Climate Research: partial list, recent years only
This partial list only contains the Research citations from this year and last year. You may prefer the full list which has thousands of citations and references going back 200 years to the beginning of modern climate science. Please be patient as it loads.
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I've been following the scientific literature regarding climate change for quite a while, and saved articles and studies I found especially interesting. These are almost entirely from major peer-reviewed scientific journals, government science research agencies, and mainstream media reporting on such studies. Dates are often visible in the entry's link. The list is in roughly chronological order, most recent at the top. To observe the accelerating pace of climate change, read the full list page from bottom to top, or if that seems daunting read just the last few years on this page. To seek a specific topic use your browser's Search to find keywords; the Citations buttons on the Scenarios page may also be helpful.
To be notified when this list is updated, use one of the free page-change services; pagecrawl.io works well but there are many others. This list will be updated as I find more to add. Your suggestions and comments are welcome.
Those interested in the history of the climate crisis might like the 2000 and earlier section, which covers discoveries, presentations and warnings starting from the early 1800s (beginning of modern climate science). This loads from the full list page.
The timeline of earth's average temperature is from xkcd. Click it to go to the original.
Go to reports, articles, and studies published in:
2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019 · 2018 · 2017 · 2016 · 2015-2011 · 2010-2001 · 2000 and earlier
Links before last year will go to the full list page.
In Our New Climate Reality, There Is No Getting Back to Normal
The mainstream conversation is fixated on these same issues: how to get back to normal and maintain the city, and the life, Angelenos have known. As if the record heat, droughts, and wildfires won’t keep on getting worse with each fraction of a degree of warming, rendering today’s “resilience” obsolete. As if communities at the wildland-urban interface aren’t already uninsurable against unfightable fires, requiring a massive public intervention. As if some kind of retreat, planned or otherwise, won’t be necessary—as it already is in places like coastal Florida and across large swaths of the planet, most disastrously in the Global South, where the conditions of life are fast becoming untenable and the capacity to relocate, rebuild, and adapt is all but nonexistent. As if this “new normal” of climate extremes isn’t itself a fleeting moment on the fossil-fueled way to uninhabitability.
https://www.thenation.com/article/environment/climate-reality-fires-los-angeles/World's Largest Iceberg Breaking Up
An enormous chunk has broken off the world's largest iceberg. The colossal iceberg – which is more than twice the size of Greater London and weighs nearly one trillion tonnes – had largely stayed intact since it started slowly moving north in 2020. But a chunk about 19 kilometres (12 miles) long has cleaved off, said Andrew Meijers from the British Antarctic Survey, who encountered the iceberg in late 2023 and has tracked its fate via satellite ever since. The jagged piece has an area of roughly 80 square kilometres (31 square miles) – huge in its own right, but just a fraction of the approximately 3360 square kilometres that remained. Known as A23a, the world's biggest and oldest iceberg calved from the Antarctic shelf in 1986. It remained stuck for over 30 years before finally breaking free in 2020, its lumbering journey north sometimes delayed by ocean forces that kept it spinning in place.
https://www.sciencealert.com/worlds-largest-iceberg-breaking-up-as-enormous-chunk-falls-offCracks in Greenland Ice Sheet grow more rapidly in response to climate change
The Greenland Ice Sheet is cracking open more rapidly as it responds to climate change. The warning comes in a new large-scale study of crevasses on the world's second largest body of ice ... the increases in crevasses are happening more quickly than previously detected. Crevasses are wedge-shaped fractures or cracks that open in glaciers where ice begins to flow faster. The researchers say that crevasses are also getting bigger and deeper where ice is flowing more quickly due to climate change, and that this could further speed up the mechanisms behind the loss of ice from Greenland [which] contains enough ice to add 7 meters (23 feet) of sea level rise to the world's oceans if the entire ice sheet were to melt.
https://phys.org/news/2025-01-greenland-ice-sheet-rapidly-response.html
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-024-01636-6There's not enough coffee. Is the world ready for a coffee crisis?
Last year, Environment Minister Marina Silva estimated that more than half of Brazil’s territory faced what was considered the worst drought in 50 years. For the 2025 season, Brazil’s agriculture agency, CONAB , projects a 4.4% reduction in coffee production ... poor harvests not only in the South American country, but also to climatic problems in Vietnam, the largest producer of robusta coffee. Severe droughts and adverse flooding have significantly reduced its production in recent years. The world is estimated to have consumed more coffee than it produces for four consecutive years, creating a global deficit of between 15 and 20 million bags of coffee ... the situation for 2025-2026 looks no different. The US Department of Agriculture projects that global coffee stocks could fall to the second-lowest level in 65 years, with a possibility of hitting a historic low.
https://www.bloomberglinea.com/mercados/no-hay-cafe-para-tanta-gente-esta-listo-el-mundo-para-una-crisis-de-cultivo-del-grano/Climate-related cocoa shortages put strain on the global chocolate industry
Climate change is transforming agriculture worldwide, with shifting weather patterns wreaking havoc on production systems [and] cocoa is no exception ... Heavy flooding and crop disease in West Africa last year intensified a growing bean deficit in the region, which produces over 60% of the world’s cocoa. Increasingly unfavorable growing conditions place additional stress on production systems ... The International Cocoa Organization projects that global cocoa supply will drop by 13% to 4.38 billion tons in 2024, with cocoa stocks potentially hitting their lowest levels in 45 years.
https://www.marketplace.org/2025/01/03/climate-related-cocoa-shortages-put-strain-on-the-global-chocolate-industry/Levels of microplastics in human brains may be rapidly rising, study suggests
The exponential rise in microplastic pollution over the past 50 years may be reflected in increasing contamination in human brains, according to a new study. It found a rising trend in micro- and nanoplastics in brain tissue from dozens of postmortems carried out between 1997 and 2024. The researchers also found the tiny particles in liver and kidney samples. The human body is widely contaminated by microplastics ... found in blood, semen, breast milk, placentas and bone marrow ... and have polluted the entire planet, from the summit of Mount Everest to the deepest oceans. People consume the tiny particles via food, water and by breathing them in. A study published on Thursday found tiny plastic pollution to be significantly higher in placentas from premature births ... Prof Tamara Galloway at the University of Exeter in the UK, who was not part of the study team, said the 50% increase in levels of brain microplastics over the past eight years mirrored the increasing production and use of plastics and was significant.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/feb/03/levels-of-microplastics-in-human-brains-may-be-rapidly-rising-study-suggests
see also https://www.endocrine.org/news-and-advocacy/news-room/2024/latest-science-shows-endocrine-disrupting-chemicals-in-pose-health-threats-globally
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-024-03453-1Study finds microplastic contamination in 99% of seafood samples
Microplastics contamination is widespread in seafood sampled in a recent study, adding to growing evidence of the dangerous substances’ ubiquity in the nation’s food system, and a growing threat to human health ... Microplastics have been detected in water samples around the world, and food is thought to be a main exposure route: recent studies found them in all meat and produce products tested. Microplastic pollution can contain any number of 16,000 plastic chemicals, and often is attached to highly toxic compounds – like PFAS, bisphenol and phthalates – linked to cancer, neurotoxicity, hormone [endocrine] disruption or developmental toxicity.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/03/seafood-microplastic-contamination-study
reporting on a study at https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/toxicology/articles/10.3389/ftox.2024.1469995/fullAs U.S. shivered through polar vortex, one state was unusually warm
It’s been warmer in Alaska than in three dozen other states
The average monthly temperature in Anchorage has been higher during January than in parts of three dozen states because of a record-breaking snowstorm and a wild weather pattern ... It has also been warmer in Alaska than Louisiana. On the morning of Jan. 22, New Iberia, Louisiana, with a fresh snow pack of about 8 inches, awakened to its lowest temperature in 132 years of recordkeeping: 2 degrees. New Iberia is just 30 miles north of the Gulf of Mexico. The temperature of 2 degrees in coastal Louisiana was lower than any temperature that Juneau, Alaska, over 2,500 miles to the northwest, had experienced all month ... Alaska is on the front lines of climate change. Warming temperatures, often at a rate faster than many other parts of the planet, are causing glaciers to melt, seas to heat up and patterns of rain and snow to change.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2025/01/29/unusual-warmth-alaska-january-colder-states/Meteorological institute KNMI worried about new reality with "erratic" climate
Erratic is the word the KNMI used to summarise the weather in 2024. It is also the direction in which the climate is increasingly moving. The Netherlands is already experiencing more extreme precipitation than it did a few decades ago. “A more erratic climate is our new reality,” wrote director Maarten van Aalst in the annual report The State of our Climate. The increasing weather extremes are a cause for concern for the institute’s scientists. “We must be prepared for extremes we have never seen before,” warned Van Aalst.
https://nltimes.nl/2025/01/30/meteorological-institute-knmi-worried-new-reality-erratic-climateSpanish fishers in Galicia report ‘catastrophic’ collapse in shellfish stocks
The key factor is climate change
Galicia is Europe’s principal source of shellfish and, after China, the world’s biggest producer of mussels, which are farmed in the estuaries. But figures published by a fishing website this month reveal an alarming decline in cockles and clams, which are collected by hand at low tide, as well as mussels, which are farmed on ropes strung from wooden rafts known as bateas. In 2023 the crop of cockles fell by 80% compared with the previous year, while some varieties of clams fell by 78%. Mussel production last year was the lowest in a quarter of a century ... The warmer waters also attract invasive species, notably the blue crab, native of the western Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico, which is a voracious consumer of local species such as spider crabs and velvet crabs ... the outlook is grim.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jan/28/spanish-fishers-in-galicia-report-catastrophic-collapse-in-shellfish-stocksOcean-surface warming four times faster now than late-1980s
This accelerating ocean warming is driven by the Earth's growing energy imbalance ... more energy from the Sun is being absorbed in the Earth system than is escaping back to space. This imbalance has roughly doubled since 2010, in part due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, and because the Earth is now reflecting less sunlight to space than before ... it is plausible that the ocean temperature increase seen over the past 40 years will be exceeded in just the next 20 years. Because the surface oceans set the pace for global warming, this matters for the climate as a whole.
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1071518
reporting on a study at https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adaa8aRevisiting the Last Ice Area projections from a high-resolution Global Earth System Model
Projections of the Last Ice Area [previously came] from relatively low resolution Global Climate Models that do not resolve sea ice export through the waterways of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Nares Strait. Here we revisit Last Ice Area projections using high-resolution numerical simulations from the Community Earth System Model, which resolves these narrow waterways. Under a high-end forcing scenario, the sea ice of the Last Ice Area thins and becomes more mobile, resulting in a large export southward. Under this potentially worst-case scenario, sea ice of the Last Ice Area could disappear a little more than one decade after the central Arctic Ocean has reached seasonally ice-free conditions.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02034-5What if the climate crisis makes disaster insurance unaffordable?
The insurance industry has rated the climate crisis [globally] as the biggest threat to its future four years in a row, a very concrete riposte to those politicians who continue to question the reality of global heating ... If nothing changes, the consequences – for the industry, for homeowners, for the broader financial system, and for where human beings can choose to live – will be profound ... the wildfires in Los Angeles are expected to be the most expensive such disaster in American history. Premiums have already rocketed in California in recent years, rising by 43% between January 2018 and December 2023; many companies have pulled out of the state altogether ... The consequences are only likely to worsen as the market adjusts to the new reality in the years ahead. But the wildfires are, of course, not an isolated catastrophe. “It is one of a pattern of recent events that is changing perceptions,” Eugenia Cacciatori said. “The future of disaster insurance is under threat all over” ... it may not make sense to create incentives for people to live in places that are becoming much more dangerous. Part of the problem is that humans just aren’t very good at weighing long-term risks against short-term benefits – a significant problem for the insurance system but also a fundamental feature of how the climate crisis has unfolded.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jan/27/monday-briefing-will-the-climate-crisis-kill-off-disaster-insuranceExtreme climate pushed thousands of lakes in West Greenland 'across a tipping point'
“The magnitude of this and the rate of change were unprecedented” After two months of record heat and precipitation in fall 2022, an estimated 7,500 lakes turned brown, began emitting carbon and decreased in water quality ... the combination of extreme climate events in fall 2022 caused ecological change that “pushed Arctic lakes across a tipping point,” they wrote in a paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). By July 2023, less than one year later, the physical, chemical and biological properties of these lakes were altered, a widespread transformation that typically occurs over hundreds of years ... Greenland normally experiences snow in the fall, but the spike in temperatures caused the precipitation to fall as rain instead, according to the study. The heat also caused permafrost — frozen soil that stores a significant amount of organic carbon — to thaw, releasing an abundance of carbon.
https://nioo.knaw.nl/en/news/extreme-climate-pushed-thousands-of-lakes-in-west-greenland-across-a-tipping-point
reporting on a study at https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2413855122How Did We Miss 20% of Greenland’s Ice Loss?
The Greenland Ice Sheet has lost more than 1,000 gigatons (Gt) of ice to calving since 1985—increasing previous estimates of mass loss by 20%. This revised number comes from a recent study of the territory’s glaciers over almost 4 decades. The research also revealed marine-terminating glaciers that responded more strongly to seasonal temperature changes also lost more mass over time ... The new estimate could mean Atlantic Ocean circulation is less stable than previously thought.
https://eos.org/articles/how-did-we-miss-20-of-greenlands-ice-loss
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06863-2After millennia as CO2 sink, more than one-third of Arctic-boreal region is now a source
After millennia as a carbon deep-freezer for the planet, regional hotspots and increasingly frequent wildfires in the northern latitudes have nearly canceled out that critical storage capacity in the permafrost region, according to a study published in Nature Climate Change ... An international team led by Woodwell Climate Research Center found that a third (34%) of the Arctic-boreal zone (ABZ)—the treeless tundra, boreal forests, and wetlands that make up Earth's northern latitudes—is now a source of carbon to the atmosphere. That balance sheet is made up of carbon dioxide (CO2) uptake from plant photosynthesis and CO2 released to the atmosphere through microbial and plant respiration. When emissions from fire were added, the percentage grew to 40%. The findings represent the most current and comprehensive assessment of carbon fluxes in the ABZ to date.
https://phys.org/news/2025-01-millennia-arctic-boreal-region-source.html
see also https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1070978
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02234-5Nobody’s insurance rates are safe from climate change
Even if you haven’t suffered direct damage, you’re paying for increasingly extreme weather. Asheville, North Carolina, was once widely considered a climate haven thanks to its elevated, inland location and cooler temperatures [but now] nowhere is safe from climate-worsened extreme weather risks: Hurricanes arriving from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic seaboard. Hail in the Midwest. Floods in the East. Sea level rise along the coasts. Wildfires in the West ... worsening extreme weather translates into more expensive property damages, growing insurance claims, and rising insurance rates [but] with insurance companies raising rates and dropping customers, the situation is quickly threatening to trigger an insurance crisis. Insurance generally operates by pooling risks ... When climate change increases the frequency and intensity of disasters, insurance companies will spread the costs across the customer pool in the form of higher rates. So even if you haven’t been directly harmed by extreme weather, you’re paying for some of the costs of those climate-worsened disasters.
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/01/nobodys-insurance-rates-are-safe-from-climate-change/High fertiliser use halves numbers of pollinators, world’s longest study finds
Increasing the amount of nitrogen, potassium and phosphorus doused on agricultural grassland reduced flower numbers fivefold and halved the number of pollinating insects, according to the paper by the University of Sussex and Rothamsted Research. Bees were most affected – there were over nine times more of them in chemical-free plots compared with those with the highest levels of fertiliser, according to the paper, published in the journal npj Biodiversity. The lead researcher, Sussex University’s Dr Nicholas Balfour, said: “As you increase fertilisers, pollinator numbers decrease – that’s the direct link that to our knowledge has never been shown before. It’s having a drastic effect on flowers and insects. The knock-on effect goes right up the food chain.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jan/20/uk-agriculture-farming-fertilisers-yields-biodiversity-study-park-grass-pollinators-bees-wildflowers-aoeNew Research Exposes “Astonishing” Glacier Loss in Global Warming Hotspot
A recent study has highlighted the dramatic shrinkage of glaciers in a global warming hotspot over the past 40 years, with the most significant losses occurring in recent years ... 91% of glaciers in Svalbard, a Norwegian Arctic archipelago, have experienced substantial retreat. Since 1985, the glaciers have collectively lost over 800 square kilometers of ice at their margins. The study also discovered that 62% of the glaciers display seasonal cycles of calving – when large chunks of ice break away due to higher ocean and air temperatures ... Lead author Dr. Tian Li said: “The scale of glacier retreats over the past few decades is astonishing, almost covering the entire Svalbard. This highlights the vulnerability of glaciers to climate change.”
https://scitechdaily.com/new-research-exposes-astonishing-glacier-loss-in-global-warming-hotspot
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-55948-1Australia is becoming an uninsurable nation. There may only be one solution
Trying to cap premium increases, or asking the public sector to step in, is not a workable solution. No rational business will take on that level of risk and government-run schemes will ultimately place enormous pressure on the budget and, ultimately, taxpayers ... where risks are too high, relocation may be the only option. Such a step comes with enormous economic and social costs ... We have built our homes in far too many vulnerable places ... ultimately, there are no magic bullets when it comes to insurance affordability in a world of rising climate risk and disaster ... if we fail to take strong action on climate now, that drama will only intensify.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jan/17/australia-is-becoming-an-uninsurable-nation-there-may-only-be-one-solutionGlacier Melt: A Water Crisis Brewing In Kashmir
The glaciers that fed [Kashmir's] rivers for centuries are retreating at alarming rates ... directly contributing to declining water levels in major rivers like the Jhelum [which] is witnessing one of its all-time lowest water levels this season, causing the shortage of drinking and irrigation water. Measurements at key points indicate a severe drop in water flow, unprecedented for this time of year. The Lidder Nallah and Rambiara Nallah are also facing critical lows.
https://kashmirobserver.net/2025/01/20/glacier-melt-a-water-crisis-brewing-in-kashmir/3M knew firefighting foams containing PFAS were toxic, documents show
Newly uncovered documents reveal chemicals giant was aware ‘environmentally neutral’ products did not biodegrade
The multibillion-dollar chemicals company 3M told customers its firefighting foams were harmless and biodegradable when it knew they contained toxic substances so persistent they are now known as “forever chemicals” and banned in many countries including the UK, newly uncovered documents show. From the 1960s until 2003, 3M made foams containing PFOS and PFOA (perfluorooctane sulfonate and perfluorooctanoic acid), synthetic chemicals that can take tens of thousands of years to degrade in the environment and have been linked to cancers and a range of other health problems such as thyroid disease, high cholesterol, hormonal problems and fertility issues.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jan/15/3m-firefighting-foams-pfas-forever-chemicals-documentsNew Record for Annual Increase in Keeling Curve Readings
In 2024, the yearly average level of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2) rose faster over the prior year than ever before in the 67-year-old Keeling Curve record ... the average was 3.58 parts per million (ppm) higher than for 2023’s average. That broke the record for largest jump set in 2016 of 3.41 ppm ... “These latest results further confirm that we are moving into uncharted territory faster than ever as the rise continues to accelerate,” said Keeling ... Met Office researchers noted that the rise is now incompatible with scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to assess limiting long-term average global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial times. “Limiting global warming to 1.5°C would require the CO2 rise to be slowing, but in reality the opposite is happening,” said Richard Betts, who leads the Met Office CO2 forecast team.
https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/2025/01/17/new-record-for-annual-increase-in-keeling-curve-readings/Research finds frozen ground in the Arctic is sinking at an increased rate
The study found that thaw subsidence - the sinking or settling of [permafrost] - is widespread and happening at accelerating rates, with serious implications including ecosystem, infrastructure and landscape disruptions. In addition, wildfires and human activities such as construction accelerate this process.
https://phys.org/news/2025-01-frozen-ground-arctic.html
reporting on a study at https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ada2ffPermafrost thaw beneath Arctic lakes poses surprise [greenhouse gas] threat
The frozen soil of the Arctic has already started to thaw, triggering the release of more methane and carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. This climate feedback is well known, but most modelling only accounts for thawing in the top 3 metres of Arctic soil. Deep sediment may also pose a grave threat, scientists have now discovered, with tests suggesting Arctic lakes could be triggering a thaw of permafrost at much deeper levels than expected ... they are increasing in number as the world warms. Water in thermokarst lakes transfers heat into the sediment below, accelerating the thaw of deep permafrost under the lakebed. Once thawed, microbial activity emerges in this ancient sediment, triggering the release of carbon dioxide and methane. Deeper sediments are the most carbon-rich, and so could constitute a large source of emissions.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2462580-permafrost-thaw-beneath-arctic-lakes-poses-surprise-pollution-threat/
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-024-01614-yEconomic growth could fall 50% over 20 years from climate shocks, say actuaries
By 2050, there could be more than 4 billion deaths
In a report with scientists at the University of Exeter, the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA), which uses statistics to analyse financial risk for businesses and governments, called for accelerated action by political leaders to tackle the climate crisis ... At 3C or more of heating by 2050, there could be more than 4 billion deaths, significant sociopolitical fragmentation worldwide, failure of states, and extinction events. Sandy Trust, the lead author of the report, said there was no realistic plan in place to avoid this scenario ... The climate risk assessments being used by financial institutions, politicians and civil servants were wrong, the report said, because they ignored the expected severe effects of climate change such as tipping points, sea temperature rises, migration and conflict as a result of global heating.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jan/16/economic-growth-could-fall-50-over-20-years-from-climate-shocks-say-actuaries
see also https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiehailstone/2025/01/27/global-gdp-faces-50-fall-without-climate-change-action-study-finds/U.S. Dementia Cases Are Poised to Rise to One Million Each Year by 2060, According to New Projections
Researchers found adults over the age of 55 have a 42 percent average risk of developing dementia within their lifetime, which is much higher than previously thought. “I knew the total lifetime risk would be higher than previous 20-year-old estimates,” says study senior author Josef Coresh, an epidemiologist at the NYU Grossman School of Medicine. “But I didn’t expect that it would land at 42 percent.” Alzheimer’s disease is the most prevalent form of dementia, accounting for 60 to 80 percent of dementia cases in the United States.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/us-dementia-cases-are-poised-to-rise-to-one-million-each-year-by-2060-according-to-new-projections-180985831/
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-024-03340-9Air pollution and brain damage: what the science says
Study after study has shown that higher levels of air pollution are correlated with increased risks of dementia, as well as higher rates of depression, anxiety and psychosis. Researchers have also found links to neurodevelopmental conditions, such as autism, and cognitive deficits in children. In 2020, the influential Lancet Commission on dementia recognized air pollution as a risk factor for the condition, and in its [2024] follow-up report it stated that exposure to airborne particulate matter “is now of intense concern and interest” ... WHO estimates that 99% of the world’s population is exposed to pollution above recommended levels, with many cities in low- and middle-income countries having particularly bad air quality. But it’s not just megacities, such as Mexico City and Delhi, where people face risks. “Even low-level exposure that people think is safe enough for public health is doing something at the brain level,” says Megan Herting, a neuroscientist at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles ... studies have also linked air pollution to structural changes in the brain that are consistent with heightened dementia risk ... Caleb Finch, who researches ageing at the University of Southern California, says that there is one shared facet: “It’s an inflammatory response,” he says. Studies from his lab and others show that the genes that mediate inflammatory responses are switched on; messengers associated with inflammation become more abundant; there are signs of oxidative stress; and microglial cells that sense damage and protect neurons are activated. Every major class of brain cell is affected ... pollutants might not need to get into the brain to cause damage. Contaminants in the blood could inflame the blood–brain barrier in ways that trigger inflammation throughout the brain. Alternatively, lung inflammation could release endogenous signalling molecules that, in turn, affect the barrier and the brain itself, says Paul Matthews, a clinical neuroscientist at the Rosalind Franklin Institute.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-00053-yMany species reach their heat limits at similar temperatures, leaving ecosystems at risk of sudden climate-driven collapse
Many species that live together appear to share remarkably similar thermal limits. This is deeply concerning as it suggests that, as ecosystems warm due to climate change, species will disappear from an ecosystem at the same time rather than gradually, resulting in sudden biodiversity loss. It also means that ecosystems may exhibit few symptoms of heat stress before a threshold of warming is passed and catastrophic losses occur. This will be felt most acutely in the tropics, where maximum tolerances are closest to the temperatures already experienced by its inhabitants.
https://theconversation.com/many-species-reach-their-heat-limits-at-similar-temperatures-leaving-ecosystems-at-risk-of-sudden-climate-driven-collapse-new-study-247014
reporting on a study at https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rstb.2023.0321‘We are crying for rain’: Suriname’s villages go hungry as drought bites
“It’s so dry that you can just walk across the river in some places.”
The drought in Suriname began in early 2023, with severe conditions reported by February last year; wildfires spread, posing a major health risk. By August, the drought had extensively depleted natural water sources, forcing communities to rely on contaminated river water. This has led to the spread of waterborne illnesses. Clinics report shortages of medical supplies and staff, as well as problems with basic sanitation, further aggravating the crisis. Erratic weather and consecutive crop failures have heightened food insecurity.
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/jan/14/crying-for-rain-suriname-drought-environment-climate-rivers-drying-hunger-clean-water-transport-healthNobel prize winners call for urgent ‘moonshot’ effort to avert global hunger catastrophe
More than 150 Nobel and World Food prize laureates have signed an open letter calling for “moonshot” efforts to ramp up food production before an impending world hunger catastrophe ... The plea was for financial and political backing, said agricultural scientist Geoffrey Hawtin, the British co-recipient of last year’s World Food prize ... Hawtin pointed to already stagnating and even declining production in rice and wheat around the world, at a time when food production needed to be ramping up ... Factors undermining productivity include soil erosion, land degradation, biodiversity loss, water shortages, conflict and government policies that hold back agricultural innovation. “The impacts of climate change are already reducing food production around the world, particularly in Africa, which bears little historical responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions yet sees temperatures rising faster than elsewhere,” said Adesina, who received the World Food prize in 2017.
