The drought, in combination with record-breaking heat, has sucked many of Louisiana’s characteristic bayous dry.
https://grist.org/wildfires/even-the-bayous-of-louisiana-are-now-threatened-by-wildfires/Amid record heat, even indoor factory workers enter dangerous terrain
Extreme heat caused by human-induced climate change has wreaked havoc on the bodies of outdoor workers. Now, heat scientists and labor researchers say even those who labor indoors are not safe. Across Southeast Asia’s manufacturing hubs, rising temperatures, mixed with high humidity, are leaving workers baking in poorly ventilated sweatshops ... the pace of climate change is driving temperatures beyond what even the most heat-adapted communities can handle [and] Southeast Asia may not respond to rising temperatures until it is too late, scientists say ... because it is already so hot, every incremental rise in mercury pushes communities closer to the “human limit” of what’s tolerable, Lee said. “Our leeway,” he added, “is getting tighter and tighter.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/31/extreme-heat-indoor-work-asia/Climate change raising risks of financial disaster for homeowners, insurers and bankers
The rising weather-related risks from climate change, from coastal hurricanes to western wildfires, are increasingly pinching insurance companies, which are raising rates and pulling back from parts of the country in an effort to stay in business ... Banks could be next, said Dennis Kelleher of public interest nonprofit Better Markets. “The banking crisis is only right behind the climate and insurance crisis,” Kelleher told The Hill. “Every time an insurance company sounds an alarm, the banks ought to be shaking in their boots, because they’re getting the bill” ... some insurance companies have left areas where the risk is highest, leaving an increasing numbers of Americans without insurance, according to The Wall Street Journal. That’s a risk for banks since nearly two-thirds of U.S. homeowners are paying a mortgage to a lender — generally a bank. Banks, in turn, use these homes as collateral in a dizzying array of loans and associated financial derivatives — all of which are based, Kelleher argued, on the increasingly obsolete assumption that the properties themselves are backed by insurance ... Kelleher argued that a wave of defaults is coming — one that will hit small community and regional banks first. “We’re not talking about a decade, we’re talking over the next several years of there being significant bank and financial system consequences for what the insurance companies are experiencing right now,” he said.
https://thehill.com/policy/equilibrium-sustainability/4180007-climate-change-raising-risks-of-financial-disaster-for-home-owners-insurers-and-bankers/Home insurers cut natural disasters from policies as climate risks grow
At least five large U.S. property insurers — including Allstate, American Family, Nationwide, Erie Insurance Group and Berkshire Hathaway — have told regulators that extreme weather patterns caused by climate change have led them to stop writing coverages in some regions, exclude protections from various weather events, and raise monthly premiums and deductibles. Major insurers say they will cut out damage caused by hurricanes, wind and hail from policies underwriting property along coastlines and in wildfire country, according to a voluntary survey conducted by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners, a group of state officials who regulate rates and policy forms. Insurance providers are also more willing to drop existing policies in some locales as they become more vulnerable to natural disasters ... Other changes will come. “More targeted hurricane risk mitigation actions are being finalized and will start by year-end 2023,” Nationwide told regulators.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/09/03/natural-disaster-climate-insurance/Olive Oil Prices Surge as Persistent Drought Ravages Mediterranean Groves
Olive trees in Spain and neighboring countries have little fruit, which itself could wither away
Cano, like thousands of other producers in Andalusia, has battled two years of drought and high temperatures. [He] says, “I will maybe have 10 percent of my normal yield.” Spain is the world’s largest olive oil producer, accounting for nearly half of global production. By some estimates, Andalusia accounts for the majority of the country’s output ... In 2022 the country’s production was around half of its recent average. Without a lot of rain, and soon, the current drought and heat will knock the 2023 harvest down to similar levels ... Elsewhere in Spain, extreme weather events devastated melon, watermelon and citrus crops. In Sicily, olive oil producers say unseasonal rainfall and cold weather will halve their output. “Sicily normally produces 50,000 [metric] tons of olive oil per year,” says Mario Terrasi of the Oleum Sicilia cooperative. “This year, if we reach 30,000, I think we’ll pop a good bottle.” And in other parts of Italy, farmer associations have said that heat waves, floods and hailstones the size of clementines damaged local melon, watermelon, cherry and wine grape crops ... “The Mediterranean basin is a hotspot of climate change,” says Ramona Magno, a researcher at the Italian National Research Council’s Institute of BioEconomy, part of the Italian National Research Council ... Much of Spain’s land now faces climatic conditions that could lead to desertification. “The moisture of the soil is disappearing; wells are getting empty; underground waters are going lower and lower.”
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/olive-oil-prices-surge-as-persistent-drought-ravages-mediterranean-groves/Don’t Look Down
As permafrost thaws, the ground beneath Alaska is collapsing
Temperatures in Fairbanks have shifted so much that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officially changed the city’s subarctic designation in 2021, downgrading it to “warm summer continental.” As the climate warms, the ancient ice that used to cover an estimated 85 percent of Alaska is thawing. As it streams away, there are places where the ground is now collapsing ... potential homebuyers who want to avoid it are left to guesswork. “There’s no comprehensive map of permafrost,” said Kellen Spillman, the director of the department of community planning for the Fairbanks North Star Borough ... Romanovsky predicts that within a decade, the destruction in most parts of Alaska will get worse [and] regions with continuous and ice-rich permafrost, like those in northwest Alaska, will see the worst damage ... thawing permafrost makes it difficult to build or even get a loan for a new home. “Where do you get your insurance? Through which bank can you finance to even get your home fixed? When the ground is falling underneath you, what do you do?”
https://grist.org/science/alaska-permafrost-thawing-ice-climate-change/Rapid shifts from drought to downpour occurring more often
New research shows that wild swings from severe drought to heavy rains are becoming more common with climate change in many parts of the world and that feedback loops from the land itself are likely contributing to the trend ... “We are especially concerned with the sudden shift from drought to flood,” said coauthor Zong-Liang Yang, a professor at The University of Texas at Austin Jackson School of Geosciences. “Society usually has difficulty responding to one kind of natural disaster like drought, but now you suddenly have floods too. And this has been happening in many places.” The study was published in the journal Nature Communications Earth & Environment. The team looked at three global sets of meteorological and hydrological data from 1980 to 2020 to document the trend ... such rapid shifts are expected to become more likely with climate change.
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/999996
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00922-2America Is Using Up Its Groundwater Like There’s No Tomorrow
Overuse is draining and damaging aquifers nationwide, a New York Times data investigation revealed.
Many of the aquifers that supply 90 percent of the nation’s water systems, and which have transformed vast stretches of America into some of the world’s most bountiful farmland, are being severely depleted ... Groundwater loss is hurting breadbasket states like Kansas, where the major aquifer beneath 2.6 million acres of land can no longer support industrial-scale agriculture. Corn yields have plummeted ... in New York State, overpumping is threatening drinking-water wells on Long Island, birthplace of the modern American suburb ... In other areas, including parts of Utah, California and Texas, so much water is being pumped up that it is causing roads to buckle, foundations to crack and fissures to open in the earth. And around the country, rivers that relied on groundwater have become streams or trickles or memories. “There is no way to get that back,” Don Cline, the associate director for water resources at the United States Geological Survey, said of disappearing groundwater. “There’s almost no way to convey how important it is.”
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/08/28/climate/groundwater-drying-climate-change.htmlIndia To Ban Sugar Exports In Addition To Rice—As Corn, Soybeans And More Crops Falter [Globally] In Extreme Heat And Drought
India is the world's second-largest exporter of sugar behind Brazil, according to the International Sugar Organization, and the largest consumer and producer—but this season has only exported 6.1 million tons compared to the 11.1 million in the 2021-2022 season. India has also limited its exports of non-basmati white rice in a move that took about a fifth of international rice stocks off the market, while growers in China have seen reduced rice yields over the last two decades and farmers in Pakistan and California saw too much and too little rain, respectively, devastate their yield. For Texas growers of sorghum, a grain used to feed livestock and make cereals, the summer's unrelenting heat wave has caused the plants to dry up and fall over—one farmer described them as "cannibalizing" and "eating itself up trying to survive." Through the Sun Belt—where peanuts, corn and cotton are usually plentiful—triple-digit heat has led to lowered expectations for cotton crops and late-planted corn while drought in the Midwest means Kansas soybeans, which thrive in 85 degrees, are also struggling. Some areas of Florida are experiencing their driest year to date in terms of rainfall, and Austin's summer is the fourth-driest on record. In China, fields and grain drops have been damaged in the north by heavy rain and El Nino rains are expected to affect the corn planting season in parts of Argentina.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/maryroeloffs/2023/08/23/india-to-ban-sugar-exports-in-addition-to-rice-as-corn-soybeans-and-more-crops-falter-in-extreme-heat-and-drought/Brutal heat wave developing over central U.S., with excessive heat watches in Midwest
Dueling heat waves — across Texas and the South, and in the Pacific Northwest to northern Plains — are joining forces to deliver the hottest stretch of weather this year to the central Plains and parts of the Midwest. Underneath the heat dome, dozens of daily high marks are at risk ... weather models are suggesting that temperatures could run 15 degrees or more above average — punishing, unflinching heat. Summer 2023 has featured extreme heat bouncing from place to place, while focusing fury on spots like the Desert Southwest and Gulf Coast. This expansion of the heat dome may be the most wide-reaching of the summer.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/08/17/heat-wave-texas-excessive-heat-warning/South-east Australia marine heatwave forecast to be literally off the scale
Australia’s south-east could be in for a marine heatwave that is literally off the scale, raising the prospect of significant losses in fishing and aquaculture. The Bureau of Meteorology has forecast a patch of the Tasman Sea off Tasmania and Victoria could be at least 2.5C above average from September to February, and it could get hotter. Oceanographer Grant Smith said the colour-coded scale the bureau uses to map forecast sea surface temperature anomalies stops at 2.5C. “We didn’t account for anomalies that high when we developed this ... it could be 3C, it could be 3.5C, but we can’t see how high it goes,” he said ... “we’d expect to see impacts on remaining kelp forest in the region,” he said, noting that Tasmania’s giant kelp species had already lost 95% of its historical range.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/aug/27/south-east-australia-marine-heatwave-forecast-to-be-literally-off-the-scaleMilan [Italy] records hottest day in 260 years as Europe sizzles in another heat wave
The Milano Brera weather station recorded an average 91.4 degrees Fahrenheit on Wednesday, the highest since it started registering temperatures in 1763. The northern Italian city's previous record, of 91 degrees, was set in 2003, when a killer heat wave left more than 70,000 people across Europe dead. Milan also recorded the highest minimum temperature on Thursday at 84 degrees, ARPA said ... Spain has been sweltering under its fourth heat wave of the season, while Greece is struggling for the second time in a month against major wildfires. The sizzling temperatures experienced by several countries in southern Europe over the past days are part of a series of ferociously hot, dry summers caused by climate change.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/italy-milan-records-hottest-day-260-years-europe-sizzles/Europe is heading into another heatwave
This is expected to expand from Spain to central Europe lasting until at least next week, according to Swiss and French weather agencies. It is forecast to engulf southern France, Switzerland, southern Germany, and northern Italy. Weather forecasters predict temperatures up to 42C in Italy, 40C in France and 37C in Switzerland. Climate change makes heatwaves more intense and more frequent, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has confirmed.
https://www.euronews.com/green/2023/08/18/europe-is-heading-into-another-heatwave-here-are-all-the-areas-affectedGreece Battles Its Most Widespread Wildfires on Record
Wildfires ravaged northern Greece for a fifth consecutive day on Wednesday and forced the evacuation of settlements on the outskirts of the capital, Athens. The authorities said they were battling scores of blazes around the country after weeks of searing heat turned many areas into tinderboxes. “It is the worst summer for fires since records began,” said Vassilis Kikilias, the civil protection minister ... By Wednesday evening, it was clear that on both major fronts for the wildfires, in the north and near Athens, they remained largely uncontrolled ... Greece is one of a set of countries straddling the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East that will become hotter and drier faster than most of the rest of the world as climate change advances. This summer has been a preview of the future, which is coming fast.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/23/world/europe/greece-wildfires-athens.htmlClimate change has doubled the chance of weather fueling wildfires in Canada: scientists
The chance of the dry, hot weather currently fueling extreme wildfires in Canada has at least doubled due to climate change. That is the conclusion drawn by an international group of climate scientists in an analysis. This type of fire-hazardous weather is no longer a rarity, the researchers from Canada, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom made clear in their publication ... The climate scientists associated with the World Weather Attribution project have calculated how much the unprecedented fires are related to global warming. They found a strong connection and warned that the incendiary weather, which is a significant contributor to the fires, is becoming more common.
https://nltimes.nl/2023/08/22/climate-change-doubled-chance-weather-fueling-wildfires-canada-scientists
see also https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/22/climate-change-canada-wildfires-twice-as-likely
reporting on a study at https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-more-than-doubled-the-likelihood-of-extreme-fire-weather-conditions-in-eastern-canada/Canada wildfires: At least 30,000 households in British Columbia told to evacuate
Two huge fires in the Shuswap region merged overnight, destroying blocks of houses and other buildings. To the south, travel to the waterside city of Kelowna has been restricted, and smoke from nearby fires hangs over Lake Okanagan ... a huge fire continues to edge towards the city of Yellowknife. An official deadline to evacuate the city - the capital of Canada's Northwest Territories - lapsed on Friday ... Canada is having its worst wildfire season on record, with at least 1,000 fires burning across the country, according to the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (CIFFC). Experts say climate change increases the risk of the hot, dry weather that is likely to fuel wildfires.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-66562610Kelowna declares state of emergency after wildfire jumps Okanagan Lake, prompting more evacuations
Thousands of people have been forced from their homes in B.C.'s Okanagan, with evacuation orders issued after a wildfire jumped Lake Okanagan, sparking spot wildfires in Kelowna. A state of emergency has been declared by the City of Kelowna, which has a population of almost 150,000. Officials say the McDougall Creek wildfire has grown rapidly after being discovered Tuesday about 10 kilometres northwest of West Kelowna, which is on the western side of Lake Okanagan, while Kelowna is on the east.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/what-you-need-to-know-about-bc-wildfires-aug-17-2023-1.6938796It Is No Longer Possible to Escape What We Have Done to Ourselves
Serge Schmemann, a member of the NY Times editorial board, reported from Lac Labelle, Quebec, where he has a cottage.
After decades of being told that we humans were knowingly, fundamentally and radically altering the climate of our planet, the eerie orange haze had invaded the zone in which my family had always thought we could take refuge. This was not another report of melting icecaps, rising oceans, blistering heat or unusual tornadoes somewhere far away; this was a horizon-to-horizon pall over us, rising from infernos across the great Canadian north that had been ignited by record temperatures, record drought and ceaseless lightning storms. Nothing like it had ever happened before — these wildfires began far earlier and spread far faster than usual, and they have burned far more boreal forest than any fire in Canada’s modern history ... And as the summer unfolded, it became evident that it’s not just smoke, and not just Canada. This has been the summer from climate hell all across Earth, when it ceased being possible to escape or deny what we have done to our planet and ourselves. “Even I am surprised by this year,” said Michael Flannigan, a professor at Thompson Rivers University in Kamloops, British Columbia, who has been studying the interaction of fire and climate for over 35 years. “Temperatures are rising at the rate we thought they would, but the effects are more severe, more frequent, more critical. It’s crazy and getting crazier.” The extreme weather conditions around the world are interconnected and insidiously self-accelerating ... “Those of us who do the science have been shouting ‘1.5 or die’ for years, trying to warn people” [but] that target no longer seems possible ... In the news, other tensions and anxieties are again taking precedence over climate change. But it’s hard, very hard, to look out on the familiar lake and forests the way we used to, before the sun was reduced to a murky red dot in an orange sky and an orange pall descended on the children playing on the beach.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/23/opinion/canada-wildfires-climate-change.htmlTropical forests may be warming to a point where plant photosynthesis fails, study warns
In a study published recently in the journal Nature, scientists concluded that tropical forests could be drawing closer to the temperature threshold where leaves lose the ability to create life-sustaining energy by combining CO2, water and sunlight. “When leaves reach a certain temperature, their photosynthetic machinery breaks down,” said Gregory R. Goldsmith, a study co-author and assistant professor of biological sciences at Chapman University. “But this study is really the first study to establish how close tropical forest canopies may be to these limits,” he told reporters recently. Researchers said that a leaf’s ability to perform photosynthesis — and produce oxygen as a byproduct — is permanently lost above 116 degrees Fahrenheit and results in its death. New research discovered that some tropical leaves are already surpassing that critical temperature ... “Photosynthesis typically starts to decrease at much lower temperatures than 116 degrees, but that is fully reversible,” said Martijn Slot, a study author and forest ecologist with the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute. “When conditions improve, photosynthesis resumes. Above 116 degrees, the damage is irreversible.” [Some plants] are already reaching critical temperature thresholds.
https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2023-08-26/global-warming-could-cause-leaf-photosynthesis-to-fail
see also https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/plants/tropical-rainforests-could-get-too-hot-for-photosynthesis-and-die-if-climate-crisis-continues-scientists-warn
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06391-zRolling blackouts, sudden shutdowns: Extreme heat boils — and roils — the Middle East
Soaring demand for cooling — fans, air conditioners, fridges and freezers — is overtaxing electrical grids long beset by war damage, mismanagement or corruption ... have to contend with infrastructure that’s simply not designed to cope with the increased stress ... But a strategy of shutdowns and public holidays comes with knock-on economic effects that risk negating any benefit. “The very, very crude sort of assessment of the impact is that ... a holiday means people don’t work, and you lose 1/365th of your annual gross domestic product,” said Ziad Daoud, chief emerging markets economist for Bloomberg Economics. Even for those sectors that continue operating, Daoud added, “productivity is already lower in hot climates, and if you remove the air conditioning, productivity will be massively hit.”
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2023-08-22/power-blackouts-shutdowns-extreme-summer-heat-middle-eastAustria’s fastest melting glacier gives up decades-old corpse
An alpine guide has discovered on Austria’s fastest melting glacier what are believed to be the remains of an Austrian who died more than 20 years ago, according to a statement from local police. The discovery follows the finding of other human remains on the same glacier less than two months ago. Climate change has accelerated the melting of glaciers, with the retreating ice releasing bodies of alpinists it has held for years, sometimes even decades.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/23/austrias-fastest-melting-glacier-gives-up-decades-old-corpseThousands of penguins die in Antarctic ice breakup
A catastrophic die-off of emperor penguin chicks has been observed in the Antarctic, with up to 10,000 young birds estimated to have been killed. The sea-ice underneath the chicks melted and broke apart before they could develop the waterproof feathers needed to swim in the ocean. The birds most likely drowned or froze to death. Dr Peter Fretwell, from the British Antarctic Survey (BAS), said the wipeout was a harbinger of things to come. More than 90% of emperor penguin colonies are predicted to be all but extinct by the end of the century, as the continent's seasonal sea-ice withers in an ever-warming world. Dr Fretwell and colleagues report the die-off in the journal Communications Earth & Environment.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-66492767
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00927-xIndonesia’s tropical ‘Eternity Glaciers’ could vanish within a few years, experts warn
Two of the world’s few tropical glaciers in Indonesia are melting, and their ice may vanish by 2026 or sooner, as an El Niño weather pattern lengthens the dry season, the country’s geophysics agency has said ... But little could be done to prevent the shrinking, he said, adding that the event could disrupt the regional ecosystem and trigger a rise in the global sea level within a decade. “We are now in a position to document the glaciers’ extinction,” added Donaldi, a coordinator of the climate research division of the agency, known as BMKG.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/25/indonesia-tropical-glaciers-melting-el-ninoSwitzerland: Meteorologists reach record 5,298 metres before finding zero degrees
"The radiosonde from Payerne on the night of 20 to 21 August 2023 measured the 0°C isotherm at 5,298 m, which is a record since measurements began in 1954", MétéoSuisse said ... Switzerland, like much of Europe, is currently experiencing a heatwave, with temperatures exceeding 30°C below 800 metres since Friday.
https://www.euronews.com/green/2023/08/21/switzerland-meteorologists-reach-record-5298-metres-before-finding-zero-degrees‘Forever chemicals’ found in 76% of Pennsylvania streams sampled
USGS sampled streams across Pennsylvania and found 76% of them contained the presence of at least one compound from the per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) family, according the first study of its kind looking at the problem across a single state and associating possible sources ... USGS says that the chemicals’ persistence in the environment and prevalence make them a top concern for water quality. Some health effects associated with PFAS include decreased fertility, testicular and kidney cancers, high cholesterol, autoimmune and thyroid problems, alterations in hormone functioning [endocrine disruptor], and developmental effects ... Results of the study, conducted in partnership with the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, were published recently in the journal Science of The Total Environment.
https://www.inquirer.com/science/pennsylvania-forever-chemicals-pfas-usgs-streams-20230824.html‘Forever Chemicals’ Are Everywhere. What Are They Doing to Us?