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/jan/14/nobel-world-food-prize-laureates-global-hunger-open-letter-food-productionCancer is the unseen danger in the Los Angeles fires
When urban areas burn they are often toxic
Cancer is the No. 1 cause of death among firefighters. Now, crews battling the Los Angeles blazes are again inhaling cancer-causing chemicals without proper respiratory protection. It underscores how communities are unprepared for the changing nature of wildfire. As global warming parches vegetation and primes the landscape for ignition, intensifying fires are increasingly storming into urban areas where they can release more harmful chemicals.
https://www.eenews.net/articles/cancer-is-the-unseen-danger-in-the-los-angeles-firesLarge emissions of CO2 and CH4 due to active-layer warming in Arctic tundra
A shoulder-season warming experiment revealed that rapid snow melt, which is becoming a more common event, can result in large methane emissions that may have otherwise been oxidized to carbon dioxide. Thus, warming promotes greenhouse gas emissions from the whole, deepening active layer and may contribute to climate change amplification.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-54990-9Toxic ‘Forever Chemicals’ Are Everywhere—And a New Study Has Linked Them to Cell Death in Our Nervous System
Researchers at The State University of New York at Buffalo recently discovered that when 11 genes that play a significant role in regulating neuron health were exposed to six particular Per- and polyfluorinated alkyl substances (PFAS) compounds, the forever chemicals altered the genes’ natural activity. [PFOA] hit genes the hardest, in a way that diminished the growth of synapses, the region where nerve signals are transmitted and received. It also reduced the survival of neurons, according to the study, published in the December 18 issue of ACS Chemical Neuroscience ... these PFAS chemicals partially disabled the gene. At the same time, they caused another gene linked to neuronal cell death to express more, effectively contributing to cell death. Aside from the genes in which researchers saw alterations due to PFAS exposure, the study showed that forever chemicals alter more than 700 other neuronal genes ... the team concluded that the changes in gene expression likely depend upon the particular molecular structure of each type of PFAS the gene comes into contact with. Every PFAS compound has a different shape and size. That’s why this study barely scratches the surface of understanding the extent of how PFAS affects genes, and further research is needed, lead coauthor G. Ekin Atilla-Gokcumen, Ph.D., says in a university press release.
https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/health/a63409869/brain-and-forever-chemicals
reporting on a study at https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acschemneuro.4c00652Cost to clean up toxic PFAS pollution could top £1.6tn in UK and Europe
Almost indestructible without human intervention and persistent in living organisms, PFAS have been linked to infertility, cancers, immune and hormone disruption, and other illnesses. PFAS are ubiquitous and have been detected in drinking water and surface waters across the UK, which makes the task of remediation huge and complex ... These costs are conservative, as they only include decontamination costs, not socioeconomic costs or potential costs to the health system. It also assumes that PFAS emissions stop immediately. “The ‘legacy’ cost scenario we developed represents the minimum costs needed to manage environmental health risks from past actions related to PFAS that are currently regulated,” said Ali Ling of the St Thomas School of Engineering. The UK Environment Agency has identified up to 10,000 high-risk sites in the UK that are contaminated with PFAS. It is reeling at the potential costs involved in simply investigating four problem sites, before even considering cleanup costs, and has told Defra that the associated bill is “frightening.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jan/14/cost-clean-up-toxic-pfas-pollution-forever-chemicalsWhy wildfire "season" may no longer be a thing
Climate change has made wildfires [worldwide] more intense and more frequent
“We now have a year-round fire season,” FEMA administrator Deanne Criswell said on ABC News. California Gov. Gavin Newsom also recently made a similar comment ... And it’s not just California experiencing out-of-season wildfires. Researchers from the World Resources Institute calculated in 2023 that forest fires are burning nearly twice as much tree coverage as they were 20 years ago. In other words, they are getting worse around the world and there are more of them happening ... “We need to be prepared for year-round wildfire risk,” Shields said.
https://www.salon.com/2025/01/15/why-wildfire-season-may-no-longer-be-a-thing/
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-024-00624-zHome Losses From the LA Fires Hasten ‘An Uninsurable Future’
Insurers dropped nearly 70% of policyholders in Pacific Palisades in July 2024 [and] many homeowners were forced to obtain coverage from the state’s insurer of last resort, the California FAIR Plan ... Like many other insurers of last resort in the 33 other states with this type of system, the California FAIR Plan is buckling under the weight of natural disasters worsened by climate change. “I’m concerned that we’re one bad fire season away from complete insolvency,” said Jim Wood, then a California Assemblyman, at a March hearing in which CA Fair Plan President Victoria Roach explained that it had just $200 million of cash on hand, with $450 billion of exposure in the state ... In 2023, insurers lost money on homeowner coverage in 18 states, up from 12 states five years ago ... “In the long term, we’re not doing enough to deal with the underlying driver, which is fossil fuels and greenhouse gas emissions, so we’re going to continue to see insurance unavailability throughout the U.S.,” says Jones. “We are marching steadily towards an uninsurable future in this country.” As [private] insurers drop policyholders, homeowners turn to insurers of last resort which can’t really afford to insure them either. Yet more states are creating these plans to bolster private property insurance markets ... If [the California FAIR Plan] doesn’t have enough money to cover its claims, every policyholder in the state [must] pay to reimburse people whose homes lie in high-risk areas ... The way FAIR Plans work “is really a symptom of the broader insurance market failing,” says David Marlett, managing director of the Brantley Risk and Insurance Center at Appalachian State University ... What won’t work, experts say, is continuing with the same system and hoping that climate risk just goes away.
https://time.com/7205849/los-angeles-fires-insurance/2024 Is Officially the Hottest Year on Record
"All of the internationally produced global temperature datasets show that 2024 was the hottest year since records began in 1850,” said Carlo Buontempo, director of the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), in a news release. Last year, which C3S measured at 1.6 degrees C (2.9 degrees F) above preindustrial temperatures, surpassed the record that was just set in 2023. That year had set the record by a wide margin in global temperature terms, registering 0.17 degree C (0.31 degree F) above the previous record holder, 2016, according to C3S. All of the 10 hottest years on record occurred in the past decade, according to C3S data ... the overwhelming majority of the current temperature rise from preindustrial times has been caused by the excess heat trapped by ever rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Last October the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirmed that globally averaged levels of carbon dioxide (the primary greenhouse gas) had reached a record high of 420 parts per million (ppm) in 2023. CO2 levels in the preindustrial period were around 280 ppm.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/2024-is-officially-the-hottest-year-on-recordEconomic loss from L.A. wildfires could top $50 billion, making it one of the costliest U.S. natural disasters
The destruction caused by the Los Angeles-area wildfires, possibly the worst ever in California, is almost certain to rank as one of the most costly natural disasters in U.S. history ... One preliminary estimate calculated by AccuWeather put the damage and total economic loss at $52 billion to $57 billion — a sum that could rise if the fires continue to spread. Late Thursday, AccuWeather said the loss could be as much as three times its earlier estimate. J.P. Morgan on Thursday doubled its expectations of economic losses from a day earlier, saying they would be closer to $50 billion.
https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2025-01-09/loss-from-wildfires-could-surpass-50-billion5 Reasons Why The Los Angeles Wildfires Are The Start Of A New Normal
Extreme fire weather conditions are becoming more frequent, with dangerous implications for lives, property, and the environment. Here are five reasons why the Los Angeles county fires represent a disturbing new normal--
• 1. Increased Elevated Fire Weather Conditions: Historically, fire-prone periods in the region were seasonal, peaking in late summer and early fall. Now, extreme fire weather has extended far beyond its usual window, creating a year-round threat.
• 2. Overlap of Dry Conditions and Wind Events: Typically, the region would see rainfall in the fall and early winter, dampening the risk of fire during the windy season. However, this year, dry conditions have continued into January [which] creates a dangerous synergy.
• 3. Hot Summers Followed by Absent Rainy Seasons: Southern California endured an exceptionally hot summer, but unlike past years, it was not followed by the typical fall and early winter rains [which] left the landscape parched and ready to burn.
• 4. Extreme Fire Weather Is Becoming More Common Nationwide: Even areas that historically saw little wildfire activity are now at greater risk due to changing climate patterns.
• 5. The Most Devastating Wildfires in U.S. History Have Been Linked to Extreme Fire Weather: It’s the presence of extreme fire weather that determines how rapidly and destructively a fire spreads.
These fires are a stark reminder that extreme fire weather is a growing threat not just in California, but across the country. The risks we face today are not the same as those from five, ten, or thirty years ago. Even if a region has not experienced major wildfires in the past does not mean it is safe from future threats. The LA fires are not just an isolated event—they are a warning of what’s to come.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/phildeluna/2025/01/08/5-reasons-why-the-los-angeles-wildfires-are-the-start-of-a-new-normalState Farm sought huge number of Pacific Palisades nonrenewals months before fire
Nearly 70% of State Farm property policy holders in Pacific Palisades learned last summer that they would lose their home insurance, months before the devastating Palisades Fire hit. Filings with the Department of Insurance in the spring showed that the state’s largest home insurance provider was set to non-renew over 1,600 policies in Pacific Palisades. By share of homeowners, it made the affluent neighborhood the hardest hit by a spate of State Farm nonrenewals, which in total affected 30,000 home insurance policies and 42,000 commercial apartment policies across California.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/california/article/zip-code-hit-hardest-state-farm-home-nonrenewal-19393629.phpWhy giant insurance losses from L.A. fires could impact entire state
It’s the type of perfect storm situation that experts have worried about: massive fires burning through expensive homes, many of which are insured through the California FAIR Plan, the state insurer of last resort ... insured losses could be as high as
$20 billion$50 billion [which] would make this the most costly firestorm in U.S. history [with] massive losses that insurers face ... possible that more companies would instead choose to leave the state ... An overarching worry is the stability of the FAIR Plan. Los Angeles County has a large concentration of policies with the FAIR Plan as traditional insurers have dropped policyholders due to the high risk. The plan has an estimated $24.5 billion in exposure across 15,300 residential and commercial policies in the ZIP codes impacted by the Southern California wildfires [but] the plan had only about $385 million in reserves to pay for claims ... Under state law, if the FAIR Plan were to be overwhelmed, it would be able to charge regular insurers operating in the state [though see above, "more companies would instead choose to leave the state"] ... “We have been acting as if something like the current or the past approach to homeowners insurance was a sustainable strategy,” Wara said. “That assumption may no longer be true ... insurance is fundamental to home ownership. This is no longer an insurance problem; this is a homeownership problem.”
https://www.sfchronicle.com/california-wildfires/article/home-insurance-disaster-prices-20022809.phpClimate crisis ‘wreaking havoc’ on Earth’s water cycle, report finds
Water disasters in 2024, which was the hottest year on record, killed at least 8,700 people, driven 40 million from their homes and caused economic damage of more than $550bn (£445bn). Rising temperatures, caused by continued burning of fossil fuels, disrupt the water cycle in multiple ways. Warmer air can hold more water vapour, leading to more intense downpours. Warmer seas provide more energy to hurricanes and typhoons, supercharging their destructive power. Global heating can also increase drought by causing more evaporation from soil, as well as shifting rainfall patterns. Droughts also caused major damage, with crop production in southern Africa halving, causing more than 30 million people to face food shortages. Farmers were also forced to cull livestock as their pastures dried up, and falling output from hydropower dams led to widespread blackouts ... 2024 was a year of extremes but that was not an isolated occurrence. “It is part of a worsening trend of more intense floods, prolonged droughts, and record-breaking extremes.” The report warned of even greater dangers in 2025 as carbon emissions continued to rise.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jan/06/climate-crisis-wreaking-havoc-on-earths-water-cycle-report-finds
reporting on a study at https://www.globalwater.online/globalwater/report/Last year was China’s hottest on record, weather agency says
China's average national temperature for 2024 was 1.03 degrees higher than average, making it "the warmest year since the start of full records in 1961", China Meteorological Administration said Wednesday night. The world's largest greenhouse gas emitter, China also experienced devastating floods last year ... The 2015 Paris climate accords aimed to limit global warming to well below two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels -- and to 1.5C if possible. In November, the World Meteorological Organization said the January-September mean surface air temperature was 1.54C above the pre-industrial average measured between 1850 and 1900.
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250102-2024-was-china-s-hottest-year-on-record-weather-agencyHigh Arctic lakes reveal accelerating ecological shifts linked to twenty-first century warming
The Arctic is among the most rapidly warming regions on Earth [and] high Arctic lakes are highly sensitive to rising temperatures ... analysis [showed] a notable acceleration since the turn of the twenty-first century that eclipses shifts previously observed since the mid-nineteenth century [suggesting] the accelerating changes we observed are likely to continue, as rising temperatures and lengthening ice-free seasons push Arctic lakes across further ecological thresholds.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-82666-3Fig and almond trees thriving in UK thanks to fewer frosts, RHS says
The lack of frost, one of the effects of climate breakdown, means plants used to warmer climes have been doing well in [Royal Horticultural Society] gardens. Almond trees from the Mediterranean were planted at Wisley in Surrey several years ago, and without frost this year have fruited well for the first time ... the team has planted fig trees outside for the first time. They have also planted cacti [and] RHS’s four gardens are starting to retire plants that are no longer suited to the UK’s changing climate ... Climate breakdown in the UK is bringing more extreme and unpredictable weather, so it is not just a matter of planting drought-resistant plants that do better with fewer frosts – the RHS has to use a variety of plants that can be hardy in all weathers ... There was some record-breaking rainfall and flooding in 2024, so the gardeners have been adapting the planted areas to avoid them becoming waterlogged.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jan/02/fig-almond-trees-thriving-uk-thanks-to-fewer-frosts-rhsWorld endures 'decade of deadly heat' as 2024 caps hottest years on record
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said the past year was set to be the warmest on record, capping a decade of unprecedented heat fuelled by human activities and driving increasing weather extremes, while greenhouse gas levels continued to reach new highs, locking in more heat for the future ... The WMO secretary general, Celeste Saulo, said “This year we saw record-breaking rainfall and flooding events and terrible loss of life in so many countries, causing heartbreak to communities on every continent. Tropical cyclones caused a terrible human and economic toll ... Intense heat scorched dozens of countries, with temperatures topping 50C on a number of occasions. Wildfires wreaked devastation.” The WMO pointed to a new report that found climate change intensified 26 of the 29 extreme weather events studied by World Weather Attribution (WWA) in 2024.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/30/world-endures-decade-of-deadly-heat-as-2024-caps-hottest-years-on-record-un-antonio-guterresOcean acidification is a deeper crisis than we first thought
Once thought to be the concerns of surface level layers of the ocean [now] there is a clear indication of acidification down to depths as far as 1,000 metres below the surface across most of the ocean. This went deeper still in some areas, such as the North Atlantic – where the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current (AMOC) routinely carries carbon from the surface to deeper waters – where acidification has reached depths of 1,500 metres beneath the surface ... the most severe worsening of ocean acidification has taken place over the course of the last two decades. “Relative to the change that had occurred until 1994, the acidification progressed by around 50% between 1994 and 2014. This is primarily due to the near exponential growth of atmospheric carbon dioxide, pushing an exponentially growing amount of carbon into the ocean, when then leads to an exponential growth of the accumulated carbon at depth” ... “As our oceans acidify, fisheries are projected to see declines in key species, threatening food security for millions of people globally,” said Professor Widdicombe. “Coastal economies that depend on marine biodiversity will suffer significant losses. These aren’t hypothetical scenarios.”
https://oceanographicmagazine.com/news/ocean-acidification-is-a-deeper-crisis-than-we-first-thought/
reporting on a study at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.ado3103Rising temperatures in the Netherlands pose growing health risks
The Dutch public health system is experiencing significant effects from climate change, with rising temperatures, increased UV radiation, and the spread of infectious diseases already taking a measurable toll, according to a report published Monday by the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM). "Climate change is already worsening health outcomes in the Netherlands," the report states. "This is evident across multiple health areas, including mortality, respiratory illnesses, infectious diseases, and mental health." The report examines the health impacts of climate change between 1991 and 2020. It identifies extreme heat, worsening air quality, prolonged allergy seasons, and the increased spread of diseases as key risks for Dutch residents. The findings, based on 30 years of data, indicate that these trends are likely to intensify in the coming years.
https://nltimes.nl/2024/12/23/rising-temperatures-netherlands-pose-growing-health-risks
reporting on a study at https://www.rivm.nl/publicaties/health-effects-of-climate-change-update-of-current-risks-of-climate-change-for-healthIPBES report sees climate, nature and food challenges interlinked
Major report joins dots between world's nature challenges Climate change, nature loss and food insecurity are all inextricably linked and dealing with them as separate issues won't work, a major report has warned. The review of scientific evidence by the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) found governments are underestimating or ignoring the links between five key areas - biodiversity, water, food, health and climate change. This "siloed" approach has unintended consequences, such as damaging biodiversity through tree-planting schemes, or polluting rivers while ramping up food production, the report said. Understanding the interdependencies between the different areas is "critical" in addressing the crises affecting the natural world, said the report's co-chair, Paula Harrison, professor of land and water modelling at the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyxkz41knzo2023, 2024 climate change records defy scientific explanation
Among the potential factors driving this year's — as well as 2023's — record warmth is the unsettling possibility that global warming is accelerating ... If so, the climate scenarios that form the basis for countries' decarbonization goals could be faulty, with higher warming levels and greater societal consequences likely to arrive sooner than expected. [Copernicus says] 2024 may end up close to 1.6°C (2.88°F) above the pre-industrial average [and] NOAA found that so far this year, six continents have had their warmest temperatures on record for the year so far, while [#7] Asia has ranked second-warmest ... the ratio of warm temperature records to cold temperature records set globally during the month was about 50-to-1 [which is] an increasingly common occurrence in recent years, but largely unheard of prior to about 2010 ... While there's virtually zero uncertainty that 2024 will be the hottest on record, plenty of unnerving debate exists regarding how and why this happened — and what it means for the near future.
https://www.axios.com/2024/12/16/climate-change-records-surprise-scientistsEU bans harmful chemical [BPA] from materials in contact with food
The European Commission has banned the use of bisphenol A, a chemical harmful to human health [following] a 2023 opinion by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), which concluded that dietary exposure to BPA presents a health concern for consumers across all age groups. As a result of the study, EFSA significantly lowered the tolerable daily intake - the amount that can be safely consumed daily over a lifetime - to around 20,000 times lower than the previous limit set in 2015. Bisphenol A is classified as a hazardous chemical by the European Chemical Agency (ECHA) as it can cause serious eye damage, allergic skin reactions, and respiratory irritation. Due to its properties as an endocrine disruptor, it can also cause hormonal alterations, damaging fertility and the reproductive system. Exposure to endocrine-disrupting chemicals can be dangerous even at very low doses and have effects later in life. They have been widely studied in recent years, as analysis suggest that they may be responsible for declining sperm counts, increased numbers of male children born with genital malformations, and rising cases of certain types of cancer.
https://www.euronews.com/health/2024/12/20/eu-bans-harmful-chemical-from-materials-in-contact-with-food2024 was hot—but it might be the coldest year of the rest of your life
With the year almost over, scientists are once again sounding the alarm about an ominous climate milestone: 2024 is virtually certain to be the hottest year on record. According to several leading authorities, it will also be the first [full calendar] year the planet surpasses the 1.5 degrees Celsius global warming target set forth in the Paris Climate Accord. But years from now, you’re unlikely to remember 2024 as an especially hot year, because it will also be one of the coolest years of the rest of your life. As humanity keeps burning fossil fuels and heating up the Earth, your future self will look back on the present as a time of calmer weather, snowier winters, and milder temperatures ... A year ago, climate scientists were talking about a dramatic new temperature record. 2023 was not only the warmest year in nearly 175 years of bookkeeping, but it was also roughly 0.15 degrees Celsius warmer than 2016, the previous hottest year on record. In planetary terms, this is considered a major jump. 2024 is all but guaranteed to be hotter ... “The last two years have been kind of supercharged,” says Gavin Schmidt, the director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies ... “2023 and ‘24 really stand out” [and] Schmidt says it could also indicate an acceleration of human-driven global warming stemming from the fact that “we keep putting our foot on the accelerator of greenhouse gases.”
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/shifting-baseline-syndrome-climate-change
reporting on a study at https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/fee.1794Global warming is speeding up. Another reason to think about geoengineering
Reducing sulphur emissions saves lives. But it could also be hastening planetary warming
The rate at which the planet is warming, until the 2010s around 0.18°C a decade, now appears to be well over 0.2°C a decade. In the decade to 2023 it was 0.26°C. One reason for this dimming is air pollution—or, rather, its absence. Preventing sulphur emissions from getting into lungs improves people’s health [but] reducing sulphur emissions also lowers albedo. Sulphate particles scatter light. As a result, some of it bounces back into space. Sulphate particles can also serve as seeds for the water droplets that make up clouds. Fewer such seeds can make clouds less bright; sometimes clouds do not form at all ... atmospheric scientists have long expected more warming when this offset is removed. As one of the greatest of them, Paul Crutzen, wrote in 2006: “Air-pollution regulations, in combination with continued growing emissions of CO2, may bring the world closer than is realised to the danger [of catastrophic global warming]” ... Crutzen wanted swift cuts in greenhouse-gas emissions to render debates about geoengineering moot; he also feared that this was just “a pious wish”. The world’s capacity to do without fossil fuels has increased a lot since then. But emissions have yet to decline, and warming is speeding up.
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/12/19/global-warming-is-speeding-up-another-reason-to-think-about-geoengineeringAtlantic circulation collapse? New clues on the fate of a crucial conveyor belt
The AMOC is a vast oceanic loop that carries warm water northward through the uppermost Atlantic toward Iceland and Greenland, where it cools and descends before returning southward. It ferries colossal amounts of heat from the tropics toward the polar region, helping balance Earth’s climate ... when the AMOC’s flow is greatly reduced [land around] the subpolar North Atlantic get sharply colder ... the AMOC has already slowed by a few percent since the mid-20th century [and] has collapsed to a near-halt multiple times over the past 2 million years ... Not only does the Gulf Stream’s warmth keep northern Europe far milder than other locations at such high latitudes, but the flow itself serves as a type of protective seawall for North America’s Atlantic coast [so] sea level can be several feet lower toward the U.S. East Coast ... Meltwater pouring from the Arctic into the far North Atlantic in massive amounts seems to be capable of triggering AMOC collapse [that] would destabilize our planet’s climate and complicate life for many millions if not billions of people ... [But] we have at least some reassurance from the North Atlantic data that a full-on AMOC collapse hasn’t begun. And it’s unlikely that any future collapse would reach its end point any sooner than the early to mid-2100s. [But] a tipping point toward eventual collapse could arrive as soon as the next several decades, especially if fossil-fuel emissions aren’t cut sharply.
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/12/atlantic-circulation-collapse-new-clues-on-the-fate-of-a-crucial-conveyor-belt/Rapid declines in Antarctic sea ice whip up more storms
Ice reductions [to] 50 to 80% below the 1991 to 2020 winter average
Resulting from the rapidly depleting winter sea ice cover in the Antarctic – which reached a record low in 2023, according to researchers at the UK’s National Oceanographic Centre (NOC) – scientists have warned of the likelihood of continued storms, as well as a potentially ‘vast’ impact on ocean circulation. The NOC suggests that ‘record-breaking sea-ice declines’ could pose an irreversible threat to vital ocean currents including the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) which runs a risk of collapse ... ocean heat loss to the atmosphere at some locations has more than doubled while an increase in frequency of storms has been observed around much of the high latitude Southern Ocean by up to seven days a month ... Rachel Diamond who was involved in the research [said] “According to the models, the record-breaking minimum sea ice extent would be a one-in-2000-year event without climate change. This tells us that the event was very extreme – anything less than one-in-100 is considered exceptionally unlikely” ... Previous analysis of the long-term impacts of declining Antarctic sea ice by co-author Dr Holly Ayres shows that enhanced ocean heat loss can also affect the climate as far away as the Tropics and the Northern Hemisphere.
https://oceanographicmagazine.com/news/antarctic-sea-ice-decline-generates-more-storms
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08368-yAntarctica is in crisis and we are scrambling to understand its future
If all our fear and uncertainty over climate change could be distilled into a single statistic, then arguably it was delivered to an emergency summit on the future of the Antarctic last month. Nerilie Abram at the Australian National University, Canberra, opened her presentation with a slide headlined “Antarctic sea ice has declined precipitously since 2014, and in July 2023 exceeded a minus 7 sigma event”. A minus 7 sigma event, meaning seven standard deviations below the average, should be all but impossible, says Ed Doddridge at the Australian Antarctic Program Partnership, who works with Abram. It is “actually really hard to convey just how extreme this difference was, how extreme the low sea ice extent was”, he says. One way is to liken it to the concept of a one-in-100-year flood, for example. “If you run those sorts of statistics for Antarctic sea ice last year, you get a number somewhere between one in 7.5 million years and one in 700 billion years,” says Doddridge [and] sums up the situation with one very simple, very unscientific word. “Grim.”
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2458211-antarctica-is-in-crisis-and-we-are-scrambling-to-understand-its-future/Today’s Glacial Retreat is a Recent Phenomenon
“2023 was the first year that every reference glacier in the world lost mass. We couldn’t find a single glacier in the network that was gaining mass.” Furthermore, the loss of ice among the reference glaciers is accelerating, just as it is at Easton Glacier. “It doesn’t matter if you’re in New Zealand or Tibet, or in the North Cascades; glaciers are melting at close to the same rate, all over the place. I’ve worked on 250 glaciers around the world, and 25 of them are gone now.” Pelto continued, sounding resolute, “The glaciers are telling us—they’re struggling with the temperatures they’re experiencing, and they’re disappearing.”
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/153482/todays-glacial-retreat-is-a-recent-phenomenonMountain permafrost is warming across Europe, study shows
Mountain permafrost is getting warmer throughout Europe. In the last 10 years, the temperature at a depth of 10 meters has increased by more than 1°C at some locations. "The warming of permafrost in the mountains is significant," says Nötzli, "and it is observed in all regions, depths and time periods that we have looked at" ... When temperatures in the ice-rich permafrost rise toward 0°C, the warming slows down significantly and almost comes to a halt because the energy is needed to melt the [icy] ground. Once the ice in the permafrost has melted, temperatures rise again ... The researchers say the warming of the permafrost continues. "This can also be seen from the fact that the warming at a depth of 10 meters is stronger than deeper in the ground."
https://phys.org/news/2024-12-mountain-permafrost-europe.html
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-54831-9Climate takes its toll on the ‘cherry capital of the world’
The erratic weather adding to the troubles of Michigan's cherry growers is impacting farmers everywhere As much as 75 percent of the state’s sweet cherry crop was lost ... Similar struggles are playing out on farms nationwide, with some regions, like the Midwest, facing the onset of an agricultural recession, said Ernie Goss, an economist at Creighton University ... The latest federal forecast predicts farm income will decrease 4 percent over last year in what some deem the sector’s worst financial year since 2007. That’s a key reason consumers are paying more at the supermarket ... Yet [there's been no] discussion of the human-caused climate change shaping that terrain ... “Farmers are often at the front end of the climate challenge,” said Billy Hackett of the National Sustainable Agriculture Coalition. “You can’t stop that once-in-a-generation flood or fire or hurricane that’s becoming more and more frequent.”
https://grist.org/food-and-agriculture/climate-takes-its-toll-on-the-cherry-capital-of-the-worldStaggering temperature rise predicted for the Middle East and North Africa
The region, which already has record-breaking summer temperatures, is currently close to exceeding 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming on average compared to pre-industrial temperatures. Additional warming in the region could make some areas uninhabitable without adaption measures ... the Middle East and North Africa could reach 3 and 4 degrees Celsius of warming (5.4 and 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) nearly three decades earlier than most of the globe [and] by 7.6 degrees Celsius (13.7 degrees Fahrenheit) under high emission scenarios. [Note: study also includes lower-emission projections but currently these seem unrealistic.]
https://news.agu.org/press-release/middle-east-north-africa-warming
reporting on a study at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024JD041625Earth’s clouds are shrinking, boosting global warming
Narrowing storm bands may be a surprising and dangerous new feedback of climate change
The loss of reflective ice, exposing darker ground and water that absorb more heat, isn’t enough to explain the deficit, and the decline in light-reflecting hazes as countries clean up or close polluting industry falls short as well. “Nobody can get a number that’s even close,” says George Tselioudis, a climate scientist at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. But Tselioudis and his colleagues now think they can explain the growing gap with evidence collected by a remarkably long-lived satellite. They find that the world’s reflective cloud cover has shrunk in the past 2 decades by a small but tangible degree, allowing more light in and boosting global warming. “I’m confident it’s a missing piece. It’s the missing piece,” says Tselioudis, who presented the work last week at a meeting of the American Geophysical Union.
https://www.science.org/content/article/earth-s-clouds-are-shrinking-boosting-global-warmingA bitter cup of coffee? Assessing the impact of climate change on Arabica coffee production in Brazil
Brazil, the world's largest producer and exporter of Arabica coffee, faces increasing challenges from climate changes ... significant impacts on coffee cultivation areas, mainly due to rising temperatures and increased water deficits. Projections also suggest changes in coffee phenology, with anthesis advancing in colder regions and delaying in warmer areas, while maturation timing occurring earlier in all climates ... higher temperatures and water deficits could cause severe yield losses, especially in Aw climates and under high-emission scenarios, where losses may reach 100%.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0048969724077039‘Increasingly worried’: more than a quarter of a million waterbirds disappear from eastern Australia
One of the world’s longest continuous bird counts has dashed the ‘wistful optimism’ of scientists hoping for a recovery Drier conditions have led to waterbird numbers in eastern Australia plummeting by 50% compared with 2023, one of the country’s largest wildlife surveys has found ... The survey spotted 287,231 birds this year – half the 579,641 birds recorded in 2023 ... The survey, which tracks more than 70 species of waterbirds, covers a third of the Australian continent – an area measuring 2.7m square km, or 11 times the size of the UK. It comprehensively tracks the distribution and breeding of waterbirds as well as changes in the major rivers and wetlands of the Murray-Darling basin. Three of four major markers of waterbird health – overall numbers, numbers of species breeding and wetland area – were down, continuing a trend of significant long-term declines. The abundance of breeding birds fell to well below the long-term average and was one of the lowest on record ... The climate crisis is hastening the drying out of wetlands. This year’s total wetland area – 122,283 ha – was also well below the long-term average ... Waterbirds were most abundant in the temporary wetlands of the Georgina-Diamantina river system in north-western Queensland, the scientists found.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/dec/16/waterbird-populations-plunge-dramatically-as-eastern-australia-dries-upBogotá’s Water Rationing Is a Preview
Colombia has been running low on precipitation since June 2023. In the spring of this year, the mayor began rationing water ... as of April, when the rationing began, the reservoir was at less than 20 percent capacity. Natasha Avendaño, the general manager of El Acueducto de Bogotá, the organization responsible for the city’s water infrastructure, recently reported that this August was the driest month in the 55 years since the city started keeping track. Restrictions are unlikely to be lifted anytime soon ... The rolling rationing that moves across Bogotá—and the frustration that comes with the disruption ... generates, if not solidarity exactly, a feeling of mutual inconvenience ... It’s a decision taken by a central institution to ensure the health and well-being of the entire city. The places that one might turn to in times of crisis––schools and hospitals, for instance––have water no matter what, to help keep the most vulnerable residents safe, but otherwise everyone is compelled to sacrifice together ... Periodic resource rationing would prepare us for a future that is sure to contain more days without––without water, or electricity, or heat––than today. The only thing that is certain is that the things we depend upon are no longer dependable.
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2024/12/bogota-drought-water-rationing-routine/681023/Three-Quarters of the Earth Has Gotten Permanently Drier
According to a just-released report by the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), human-driven climate change is leading to a permanent state of increased dryness on 77.6% of the Earth’s land masses, a steady desiccation that has been playing out over the 30-year period from 1990 to 2020 ... And when the UNCCD says dry, they mean for keeps. “Unlike droughts—temporary periods of low rainfall—aridity represents a permanent, unrelenting transformation,” said UNCCD executive secretary Ibrahim Thiaw. “Droughts end. When an area's climate becomes drier, however, the ability to return to previous conditions is lost” ... More than 2.3 billion people live in the footprint of increased drying [and] the kinds of changes that aridification is causing—such as the spread of parched grasslands, and the loss of forests due to wildfires—will not be reversed for centuries, if at all.
https://time.com/7201214/three-quarters-of-the-earth-has-gotten-permanently-drier/
see also https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1066674
reporting on a study at hhttps://www.unccd.int/sites/default/files/2024-12/aridity_report.pdfGlobal food production at increased risk from excess salt in soil, UN report warns
Scientists say climate crisis and poor agricultural practices to blame with serious implications for crop yields The extent of the world’s land affected by excess salt is set to increase rapidly with potentially devastating impacts on food production, research has found. About 1.4bn hectares (3.4bn acres), amounting to 10% of global land, is affected by salinity, with a further 1bn hectares classed as “at risk”, a report from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization has found. Water scarcity, poor drainage, and overexploitation of the soil are key factors behind the increase in salinity. Rising global temperatures and increasing pressure on agriculture are leading to the drying out of land around the world. Along with increasing salinity and declining soil fertility, these factors are combining to create unprecedented threats to food production.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/dec/11/global-food-production-at-increased-risk-from-excess-salt-in-soil-un-report-warns
reporting on a study at https://doi.org/10.4060/cd3044enClimate change extinctions
This meta-analysis suggests that extinctions will accelerate rapidly if global temperatures exceed 1.5°C [which now seems inevitable, see next item]. The highest-emission scenario would threaten approximately one-third of species, globally. Amphibians; species from mountain, island, and freshwater ecosystems; and species inhabiting South America, Australia, and New Zealand face the greatest threats. In line with predictions, climate change has contributed to an increasing proportion of observed global extinctions since 1970.
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adp4461Is it clouds, shipping or a volcano? Scientists present potential reasons for record heat
Humans are causing the world to warm up by the burning of fossil fuels and last year was also influenced by an El Niño event, a naturally reoccurring climate phenomena that typically pushes up global temperatures. “But this was not normal,” said Rohde. “Global warming and El Niño are the biggest factors but something else was going on” ... The elevated heat has continued throughout much of 2024, with scientists still waiting to see if the unexpected warming will die down. This year is certain to be the hottest on record, the first that will be 1.5C above the pre-industrial era and a signal that the longer-term international effort to keep the temperature rise below this level is probably doomed.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/dec/12/record-heat-climate-crisis
see also https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/12/climate/three-questions-from-cutting-edge-climate-science.htmlClimate warming is reducing rice quality in East Asia, research reveals
Rice is a food staple for billions of people worldwide, with demand doubling over the past 50 years, and is predominantly grown in Asia before being exported globally. This crop is sensitive to weather conditions and, as such, understanding how yields are affected by climate change is of paramount importance to ensure sustainable food supplies into the future. Beyond yield, the quality of rice may also be affected, determined by a combination of appearance, palatability, nutritional profile and milling properties. Research published in Geophysical Research Letters, has highlighted a decline in rice quality in East Asia, coincident with changing temperatures.
https://phys.org/news/2024-11-climate-rice-quality-east-asia.html
reporting on a study at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024GL110557‘Forever chemical’ found in mineral water from several European countries
A metabolite of widely used pesticide flufenacet recognized as endocrine disruptor (Le Monde)
Mineral water from several European nations has been found for the first time to be contaminated with TFA, a type of PFAS “forever chemical” that is a reproductive toxicant accumulating at alarming levels ... as much as 32 times above the threshold that should trigger regulatory action in the European Union ... The finding comes as researchers try to get a handle on TFA pollution globally. Though they long ago established that PFAS pollution is ubiquitous, they have found TFA levels that are orders of magnitude higher than other forever chemicals. Aside from use in pesticides, TFA is a common refrigerant that was intended to be a safe replacement for older greenhouse gases like CFCs, and it is often used in clean energy production. But recent research has also established it as a potent greenhouse gas that can remain in the atmosphere for 1,000 years ... an especially difficult chemical due to its high mobility and longevity in the environment. Meanwhile, filtration technology effective at removing other PFAS from water cannot can’t address TFA on an industrial scale.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/dec/12/forever-chemical-europe-mineral-water
see also https://www.lemonde.fr/en/environment/article/2024/11/12/drinking-water-in-france-threatened-with-non-compliance-due-to-forever-chemical_6732547_114.html
reporting on a study at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GL087535The Arctic tundra has transformed from carbon sink to carbon source, report finds
“Arctic tundra, which is experiencing warming and increased wildfire, is now emitting more carbon than it stores, which will worsen climate change impacts,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad. “This is yet one more sign, predicted by scientists, of the consequences of inadequately reducing fossil fuel pollution.” The findings were published in the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 2024 Arctic Report Card. For the 11th year in a row, the report found that the Arctic is warming faster than the global average ... the Arctic tundra has shifted from storing carbon to being a source of carbon emissions to the atmosphere. Wildfires increase emissions in other ways too as insulating soil layers are stripped away by blazes accelerating permafrost thaw and the carbon emissions that come with it.
https://www.euronews.com/green/2024/12/11/the-arctic-tundra-has-transformed-from-carbon-sink-to-carbon-source-report-finds
see also https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/10/arctic-tundra-carbon-shiftSome of the world’s biggest cities are so polluted they’re warming slower
The researchers found that the large quantity of aerosol particles in the air of highly polluted cities reflect sunlight back out into space and, at least in the short term, can have a net cooling effect on populations ... the finding should hardly be taken as a good sign. For one, it’s likely only temporary. And secondly, the protection, such as it is, only comes from harmful pollutants ... “The poorer you are the hotter it gets, where heat is a metaphor for all forms of climate disruption,” Schwalm said ... Last year, the world blew past the emissions targets from 2015’s Paris Agreement, and is on track to do the same this year. Scientists are increasingly vocal about the so-called death of the Paris Agreement’s commitment to keep the world below a temperature increase of 1.5C [given] the inevitability of worsening heat waves and extreme weather events to come.
https://grist.org/climate-energy/some-cities-are-so-polluted-theyre-warming-slower
reporting on a study at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024GL110644How climate risks are driving up insurance premiums around the US – visualized
‘Tight correlation’ between premium rises and counties most at risk from climate crisis
A climate crisis is starting to stir an insurance crisis. “This has been the canary in the climate coalmine, and it’s now hitting households’ pocketbooks,” said Ben Keys, an economist at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School and co-author of the research. “You can deny climate change for whatever motivations you have but when insurance is going up because you live in a risky area, that’s hard to deny” ... As such damaging events pile up around the world, the insurance industry is looking at the climate crisis as a threat like no other. In October, the insurance giant Axa ranked climate change as the biggest risk facing the industry globally, above geopolitical instability and cyber and AI issues, for the third year in a row ... “Sooner or later we are going to have to have a serious meetings of minds about not building in certain places because it just won’t get insurance.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/dec/05/climate-crisis-insurance-premiums
reporting on a study at https://www.nber.org/papers/w32579Recent global temperature surge intensified by record-low planetary albedo
In 2023, the global mean temperature soared to almost 1.5C above the pre-industrial level, surpassing the previous record by about 0.17C. Previous best-guess estimates [fell] short by about 0.2C in explaining the temperature rise. Utilizing satellite and reanalysis data, we identify a record-low planetary albedo as the primary factor bridging this gap. The decline is apparently caused largely by a reduced low-cloud cover in the northern mid-latitudes and tropics, in continuation of a multi-annual trend.
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adq7280The Arctic Could Be Functionally Ice-Free in Just a Few Years
Could occur as early as 2027
Scientists raised the alarm in a study published Tuesday in the scientific journal Nature Communications. The research — which relies on climate models simulating trends in global temperatures and Arctic sea ice concentrations — warns the only way to avoid an ice-free day within the next few years is to cut emissions fast enough to stay consistent with the Paris Agreement’s most ambitious goal, capping global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius. Yet experts agree the world is all but certain to blow past that target [so] that day is on the horizon ... If the first ice-free day does occur within the next few years, it will probably be followed by several more. In these model simulations, the ice-free period lasts 11 to 53 days. That means it could end in less than two weeks, or it could drag on into the first ice-free month — another climate milestone.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-arctic-could-be-functionally-ice-free-in-just-a-few-years
see also https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/12/241203154440.htm
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-54508-3Accelerated Historical and Future Warming in the Middle East and North Africa
Middle East and North Africa are warming much faster than the global average
Since the pre-industrial era, the observed average climate in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has warmed by 1.5°C and is on the brink of exceeding 2°C. The reanalysis data suggest that the regional warming over some MENA sub-regions is three times faster than the global average. By the end of the 21st century, the Arabian Peninsula is projected to [warm] 7.6°C ± 1.53°C under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario. Distinct warming hotspots emerge over the Arabian Peninsula and Algeria in summer and over Mauritania in West Africa and the Elburz Mountains in Iran in winter. The summer hotspot over the Arabian Peninsula has already warmed by more than 2°C and can potentially warm to approximately 9°C under the high-emission scenario. As global warming progresses to 1.5, 2.0, 3.0, and 4.0°C, the average temperature over the MENA land is projected to increase by 2.3°C ± 0.18°C, 3.0°C ± 0.22°C, 4.6°C ± 0.26°C, and 6.1°C ± 0.31°C, respectively. The 1.5, 2.0, 3.0, and 4.0°C warming levels over the MENA are expected to predate those of the global mean by two or three decades.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD041625Japan witnesses warmest autumn on record
Japan has recorded its warmest autumn since records began 126 years ago, the weather agency said, delaying the country's popular displays of seasonal foliage into December. "This year was 1.97 degrees Celsius higher than usual ... making it the hottest autumn since 1898, when statistics began," the Japan Meteorological Agency said Monday on their website. Between September and November, the temperature was 2.4 degrees Celsius higher than usual in Tokyo, 2.9 more in the central city of Nagoya and 1.2 warmer in northern Sapporo city.
https://phys.org/news/2024-12-japan-witnesses-warmest-autumn.htmlUnexplained heat-wave 'hotspots' are popping up across the globe
Global emergence of regional heatwave hotspots outpaces climate model simulationsA striking new phenomenon is emerging: distinct regions are seeing repeated heat waves that are so extreme, they fall far beyond what any model of global warming can predict or explain. A new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences provides the first worldwide map of such regions, which show up on every continent except Antarctica like giant, angry skin blotches. In recent years these heat waves have killed tens of thousands of people, withered crops and forests, and sparked devastating wildfires. "The large and unexpected margins by which recent regional-scale extremes have broken earlier records have raised questions about the degree to which climate models can provide adequate estimates of relations between global mean temperature changes and regional climate risks," says the study ... "Due to their unprecedented nature, these heat waves are usually linked to very severe health impacts, and can be disastrous for agriculture, vegetation and infrastructure," said Kornhuber. "We're not built for them, and we might not be able to adapt fast enough."
https://phys.org/news/2024-11-unexplained-hotspots-globe.html
reporting on a study at https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2411258121South America is becoming warmer, drier, and more flammable
South America is experiencing severe impacts from climate change ... [increase in] droughts and weather conditions associated with enhanced fire risk [including] high fire risk conditions (i.e., dry compounds) since 1971 ... the northern Amazon [has] seen a 3-fold increase in the number of days per year with extreme fire weather conditions (including high temperatures, dryness, and low humidity).
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01654-7Land degradation expanding by 1m sq km a year, study shows
Land degradation is expanding worldwide at the rate of 1m (million) sq km every year, undermining efforts to stabilise the climate, protect nature and ensure sustainable food supplies, a study has highlighted. The degraded area is already 15m sq km, an area greater than Antarctica, the scientific report says, and it calls for an urgent course correction to avoid land abuse “irretrievably compromising Earth’s capacity to support human and environmental wellbeing” ... The synthesis study, Stepping Back from the Precipice, was produced at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), which analysed the land use issue in the context of the planetary boundaries framework. It noted that until recently land ecosystems absorbed nearly one-third of human-caused carbon dioxide pollution, even as those emissions increased by half. But over the last decade the capacity of trees and soil to absorb excess CO₂ has shrunk by 20% due to deforestation and climate change. The main culprit, according to the report, is unsustainable agricultural practices, which are responsible for 80% of forest loss. These techniques, which include heavy use of chemical inputs, pesticides and water diversion, also erode soil, diminish water supplies and contaminate ecosystems. In the short term, this intensive extraction can be more profitable, but it soon leads to lower crop yields and poorer nutrition quality of harvests. In a growing number of cases it results in desertification and dust bowls.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/dec/01/land-degradation-expanding-by-1m-sq-km-a-year-study-shows
reporting on a study at [PDF] https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/rest/items/item_30631_2/component/file_30742/contentAustralia sweats through hottest spring on record as temperatures soar 2.5C above pre-industrial levels
Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) confirms the nation just sizzled through its hottest spring on record. The country's mean temperature in spring was estimated at 2.08 degrees Celsius above the baseline 1961–1990 average, which equates to a temperature around 2.5C above pre-industrial levels ... This is only the second time the 2.5C barrier has been breached for an entire season, going back to 1910 when reliable national averages were first available. While spring 2024 was only 0.05C warmer than the old record of +2.03C from 2020, it was at least 1C warmer than any spring from last century — an indication of the climate acceleration during the past few decades. The record warmth was consistent through all months.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-12-02/australia-weather-hottest-spring-on-record-temperatures-soar/104673886Severe drought causing saltwater to creep up the Delaware River, a major drinking water source
Salty ocean water is creeping up the Delaware River, brought on by severe drought conditions and sea level rise ... the salt line is where saltwater from the ocean and freshwater meet in the river. The farther the line moves upstream, the closer it gets to drinking water intakes, which officials have worked for decades to avoid. The Delaware River provides drinking water for some 14 million people, including most of Philadelphia but also parts of New Jersey and New York ... Amy Shallcross, the water resource operations manager at the Delaware River Basin Commission [said] “It’s only 18 miles right now from the drinking water intakes. And sometimes it can shoot upstream really quickly.” A rainless start to fall brought on a drought in parts of the Northeast [which] has diminished the river’s flow and allowed the denser saltwater to creep upstream.
https://www.nj.com/news/2024/11/severe-drought-causing-saltwater-to-creep-up-the-delaware-river-a-major-drinking-water-source.htmlRich Countries Provide No Haven From Climate Doom, Study Finds
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-26/rich-countries-provide-no-haven-from-climate-doom-study-findsWorld will be ‘unable to cope’ with volume of plastic waste in 10 years, warns expert
Countries must curb production now and tackle plastic’s full life cycle
The world will be “unable to cope” with the sheer volume of plastic waste a decade from now unless countries agree to curbs on production, the co-chair of a coalition of key countries has warned ... various researchers found microplastics in every sample of placenta they tested; in human arteries, where plastics are linked to heart attacks and strokes; in human testes and semen, adding to evidence of the ubiquity of plastics and concern over health risks. The plastics crisis is widely recognised as a threat to human health, biodiversity and the climate.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/nov/24/world-unable-cope-10-years-talks-un-global-treaty-to-end-plastic-wasteEmissions Gap Report 2023: Broken Record
Stocktake during a year of broken records
The world is witnessing a disturbing acceleration in the number, speed and scale of broken climate records ... [in 2023] 86 days have been recorded with temperatures exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels this year. Not only was September the hottest month ever, it also exceeded the previous record by an unprecedented 0.5°C, with global average temperatures at 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels ... devastating extreme events, which IPCC has warned us are merely a meek beginning ... global GHG emissions and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) also set new records in 2022 ... failure to stringently reduce emissions in high-income and high-emitting countries.
https://www.unep.org/interactives/emissions-gap-report/2023/NASA Satellites Reveal Abrupt Drop in Global Freshwater Levels
Earth’s total amount of freshwater dropped abruptly starting in May 2014 and has remained low ever since. Reporting in Surveys in Geophysics, the researchers suggested the shift could indicate Earth's continents have entered a persistently drier phase. From 2015 through 2023, satellite measurements showed that the average amount of freshwater stored on land — that includes liquid surface water like lakes and rivers, plus water in aquifers underground — was 290 cubic miles (1,200 cubic km) lower than the average levels from 2002 through 2014 ... reduction in available water puts a strain on farmers and communities, potentially leading to famine, conflicts, poverty, and an increased risk of disease when people turn to contaminated water sources, according to a UN report on water stress published in 2024 ... Considering that the nine warmest years in the modern temperature record coincided with the abrupt freshwater decline, “We don’t think this is a coincidence, and it could be a harbinger of what’s to come.”
https://science.nasa.gov/earth/nasa-satellites-reveal-abrupt-drop-in-global-freshwater-levels
see also https://scitechdaily.com/vanishing-waters-nasa-reveals-alarming-global-freshwater-decline/
reporting on a study at https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-024-09860-wReality check on technologies to remove carbon dioxide from the air
Study finds many climate-stabilization plans are based on questionable assumptions about “direct air capture”
Many strategies [include] direct air capture (DAC), a technology that removes CO2 from the ambient air. As a reality check, a team of researchers in the MIT Energy Initiative (MITEI) examined those strategies, and what they found was alarming: The strategies rely on overly optimistic — indeed, unrealistic — assumptions about how much CO2 could be removed by DAC. As a result, the strategies won’t perform as predicted ... Their investigation identified three unavoidable engineering challenges that together lead to a fourth challenge — high costs.
• 1) Scaling up: Concentration of CO2 in the air is extremely low, “akin to needing to find 10 red marbles in a jar of 25,000 marbles of which 24,990 are blue”
• 2) Energy requirement: Even the best DAC processes proposed today would consume large amounts of energy [so] the source of that electricity is critical ... coal-based electricity to drive DAC would generate 1.2 tons of CO2 for each ton of CO2 captured [thus] defeating the whole purpose of the DAC.
• 3) Siting: Some analysts have asserted that, because air is everywhere, DAC units can be located anywhere. But in reality, siting a DAC plant involves many complex issues.
• 4) Cost: Recent studies assume[d] DAC costs as low as $100 to $200 per ton of CO2 removed. But the researchers found evidence suggesting far higher costs.