The chemicals, many of which repel water, oil and grease and can often withstand high heat, are used in countless consumer products. They also linger in the environment. The exposure, they found, damaged the rodents’ immune system ... Around the same time, other potential health impacts of PFAS were starting to receive attention [such as the] cholesterol and cancer outcomes highlighted by the DuPont study and the decreased vaccine response demonstrated in the Faroese children ... [endocrine disruptors], metabolism and immune dysfunction, liver disease, asthma, infertility and neurobehavioral issues — their diversity [potentially because] “PFAS has a great deal of complexity” ... In the late ’70s and early ’80s, the companies were seeing alarming signals in their animal studies — in one study, monkeys exposed to extreme levels of PFAS died — and among their employees. In 1979, DuPont observed that workers who had contact with the chemicals appeared to have higher rates of abnormal liver function. In 1981, 3M researchers alerted their DuPont colleagues that pregnant rats exposed to PFAS had pups with eye irregularities; that year, an employee at a Teflon plant gave birth to a child with one nostril, a keyhole pupil and a serrated eyelid. In 1984, DuPont detected PFAS in the tap water of three communities near its West Virginia factory. In 1998, 3M told the Environmental Protection Agency that it had tried and failed to identify members of the public without PFOS — a type of PFAS it was producing — in their blood ... DuPont’s human and animal research wouldn’t become known until 2001, after a lawsuit forced the company to turn over documentation related to PFOA to opposing counsel ... They are in flamingos in the Caribbean and plovers in South Korea. They are in alligators. They are in Antarctic snow. In Europe, they’ve been discovered in organic eggs; in the United States certain states have found them in produce and meat. Last year, a study of PFAS in freshwater fish in the United States revealed median levels so elevated that eating a single serving could be equivalent to drinking PFAS-contaminated water for a month ... PFAS may also throw off the endocrine system, which is driven by the hypothalamus region of the brain and encompasses hormone-producing organs throughout the body ... they wonder if PFAS are “obesogens,” chemicals thought to disrupt the system’s metabolism, potentially affecting the body’s ability to maintain a stable energy balance. “Obesity is an epidemic,” Grandjean told me. “And we can’t explain it by lack of physical activity or changing habits” ... “Are PFAS the cause of ADHD? Do they increase the risk of autism? There is plenty of evidence to say we should be concerned” ... In 2020, Linda Birnbaum and 15 other researchers published their scientific rationale for the regulatory management of PFAS as a chemical class in the journal Environmental Science and Technology Letters. “They are all problematic,” she says. “When they’re tested, they all do the same stuff.” Scott Belcher, an associate professor of biological sciences at North Carolina State University’s Center for Environmental and Health Effects of PFAS, concurs: “I have not seen a PFAS tested for toxicity that’s not toxic.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/16/magazine/pfas-toxic-chemicals.htmlHow climate change could cause a home insurance meltdown
California isn't alone. Insurance companies in states like Colorado, Louisiana and Florida are paring down business to shield themselves from ballooning losses as climate change fuels more-intense disasters. Earlier this month, the insurance arm of AAA announced it would not renew some "higher exposure" home insurance policies in Florida, and Farmers Insurance announced it will stop offering new home insurance policies in the state and won't renew thousands of existing ones, in part because of rising losses from hurricanes. Nationwide, millions of homeowners are having to find different kinds of coverage, which typically come at a higher price with less protection. If people can't get insurance, they can't get mortgages ... Meanwhile, the cost of disasters keeps going up. People continue moving to coastal regions vulnerable to hurricanes and to rural, forested areas around the country that are prone to wildfires ... The United States is "marching steadily towards an uninsurable future," says Dave Jones, a law professor at the University of California, Berkeley and the state's former insurance commissioner ... A spate of devastating climate-driven hurricanes and wildfires in recent years has only exacerbated the problem, causing so much damage that many small insurance companies have gone bankrupt, and larger companies have continued to pull out of the riskiest areas.
https://www.npr.org/2023/07/22/1186540332/how-climate-change-could-cause-a-home-insurance-meltdownAustralia’s Climate Risks Are Making Home Insurance Unaffordable
Australian home insurance premiums jumped the most in two decades in the past year ... Median home insurance premiums surged 28% [and] the number of “affordability stressed” households — those spending more than one month’s worth of their gross annual income on home insurance – climbed to 1.24 million ... “We expect these home insurance affordability pressures are likely to continue to worsen due to climate change,” Paddam said.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-13/australia-s-climate-risks-are-making-home-insurance-unaffordableWe could be 16 years into a methane-fueled 'termination' event significant enough to end an ice age
"A termination is a major reorganization of the Earth's climate system ... Within the termination, which takes thousands of years, there's this abrupt phase, which only takes a few decades," Nisbet said. "During that abrupt phase, the methane soars up, and it's probably driven by tropical wetlands." Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas released both by human activities — including fossil-fuel burning, landfills and agriculture — and natural processes, such as decomposition in wetlands. Human emissions soared in the 1980s with the expansion of the natural gas industry and stabilized in the 1990s, Nisbet said. But in late 2006, something "very, very odd" happened, he said. Methane started rising again, but there was no dramatic shift in human activity to blame [and] this rise was accelerating. By 2020, methane was increasing at the fastest rate on record ... In the new study, published July 14 in the journal Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Nisbet and colleagues compared current trends in atmospheric methane to the abrupt phase of warming during ice age terminations. "The closest analogy we have to what we think is happening today is these terminations," Nisbet said.
https://www.space.com/climate-change-termination-event-end-ice-age
reporting on a study at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GB007875Scientists Zero In On Timing, Causes Of Ice Age Mammal Extinctions In Southern California
Radiocarbon dating on bones in the La Brea Tar Pits leads archaeologist Dr. Michael Waters to warn that history may be repeating itself.
Waters says the team’s findings reveal that Ice Age mammal populations in southern California were steady from 15,000 to around 13,250 years ago. Afterward, there was a sharp decline in the population of the seven animals studied, and they all became extinct between 13,070 to 12,900 years ago ... humans arrived in North America’s Pacific coast 16,000 to 15,000 years ago and lived alongside the megafauna for 2,000 to 3,000 years before their extinction ... Waters says the impact of hunting on the demise of the megafauna likely was minor because of the low population of humans on the landscape. However, the fires would have been devastating, resulting in the loss of habitat causing the rapid decline and extinction of the megafauna in southern California. The study suggests these fires were ignited by humans, which had increased in number by that time. “Fire is a way that small numbers of humans can have a large impact over a broad area,” said Waters, who also cautions that climate changes observed in present-day California are similar to those of the late Pleistocene.
https://today.tamu.edu/2023/08/17/scientists-zero-in-on-timing-causes-of-ice-age-mammal-extinctions-in-southern-california/
reporting on a study at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abo359425 Countries, Housing One-quarter of the Population, Face Extremely High Water Stress
One-quarter of the global population face extremely high water stress each year, regularly using up almost their entire available water supply. And at least 50% of the world’s population — around 4 billion people — live under highly water-stressed conditions for at least one month of the year ... Globally, demand has more than doubled since 1960. Increased water demand is often the result of growing populations and industries like irrigated agriculture, livestock, energy production and manufacturing. Meanwhile, lack of investment in water infrastructure, unsustainable water use policies or increased variability due to climate change can all affect the available water supply ... A country facing “extreme water stress” means it is using at least 80% of its available supply ... water stress in these countries is mostly driven by low supply, paired with demand from domestic, agricultural and industrial use. The most water-stressed regions are the Middle East and North Africa, where 83% of the population is exposed to extremely high water stress, and South Asia, where 74% is exposed ... By 2050, an additional 1 billion people are expected to live with extremely high water stress, even if the world limits global temperature rise to 1.3 degrees C to 2.4 degrees C (2.3 degrees F to 4.3 degrees F) by 2100, an optimistic scenario ... For the Middle East and North Africa, this means 100% of the population will live with extremely high water stress by 2050.
https://www.wri.org/insights/highest-water-stressed-countries
see also https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/interactive/2023/water-scarcity-map-solutions/Wildfire smoke is warming the planet more than previously thought, scientists say
Among the complex mix of particles that make up wildfire smoke, an abundant but thus far unknown kind has been shown to trap a surprising amount of heat, according to new research. These results indicate that wildfires, which are expected to become harsher and more frequent in the coming years due to human-induced climate change, are heating Earth to a greater extent than previously thought ... this latest research, which was a collaboration between NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), add a strong urgency to better understand the warming effects of brown carbon. These particles are technically included in existing climate models, but their warming effects remain a huge uncertainty, and it's also worth noting that they're released into the atmosphere during the burning of fossil fuels as well. "Typically, climate models ignore or dismiss organic carbon as insignificant compared to black carbon when it comes to warming, but that is not what field observations reveal," Rajan Chakrabarty, an associate professor of energy, environment and chemical engineering at the Washington University in St. Louis and the new study's lead author, said.
https://www.space.com/wildfire-smoke-warming-planet-study
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-023-01237-9Winter heatwave in Andes is sign of things to come, scientists warn
Exceptional winter heat in the Andean mountains of South America has surged to 37C, prompting local scientists to warn the worst may be yet to come as human-caused climate disruption and El Niño cause havoc across the region. The heatwave in the central Chilean Andes is melting the snow below 3,000 metres (9,840ft), which will have knock-on effects for people living in downstream valleys who depend on meltwater during the spring and summer. Tuesday was probably the warmest winter day in northern Chile in 72 years ... “The main problem is how the high temperatures exacerbate droughts (in eastern Argentina and Uruguay) and accelerate snow melting.” Water shortages are already a dire problem in and around Uruguay’s capital, Montevideo, where reservoirs are running dry and tap water is no longer drinkable.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/aug/06/winter-heatwave-andes-sign-things-come-scientists-warn‘The extreme events scare me the most’: climatologist warns of Italy’s vulnerability to climate crisis
[Italy] has become known, at least by scientists, as Europe’s climate risk hotspot owing to a range of vulnerabilities including its geographical location, diverse topography and densely inhabited Mediterranean coastal areas. “There are three elements that make Italy one of the most fragile places in the world,” said Mercalli. “One is that the Mediterranean is smaller in size compared with other oceans and is warming up more quickly. The second is that we are located in between the tropical climate of Africa and temperate climate of northern Europe – the heat in Sicily is now more like Africa, while northern Italy is like Sicily was 50 years ago. The third is the crowded Mediterranean – any extreme event risks a heavy impact in inhabited areas” ... But despite these stark facts, there has been scant action by successive governments while the strategy of the current rightwing administration, led by Giorgia Meloni, is vague. Before taking power last October, Meloni had railed against the “ultra-ecologists of the left” and in July said Italy cannot be expected to “dismantle” its economy and businesses in order to implement the “ecological transition”. Her deputy, Matteo Salvini, last week joked on TV about the heatwaves and melting glaciers, saying “summers are hot, winters are cold”.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/04/the-extreme-events-scare-me-the-most-climatologist-warns-of-italys-vulnerability-to-climate-crisisLand and sea surface temperature hotter than ever before
Since April, the global average daily surface temperature of the Earth's oceans (excluding the polar regions) has remained at record levels, which is simply far too warm for the time of year. For example, according to Copernicus analyses, daily average maritime temperatures had already reached 20.94 degrees Celsius on July 19. In addition, record surface water temperatures have persisted in the North Atlantic [and] according to data from the US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), preliminary measurements show the sea surface in the North Atlantic actually reached an all-time high temperature of 24.9 degrees Celsius during the last week of July this year. NOAA scientist Xungang Yin told the AFP news agency that sea surface temperatures are expected to "continue to rise in August." This situation is extreme. "We've seen maritime heatwaves before, but this is very persistent and spread out over a large surface area" in the North Atlantic, [said] Karina von Schuckmann of the Mercator Ocean International research center.
https://www.dw.com/en/sea-surface-temperature-hotter-than-ever-before/a-66444694‘We’re Changing the Clouds.’ an Unforeseen Test of Geoengineering is Fueling Record Ocean Warmth
Pollution cuts have diminished “ship track” clouds, adding to global warming For years, the north Atlantic was warming more slowly than other parts of the world. But now it has caught up, and then some. Last month, the sea surface there surged to a record 25°C—nearly 1°C warmer than the previous high, set in 2020—and temperatures haven’t even peaked yet. “This year it’s been crazy,” says Tianle Yuan, an atmospheric physicist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. The obvious and primary driver of this trend is society’s emissions of greenhouse gases [but] researchers are now waking up to another factor, one that could be filed under the category of unintended consequences: disappearing clouds known as ship tracks. Regulations imposed in 2020 by the United Nations’s International Maritime Organization (IMO) have cut ships’ sulfur pollution by more than 80% and improved air quality worldwide [but] by dramatically reducing the number of ship tracks, the planet has warmed up faster, several new studies have found. That trend is magnified in the Atlantic, where maritime traffic is particularly dense. In the shipping corridors, the increased light represents a 50% boost to the warming effect of human carbon emissions.
https://www.science.org/content/article/changing-clouds-unforeseen-test-geoengineering-fueling-record-ocean-warmthThe climate wrecking ball striking food supply
The recent global heat wave, deadly floods across China's grain belt and wildfires that spanned several continents have put a spotlight on how climate change may wreak havoc on the world's most-consumed food crops. Studies show that future climate projections indicate significant reductions of crop yields in high-risk regions. Corn, wheat and rice together make up a major portion of the human diet, accounting for roughly 42% of the world's food calories ... [at warming of 2°C] corn yield will decrease worldwide, and increase little under global warming by 1.5 °C (2.7°F) ... loss risk of corn by 2°C "much more serious." The latest UN climate change report suggests that human actions may have rendered the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C target, and possibly even its 2°C benchmark, infeasible [and] also found that climate change has fueled "mostly negative" yield impacts across sub-Saharan Africa, South America, the Caribbean, southern Asia and western and southern Europe ... One example: Rice production in India, the world's largest rice exporter, has been constrained by both droughts and heavy rains. On July 20, the Indian government banned exports on non-basmati white rice ... "We should be anticipating some drastic supply shocks," [said] Seungki Lee, agricultural economist at Ohio State University ... "Temperatures are higher, productivity is lower. The impacts are already here. They've already happened," said Ortiz-Bobea. Some experts, like Ortiz-Bobea, are skeptical of claims that U.S. agriculture is becoming more climate-resilient ... "It's pretty much every summer now that a record-breaking heatwave is happening, not just in one breadbasket, but multiple breadbaskets around the world," Lesk said. "We are currently heading into a climate regime that we have never seen before."
https://www.axios.com/2023/08/07/climate-commodities-food-supply
reporting on a study at https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jaa2.20Dutch cherry growers face a dramatic year with harvests halved due to cold, wet spring
Heavy rainfalls that have recently occurred are also causing worries about the crops of berries and potatoes
“2023 is one of the worst years in recent memory," stated Johan Sonneveld of the industry consulting firm, Fruitconsult, commenting on the state of the cherry harvest. Although there are minor regional variances, Sonneveld pointed out that "in Betuwe, where the majority of cherry growers are located, the harvest volumes are down by 50 to 60 percent." This situation has been confirmed by Erik Vernooij, a cherry grower from De Kersenhut in Cothen, located in the province of Utrecht. Owning 16 hectares of cherry trees, Vernooij said, "My father has been in this business for 45 years, and he has never experienced anything like this" ... the apple harvest would be around 30 percent less than usual. Apart from the unfavorable spring weather, apple growers have struggled with the apple blossom beetle. "This insect has the potential to ravage an entire orchard," warned Ron Mulders, chairman of the Dutch Fruit Growers Organization (NFO) ... the crop farming sector is also facing uncertain months. "The winter wheat should have been harvested by now, but incessant rain has made that impossible." Storm Polly, which hit the country early last month, already partially flattened the wheat crops.
https://nltimes.nl/2023/08/05/dutch-cherry-growers-face-dramatic-year-harvests-halved-due-cold-wet-spring‘A dire situation.’ What caused Georgia’s catastrophic peach crop failure?
Loss of up to 95% of a normal year’s yield
“It’s been a devastating year for a peach grower in the [US] state of Georgia. Really, no one was spared,” said Will Bentley, president of the Macon-based Georgia Agribusiness Council ... Georgia had another in a streak of increasingly warm winters, followed by punishing spring frosts in March. Together, these conditions amounted to a deadly combination of weather events [that] “killed off most of either the blooms or the early peaches that had already bloomed and then fertilized, because they can’t handle the frost” ... The dual weather events responsible for destroying the peach harvest — warming winters and spring frosts — are both part of wider climatological cycles ... “it’s clear in Georgia that the trend in winter temperatures is towards warmer temperatures over time,” Knox said ... Agriculture is Georgia’s largest industry, and the wide-ranging effects of rising global temperatures are felt directly and indirectly across the state’s crops, regions, and seasons. But many of Georgia’s farmers and agribusiness advocates remain reluctant to acknowledge the responsibility of climate change for the dramatic changes.
https://www.ledger-enquirer.com/news/state/georgia/article276405991.htmlGlobal heating likely to hit world food supply before 1.5C, says UN expert
The world is likely to face major disruption to food supplies well before temperatures rise by the 1.5C target, the president of the UN’s desertification conference has warned ... the effects of drought were taking hold more rapidly than expected ... “some very bad things could happen, in terms of soil degradation, water scarcity and desertification, way before 1.5C” ... The problems of rising temperatures, heatwaves and more intense droughts and floods, were endangering food security in many regions, Donwahi said. “[Look at] the effects of droughts on food security, the effects of droughts on migration of population, the effect of droughts on inflation. We could have an acceleration of negative effects, other than temperature,” he said.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/aug/12/global-heating-likely-to-hit-world-food-supply-faster-than-expected-says-united-nations-desertification-expertUN Security Council: Food insecurity tops agenda
In July, Russia [killed] a crucial grain deal brokered by Turkey and the United Nations ... The collapse of the grain deal poses a serious threat to the food security of many lower-income countries already grappling with hunger and economic crises ... The war in Ukraine and the collapse of the Black Sea grain deal are just two among several factors contributing to a long-standing global food crisis. Alarmed by rising prices and growing demand, other countries producing large amounts of staple food items have restricted their exports. Extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, drought and floods have also adversely affected harvests ... disrupting agriculture and fishing sectors, and exacerbating food cost inflation. Last year's devastating floods in Pakistan, for instance, washed away nearly half the country's crops, while record-breaking heatwaves in southern Europe severely damaged summer crops and dairy products ... about 700 million people faced hunger in 2022 [with] Africa, the Caribbean, and Western Asia experiencing the most alarming increases in hunger levels.
https://www.dw.com/en/un-security-council-food-insecurity-tops-agenda/a-66433948Pensions funds under fire over reliance on non-scientific climate change advice
Report criticises pension funds and their advisers for underestimating likely impacts from future climate change
The report, Loading the DICE Against Pension Funds, argues that many pension funds develop investment models based on advice from a handful of investment managers and consultants that drastically underestimate the negative impact global warming could have on businesses in their portfolios in the near future ... Financial institutions, central banks, regulators and governments underestimate the dangers and economic damages of climate change and the resulting impact on asset prices, because they rely on research from “a small, self-referential group of climate economists that ignores the impact of climate tipping points”, according to the report ... “Global warming is not a minor cost-benefit problem that will mainly affect future generations, as the economic literature asserts, but a potentially existential threat to the economy, on a timescale that could occur within the lifespan of pensioners alive today,” according to the report’s author, economist professor Steve Keen, a distinguished research fellow at University College of London. Keen was formerly the head of the School of Economics, History and Politics at Kingston University, London ... providers had “a fiduciary duty to correct the erroneous predictions they have given their members”. It said they should obtain second opinions on the likely scope of economic damages resulting from climate change directly from scientists rather than relying solely on economists ... Previous research has also highlighted similar dangers, including a 2021 paper from Boston University’s School of Law, which concluded that under-pricing of corporate climate risk was leading to misallocation of investment capital.
https://impact-investor.com/pensions-funds-under-fire-over-reliance-on-non-scientific-climate-change-advice/
reporting on a study at https://carbontracker.org/reports/loading-the-dice-against-pensions/From Egypt to Iran, heatwave compounds Middle East electricity problems, climate change burdens
A heat wave continued to hit the Middle East on Wednesday, leading to electricity issues in Egypt and Jordan, closures in Iran and continued challenges in drought-hit Iraq.
• Egypt: Cairo reached 100F (38C) ... daily power cuts [which] could last into September
• Jordan: Amman was 91F (33C) ... “demand for electricity has soared”
• Iraq: Baghdad high 120F (49C) ... Basra [was] hottest city in the world with 122F (50C) ... chronic electricity shortages
• Kuwait: Kuwait City 122F (50C) ... malls remain busy due to heavy air conditioning
• Iran: Tehran’s was 102F (39C) ... authorities announce national emergency holidays on Tuesday and Wednesday ... also electricity shortages
• Lebanon: electricity shortages, [also] fuel shortages that make powering generators difficult ... humidity can make the weather unbearable
https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/08/egypt-iran-heatwave-compounds-middle-east-electricity-problems-climate-change#ixzz89J3eA5VTTime-travelling pathogens and their risk to ecological communities
The unprecedented rates of melting of glaciers and permafrost are now giving many types of ice-dormant microorganisms concrete opportunities to re-emerge, bringing to the fore questions about their potential. Yet, the scientific debate on the topic has been dominated by speculation, due to the challenges in collecting appropriate data or designing experiments to elaborate and test hypotheses. For the first time, we provide an extensive exploration of the ecological risk posed to modern ecological communities by these ‘time-travelling’ pathogens [and] found that invading pathogens could often survive, evolve and, in a few cases, become exceptionally persistent and dominant in the invaded community [which suggests] that unpredictable threats so far confined to science fiction and conjecture could be powerful drivers of ecological change.
https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011268
see also https://www.smh.com.au/national/our-permafrost-is-thawing-and-with-it-bacteria-and-viruses-20230801-p5dsu0.htmlEven frozen Antarctica is being walloped by climate extremes, scientists find
The southernmost continent is not isolated from the extreme weather associated with human-caused climate change, according to a new paper in Frontiers in Environmental Science that tries to make a coherent picture of a place that has been a climate change oddball. Its western end and especially its peninsula have seen dramatic ice sheet melt that threatens massive sea level rise ... Antarctic sea ice veered from record high to shocking levels far lower than ever seen. What follows if the trend continues, a likely result if humans fail to curb emissions, will be a cascade of consequences from disappearing coastlines to increased global warming hastened by dramatic losses of a major source of sunlight-reflecting ice. That’s something scientists have long been watching and are even more concerned about now. “A changing Antarctica is bad news for our planet,” said Martin Siegert, a glaciologist, professor of geosciences at University of Exeter and lead author on the paper ... “I’m not an alarmist, but what we see is alarming,” said Waleed Abdalati, an environmental researcher at the University of Colorado not involved with the study. He said that extreme events are one thing, but when superimposed on a trend — a trend of global warming that heightens those extreme events — that’s a cause for concern. “We can handle events,” he added, “but we can’t handle a steady increase of those destructive events.” That’s something climate scientists say we’ll need to prepare for, by continuing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while introducing adaptation measures for sea level rise and extreme weather around the world. “We’ve been saying this for 30 years,” said Ted Scambos, an ice scientist at the University of Colorado whose paper from 2000 was cited in Siegert and Hogg’s article. “I’m not surprised, I’m disappointed. I wish we were taking action faster.”