The bottom line: In their paper, the MITEI team calls DAC a “very seductive concept” [because it] would minimize disruptions to key parts of the world’s economy [but] that prospect doesn’t look likely [and] there is not a clear pathway to reducing work requirements much below the levels of current DAC technologies.
https://news.mit.edu/2024/reality-check-tech-to-remove-carbon-dioxide-from-air-1120
reporting on a study at https://www.cell.com/one-earth/abstract/S2590-3322(24)00421-4Why has Earth been so unusually hot for the past 2 years? Climate scientists are trying to figure that out
NASA climate scientist says it's 'frustrating' not to have answers
The past two years have been different — and climate scientists don't understand why. [Something] seems to be driving temperatures up, higher than scientists expected or would like. [Copernicus Climate Change Service] said in its latest monthly bulletin that 2024 is virtually certain to be the warmest year on record [and] NOAA found in its latest monthly report that Jan-Oct temperature was the warmest in the 175-year record. This isn't what was expected ... the warmth that we typically see after an El Niño was expected to stick around for [only] the first few months of 2024 [but] "We're now 11 months going on 12 months after the peak of the El Niño event and global temperatures are still exceptionally high," said Zeke Hausfather, a research scientist at Berkeley Earth ... Climate scientists aren't gods. They take the data that they have, analyze it and reach conclusions. But for these past two highly anomalous years, they are struggling with what they're seeing, and it's difficult for them to know what's coming next.
https://ici.radio-canada.ca/rci/en/news/2121431/2024-warm-year-climate
see also https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/13/opinion/climate-change-heat-planet.htmlDelhi chokes as air pollution turns 'severe'
Delhi and its neighbouring cities are experiencing pollution levels that are at least 30-35 times the safe limit recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) [and] experts say that the condition is likely to get worse ... Several northern states have been experiencing toxic air and poor visibility over the past few weeks. There have been reports of flights to and from Delhi being cancelled or delayed due to low visibility. So thick is the smog that it is visible even from space.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0k8dxpr8x5oThe Northeast Is Becoming Fire Country
For weeks now, more than ninety per cent of the Northeast has experienced abnormal dryness. In some places, such as New York and New Jersey, the deficit of rainfall is nine inches and soil moisture is ninety-five-per-cent below average. The result is that the Northeast has become extremely combustible. Typically, the region’s wildfire season is in April and May, but maps of recent fires in Maine, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island resemble maps of California in August, with hundreds of red dots. The Associated Press reported that Massachusetts typically has around fifteen wildland fires each October; this October, there have been about two hundred ... For thousands of years, before European settlement, the Northeast burned frequently. “Historically, for as long as we have records, fire was always around,” Stephen Pyne told me. “So it’s not that the Northeast doesn’t burn. It’s just that we’ve eliminated the conditions and now we may be restoring some of those conditions” ... for more than a century the Northeast has practiced near-total fire suppression even in landscapes that might benefit from fire. Now, as Neil Pederson, a senior ecologist at Harvard Forest, in Massachusetts, told me, “we do have to get more used to fire. We have to think about fire more often.”
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-lede/the-northeast-is-becoming-fire-country?World’s 1.5C climate target ‘deader than a doornail’, experts say
The internationally agreed goal to keep the world’s temperature rise below 1.5C is now “deader than a doornail” [with] 2024 on track to be at least 1.5C (2.7F) hotter than pre-industrial times, underlining it as the warmest year on record, beating a mark set just last year. The past 10 consecutive years have already been the hottest 10 years ever recorded ... “The goal to avoid exceeding 1.5C is deader than a doornail. It’s almost impossible to avoid at this point because we’ve just waited too long to act,” said Zeke Hausfather, climate research lead at Stripe and a research scientist at Berkeley Earth ... “I never thought 1.5C was a conceivable goal. I thought it was a pointless thing,” said Gavin Schmidt, a climate scientist at NASA. “I’m totally unsurprised, like almost all climate scientists, that we are shooting past it at a rapid clip. But it was extremely galvanizing, so I was wrong about that. Maybe it is useful; maybe people do need impossible targets. You shouldn’t ask scientists how to galvanize the world because clearly we don’t have a fucking clue. People haven’t got a magic set of words to keep us to 1.5C.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/nov/18/climate-crisis-world-temperature-target
see also https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/nov/20/the-climate-crisis-in-charts-how-2024-has-set-unwanted-new-recordsRapid shift in methane carbon isotopes suggests microbial emissions drove record high atmospheric methane growth 2020–2022
The growth rate of the atmospheric abundance of methane (CH4) reached a record high of 15.4 ppb yr between 2020 and 2022 ... 85% of CH4 growth during 2007–2020 was due to increased microbial emissions [includes permafrost collapse] ... with no increase in fossil CH4 emissions required to match observations ... observed by multiple long-term monitoring programs: Max Planck Institute, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, and Tohoku University and National Institute of Polar Research, which have independent sampling schemes, analytical techniques, and data processing and quality protocols. [Implies that CH4 emissions are now past any possibility of control.]
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2411212121Fossil fuel CO2 emissions increase again in 2024
Despite the urgent need to cut emissions to slow climate change, the researchers say there is still “no sign” that the world has reached a peak in fossil CO2 emissions. With projected emissions from land-use change (such as deforestation) of 4.2 billion tonnes, total CO2 emissions are projected to be 41.6 billion tonnes in 2024, up from 40.6 billion tonnes last year ... both fossil and land-use change CO2 emissions are set to rise, with drought conditions exacerbating emissions from deforestation and forest degradation fires during the El Niño climate event of 2023-2024. With over 40 billion tonnes released each year at present, the level of CO2 in the atmosphere continues to rise -- driving increasingly dangerous global warming.
https://globalcarbonbudget.org/fossil-fuel-co2-emissions-increase-again-in-2024Fossil fuel emissions to hit new record in 2024 – researchers
Planet-warming carbon dioxide emissions from oil, gas and coal rose to a new record high this year, according to preliminary research Wednesday that found no sign the world was moving away from fossil fuels as planned. Nations gathering in Azerbaijan for crunch UN climate talks [COP 29] have pledged to “transition away” from fossil fuels and aim to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial times. But oil, gas and coal emissions continue to rise, according to the new findings from an international network of scientists ... global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels [rose] 0.8 percent in 2024 compared to last year, reaching a record of 37.4 billion tonnes ... This leaves the world with an available “budget” of 235 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions for a coin toss chance of curbing warming to 1.5C, scientists said, in an assessment that takes into account the current level of warming, as well as the future effects of other greenhouse gases. That translates to six years at the current rate of CO2 emissions.
https://globalnation.inquirer.net/255324/fossil-fuel-emissions-to-hit-new-record-in-2024-researchers
see also https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/nov/13/no-sign-of-promised-fossil-fuel-transition-as-emissions-hit-new-highExtreme heat ravages Greece's mussel harvest
After a summer of scorching heat and warming waters, it was "as if they boiled in their own environment", he says. "Twenty-five years in mussel farming, we did not expect - we could not imagine - this," Sougioultzis said aboard his boat in the Thermaic Gulf near Thessaloniki in northern Greece, the country's main mussel producing region. "Any damage we had in the past was manageable. This year it looks like climate change is here. The climate crisis is here."
https://www.euronews.com/2021/09/17/uk-climate-change-greece-musselsMeat, oil and pesticide industry lobbyists turned out in record numbers at Cop16
In total 1,261 business and industry delegates registered for Cop16 in Cali, Colombia, which ended in disarray and without significant progress on a number of key issues including nature funding, monitoring biodiversity loss and work on reducing environmentally harmful business subsidies. The number is more than double the 613 present at the UN’s previous biodiversity conference in 2022 ... business and industry increased disproportionately. Industry groups working in pharmaceuticals, oil and gas, agrochemicals, food and beverage processing and tech all had more people registered to attend.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/nov/13/meat-oil-and-pesticide-industry-lobbyists-turned-out-in-record-numbers-at-cop16
see also https://www.euronews.com/green/2024/11/04/nobody-should-be-okay-with-this-cop16-ends-in-confusion-with-no-consensus-on-nature-fundinJellyfish could be one marine creature that benefits from climate change
A study by researchers at Germany’s Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) looked at eight different species of Arctic jellyfish. They exposed them to rising water temperatures, sea ice retreat and other changing environmental conditions through computer models. Scientists found that by the second half of the century, seven of the eight species could expand their habitat polewards under these conditions. Simulations showed that the lion’s mane jellyfish - one of the biggest stinging jellyfish- in particular could nearly triple the size of its current habitat. Climate change could mean an ocean dominated by jellyfish ... these factors could mean a shift from a diverse marine ecosystem dominated by fish to an ocean full of jellyfish. Many researchers are already warning of impending ‘ocean jellification’.
https://www.euronews.com/green/2024/05/17/jellyfish-could-be-one-marine-creature-that-benefits-from-climate-changeWorld is already becoming dangerously overheated, warns WMO
The latest WMO Global State of the Climate report for 2024 shows that the last decade was the warmest on record. It's exactly what scientists had predicted, according to Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. "It's not a surprise. And we have to recognise that scientists have been marking this for many years — more than 30 years in fact — and that what is a surprise is the slowness to react," said Saulo. The WMO report follows the latest data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), which last week declared that 2024 will be the hottest year on record.
https://www.euronews.com/green/2024/11/11/world-is-already-becoming-dangerously-overheated-warns-wmoAtmospheric Rivers Are Shifting Northward
Atmospheric rivers—the massive bands of water vapor that deliver crucial rainfall to regions worldwide—are steadily moving toward Earth's poles ... The implications of this geographic shift are far-reaching. Regions that historically relied on atmospheric rivers for their water supply, such as California, where these systems provide up to half the annual rainfall, may face increasing uncertainty. Meanwhile, higher-latitude areas like British Columbia and Alaska are experiencing more frequent deluges, leading to heightened flood risks and potential infrastructure challenges ... The study identifies cooling trends in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean as a primary driver of this poleward migration. This cooling, often associated with La Niña conditions [pushes] these rivers of moisture toward higher latitudes. For communities in subtropical regions [which] depend on these systems for filling reservoirs and sustaining agriculture may face more frequent and severe droughts as their reliable moisture source becomes increasingly erratic ... This shift also poses concerns for the Arctic region, where increased moisture from atmospheric rivers can accelerate sea ice melt [and] further amplify global warming.
https://www.newsweek.com/atmospheric-rivers-are-shifting-northward-us-west-coast-faces-impacts-1974483
reporting on a study at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adq0604In a Record, All but Two U.S. States Are in Drought
“Drought in many parts of the country and the world is becoming more frequent, longer and more severe,” said Erica Fleishman, director of the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute and a professor at Oregon State University ... Even after Hurricane Helene dropped huge amounts of destructive rain across the Southeast, the region is experiencing drought. Not much rain has fallen since the storm and warmer temperatures mean higher evaporation rates and drier soils. Drought doesn’t just come from a lack of precipitation like rain or snow. Drought conditions are driven by abnormally high temperatures that can quickly suck moisture from the atmosphere and the ground. Even if the total amount of precipitation stays the same or increases a bit, drought can occur. That is especially true as rain events get more episodic, with heavier deluges over a smaller number of events. When all the water comes at once, it’s more difficult for soil to soak it up or for water storage to contain it.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/04/climate/united-states-record-drought.htmlKey Colorado River basins could be at a tipping point: Study
Six key watersheds along the Colorado River have become increasingly vulnerable to drought and could be nearing a point of no return, a new study has found. These basins, located in Colorado’s “Western Slope” region — the part of the state west of the Continental Divide — face a critical situation in which traditional water delivery capabilities may no longer be available, according to the study ... The researchers — from Cornell University and Utrecht University in the Netherlands — paired the Colorado river’s current planning model with a new modeling framework that created hundreds of thousands of streamflow scenarios, under historical and climate-change conditions. Their results raised concerns by indicating that vulnerability analyses that rely only on historical records might be severely underestimating the potential impacts of drought events.
https://thehill.com/policy/equilibrium-sustainability/4990948-colorado-river-watersheds-vulnerability/
reporting on a study at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024EF004841Lake Powell Faces Sediment Crisis: '30,000 Dump Truck Loads' per Day
Lake Powell, an iconic centerpiece of the Colorado River Basin and the second-largest reservoir in the United States, is facing an escalating crisis as decades of sediment buildup threaten its future. Created in 1963 by constructing the Glen Canyon Dam, Lake Powell was intended to be a critical water storage reservoir for the arid western United States ... "Sedimentation is a very serious problem at Lake Powell," [said] Eric Balken, executive director of the GCI ... "When Glen Canyon Dam was built, the Bureau of Reclamation told the public it wouldn't silt in for 700-1,000 years. Now we know that's not true ... we could see major sediment problems in the next decade." This sediment buildup has triggered a cascade of impacts throughout the Colorado River ecosystem. Toxic heavy metals like arsenic and lead are trapped within these sediments rather than flowing out to sea. As water levels drop as a result of prolonged drought, concentrations of these harmful materials increase, posing greater risks to fish, wildlife and people. Downstream, beaches at the river's mouth are eroding, as sand, meant to replenish coastal areas, remains trapped in Lake Powell and Lake Mead, another struggling reservoir further along the river. "If nothing is done, the dam will silt in, and water delivery to the 25 million people downstream will be compromised. It's just a matter of time."
https://www.newsweek.com/lake-powell-faces-sediment-crisis-30000-dump-truck-loads-1979956Conventional agriculture increases global warming while decreasing system sustainability
Intensification of farming since the Green Revolution has led to large increases in yield but has also increased anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Here, by providing a global comprehensive cradle-to-gate quantification from seed to yield, we show that the global warming potential (GWP) of conventional agriculture of grain crops has increased eightfold from 1961 to 2020, whereas the sustainability index (SI) has decreased threefold. Tillage, synthetic fertilizers and irrigation together accounted for 90% of the increased GWP, linked to tenfold increases in fertilization and groundwater use and more than doubled mechanized and irrigated areas.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02170-4Greenhouse gas concentrations surge again to new record in 2023
According to a report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO): CO2 concentrations have increased 11.4 % in just 20 years ("faster than any time experienced during human existence") ... Long lifetime of CO2 in atmosphere locks in future temperature increase ... El Niño and vegetation fires fuel surge in later part of 2023 ... Effectiveness of carbon sinks like forests cannot be taken for granted ... “Another year. Another record. This should set alarm bells ringing among decision makers. We are clearly off track ... a real impact on our lives and our planet,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/greenhouse-gas-concentrations-surge-again-new-record-2023
reporting on a study at https://wmo.int/publication-series/wmo-greenhouse-gas-bulletin-no-20Would abandoning false hope help us to tackle the climate crisis?
Climate instability and nature extinction are making the Earth an uglier, riskier and more uncertain place [and] worse could be in store as we approach or pass a series of dangerous tipping points ... Yet, apparently we must still have hope. It is mandatory. Change is impossible, we are told, without positive thinking and a belief in a better future ... But what if it is hope that is the problem? What if hope is the antidepressant that has been keeping us all comfortably numb when we have every right to be sad, worried, stirred to action or just plain angry? ... New research reveals that people who are experiencing climate-related distress are more likely to engage in collective action. History, by contrast, shows that manufactured optimism can lead to complacency and the shirking of responsibilities ... If you are not alarmed at what is happening to the forests, oceans, ice-caps, cities, farms and supermarkets, then you are not paying enough attention. That may be due to fear, doubt or ignorance. Or perhaps you are enveloped in that insidious, complacent long-term form of hope that has been diverting our gaze, giving us pause, slowing action and normalising the degradation of our home planet. Essentially this can be boiled down to the fact that we are leaving our problems to our children.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/24/we-need-a-dash-of-hope-but-is-too-much-diverting-our-gaze-from-the-perils-of-the-climate-crisis
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s44168-024-00172-8Future atmospheric rivers could bring catastrophic ocean level rise off the West Coast, simulation study shows
The same carbon dioxide that is helping to warm the planet is also making the oceans more acidic—and ocean levels around the world have been rising as ice from the polar regions has been melting. Together such changes are expected to have a major impact on atmospheric rivers (ARs). Most models suggest they will not only happen more often but they will bring much more rain and higher winds. In this new study, the research team notes that there is another impact from ARs that has not been very well studied—ocean level rise along the part of the shoreline where ARs come ashore, which is similar in some respects to storm surges from hurricanes. To find out what sort of ocean level rise North America might expect, they created models using data from past ARs [showing] that future ARs could lead to a rise in sea levels by as much as 200% compared to those in the past.
https://phys.org/news/2024-10-future-atmospheric-rivers-catastrophic-ocean.html
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01774-0Trees and land absorbed almost no CO2 last year. Is nature’s carbon sink failing?
“We’re seeing cracks in the resilience of the Earth’s systems ... terrestrial ecosystems are losing their carbon store and carbon uptake capacity ... oceans are also showing signs of instability,” Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, told an event at New York Climate Week in September. “Nature has so far balanced our abuse. This is coming to an end” ... In the absence of [currently nonexistent] technology that can remove atmospheric carbon on a large scale, the Earth’s vast forests, grasslands, peat bogs and oceans are the only option for absorbing human carbon pollution ... But rising temperatures, increased extreme weather and droughts are pushing the ecosystems into uncharted territory. The kind of rapid land sink collapse seen in 2023 has not been factored into most climate models. If it continues, it raises the prospect of rapid global heating beyond what those models have predicted ... Only one major tropical rainforest – the Congo basin – remains a strong carbon sink that removes more than it releases into the atmosphere ... the Amazon basin is experiencing a record-breaking drought, with rivers at an all-time low. Expansion of agriculture has turned tropical rainforests in south-east Asia into a net source of emissions in recent years ... “In the northern hemisphere, where you have more than half of CO2 uptake, we have seen a decline trend in absorption for eight years [and] there is no good reason to believe it will bounce back ... None of these models have factored in losses like extreme factors which have been observed, such as the wildfires in Canada last year that amounted to six months of US fossil emissions. Two years before, we wrote a paper that found that Siberia also lost the same amount of carbon,” says Ciais. The consequences for climate targets are stark.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/14/nature-carbon-sink-collapse-global-heating-models-emissions-targets-evidence-aoe
First Dog cartoon from https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2024/oct/28/scientists-have-discovered-that-earths-carbon-sinks-are-not-really-carbon-sinking-at-the-momentEurope’s biggest ‘nerve centres’ at increasing risk from climate change
Half of the largest cities on the planet will be at risk of one or more climate hazards by 2050 ... Floods, heatwaves, cyclones and water stress will increasingly pummel these populous hubs unless greenhouse gas emissions are brought under control ... “The cities in our study - nerve centres of the world economy that contribute almost 20 per cent of global GDP and are home to 440 million people - are particularly exposed to climate risk,” says LSEG’s global head of sustainable investment research, Jaakko Kooroshy. “Impacts are already beginning to materialise at only 1.3°C of warming” ... LSEG predicts that global heating will reach 2.6°C under current policies ... When it comes to emissions cuts, the EU is not doing enough to protect its cities [and] the bloc will surpass its 1.5°C aligned emissions budget by 2035.
https://www.euronews.com/green/2024/11/01/amsterdam-london-madrid-europes-biggest-nerve-centres-at-increasing-risk-from-climate-chanThawing Permafrost Adds to Near-Term Global Warming
An international team, led by researchers at Stockholm University, found that from 2000 to 2020, carbon dioxide uptake by the land was largely offset by emissions from it. Overall, they concluded that the region has been a net contributor to global warming in recent decades ... Researchers found the region, especially the forests, took up a fraction more carbon dioxide than it released [but] this uptake was largely offset by carbon dioxide emitted from lakes and rivers, as well as from fires that burned both forest and tundra. They also found that the region’s lakes and wetlands were strong sources of methane during those two decades. Compared to carbon dioxide, methane can drive significant climate warming in short timescales ... The findings suggest the net change in greenhouse gases helped warm the planet over the 20-year period.
https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/nasa-helps-find-thawing-permafrost-adds-to-near-term-global-warming/
reporting on a study at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GB007969PFAS mixtures more toxic than single compounds, suggesting higher danger
Mixtures of different types of PFAS compounds are often more toxic than single chemicals, first-of-its-kind research finds ... but regulatory agencies largely look at the chemicals in isolation from one another, meaning regulators are probably underestimating the health threat. “PFAS needs to be regulated as mixtures,” said Diana Aga, a study co-author ... PFAS are a class of about 15,000 [endocrine disruptor] compounds ... they have been linked to cancer, birth defects, decreased immunity, high cholesterol, kidney disease and a range of other serious health problems ... PFOA and PFOS are two of the most common and dangerous PFAS chemicals, research over recent decades has found, and one of those compounds is very frequently found in contaminated human blood or drinking water. The sum of those chemicals can present a danger, even if they are [individually] below the Environmental Protection Agency’s drinking-water limits of 4ppt (parts per trillion) ... The study also looked at PFAS combinations found in sewage sludge used as fertilizer and spread on cropland as a cheap fertilizer.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/nov/01/pfas-mixtures-water-toxicMore than 1 in 3 tree species are at risk of going extinct, new analysis shows
The report for the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s Red List [showed] that of the 47,282 tree species assessed, at least 16,425 are at risk of going extinct — more than double the number of all birds, mammals, reptiles and amphibians threatened with extinction combined. Planet-warming fossil fuel pollution is threatening the trees, which suck that pollution out of the atmosphere, meaning their loss is exacerbating the climate crisis. The Red List is considered the most comprehensive global source for threatened species and extinction information.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/28/climate/tree-species-threatened-extinction/index.htmlOne-quarter of World’s Crops Threatened by Water Risks
One out of every 11 people in the world grapples with hunger. A hidden and growing driver is lack of water [but] one-quarter of the world’s crops are grown in areas where the water supply is highly stressed, highly unreliable or both. Mounting risks like climate change and increased competition for water are threatening water supplies and, in turn, food security. Rice, wheat and corn — which provide more than half the world’s food calories — are particularly vulnerable [and] food demands are increasing: Research shows the world will need to produce 56% more food calories in 2050 than it did in 2010.
https://www.wri.org/insights/growing-water-risks-food-cropsThe World’s Carbon Sinks Are on Fire
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/17/climate/carbon-fires-forests-global-warming.html
reporting on a study at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adl5889Helene and Milton upended a key part of [US] food supply
[Helene] battered six states, causing billions of dollars in losses to crops, livestock, and aquaculture. Just 13 days later, Milton barreled across Florida, leaving millions without power and hampering ports, feed facilities, and fertilizer plants along the state’s west coast. Preliminary estimates suggest. Helene, one of the nation’s deadliest and costliest hurricanes since Katrina in 2005, upended hundreds of thousands of businesses throughout the Southeast and devastated a wide swath of the region’s agricultural operations. Milton’s impact was more limited, but the two calamities are expected to reduce feed and fertilizer supplies and increase production costs, which could drive up prices for things like chicken and fruit in the months and years to come. The compounding effect of the two storms will create “a direct impact on agricultural production,” said Seungki Lee, an agricultural economist at Ohio State University.
https://grist.org/food-and-agriculture/helene-and-milton-upended-a-key-part-of-the-nations-food-supply‘We don’t know where the tipping point is’: climate expert on potential collapse of Atlantic circulation
Oceanographer Stefan Rahmstorf explains why AMOC breakdown could be catastrophic for both humans and marine life The dangers of a collapse of the main Atlantic Ocean circulation, known as Amoc, have been “greatly underestimated” and would have devastating and irreversible impacts, according to an open letter released at the weekend by 44 experts from 15 countries. One of the signatories, Stefan Rahmstorf, an oceanographer and climatologist who heads the Earth system analysis department at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, explains here why he has recently upgraded his risk assessment of an Amoc breakdown as a result of global heating
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/23/we-dont-know-where-the-tipping-point-is-climate-expert-on-potential-collapse-of-atlantic-circulation
see also https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/rivers-oceans/we-dont-really-consider-it-low-probability-anymore-collapse-of-key-atlantic-current-could-have-catastrophic-impacts-says-oceanographer-stefan-rahmstorfClimate scientists warn Nordic ministers of changing Atlantic Ocean current
More than 40 climate scientists are urging Nordic ministers to prevent global warming from causing a major change in an Atlantic Ocean current, which could trigger abrupt shifts in weather patterns and damage ecosystems. Several studies have suggested that the risk of the Atlantic current changing has been greatly underestimated ... Global subsidies for fossil fuels reached a record $7 trillion in 2022, according to the International Monetary Fund. Such subsidies show there is no credible effort to prevent such a climate disaster.
https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/climate-scientists-warn-nordic-ministers-changing-atlantic-ocean-current-2024-10-21Humanity is on the verge of ‘shattering Earth’s natural limits’, say experts in biodiversity warning
“We are already locked in for significant damage, and we’re heading in a direction that will see more,” says Tom Oliver, professor of applied ecology at the University of Reading ... Since 1970, some studies estimate wildlife populations have declined on average by 73%, with huge numbers lost in the decades and centuries before ... “I think we will, certainly, in the next 15 to 20 years, see continued food crises, and the real risk of multiple breadbasket failures … that’s in addition to a lot of the other risks that might impact us” ... He says we are in an era of mass extinction with “huge uncertainty in where the safe limits are”. Scientists say human activity has pushed the world into the danger zone in seven out of eight indicators of planetary safety.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/21/humanity-earth-natural-limits-biodiversity-warning-cop16-conference-scientists-academicsOver-reliance on land for carbon dioxide removal in net-zero climate pledges
Achieving net-zero climate targets requires some level of carbon dioxide removal. Current assessments focus on tonnes of CO2 removed, without specifying what form these removals will take. Here, we show that countries’ climate pledges require approximately 1 (0.9–1.1) billion ha of land for removals. For over 40% of this area, the pledges envisage the conversion of existing land uses to forests, while the remaining area restores existing ecosystems and land uses ... The results are concerning [and] demonstrate a gap between governments’ expected reliance on land and the role that land can realistically play in climate mitigation. This adds another layer to the observed shortcomings of national climate pledges.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-53466-0Quarter of emergency rooms in Netherlands inaccessible during extreme downpours
Almost a quarter of emergency rooms in the Netherlands become inaccessible during very heavy rain ... at least 17 of the 77 Dutch hospitals that provide emergency care will have accessibility issues in the event of 70 millimeters of rain falling in two hours [and] “these types of showers are occurring more frequently due to the changing climate in the Netherlands,” said Dorien Lugt, an expert on flooding at research agency HKV who calculated future precipitation scenarios with the KNMI ... Several hospitals have already suffered flooding due to heavy rainfall in recent years.
https://nltimes.nl/2024/10/23/quarter-emergency-rooms-netherlands-inaccessible-extreme-downpoursThe mystery of the missing La Niña continues – and we don't know why
An expected shift to cool La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean has been delayed again. Forecasters now project only a weak event to emerge by the end of November, which is likely to limit the cooling influence of the climate pattern on global average temperatures. “I do not know why it has slowed down,” says Michelle L’Heureux at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). “If someone did, we might have been able to predict it” ... A rare “triple-dip” La Niña between 2020 and 2022 gave way to a strong El Niño in 2023 [and] as the El Niño faded and neutral temperatures emerged in May of this year, forecasters projected a rapid shift to La Niña conditions would follow [which] contributed to forecasts for an extreme Atlantic hurricane season [but] a full-blown La Niña still has not emerged ... Some research suggests climate change will make ENSO more variable, but this remains a contentious area of climate science.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2452742-the-mystery-of-the-missing-la-nina-continues-and-we-dont-know-why/Liquefied natural gas carbon footprint is worse than coal
Liquefied natural gas leaves a greenhouse gas footprint that is 33% worse than coal, when processing and shipping are taken into account, according to a new Cornell study. “Natural gas and shale gas are all bad for the climate. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is worse,” said Robert Howarth, author of the study ... The emissions of methane and carbon dioxide released during LNG’s extraction, processing, transportation and storage account for approximately half of its total greenhouse gas footprint, Howarth said. Over 20 years, the carbon footprint for LNG is one-third larger than coal ... Even on a 100-year time scale – a more-forgiving scale than 20 years – the liquefied natural gas carbon footprint equals or still exceeds coal ... Methane is more than 80 times more harmful to the atmosphere than carbon dioxide, so even small emissions can have a large climate impact, Howarth said. That’s why the modern LNG tankers with two- and four-stroke engines have more greenhouse gas emissions than those tankers powered by steam. Regardless of better fuel efficiency and lower carbon dioxide emissions, methane still escapes in the tanker’s exhaust. And significant methane emissions occur in the natural gas liquefication process [so] “liquefied natural gas will always have a bigger climate footprint than the natural gas ... It still ends up substantially worse than coal.”
https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2024/10/liquefied-natural-gas-carbon-footprint-worse-coal
see also https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-19/gas-emissions-worse-than-coal-study-finds/104481570
reporting on a study at https://scijournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ese3.1934Researchers Parse the Future of Plankton in an Ever-Warmer World
Plankton are at the base of the ocean food chain, feeding fish that feed billions of people. They are responsible for half of the world’s oxygen supply and half of our planet’s annual carbon sink ... “We’re headed into an ocean and, for that matter, a world that we’re not going to recognize because it’s changing so fundamentally,” says David Hutchins, a marine microbiologist at the University of Southern California ... certain species are losing out, including big juicy plankton, as climate change starves them of nutrients ... “There’s going to be different dominant species — and maybe they’re not going to be the ones we wish were there.”
https://e360.yale.edu/features/plankton-climate-change
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-024-01454-wGlobal water crisis leaves half of world food production at risk in next 25 years
Landmark review says urgent action needed to conserve resources and save ecosystems that supply fresh water
More than half the world’s food production will be at risk of failure within the next 25 years as a rapidly accelerating water crisis grips the planet, unless urgent action is taken to conserve water resources and end the destruction of the ecosystems on which our fresh water depends, experts have warned in a landmark review. Half the world’s population already faces water scarcity, and that number is set to rise as the climate crisis worsens, according to a report from the Global Commission on the Economics of Water published on Thursday. Demand for fresh water will outstrip supply by 40% by the end of the decade, because the world’s water systems are being put under “unprecedented stress”, the report found. The commission found that governments and experts have vastly underestimated the amount of water needed for people to have decent lives.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/16/global-water-crisis-food-production-at-risk
see also https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/press-release/half-world-face-severe-water-stress-2030-unless-water-use-decoupled
see also https://watercommission.org/
reporting on a study at https://economicsofwater.watercommission.org/Droughts likely to be even longer in the future due to climate change
Major climate reports may be underselling the risks of rising emissions
Droughts in the coming decades could be longer than projected by current climate models, a new study published Wednesday in Nature warns. The international team of scientists examined potential biases that could skew climate models used to make drought projections under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change midrange and high emissions scenarios. The researchers corrected for the bias by calibrating those models with observations of the longest annual dry spells between 1998 and 2018 ... The new information can help raise awareness of growing drought risks for populations in the affected areas ... “most of the global land will experience an increase in dry extremes in the future. A significant portion of the global population is already living under water stress … creating an urgent situation that demands immediate attention” ... The World Meteorological Organization warned in 2019 about simultaneous wet and dry extremes. Mann said it’s not a contradiction to see both more extreme rainfall and worse drought.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/09/droughts-likely-to-be-even-longer-in-the-future-due-to-climate-change/
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07887-yRivers in Driest Year for Three Decades, U.N. Says
The report highlighted trends that it considered to be deeply concerning, noting that glaciers feeding rivers across many countries experienced their most significant mass loss in the last 50 years. The decline in glacial ice threatens long-term water security for millions globally. The comprehensive "State of Global Water Resources 2023" report examines various water bodies, including rivers, lakes, reservoirs, groundwater, and glaciers, as well as the evaporation of water from land and plants. According to WMO, around 3.6 billion people experience inadequate access to water for at least one month each year—a figure projected to escalate to 5 billion by 2050. Notably, agriculture consumes about 70 per cent of all freshwater drawn from hydrological systems. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said during the release of the report on Monday: "Water is the canary in the coalmine of climate change."
https://www.newsweek.com/rivers-driest-year-three-decades-un-1964903
see also https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/wmo-report-highlights-growing-shortfalls-and-stress-global-water-resources
reporting on a study at https://wmo.int/publication-series/state-of-global-water-resources-2023Earth’s wildlife populations have disappeared at a ‘catastrophic’ rate in the past half-century, new analysis says
Earth’s wildlife populations have fallen on average by a “catastrophic” rate of 73 percent in the past half-century, according to a new analysis the World Wildlife Fund released Wednesday ... Freshwater populations fell by an average of 85 percent, according to the new Living Planet report, while terrestrial populations by 69 percent and marine populations by 56 percent in the five decades between 1970 and 2020. The worst declines were in Latin America and the Caribbean, with a 95 percent average drop, followed by Africa, 76 percent, and Asia and the Pacific, 60 percent. But the report said that is at least partly because in Europe, Central Asia and North America — whose animal populations declined by more than a third — people living there had already wiped out nature on a wide scale by 1970.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/10/09/wildlife-populations-decline-wwf-report/
reporting on a study at https://www.livingplanetindex.org/Insurance 'nightmare' unfolds for Florida homeowners after back-to-back hurricanes
Many victims facing catastrophic losses due to water damage “are just walking away.”
Fresh off the one-two punch of Helene and Milton, hurricane victims in Florida — even those with insurance — face a challenging recovery ... For the vast majority of affected residents, the financial loss from the storms will be nearly total [because] flooding caused much of the property damage — and most homeowners insurance policies do not cover any flood impact. [But even] for those who do have insurance, the combination of the storms is set to create major complications. The insurance industry is categorizing Hurricane Helene as an almost entirely flood-driven event. While Hurricane Milton was both a wind and rain event, experts say property owners who lacked flood insurance may not be protected from water damage from Milton either, thanks to the way many insurance policies are written these days ... adjusters will have to determine whether any water damage from Milton came in “from below,” which could then be classified as flood damage; or "above,” as a result of wind-driven rain, Friedlander said. Yet even in the latter case, coverage may be denied if it was determined the rain intrusion was the result of pre-existing maintenance failures, like a leaky roof or improper insulation. Many policies also exclude wind-driven rain as a matter of course. For victims facing catastrophic losses due to water damage from either storm, many “are just walking away,” Friedlander said. “Most people can’t realistically afford to rebuild their homes” ... even victims who do have flood insurance are learning they are facing a financial calamity ... reforms passed in 2022 aimed to limit a flood of contingency cases the insurance industry said had been making it impossible to operate in the state [so] now, with the threat of legal action reduced, many insurance companies may be more incentivized to make denials essentially automatic ... "there’s very strong motivation to find every possible way they can” to deny a claim.
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/hurricane-milton-helene-insurance-nightmares-torment-florida-residents-rcna175088Our dystopian climate isn’t just about fires and floods. It’s about society fracturing
The climate crisis, above all, requires the return of that solidarity. That’s because there’s no way to keep it from getting worse without joint public action: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change tells us we have five years left to cut emissions in half, which means it will not be accomplished one Tesla at a time ... there’s also no way to survive it, even in its current form, without intense cooperation. To give one example: Florida’s insurance system is clearly breaking down, as one storm after another drives private insurers out of the state. As the Tampa newspaper put it in June: “As the crisis escalates, state leaders are desperately trying to convince insurance companies to stick around. States are offering them more flexibility to raise premiums or drop certain homes from coverage, fast-tracking rate revisions and making it harder for residents to sue their insurance company.” But as that seawall begins to fail, “a flood of new policyholders are joining state-backed insurance ‘plans of last resort’, leaving states to assume more of the risk on behalf of residents who can’t find coverage in the private sector.” Indeed, so many people are swamping the “state-backed insurance plans” they’re becoming overloaded with risk.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/oct/09/climate-crisis-hurricane-electionCatastrophically warm predictions are more plausible than previously thought, say climate scientists
What will the future climate be like? EPFL climate scientists find that roughly a third of the models are not doing a good job at reproducing existing sea surface temperature data ... "We show that the carbon sensitive models, the ones that predict much stronger heating than the most probable IPCC estimate, are plausible and should be taken seriously," says Athanasios (Thanos) Nenes, EPFL professor of the Laboratory of Atmospheric Processes and their Impacts, affiliate researcher at the Foundation for Research and Technology Hellas, and author of the study together with graduate student Lucile Ricard. "In other words, the current measures to reduce carbon emissions, which are based on lower carbon sensitivity estimates, may not be enough to curb a catastrophically hot future," says Ricard ... Nenes recalls giving a piano concert in Athens in the middle of the summer almost thirty years ago, "The temperatures back then peaked between 33 and 36 degrees Celsius and were considered to be among the highest temperatures of the year. I'll never forget how difficult it was to play the piano in that heat. [But] Greece is now often plagued with summer temperatures above 40 degrees. Forest fires are commonplace, even invading cities, recently burning neighborhoods that I used to live in. And it will only get worse. The planet is literally burning. Temperatures worldwide are consecutively, year after year, breaking records with all of its consequences."
https://phys.org/news/2024-10-catastrophically-plausible-previously-thought-climate.html
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-50813-zScientists have said that we can cool the planet back down. Now they’re not so sure.
For years, scientists and world leaders have pinned their hopes for the future on a hazy promise — that, even if temperatures soar far above global targets, the planet can eventually be cooled back down. This phenomenon, known as a temperature “overshoot,” has been baked into most climate models and plans for the future. In theory, it could be brought back down by pulling carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere. But a new study published Wednesday in the journal Nature shows that blowing past climate goals is more dangerous than it originally seemed. Even if temperatures come back down to 1.5 degrees C, the authors found, many climate impacts will persist for centuries to millennia. And as the planet teeters closer to that temperature limit, overshoot is looking more and more likely ... The extinction of species that could result from these massive planetary shifts, they added, are also not reversible. “Excess deaths are not reversible,” said Rogelj. “If you have a couple of decades in which large proportions of vulnerable people are exposed to extreme heat in a society that is not adapted to this — that’s not reversible.” At the same time, scientists warn that cooling the planet might not even be technically feasible ... One thing, scientists say, is clear: Humanity is headed for a world with more than 1.5 degrees C of warming. The planet has already experienced a 12-month period during which temperatures exceeded that limit, and by the early 2030s, it will be above that mark for multiple years at a time. Overshoot is a way of softening that blow, of making it seem like the world’s climate target is still within reach. But sooner or later, world leaders will have to wrestle with the fact that the most famous climate goal is impossible to meet.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/10/09/overshoot-climate-targets-one-point-five/
see also https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/carbon-removal-no-solution-if-world-overshoots-warming-target-scientists-say-2024-10-09/
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08020-9Heat waves thawing Arctic permafrost
In the northernmost region of the earth the arctic permafrost is melting at an accelerated rate [that] happens to coincide with an extreme heat wave that occurred in northern Siberia in 2020 in which temperatures reportedly reached 38 degrees Celsius (more than 100 degrees Fahrenheit) - record-breaking temperatures for the Arctic region. "The strong increase in thaw slump activity due to the Siberian heatwave shows that carbon mobilization from permafrost soils can respond sharply and non-linearly to increasing temperatures," asserts the paper's lead author, Philipp Bernhard, Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich ... Arctic permafrost reportedly encases approximately 1.5 trillion metric tons of organic carbon, about twice as much as currently contained in the atmosphere. Bernhard agrees that the potential risks associated with this type of carbon mobilization is "a major, but largely neglected component of the Arctic carbon cycle."
https://phys.org/news/2022-07-arctic-permafrost.html
reporting on a study at https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/16/2819/2022/The 2024 state of the climate report: Perilous times on planet Earth
https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/advance-article/doi/10.1093/biosci/biae087/7808595Revealed: how the fossil fuel industry helps spread anti-protest laws across the US
Lobbyists working for major North American oil and gas companies were key architects of anti-protest laws that increase penalties and could lead to non-violent environmental and climate activists being imprisoned up to 10 years ... to deter people frustrated by government failure to tackle the climate crisis from peacefully [protesting]. “Draft bill attached,” wrote a lobbyist representing two influential fossil fuel trade groups to the lead counsel for the West Virginia state energy committee in January 2020. The law, which carries a maximum 10-year prison sentence, was later used to charge at least eight peaceful climate protesters including six senior citizens ... companies and lawmakers sought to increase the threat of criminal action against activists to protect oil and gas expansion – even as deadly and destructive extreme weather events hit communities nationwide ... suggest that the right to peaceful protest is under attack in the US – much like in other major democracies including the UK, Germany, Canada and Australia. These countries, which are the most responsible for greenhouse gas emissions, continue to back fossil fuel expansion fueling climate breakdown while cracking down on activists and groups sounding the alarm.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/sep/26/anti-protest-laws-fossil-fuel-lobbyAntarctica is turning green at an alarming rate, satellite images show
Parts of icy Antarctica are turning green with plant life at an alarming rate as the region is gripped by extreme heat events, according to new research, sparking concerns about the changing landscape on this vast continent. Scientists used satellite imagery and data to analyze vegetation levels on the Antarctic Peninsula, a long mountain chain that points north to the tip of South America, and which has been warming much faster than the global average. They found plant life — mostly mosses — had increased in this harsh environment more than 10-fold over the past four decades ... In March 2022, temperatures in some parts of the continent reached up to 70 degrees above normal, the most extreme temperature departures ever recorded in this part of the planet. As fossil fuel pollution continues to heat up the world, Antarctica will keep on warming and this greening is only likely to accelerate, the scientists predict.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/04/climate/antarctica-greening-vegetation-satellite-images/index.htmlI Wasn’t Prepared to Be a Climate Refugee
A climate advocate learns firsthand on the price of climate change in our lives
Less than two months after we moved [to the “climate haven” of Asheville NC] we were forced to leave ... the hurricane made its way inland from the Gulf of Mexico through Florida, Georgia and South Carolina. Along its path, it ripped apart community after community. And then it hit western Appalachia. At 2,000 feet of elevation and 300 miles from the coast, Asheville is a place where people went to get away from devastating hurricanes ... It was hard to get information [because] within hours, we lost power, Internet and even cell service ... I sat in my car to listen to the local radio station’s updates. That’s how I learned that the water wasn’t safe to drink. The treatment plant was under eight feet of water and the distribution pipes had washed away ... this was an unnatural disaster. Climate change, caused by burning fossil fuels, is making the planet hotter. The ocean absorbs much of this excess heat. As Hurricane Helene approached the coast of Florida, it gathered energy from unusually warm ocean water. Before the storm hit the coast, it went through a “rapid intensification” that transformed it into a major hurricane ... now I know firsthand that no place is safe from the climate crisis.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/hurricane-helene-made-me-a-climate-change-refugee/Arctic Sea Ice Near Historic Low; Antarctic Ice Continues Decline
This year, Arctic sea ice shrank to a minimal extent of 1.65 million square miles (4.28 million square kilometers). That’s about 750,000 square miles (1.94 million square kilometers) below the 1981 to 2010 end-of-summer average of 2.4 million square miles (6.22 million square kilometers). The difference in ice cover spans an area larger than the state of Alaska ... Sea ice in the southern polar regions was also low in 2024. Around Antarctica, scientists are tracking near record-low sea ice at a time when it should have been growing extensively during the Southern Hemisphere’s darkest and coldest months ... 2024 prolongs a recent downward trend [which] hints at a long-term shift in conditions in the Southern Ocean, likely resulting from global climate change.
https://www.nasa.gov/earth/arctic-sea-ice-near-historic-low-antarctic-ice-continues-declineHow future heat waves at sea could devastate UK marine ecosystems and fisheries
The oceans are warming at an alarming rate. 2023 shattered records across the world's oceans, and was the first time that ocean temperatures exceeded 1°C over pre-industrial levels. This led to the emergence of a series of marine heat wave events across both hemispheres, from the waters around Japan, around South America, and across the wider North Atlantic. Marine heat waves are periods of extremely warm sea temperatures that can form in quite localized hot spots but also span large parts of ocean basins. By definition, they have to last five days to be classed as a marine heat wave, but some major events have lasted months—even years, in an extreme case. Notable events have led to catastrophic impacts on marine ecosystems, the economy and coastal communities. For example, coral bleaching in the tropics has caused huge losses to the tourism industry, mass mortalities or major shifts in fisheries have impacted fishing industries worldwide, and vast losses of sea grass meadows and kelp forests have decimated countries' natural capital.
https://phys.org/news/2024-10-future-sea-devastate-uk-marine.htmlWorld’s oceans near critical acidification level
The report by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) details nine factors that are crucial for regulating the planet’s ability to sustain life. In six of these areas, the safe limit has already been exceeded in recent years as a result of human activity. The crucial threshold for ocean acidification could soon become the seventh ... “As CO2 emissions increase, more of it dissolves in sea water… making the oceans more acidic,” Boris Sakschewski, one of the lead authors, told reporters. “Even with rapid emission cuts, some level of continued acidification may be unavoidable due to the CO2 already emitted and the time it takes for the ocean system to respond. Therefore, breaching the ocean acidification boundary appears inevitable within the coming years.” All nine planetary boundaries are “interconnected” so breaching one crucial limit can destabilise Earth’s entire life system, Sakschewski said.
https://www.jamaicaobserver.com/2024/09/23/worlds-oceans-near-critical-acidification-level-report/
reporting on a study at https://www.planetaryhealthcheck.org/storyblok-cdn/f/301438/x/03be75c484/planetaryhealthcheck2024_report.pdfGrim outlook for Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier
Tidal action on the underside of the Thwaites Glacier in the Antarctic will “inexorably” accelerate melting this century, according to new research by British and American scientists ... could destabilize the entire West Antarctic ice sheet, leading to its eventual collapse. The massive glacier—which is roughly the size of Florida—is of particular interest to scientists because of the rapid speed at which it is changing and the impact its loss would have on sea levels (the reason for its “Doomsday” moniker). It also acts as an anchor holding back the West Antarctic ice sheet ... Rob Larter, a marine geophysicist who contributed to the research, said in a news release. “Our findings indicate it is set to retreat further and faster.”
https://time.com/7022831/thwaites-glacier-doomsday-melting-faster-antarctic-ice-sheet-new-research/
reporting on a study at https://thwaitesglacier.org/news/grim-outlook-antarcticas-thwaites-glacierScientists have captured Earth’s climate over the last 485 million years. Here’s the surprising place we stand now
Modern humans appeared after 50 million years of falling temperatures that led to the coldest period recorded
The timeline ... shows the intimate link between carbon dioxide and global temperatures and reveals that the world was in a much warmer state for most of the history of complex animal life. At its hottest, the study suggests, the Earth’s average temperature reached 96.8 degrees Fahrenheit (36 degrees Celsius) — far higher than the historic 58.96 F (14.98 C) the planet hit last year [and] illustrates how swift and dramatic temperature shifts were associated with many of the world’s worst moments ... At no point in the nearly half-billion years that Judd and her colleagues analyzed did the Earth change as fast as it is changing now [so] “what we’re doing now is unprecedented” ... makes clear that the conditions humans are accustomed to are quite different from those that have dominated our planet’s history ... global temperatures could reach nearly 62.6 F (17 C) by the end of the century — a level not seen in the timeline since the Miocene epoch, more than 5 million years ago.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/09/19/earth-temperature-global-warming-planet
reporting on a study at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adk3705‘Climate Havens’ Don’t Exist
The worst damage from Hurricane Helene came in areas that were expected to be relatively immune to the effects of climate change
Many of the places where people died were far away from the coast, like Asheville. Typically, by the time storms get there, they are a lot weaker because they no longer have access to the warm ocean waters that power them ... “the Atlantic Ocean and, in this case, the Gulf of Mexico have been abundantly warm this season ... And that warm water, near the ideal temperature for a bath, helped provide the energy Helene needed to rapidly intensify” ... U.S. counties that regularly get hit by hurricanes, face major wildfires and floods and swelter under punishing heat have also been some of the most popular places to move [because] people tend to weigh economic concerns and lifestyle preferences more than potential for catastrophe. But that equation may be starting to change.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/01/climate/asheville-climate-change-flood.htmlForest fire size amplifies postfire land surface warming
Climate warming has caused a widespread increase in extreme fire weather, making forest fires longer-lived and larger ... fire size persistently amplified decade-long postfire land surface warming in summer per unit burnt area [and] fire-size-enhanced warming may affect the success and composition of postfire stand regeneration as well as permafrost degradation, presenting previously overlooked, additional feedback effects to future climate and fire dynamics.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07918-8Extreme wildfires doubled over past two decades: Study
The intensity of the 20 most extreme blazes in each year had also more than doubled—a rate that "appears to be accelerating", the study said. "I expected to see some increase, but the rate of increase alarmed me," said the study's lead author Calum Cunningham from the University of Tasmania in Australia. "The effects of climate change are no longer just something of the future. We are now witnessing the manifestation of a drying and heating atmosphere" ... forests also absorb carbon from the atmosphere and the loss of trees to fire releases that CO2 back into the atmosphere where it contributes to global warming. This creates a "feedback effect" on the planet, said Cunningham. "It also blankets large regions in smoke, causing major health effects including many more premature deaths than are caused by the flames themselves."
https://phys.org/news/2024-06-extreme-wildfires-decades.html
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-024-02452-2Zillow home listings to feature climate risk, insurance data
Mindful of increasing risks from extreme weather events such as hurricanes, Zillow will combine climate risk scores, interactive maps and insurance information on its home listings, the company announced this morning. This step gives prospective buyers their first combined look at climate risk information with home insurance recommendations. Due in part to climate change-related trends in extreme weather events, such as hurricanes in Florida and California wildfires, the price of home insurance has been increasing in many parts of the country.
https://www.axios.com/2024/09/26/climate-risk-zillow-insurance-home-listingsBrazil’s ‘Paradise’ on fire: ‘The forest is burning. Animals are burning. Everything’s burning’
River Madeira’s waters have fallen to their lowest level since the 1960s and the skies overhead have filled with smoke from wildfires that are raging across Brazil. “I’ve never seen it like this,” said Souza, a 44-year-old subsistence farmer as her canoe glided through the murk towards her smog-shrouded hamlet, chaperoned by river dolphins whose aquatic home is growing smaller by the day ... This year’s drought – which authorities have called the most intense and widespread in Brazil’s history – has brought misery to those who live along the Madeira, and other major Amazon waterways, including the Solimões and the Negro ... “The river’s so dry. There’s so much sand. So many rocks … This is the first year we’ve faced something like this,” Guimarães complained as the Madeira hit its lowest level since 1967.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/28/brazils-paradise-on-fire-the-forest-is-burning-animals-are-burning-trees-are-burning-everythings-burningEcuador cuts power in half of its provinces amid historic drought
Ecuador is gripped by the worst drought in the country in 61 years and an energy crisis made worse by what the government says is lack of maintenance of existing dams and contracts to ensure new energy generation. The Ecuadorian authorities said the extra suspension of electricity for Sunday was based on "protecting water resources" ... "19 provinces with shortages of water, fires and food security (issues)," Environment Minister Ines Manzano told reporters in Cuenca on Saturday. "The corresponding entities must accept and comply with the resolution declaring a red alert." After the government announced the planned power cuts on Tuesday, the military entered the Mazar hydroelectric plant, of about 170 megawatts and considered key for its large storage capacity, to support its operation and protect it.
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/ecuador-cuts-power-half-its-provinces-amid-historic-drought-2024-09-22/‘We used to sail and fish and play’: how did an Argentinian lake the size of New York City disappear?
Drought and mismanagement have turned Lake Colhué Huapí into a virtual dustbowl
Lake Colhué Huapí, a shallow body of water that once spanned almost 800 sq km, has all but disappeared after years of drought and water-management decisions made with limited resources. Its sister, Lake Musters, lies just a few kilometres to the west. It has half the surface area but nearly six times the depth that Lake Colhué Huapí once had, yet it too has been shrinking ... decades of drought, crumbling infrastructure and limited resources created a water crisis in the region. As more than half of the world’s lakes are shrinking, according to a 2023 meta-study published in Science, people in the Senguer River basin have been searching for solutions to desertification in their region for decades. Climate projections show that the water supply is threatened on all fronts
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2024/sep/26/how-did-an-argentina-lake-the-size-of-new-york-city-disappear-lake-colhue-huapi-musters-patagonia
reporting on a study at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abo2812Drought, flooding, drought again: Is ‘weather whiplash’ our new normal?