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2023-08-08/even-frozen-antarctica-is-being-walloped-by-climate-extremes-scientists-find
reporting on a study at https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2023.1229283/fullFears over Antarctic sea ice as yearly ozone layer hole forms ‘very early’
Experts say larger-than-normal hole could cause further warming of Southern Ocean and heighten damaging effects of 2022 Tonga volcano eruption Satellite data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts suggests the hole has already begun to form over Antarctica. Dr Martin Jucker, a lecturer at the Climate Change Research Centre at the University of New South Wales, said the hole usually began forming at the end of September, peaking in October before closing in November or December. “Starting in August is certainly very early,” he said. “We don’t usually expect that” ... modelling by Jucker and collaborators, including Chris Lucas of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, has suggested it will be larger than usual in 2023, due to long-lasting atmospheric changes after the undersea Tonga volcano explosion in January last year ... Jucker said he was concerned about the impact of the hole on Antarctic sea ice, which has hit record lows over the past two years. “The more UV radiation that reaches Antarctica [and] the Southern Ocean means that there is more energy available to melt ice,” Jucker said. “Now that we have so little sea ice, instead of [reflective] white ice there is very dark blue ocean ... Other impacts from the Tonga volcano eruption – such as higher-than-usual surface temperatures over large regions of the world – are expected to continue until the end of the decade.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/aug/08/fears-over-antarctic-sea-ice-as-yearly-ozone-layer-hole-forms-very-earlyNo quick fix to reverse Antarctic sea ice loss as warming intensifies
Sea ice in the Antarctic region has fallen to a record low this year as a result of rising global temperatures and there is no quick fix to reverse the damage done, scientists said on Tuesday in a new study of the impact of climate change on the continent ... "There's no quick fix to replacing this ice," said Anna Hogg, a professor at the University of Leeds and one of the study's co-authors, referring to melting icebergs and shelves. "It will certainly take a long time, even if it's possible," she told a briefing with journalists ... from phenomena such as the rapid decline in sea ice, it is "scientifically reasonable" to assume that extreme events are going to intensify as global temperatures rise, said Martin Siegert, a glaciologist at the University of Exeter and another co-author [and] described the temperature increase as "absolutely astonishing."
https://www.reuters.com/world/no-quick-fix-reverse-antarctic-sea-ice-loss-warming-intensifies-scientists-2023-08-08‘This is going to get worse before it gets better’: Panama Canal pileup due to drought reaches 154 vessels
The number of vessels waiting to cross the Panama Canal has reached 154, and slots for carriers to book passage are being reduced in an effort to manage congestion caused by ongoing drought conditions that have roiled the major shipping gateway since the spring. The current wait time to cross the canal is now around 21 days. The Panama Canal is a critical trade link for U.S. shippers heading to Gulf and East Coast ports ... “This is going to get worse before it gets better,” he said. A canal lock uses 50 million gallons of water when a single vessel traverses the canal.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/09/panama-canal-shipping-pileup-due-to-drought-reaches-154-vessels.htmlWith a fast burst of sea level rise, New Orleans’s outer defenses are drowning
Louisiana armed itself against the seas in the years after Hurricane Katrina [but] since 2010, the U.S. Gulf Coast has seen a sudden burst of rapid sea level rise, with rates that scientists didn’t expect to see until late this century. At its center lie the wetlands that make up the first line of defense for New Orleans, buffering the levees and barriers behind them ... For many of the brackish and saltwater marshes near the Gulf of Mexico, there’s been a clear uptick in land losses since around 2015 ... A group of scientists at Tulane University have also been investigating the situation. They found that across more than 200 wetland monitoring stations, seas are almost always rising faster than wetlands are able to grow — meaning that most wetlands are in a state of “drowning.” The wetlands losses are especially worrying in regions crucial to protecting New Orleans. This includes the middle part of the Barataria Basin and the lower Breton Sound Basin, on either side of the Mississippi River. The wetlands of middle Barataria are shrinking faster than 75 percent of all other Louisiana wetland regions, according to Couvillion — with the pace quickening in recent years. In the lower Breton Sound region, losses are happening even faster ... it is occurring in regions with and without major subsidence, implying a dominant role for the ocean. The faster seas rise, the less effective the state’s widely praised plans to protect its coast will be. “Over the period of 10 years, the state has gone from potentially being in a net gain situation to potentially being in [a] very significant net loss situation,” said Alex Kolker, a coastal geologist with the Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/interactive/2023/new-orleans-sea-level-hurricane-wetlands/Unprecedented damage from storms is upending the insurance industry
Waves of severe thunderstorms in the U.S. during the first half of this year led to $34 billion in insured losses, an unprecedented level of financial damage in such a short time, according to Swiss Re Group, as climate change contributes to the frequency and severity of violent meteorological events ... The figures for the first half of the year are in line with a report last month from another reinsurer, Munich Re, which said the series of thunderstorms that raked Texas in June was the most expensive single event in the U.S. for the year so far. The overall loss from those storms alone is estimated at approximately $8.4 billion. “Devastating storms, which now seem to be the norm rather than the exception, are expected to continue to grow in intensity and severity,” wrote Marcus Winter, Munich Reinsurance America’s North America chief executive ... The pullback by insurers is happening despite years of skyrocketing premiums for property owners in hard hit states. State Farm and Allstate have pulled back from California’s home insurance market, saying that increasing wildfire risk and soaring construction costs mean they’ll no longer write new policies in the nation’s most populous state. Last month Travelers said catastrophe losses doubled in its most recent quarter. The company, considered a bellwether for the insurance industry due to its size, said it lost money ... AAA insists that it’s not leaving Florida, but that last year’s devastating hurricane season had led to an unprecedented rise in reinsurance rates, making it more costly to operate there. Florida has struggled to maintain stability in the state insurance market since 1992 when Hurricane Andrew flattened Homestead, wiped out some insurance carriers and left many remaining insurers anxious about writing or renewing policies in Florida. Risks for carriers have also been growing as climate change increases the strength of hurricanes and the intensity of rainstorms.
https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2023-08-09/storms-damage-insuranceRemoving carbon from Earth's atmosphere may not 'fix' climate change
In the study, Korean researchers simulated how removing large quantities of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide from the air [which is not currently possible] might affect the progress of local climate changes related to global warming ... results suggest that the local climate in these areas would not return to normal for more than 200 years after the carbon dioxide concentrations drop. The Mediterranean region, for example, plagued by ever more severe heatwaves, droughts and wildfires, would continue to suffer and could become even drier, the study found ... Current concentrations of carbon dioxide are even higher than those of the Pliocene Climatic Optimum, a warm period in Earth's history some 4.5 million years ago when sea levels were up to 82 feet (25 meters) higher than they are today, according to NOAA. Despite the warnings of climatologists and political pledges at international conferences, the world still lags behind the greenhouse gas emission reduction targets needed to curb the progress of global warming. The study was published in the journal Science Advances.
https://www.space.com/carbon-removal-does-not-reverse-climate-change-effects
reporting on a study at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adg1801Harmful PFOS levels in Hague [Netherlands] neighborhood far above EU norm
The Delfland Water Board measured between 98.5 and 13 nanograms of PFOS per liter of ditch water. According to the European standard, ditch water may contain no more than 0.65 nanograms of PFOS per liter ... In July, the board measured 85 nanograms of PFOS per liter of ditch water there. At the last measurement, it was no less than 260 nanograms. “Of course, we are shocked; it is just too much. We can only guess at the cause,” said a spokesperson of the water board ... PFOS is a type of PFAS, which stands for per- and poly-fluoroalkyl substances - substances that don’t or hardly degrade. The chemicals are used, among other things, for non-stick coatings in pans, water-repellent clothing, fire-fighting foam, and cosmetics. They are associated with cancer, elevated cholesterol, and [endocrine disruptor] reproductive problems. In addition to PFOS, the waterboard also found other PFAS during the measurements in the ditches.
https://nltimes.nl/2023/08/10/harmful-pfos-levels-hague-neighborhood-far-eu-normRhine runs drier
The [Rhine river] is the commercial artery for 80% of the German economy's inland shipping of goods, including crude oil and natural gas. But following extended periods of low water in 2018 and 2022, Rhine levels are again too low in parts of the river for cargo vessels to sail fully loaded. At Kaub, the critical chokepoint for Rhine barges, water levels fell to their lowest this year earlier this week. Last year, 182 million metric tonnes of goods were transported via Germany's waterways, down 6.4% from 2021 and the lowest since German reunification [and] the Federal Waterways and Shipping Agency expects the downward trend to continue. Kaub levels below a metre mean that traditional barges must reduce their cargoes by more than half.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/german-industry-changes-tack-river-rhine-runs-drier-2023-07-26/Increasing levels of humidity are here to make heat waves even worse
This summer's heat is only a preview of what's in store for our future.
Climate change has supercharged this summer’s exceptionally brutal heat all around the world—heat waves are generally getting more frequent, more intense, and longer. But they are also getting more humid in some regions, which helps extend high temperatures through daytime peaks and into the night ... a warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor [which] is why we’re already seeing supersize downpours ... Water vapor is actually a greenhouse gas, like carbon dioxide or methane, responsible for about half of the planet-warming effect. More warming evaporates more water, which causes more warming—a climatic feedback loop. Sea surface temperatures have been steadily climbing globally, as the oceans absorb something like 90 percent of the excess heat that humans are adding to the atmosphere. But since March, global sea surface temperatures have been skyrocketing above the norm. The North Atlantic, in particular, remains super hot, loading Europe’s air with extra humidity. The waters around Florida are also logging truly astonishing sea surface temperatures. “You have incredibly warm Gulf water that warms the atmosphere, which can then absorb more moisture. So it's kind of a feedback loop,” says Kent State University biometeorologist Scott Sheridan ... when it’s humid, the atmosphere stubbornly holds onto that heat. “I don’t think we’re ready at all for that,” says Tarik Benmarhnia, an environmental epidemiologist at the UC San Diego ... As the world continues to rapidly warm, humidity will grow worse.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/07/increasing-levels-of-humidity-are-here-to-make-heat-waves-even-worse/Forests Are Losing Their Ability to Hold Carbon
U.S. forests could worsen global warming instead of easing it because they are being destroyed by natural disasters and are losing their ability to absorb planet-warming gases as they get older, a new Agriculture Department report says. The report predicts that the ability of forests to absorb carbon will start plummeting after 2025 and that forests could emit up to 100 million metric tons of carbon a year as their emissions from decaying trees exceed their carbon absorption. Forests could become a “substantial carbon source” by 2070, the USDA report says.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/forests-are-losing-their-ability-to-hold-carbon/
reporting on a study at https://www.fs.usda.gov/research/treesearch/66413Study: Increased ‘marine heat waves’ in Pacific Ocean threaten seabirds
From 2014 to 2019, five major die-offs of 250,000 or more seabirds occurred during the Pacific heat wave and subsequent El Niño, according to the study. In Alaska, an estimated 1.5 million seabirds died during the time, which University of Washington professor and study co-author Julia Parrish said is believed to be the largest seabird mortality event ever recorded ... The consequences of these warming events ripple throughout marine ecosystems. Fewer nutrients are available in ocean waters leading to a lack of forage and ultimately starvation for seabirds. The warmer water can also result in toxic algal blooms as well as disease outbreaks ... a notable finding in the study is the delayed impacts that these heat waves have on seabird populations. A marine heat wave resulted in an initial die-off of birds within the first six months followed by another die-off in 10 to 16 months, Parrish said. Overall, it takes about three years after a marine heat wave before seabird carcass counts on beaches return to their long-term normal levels. But with the warming oceans, more marine heat waves are occurring within those three-year cycles. “That means the ecosystem won’t have time to recover” ... the study clearly demonstrates how seabirds are an indicator of the health of the ecosystem overall. “People want to call it a canary in a coal mine, but it’s really a seabird on the beach” ... the scale of the die-offs detailed in the study could be brought into consideration for discussions on clean energy projects such as offshore wind energy, which have been controversial for impacts on seabirds. “If offshore wind as planned is going to kill somewhere on the order of 10,000 birds a year and these marine heat waves are killing somewhere on the order of a million birds a year, it may be that it’s a fair tradeoff,” Phillips said.
https://www.mercurynews.com/2023/07/25/study-marine-heat-waves-in-pacific-threaten-seabirds/
reporting on a study at https://www.int-res.com/articles/meps_oa/m14330_advview.pdfAntarctic sea ice levels dive in 'five-sigma event', as experts flag worsening consequences for planet
Usually, the ice has been able to recover in winter, when Antarctica is reliably dark and cold. But this year is different. For the first time, the sea ice extent has been unable to substantially recover this winter ... vast regions of the Antarctic coastline were ice free for the first time in the observational record. "To say unprecedented isn't strong enough," Dr Doddridge said. "For those of you who are interested in statistics, this is a five-sigma event. So it's five standard deviations beyond the mean. Which means that if nothing had changed, we'd expect to see a winter like this about once every 7.5 million years. It's gobsmacking."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-24/antarctic-sea-ice-levels-nosedive-five-sigma-event/102635204‘Era of global boiling has arrived,’ says UN chief as July set to be hottest month on record
The era of global warming has ended and “the era of global boiling has arrived”, the UN secretary general, António Guterres, has said after scientists confirmed July was on track to be the world’s hottest month on record. “Climate change is here. It is terrifying. And it is just the beginning,” Guterres said ... Guterres’s comments came after scientists confirmed on Thursday that the past three weeks have been the hottest since records began and July is on track to be the hottest month ever recorded. Global temperatures this month have shattered records, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the EU’s Copernicus Earth observation programme. “All this is entirely consistent with predictions and repeated warnings. The only surprise is the speed of the change. Climate change is here, it is terrifying, and it is just the beginning.” Other climate scientists confirmed the findings. Karsten Haustein at Leipzig University found the world was 1.5C (2.7F) hotter in July 2023 than in the average July before industrialisation.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2023/jul/27/scientists-july-world-hottest-month-record-climate-temperaturesMeltwater from Antarctic Glaciers Is Slowing Deep-Ocean Currents
Antarctic ice drives crucial deep-ocean currents that help regulate Earth’s climate. But the system is slowing down.
When the sea freezes around Antarctica’s fringes in winter, the ice expels salt into the water below. Trillions of metric tons of this briny, supercooled, heavy water [then] spread north through the Southern Ocean, driving abyssal circulation—the lower limb of the global ocean overturning circulation [and] the engine room of a current system that conveys heat, dissolved gases, and nutrients around the world. [But] the flows have become fresher, lighter, and smaller in volume since the 1990s and the abyssal circulation has slowed by almost a third. This meltwater from glaciers makes the ocean surface less salty, and when it freezes, the waters below are less dense than normal, falling into the deep more slowly. “Given that we expect the ice to continue melting, the most likely outcome is a continuation in the slowdown,” Gunn said.
https://eos.org/articles/meltwater-from-antarctic-glaciers-is-slowing-deep-ocean-currents
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01667-8Atlantic Ocean Current Could Collapse as Early as 2025
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a large system of ocean currents that circulates water in the Atlantic, flowing warm water north and cold water south. The AMOC is crucial in keeping the world's oceans balanced. The circulation brings warmth to colder areas, and circulates nutrients that are integral to ocean life. Research has already suggested that the currents are slowing due to changes in the world's climate. However whether it will completely halt has remained uncertain. New research published in Nature Communications, from University of Copenhagen scientists, found that there is a possibility the system could completely collapse at the middle of our century ... By using advanced statistical tools, the researchers found signs that the AMOC may not be far from a transition that would see it shut down. They predicted this could happen from 2025, and no later than 2095. If these findings are correct, it is hugely concerning. The collapse of the AMOC would trigger multiple climate tipping points [including] a rapid sea level rise.
https://www.newsweek.com/atlantic-ocean-current-collapse-2025-1815127
see also https://www.wired.com/story/amoc-collapse-atlantic-ocean/
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-wChange in cooling degree days [as] global mean temperature increasing from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C
Limiting global mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C is increasingly out of reach. Here we show the impact on global cooling demand in moving from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C of global warming. African countries have the highest increase in cooling requirements. Switzerland, the United Kingdom and Norway (traditionally unprepared for heat) will suffer the largest relative cooling demand surges. Immediate and unprecedented adaptation interventions are required worldwide to be prepared for a hotter world ... regions surrounding the Equator, particularly the Sub-Saharan region, will experience the largest increase in cooling demand [and] the Global North will experience dramatic relative increases in the number of days that require cooling [since these] are traditionally unprepared for high temperatures and will require large-scale adaptation to heat resilience.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01155-zDrought cycles erode tropics’ ability to absorb CO₂, study finds
In a recent study published in Nature, scientists investigated the correlation between water availability in the tropics and the carbon cycle over time. They found that tropical carbon sinks became increasingly vulnerable to water scarcity over the period from 1960 to 2018, with the most significant impacts observed during the three decades between 1989 and 2018. These findings suggest that decreased water availability is inhibiting carbon uptake, and indicates that the tropics are less resilient to climate change than previously thought ... The study builds upon a previous paper that found that global terrestrial ecosystems were less able to absorb carbon during severe droughts. The new study in Nature, which draws on historical records of global atmospheric CO2, along with terrestrial water storage and precipitation, is showing that this effect has become [larger] over time.
https://news.mongabay.com/2023/07/drought-cycles-erode-tropics-ability-to-absorb-co₂-study-finds/
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06056-xLong-lost Greenland ice core suggests potential for disastrous sea level rise
A recently discovered ice core taken from beneath Greenland’s ice sheet decades ago has revealed that a large part of the country was ice-free around 400,000 years ago, when temperatures were similar to those the world is approaching now, according to a new report [that] overturns previous assumptions that most of Greenland’s ice sheet has been frozen for millions of years, the authors said. Instead, moderate, natural warming led to large-scale melting and sea level rise [from the Greenland ice alone] of more than 1.4 meters (4.6 feet), according to the report published Thursday in the journal Science ... Bierman and a team of international scientists spent years analyzing frozen sediment from an ice core collected in 1966 at Camp Century, a US army base in northwest Greenland ... At the time, there wasn’t the technology to understand the sediment very well and so it was lost in a freezer for decades, Bierman said. Then, in 2017, it was rediscovered in Denmark ... they were surprised to see twigs, mosses, leaves and seeds. “We have a fossilized frozen ecosystem here [indicating] the ice sheet had gone away because you can’t grow plants under a mile of ice ... It’s really the first bulletproof evidence that much of the Greenland ice sheet vanished when it got warm,” Bierman said. “Greenland’s past, preserved in 12 feet of frozen soil, suggests a warm, wet, and largely ice-free future for planet Earth.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/20/world/greenland-ice-sheet-melt-sea-level-rise-climate/index.html
see also https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2023-07-21/greenland-ice-core-secret-us-army-base-reveals-dramatic-melting/102609654
reporting on a study at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.ade4248‘We are damned fools’: scientist who sounded climate alarm in 80s warns of worse to come
The world is shifting towards a superheated climate not seen in the past 1m years, prior to human existence, because “we are damned fools” for not acting upon warnings over the climate crisis, according to James Hansen, the US scientist who alerted the world to the greenhouse effect in the 1980s. Hansen, whose testimony to the US Senate in 1988 is cited as the first high-profile revelation of global heating, warned in a statement with two other scientists that the world was moving towards a “new climate frontier” with temperatures higher than at any point over the past million years, bringing impacts such as stronger storms, heatwaves and droughts ... He said the record heatwaves that have roiled the US, Europe, China and elsewhere in recent weeks have heightened “a sense of disappointment” ... “It’s not just the magnitude of change, it’s the rate of change that’s an issue,” said Ellen Thomas, a Yale University scientist who studies climate over geologic timescales. “Almost all my colleagues have said that, in hindsight, we have underestimated the consequences. Things are moving faster than we thought, which is not good.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/19/climate-crisis-james-hansen-scientist-warningThe role of endocrine disruptors in female infertility
Endocrine disruptors are chemicals with the ability to interfere with normal hormonal action [and] have a role that negatively affects female fertility. Some examples: BPA can disrupt at many levels [resulting] in adverse effects on the reproduction system via irreversible impairment of the HPG axis ... Phthalates are used to make plastic more malleable, more transparent, and more durable, [but] they [can] interfere with biosynthesis, metabolism, and hormonal activity [causing] growing concern about the role that phthalates play in fertility ... polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is the most common use of phthalates [and is] present in numerous products present in our daily life [but] in plastics, phthalates are not covalently bound to the structure, which means that they leach from the products and end up contaminating food, water, soil, air, and thousands of consumer goods. Phthalates have been found in liver, lungs, urine, amniotic fluid, ovarian follicular fluid as well in adipose tissue. The presence of phthalates in ovaries and amniotic fluid means that exposure [is] life-long, starting from germ cell development. Phthalate levels in women have been associated to decreased rates of pregnancy, increased rates of miscarriages, pregnancy complications as well a diminished ovarian reserve ... The effects of phthalates in the male reproductive system [have been] much more documented than the effects on the female reproductive system [but it] is clear that phthalates play a severe role in both genders ... Dioxins [have] toxic effects on animals, the environment, and human health [globally] ... these compounds induce various toxicities through their tight relation with the AhR [which] performs a starring role in the regulation of ovarian follicular growth and steroidogenesis [and can] disrupt multiple endocrine pathways [so] exposure to these compounds is dangerous even in very low doses ... a study in China found strong evidence that BPA is disruptive to women’s hormone homeostasis, compromising reproductive health. The industry, when confronted with all the objections created against the use of BPA, started to use other compounds to replace it [but] they raise similar concerns to BPA. [In one study] mice orally exposed to different concentrations of the analogs: BPA, BPE, or BPS [exhibited] irregular estrous cyclicity [and] mating problems beginning at 6 months of age. By the time of 9 months, the pregnancy rate was diminished, and some deaths at birth were reported [which suggests] the danger of the analogs and BPA itself, on fertility problems ... DEHP is the most ubiquitous phthalate in the environment. There are already many studies about its disrupting activity in the female reproductive system ... These data raise concerns about the impacts of chemicals on female reproductive health.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11033-023-08583-2It’s Toxic Slime Time on Florida’s Lake Okeechobee
For thousands of years, Lake Okeechobee pumped life into Florida’s swampy interior. But a vast re-engineering over the past century has transformed Okeechobee into something life-threatening as much as life-giving. Toxic algal blooms now regularly infest much of its 730-square-mile surface during the summer, producing fumes and waterborne poisons potent enough to kill pets that splash in the contaminated waters, or send their owners to the doctor from inhaling the toxins ... in recent summers the problem has become more dire. Climate change is making storms and rainfall more intense and less predictable, and last fall Hurricane Ian stirred up so much phosphorus that this summer is expected to be particularly bad. Things get further complicated when lake levels climb so high that contaminated water must be released into canals — toward coastal cities ... Adding to the worry: More than half the lake is already suffering algal blooms. And the algae season has months to go ... “We’re looking at a bullet in the chamber here,” said Eve Samples, executive director of the conservation group Friends of the Everglades ... Ms. Robinson, the jogger, said she knows how to fix a lake that has 'gone to hell.' “Stop the polluting,” she said. “That’s it. That’s the solution.” It’s not likely to happen anytime soon.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/07/09/climate/florida-lake-okeechobee-algae.htmlClimate Collapse Could Happen Fast
As temperature and weather records fall, Earth may be nearing so-called tipping points
Ever since some of the earliest projections of climate change were made back in the 1970s, they have been remarkably accurate at predicting the rate at which global temperatures would rise. Its impacts, however, are accelerating—sometimes far faster than expected [and] a growing number of climate scientists now believe we may be careening toward so-called tipping points, where incremental steps along the same trajectory could push Earth’s systems into abrupt or irreversible change—leading to transformations that cannot be stopped even if emissions were suddenly halted. “The Earth may have left a ‘safe’ climate state beyond 1°C global warming,” Armstrong McKay and his co-authors concluded in Science last fall. If these thresholds are passed, some of global warming’s effects—like the thaw of permafrost or the loss of the world’s coral reefs—are likely to happen more quickly than expected ... When melt from Greenland’s glaciers enters the ocean, for example, it alters an important system of currents called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The AMOC is like a conveyor belt, drawing warm water from the tropics north. The water’s salinity increases as it evaporates, which, among other factors, makes it sink and return south along the ocean floor. As more glacial fresh water enters the system, that conveyor belt will weaken. Right now it’s the feeblest it’s been in more than 1,000 years. A shutdown of that ocean current could dramatically alter phenomena as varied as global weather patterns and crop yields. Messing with complex systems is chilling precisely because there are so many levers: If the temperature of the sea surface changes, precipitation over the Amazon might too, contributing to its deforestation, which in turn has been linked to snowfall on the Tibetan plateau. We may not even realize when we start passing points of no return—or if we already have. “It’s kind of like stepping into a minefield,” Armstrong McKay said. “We don’t want to find out where these things are by triggering them” ... There’s a sense of awe—in the original meaning of inspiring terror or dread—at witnessing such sweeping changes play out across the landscape. “Many scientists knew these things would happen, but we’re taken aback by the severity of the major changes we’re seeing.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2023/07/climate-change-tipping-points/674778/Tipping points can be triggered unexpectedly by dangerous rates of change
It is now widely understood that tipping points can occur when thresholds are crossed, such as the degree of global warming. The new study instead highlights the dangers associated with rate-induced tipping, which is triggered not by a critical level of change but instead by how quickly that level is reached. Once triggered, tipping points may lead to abrupt changes in natural and human systems including the reorganisation of large ocean circulation currents, extinction of ecosystem populations and blackouts on power grid networks. Until now, critical thresholds have been assumed to be a point of no return, but the new study – published in the journal Earth System Dynamics – concludes that dangerous rates could trigger permanent shifts in human and natural systems before these critical levels are reached. The research team say the rate of change in external forcing is often more important to control, than the peak change, if we are to avoid triggering tipping points.
https://news.exeter.ac.uk/faculty-of-environment-science-and-economy/tipping-points-can-be-triggered-unexpectedly-by-dangerous-rates-of-change/
reporting on a study at https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/14/669/2023/esd-14-669-2023.htmlMultiple ecosystems in hot water after marine heatwave surges across the Pacific
Rising ocean temperatures are sweeping the seas, breaking records and creating problematic conditions for marine life. Unlike heatwaves on land, periods of abrupt ocean warming can surge for months or years. Around the world these 'marine heatwaves' have led to mass species mortality and displacement events, economic declines and habitat loss. New research reveals that even areas of the ocean protected from fishing are still vulnerable to these extreme events fueled by climate change.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/07/230713142059.htm
reporting on a study at https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.16862Financial models on climate risk ‘implausible’, say actuaries
Many of the results emerging from the models were “implausible,” with a serious “disconnect” between climate scientists, economists, the people building the models and the financial institutions using them, a report by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries and the University of Exeter finds ... Some models were likely to have “limited use as they do not adequately communicate the level of risk we are likely to face” ... significant factors were sometimes missing from models ... As a result of such overly “benign” models, large financial institutions had reported that they would suffer minimal economic impacts if the world warmed by significantly more than 1.5C higher than pre-industrial levels ... Some economists had even predicted “relatively low economic damage” from high levels of warming, said Tim Lenton, a co-author of the report who holds the chair in climate change at Exeter. It was “concerning” to see those models being used by financial institutions to estimate their risks, Lenton said.
https://www.ft.com/content/a5027391-41a4-4e21-a72d-f8189d6a7b71Intensifying Rains Pose Hidden Flood Risks Across the U.S.