Natural disasters are increasingly happening in quick succession, raising new threats
Weather whiplash is set off by greenhouse gasses emitted by burning fossil fuels, which warm the atmosphere. Warm air can hold more water vapor than cold air, so the atmosphere gets thirstier in hot weather, sucking up extra moisture from the ground. Dry vegetation is left behind, primed to burn if a fire ignites. All that evaporation also means that when it rains, it pours, raising the risk of deadly flooding and landslides. At the same time, those downpours can accelerate plant growth—leaving more fuel to burn when extreme heat returns to dry out the landscape ... Wildfires also increase the risk of landslides and flooding after they pass through. Burnt vegetation has a diminished ability to hold soil in place or absorb water, and ash that blankets a burn zone allows water to slide downhill without sinking into the earth. “There are no trees or vegetation to slow runoff” ... warmer temperatures will cause more winter precipitation to fall as rain instead of snow [which] could translate to more floods. “Snow is like an annual reservoir that releases water during summer, when there’s higher water demand but we’re not getting rain,” said Davenport [so] not only is the summer drier because of a lower snowpack, but more [winter] water will flow straight into streams and rivers, raising the chances that they overtop their banks .
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/weather-climate-whiplash-drought-floods-heat-wildfiresPortugal’s wildfires produce record emissions with smoke headed for France and Spain
Deadly wildfires raging in northern Portugal have released record emissions, according to the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). With several blazes burning since 14 September, Portugal has recorded the highest total estimated emissions for the month of September in 22 years of CAMS data ... Carbon emissions can be used as an indicator of the strength of the fires. A “significant degradation” in air quality over northern Portugal is expected for the next few days as a result of these wildfires ... A study from earlier this year found that climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of the world’s most extreme wildfires. More than 20 years of NASA satellite data showed that severe burns more than doubled in frequency between 2003 and 2023. They were also 2.3 times more intense with six of the most extreme years happening from 2017 onwards.
https://www.euronews.com/green/2024/09/20/portugals-wildfires-produce-record-emissions-with-smoke-headed-for-france-and-spainPoland, Hungary, Romania: Leaders say fatal floods bear fingerprints of climate change
Poland’s deputy climate minister, Urszula Sara Zielińska, has blamed climate change for the disaster. She told the UK’s BBC that after extreme flooding in 1997, it was said that disasters on this scale would only happen “once every thousand years”. Now they are happening just 26 years later. “There is a clear cause to that and it’s called climate change,” she said ... extreme rainfall events like this are set to increase in Europe as the planet warms.
https://www.euronews.com/green/2024/09/18/poland-hungary-romania-leaders-say-fatal-floods-bear-fingerprints-of-climate-changeLakes drying up leave Greeks in despair
Lake Koronia, one of largest in Greece, is shrinking after a prolonged drought and a summer of record-breaking temperatures, leaving behind cracked earth, dead fish and a persistent stench ... Locals say they can see the 42-square-kilometer (16-square-mile) expanse of water near Thessaloniki retreating day by day ... Water levels at three other natural lakes in the region—Doirani, Volvi and Pikrolimni—are also at their lowest in a decade, according to data last month from the Greek Biotope Wetland Center. Over the last two years, rainfall in the region has been "very low" and the temperatures recorded this year were the highest in the last decade, according to Irini Varsami, a local hydrologist. As well as losing water directly through evaporation, the lake is being drained by the "increasing irrigation needs of (farmers in) the surrounding area", one of the important food-producing plains in the country ... climate change is putting huge pressure on the lakes. According to the national observatory, Greece had the warmest winter and summer on record since reliable data collection began.
https://phys.org/news/2024-09-lakes-drying-greeks-despair.htmlEarth Has Overshot Key ‘Planetary Boundaries,’ Scientists Warn
Human activity is imperiling eight of the planet’s critical life-support systems and seven of them have already passed into a danger zone, according to a massive review of Earth science conducted jointly by more than 60 researchers and published Wednesday in The Lancet Planetary Health. Looking at necessities of a livable Earth — including the climate, freshwater systems, biodiversity and soil nutrients — the researchers find almost all have crossed crucial thresholds ... They conclude that to avoid further destabilization, countries should keep at least half of the planet’s ecosystems intact, limit groundwater extraction and set hard limits on use of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers ... What’s pushing systems past their limits is no surprise: Economic activity. The authors write that “radical” societal changes, including redistributing wealth, are necessary to keep the planet habitable. [However] not all of the boundaries have hard and fast limits to them. Most, like biodiversity loss, air pollution and fertilizer pollution, have no strict levels. The rest of them, he said, are drifting into danger rather than facing a physical cliff — but they all are critical in keeping the whole system healthy.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-11/earth-has-overshot-key-planetary-boundaries-scientists-warn
reporting on a study at https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(24)00042-1/fulltextHuman activity now fuels two-thirds of global methane emissions, report finds
A paper published this week in the journal Earth System Science Data found that global methane emissions over the last five years have risen faster than ever — and at least two-thirds of those emissions are now coming from human sources. Experts said the findings are deeply concerning ... “In terms of methane’s contribution, we’re on a trajectory that is consistent with about 3 degrees C right now,” said Rob Jackson, the study’s lead author, who is also a climate scientist at Stanford and chair of the Global Carbon Project. “We’re far from 1.5 or even 2 degrees C [even] when you look just at methane alone.” Methane is 30 to 80 times stronger at warming than CO2, ton for ton ... “It’s really the only lever we have to slow warming in the next decade or two,” Jackson said. “We really can’t do anything about the trillion tons of carbon dioxide in the air right now on that time frame, but for methane, we could see concentrations return to pre-industrial levels within a decade if we could stop anthropogenic emissions with a magic wand. That’s not likely any time soon but that should be our goal” ... Evan Sherwin, a research scientist at the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory who was not involved with the study, said “It’s a pretty stark warning to us” ... emissions are continuing to accelerate in a dangerous manner. A 2021 global methane pledge signed by 158 countries, including the U.S., aims to reduce global methane emissions at least 30% from 2020 levels by 2030 but has “not really even started to happen yet,” Jackson said. “There are no greenhouse gases going down in the atmosphere yet, and for gases like methane, the levels are going up faster than before,” he said. “It can’t continue for a habitable planet. It looks like we’re heading toward 3 degrees C, which is a terrifying prospect.”
https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2024-09-10/human-activity-fuels-two-thirds-of-global-methane-emissions
see also https://phys.org/news/2024-09-methane-emissions-faster.html
reporting on a study at https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6463Sharks deserting coral reefs as oceans heat up, study shows
Climate crisis is driving key predators from their homes and threatening an already embattled ecosystem Sharks are deserting their coral reef homes as the climate crisis continues to heat up the oceans, scientists have discovered. This is likely to harm the sharks, which are already endangered, and their absence could have serious consequences for the reefs, which are also struggling. The reef sharks are a key part of the highly diverse and delicate ecosystem, which could become dangerously unbalanced without them ... Sharks are cold-blooded and their body temperature is linked to water temperature. “If it gets too hot, they’re going to need to move,” said Dr David Jacoby, a lecturer in zoology at Lancaster University and the leader of the research project.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/sep/09/sharks-deserting-coral-reefs-climate-crisis-heating-oceans-study
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s42003-024-06707-3As Bolivia wildfires rage, smoke turns day into night
[Bolivia] is on track for a record year of fires, exacerbated by drought and land clearances linked to booming production of cattle and grains, especially around the wealthy farm city of Santa Cruz ... people were having breathing problems, eye issues and headaches due to the smoke, while school classes had been suspended. "The sun practically has an orange hue, it looks just like the moon at night" ... Wilber Melgar, from an Indigenous community in the region of Beni to the north of Santa Cruz that has also been hard hit by the fire, blamed ranchers for clearing large areas of land for grazing, at times with slash and burn methods. "Right now the Amazon is burning," he said. Neighboring Brazil is also suffering a torrid beginning to the fire season, with blazes leaving major cities cloaked in smoke and huge swathes of Amazon rainforest there in flames. The wider region is seeing the worst fires since 2010.
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2024-09-11/as-bolivia-wildfires-rage-smoke-turns-day-into-nightEntire Earth vibrated for nine days after climate-triggered mega-tsunami
A landslide and mega-tsunami in Greenland in September 2023, triggered by the climate crisis, caused the entire Earth to vibrate for nine days, a scientific investigation has found. The seismic event was detected by earthquake sensors around the world but was so completely unprecedented that the researchers initially had no idea what had caused it. Having now solved the mystery, the scientists said it showed how global heating was already having planetary-scale impacts and that major landslides were possible in places previously believed to be stable as temperatures rapidly rose. The collapse of a 1,200-metre-high mountain peak into the remote Dickson fjord happened on 16 September 2023 after the melting glacier below was no longer able to hold up the rock face. It triggered an initial wave 200 metres high and the subsequent sloshing of water back and forth in the twisty fjord sent seismic waves through the planet for more than a week.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/sep/12/entire-earth-vibrated-climate-triggered-mega-tsunami
see also https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/09/bizarre-nine-day-seismic-signal-caused-by-epic-landslide-in-greenland/
reporting on a study at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adm9247Impacts of AMOC Collapse on Monsoon Rainfall: A Multi-Model Comparison
Impacts persist for at least 100 years, and so are irreversible over at least a human lifetime
A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) would have substantial impacts on global precipitation patterns, especially in the vulnerable tropical monsoon regions [and] would cause a major rearrangement of all tropical monsoon systems. Four state-of-the-art climate models show remarkable agreement on the effects of an AMOC collapse ... evidence that the recent AMOC weakening might be associated with a decrease of stability of the current circulation mode has been identified in sea-surface temperature and salinity based fingerprints.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023EF003959Antarctic meltwater reduces AMOC through oceanic freshwater transport and atmospheric teleconnections
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is an important component of the climate system because of its role in the heat transport ... Here, we investigate the impact of Antarctic ice sheet meltwater on the AMOC. The meltwater over the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean is transported to the east and, after passing the Drake Passage, travels northward reaching the North Atlantic. Furthermore, Southern Ocean cooling induces a northward shift of the Intertropical. Consequently, the reduced salinity weakens the AMOC. Additional experiments, in which the duration period of freshwater hosing was varied while keeping its total amount constant, indicate that the amplitude and the duration of the meltwater play crucial roles in determining the degree of reduction in the AMOC.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01670-7‘It’s time to give up on normal’: what [Australia] winter’s weird weather means for the warm months ahead
The last 12 months have provided all the evidence we need that our climate is wobbling on its rails
Earth’s climate has become dangerously unstable [and] weather conditions can turn on a dime. This August was a case in point. At month’s end, much of Australia was hit by a record-breaking heatwave and damaging winds – conditions that can dry out a green landscape with devastating efficiency, turning it into fuel for a bushfire. The dangerous fire weather that struck Sydney this week came as a surprise to many. But in reality, these abnormal conditions are the new normal ... we are seeing climate instability layering over itself: background dryness, wet seasons bringing a proliferation of fuels, and above-average temperatures. Eventually we’ll get unlucky and experience extremely strong winds thrown into the mix. That’s when catastrophic fires are most likely to occur.
https://theconversation.com/its-time-to-give-up-on-normal-what-winters-weird-weather-means-for-the-warm-months-ahead-237857The planet endures its hottest summer on record — for the second straight year
Summer broke global heat records for the second straight year, scientists have confirmed — putting 2024 firmly on track to be the hottest year in recorded history ... the latest in a slew of global heat records to fall but will not be the last, scientists warn ... Even in the Southern Hemisphere’s winter, heat has been extreme. Last month, Australia broke its national record for the hottest August day, clocking a temperature of 41.6 degrees Celsius (106.9 Fahrenheit). Meanwhile, temperatures in parts of Antarctica climbed 50 degrees Fahrenheit above normal in July. The Copernicus data confirms what seemed likely after the planet experienced its hottest June on record, followed in July by its hottest single days on record ... the 12 months from September 2023 to August 2024 were the hottest on record for any year-long period, and 1.64 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial levels.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/05/climate/hottest-summer-record-copernicus/index.htmlProject Bison fails. What’s next for the carbon removal megaproject?
The Wyoming venture’s collapse raises questions about the fledgling direct air capture industry The company said it was unable to secure enough carbon emissions-free energy to operate the direct air capture megaproject known as Project Bison, which was intended to remove 5 million tons of CO2 annually by 2030 [due] to competition from other energy-hungry customers such as data center operators and cryptocurrency miners, which have been embraced in Wyoming. Corless said his company intends to build its first commercial-scale project outside of the Cowboy State, which gets more than 70 percent of its electricity from coal-fired power plants ... The largest direct air capture [DAC or CCS] plant in operation is Climeworks’ Mammoth facility in Iceland, which is capable of removing up to 36,000 tons of CO2 annually [about one-millionth of 2023 global annual CO2 emissions] ... Carbon Capture has already sold more than 89,000 tons of carbon removals to Microsoft, Boston Consulting Group and other major corporations, according to CDR.fyi, an industry data clearinghouse. The startup said it would deliver on those commitments in part via a pilot plant it’s planning to open in 2025 that will be capable of removing 2,000 tons of CO2 annually.
https://www.eenews.net/articles/project-bison-fails-whats-next-for-the-carbon-removal-megaproject/The Midwest and Great Plains are gearing up for water fights fueled by climate change
The Missouri River irrigates crops, cools the systems at nuclear and coal power plants and quenches millions of Missourians’ thirst as the largest source of drinking water in the state. While some may take it for granted, Missouri state Rep. Jamie Burger is watching the fights over water in the Western U.S. closely. He worries that eventually people will come seeking Missouri’s abundant water resources. Last legislative session, he introduced a bill to ban most exports of water from the state. “We have to get something into play, because the western states at some point in time will be coming after Missouri's water,” Burger said ... Water law experts say this type of legislative move is a classic warning shot that could signal a more contentious future over water in the Midwest and Great Plains. Periodic courtroom dramas over water may become more common as climate change sets up conditions that could lead to more water scarcity in the north central US. “We're already seeing some chest thumping among some of these states,” said Burke Griggs, a professor of law at Washburn University in Topeka, Kansas ... research has shown the line that marks the start of the arid west might already be moving east as the climate changes. And there are tribal nations throughout the Midwest who were promised water in treaties with the U.S. more than a century ago. “And the funny thing about it is, the tribes have a bigger water right than the states do.” [Griggs] said it’s important to bring everyone to the table, especially groups that were historically left out of water negotiations, like sovereign Native American tribes and the ecosystems that rely on these rivers.
https://nebraskapublicmedia.org/en/news/news-articles/the-midwest-and-great-plains-are-gearing-up-for-water-fights-fueled-by-climate-change/Mississippi River continues to trend lower; draft restrictions in place for shipping
“The gauge at Memphis dropped to the low water threshold of minus 5 feet on Aug. 30,” said Scott Stiles, extension economics program associate for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture. “The last two years, the U.S. Coast Guard initiated a 9-foot draft requirement when river levels fall below the low water threshold ... “If barge drafts are reduced from 12 feet to 9 feet, each barge would be hauling 20,000 fewer bushels of soybeans,” Stiles said. “Grain terminals will need more barges or an alternative means of hauling such as truck or rail ... the Memphis gauge is lower now than it was at this time last year when the river eventually dropped to record lows,” Stiles said. “In October 2023, the Mississippi River reached a level of minus 11.91 feet on the Memphis gauge, which is the lowest since records began” ... Marty Hettel of American Commercial Barge Line, said “It looks like we will once again see some drastic, extreme low-water conditions on the Lower Mississippi River for the third year in a row.”
https://www.uaex.uada.edu/media-resources/news/2024/september2024/09-05-2024-ark-miss-river-trends-lower.aspxThe Impact of Neonicotinoid Pesticides on Pollinators and the Global Economy
European Union, Switzerland, and the US states of New Jersey, Maine, and Nevada have all placed severely restrictive bans on types of neonicotinoids. Yet trade in neonicotinoids abounds, flowing from many countries that ban their use to those that do not. For instance, in 2022, the European Union exported 81,615 tons of 41 pesticides banned within the bloc; such exports are predominantly sent to lower- and middle-income countries, with Brazil as the largest recipient ... neonicotinoids [pose] a catastrophic danger to bees, birds, and the environment. Infused with pesticides, the crops may produce toxic pollen that poisons pollinators and contaminates ground and surface water. Neonicotinoids target insects’ nervous systems, causing shaking, paralysis, and death. In addition to the pollinators, neonicotinoids harm plant-eating mammals and plants dependent on insect pollinators. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released an assessment in 2023 indicating that over 200 endangered animals and plants enumerated in the Endangered Species Act are in severe danger of being driven extinct due to neonicotinoids.
https://hir.harvard.edu/buzzing-dangers-the-impact-of-neonicotinoid-pesticides-on-pollinators-and-the-global-economy/Brazil wildfires worsened by 'mega drought,' extreme heat
Over the last week, some 2,700 fires have ripped through Brazil's southern Sao Paulo state. "We had an explosive combination of three factors: high temperature, very strong winds and very low relative humidity in the last few days," said Sao Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas. Those conditions have seen Sao Paulo state and the Amazon rainforest, further north, suffering the worst fire season in decades [and] have also fueled the record fires in the Cerrado Plateau, a tropical savanna, and the Pantanal, the world's largest tropical wetland, a biodiverse area packed full of different species of plants and animals. The Pantanal, located between the Amazon and Sao Paulo, lost some 600,000 hectares to the flames in June, an area the size of Luxembourg ... "We are accelerating the climate collapse," said Gatti, stressing that deforestation was doing more to increase temperatures in the Amazon than global climate change. "The forest that remains is no longer the same; it's like the Amazon is sick" ... The World Resources Institute reports that wildfires around the world are getting worse, destroying twice as many trees as they were 20 years ago ... "Things are changing very rapidly," said Peres, outlining how increased fires and drought were putting water and food security at risk, wiping out biodiversity and harming human health. He pointed out that every time a forest burns, it sets the stage for "more frequent and more intensive fires the next time," as more of the vegetation dies and becomes fuel for the next wildfire. "By the time that forest burns the third time, then you no longer have a forest ... the damage that this is doing, both in terms of biodiversity loss and loss in carbon storage, is massive."
https://www.dw.com/en/brazil-wildfires-made-worse-by-drought-extreme-heat/a-70088581
reporting on a study at https://www.wri.org/insights/global-trends-forest-firesThe World’s Largest Wetland Is Burning, and Rare Animals Are Dying
The Pantanal is a maze of rivers, forests and marshlands that sprawl over 68,000 square miles, an area 20 times the size of the Everglades. About 80 percent lies within Brazil, with the rest in Bolivia and Paraguay. Usually flooded for much of the year, the Pantanal in recent years has been parched by a string of severe droughts that scientists have linked to deforestation and climate change ... “We’re really nervous watching this unfold,” said Mr. Barreto, who is working on the front lines of the rescue efforts inside the Pantanal. “The outlook is not good” ... flames from the fires have reached tree crowns and scorched 80 percent of a crucial nesting area ... blazes have also disrupted food chains, leaving behind a barren landscape devoid of water and essential food sources.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/27/world/americas/pantanal-wildfires-wildlife.htmlEven desert plants known for their resilience are burning and dying in the heat
The Southwest is no stranger to sweltering conditions, and desert plants and trees are drought-resistant and heat-tolerant. Arid, harsh environments are where they thrive. But as climate change makes heat waves more frequent, intense and long-lasting, experts say the increasingly severe conditions are testing some iconic desert plants known for their resilience — including saguaro cacti and agave. “We saw damage to plants this summer that had never showed heat stress before” ... Las Vegas has smashed several heat records already this summer, including its hottest day in recorded history on July 7, when the temperature reached 120 degrees Fahrenheit. A record streak of seven straight days at or above 115 F followed. Temperatures for most of June, July and August stayed in the triple digits, with little relief even at night. “The heat we’re seeing now is a new paradigm. It’s like the ground is shifting beneath our feet,” Schilling said ... Last year, when Phoenix endured its hottest summer in recorded history — with a record 31 straight days of temperatures at or above 110 F — stark images emerged of saguaro cacti that had dropped their signature arms or tipped over completely. This year has not brought much relief. “It’s possible that we’re looking at this exponential curve of mortality” ... “They’re one of the hardiest plants in the desert — they are very robust,” Kemppinen said. “The fact that they seem to be responding so negatively to extreme heat events and to climate change is particularly worrisome.”
https://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/desert-plants-burning-dying-heat-agave-saguaro-cacti-rcna166834Bolivian farmers pack up and flee as wildfires burn woodland
The southern hemisphere nation has recorded the largest number of outbreaks of wildfires in 14 years, with 3 million hectares (7.5 million acres) of land burned already this year and peak fire season still ahead. Neighboring Brazil is also suffering a torrid beginning to the season, with blazes in major cities and in the Amazon rainforest off to their worst start in 20 years, after a record drought aggravated by global warming ... Bolivia has registered 36,800 fire outbreaks so far this year, second only to a record year for blazes in 2010, according to satellite data from Brazil's space research agency Inpe, which monitors fires across the continent ... South America overall is bracing for an intense fire season that usually peaks in August and September before spring rains arrive. Unusually early and intense fires followed a drought that has dried out vegetation in much of the region. "We live from agriculture and now nothing grows, everything is dry," said Maria Suarez Moconho, an Indigenous community chief who leads the group of volunteers and said conditions were having a devastating impact on water and food supplies. "The fire burns everything."
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/bolivian-farmers-pack-up-flee-wildfires-burn-woodland-2024-08-29Why is Lapland on fire? Finland’s far north set for record-breakingly hot summer
July brought unusually hot temperatures throughout the country, the Finnish Meteorological Institute says, but the heat was particularly pronounced in northern Finland. The average monthly temperature in the northern part of the country was between 15.5 and 18C, around 2 to 3.4 degrees above the average temperature. Mika Rantanen, a researcher at the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), told Finnish news site YLE News that Lapland is on track for its warmest summer yet ... Hotter temperatures, driven by climate change, are linked to an increased risk of wildfires. In Finnish Lapland’s Inari region, locals and wildlife have suffered 17 fires this summer so far. Timo Nyholm, duty fire officer at the Lapland Rescue Department, has said that’s well above the seasonal average of 10. He expects the summer total to blaze past 20 fires. Hotter temperatures make plants drier and stimulate plant growth, meaning there is more fuel for fires to burn. "Climate change is extending the fire season,” [said] FMI researcher Outi Kinnunen.
https://www.euronews.com/green/2024/08/27/why-is-lapland-on-fire-finlands-far-north-set-for-record-breakingly-hot-summerCanada’s 2023 wildfires released more greenhouse gases than most countries
Only China, India and the United States released more carbon emissions
If Canada’s wildfires were ranked alongside countries, they would have been the world’s fourth-largest emitter ... the climate crisis, driven by the burning of fossil fuels, is leading to drier and hotter conditions, driving extreme wildfires. The 2023 fires burned 15m hectares (37m acres) across Canada, or about 4% of its forests. The findings add to concerns about dependence on the world’s forests to act as a long-term carbon sink for industrial emissions when instead they could be aggravating the problem as they catch fire.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/29/canada-wildfires-carbon-emissions
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07878-zRecord Rainfall Spoils Crops in China, Rattling Its Leaders
After weeks of drought, farmers in the typically arid agricultural belt in northern China were ill prepared for the torrential rain that inundated fields earlier this summer and decimated their crops ... downpours and an overflowing reservoir had turned soil into sludge unfit for growing plants. Across the country, a shift in weather patterns has caught people off guard, with floods arriving two months earlier than usual in the south and then extending to northern and eastern provinces that are more accustomed to summer drought ... While climate change is upending food supply chains everywhere, it is a particularly sensitive issue in China, where famines have historically led to unrest ... China is already the world’s largest food importer and needs to feed almost one-sixth of the world’s population with less than one-tenth of the world’s arable land, which has shrunk and degraded with heavy fertilizer use and pollution ... More rivers flooded this year than any other since records in China began ... this year also recorded its hottest July since at least 1961. Weather phenomena are expected to become more frequent ... China suffered more than $10 billion in losses from natural disasters in July, some 90 percent of which was caused by heavy rain and floods.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/02/world/asia/china-rainfall-crops.htmlBest-case scenario for climate change is now 1.6°C of warming
In fact, the researchers say it is more likely than not that we won’t be able to limit warming to 1.6°C
Humanity’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, which has been totemic in climate policy for the past decade, is now almost certainly now out of reach ... “1.5°C without overshoot is not attainable,” says Christoph Bertram at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research in Germany. Bertram and his colleagues came to this conclusion by running a series of models that accounted for realistic constraints in rolling out green technologies and implementing climate policies, as well as “enabling factors”, such as reduction in energy demand. Green technologies like renewable energy have taken off dramatically in recent years, but the key constraint to rapid climate action is the ability of governments to roll out carbon-limiting policies such as carbon taxes, the team found. Some countries simply don’t have the infrastructure or the bureaucracy to effectively enforce policies like carbon pricing, says Bertram. “Even if we see a massive shift in the coming years politically, we still can’t get around these hard facts,” he says. “It takes regulation for some of these solutions and you can’t expect all countries to have perfect regulation” ... Zeke Hausfather at US non-profit Berkeley Earth says the paper “more or less states what has become a largely unspoken consensus in the community: that it’s too late to prevent warming from exceeding 1.5°C in the coming decades”.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2444314-best-case-scenario-for-climate-change-is-now-1-6c-of-warming/
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02073-4UN Interconnected Disaster Risks report
The 2023 report analyses six interconnected climate risk tipping points, representing immediate and increasing risks across the world
A tower made of building blocks might remain standing at first if you remove one piece at a time, but instability slowly builds in until you remove one block too many and it topples over ... This is called a tipping point, and tipping points can have irreversible, catastrophic impacts for people and the planet ... Many new risks emerge when and where our physical and natural worlds interconnect with human society. Some tipping points trigger abrupt changes in our life-sustaining systems that can shake the foundations of our societies. This is why the 2023 edition of the Interconnected Disaster Risks report proposes a new category of tipping points: risk tipping points ... the moment at which a given socioecological system is no longer able to buffer risks and provide its expected functions, after which the risk of catastrophic impacts to these systems increases substantially. Today, we are moving perilously close to the brink of multiple risk tipping points. Human actions are behind this rapid and fundamental change to the planet. We are introducing new risks and amplifying existing ones ... In an interconnected world the impacts of risk tipping points such as this are felt globally, as they cause ripple effects through food systems, the economy and the environment. They affect the very structure of our society ... Actions that affect one system will likely have consequences on another, so we must avoid working in silos and instead look at the world as one connected system.
https://interconnectedrisks.org/‘Like doomsday’: why have salmon deserted Norway’s rivers – and will they ever return?
This spring the salmon, particularly the medium and larger-sized fish, did not come back from the ocean, raising such alarm over the collapse of the salmon population that the [Gaula] river, along with dozens of others in central and southern Norway, was abruptly closed [to fishing] for the first time ... Scientists have been warning of the rapidly declining North Atlantic salmon population for years [and] now the latest figures show Atlantic salmon stocks are at a historic low. Experts say the species is at imminent threat from salmon farming, which has led to escapes (including of sick fish), a dramatic rise in sea lice, and could result in wild salmon being replaced entirely by a hybrid species ... While the broader factors linked to the climate crisis are not something that Norway can quickly do something about, the human-made impact of fish farming is something that could be swiftly acted upon, says Forseth. He is calling for a completely different approach to fish-farm management, separating farmed and wild fish populations. Open-net farming at sea has, he believes, reached its “biological limit” ... Bogen says she’s not surprised. “Something happened in 2023, but the decline has been obvious for years and years and all the research is showing all the same trends,” she says.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/aug/29/like-doomsday-why-have-salmon-deserted-norway-rivers-and-will-they-ever-returnViolence over water is on the rise globally. A record number of conflicts erupted in 2023
Water-related conflicts increased 50% in 2023
Water-related disputes — ranging from quarrels over water sources to protests over lack of clean water — have erupted into violence with alarming frequency ... “The rise is very dramatic and disturbing,” said Peter Gleick, Pacific Institute co-founder and senior fellow. The upsurge in violence, he said, reflects continuing disputes over control and access to scarce water resources, growing pressures on supplies driven by population growth and climate change, and ongoing attacks on water infrastructure where war and violence are widespread, especially in the Middle East and Ukraine. Details of last year’s incidents have been included in the latest update of the Pacific Institute’s Water Conflict Chronology, a comprehensive global database on water-related violence ... In many parts of the world, a key problem is the long-standing failure to provide people access to clean water and sanitation. (One new study estimates that 4.4 billion people worldwide don’t have access to safely managed drinking water services.) ... “There’s always going to be violence for political reasons or economic reasons or ideological reasons, but there is no reason why water should be a factor in that violence, and we have to take water out of the equation,” Gleick said.
https://www.latimes.com/environment/newsletter/2024-08-22/boiling-point-water-conflicts-increasing-boiling-point
reporting on a study at https://www.worldwater.org/water-conflict/What is the hottest temperature humans can survive? These labs are redefining the limit
The threshold for survival in heat is lower than thought
Heat thresholds for humans have been poorly defined in part because public-health bodies have over-relied on a theoretical study published in 2010, says Jay. In that paper, researchers used mathematical models to define the ‘wet-bulb temperature’ (WBT) at which a young, healthy person would die after six hours. WBT is a measure that scientists use when studying heat stress because it accounts for the effects of heat and humidity. The models churned out a WBT of 35 °C as the limit of human survival. At that threshold, the body’s core temperature would rise uncontrollably. But the model treated the human body as an unclothed object that doesn’t sweat or move, making the result less applicable to the real world. Despite this, countless public-health bodies adopted it — even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change — reducing the motivation to obtain a more relevant number, says Jay. “It’s a basic physical model with many limitations — but nearly everyone’s using this.” In a 2021 study, Kenney and his colleagues provided a better estimate: a WBT survival limit of around 31 °C. They calculated it by tracking the core body temperature of young, healthy people under different combinations of temperature and humidity while they were cycling. “You do still see the 35 °C wet-bulb temperature tossed around, but people are starting to come around to the limit defined by Kenney’s lab,” says Robert Meade, a heat and health researcher at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-02422-5Evaluation of climate policy measures over two decades finds many have failed to achieve necessary emissions reductions
An international research team has unveiled the first comprehensive global evaluation of 1,500 climate policy measures from 41 countries across six continents. Published in the journal Science, this study provides a detailed impact analysis of the wide range of climate policy measures implemented over the last two decades. The findings reveal a sobering reality: many policy measures have failed to achieve the necessary scale of emissions reductions. Only 63 cases of successful climate policies, each leading to average emission reductions of [only] 19%, were identified.
https://phys.org/news/2024-08-climate-policy-decades-emissions-reductions.html
reporting on a study at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adl6547‘Heat engine’ fuelled by climate crisis bringing blast of summer weather to Australian winter
Australia is on track to face its hottest August on record as a global heating-fuelled “heat engine” brings spring and summer warmth to Australia’s winter ... the unseasonably warm weather was coming from a “heat engine” in Australia’s red centre, where clear skies in the coming week would drive maximum temperatures towards 40C, more than 10C above average ... Temperatures across the country are rising higher and earlier than usual, putting August averages comfortably above the long-term mean ... the heat buildup was typical of spring and summer but was happening earlier and more intensely as global heating made winter shorter ... Perkins-Kirkpatrick warned Australians to expect earlier, more intense winter heat in future. The lengthening of spring and summer is only going to intensify with climate change,” she said.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/aug/23/australia-weather-forecast-august-heat-records-bom-adelaide-brisbane-sydney-melbourneAustralia’s highest winter temperature on record
An unseasonably hot airmass just produced the highest wintertime temperature ever recorded in Australia. A weather station at Yampi Sound in WA’s Kimberley region registered a temperature of 41.6°C shortly after 3:30pm AWST on Monday, August 26 ... the latest in a series of record-breaking winter temperatures over the past few days. South Australia set new winter maximum temperature records on both Friday and Saturday and a new winter minimum temperature record on Sunday morning. With the hot air mass likely to stick around northwestern Australia for the next few days, we should see more temperatures over 40°C.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/australias-highest-winter-temperature-on-record/1889795Ecosystems study finds the higher the environmental stress, the lower the resistance to global change
As the number of global change factors increases, terrestrial ecosystems become more sensitive to the impacts of global change. The results, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, show that the resistance of our ecosystems to global change decreases significantly as the number of environmental stressors increases, especially when this stress is sustained over time ... "Terrestrial ecosystems are subject to a myriad of climate change and environmental degradation factors, including global warming, drought processes, atmospheric pollution, fires or overgrazing among many others ... Our research shows that as the number of [factors] increases, these ecosystems become more and more sensitive and reduce their natural capacity to resist the impacts of environmental perturbations."
https://phys.org/news/2024-08-ecosystems-higher-environmental-stress-resistance.html
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-024-01518-xIs the Atlantic Overturning Circulation Approaching a Tipping Point?
https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2024.501Are You Sure Your House Is Worth That Much?
Climate risk is still not being priced into American homeownership
Across the United States, homeowner’s insurance is getting more expensive ... Insurers, being in the business of risk assessment, are a good bellwether of the state of reality, and because of climate change, Americans’ homes are not as safe from harm, statistically speaking, as they once were ... Many economists now think that, because home prices don’t yet reflect climate reality, a new housing bubble is growing. How much bigger it gets will determine how much havoc it will wreak when it inevitably pops ... Jesse Gourevitch, an environmental economist at the Environmental Defense Fund and a co-author on the 2023 paper, was more direct: We’re in a bubble, and whether it deflates slowly, causing some economic pain, or pops suddenly, shocking the country’s economic system, will come down to policy choices that governments make now ... Unlike the housing bubble of the previous recession, this one won’t leave homes to gain back their value over time. The onslaught of wildfires and hurricanes likely won’t reverse course, so neither will uninsurability ... it could lead to mortgage-market collapse: Banks won’t issue mortgages on homes that can’t get insurance coverage.
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2024/08/climate-change-risk-homeowners-housing-bubble/679559/The uninsurable world Part 1: What climate change is costing homeowners
Global warming is making extreme weather events such as storms, floods and wildfires more frequent and severe ... As firms exit some areas and demand higher premiums in others, affordable home insurance cover — for many an essential annual outlay, often a condition of their mortgage debt — is getting harder to secure. The global picture explains why. A run of four consecutive years when overall insurance losses from natural catastrophes have topped $100bn, previously the mark of a remarkably bad year, has spooked executives ... this is adding greater urgency and attention to a challenge long predicted by environmental activists: that climate change will make parts of the world uninsurable.
https://www.ft.com/content/ed3a1bb9-e329-4e18-89de-9db90eaadc0bThe uninsurable world Part 2: How the market fell behind on climate change
The 1970s paper by Munich Re, now the largest in the industry, pointed to global warming, polar melt and other environmental shifts as needing further study, “especially as — as far as we know — its conceivable impact on the long-range risk trend has hardly been examined to date”. Today, the effect of climate change fuelling natural catastrophes such as floods and wildfires is evident, and insurance companies are scrambling ... Insurance models “struggle to factor, with any precision, the probabilities that are accruing from climate change”, said Paula Jarzabkowski, an expert on risk at the University of Queensland.
https://www.ft.com/content/b4bf187a-1040-4a28-9f9e-fa8c4603ed1bThe uninsurable world Part 3: Rethinking how to cover for climate damage
The worldwide patchwork of last-resort insurance now provided by government schemes alone will not be sufficient. “A lot of what we have already . . . hasn’t grown up to fix the problem we’re in.” [But] while ever more granular analysis might allow some properties to be underwritten that could not be otherwise, it could also widen the divide between those properties and people viewed as “good risks” and “bad risks”.
https://www.ft.com/content/272fac7a-9d8f-4afe-a489-0ea6b5837ee5State of the Climate
An international, peer-reviewed publication released each summer, the State of the Climate is the authoritative annual summary of the global climate published as a supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. The report, compiled by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, is based on contributions from scientists from around the world. It provides a detailed update on global climate indicators, notable weather events, and other data collected by environmental monitoring stations and instruments located on land, water, ice, and in space.
https://www.ametsoc.org/index.cfm/ams/publications/bulletin-of-the-american-meteorological-society-bams/state-of-the-climate/When will climate change turn life in the U.S. upside down?
Intensifying weather and an insurance crisis are likely to cause significant disruption within the next 15 years
"Two years on from Glasgow and our warming estimates for government action have barely moved" ... the impacts of climate change will be apocalyptic for many nations and people ... the fractional contribution of climate change to disaster losses [is] likely to increase rapidly, making the insurance crisis accelerate. A 2023 study drew attention to a massive real estate bubble [which] will likely continue to grow as sea levels rise, storms dump heavier rains, and unwise risky development continues ... "The path we are on today, though — the path that our current political system makes likely — is the path of Wholly Irrational and Completely Ad-Hoc Pirate Capitalism: Increasing climate change-induced disasters cause panic among homeowners as a class; politicians rush to grab dollars to enable everyone to live the same as they are now for as long as possible; and eventually the whole thing crashes into the wall of reality in a way that causes uncontainable, national pain"... Crawford addressed the issue in a 2024 essay, “Who ends up holding the bag when risky real estate markets collapse?” [which] concluded: “2025 or 2026 is when things give way and it becomes very difficult to offload houses and buildings in risky places where mortgages are suddenly hard to get, much less insurance” ... Steffen predicts the real estate [bubble] will pop within five years (10 at the most) ... [Lloyd's] estimated that a “major” food shock scenario costing $3 trillion globally over a five-year period had a 2.3% chance of happening per year. Over a 30-year period, those odds equate to about a 50% probability of occurrence — assuming the risks are not increasing each year, which, in fact, they are.
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/08/when-will-climate-change-turn-life-in-the-u-s-upside-down/Humans to push further into wildlife habitats across more than 50% of land by 2070 – study
Humans have already transformed or occupied between 70% and 75% of the world’s land. Research published in Science Advances on Wednesday found the overlap between human and wildlife populations is expected to increase ... As humans and animals share increasingly crowded landscapes, the bigger overlap could result in higher potential for disease transmission, biodiversity loss, animals being killed by people and wildlife eating livestock and crops, the researchers said. Biodiversity loss is the leading driver of infectious disease outbreaks. About 75% of emerging diseases in humans are zoonotic, meaning they can be passed from animals to humans.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/aug/21/humans-to-push-further-into-wildlife-habitats-across-more-than-50-of-land-by-2070-study-aoe
reporting on a study at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adp7706Plastic 'Bombardment' Putting Antarctica at Risk From Hitchhiking Invaders
Antarctica's unique ecosystems are increasingly at risk from non-native marine species and pollution carried from Southern Hemisphere landmasses, according to a new study published in Global Change Biology. Researchers have revealed that floating debris, including plastics and organic materials, can transport invasive species to Antarctic waters from a broader range of sources than previously understood. The study reveals that non-native species, particularly small marine invertebrates, can hitch a ride on floating objects like kelp, driftwood, pumice and plastic, reaching the Antarctic coastline not only from remote Southern Ocean islands but also from as far afield as Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, and South America.
https://www.newsweek.com/plastic-pollution-antarctica-marine-ecosystem-1942477
reporting on a study at https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.17467Microplastics are infiltrating brain tissue, studies show: ‘There’s nowhere left untouched’
Microplastics are accumulating in critical human organs, including the brain, leading researchers to call for more urgent actions to rein in plastic pollution. Studies have detected tiny shards and specks of plastics in human lungs, placentas, reproductive organs, livers, kidneys, knee and elbow joints, blood vessels and bone marrow [and] suggest they could increase the risk of various conditions such as oxidative stress, which can lead to cell damage and inflammation, as well as cardiovascular disease. Animal studies have also linked microplastics to fertility issues, various cancers, a disrupted endocrine and immune system, and impaired learning and memory ... “It’s pretty alarming,” Campen said. “There’s much more plastic in our brains than I ever would have imagined or been comfortable with” ... The paper also found the quantity of microplastics in brain samples from 2024 was about 50% higher from the total in samples that date to 2016, suggesting the concentration of microplastics found in human brains is rising at a similar rate to that found in the environment.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/aug/21/microplastics-brain-pollution-healthHalfway through ‘danger season,’ nearly all of America has been touched by extreme weather
So far this [summer], 99% of the country’s population has been touched by at least one extreme weather alert ... a new reality is emerging for millions of Americans: a time of year once defined by lazy afternoons, swimming pools and backyard barbecues is increasingly marked by calamity ... “The global and continental indicators really are blinking red that this is a year of climate change impacts,” Hall said. “We have built our infrastructure for a different world, and in some ways we weren’t even that well adapted to the world that we had,” he said. “And now we have a new climate.” The effect is expected to persist next summer, and certainly in summers to come.
https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2024-08-16/extreme-weather-touches-most-of-america-this-danger-seasonA Trip to One of the Hottest Cities on the Planet
Killer Heat in Lahore Pakistan
The human cooling system is specific to our species. It is not some standard off-the-shelf mammalian kit. Our prehuman ancestors may have panted out their heat like dogs and foxes, or, I suppose, rolled around in mud like pigs, but we sweat from millions of pores spread across our naked skin. This system functions only within a tiny range of temperatures that maxes out at a wet-bulb temperature of 95 degrees. Many places on Earth, including Lahore, already get hotter than that for long stretches that will only lengthen in the years to come ... It is the city’s poor who are most often carried to Muhammad’s heat counter, people who can’t afford to fly north to the mountains or to London in high summer. They’re bricklayers, railroad workers who toil on exposed platforms, fruit hawkers, beggars. Or they’re women like Shehzad, who spend the day’s hot hours doing household work in small rooms, without so much as an electric fan.
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2024/08/extreme-heat-pakistan-lahore/679433/Mediterranean Sea reaches highest surface temperature ever recorded
"The maximum sea surface temperature record was broken in the Mediterranean Sea yesterday ... with a daily median of 28.90C," Spain's leading institute of marine sciences said. The preliminary readings for 2024 come from satellite data from the European Copernicus Observatory [and] means that for two successive summers the Mediterranean will have been warmer than during the exceptional summer heatwave of 2003 ... The Mediterranean region has long been classified as a hotspot of climate change. Oceans have absorbed 90 percent of the excess heat produced by human activity since the dawn of the industrial age, according to scientists. This excess heat continues to accumulate.
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240816-mediterranean-sea-reaches-highest-surface-temperature-ever-recorded-climate-changeDrought Parches Mexico
“Extreme” and “exceptional” drought, as classified by the North American Drought Monitor, now afflicts several states in Mexico. States experiencing these categories of drought include Sonora, Chihuahua, Sinaloa, and Durango in northern Mexico, as well as Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosí, Guanajuato, Querétaro, and Hidalgo farther south. As the drought persists, it is parching crops, exacerbating fires, and straining water systems throughout the country. Concerns about water supplies have become particularly acute in Mexico City, the capital city of 19 million people, where reservoirs have dipped to historically low levels and groundwater aquifers are nearly depleted ... The lack of water has prompted officials to start reducing the amount of water the system delivers to Mexico City, and some analysts warn that many taps in the city could run dry in the coming months.
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/152908/drought-parches-mexico38 trillion dollars in damages each year: World economy already committed to income reduction of 19% due to climate change
Even if CO2 emissions were to be drastically cut down starting today, the world economy is already committed to an income reduction of 19% until 2050 due to climate change, a new study published in “Nature” finds. These damages are six times larger than the mitigation costs needed to limit global warming to two degrees. Based on empirical data from more than 1,600 regions worldwide over the past 40 years, scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) assessed future impacts of changing climatic conditions on economic growth and their persistence ... “Our analysis shows that climate change will cause massive economic damages within the next 25 years in almost all countries around the world, [including] in highly-developed ones such as Germany, France and the United States,” says PIK scientist Leonie Wenz who led the study. ”We have to cut down our emissions drastically and immediately – if not, economic losses will become even bigger [which] clearly shows that protecting our climate is much cheaper than not doing so.”
https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/38-trillion-dollars-in-damages-each-year-world-economy-already-committed-to-income-reduction-of-19-due-to-climate-change
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07219-0Greece evacuates hospitals and homes as wildfires rage near Athens
Residents of the historic town of Marathon, 40 kilometres (25 miles) east of Athens, were among those ordered to evacuate Sunday. "Everything is burning," said Giorgos Tsevas, a resident of Polydendri village. The Mediterranean country is exceptionally vulnerable to summer blazes, with this season seeing fires burn daily. After the warmest winter on record, Greece also experienced its hottest June and July since reliable data collection began in 1960. Scientists warn that human-induced fossil fuel emissions are worsening the length, frequency and intensity of heatwaves across the world. The rising temperatures are leading to longer wildfire seasons and increasing the area burnt in the flames, according to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240812-residents-flee-as-greece-wildfires-rage-despite-superhuman-efforts‘It made me cry’: photos taken 15 years apart show melting Swiss glaciers
A tourist has posted “staggering” photos of himself and his wife at the same spot in the Swiss Alps almost exactly 15 years apart, in a pair of photos that highlight the speed with which global heating is melting glaciers. “It made me cry,” Porter said ... Hotter summers have forced people in mountainous regions to see slow-moving glaciers melt before their eyes. Switzerland has lost one-third of its glacier volume since 2000, according to official statistics, and 10% has disappeared in the last two years alone ... “It was a very impressive glacier,” said Sonia Seneviratne, a Swiss climate scientist and co-author of an IPCC report, who visited the glacier as a teenager. “It’s very sad to see those pictures because you see how large the changes have been.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/aug/06/it-made-me-cry-photos-taken-15-years-apart-show-melting-swiss-glaciersMining giant abandons plan to ditch coal as boss admits ‘cash is king’
The dramatic U-turn comes just months after Glencore announced plans to spin off its [coal] division ... The change in attitude is not limited to Glencore. Around the world, geopolitical crises have prompted investors to reassess blanket ESG rules banning them from supporting fossil fuel producers or defence companies. Many are also reluctant to turn their back on large profits. In the past year or so, oil companies such as Shell and BP have walked back some of their green energy commitments to refocus on fossil fuels. Shell’s chief executive said it would be “irresponsible” to shut down oil and gas production prematurely, as he has vowed to boost shareholder returns ... [coal] remains a hugely profitable business for Glencore. Demand reached a record high of 8.4bn tonnes in 2022, according to the International Energy Agency [and] propelled Glencore’s coal business to profits of $18bn that year, followed by profits of $8bn in 2023.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/08/07/glencore-drops-plan-to-ditch-coal-after-shareholder-u-turn/‘It’s devastating’: summer in Canada’s Arctic region brings severe heatwaves
A heatwave that is currently hovering over the [town of Inuvik] 130 miles (209km) north of the Arctic Circle threatens to shatter its all-time heat record [and] comes with a set of lingering worries, including the threat of wildfires and melting permafrost ... reaching 35C (95F) and passing an all-time record of 33C set last year. A weather alert from Environment Canada classified the heat as “severe”, warning of “significant threat to life or property”. The unseasonably warm temperatures mark the fourth heatwave of the season ... In recent years, Canada’s record-breaking wildfire seasons have enveloped a region of the country historically spared from widespread destruction ... This week, more than half of the territory was facing “extreme” fire risk, according to the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Canada is warming at a rate faster than the global average and in the Arctic, the warming is happening even faster.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/08/canada-arctic-region-heat-waveThe ocean losing its breath under the heatwaves
The world’s oceans are under threat from the prevalence of heatwaves caused by climate change ... heatwaves can trigger low-oxygen extreme events [with] a remarkable surge in the co-occurrence of marine heatwaves and low-oxygen extreme events. Hotspots of these concurrent stressors are identified in the study, indicating that this intensification is more pronounced in high-biomass regions than in those with relatively low biomass. The rise in the compound events is primarily attributable to long-term warming primarily induced by anthropogenic forcing ... Our findings suggest the ocean is losing its breath under the influence of heatwaves, potentially experiencing more severe damage than previously anticipated.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-51323-8France Set for Worst Wheat Harvest Since 1983
Ceaseless rains along with a lack of sunshine and low temperatures favoring diseases have impacted yields and the quality of the crops in the majority of growing regions. Weather extremes across Europe have hit grains this season, with excessive rains in northwestern Europe, and drought and high temperatures hurting corn crops in the east. French farmers called on the government to provide financial aid last week due to the catastrophic harvest.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-06/france-set-for-worst-wheat-harvest-since-1983-argus-saysChina floods hit rice, corn crops; trigger food inflation worries
Floods have damaged corn and rice crops in China's key northern grain-producing belt, traders and analysts said, with more rain in the forecast as another typhoon approaches, threatening to add to global food inflation pressures. The hit to China's cereal crops - the full extent of which is not yet clear - comes as consumers worldwide face tightening food supplies amid India's ban on rice exports last month and disruptions in Black Sea grain shipments caused by the war in Ukraine.
https://www.tbsnews.net/world/china-floods-hit-rice-corn-crops-trigger-food-inflation-worries-680850Chinese cities swelter in record heat, rice-growing regions under threat
Extreme heat baked megacities on the eastern Chinese seaboard and sharply pushed up demand for power to cool homes and offices, while scorching temperatures in China's interior stoked fears of damage to rice crops ... Hangzhou has sweltered under temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) since Friday as eastern and southern China endure stubbornly high temperatures. In Shanghai, the maximum load, or demand, on its power grid exceeded 40 million kilowatts for the first time on Aug. 2 as heat waves boosted electricity consumption in the city of nearly 25 million people. Shanghai leads the country in power load density, with the city's core Lujiazui area consuming twice the power per square kilometre compared to New York's Manhattan or Tokyo's Ginza district ... Maximum daily temperatures of 37 C to 39 C, and even above 40 C, are expected to hit parts of Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Anhui and Zhejiang through Sunday. The heat coincides with the harvest of the early-season rice crop in those provinces, spurring calls for increased irrigation to keep fields cool.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinese-megacity-limits-outdoor-lighting-record-heat-strains-grid-2024-08-06/Death Valley just recorded the hottest month ever observed on the planet
July was also the hottest month on record for dozens of other cities in the western United States Death Valley, Calif., registered an average July temperature of 108.5 degrees [F], the highest monthly value ever recorded among thousands of weather stations around the globe ... The Earth has set high temperature records over the past 13 months. Scientists say the warmth is linked to decades of global heating from human emissions of greenhouse gases. Death Valley’s high temperatures ranged from 111 to 129 degrees [F]. It reached at least 125 on nine consecutive days from July 4 to 12. At night, the mercury only dipped below 90 twice and remained in the triple digits three times.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/08/01/death-valley-just-recorded-hottest-month-ever-observed-planet/‘The Adriatic is becoming tropical’: Italian fishers struggle to adapt to warm sea
On a number of days in July, the sea temperature along Italy’s Adriatic coastline, which stretches from Trieste in the north to Capo d’Otranto in the south, reached a record 30C, and in some areas slightly surpassed that figure ... “A lot has changed in 50 years ... The Adriatic is becoming tropical. We are starting to see species of fish that were not previously there, such as swordfish, whereas various types of white fish, such as turbot, are almost extinct. There is no doubt that the [climatic] change is happening and it’s pointless trying to deny it.” Danovaro added that while the Adriatic has become much cleaner over the last 20 to 30 years, it has also become more depleted. “It produces less, and receives less nutrients [from the rivers], and then it suffers from these heatwaves ... it is starting to become more evident,” he said, pointing to the killing off of sea sponges and other organisms. “The Adriatic is becoming as tropical as the Maldives.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/04/adriatic-warming-sea-italy-fishers-mucilage-microalgaeAntarctic temperatures soar 50 degrees [F] above norm in long-lasting heat wave
Ground temperatures in East Antarctica have soared more than 50F (28 Celsius) above normal in the second major heat wave to afflict the region in the past two years ... an ominous example of the major temperature spikes this polar climate could experience more frequently in a warming world ... it covers a large section of East Antarctica, which makes up most of the continent. The heat wave comes in the middle of the Antarctic winter, so temperatures are still hovering around minus-20 Celsius. Still, the Antarctic temperature anomaly is the largest on the globe [and] a much larger deviation from the norm than usual. Atmospheric pressures over East Antarctica are also surging to “absolutely bonkers” levels, tweeted Ben Noll, a meteorologist based in New Zealand ... the entire world has seen record warmth since last July, consistently exceeding an average of 1.5 Celsius of warming above the preindustrial era. As the globe warms, however, the poles are warming at an even faster rate.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/07/31/antarctica-heat-wave-warming-climate/Retreating Andean rocks signal the world's glaciers are melting far faster than predicted, report scientists
Tropical glaciers have shrunk to their smallest size in more than 11,700 years [and] may no longer be classified as being of the Holocene interglacial period. Instead, they may be best classified by an epoch that may be well on its way to spelling their end: the Anthropocene.