As climate change intensifies severe rainstorms, the infrastructure protecting millions of Americans from flooding faces growing risk of failure ... the NOAA atlases tell you the probabilities there of various precipitation events — that is, a certain number of inches falling over a given span of time. But the atlas estimates are based on rain measurements collected over the past several decades, or, in some places, since the 19th century, “in a climate that just doesn’t exist anymore,” said Jeremy R. Porter, First Street’s head of climate implications research. By contrast, First Street’s peer-reviewed methods for estimating precipitation use only rainfall records from this century ... The result, according to First Street, is that NOAA is substantially underestimating the risk of severe rain in some of the nation’s largest cities [also] the Ohio River Basin, northwestern California and parts of the Mountain West. In other areas, including those east of the Sierra Nevada and Cascade Range, First Street finds that NOAA is overestimating the likelihood of intense rain.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/26/climate/rainstorms-hidden-flood-risk.htmlWhy a sudden surge of broken heat records is scaring scientists
New precedents have been set in recent weeks and months ... historically warm oceans, with North Atlantic temperatures already nearing their typical annual peak; unparalleled low sea ice levels around Antarctica, where global warming impacts had, until now, been slower to appear; and the planet experiencing its warmest June ever charted, according to new data. And then, on Monday, came Earth’s hottest day in at least 125,000 years. Tuesday was hotter. “We have never seen anything like this before,” said Carlo Buontempo, director of Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service. He said any number of charts and graphs on Earth’s climate are showing, quite literally, that “we are in uncharted territory” ... Records are falling around the globe many months ahead of El Niño’s peak impact, which typically hits in December and sends global temperatures soaring for months to follow ... It’s not just that records are being broken — but the massive margins with which conditions are surpassing previous extremes, scientists note ... “It just raises everybody’s awareness that this is not getting better; it’s getting worse,” said Jennifer Francis, senior scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center in Massachusetts.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/07/06/earth-record-heat-climate-extremes/UN says climate change ‘out of control’ after likely hottest week on record
The UN secretary general has said that “climate change is out of control” ... average world temperatures in the seven days to Wednesday were the hottest week on record. “Chances are that the month of July will be the warmest ever, and with it the hottest month ever … ‘ever’ meaning since the Eemian [interglacial period], which is indeed some 120,000 years ago,” Dr Karsten Haustein, a research fellow in atmospheric radiation at Leipzig University, said.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/07/un-climate-change-hottest-week-worldWorld registers hottest day ever recorded on July 3
"This is not a milestone we should be celebrating," said climate scientist Friederike Otto of the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment at Britain's Imperial College London. "It's a death sentence for people and ecosystems." Scientists said climate change, combined with an emerging El Nino pattern, were to blame.
https://www.reuters.com/world/world-registers-hottest-day-ever-recorded-july-3-2023-07-04/Climate Change Bringing More Than Heat — Malaria And Dengue On The Rise
[Last week brought] the highest temperature in recorded history, a threshold that has already been surpassed twice since then. The average global temperature ... has consistently been rising by more than 0.2 degrees each decade. This has not only impacted human activity, but also the geographical distribution of [mosquitoes and ticks] that may carry and transmit a range of infectious diseases, including malaria and dengue ... As climate and environmental factors promote the increased distribution of mosquitoes and ticks, other infectious diseases, such Powassan virus, Zika virus and Chikungunya virus may also rise in prevalence.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/matthewbinnicker/2023/07/10/climate-change-bringing-more-than-heat---malaria-and-dengue-on-the-rise/Groundwater springs formed during glacial retreat are a large source of methane in the high Arctic
As glaciers melt, they are no longer capping trapped prehistoric methane
Permafrost and glaciers in the high Arctic form an impermeable ‘cryospheric cap’ that traps a large reservoir of subsurface methane [but] glaciers are retreating and leaving behind exposed forefields that enable rapid methane escape ... methane-rich groundwater springs have formed in recently revealed forefields of 78 land-terminating glaciers across central Svalbard, bringing deep-seated methane gas to the surface ... Our findings reveal that climate-driven glacial retreat facilitates widespread release of methane, a positive feedback loop that is probably prevalent across other regions of the rapidly warming Arctic.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-023-01210-6Researchers: We've Underestimated The Risk of Simultaneous Crop Failures Worldwide
The risks of harvest failures in multiple global breadbaskets have been underestimated, according to a study Tuesday that researchers said should be a "wake up call" about the threat climate change poses to our food systems ... In the new research published in Nature Communications, researchers in the United States and Germany looked at the likelihood that several major food producing regions could simultaneously suffer low yields. These events can lead to price spikes, food insecurity and even civil unrest, said lead author Kai Kornhuber, a researcher at Columbia University and the German Council on Foreign Relations. By "increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases, we are entering this uncharted water where we are struggling to really have an accurate idea of what type of extremes we're going to face ... these types of concurring events are really largely underestimated." [The study also] found that [computer models] underestimate the magnitude of the extremes this produces on the ground.
https://www.sciencealert.com/researchers-weve-underestimated-the-risk-of-simultaneous-crop-failures-worldwide
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-38906-7June Extremes Suggest Parts of the Climate System Are Reaching Tipping Points
Earth’s critical reflective polar ice caps are at their lowest extent on record in the satellite era, with the sea ice around Antarctica at a record-low extent by far ... the month ended with the Greenland Ice Sheet experiencing one of the largest June melt events ever recorded, and with scientists reporting that June 2023 was the hottest June ever measured ... the oceans set records for warmth on the surface and down to more than 6,000 feet deep ... record-breaking heat on nearly every continent during the month [including] readings higher than 95 degrees Fahrenheit close to the Arctic Circle ... the warm El Niño phase [will] “greatly increase the likelihood of breaking temperature records and triggering more extreme heat in many parts of the world and in the ocean,” said World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Petteri Taalas ... “I expect a step change to higher global mean temperatures starting this year,” said atmospheric scientist Kevin Trenberth, a distinguished scholar at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. “And next year will be the warmest on record, either 1.4 or 1.5C above pre-industrial.”
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/04072023/june-extremes-climate-tipping-points/India: Extreme heat worsening domestic violence
As the climate gets hotter in South Asia, more women living in low-income households are expected to experience domestic violence. A new study shows the problem will be most extreme in India. A study published last week found that increasing temperatures in South Asia are connected to a rise in domestic violence against women, with India expected to experience the largest increase. The study, published in the journal JAMA Psychiatry from the American Medical Association, examined the "association of ambient temperature" with the "prevalence of intimate partner violence" in India, Nepal and Pakistan. The researchers tracked over 194,800 girls and women aged between 15 and 49 to study the prevalence of intimate partner violence, which includes physical, sexual, and emotional abuse. Overall, the study found that a 1 degree Celsius increase in annual mean temperature was associated with a 4.5% increase in intimate partner violence.
https://www.dw.com/en/india-extreme-heat-worsening-domestic-violence/a-66111995As the climate crisis intensifies, insurers will likely reshape where people live — leaving desperate homeowners in the lurch
More frequent and destructive wildfires, hurricanes, and flooding are pushing up the price of property insurance in high-risk states ... some companies are pulling out of these markets altogether. Surging policy costs and coverage deserts in already pricey markets mean insurers could become gatekeepers determining where people find it possible to live [as] insurance is becoming more expensive nationwide ... State Farm announced it would stop accepting new applications from home and business owners in California, citing the growing risks of natural disasters, a historic increase in construction costs, and a challenging reinsurance market. Allstate announced in June that it had already made a similar move. Meanwhile, in Florida, some two dozen private companies have declared insolvency, stopped issuing policies, or withdrawn from the state since February 2022.
https://www.businessinsider.com/how-insurers-will-shape-where-people-live-climate-change-2023-7France badly hit by climate change and ill-prepared for its effects, warns report
The record heat and exceptional drought seen last year have had "serious impacts in France," and are more than the current prevention and crisis management systems can cope with, the French High Council for the Climate (HCC) said [with] temperatures at 2.9 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 average, according to the report ... Agriculture has been badly hit, with crop yields down 10-30 percent ... Tensions over drinking water have affected more than 2,000 municipalities, while 8,000 others have requested recognition as "natural disasters" due to the drought ... France was ill-prepared to fight forest fires and has been forced to call in reinforcements from abroad. And these effects are just set to intensify as climate change progresses.
https://www.france24.com/en/france/20230628-france-badly-hit-by-climate-change-and-ill-prepared-for-its-effects-warns-reportOil and gas firms making 'almost no progress' towards Paris goals, CDP says
The CDP's Oil and Gas Benchmark report, published together with the World Benchmarking Alliance, said its latest assessment had shown the oil and gas sector "has made almost no progress towards the Paris Agreement goals since 2021". None of the 100 oil and gas companies it had assessed is set to cut its overall emissions "at a rate sufficient to align with a 1.5°C pathway over the next five years", it said. CDP has emerged as the world's biggest repository of environmental data submitted on a voluntary basis by companies.
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/oil-gas-firms-making-almost-no-progress-towards-paris-goals-cdp-2023-06-29/Himalayan glaciers are melting faster than ever, and scientists say it's "going to affect us" all
The study says the melting of the glaciers will directly impact billions of people in Asia — causing floods, landslides, avalanches and food shortages as farmland is inundated. Indirectly, the melting of such a vast reserve of fresh water could impact countries as far away as the United States, even the whole of humanity, according to the report by the Nepal-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD). The academic paper warns the ice and snow reserves in the Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH) region are melting at an "unprecedented" rate and that the environmental changes to the sensitive region are "largely irreversible." The HKH region spans roughly 2,175 miles, from Afghanistan to Myanmar, and is home to the highest mountains in the world, including Mount Everest. It contains the largest volume of ice on Earth outside the two polar regions and is the source of water for 12 rivers that flow through 16 Asian nations. Those rivers provide fresh water to some 240 million people living in the HKH region, and about 1.65 billion people further downstream, the report says. For all of those people, the melting of the glaciers would be a disaster.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/himalaya-glaciers-melting-faster-study-warns-will-affect-us-all/Global ocean roiled by marine heatwaves, with more on the way
As scientists around the world sound the alarm about record sea surface temperatures, a new experimental NOAA forecast system predicts that half of the global ocean may experience marine heatwave conditions by the end of summer. The surface temperatures of about 40% of the global ocean are already high enough to meet the criteria for a marine heatwave ... The new forecast by the Physical Sciences Laboratory (PSL) projects that it will increase to 50% by September, and it could stay that way through the end of the year. “In our 32-year record, we have never seen such widespread marine heatwave conditions.” Observations show marine heatwaves are occurring across vast regions of the planet, including: the tropical North Atlantic, the Northeast Atlantic along the Iberian coast as far northward as Ireland and the UK, the equatorial Pacific, the Northeast Pacific, the Northwest Pacific in the Sea of Japan, the Southwest Pacific just southeast of New Zealand and the Western Indian Ocean southeast of Madagascar. “Normally we might expect only about 10% of the world’s oceans to be ‘hot enough’ to be considered a marine heatwave, so it’s remarkable to reach 40% or 50%, even with long-term warming.”
https://research.noaa.gov/2023/06/28/global-ocean-roiled-by-marine-heatwaves-with-more-on-the-way/The Trillion Gallon Question
Extreme weather is threatening California’s dams. What happens if they fail?
“We still haven’t severely tested California’s primary flood-control structures,” says Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles ... Dale Cox, a former project manager at the United States Geological Survey who has worked extensively with Swain, told me that California’s dams are unprepared for extreme weather because state water authorities have a false sense of how bad flooding can get ... Some of this miscalculation arises from our failure to account for climate change, a problem that will only get worse as the atmosphere heats up and the amount of water vapor it can carry increases ... In the mid-2000s, Cox assembled a group at the U.S.G.S. to study what would happen if the atmospheric rivers from two notable California flood years, 1969 and 1986, occurred back to back. They named the resulting scenario the Arkstorm: flooding throughout the state, water depths of up to 20 feet in the Central Valley and economic losses of $725 billion. When the report on this research was done, the authors presented it to emergency managers, municipal authorities and dam owners, including D.W.R. The response was demoralizing. “They said, ‘That’s too big, that’s ridiculous,’” says Lucy Jones, the chief scientist for the project. The authors of the Arkstorm report had a response ready, however. Their imaginary storm was modeled on the Great Flood of 1862, which also made a lake of the Central Valley and destroyed, by one account, a quarter of all the buildings in the state ... Did presenting state officials with these numbers make a difference? I asked. No, he said. So many of the officials he talked to about Arkstorm were like the mayor in “Jaws” — unwilling to see a problem they couldn’t fix. Most officials wanted to do nothing ... according to Cox, “D.W.R. ghosted the Arkstorm project about three-quarters of the way through.” He never got a straight answer about why ... My own reporting would eventually reveal another possible answer: The numbers were scary enough to shut down any discussion ... it’s not clear that any single entity is capable of seeing the whole picture. To remedy that, shortly before his retirement, Cox began assembling a new group of collaborators, including Albano and Swain, for a project he called Arkstorm 2.0. Specifically, the group wanted to examine how a warmer climate would strengthen atmospheric rivers, and they wanted to finally plug that weather data into a hydrological model to see what it would do to the state’s flood-control infrastructure. The first half of that work is done: In August, Swain and Xingying Huang of the National Center for Atmospheric Research published a paper that predicted a storm, called ArkFuture, that would be a supercharged version of 1862: 30 days of unrelenting rain across the whole state [which] in the next 40 years, he and Huang determined, the odds of such a storm sequence occurring were as high as 50 percent ... the Army Corps had already done a preliminary analysis [and] eventually the document arrived in my inbox: a series of charts detailing what would happen to six of the largest reservoirs in California during the 30-day storm sequence predicted by Swain and Huang. Some of the information was merely alarming [but] other parts of the document were terrifying ... Friant Dam, which is situated in the hills above Fresno, population 544,500, would take on an incredible six times its total volume in the course of the month. New Melones would have a peak inflow that was more than twice what it could release, and its spillway couldn’t be used until the water was near the crest of the dam. In the probable inundation zone for New Melones were most of the 218,800 people of Modesto. If these projections were correct, it would create an unprecedented amount of destruction.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/22/magazine/california-dams.html‘Off the charts’: Earth’s vital signs are going haywire
Meteorologists and climate scientists all around the world are in awe by the simultaneous literal “off the charts” records being broken. The steady trend of rising temperatures over the last few decades has placed Earth’s baseline climate so high that achieving these extremes – which used to be rare if not unheard of – is now expected when conditions are ripe. And right now they are, with El Niño’s added heat and several other concurrent, varying natural climate patterns ... With El Niño now in place, we are getting a glimpse of just how far we can force the climate system, with never before observed heights achieved. Many more are on the way for 2023-2024 as El Niño gets stronger ... the North Atlantic Ocean is way beyond record hot right now. The Atlantic has warmed ~2 degrees Fahrenheit since 1900, due to warming from emissions of greenhouse gases due to the burning of fossil fuels and also, more recently, the decrease in air pollution, allowing more sunlight through ... [There's] an extreme heatwave off the coast of Europe contributing to the heat as well. And it is not confined to the Atlantic. In the Pacific, El Niño is warming the Tropical waters while heat lingers from a warm blob over the North Central Pacific ocean. When you add it all up, Global Ocean temperatures are way beyond record hot, making the heat basically statistically impossible before human-caused warming existed ... Antarctic sea ice. Right now sea ice should be growing fast near the South Pole. Instead growth is labored and departures from normal are the highest ever observed ... Canada has experienced its worst wildfire season on record ... As the climate warms, areas dry, and fires spread more vigorously. This year, there has been a persistent heat dome for months across parts of Canada which has led to less rain and warmer weather. That has led to a record-setting amount of greenhouse emissions from Canadian wildfires. So many emissions it is almost equal to that of Canada’s normal greenhouse emissions in a whole year ... The bottom line is, with Earth’s overheated climate and an intensifying El Niño, we can expect to see the Earth’s climate system astonish us over and over again into next year.
https://www.wfla.com/weather/climate-classroom/off-the-charts-earths-vital-signs-are-going-haywire/Ecological ‘doom loops’ edging closer
Extreme weather events such as wildfires and droughts will accelerate change in stressed systems leading to quicker tipping points of ecological decline
[A] “perfect storm” of continuous stress from factors such as unsustainable land use, agricultural expansion and climate change, when coupled with disruptive episodes like floods and fires, will act in concert to rapidly imperil natural systems ... even if ecosystems are managed more sustainably by keeping the main stress levels like deforestation constant, new stresses like global warming and extreme weather events could still bring forward a collapse. “Our findings show the potential for each [forcing] to reinforce the other. Any increasing pressure on ecosystems will be exceedingly detrimental and could have dangerous consequences” ... “Over a fifth of ecosystems worldwide are in danger of collapsing,” said Professor Simon Willcock from Rothamsted and Bangor University, who co-led the study published in Nature Sustainability. “However, ongoing stresses and extreme events interact to accelerate rapid changes that may well be out of our control. Once these reach a tipping point, it’s too late.”
https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/news/ecological-doom-loops-edging-closer
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01157-xSlowdown of Antarctic Bottom Water export driven by climatic wind and sea-ice changes
Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) is pivotal for oceanic heat and carbon sequestrations on multidecadal to millennial timescales. The Weddell Sea contributes nearly a half of global AABW through Weddell Sea Deep Water and denser underlying Weddell Sea Bottom Water that form on the continental shelves via sea-ice production. Here we report an observed 30% reduction of Weddell Sea Bottom Water volume since 1992, with the largest decrease in the densest classes. This is probably driven by a multidecadal reduction in dense-water production over southern continental shelf associated with a >40% decline in the sea-ice formation rate ... The observations are consistent with ocean–atmosphere–sea ice model projections published earlier this year showing that Antarctic overturning circulation could slow 40% by 2050 if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01695-4Pace of Climate Change Sends Economists Back to Drawing Board
They underestimated the impact of global warming, and their preferred policy solution floundered in the United States.
Economists have been examining the impact of climate change for almost as long as it’s been known to science. In the 1970s, the Yale economist William Nordhaus began constructing a model meant to gauge the effect of warming on economic growth. The work, first published in 1992, gave rise to a field of scholarship assessing the cost to society of each ton of emitted carbon offset by the benefits of cheap power — and thus how much it was worth paying to avert it ... “There was an idealization and simplification of the problem that started in the economics literature,” Dr. Kopp said. “And things that start out in the economics literature have half-lives in the applied policy world that are longer than the time period during which they’re the frontier of the field” ... At the same time, Dr. Nordhaus’s model was drawing criticism for underestimating the havoc that climate change would wreak. Like other models, it has been revised several times, but it still relies on broad assumptions and places less value on harm to future generations than it places on harm to those today. It also doesn’t fully incorporate the risk of less likely but substantially worse trajectories of warming. [Now] the field is learning that simply tinkering with prices won’t be enough as the climate nears catastrophic tipping points, like the evaporation of rivers, choking off whole regions and setting off a cascade of economic effects ... “People who know what’s going on are engineers and insurers,” said Madison Condon, an associate professor at Boston University School of Law who focuses on financial risk. “Rather than doing this completely ridiculous thing, which is not mathematically possible in any way, we could just read the science about what’s going to happen literally in the next decade.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/25/business/economy/economy-climate-change.htmlThe Emperor’s New Climate Scenarios
Limitations and assumptions of commonly used climate-change scenarios in financial services
A growing threat is the approach of ‘tipping points’ – thresholds which, once crossed, trigger irreversible changes, such as the loss of the Amazon rainforest or the West Antarctic ice sheet. Some tipping point thresholds have already been reached, while others are getting closer as global warming continues. Once tipped into a new state, many of these systems will cause further warming ... However, some economists have predicted that damages from global warming will be as low as 2% of global economic production for a 3˚C rise in global average surface temperature. Such low estimates of economic damages – combined with assumptions that human economic productivity will be an order of magnitude higher than today – contrast strongly with predictions made by scientists of significantly reduced human habitability from climate change. It is concerning to see these same economic models being used to underpin climate-change scenario analysis in financial services, leading to the publication of implausible results ... Actuaries have an important contribution to make here. The application of actuarial principles to climate-change scenario analysis demonstrates the significant weaknesses in current approaches. Actuaries also wield enormous influence in the global financial system. In addition to their role in the insurance markets, their work in pensions means they can impact capital allocation in long-term savings in a way few other professions can.
https://actuaries.org.uk/media/qeydewmk/the-emperor-s-new-climate-scenarios.pdfFour alarming charts that show just how extreme the climate is right now
Soaring temperatures. Unusually hot oceans. Record high levels of carbon pollution in the atmosphere and record low levels of Antarctic ice. We’re only halfway through 2023 and so many climate records are being broken, some scientists are sounding the alarm, fearing it could be a sign of a planet warming much more rapidly than expected. In a widely shared tweet, Brian McNoldy, senior research associate at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric and Earth Science, called rising ocean and air temperatures “totally bonkers.” He added, “people who look at this stuff routinely can’t believe their eyes. Something very weird is happening” ... Here are four charts showing just how record-breaking this year has already been, with the hottest months still to come.
• Global temperatures spike: The first eleven days of June saw the highest temperatures on record for this time of year by a substantial margin, according to an analysis released Thursday by the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service. It is also the first time global air temperatures during June exceeded preindustrial levels by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, the scientists found. Heat records are being broken across the world.
• Ocean heat heads off the charts: Oceans are heating up to record levels and show no sign of stopping. Rising ocean surface temperatures began alarming scientists in March when they started to climb and then skyrocketed to reach record levels.
• Antarctic sea ice at record lows: Antarctica’s sea ice is currently at record lows for this time of year, with some scientists concerned it is a further sign the climate crisis has arrived in this isolated region. In late February, Antarctic sea ice reached its lowest extent since records began in the 1970s, at 691,000 square miles. It’s “not just ‘barely a record low, it’s on a very steep downward trend.” As the Antarctic has moved into its winter, and the sea ice has started to grow again, levels are still tracking at record low levels for this time of year. The decline is “truly exceptional and alarming,” Scambos said. “2023 is just heading off into crazy territory.”
• Record carbon dioxide levels: The record of 424 parts per million continues “a steady climb further into territory not seen for millions of years,” the scientists noted in a statement. Carbon pollution levels, which fuel the climate crisis, are now more than 50% higher than they were before the Industrial Revolution began, NOAA has said.
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/17/world/four-climate-charts-extreme-weather-heat-oceans/index.htmlWorld breaks average temperature record for early June
Average global temperatures at the start of June were the warmest the European Union's climate monitoring unit has ever recorded ... "Global-mean surface air temperatures for the first days of June 2023 were the highest in the ERA5 data record for early June by a substantial margin", said Copernicus ... at the beginning of June, global temperatures exceeded pre-industrial levels by more than 1.5C (34.7 degrees Fahrenheit), which is the most ambitious cap for global warming in the 2015 Paris Agreement. According to the data, the daily global average temperature was at or above the 1.5C threshold between June 7-11, reaching a maximum of 1.69C above it on June 9.
https://phys.org/news/2023-06-world-average-temperature-early-june.htmlAntarctic tipping points: the irreversible changes to come if we fail to keep warming below 2C
The slow-down of the Southern Ocean circulation, a dramatic drop in the extent of sea ice and unprecedented heatwaves are all raising concerns that Antarctica may be approaching tipping points ... which, once crossed, would lead to irreversible changes – with global long-term, multi-generational repercussions and major consequences for people and the environment ... During the past 10,000 years of our present inter-glacial period, Earth’s greenhouse gas thermostat has been set at 300ppm of CO2, maintaining a pleasant average temperature of 14℃. A goldilocks climate ... Change is not always linear. It can be abrupt and irreversible on human timescales if a threshold or tipping point is crossed ... Unless we change our current emissions trajectory, this is what to expect. By 2070, the climate over Antarctica will warm by more than 3℃ above pre-industrial temperatures. The Southern Ocean will be 2℃ warmer. As a consequence, more than 45% of summer sea ice will be lost, causing the surface ocean and atmosphere over Antarctica to warm even faster as dark ocean replaces white sea ice, absorbing more solar radiation ... This accelerated warming of the Antarctic climate is a phenomenon known as polar amplification. This is already happening in the Arctic ... By 2070, heat in the ocean and atmosphere will have caused many ice shelves to break up into icebergs that will melt and release a quarter of their volume into the ocean as freshwater. By 2100, 50% of ice shelves will be gone. By 2150, all will have melted. Without ice shelves holding back the ice sheet, glaciers will discharge at an even faster rate under gravity into the ocean ...Future generations will be committed to unstoppable retreat of the Greenland and marine sections of the Antarctic ice sheets, causing as much as 24m of global sea-level rise.
https://theconversation.com/antarctic-tipping-points-the-irreversible-changes-to-come-if-we-fail-to-keep-warming-below-2-207410
see also https://hakaimagazine.com/news/the-atlantification-of-the-arctic-ocean-is-underway/Drought is on the verge of becoming the next pandemic
Freshwater shortages, once considered a local issue, are increasingly a global risk. In every annual risk report since 2012, the World Economic Forum has included water crisis as one of the top-five risks to the global economy. Half of the global population – almost 4 billion people – live in areas with severe water scarcity for at least one month of the year, while half a billion people face severe water scarcity all year round ... from the Yellow River in China to the Colorado River in the United States, many rivers no longer reach the sea. Often artificially straightened and dammed, water is sucked out and channelled off to supply farms, industries and households. Great lakes, from the Aral Sea in central Asia to Lake Urmia in Iran, have nearly disappeared. Groundwater aquifers, from the Ogallala and Central Valley in the US to India’s Upper Ganges and Pakistan’s Lower Indus, are being depleted faster than they can refill. The remaining freshwater is increasingly polluted with sewage and fertilisers, causing algal blooms that smother and choke ecosystems ... Mami Mizutori, the UN secretary general’s special representative for disaster risk reduction, said: “Drought is on the verge of becoming the next pandemic, and there is no vaccine to cure it” ... Not a single one of England’s rivers is classified as being in good ecological health [and] climate-change projections show that dry summers in England will increase by up to 50% ... Without significant action, the National Audit Office (NAO) forecasts that the total water demand will start to exceed supply in England no later than 2034.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2023/jun/15/drought-is-on-the-verge-of-becoming-the-next-pandemicSiberia swelters in record-breaking temperatures amid its ‘worst heat wave in history’
Dozens of heat records have fallen in Siberia, as temperatures climbed above 100 degrees Fahrenheit (37.7 Celsius). Despite only being early June, records are tumbling across parts of Siberia as extreme heat pushes into unusually high latitudes. Last Saturday, temperatures reached 37.9 degrees Celsius (100.2 Fahrenheit) in Jalturovosk, its hottest day in history, according to the climatologist Maximiliano Herrera, who tracks extreme temperatures across the globe. A slew of temperature records have fallen in Siberia since then. And it looks set to get even worse.
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/08/asia/heat-wave-siberia-climate-intl/index.htmlMicroplastics found in every sample of water taken during Ocean Race
Sailors testing the waters during the Ocean Race, which travels through some of the world’s most remote ocean environments, have found microplastics in every sample. Up to 1,884 microplastic particles were found per cubic metre of seawater in some locations, up to 18 times higher than in similar tests during the last Ocean Race, which ended in 2018. The highest concentrations of microplastics were found close to coasts and urban areas. The most abundant chemical in the plastics is polyethylene, which is used for single-use packaging, plastic bags and containers such as bottles..
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jun/05/microplastics-found-in-every-sample-of-water-taken-during-ocean-raceGlobal study of 71,000 animal species finds 48% are declining
A new study evaluating the conservation status of 71,000 animal species has shown a huge disparity between “winners” and “losers.” Globally, 48% of species are decreasing, 49% remain stable, and just 3% are rising. Most losses are concentrated in the tropics. Extinctions skyrocketed worldwide with the onset of the Industrial Revolution, especially since World War II, when resource extraction and consumption rates soared, and the planet saw exponential growth in human population to 8 billion by 2022. Habitat destruction, especially in the tropics, is the major driver. But a confluence of human activities, ranging from climate change, to wildlife trafficking, hunting, invasive species, pollution and other causes, are combining to drive animal declines. The research also revealed that one-third of non-endangered species are in decline. [But that approach went nowhere, reflecting] a larger trend in public policy, one that is prompting economists to ponder why the profession was so focused on a solution that ultimately went nowhere in Congress — and how economists could be more useful as the damage from extreme weather mounts. A central shift in thinking, many say, is that climate change has moved faster than foreseen, and in less predictable ways, raising the urgency of government intervention.
https://news.mongabay.com/2023/06/global-study-of-71000-animal-species-finds-48-are-declining/The Arctic Will Have Ice-Free Summers as Soon as the 2030s
The new study, published Tuesday in Nature Communications, says this will happen even in a low-emissions scenario. Higher emissions will result in ice-free Septembers by 2030 to 2040. “We basically are saying that it has become too late to save the Arctic summer sea ice,” said Dirk Notz, an oceanographer at the University of Hamburg in Germany who specializes in sea ice and is one of the authors of the study, as well as an IPCC report author. “There’s nothing really we can do about this complete loss anymore, because we’ve been waiting for too long” ... fluctuations in the jet stream will become more intense. A warmer Arctic will quicken permafrost melt, releasing more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, accelerating a dangerous feedback loop. The Greenland ice sheet would likely melt more quickly as well, meaning higher seas.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/the-arctic-will-have-ice-free-summers-as-soon-as-the-2030s-1.1929480
see also https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jun/06/too-late-now-to-save-arctic-summer-ice-climate-scientists-find
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-38511-8Broken Record: Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Levels Jump Again
Average May reading 3.0 parts per million higher than in 2022 Carbon dioxide levels measured at NOAA’s Mauna Loa Atmospheric Baseline Observatory peaked at 424 parts per million (ppm) in May, continuing a steady climb further into territory not seen for millions of years, scientists from NOAA and Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego announced today.
https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/broken-record-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide-levels-jump-againGlobal greenhouse gas emissions at all-time high, study finds
Greenhouse gas emissions have reached an all-time high, threatening to push the world into “unprecedented” levels of global heating, scientists have warned. The world is rapidly running out of “carbon budget”, the amount of carbon dioxide that can be poured into the atmosphere if we are to stay within the vital threshold of 1.5C above pre-industrial temperatures, according to a study published in the journal Earth System Science Data on Thursday.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jun/08/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-at-all-time-high-study-finds
reporting on a study at https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/2295/2023/Dry Weather to Slash Australia’s Next Wheat Crop by a Third
Dry conditions and low soil moisture in some growing regions mean that much of the 2023–24 crop has been sown dry and will require adequate and timely rain to allow plants to germinate, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences said. Apart from Australia, wild weather is affecting crops elsewhere, including in the Americas and North Africa. The harvest in top wheat consumer China has also been hit by torrential rains, potentially boosting the need for more imports. The expected onset of El Niño conditions from July will likely see winter crop output fall significantly, Abares said. Dry weather has already arrived, according to the Bureau of Meteorology, with the second-driest May on record nationwide and the driest in Western Australia since observations began.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-05/dry-weather-set-to-slash-australia-s-next-wheat-crop-by-a-thirdNations who pledged to fight climate change are sending money to strange places
Italy helped a retailer open chocolate and gelato stores across Asia. The United States offered a loan for a coastal hotel expansion in Haiti. Belgium backed the film “La Tierra Roja,” a love story set in the Argentine rainforest. And Japan is financing a new coal plant in Bangladesh and an airport expansion in Egypt ... all four countries counted their backing as so-called “climate finance.” Developed nations have pledged to funnel a combined total of $100 billion a year toward this goal, which they affirmed during climate talks in Paris in 2015 ... they broke no rules. That’s because the pledge came with no official guidelines for what activities count as climate finance. “This is the wild, wild west of finance,” said Mark Joven, Philippines Department of Finance undersecretary, who represents the country at U.N. climate talks. “Essentially, whatever they call climate finance is climate finance.” The system’s lack of transparency made it impossible to tell how much money is going to efforts that truly help reduce global warming and its impact. In some cases, even recipient governments say they don’t know what has become of climate-finance funds purportedly spent on their turf.
https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/nations-who-pledged-to-fight-climate-change-are-sending-money-to-strange-placesAnother climate tipping point to worry about: Plankton
Rising temperatures could turn one of the world's most common organisms into a major source of carbon emissions. A study, published Thursday in Functional Ecology, found that rising temperatures cause a sudden shift in these microbes’ eating habits, flipping them from carbon absorbers to carbon emitters ... it could be quite substantial, because they’re among the world’s most abundant organisms ... These tiny creatures are called “mixotrophs” because they use a mix of strategies to obtain food. Mixotrophs can, like plants, use photosynthesis to get the energy they need, or can, like predators, hunt bacteria. “When their dominant strategy is photosynthesis, they can have a net cooling effect by taking more greenhouse gas out of the atmosphere,” Wieczynski said. “If they do more eating of bacteria, they’re pumping more CO2 back into the atmosphere than they’re taking up.” Looking at temperatures from about 66 to 73 degrees F the abrupt shift from photosynthesis to carnivorousness happened about halfway up the range. “Just a couple degrees is all it takes,” Wieczynski said ... Researchers predict that once these microbes cross this tipping point, it would take a large amount of cooling, perhaps more than 1 degree C (1.8 degrees F), to turn them back into a carbon sink.
https://grist.org/science/plankton-climate-tipping-point-carbon-emissions/
reporting on a study at https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1365-2435.14350Antarctic alarm bells: observations reveal deep ocean currents are slowing earlier than predicted
Antarctic “bottom water” spreads north along the sea floor in deep ocean currents, before slowly rising, thousands of kilometres away. In this way, Antarctica drives a global network of ocean currents called the “overturning circulation” that redistributes heat, carbon and nutrients around the globe. The overturning is crucial to keeping Earth’s climate stable. It’s also the main way oxygen reaches the deep ocean. But there are signs this circulation is slowing down and it’s happening decades earlier than predicted ... melting of Antarctic ice is disrupting the formation of Antarctic bottom water. The meltwater makes Antarctic surface waters fresher, less dense, and therefore less likely to sink. This puts the brakes on the overturning circulation ... The overturning circulation carries carbon dioxide and heat to the deep ocean, where it is stored and hidden from the atmosphere. As the ocean storage capacity is reduced, more carbon dioxide and heat are left in the atmosphere. This feedback accelerates global warming ... The consequences of a slowdown will not be limited to Antarctica. The overturning circulation extends throughout the global ocean and influences the pace of climate change and sea level rise.
https://theconversation.com/antarctic-alarm-bells-observations-reveal-deep-ocean-currents-are-slowing-earlier-than-predicted-206289
see also https://www.theguardian.com/science/2023/may/25/slowing-ocean-current-caused-by-melting-antarctic-ice-could-have-drastic-climate-impact-study-says
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01667-8Record sea surface heat sparks fears of warming surge
Oceans absorb most of the heat caused by planet-warming gases, causing heatwaves that harm aquatic life, altering weather patterns and disrupting crucial planet-regulating systems. While sea surface temperatures normally recede relatively quickly from annual peaks, this year they stayed high ... Higher sea surface temperatures disrupt the mixing of nutrients and oxygen that are key to supporting life and potentially alter the ocean's crucial role in absorbing carbon from the atmosphere. Scientists expect that excess heat stored in the world's waters will eventually be returned to the Earth system and contribute to more global warming. "As we heat it up, the ocean becomes a bit like a time bomb," said Jeandel.
https://phys.org/news/2023-05-sea-surface-surge.htmlThe Ocean Is Looking More Menacing
Climate changes previously projected to happen 'by 2050' are happening now
In mid-March, measures of global sea-surface temperature plotted against recent years took a sharp turn away from the pack. By April 1, it had hit a record high [later] heating up to about three quarters of a degree above the 1982-2011 mean [which was] the largest global ocean temperature anomaly on record ... In a paper published in March, researchers suggested that under a high-emissions scenario, rapid melting of Antarctic ice could slow deepwater formation in the Southern Ocean by more than 40 percent by 2050, disrupting the “conveyor belt” that regulates and stabilizes not just the temperature of the oceans but much of the world’s weather systems. And after 2050? This key part of the circulation of the Southern Ocean “looks headed towards collapse this century,” study coordinator Matthew England told Yale Environment 360. “And once collapsed, it would most likely stay collapsed until Antarctic melting stopped. At current projections that could be centuries away.” Then, last week, some of the same researchers confirmed that the process was already unfolding — in fact, that the Southern Ocean overturning circulation had already slowed by as much as 30 percent since the 1990s ... “Changes have already happened in the ocean that were not projected to happen until a few decades from now” ... Just under 90 percent of the additional heat caused by global warming goes into the ocean [and] the planet accumulated nearly as much additional heat in the past 15 years as it had over the previous 45 ... what this means for oceans is that they are dealing with about 15 times as much impact and disruption from heat as those of us walking the earth and breathing air. And that, probably, we should be spending a lot more time looking there, in the world’s water, for the clearest signs of planetary distress.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/01/opinion/the-ocean-is-looking-more-menacing.html
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01667-8Farm animals, crops suffer from extreme weather affecting China
With parts of China experiencing record high temperatures and heavy rains, reports of farm animals and crops suffering from extreme weather patterns are dominating headlines in the country, raising concerns about food security in the world’s second largest economy. China experienced its worst heat wave and drought in decades during the summer of 2022, which caused widespread power shortages and disrupted food and industrial supply chains. This year, extreme heat has ravaged many parts of the country even earlier than last year ... reports of farm animals killed by extreme heat have dominated the news [and] extreme weather conditions have also affected the country’s largest wheat-growing region ... precipitation in the middle reaches of the mighty Yangtze River, which bisects the country, may be significantly reduced, according to an official estimate. That could lead to a drought and affect the region’s rice crops, he said. The Yangtze River basin provides more than two thirds of China’s rice, a major food staple at home and abroad.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/climate/farm-animals-crops-suffer-from-extreme-weather-affecting-china/1536139Potential for surprising heat and drought [crop collapse] events in wheat-producing regions of USA and China
Climate change presents a key risk to food systems globally, but many risk analyses derive estimates based on past climate-yield relationships, without accounting for the fact that we live in a fundamentally changed climate ... we are likely underestimating climate risks to our food system. In the case of wheat, parts of the USA and China show little historical relationship between yields and temperature, but extreme temperatures are now possible that exceed critical physiological thresholds in wheat plants ... In the US midwest, extreme temperatures that would have happened approximately 1-in-100-years in 1981 now have a return period of 1-in-6 years, while in China, the current return period is on the order of 1-in-16 years ... We find that there is a high potential for surprise in these regions if people base risk analyses solely on historical datasets.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-023-00361-yEarth past its safe limits for humans, scientists say
Activities have pushed 7 of 8 planetary boundaries into risk zones, research finds The earth is already past safe limits for humans as temperature rise, water system disruption and destruction of natural habitats have reached boundaries, a study by a group of the world’s foremost scientists has found. The research, published in the journal Nature on Wednesday, identified eight earth system boundaries that included climate, biodiversity, water, natural ecosystems, land use and the effect of fertilisers and aerosols ... limits after which humans will suffer significant harm. That includes through a lack of access to clean water, lower food security and displacement or loss of work because of temperature rise or flooding. Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and co-author of the report, said it was “very worrying” that most of the boundaries had already been breached. “It’s starting to hurt already . . . causing extreme events and abrupt impacts which go beyond heatwaves, droughts and floods caused by climate [change], but also lower food security, worsening water quality, overdraft of groundwater [and] worsened conditions for livelihoods, particularly among the vast vulnerable majorities in the world.”
https://www.ft.com/content/b59f9fea-500c-43c0-9b70-f0f7e866fd0e
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06083-8It’s near certain that the next 5 years will be the hottest yet
El Niño may push global temperatures past 1.5C, the World Meteorological Organization warned. The meteorological association cautioned that the world could see temperatures that are 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than preindustrial times, with a two-thirds chance that at least one of the next five years will breach that threshold ... El Niño’s arrival could fuel the spread of diseases carried by mosquitoes, bacteria, and toxic algae. Malaria and dengue have spiked during past El Niño years.
https://grist.org/science/el-nino-the-next-5-years-will-be-the-hottest-on-recordClimate change could cut off the Panama Canal
Every time the canal's locks are opened, millions of liters of fresh water flow into the sea. As a consequence, the water level in the canal drops. It is eventually replaced by more water flowing in. However now residents, conservationists and meteorologists are all observing a decrease in rainfall in Central America as a result of climate change. Which means less water for the canal ... The Panama Canal uses so much fresh water because ships have to go through a dozen locks that take them up or down 26 meters (85 feet). At the start of May, authorities put out an draft adjustment advisory for the Neo-Panamax locks — the term refers to size limits of some of the largest ships going through the canal — based on projected water levels. Starting May 24, the largest ships that transit the canal will be limited to drafts of up to 13.56 meters. A week later on May 30, that will be reduced again to 13.4 meters ... analysts do not expect the situation to improve for the rest of spring. In fact, things could get worse.
https://www.dw.com/en/will-climate-change-cut-off-the-panama-canal-and-global-supply-chains/a-65761965‘Spermageddon’: What you need to know about falling sperm counts and the male fertility crisis
A recent bombshell study found that sperm counts are plummeting faster than we thought [with] the potential to “threaten mankind’s survival” ... while sperm counts are “an imperfect proxy for fertility,” they’re closely linked to fertility chances ... Are chemicals to blame for falling sperm counts? Research shows [endocrine disruptor] chemicals such as phthalates, which have long been used to make plastics soft and flexible, and bisphenol A (BPA), which is used in hard plastic bottles, can disrupt humans’ hormonal and reproductive systems, especially in their earliest stages of development, inside the expectant mother’s womb. “If you mess with the hormones you need to have a functioning reproductive system, you’re not going to have a functioning reproductive system.”
https://www.euronews.com/next/2023/05/26/sperm-count-down-are-we-facing-a-male-fertility-crisis-and-what-can-we-do-about-itWhy the climate crisis is making our insects run for the hills
In the Alps and Apennines of southern Europe, nearly all the longhorn beetles are moving uphill, and way up at the peaks, the isolation of a brown butterfly with orange-tipped wings is pushing it towards extinction. This is a snapshot of a global trend. With temperatures rising and pressure on biodiversity growing, insects vital to our ecosystems are not only moving north and south, but up. Research shows many animals are making similar moves, but insects’ high levels of mobility and short generation times allow them to respond quickly to change, meaning the uphill momentum can be rapid ... While the broader altitude shift is disquieting in itself, studies have also shown that reproduction and development can be hit as insects move upwards [yet] well over half of the mountain-dwelling insects that have been studied are shifting upwards.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/28/why-the-climate-crisis-is-making-our-insects-run-for-the-hillsFor some US residents, it is now impossible to get home insurance - and all because of the climate crisis
State Farm, the largest insurance firm in the US by premium volume [said] it has stopped accepting new homeowner insurance applications in California. In a statement, the company said the decision was based on the heightened risk of natural disasters, such as wildfires, along with historic increases in construction costs. This news didn’t come out of nowhere. Last year, two large insurance firms in California ended their coverage for some multimillion-dollar houses in wildfire-prone areas. “We cannot charge an adequate price for the risk,” one insurance company CEO explained in an earnings call ... if you can’t get insurance, it’s almost impossible to get a mortgage. This makes it harder to sell your house and will make prices go down. The writing is on the wall, as insurance companies are well aware.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/may/31/for-some-us-residents-it-is-now-impossible-to-get-home-insurance-and-all-because-of-the-climate-crisisGlobal temperature rise could see billions live in places where human life doesn’t flourish, study says
If the current pace of global warming goes unchecked, it will push billions of people outside the “climate niche,” the temperatures where humans can flourish, and expose them to dangerously hot conditions ... the study found that by 2030 around two billion people will be outside the climate niche ... Outside this window, conditions tend to be too hot, too cold or too dry. In the worst case scenarios, if the Earth warms up by 3.6 or even 4.4 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, half of the world’s population would be outside the climate niche.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/climate/global-temperature-rise-could-see-billions-live-in-places-where-human-life-doesnt-flourish-study-says/1530384
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01132-6Spain Browned by Drought
Since the start of the hydrological year, on October 1, 2022, Spain received 28 percent less rain than expected by mid-May 2023, according to Spain’s meteorological agency. The drought dried up reservoirs, parched olive groves, and led to water restrictions across the country. The sparse rainfall further parched soils that were already unusually dry in 2022. According to a recent report by Copernicus Climate Change Services, soil moisture across all of Europe in 2022 was the second lowest in the past 50 years. Unseasonable heat exacerbated the prolonged drought.
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/151366/spain-browned-by-droughtGreenland and Antarctica losing ice six times faster than expected
Greenland and Antarctica are losing ice six times faster than in the 1990s – currently on track with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s worst-case climate warming scenario. The findings, published in two separate papers in Nature, show that Greenland and Antarctica lost 6.4 trillion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2017 ... The combined rate of ice loss has risen by a factor of six in just three decades, up from 81 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 475 billion tonnes per year in the 2010s. This means that polar ice sheets are now responsible for a third of all sea level rise. The new assessment comes from an international team of 89 polar scientists who have produced the most complete picture of ice loss to date.
https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Space_for_our_climate/Greenland_and_Antarctica_losing_ice_six_times_faster_than_expectedA Breakthrough Deal to Keep the Colorado River From Going Dry, for Now
Arizona, California and Nevada have agreed to take less water from the drought-strained Colorado River, a breakthrough agreement that, for now, keeps the river from falling so low that it would jeopardize water supplies for major Western cities like Phoenix and Los Angeles as well as for some of America’s most productive farmland ... reductions would amount to about 13 percent of the total water use in the lower Colorado Basin — among the most aggressive ever experienced in the region ... The Colorado River supplies drinking water to 40 million Americans in seven states as well as part of Mexico and irrigates 5.5 million acres of farmland. The electricity generated by dams on the river’s two main reservoirs, Lake Mead and Lake Powell, powers millions of homes and businesses. But drought, population growth and climate change have dropped the river’s flows by one-third in recent years compared with historical averages, threatening to provoke a water and power catastrophe across the West ... The agreement runs only through the end of 2026 [when] all seven states that rely on the river — which include Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming — could face a deeper reckoning, as its decline is likely to continue.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/22/climate/colorado-river-deal.htmlNowhere Should Expect a Cool Summer
Already, a heat wave in the Pacific Northwest is breaking records, with many places more than 20 degrees Fahrenheit above the seasonal norm ... years of record temperatures, sweeping wildfires, and 100-year hurricanes and floods have established a terrible, if loose, standard for what the next few months might bring. Not a sliver of the U.S. should expect a cool summer, according to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ... When the land lacks moisture and vegetation, “all the energy from the sun goes into heating the ground and then the near-surface temperature,” says Jon Gottschalck, who runs the operational-prediction branch of the CPC. These possibilities reflect a clear long-term trend: “more frequent heat waves, stronger heat waves,” says Ed Kearns, the chief data officer at First Street Foundation, a nonprofit that models climate risk. Those heat waves, in turn, can produce heavier rainfall and powerful floods—warm air holds more water vapor—and extend droughts. With heat also comes the risk of wildfires [and] fires are becoming more intense and destructive ... High sea-surface temperatures should drive more [hurricanes] because tropical storms pull energy from warm water. But the likely arrival of El Niño—which tears apart and weakens hurricanes as they form in the Atlantic—would decrease storm activity ... A weaker El Niño would likely not counteract exceptionally warm waters; a strong El Niño might be enough. Timing matters too: The full effects of El Niño usually come in fall or winter, meaning the earlier half of hurricane season could be worse ... the long-term trend is toward more frequent and more severe storms hitting the United States.
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2023/05/pacific-northwest-heat-wave-record-breaking-wildfires/674076/Three facilities leaking toxic 'forever chemicals' into [San Francisco Bay Area] groundwater
Metal plating companies Electro-Coatings of California and Teikuro Corporation, along with a Recology center in Vacaville, were sent legal notices by CEH after they were discovered to use PFAS, a group of potentially harmful chemicals, in their day-to-day operations. These chemicals were directly released into designated sources of drinking water below three facilities and now exceed the Environmental Protection Agency's proposed limits for PFAS by over a hundred times ... the [endocrine disruptors] affect functions of the thyroid, liver, reproductive system, and immune system, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. PFAS are known to move through soil and infect drinking water sources, and they do not break down in the environment, hence their nickname, “forever chemicals.”
https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/bay-area-facilities-leaking-toxic-chemicals-water-18105368.phpAs Ocean Oxygen Levels Dip, Fish Face an Uncertain Future
“Deoxygenation is a big problem,” Pauly summarizes. Our future ocean — warmer and oxygen-deprived — will not only hold fewer kinds of fish, but also smaller, stunted fish and, to add insult to injury, more greenhouse-gas producing bacteria, scientists say. The tropics will empty as fish move to more oxygenated waters, says Pauly, and those specialist fish already living at the poles will face extinction ... The oxygen drop is driven by a few factors. First, the laws of physics dictate that warmer water can hold less dissolved gas than cooler water. Deeper down, oxygen levels are largely governed by currents that mix surface waters downward, and this too is being affected by climate change. Melting ice adds fresh, less-dense water that resists downward mixing. Finally, bacteria living in the water, which feed off phytoplankton and other organic gunk as it falls to the seafloor, consume oxygen. This effect can be massive along coastlines, where fertilizer runoff feeds algae blooms, which in turn feed oxygen-gobbling bacteria. This creates ever more “dead zones” ... By 2080, a 2021 study reported, more than 70 percent of the global oceans will experience noticeable deoxygenation [but] climate models seem to have underestimated changes in oxygen levels, which have been dropping faster than expected ... “imagine all the dead zones of the world coalescing into one, and that is the end of the thing.” If we don’t get a handle on greenhouse gas emissions, he says, “we have to expect this to happen.”
https://e360.yale.edu/features/as-ocean-oxygen-levels-dip-fish-face-an-uncertain-futureThe Upper Atmosphere Is Cooling, Prompting New Climate Concerns
The same gases that are warming the bottom few miles of air are cooling the much greater expanses above that stretch to the edge of space. This paradox has long been predicted by climate modelers ... Increases in the amount of CO2 are now “manifest throughout the entire perceptible atmosphere,” says Martin Mlynczak, an atmospheric physicist at the NASA Langley Research Center ... the rate of increase in its concentration at the top of the atmosphere is as great as at the bottom. But [in] the thinner air aloft, most of the heat re-emitted by the CO2 does not bump into other molecules. It escapes to space. Combined with the greater trapping of heat at lower levels, the result is a rapid cooling of the surrounding atmosphere ... We are “fundamentally changing” that thermal structure, he says. “These results make me very worried” ... One big concern is the already fragile state of the ozone layer in the lower stratosphere. Ozone destruction operates in overdrive in polar stratospheric clouds [and] the cooler stratosphere has meant more occasions when such clouds can form ... the continued cooling means current expectations that the ozone layer should be fully healed by mid-century are almost certainly overly optimistic. This is made more concerning because, while the regions beneath previous Antarctic holes have been largely devoid of people, the regions beneath future Arctic ozone holes are potentially some of the more densely populated on the planet.
https://e360.yale.edu/features/climate-change-upper-atmosphere-cooling
reporting on a study at https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2300758120Numerous heat records smashed in Pacific Northwest and western Canada
Record warmth has toppled many long-term records across the U.S. West Coast and western Canada since last week [and] another bout of record heat could emerge as soon as later this week ... The particularly hot and dry conditions have caused numerous ongoing wildfires to flare up again across the region, along with some new starts, particularly focused on Alberta province in Canada. At this point, there is still no real sign of a large-scale cool-down for the region. Instead, the forecast goes from scorching to a little less hot and back to broiling again ... Dozens of daily records were also set across six of Canada’s provinces. Some locations have broken multiple daily records, sometimes by major margins.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/05/15/record-heat-oregon-washington-alberta-british-columbia/The far north is burning—and turning up the heat on the planet
The Arctic and surroundings are being transformed from carbon sink to carbon emitter
Arctic permafrost has locked away thousands of years’ worth of plant matter, preventing rot that would release clouds of planet-heating carbon dioxide and methane. But in a pair of recent papers, scientists have found that wildfires and human meddling are reducing northern ecosystems’ ability to sequester carbon, threatening to turn them into carbon sources. That will in turn accelerate climate change, which is already warming the Arctic four and a half times faster than the rest of the world, triggering the release of still more carbon ... over 100 wildfires are burning across Alberta Canada right now, forcing nearly 30,000 people from their homes—an “unprecedented situation” in the region. The annual area burned in Canada has doubled since the 1970s, says Mike Flannigan, a fire scientist at Thompson Rivers University. “A warmer world means more fire,” he says ... Climate change makes these blazes more likely. As northern landscapes dry out, they accumulate dead brush that’s ready to burn catastrophically ... Wildfires dramatically accelerate the development of thermokarst, a phenomenon in which permafrost thaws so quickly the ground craters. This provides the perfect wet conditions for microbes to eat organic matter and spew methane.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/05/the-far-north-is-burning-and-turning-up-the-heat-on-the-planet/Ocean temperatures now hotter than ever recorded. El Nino will drive them higher
Following closely after the official end of the triple-dip La Niña in early March, the world’s oceans began setting new heat records on a near-daily basis. By the end of March, the average sea surface temperature (between 60°N and 60°S) climbed to above 21°C for the first time since record-keeping began ... “This prolonged period of cold was tamping down global mean surface temperatures despite the rise of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,” [said] Michael McPhaden, NOAA's director of the Global Tropical Moored Buoy Array Program. “Now that it’s over, we are likely seeing the climate change signal coming through loud and clear.” If the ENSO forecast develops as expected — even if “only” a moderate El Niño develops — temperatures will climb even higher and set even more records.
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/weather/forecasts/ocean-temperatures-now-hotter-than-ever-recorded-el-nino-will-drive-them-higherOceans have been absorbing the world’s extra heat. But there’s a huge payback
The temperature at the ocean’s surface can jump around from one year to the next [but] 2km below the surface, that variability is almost nowhere to be seen. The rising heat down there has been on a relentless climb for decades, thanks to burning fossil fuels. “The ocean captures more than 90% of the imbalance of energy that we’re creating because of anthropogenic climate change” ... the atmosphere has held on to [only] 2% of the extra heat caused by global heating ... Prof Matthew England, an oceanographer and climate scientist at the University of New South Wales [says] “simple physics means the ocean “has this huge ability to absorb heat and then hold on to it” ... To heat [one cubic metre of] air by 1C, he says it takes about 2,000 joules. But to warm a cubic metre of ocean needs about 4,200,000 joules. “By absorbing all this heat, the ocean lulls people into a false sense of security that climate change is progressing slowly. But there is a huge payback ... sea level rise, coastal inundation, increased floods and drought cycles, bleached corals, intensification of cyclones, ecological impacts, melting of ice at higher latitudes in the coastal margins ... The oceans have stored the problem,” says England. “But it’s coming back to bite us.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/15/oceans-have-been-absorbing-the-worlds-extra-heat-but-theres-a-huge-paybackThe ocean is hotter than ever: what happens next?
The global ocean hit a new record temperature of 21.1 ºC in early April ... in line with the ocean warming anticipated from climate change. What is remarkable is its occurrence ahead of — rather than during — the El Niño climate event ... “We are probably looking at a string of record highs over the next year or so,” says Josh Willis, an oceanographer at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California ... Warm waters are also physically less capable of holding dissolved oxygen. “With ocean warming and deoxygenation, the available habitats for many species are decreasing,” says William Cheung, a marine biologist at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver, Canada ... The ocean temperature spike — recorded by NOAA and probably the highest in more than 100,000 years — coincides with other warming trends. For example, in the Southern Hemisphere, the sea ice extent hit a new all-time low in February 2023. The ocean absorbs about 90% of the extra heat in the climate system resulting from global warming. But because it takes more energy to heat water than air, the surface water temperature is rising more slowly than the surface air temperature is. “This wouldn’t have happened without climate change,” tweeted Jens Terhaar, an ocean biogeochemical modeller at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts, in response to the news of the new temperature record. “We are in a new climate state, extremes are the new normal.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-01573-1Are New Zealand's marine heatwaves a warning to the world?
Fish strandings are by no means unheard of – schools get chased in by predators, carried by storms, caught by the shallow sandbars of a bay. [But] “when that happens, though, you’re talking about individual fish – not thousands and thousands over a six month period” ... over the year to April 2023, New Zealand’s coastal waters sat stewing in marine heatwave conditions for 208 days. Some southern regions experienced marine heatwave conditions for more than 270 days. In the north island’s Bay of Plenty, the waters remained in heatwave for an entire year ... When marine heatwaves began hitting New Zealand again in 2022, dead [fairy penguins] began washing up on beaches in their hundreds ... the birds had died starving – as warm waters redistributed fish deeper and further, the penguins could not reach them ... “We thought we had more time. Climate change is a slow process. But faster than many people think.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2023/may/13/are-new-zealands-marine-heatwaves-a-warning-to-the-worldNetherlands has had 10 straight winters with below-average number of snow days
For the tenth winter in a row, the Netherlands had fewer snow days than usual ... number of average snow days almost halved compared to the 1951-1980 climate period ... “Green winters will become the norm,” the weather service said.
https://nltimes.nl/2023/05/11/netherlands-10-straight-winters-average-number-snow-daysWhy is the ice melting so fast?
One recent study found that Greenland is the warmest it's been in 1000 years. The resulting Arctic meltdown was responsible for 40% of the world's rising seas in 2019 ... Greenland's Petermann glacier is breaking up. Sitting on the edge of the ocean, its retreat will expose the massive ice sheets behind it to warming ocean water [and] sea level rise could double as a result ... In Antarctica, sea ice last year was at its lowest-ever recorded level [with] fears that the Thwaites glacier, which is the size of Florida and the biggest chunk of ice on the planet, is starting to crack up due to warming Antarctic waters ... most of the epic Greenland ice sheet is expected to melt ... Once that happens, sea levels could rise by as much as seven meters ... The world's mountain glaciers are melting much faster than they can accumulate ... these "water towers" provide fresh water to about a quarter of the world's population.
https://www.dw.com/en/why-is-the-ice-melting-so-fast/a-6557582814,000 Abandoned Oil and Gas Wells in the Gulf of Mexico Are Spewing Methane
A study published in Nature Energy found that there are 14,000 orphaned oil and gas wells in waters throughout the Gulf of Mexico’s waters and in Alabama, Louisiana, and Texas ... Other parts of the U.S. are dotted with abandoned and unplugged wells. A 2021 study found that Central Appalachian states, including Ohio, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Kentucky, are home to more than 500,000 abandoned oil and gas wells. That’s about 20% of the country’s idle wells, according to the study.
https://gizmodo.com/14-000-abandoned-oil-and-gas-wells-in-the-gulf-of-mexic-1850416009
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-023-01248-1‘Mind-boggling’ methane emissions from Turkmenistan revealed
Methane leaks alone from Turkmenistan’s two main fossil fuel fields caused more global heating in 2022 than the entire carbon emissions of the UK, satellite data has revealed. The western fossil fuel field in Turkmenistan, on the Caspian coast, leaked 2.6m tonnes of methane in 2022. The eastern field emitted 1.8m tonnes ... Most of the facilities leaking the methane were owned by Turkmenoil, the national oil company. Further undetected methane emissions will be coming from Turkmenistan’s offshore oil and gas installations in the Caspian Sea, but the ability of satellites to measure methane leaks over water is still being developed.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/09/mind-boggling-methane-emissions-from-turkmenistan-revealedWildfires in Alberta off to an exponentially fast start compared to recent years
Devastating wildfires in Alberta have burned more than 150 times more area than in the last five years combined at this same point in the year ... With temperatures expected to rise significantly by this weekend and into next week, a provincial state of emergency has been declared as weather conditions threaten to aid in fire growth and worsen the situation. “We are expecting record breaking temperatures across British Columbia and northern Alberta through early next week,” meteorologist Terri Lang from Environment Canada tells CNN. Last week’s abnormally warm and dry conditions have set the stage for more fires this weekend. “This is when we get very aggressive fire behavior,” explained Lang. “Throw in some wind and we are off to the races with regards to the wildfire season.” Temperatures will range between 10 and 15 degrees Celsius above average.
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/10/americas/canada-alberta-wildfires/index.htmlNew temperature records, food security threats likely as El Niño looms
El Niño and La Niña are natural phenomena which WMO describes as “major drivers of the Earth’s climate system”. After a three-year La Niña spell, which is associated with ocean cooling, the world faces an 80 per cent chance of an El Niño event developing between July and September ... according to the agency’s State of the Global Climate reports, the eight years from 2015 to 2022 were the warmest on record. This was even though for three of those years, “we had a cooling La Niña [that] acted as a temporary brake on global temperature increase”.
https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/05/1136312Records toppling as temperatures hit nearly 90 degrees in northern Canada
Parts of the northwestern United States are also seeing unprecedented temperatures
Records ha ve toppled far and wide across the Intermountain West, the interior Pacific Northwest and especially western Canada ... Maximiliano Herrera, a climate historian known for keeping track of temperature records, described the readings as “extraordinary.” In a tweet, he said the temperatures were “several degrees above anything seen that early.” In addition to the nearly 90-degree readings that were logged in northern Canada, a menagerie of records were set in the Lower 48 ... episodes of unseasonable heat are made more frequent, probable and intense due to human action. In a world unperturbed by humans, one might expect a roughly equal ratio of hot to cold records. Instead, heat records continue to vastly outpace cold records.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/05/04/canada-record-temperatures-climate-northwest/Recent, rapid ocean warming alarms scientists
Over the past 15 years, the Earth has accumulated almost as much heat as it did in the previous 45 years, with most of the extra energy going into the oceans ... not only did the overall temperature of the oceans hit a new record in April this year, in some regions the difference from the long term was enormous. In March, sea surface temperatures off the east coast of North America were as much as 13.8C higher than the 1981-2011 average ... One factor that could be influencing the level of heat going into the oceans is, interestingly, a reduction in pollution from shipping. In 2020, the International Maritime Organisation put in place a regulation to reduce the sulphur content of fuel burned by ships. This has had a rapid impact, reducing the amount of aerosol particles released into the atmosphere. But aerosols that dirty the air also help reflect heat back into space - removing them may have caused more heat to enter the waters [aerosol masking effect]... Another important factor that is worrying scientists is the El Niño Southern Oscillation. For the past three years this naturally occurring event has been in a cooler phase called La Niña, and has helped keep global temperatures in check. But researchers now believe that a strong El Niño is forming ... "The Australian Bureau's model does go strongly for a strong El Niño. And it has been trending that way and all the climate models have been trending that way to a stronger event," said Hugh McDowell from Australia's Bureau of Meteorology [and if so] "we will probably have additional global warming of 0.2-0.25C," said Dr Josef Ludescher, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research ... Several scientists contacted for this story were reluctant to go on the record about the implications. One spoke of being "extremely worried and completely stressed."
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-65339934
see also https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-04-19/nsw-warm-oceans-waters-earth-el-nino-beach/102236916Human-driven climate crisis fuelling Horn of Africa drought – study
The drought has affected about 50 million people in the Horn of Africa directly and another 100 million in the wider area. About 20 million people are at risk of acute food insecurity and potentially famine. The region has been suffering its worst drought in 40 years since October 2020 [with] five consecutive seasons of rainfall below normal levels. ... According to a study by the World Weather Attribution group of scientists published on Thursday, the ongoing drought would not have happened without human actions that have changed the climate ... and that by a conservative estimate climate change had made droughts such as the current one about 100 more times likely to occur.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/apr/27/human-driven-climate-crisis-fuelling-horn-of-africa-drought-studyPolar ice sheet melting records have toppled during the past decade
The seven worst years for polar ice sheets melting and losing ice have occurred during the past decade, according to new research [by] IMBIE, an international team of researchers who have combined 50 satellite surveys of Antarctica and Greenland taken between 1992 and 2020. Their findings are published today in the journal Earth System Science Data ... Data collected by the team is widely used by leading organisations, including by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ... Earth’s polar ice sheets lost 7,560 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2020 – equivalent to an ice cube that would be 20 kilometres in height. The polar ice sheets have together lost ice in every year of the satellite record, and the seven highest melting years have occurred in the past decade ... This third assessment from the IMBIE Team, funded by the ESA and NASA, involved a team of 68 polar scientists from 41 international organisations using measurements from 17 satellite missions
https://newsroom.northumbria.ac.uk/pressreleases/polar-ice-sheet-melting-records-have-toppled-during-the-past-decade-3247262
reporting on a study at https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1597/2023/New Detection Method Uncovers Massive Amount of Methane
Wildfires emitting methane is not new. But the amount of methane from the top 20 fires in 2020 was more than seven times the average from wildfires in the previous 19 years, according to the new UCR study. “Fires are getting bigger and more intense, and correspondingly, more emissions are coming from them,” said UCR environmental sciences professor and study co-author Francesca Hopkins. “The fires in 2020 emitted what would have been 14 percent of the state’s methane budget if it was being tracked” ... To measure emissions from 2020’s Sequoia Lightning Fire Complex in the Sierra Nevadas, the UCR research team used a remote sensing technique, which is both safer for scientists and likely more accurate since it captures an integrated plume from the fire that includes different burning phases. The technique, detailed in the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, allowed the [study] to safely measure an entire plume of the Sequoia Lightning Fire Complex gas and debris from 40 miles away ... This data matches measurements that came from European space agency satellite data, which took a more sweeping, global view of the burned areas, but are not yet capable of measuring methane in these conditions. If included in the California Air Resources Board methane budget, wildfires would be a bigger source than residential and commercial buildings, power generation, or transportation, but behind agriculture and industry.
https://scitechdaily.com/concerning-new-detection-method-uncovers-massive-amount-of-methane/
reporting on a study at https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/23/4521/2023/A once-stable glacier in Greenland is now rapidly disappearing
As climate change causes ocean temperatures to rise, one of Greenland's previously most stable glaciers is now retreating at an unprecedented rate, according to a new study. Led by researchers at The Ohio State University, a team found that between 2018 and 2021, Steenstrup Glacier in Greenland has retreated about 5 miles, thinned about 20%, doubled in the amount of ice it discharges into the ocean, and quadrupled in velocity. According to the study, such a rapid change is so extraordinary among Greenland ice formations that it now places Steenstrup in the top 10% of glaciers that contribute to the entire region's total ice discharge. The study was published today in Nature Communications ... "Up until 2016, there was nothing to suggest Steenstrup was in any way interesting," said Thomas Chudley, lead author of the study, "There were plenty of other glaciers in Greenland that had retreated dramatically since the 1990s and increased their contribution to sea level rise, but this really wasn't one of them" ... Steenstrup's unique behavior reveals that even long-term stable glaciers are susceptible to sudden and rapid retreat as warmer waters begin to intrude and influence new environments.
https://phys.org/news/2023-04-once-stable-glacier-greenland-rapidly.html
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-37764-7Heat stored in the Earth system 1960–2020: where does the energy go?
https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1675/2023/The world just failed its annual health checkup
The WMO’s annual State of the Climate Report analyzes a series of global climate indicators to understand how the planet is responding to climate change and the impact it is having on people and nature ... The past eight years were the hottest on record, despite three consecutive years of the La Niña climate phenomenon, which has a global cooling effect [and] with the predicted arrival later in the year of El Niño, which brings warmer global temperatures, scientists are deeply concerned that 2023 and 2024 will continue to smash climate records ... The WMO report follows an analysis published Thursday by the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, which focused on how climate change affected Europe last year. It highlighted “alarming” changes to the continent’s climate, including the hottest summer ever recorded, unprecedented marine heatwaves in the Mediterranean sea and widespread wildfires.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/21/world/wmo-report-state-of-climate-intl/index.htmlGlobal rice shortage is set to be the biggest in 20 years
From China to the U.S. to the European Union, rice production is falling and driving up prices for more than 3.5 billion people across the globe, particularly in Asia-Pacific – which consumes 90% of the world’s rice. The global rice market is set to log its largest shortfall in two decades in 2023 ... partly due to result of “an annual deterioration in the Mainland Chinese harvest caused by intense heat and drought as well as the impact of severe flooding in Pakistan,” Hart pointed out. Rice is a vulnerable crop, and has the highest probability of simultaneous crop loss during an El Nino event ... swaths of farmland in the world’s largest rice producer China were plagued by heavy summer monsoon rains and floods ... Similarly, Pakistan — which represents 7.6% of global rice trade — saw annual production plunge 31% year-on-year due to severe flooding last year [which was] “even worse than initially expected” ... rice production remains at the mercy of weather conditions ... “China is the largest rice and wheat producer in the world and is currently experiencing the highest level of drought in its rice growing regions in over two decades,” said Goughary. Major European rice-growing countries like France, Germany and the UK have also been afflicted with the highest level of drought in 20 years, she added.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/19/global-rice-shortage-is-set-to-be-the-largest-in-20-years-heres-why.htmlIndustrial Revolution Reversed 7,000-Year Cooling Trend in Siberia, Bringing Temperatures to Unprecedented Highs
Scientists analyzed tree rings in partially fossilized wood from Siberia’s Yamal Peninsula to track summer temperatures over the last 7,638 years [and found] a multi-millennial cooling trend that abruptly reversed at the onset of the Industrial Revolution. The long-term decline in Siberia’s summer temperatures is consistent with changes in the Earth’s orbit, while the recent warming trend reflects the sudden rise in heat-trapping carbon dioxide over the last 150 years. Today, Siberian summers are warming faster that at any time in the last 7,000 years, reaching unprecedented temperatures. The findings were published in the journal Nature Communications. The authors write that recent warming “may result in a new climate state in which heatwaves as well as the associated melting of permafrost bodies and occurrence of wildfires may become routine” ... So far this year, wildfires in Siberia have burned more than 8 million acres of forest, an area roughly the size of the Netherlands. More ferocious wildfires and permafrost loss threaten to unleash more greenhouse gases, spurring further warming.
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/climate-change-warming-siberia-russia
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-32629-xA winter drought grips southern Europe
Southern Europe is experiencing its second major drought in less than a year. This time it is an unusual one: a winter drought. For 32 consecutive days in January and February no rain fell anywhere in France—the longest dry spell in winter since monitoring began ... The Alps are Europe’s water-tower. They provide 25-50% of the water running through the continent’s main rivers, the Danube, the Po, the Rhine and the Rhône. With so little snow to melt in the coming months, river levels are likely to be unusually low, and with them water supplies for the people and plants along their banks ... [In Spain’s south] reservoirs are running low. Those southern regions also produce much of the country’s olive oil and a large share of Europe’s vegetables.
https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/04/13/a-winter-drought-grips-southern-europeUK bird numbers continue to crash
48% of species declined between 2015 and 2020 with woodland birds faring worst Dr Richard Gregory, the RSPB’s head of science, said: “This is a crucial indicator of the condition of our environment and health of our natural world. We cannot keep publishing report after report charting the decline of the UK’s wildlife without UK governments delivering on their commitments to take urgent action ... We are in a nature and climate emergency ... not something on the distant horizon, but on our doorsteps. The UK is among the most nature-depleted countries in the world, bottom of the table compared to the rest of the G7.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/apr/13/uk-bird-populations-continue-to-crash-as-government-poised-to-break-own-targetsLatest IPCC warming projections looking grim
The most recent AR6 Synthesis report by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which was released last month, painted a sobering projection for future warming based on different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. It is now very likely that global warming will continue to increase in the near term in nearly all considered scenarios. These projections were for the period 2081-2100 and were measured against the period from 1850-1900. It is very likely that even under low greenhouse gas emissions, the planet may warm 1.4 degrees Celcius on average by the end of the century. Under the intermediate greenhouse gas emission scenario, the world is projected to warm 2.7 degrees on average. Under the high emissions scenario, that number rises to an average of 4.4 degrees above the 1850-1900 mean. Based on a continuation of current, worldwide greenhouse gas emission policies [IPCC] now estimates that the world will warm an average of 3.2 degrees by the end of the century, compared to the second half of the 19th century [and] even with rapid and major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, it would take at least 20 years to see a sustained slowing of the global warming trend.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/climatechange/latest-ipcc-warming-projections-looking-grim/1511865
reporting on a study at https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/Bubble trouble: Climate change is creating a huge and growing U.S. real estate bubble
Homes constructed in flood plains, storm surge zones, regions with declining water availability, [in] the wildfire-prone West are overvalued by hundreds of billions of dollars, recent studies suggest, creating a housing bubble that puts the U.S. financial system at risk. The problem will get worse ... “As awareness of risk grows, the financial value of risky places drops. Where meeting that risk is more expensive than decision-makers think a place is worth, it simply won’t be defended. Then, value will crash” ... A 2023 study in the peer-reviewed journal Nature Climate Change has drawn attention to a massive real estate bubble in the U.S. — property that is overvalued by $121-$237 billion because of current flood risk. And that may be an underestimate. A 2022 study by actuarial and consulting firm Milliman put a much higher price tag on this bubble — $520 billion, with almost 3.5 million homeowners facing a decrease in property value greater than 10% ... Lack of water in dry states with water availability issues, like Arizona and California, has also created increased risk of property overvaluation ... home insurers are already pulling out of the most at-risk areas, which has led to an insurance crisis in three states — Florida, Louisiana, and California ... Homebuyers who can’t afford insurance can’t get a mortgage, and in those fire and flood zones where insurance rates skyrocket, many owners will try to sell, potentially triggering panic selling and a housing market collapse ... the underlying causes will worsen — sea levels will continue to rise, flooding heavy rains will intensify, and wildfires will grow more severe, increasing risk [and] a housing crisis can morph into a systemic financial crisis ... The 2023 study warned “declines in property values due to climate risk are unlikely to be temporary” ... One period of increased risk will likely occur in the mid-2030s, when a wobble in the moon’s orbit (part of a cycle that repeats every 18.6 years) will bring unusually high tides [but] given the highly concerning ramp-up in extreme weather in recent years, the housing bubble could burst sooner than that ... One thing is certain: The present-day trickle of Americans being displaced from high-risk areas because of climate change-worsened impacts is just beginning ... There isn’t going to be an orderly transition to a new society that is in balance with the 21st-century climate; a massive climate-change disruption is already underway.
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/04/bubble-trouble-climate-change-is-creating-a-huge-and-growing-u-s-real-estate-bubble/
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01594-8
reporting on a study at https://www.milliman.com/en/insight/unpriced-costs-of-flooding-an-emerging-risk-for-homeowners-and-lendersBook review: “The Great Displacement” is a must-read
This timely, important book by Jake Bittle argues that mass migration triggered by climate change will fundamentally rock U.S. society.
A massive worldwide societal upheaval is underway — the uprooting and displacement of huge numbers of people living in places growing increasingly risky to live in because of climate change ... [Bittle suggests] the patterns of displacement that arise because of climate change have already begun in small towns and remote places. Over time, the instability will spread to major cities and entire regions ... “The result will be a shambling retreat from mountain ranges and flood-prone riverbeds, back from the oceans, and out of the desert. It will take decades for these movements to coalesce, but once they do, they will reshape the demographic geography of the United States” ... Long before rising seas inundate coastal cities, the coastal real estate market will fall, and once property values decline, they will not go back up, Bittle writes. He likens owning a coastal home to holding a stick of dynamite with a long fuse ... Sea level rise will “cause a plunge in coastal property values that will inflict economic harm even on people whose homes have not suffered any damage, sharply reducing the value of the most valuable assets they own. As a city’s housing values decline, so, too, does its tax base ... Among the portion of the population that stays, there will be many who want to leave but can’t, who are tethered by their mortgages to homes they can’t sell.” Where will the displaced people go?
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/04/book-review-the-great-displacement-is-a-must-read/Europe Is Drying Up
“What we are looking at is something like a multiyear drought,” says Rohini Kumar of the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research in Germany. Unusually low rainfall and snowfall was recorded this winter not just in France but also in the UK, Ireland, Switzerland, and parts of Italy and Germany. The current predicament follows European droughts in 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2022. Last summer, drought exacerbated by record temperatures around the continent was in the headlines. The subsequent dry winter has meant that many aquifers—places underground that retain water—and surface reservoirs have not had a chance to recover. Now, summer beckons once again, and experts are worried that a severe water shortage could threaten lives, industry, and biodiversity in a big way.
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/europe-drought-2023A Toxic Time Bomb Is Ticking in the Arctic
An alarming new paper in the journal Nature Communications estimates that between 13,000 and 20,000 contaminated sites are splayed across Arctic permafrost regions, with 3,500 to 5,200 in areas that’ll be affected by thawing soils [warming] more than four times faster than the rest of the planet. And that estimated number of sites is likely low, the scientists warn, because thaw might dramatically accelerate in some places. As permafrost degrades, it collapses, releasing buried contaminants that flow out in the melted ice. The ground sinks—often spectacularly and rapidly—dragging down aboveground infrastructure like fuel tanks and pipelines ... 70 percent of these sites are in Russia, with others across Alaska, Canada, and Greenland ... Once the ground is no longer frozen enough to form a barrier, those contaminants will seep into rivers and ponds [that] will eventually empty into the ocean and ride elsewhere on currents. Toxicants can also get airborne ... Permafrost is already deforming communities in the far north. Airport runways are sinking, roads are wrinkling, and buildings are crumbling. “It's no longer some ambiguous thing that might happen in the future—it's happening today, even as we speak,” says Schaefer.
https://www.wired.com/story/a-toxic-time-bomb-is-ticking-in-the-arctic/
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-37276-4Carbon dioxide hits highest sustained rate ever recorded as greenhouse gases creep toward "uncharted levels," NOAA says
NOAA's latest report, published on Wednesday, looked at atmospheric levels of the three most significant contributors to climate change – carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide – in 2022. All of them, the agency said, continued to have "historically high rates of growth" ... Carbon dioxide was once again of particular concern ... Last year was also the 11th consecutive one in which carbon dioxide saw an increase greater than 2 ppm, marking "the highest sustained rate of CO2 increases in the 65 years since monitoring began," NOAA said in its report. "Prior to 2013, three consecutive years of CO2 growth of 2 ppm or more had never been recorded ... The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere today is comparable to where it was around 4.3 million years ago during the mid-Pliocene epoch, when sea level was about 75 feet higher than today, the average temperature was 7 degrees Fahrenheit higher than in pre-industrial times and studies indicate large forests occupied areas of the Arctic that are now tundra."
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/carbon-dioxide-highest-sustained-rate-ever-greenhouse-gases-uncharted-levels/
reporting on a study at https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/greenhouse-gases-continued-to-increase-rapidly-in-2022Ice sheets can collapse at 600 metres a day, far faster than feared, study finds
Ice sheets can collapse into the ocean in spurts of up to 600 metres (2,000 feet) a day, a study has found, far faster than recorded before [showing] that some ice sheets in Antarctica, including the “Doomsday” Thwaites glacier, could suffer periods of rapid collapse in the near future, further accelerating the rise of sea level ... The research, published in the journal Nature, used high-resolution mapping of the sea bed off Norway ... As the tides lifted the ice sheets up and down, sediments at the grounding line were squashed into ridges twice a day. As the base of the ice sheet melted over days and weeks, the grounding line retreated towards the shore, leaving behind sets of parallel ridges. Measuring the distance between the ridges enabled the scientists to calculate the speed of the Norwegian ice sheet collapse. They found speeds of between 50 metres a day and 600 metres a day. That is up to 20 times faster than the speediest retreat recorded previously by satellites.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/apr/05/ice-sheets-collapse-far-faster-than-feared-study-climate-crisis
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05876-1California snowpack one of the largest in state history
Officials with the California Department of Water Resources released the findings of the latest measurement of the sierra snowpack on Monday ... The survey recorded 126.5% inches of snow depth and a snow water equivalent of 54 inches. It is 221% of the April 3 average for that location. DWR's electronic readings from 130 snow sensors placed throughout the state indicate the statewide snowpack's snow water equivalent is 61.1 inches, or 237 percent of average for this date ... Although the record-breaking snowpack is good news for the drought in California, officials said it does bring flooding concerns when it melts.
https://www.cbsnews.com/losangeles/news/ca-snowpack-largest-in-state-history/3Buildings Crumble High in the Alps as Permafrost Thaws
Safe access to the world’s tallest peaks could disappear as temperatures rise in the Alps
Giacomelli is president of the association that owns [722] huts and bivouacs—smaller, unattended buildings that are crucial waystations for people ascending numerous peaks ... Geologic studies confirmed [that] Rifugio Casati sat on permafrost-rich soil that warming temperatures were thawing. The soil’s shifting morphology was straining the building’s foundation, and the southern part of the building appeared to be sinking. Rock falls were becoming more frequent on the mountainside, too, and coming closer and closer to the building ... Temperatures over the past few decades have risen considerably in the Alps ... twice as fast as the global average [and] as the ground warms, ice in the permafrost melts, and the soil thaws. The soil slumps and pulls apart, which increases the frequency of landslides, as well as rock falls. “The glue isn’t there anymore,” says Antonella Senese, a glaciology and climate science researcher at the University of Milan in Italy.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/buildings-crumble-high-in-the-alps-as-permafrost-thaws/Delaying the inevitable: Italy’s desperate attempts to revive snowless ski resorts
Rising temperatures threaten the skiing industry worldwide but Italy, with its many relatively low-altitude resorts in the Apennines as well as the Alps, is particularly badly affected. Some 90 per cent of Italy's pistes rely on artificial snow ... the annual water consumption of Italy's Alpine pistes may soon be as much as a city of a million people [and] the energy consumed by an ever-growing battery of snow cannons is also exorbitant ... economists and climatologists argue that trying to keep low-altitude ski resorts in business is destined to fail, and snow-making merely delays the inevitable. "Even if artificial snow can reduce the financial losses from occasional instances of snow-deficient winters, it cannot protect against systemic long-term [climate] trends," Bank of Italy researchers said in a report.
https://www.euronews.com/green/2023/04/03/delaying-the-inevitable-italys-desperate-attempts-to-revive-snowless-ski-resorts‘Forever chemicals’ linked to infertility in women, study shows
Women with higher levels of so-called “forever chemicals” in their blood have a 40% lower chance of becoming pregnant within a year of trying to conceive, according to the first known study on the effect of PFAS on female fertility. PFAS, or per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, have been found in almost everyone tested for them ... PFAS are a group of chemicals that are water- and oil-resistant, and are used in a vast array of products, from non-stick cookware and food containers to clothing and furnishings. They are often called forever chemicals because they are very slow to break down in the environment and are now widely found in water and soil. They have been increasingly linked to health damage ... [endocrine disruptor] effect of PFAS levels on fertility was greater when they were considered as a mixture, rather than individually. “That makes sense, because multiple chemicals may act together to impact our health at a much greater level than one chemical,” said Valvi ... previous work has shown the chemicals impact hormones and egg production and function, as well as being linked to polycystic ovarian syndrome ... PFAS also affect the health of the mother and baby, Valvi said, such as preeclampsia and neurodevelopmental delays. “PFAS have been detected in cord blood, the placenta, and breast milk. Preventing exposure to PFAS is therefore essential to protect women’s health as well as the health of their children” ... The link between PFAS exposure and reduced fertility in women was also reported in an analysis of 13 earlier studies.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/apr/06/forever-chemicals-infertility-women-pfas-blood
reporting on a study at https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S00489697230088351 in 6 people globally affected by infertility: WHO
Large numbers of people are affected by infertility in their lifetime, according to a new report published today by WHO ... The new estimates show limited variation in the prevalence of infertility between regions. The rates are comparable for high-, middle- and low-income countries, indicating that this is a major health challenge globally. Lifetime prevalence was 17.8% in high-income countries and 16.5% in low- and middle-income countries. “The report reveals an important truth: infertility does not discriminate,” said Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General at WHO. “The sheer proportion of people affected show the need to widen access to fertility care and ensure this issue is no longer sidelined in health research and policy, so that safe, effective, and affordable ways to attain parenthood are available for those who seek it.” Infertility is a disease of the male or female reproductive system, defined by the failure to achieve a pregnancy after 12 months or more of regular unprotected sexual intercourse.
https://www.who.int/news/item/04-04-2023-1-in-6-people-globally-affected-by-infertilityScientists in Arctic race to preserve 'ice memory'
Italian, French and Norwegian researchers are in Norway's Svalbard archipelago in what they called a race against time to preserve crucial ice records for analyzing past environmental conditions ... "Glaciers at high latitudes, such as those in the Arctic, have begun to melt at a high rate," said paleoclimatologist Carlo Barbante, vice-chairman of the Ice Memory Foundation that is running the mission. "We want to recover and preserve, for future generations of scientists, these extraordinary archives of our Planet's climate before all the information they contain is completely lost" ... the ice cores will be transported by sea to Europe and later to the other end of the globe, for storage at a Franco-Italian Antarctic research station. There, on territory protected by the Antarctic Treaty, they will be stored under the snow at minus 50C, where no power is needed to keep them cool. "In coming decades, researchers will have new ideas and techniques to give voice to these archives," the researchers said in a statement.
https://phys.org/news/2023-04-scientists-arctic-ice-memory.htmlIt keeps getting worse: Florida property insurance rates set to jump up to 60%
“The containment system has failed on rates, and rates are going through the roof, and they are all justified rate increases, especially Hurricane Ian and what is going on in the reinsurance space,” says Brandes. Reinsurance, the insurance that insurance carriers buy to protect themselves from high claims, has been a major concern for years, with carriers going into receivership as they struggle with costs. In May, the Florida Legislature set aside $2 billion to help cover reinsurance, adding another $1 billion in December. The state has also passed several laws to limit the ability of homeowners to sue for claims while also curtailing the assignment of benefits and one-way attorney’s fees. The plan from state leaders was to create an environment where large private carriers, who have all but abandoned the state, would return. That has not happened.
https://www.wftv.com/news/local/it-keeps-getting-worse-florida-property-insurance-rates-set-jump-up-60/H2VSAYGFSNEBDGXAMFIESJP4B4/Climate tipping points triggered extreme warming
As temperatures on Earth keep rising, many climate scientists have cautioned [that underground reservoirs with huge quantities of stored carbon] could become unstable and lead to a tipping point: an abrupt release of huge amounts of greenhouse gases ... A new NESSC study published in Science Advances now shows for the first time that rapid global warming phases in the geological past ... were indeed caused by climate tipping points [which] destabilized other carbon reservoirs, triggering the release of more carbon. Global temperatures spiked even further [allowing] the chain reaction to continue ... “After crossing a tipping point, a new stable situation arises that is irreversible for a long time. From the perspective of a human life span, these changes can be described as permanent,” says Setty.
https://www.nessc.nl/climate-tipping-points-triggered-extreme-warming/
reporting on a study at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.ade5466Water [rationing] in drought-stricken Tunisia adds to growing crisis
Risk of unrest rises amid fourth dry year, poor grain harvest, weak economy and likely food subsidy cuts
Tunisia has introduced water rationing as the country suffers its fourth year of severe drought. The state water distribution company, Sonede, has already begun cutting mains water supplies every night between 9pm and 4am ... Reservoirs across the country are said to be about 30% short of capacity. Levels at the Sidi Salem reservoir, which serves the north of the country, including Tunis, are only about 16% full ... While water shortages will directly affect householders, the water ban for farmers, who account for about 75% of Tunisia’s water consumption, will be especially significant. The drought will prove “disastrous”, a farmers union official, Mohamed Rjaibia, told Reuters last week, when rationing was announced. This year’s grain crop is already predicted to be only a third of last year’s [and] there are fears the water cuts could further stoke social unrest.
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/apr/05/water-ban-in-drought-stricken-tunisia-adds-to-growing-crisisThe next deadly pandemic is just a forest clearing away. But we’re not even trying to prevent it.
Dangerous conditions were brewing before [ebola] leaped from animals to humans in Meliandou, an event scientists call spillover. Researchers considered more than 100 variables that could contribute to an Ebola outbreak and found that the ones that began in Meliandou and six other locations in Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo were best explained by forest loss in the two years leading up to the first cases ... the same dangerous pattern of deforestation has increased. “I think this is very powerful,” said Raina Plowright, a professor of disease ecology at Cornell University and senior author of the model, who reviewed ProPublica’s findings. “Even though we know the fundamental driver of these outbreaks, we have effectively done nothing to stop the ignition of a future outbreak” ... land-use change, especially clearing forests for agriculture, is the biggest driver of spillover. Researchers have also found that it’s not just the amount of forest cut down but the pattern of deforestation that matters. Cutting one big chunk out of a forest would create less edge than cutting out many holes [where] people and animals overlap ... Experts convened at the request of the WHO acknowledged that deforestation was leading to more collisions between humans and wildlife, but last June, they argued that spending much of the fund on spillover would be a waste of money. Scientists warn that this defeatist attitude is setting our world up for another catastrophe. Studies have shown that spillover events are increasing ... The experts convened by the WHO are not wrong about the gargantuan effort it would take to reduce the chances of spillover worldwide [but] the expense would be a drop in the bucket compared with the hundreds of billions of dollars in economic losses from outbreaks each year, not to mention the cost of lives lost.
https://www.propublica.org/article/pandemic-spillover-outbreak-guinea-forest-clearingCrucial Antarctic ocean circulation heading for collapse if planet-warming pollution remains high, scientists warn
Melting ice in the Antarctic is not just raising sea levels but slowing down the circulation of deep ocean water with vast implications for the global climate and for marine life, a new study warns. Led by scientists from the University of New South Wales and published Wednesday in the journal Nature, the peer-reviewed study modeled the impact of melting Antarctic ice on deep ocean currents [and] found the Antarctic overturning circulation – also known as abyssal ocean overturning – is on track to slow 42% by 2050 if the world continues to burn fossil fuels and produce high levels of planet-heating pollution ... [The current] does an important job moving nutrient-dense water north from Antarctica, past New Zealand and into the North Pacific Ocean, the North Atlantic and Indian Ocean [and] is considered vital for the health of the sea ... “One of the concerning things of this slowdown is that there can be feedback to further ocean warming at the base of the ice shelves around Antarctica. And that would lead to more ice melt, reinforcing or amplifying the original change,” England said.
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/29/world/antarctic-overturning-collapse-2050-climate-scn-intl-hnk
see also https://e360.yale.edu/features/climate-change-ocean-circulation-collapse-antarctica
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05762-wThawing permafrost poses environmental threat to thousands of sites with legacy industrial contamination
Industrial contaminants accumulated in Arctic permafrost regions have been largely neglected in existing climate impact analyses. Here we identify about 4500 industrial sites where potentially hazardous substances are actively handled or stored in the permafrost-dominated regions of the Arctic. Furthermore, we estimate that between 13,000 and 20,000 contaminated sites are related to these industrial sites. Ongoing climate warming will increase the risk of contamination and mobilization of toxic substances since about 1100 industrial sites and 3500 to 5200 contaminated sites located in regions of stable permafrost will start to thaw before the end of this century. This poses a serious environmental threat, which is exacerbated by climate change in the near future.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-37276-4How pollution is causing a male fertility crisis
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230327-how-pollution-is-causing-a-male-fertility-crisis
reporting on a study at https://academic.oup.com/humupd/article/29/2/157/68244141,000 Years of Tree Rings Show Just How Hardcore the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heat Wave Was
A study published in the journal Climate and Atmospheric Science looked at tree rings in the Pacific Northwest going back to the year 950. The rings showed how the last 40 years have been some of the hottest on record ... “Even during the warmest interval of the [Medieval Climate Anomaly], mean of summer temperatures during this time are approximately 0.59 °C cooler than those documented since 1979,” the study says. They also noted that the largest rates of temperature change have occurred in the last decades ... “While the 2021 value substantially increases the period’s average anomaly, even without its inclusion, the period from 1979—2020 CE is still the warmest on record,” the team wrote.
https://gizmodo.com/2021-pacific-northwest-heat-wave-tree-rings-science-1850280268
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-023-00340-3This Winter's Floods May Be 'Only a Taste' of the Megafloods to Come, Climate Scientists Warn
Climate scientists warn that what Californians have lived through in recent months is just a preview of what’s to come, with exponentially worse flooding predicted in future years. “As disruptive as this year's events have been, we're nowhere near to a plausible worst-case storm and flood scenario for California,” said UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain ... A 2022 study Swain co-authored found that the warming climate has already doubled the probability of a megaflood caused by a string of extreme atmospheric rivers. Every degree of new warming increases that likelihood even more, he said. In other words, what was once considered unlikely to happen in our lifetimes “has become quite likely.”
https://www.kqed.org/science/1982079/this-winters-floods-may-be-only-a-taste-of-the-megafloods-to-come-climate-scientists-warnA new tropical mosquito has come to Florida. The buzz it's creating isn't good
The mosquito — known by its scientific name of Culex lactator — is typically found in Central and South America. Researchers with the University of Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory first discovered it in a rural area near Miami in 2018. It's since spread to other counties in Southwest Florida. Scientists say climate change appears to be a factor that's making the state and other parts of the U.S. welcoming to non-native mosquitoes that can carry diseases. The U.S. faces public health challenges related to diseases like West Nile, dengue, and chikungunya, all of which are spread by non-native mosquitoes that have become established.
https://www.npr.org/2023/03/22/1164937874/uh-oh-a-new-tropical-mosquito-has-come-to-florida-the-buzz-its-creating-isnt-goo
see also https://weather.com/news/climate/news/2023-03-01-climate-change-malaria-mosquitoes-heatAfter food crisis, massive water shortage to hit Pakistan
Pakistan, the country which is currently facing its worst economic collapse along with a food crisis during the holy month of Ramadan, is now heading toward a massive water shortage [just] months after unprecedented floods submerged large swathes of land ... The cash-strapped country is struggling with a food crisis [with] long queues for free flour across several parts of the country.
https://www.livemint.com/news/world/after-food-crisis-massive-water-shortage-to-hit-pakistan-in-kharif-season-11680149530492.htmlUN warns against 'vampiric' global water use
"In our report, we say that up to 3.5 billion people live under conditions of water stress at least one month a year," he told the BBC. According to the most recent UN climate report, "roughly half of the world's population currently experience severe water scarcity for at least part of the year". Mr Connor told reporters that "uncertainties are increasing" when it comes to global water supply. "If we don't address it, there definitely will be a global crisis," he said
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-65035041Record Heat Waves Push India Closer to Limit of Human Survival
India, on course to becoming the world’s most-populous country, risks approaching the limit of human survival as it experiences more intense and frequent heat waves ... “India is typically more humid than equivalently hot places, like the Sahara. This means sweating is less efficient, or not efficient at all.” This is why in India a measurement known as the wet-bulb reading — which combines air temperature and relative humidity — provides a better gauge of heat stress on the human body. A November report by the World Bank cautioned that India could become one of the first places in the world where wetbulb temperatures could soar past the survivability threshold of 35°C.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-27/record-heat-waves-push-india-closer-to-limit-of-human-survivalArctic Sea Ice Likely Irrevocably Lost Norwegian Scientists Conclude
Researchers have identified the mechanism leading to the rapid collapse of sea ice extent between 2005 and 2007. More ocean heat in ice formation areas in Siberia resulted in weaker ice, which was more prone to being ejected from the Arctic Basin through the Fram Strait. This ice loss is likely irreversible, the study concludes ... Arctic sea ice entered a new state following the record-melt in 2007, the scientists explain. Rather than a gradual change in sea ice pattern, 2007 represents a “stepwise shift” to a new normal.
https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/arctic-sea-ice-likely-irrevocably-lost-norwegian-scientists-conclude
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05686-xSupercharged El Niño Could Speed Up Southern Ocean Warming
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), will become more intense if global temperatures continue to rise. Research now has revealed that projected changes to this global weather maker will also influence the remote Southern Ocean. Using the latest climate models, scientists have shown that enhanced El Niño events will likely speed the heating of deep-ocean waters around Antarctica, with the potential for accelerated melting of the continent’s land-held ice. Scientists are concerned about how stronger El Niño events could affect the Antarctic because of the potential for sea level rise. The Antarctic Ice Sheet holds about 60% of the world’s freshwater—enough to raise global sea levels by around 70 meters ... The analysis also showed that although the ocean surface will warm more slowly, the deeper ocean around Antarctica will warm more quickly, exposing the ice shelves that fringe the continent to heat from below. These shelves do the important job of holding back glaciers on land. Deep-ocean warming could destabilize and melt the floating ice, allowing land-held ice sheets to slide more easily into the ocean, raising sea level ... “Scientists have known from satellite observations that Antarctic ice shelves typically lose mass during El Niño events,” said Helen Fricker, a glaciologist with the Scripps Institution of Oceanography who was not involved in the study. The loss occurs because an influx of warm water melts the ice shelves from below, she explained. “What’s new is that we now have a preview of how they could respond as El Niño intensifies.”
https://eos.org/articles/supercharged-el-nino-could-speed-up-southern-ocean-warming
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01610-xSpain mulls options as wildfires gain in size, intensity
Walking through the charred remains of the forested hillsides of Sierra de la Culebra that were devastated by Spain's worst wildfire last year, Pablo Martin Pinto is blunt. "We are moving from the era of big forest fires to mega forest fires in Spain," says this wildfire expert from Valladolid University, warning that such vast blazes were "here to stay" ... Although spring has only just begun, some 700 firefighters have been battling Spain's first major forest fire [which] was more typical of summer than spring ... If Spain experiences "another summer in which temperatures don't fall below 35C for 20 days and it doesn't rain for four months, the vegetation will be liable to go up in flames" with the first lightning bolt, he warned ... The forest might one day live again, but "no-one who is alive today will be around to see it", says Juarez ... "We are going to see more and more fires, and bigger ones."
https://phys.org/news/2023-03-spain-mulls-options-wildfires-gain.htmlSpain enters long-term drought after another abnormally warm winter
For the first time on record, Spain has seen five unusually warm winters in a row ... This winter, despite moments of chilly temperatures, there were no official “cold waves.” Instead, temperatures were an average of 0.8 C (1.44 F) warmer than usual in Peninsular Spain. At the same time, Spain saw its hottest December on record. While Spain received slightly more precipitation than normal this winter, it wasn’t enough to pull the country out of a drought ... summer is even more challenging to predict accurately, but the weather agency said signs point to another abnormally hot summer that could be marked by major forest fires.
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/spain-enters-long-term-drought-after-another-abnormally-warm-winter/2848528Wall Street is thirsty for its next big investment opportunity: The West’s vanishing water
Critics accuse Greenstone – a subsidiary of the East Coast financial services conglomerate MassMutual – of trying to profit off Cibola’s most precious and limited resource: water. And it comes at a time when Arizona’s allocation of Colorado River water is being slashed amid a decadeslong megadrought. “These companies aren’t buying up plots of land because they want to farm here and be a part of the community, they’re buying up land here for the water rights,” said Holly Irwin, a Cibola resident and La Paz County district supervisor ... “These companies are actually pretty savvy in that they come out West, purchase and pick up cheap rural agricultural land, they sit on it for a little while and then they’re trying to sell the water,” Lingenfelter said ... East Coast firms have bought up thousands of acres of irrigated land across the Southwest. Water Asset Management, a New York-based investment firm, has become one of the biggest players in the field, with purchases in Arizona, California, Colorado and Nevada as well as pending deals in New Mexico and Texas.
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/22/business/southwest-water-colorado-river-wall-street-climate/index.htmlThis is how the German forest is doing
The old giants are dying in the forest. But this ailing can also be seen in the younger trees
About every fourth tree in Germany struggles with “medium crown thinning”, i.e. has lost between a quarter and almost two thirds of its leaves or needles in its crown. Damage to all tree species has increased since 1984, sometimes significantly. 40 percent of the spruces in the Federal Republic have clearly lost needles – or even all of them. In the case of pine, even 13 percent more trees than in the previous year are affected by significant needle loss ... only every fifth tree in Germany still has an intact crown. These are the results of the “Forest Condition Survey 2022” presented by Federal Minister of Agriculture Cem Özdemir in Berlin this Tuesday. “The year 2022 was again too dry and too warm. Even the wet months of February and September could not compensate for the summer water deficit in our forest” ... Significant crown thinning [means] that between 26 and 100 percent of the leaves or needles are missing – or the tree is completely dead. A long-term comparison shows how much the situation of the forests has deteriorated ... In 2022, in all of Germany, only 19 percent of the oak trees examined [were still healthy and had a full crown] ... A lack of water, climate change and pest infestation hit some conifers particularly hard.
https://newsingermany.com/this-is-how-the-german-forest-is-doing-politics/
original German version at https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/wald-waldsterben-kronenverlichtung-waldschadensbericht-1.5772543Number of city dwellers lacking safe water to double by 2050
UN report predicts water demand will increase by 80% as crisis threatens to get out of control Nearly 1 billion people in cities around the world face water scarcity today and the number is likely to reach between 1.7 billion and 2.4 billion within the next three decades, according to the UN World Water Development Report, published on Tuesday ahead of a vital UN summit. Urban water demand is predicted to increase by 80% by 2050. Water shortages are also becoming a more frequent occurrence in rural areas, the report found. Currently, between 2 billion and 3 billion people experience water shortages for at least a month a year.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/22/number-city-dwellers-lacking-access-safe-water-double-2050UN climate report shows world is flying blind into the storm
Global warming is bad and getting worse ... In its latest report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) describes a world of long-foreseen impacts arriving now with shocking power. Human suffering — especially among the poor — will increase rapidly in the coming decades ... in many critical areas, IPCC scientists say the world is flying blind into the storm [and] there are still far too many unknowns to say with certainty how and when the most devastating impacts will hit ... Experts still know relatively little about when and where these types of extreme climate events will happen. Or what happens when two events, like a drought and a heat wave, hit one place simultaneously ... IPCC classified between 3.3 billion to 3.6 billion people — almost half of the world's total population — as being among the most vulnerable, with people in the developing world hit hardest. But in rich countries too, the poor, the old, the sick, the young and the marginalized will be less equipped to face the challenges ahead ... What’s clear is that there’s a direct correlation between rising temperatures and the likelihood of changes turning increasingly irreversible.
https://www.politico.eu/article/un-climate-crisis-report-ipcc-world-fly-blind-storm/Fertilizer additive makes [farm animal] slurry more climate-friendly
Over the past 200 years, the concentration of methane in the atmosphere has more than doubled. This is mainly due to human meat consumption [and] the excrement of the animals ... [German scientists] have now presented a promising solution to the problem, presented in Waste Management. “We combined slurry from a farm in the lab with calcium cyanamide, a chemical that has been used as a fertilizer in agriculture for more than 100 years. This brought methane production to an almost complete halt.” Overall, emissions fell by 99 per cent. This effect started barely an hour after the addition and persisted until the end of the experiment half a year later. The long effectiveness is important, because slurry is not simply discarded. Rather, it is stored until the beginning of the following growing season and then spread on the fields as a valuable fertilizer. Months of storage are therefore quite common. [Calcium cyanamide] has other advantages as well: It enriches the slurry with nitrogen and thus improves its fertilizing effect.
https://www.the-microbiologist.com/news/fertilizer-additive-makes-slurry-more-climate-friendly/721.article
reporting on a study at https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0956053X23001952New research highlights an overlooked accelerant of ice loss from Antarctica's Thwaites Glacier
Thwaites Glacier is often called the "doomsday glacier" because of its massive size and potential to dramatically raise global sea levels ... new research, published March 7 in Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface [found] that the observed thinning of Thwaites Glacier, together with changes in the slope of its surface and the conditions at its base, makes both sides prone to move a few miles outward over the next 20 years ... "If the widening trend were to continue and were to accelerate, then we'd better know. It would mean that we would have to prepare for higher sea levels," said [senior study author Jenny Suckale, an assistant professor of geophysics at the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability], who is one of dozens of scientists working to understand the glacier and its response to climate change as part of the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration.
https://phys.org/news/2023-03-highlights-overlooked-ice-loss-antarctica.html
reporting on a study at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2022JF006958Total weight of wild mammals less than 10% of humanity’s
The total weight of Earth’s wild land mammals – from elephants to bisons and from deer to tigers – is now less than 10% of the combined tonnage of men, women and children living on the planet ... wild land mammals alive today have a total mass of 22m tonnes. By comparison, humanity now weighs in at a total of around 390m tonnes. At the same time, the species we have domesticated, such as sheep and cattle, in addition to other hangers-on such as urban rodents, add a further 630m tonnes to the total mass of creatures that are now competing with wild mammals for Earth’s resources. The biomass of pigs alone is nearly double that of all wild land mammals. The figures demonstrate starkly that humanity’s transformation of the planet’s wildernesses and natural habitats into a vast global plantation is now well under way – with devastating consequences for its wild creatures. As the study authors emphasise, the idea that Earth is a planet that still possesses great plains and jungles that are teeming with wild animals is now seriously out of kilter with reality.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/18/a-wake-up-call-total-weight-of-wild-mammals-less-than-10-of-humanitys
see also https://www.science.org/content/article/who-rules-earth-wild-mammals-far-outweighed-humans-and-domestic-animals
reporting on a study at https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2204892120This community’s quarter century without a newborn shows the scale of Japan’s population crisis
Japan's rural communities are dying out. The problem is, so are its cities
More than 90% of Japanese now live in urban areas like Tokyo, Osaka and Kyoto. That has left rural areas and industries like agriculture, forestry, and farming facing a critical labor shortage that will likely get worse in the coming years as the workforce ages. [Plus,] people in the cities aren’t having babies either ... the world’s third-largest economy [is] facing the unenviable task of trying to fund pensions and health care for a ballooning elderly population even as the workforce shrinks ... Amid a flood of disconcerting demographic data, [Prime Minister Fumio Kishida] warned earlier this year the country was “on the brink of not being able to maintain social functions” ... The country saw 799,728 births in 2022, the lowest number on record and barely more than half the 1.5 million births it registered in 1982. Its fertility rate – the average number of children born to women during their reproductive years – has fallen to 1.3 – far below the 2.1 required to maintain a stable population. Deaths have outpaced births for more than a decade.
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/17/asia/japan-population-crisis-countryside-cities-intl-hnk-dst/index.htmlGlobal fresh water demand will outstrip supply by 40% by 2030, say experts
The world is facing an imminent water crisis, with demand expected to outstrip the supply of fresh water by 40% by the end of this decade ... Johan Rockstrom, the director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and co-chair of the Global Commission on the Economics of Water, and a lead author of the report, [said] the world’s neglect of water resources was leading to disaster. “The scientific evidence is that we have a water crisis. We are misusing water, polluting water, and changing the whole global hydrological cycle, through what we are doing to the climate. It’s a triple crisis.” The report marks the first time the global water system has been scrutinised comprehensively and its value to countries – and the risks to their prosperity if water is neglected – laid out in clear terms.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/17/global-fresh-water-demand-outstrip-supply-by-2030
reporting on a study at https://turningthetide.watercommission.org/
see also https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/press-release/half-world-face-severe-water-stress-2030-unless-water-use-decoupledConfirmed: Global floods, droughts worsening with warming
The intensity of extreme drought and rainfall has "sharply" increased over the past 20 years, according to a study published Monday in the journal Nature Water. These aren't merely tough weather events, they are leading to extremes such as crop failure, infrastructure damage, even humanitarian crises and conflict ... researchers say the data confirms that both frequency and intensity of rainfall and droughts are increasing due to burning fossil fuels and other human activity that releases greenhouse gases ... [this] means continued global warming will mean more drought and rainstorms that are worse by many measures—more frequent, more severe, longer and larger ... it's a mistake to assume that future wet and dry extremes can be managed the same as in the past because "everything's going to get amplified on both ends of the dry-wet spectrum."
https://phys.org/news/2023-03-global-droughts-worsening.html
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s44221-023-00040-5'Endless, brutal heat': Argentina's late-season heatwave has 'no similarities in history'
The country's summer, which technically runs from December to February, was by far the hottest on record, according to Maximiliano Herrara, a climatologist who tracks extreme temperatures across the globe. And, so far, March has offered no relief. Temperatures during the first 10 days of March were 8 to 10 degrees Celsius (14 to 18 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal in east-central Argentina, according to the country's National Meteorological Service. These temperature anomalies, which have persisted over huge areas, are unprecedented, Herrara said. "There is nothing similar that has ever happened in climatic history in Argentina at this scale." Herrara said he had expected a "scorching summer" in Argentina due to the impacts of La Niña, a climate pattern which tends to bring hotter, drier summers to the region.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/endless-brutal-heat-argentinas-late-season-heatwave-has-no-similarities-in-history/1498132Heat waves happen at the bottom of the ocean too
In a paper published in the journal Nature Communications, a team led by NOAA researchers [generated] the first broad assessment of bottom marine heat waves ... Marine heat waves dramatically impact the health of ocean ecosystems around the globe [but most] research has focused on temperature extremes at the ocean’s surface [and] bottom marine heat waves tend to persist longer than their surface counterparts.
https://research.noaa.gov/article/ArtMID/587/ArticleID/2954/Heat-waves-happen-at-the-bottom-of-the-ocean-too
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-36567-0Why East Antarctica is a 'sleeping giant' of sea level rise
Scientists once thought the East Antarctic ice sheet, which contains enough water to raise sea levels 52m (170ft), was stable. But now its ice shelves are beginning to melt. He had not expected to see [Conger ice shelf] disintegrate so quickly. "All of a sudden the rest of the land-fast ice collapsed ... features we had been monitoring for years weren't there anymore" ... When [ice shelves] break up, the glaciers behind them can start flowing faster into the sea, contributing to sea level rise. [Conger] was the first ice shelf on record to collapse in East Antarctica ... While the melting West Antarctic ice sheet may have already reached a tipping point, scientists had long thought that its eastern counterpart, the coldest place on Earth, was resistant to global warming. But new research is revealing chinks in East Antarctica's icy armour ... The speedy collapse of the Conger's ice shelf came after some of the most dramatically warm weather ever observed in Antarctica.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230309-climate-change-the-sea-level-rise-locked-in-east-antarcticaThe Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a melting point of no return
A new study using simulations identified two tipping points for the Greenland Ice Sheet: releasing 1000 gigatons of carbon into the atmosphere will cause the southern portion of the ice sheet to melt; about 2500 gigatons of carbon means permanent loss of nearly the entire ice sheet ... "The first tipping point is not far from today's climate conditions, so we're in danger of crossing it," said Dennis Höning, a climate scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research who led the study. "Once we start sliding, we will fall off this cliff and cannot climb back up." ... Previous research identified global w