https://phys.org/news/2024-08-retreating-andean-world-glaciers-faster.html
reporting on a study at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adg7546Atlantic Ocean currents could collapse as early as the 2030s, new research suggests
Several studies in recent years have suggested the crucial Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, could be on course for collapse, weakened by warmer ocean temperatures and disrupted saltiness caused by human-induced climate change. But the new research, which is being peer-reviewed, uses a state-of-the-art model to estimate when it could collapse, suggesting a shutdown could happen between 2037 and 2064. This research suggests it’s more likely than not to collapse by 2050 ... An AMOC collapse “is a really big danger that we should do everything we can to avoid,” said Stefan Rahmstorf, a physical oceanographer at Potsdam University in Germany who was not involved in the latest research. “Until a few years ago, we were discussing whether it would happen at all, as a kind of low-probability, high-impact risk [but] now it looks a lot more likely than just a few years ago that this will happen. Now people are starting to close in on when it will happen.” While the advances in AMOC research have been swift and the models that try to predict its collapse have advanced at lightning speed, they are still not without issues. For example, the models don’t take into consideration a critical factor in the AMOC’s demise — melting Greenland ice. Massive amounts of fresh water are sloughing off the ice sheet and flowing into the North Atlantic, which disrupts one of the circulation’s driving forces: salt. “You’re already getting a huge influx of fresh water into the northern Atlantic, which is going to completely disrupt the system,” Rahmstorf said. This research gap means the predictions could underestimate how soon or fast a collapse would happen, Rahmstof said.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/02/climate/atlantic-circulation-collapse-timing/index.html
reporting on a study at https://arxiv.org/html/2406.11738v1How India's vulture apocalypse led to the deaths of half a million people
The sudden collapse of India’s vulture population has led to more than half a million excess human deaths in the last five years, according to a peer-reviewed study in the American Economic Review. A flock of vultures can pick a carcass clean in a matter of minutes, purging the environment of harmful pathogens and preventing the spread of deadly diseases. But in the 1990s, vulture populations on the Indian subcontinent plummeted by a staggering 99 per cent – the fastest decline of a bird species in recorded history. For years, scientists were baffled by the sudden extinction. It was only in 2004 that diclofenac – a cheap painkiller widely used to treat cattle that is deadly to vultures if they ingest it – was identified as the cause. The drug was then banned across South Asia in 2006, after it was discovered that even tiny traces of it could cause devastation to bird populations [but] governments in Europe and South Asia are still failing to sufficiently regulate veterinary drugs to protect vultures. Seven out of 11 of the vulture species found in Africa, responsible for cleaning up 70 per cent of the continent’s carrion, are now on the verge of extinction. Diclofenac is also still in circulation ... “We are introducing a lot of toxins into the environment and introducing a lot of changes to habitats ... but if we don’t broaden [our risk assessment] beyond what directly harms human beings then we’re going to risk seeing more and more of these [extinctions] ... and it’s not easy to reverse,” he warned.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/climate-and-people/india-vulture-extinction-led-to-half-a-million-human-deaths/
reporting on a study at https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/BFI_WP_2022-165.pdfThe Hidden Ways Extreme Heat Disrupts Infrastructure
Infrastructure across the U.S. is struggling under the climate crisis. Heat-induced infrastructure problems can arise not only in places such as Arizona, where temperatures can be brutal, but also in traditionally cooler locations such as the Pacific Northwest that are seeing warmer temperatures than ever before [because] It’s not the absolute temperature that matters so much as how far the temperature is outside of engineers’ expectations when infrastructure was built ... Some infrastructure can be hit by compound issues. Power lines at full capacity can sag in high heat, which becomes a fire risk [so] grid managers reduce the amount of energy flowing through the lines. Power plants rely on safety mechanisms that use water to keep systems cool. But in hot weather, this water starts out much warmer and can’t absorb as much heat, forcing managers to slow energy production to keep the system safe [yet] energy demand soars because people rely on power-hungry air-conditioning to stay safe from the heat ... “When you have these heat waves in the summer, things tend to break a lot more frequently,” says Mikhail Chester, a civil engineer at Arizona State University.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-extreme-heat-harms-planes-trains-water-mains-and-other-crucial/US heat wave builds from coast to coast, worsening wildfires
[July 2024 was] not just the hottest July on record for many cities in the US West but the hottest month overall since records began ... A potentially deadly [August] heat wave is expanding from the Central US to both coasts, with 104 million people under heat warnings and advisories early Friday. The extreme heat poses an acute public health risk, particularly since it will last more than a week in some places. It will also cause an uptick in fire risks in the West, where large, fast-moving and deadly wildfires are already burning ... The heat index is likely to max out in the humid Mississippi River Valley during this event at around 115°F. "The combination of hot temperatures/high heat indices, as well as very warm morning lows only dropping into the mid- to upper 70s, will be dangerous to anyone without access to adequate air conditioning."
https://www.axios.com/2024/08/01/heat-wave-intensifies-worsening-wildfiresThe methane imperative
Anthropogenic methane (CH4) emissions increases from the period 1850–1900 until 2019 are responsible for around 65% as much warming as carbon dioxide (CO2) has caused to date, and large reductions in methane emissions are required to limit global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C. However, methane emissions have been increasing rapidly since ~2006. This study shows that emissions are expected to continue to increase over the remainder of the 2020s if no greater action is taken and that increases in atmospheric methane are thus far outpacing projected growth rates.
https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/science/articles/10.3389/fsci.2024.1349770/fullGreatly enhanced risk to humans as a consequence of empirically determined lower moist heat stress tolerance
Increased heat and humidity potentially threaten people and societies. Here, we incorporate our laboratory-measured, physiologically based wet-bulb temperature thresholds across a range of air temperatures and relative humidities, to project future heat stress risk ... Some of the most populated regions, typically lower-middle income countries in the moist tropics and subtropics, violate this threshold well before 3C of warming ... future moist heat extremes will lie outside the bounds of past human experience and beyond current heat mitigation strategies for billions of people.
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2305427120Can Gouda’s Cheesemakers Stall a Sinking Future?
The small city where the renowned Dutch cheese is made is subsiding as sea levels rise.
Increased rainfall and rising sea levels — a consequence of climate change — threaten to flood the river delta in which it sits. “We’re not in good shape,” said Gilles Erkens, a professor at Utrecht University and the head of a team focused on land subsidence ... Much of the Netherlands was built centuries ago on peat marsh, a spongy soil that compresses easily. In Gouda, it is constantly subsiding under the weight of the city, said Michel Klijmij-van der Laan, a city alderman who focuses on sustainability and subsidence issues ... Mr. Rotmans, the Erasmus University professor, said the country needed to develop a radical new approach within 10 years, adding that he was frustrated by the lack of urgency given that the region is low-lying and has such a high density of people, cows and industry. [But] few residents seemed concerned about the future. Dutch water engineers are famous for their water management skills because they have built a whole country on marshland, using an intricate system of dams, dikes and canals. “We have to take measures, but it’s not like we’re going to drown here in a couple of years. In the Netherlands, we’ve always done water management, and we always will.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/01/world/europe/netherlands-gouda-climate.htmlFood as You Know It Is About to Change
Rates of undernourishment have grown 21 percent since 2017. Agricultural yields are [not] growing as quickly as demand is booming. Obesity has continued to rise, and the average micronutrient content of dozens of popular vegetables has continued to fall ... More than three-quarters of the population of Africa, which has already surpassed one billion, cannot today afford a healthy diet [and] there has been little agricultural productivity growth there for 20 years. Over the same time period, there hasn’t been much growth in the United States either ... food scarcity is driving record levels of human displacement and migration [but] the climate threats to come loom even larger ... over a 30-year time horizon, the insurer Lloyd’s recently estimated a 50 percent chance of what it called a “major” global food shock. But disruption is only half the story and perhaps much less than that ... Partly this is a matter of sheer scale. More than one-third of the planet’s land is used to produce food, and 70 percent of all fresh water is used to irrigate farmland ... but adding farmland means cutting down forests, which store carbon, in order to graze more animals, which produce carbon ... A few years ago, it was possible to imagine a suite of solutions that both addressed the problem of emissions from food production and pivoted away from industrial agriculture [but such] practices now look less like miracle cures ... three-quarters of all global agricultural land is vulnerable to substantial climate disruptions, NASA’s Jonas Jägermeyr says ... there’s no magic-bullet solution, he says: We need a bundle of innovations and interventions. And innovation at this scale doesn’t just happen at the snap of a finger [but] only after a decade or two of scientific, political, social and economic germination (and often difficulty). Even where politics are relatively stable, market incentives are often perverse, infrastructure often insufficient and support systems lacking ... Jägermeyr calls it “the challenge of our generation” — how to save the food system from what he calls a 'quadruple squeeze.' “It’s pretty complicated,” he admits. “And the scary part is that we have to solve them all.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/28/opinion/food-climate-crisis-prices.html
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-021-00400-y.epdfUS home insurers suffer worst loss this century
Insurers providing policies to homeowners suffered a $15.2bn net underwriting loss last year [2023], according to figures from rating agency AM Best, a figure it said was the worst since at least 2000 and more than double the previous year’s losses. The figures lay bare the underwriting conditions that have sparked a pullback by US insurers from disaster-hit areas, either exiting markets or driving up prices ... “The industry is facing rapidly escalating coverage demands while insured losses are skyrocketing,” said Robert Gordon, senior vice-president of policy, research and international at the American Property Casualty Insurance Association, a trade body. “If insurers cannot appropriately price business in a timely manner, markets rapidly deteriorate.”
https://www.ft.com/content/09a37793-7bea-4c90-a47f-4536405458e3Severe heatwave in Iran forces shops and public institutions to close
A heatwave blanketing Iran has forced authorities to cut operating hours at various facilities on Saturday and order all government and commercial institutions to close ... temperatures ranged from 37C (98.6F) to 42C (107F) in the capital, Tehran, according to weather reports ... Sadegh Ziaian, an official at the National Meteorological Organisation, was quoted by Mehr as saying temperatures exceeded 45C (113F) in 10 Iranian provinces on Saturday, with the highest temperature of 49.7C (121F) recorded in Delgan.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/27/severe-heatwave-in-iran-forces-shops-and-public-institutions-to-closeMulti-year drought and heat waves across Mexico in 2024
Nearly 76 percent of the country was experiencing drought through the end of May 2024 [making this] the most widespread drought Mexico has experienced since 2011, when just over 85 percent of the country was affected ... Heat waves also started quite early this year, with the country’s first impactful heat wave occurring in April. A second heat wave occurred in May, and a third started at the end of May and continued into June. May and June were both exceptionally hot, ranking as the warmest May and June on record for the country. In May, more than 60 percent of the country recorded monthly temperature anomalies more than 3 degrees Celsius [and] more than 80 high-temperature records were broken.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/multi-year-drought-and-heat-waves-across-mexico-2024Extreme Wildfires Are Getting More Extreme and Occurring More Often
The world’s most energetic wildfires have doubled in intensity and number over the past 2 decades, with climate change and land management likely to blame
Cunningham and his colleagues mapped the intensity of more than 30 million wildfire events [while] homing in on the most intense burns. “That heat energy directly relates to the amount of biomass burned and the emissions released,” explained Cunningham. “It’s essentially a measure of environmental damage” ... 6 of the past 7 years experienced the highest number of extreme fires. Last year saw the most extreme fires and was also the hottest year on record. That uptick in extreme fires fits with existing observations of worsening fire activity ... the global trend was driven by a dramatic worsening of extreme wildfires in the western United States, Canada, and Russia [with] an elevenfold increase in extreme fires in the coniferous forests of North America since 2003. High-latitude boreal forests experienced a sevenfold increase over the same period. “Climate change is unambiguously making the conditions required for an extreme fire more common,” said Cunningham.
https://eos.org/articles/extreme-wildfires-are-getting-more-extreme-and-occurring-more-often
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-024-02452-2Hottest Day On Earth Recorded, Again
The record set on Sunday for the planet’s hottest day ever lasted just a single day, as another record was set on Monday as a series of summer heat waves blister North America and scientists warn human-caused greenhouse gas emissions could accelerate the pace of climate change ... The consecutive record-breaking days come as scientists warn about devastating and long-range effects of human-induced climate change, which has been linked to exacerbated heat waves, more intense major storm systems, sea-level rise and prolonged drought. In a statement Tuesday, Copernicus director Carlo Buontempo said “we are now in truly uncharted territory and as the climate keeps warming, we are bound to see new records being broken in future months and years.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbushard/2024/07/24/hottest-day-on-earth-planet-breaks-record-twice-this-week-amid-historic-heat-waves/UK getting more hot and more wet days
Climate change is dramatically increasing the frequency of extreme high temperatures in the UK, new Met Office analysis has confirmed. Its annual State of the Climate report says data from 2023 shows the country is experiencing significantly more really hot days. Its observations suggest there has been an increase in the number of really wet days too ... "The statistics in this report really do speak for themselves," said lead author and Met Office climate scientist, Mike Kendon. "The climate is not just going to change in the future, it is already changing." The new report confirms 2023 was the second warmest year on record for the UK, had the hottest June ever recorded and the joint warmest September. Separate studies by Met Office scientists found all these events were made much more likely to happen because of human-induced climate change.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c147v82gxp2o
reporting on a study at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/about/state-of-climateIn the Andes, mountain guides bear witness to shrinking glaciers
The route to the top is still the same path paved by the Incas [but] now the mountain is crumbling. Rising global temperatures due to climate change have led the glacier to retreat and the permafrost to melt. New lagoons have formed and ruptured, landslides have injured climbers and massive sinkholes have opened up, breaking up the ancient path to the summit. Gallardo said his family has been working at El Plomo for generations, but he thinks they have about a decade left ... “The changes we're seeing are unprecedented in recent human history,” said Pablo Wainstein, a civil engineer who has studied Andean and Arctic glaciers and permafrost for more than two decades. “If permafrost degrades, it's not ‘cementing’ anymore the ground and it leads to more rockfalls in mountainous terrain,” Wainstein said ... “When I am gone and you are gone, everything’s going to be lost,” Villegas said. “There were places in Patagonia I went to that were all glacier, now it’s forest. And that’s how it’s going to be.” Wainstein said such changes are consistent with scientific predictions. The Andes mountain range is the longest in the world and has some of the fastest-disappearing ice packs.
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/andes-climate-change-mountaineering/
reporting on a study at https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0303243418303714Great Salt Lake dry-up increasing greenhouse gas emissions: Study
As the Great Salt Lake falls prey to human-induced drought conditions, its increasingly exposed seabed is emitting greenhouse gases and accelerating climate change, a new study has found. About 4.1 million tons of such gases were released from the dried-out lake floor in 2020 alone, with carbon dioxide making up 94 percent of those emissions, according to the study, published on Thursday in One Earth. “Human-caused desiccation of Great Salt Lake is exposing huge areas of lake bed and releasing massive quantities of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere,” lead author Soren Brothers, climate change curator at the Royal Ontario Museum, said in a statement ... the ever-increasing volumes of human-related water consumption — via agriculture, industry, mining and municipal uses — are responsible for depleting the lake, according to the researchers. Similar circumstances affect other saline basins around the world, such as the Aral Sea, Lake Urmia and the Caspian Sea — destroying critical habitats for area biodiversity, creating dust-filled air pollution and emitting carbon dioxide and methane, per the study.
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4792826-great-salt-lake-seabed-greenhouse-gas-emissions-study
see also https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/07/25/great-salt-lake-emissions/
reporting on a study at https://www.cell.com/one-earth/fulltext/S2590-3322(24)00326-9China’s extreme weather raises alarm about the country’s disaster insurance gaps
China, which already lags developed countries in insurance penetration, needs to do more in expanding catastrophe insurance coverage, insurance industry specialists said. “There are areas where China’s insurers need to catch up, particularly in addressing emerging risks associated with climate change,” [said] Peggy Ding, placement leader at Marsh China ... This is a timely reminder as a series of natural disasters hit China, where only around 10 per cent of the losses from natural disasters are covered by insurance. Several parts of China, including southern Guangdong province, southwestern Sichuan, and eastern Henan province, have been grappling with devastating floods after prolonged rainfalls since this summer.
https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3271306/chinas-extreme-weather-raises-alarm-about-countrys-disaster-insurance-gapsBirth rates in rich countries halve to hit record low
The average number of children per woman across the 38 most industrialised countries has fallen from 3.3 in 1960 to 1.5 in 2022, according to a study by the OECD [which is] well below the “replacement level” of 2.1 children per woman ... even family-friendly policies are unlikely to raise birth rates to replacement levels, said Adema ... a fall in birth rates in countries with extensive policies to support families, such as Finland, France and Norway, “has been a big surprise”, said Wolfgang Lutz, founding director of the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital in Vienna.
https://www.ft.com/content/f0d2a5a7-e5ef-4044-8380-ff690b609a5a
reporting on a study at https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/society-at-a-glance-2024_918d8db3-en/full-report/component-5.html#chapter-d1e616-e39b6607d6As a baby bust hits rural areas, hospital labor and delivery wards are closing down
At least 41 Iowa hospitals have shuttered their labor and delivery units since 2000 [representing] about a third of Iowa hospitals ... Similar trends are playing out nationwide, as hospitals struggle to maintain staff and facilities to safely handle dwindling numbers of births. More than half of rural U.S. hospitals now lack labor and delivery services. "People just aren't having as many kids," said Addie Comegys, who lives in southern Iowa ... The baby boom peaked in 1957, when about 4.3 million children were born in the United States. The annual number of births had dropped below 3.7 million by 2022, even though the overall U.S. population nearly doubled over that same period.
https://www.npr.org/sections/shots-health-news/2024/07/12/nx-s1-5036878/rural-hospitals-labor-delivery-health-care-shortage-birthFertility declines, tapering populations, soaring life expectancies: What the U.N. population report shows about us and our future on this planet
Fertility rates around the world are dropping quicker than expected ... More than 60 countries and territories have already peaked in population, including Italy, Japan, Russia and, in 2021, China, according to the report published Thursday ... The global fertility rate is currently 2.25 births per woman, one child per woman less than in 1990. More than half of all countries have a fertility rate less than 2.1 births per woman, or what’s known as the “replacement rate,” because it’s the number of children that each woman would need to have, on average, to keep the population from declining.
https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/graphics-2024-united-nations-world-population-prospects-report-data-rcna160017
reporting on a study at https://population.un.org/wpp/Nanoplastics and ‘Forever Chemicals’ Disrupt Molecular Structures, Functionality
Researchers at The University of Texas at El Paso have made significant inroads in understanding how nanoplastics and per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) — commonly known as forever chemicals — disrupt biomolecular structure and function ... forever chemicals are manmade [endocrine disruptors] present throughout the environment; a series of recent studies have linked them to numerous negative health outcomes ... their research revealed that nanoplastics and PFAS completely “dissolved” a region of proteins known as the alpha helix, converting them into structures called beta sheets. The team observed that this alteration also occurs in amyloid proteins, which can cause neurodegeneration and neurotoxic outcomes if the synthetic chemicals reach the brain.
https://www.utep.edu/newsfeed/2024/nanoplastics-and-forever-chemicals-disrupt-molecular-structures-functionality.html
reporting on a study at https://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/jacs.4c02934
reporting on a study at https://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/acsami.4c03008‘Everyone is drinking it’: Why this type of ‘forever chemical’ seems to be everywhere
“TFA is in all the drinking water. You are drinking it right now. Everyone’s drinking it.”
A growing body of research has raised concerns about a forever chemical known as TFA, which ... has been found in increasing amounts in rainwater, groundwater and drinking water ... [known endocrine disruptor] PFAS in general have been linked to several kinds of cancer; infertility; high cholesterol; low birth weights; and negative effects on the liver, thyroid and immune system.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/07/13/tfa-forever-chemical-pfasExtreme Heat Is Causing Billions in Damages That Insurers Won’t Cover
Heat waves have become more intense, longer lasting and three times as frequent as they were 60 years ago, according to government data. The upward trend is expected to persist as climate change makes more areas vulnerable to the record-breaking temperatures of recent weeks. Standard insurance policies are designed for sudden and accidental damages, such as those caused by fires, storms and theft, and often don’t cover the effects of intense heat ... Heat can also stunt the quality of and volume of crops, losses that may not be apparent until harvest.
https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/extreme-heat-waves-insurance-claims-8a74987eHuman Impacts Dominate Global Loss of Lake Ecosystem Resilience
[A study of] 1,049 lakes worldwide during 2000–2018 ... indicate that 46.7% of lakes are experiencing a significant decline in resilience, particularly since the early 2010s, closely associated with higher human population density and anthropogenic eutrophication.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024GL109298Aquatic deoxygenation as a planetary boundary and key regulator of Earth system stability
Planetary boundaries are interconnected such that movement of one planetary boundary process can alter the likelihood of crossing other boundaries ... the rapid and ongoing deoxygenation of Earth’s aquatic habitats indicates that relevant, critical oxygen thresholds are being approached at rates comparable to other planetary boundary processes ... crossing the deoxygenation boundary threshold would have substantial impacts on other planetary boundary processes ... Widespread deoxygenation is likely to continue for decades to centuries [and] ongoing global environmental changes are expected to push deoxygenation—along with several other planetary boundary processes—towards or beyond critical thresholds.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-024-02448-y.epdfTracking a large-scale and highly toxic Arctic algal bloom
The paralytic shellfish toxins (PSTs) that this species produces have been detected throughout the food web. These observations have raised significant concerns about the role that harmful algal blooms (HABs) will play in a rapidly changing Arctic ... The bloom was exceptional in both spatial scale and density [and] represented a striking example of northward bloom advection from subpolar waters, as well as eastward penetration into Alaskan Coastal waters due to local wind forcing; this mixing of nutrient-rich western Bering Sea water with the warm coastal current likely created favorable temperature and nutrient conditions for A. catenella growth and accumulation.
https://aslopubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/lol2.10421
see also https://www.science.org/content/article/warming-oceans-are-pushing-harmful-algal-blooms-polar-watersRadar Data Show Thwaites Gets a Daily Bath of Warm Seawater
Daily tides bring warm ocean water farther in beneath West Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier than previously thought, potentially causing ice to melt faster than expected, according to a new study. Most ice sheet simulations have not accurately predicted Thwaites’s recent retreat because they assume that a glacier’s grounding line is fixed. But recent research on Thwaites and other glaciers has shown that these boundaries between floating ice and ice that is grounded on the seafloor shift [because] the ice rose and sank in sync with the tides. The data suggested that the grounding line migrated up to 6 kilometers (3.7 miles) inland during an average high tide. When the tides were particularly high, the glacier’s uplift suggested that a thin layer of seawater up to 10 centimeters (4 inches) deep pushed another 6 kilometers (3.7 miles) inland. The researchers think that this extra water may be causing more melting than current estimates predict because it replaces cold melted fresh water that lines the base of the glacier with warmer, salty seawater.
https://eos.org/articles/radar-data-show-thwaites-gets-a-daily-bath-of-warm-seawaterNew Study Uncovers Key Error in Climate Models: Earth’s Albedo Overestimated
“Ice reflectivity was much too high.”
In a study published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, a team led by researchers from the UC Irvine Department of Earth System Science and the University of Michigan Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering reveal how a climate model commonly used by geoscientists currently overestimates a key physical property of Earth’s climate system ... The amount of sunlight the planet receives and reflects is important for estimating just how much the planet will warm in the coming years ... with the new ice reflectivity incorporated into the model, the Greenland Ice Sheet is melting at a rate of about six gigatons more than in older model versions. This is based on albedo measurements that are more consistent with satellite observations.
https://scitechdaily.com/new-study-uncovers-key-error-in-climate-models-earths-albedo-overestimated/
reporting on a study at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023JD040241Global temperatures reach Paris Agreement target of 1.5C above average for 12 months in a row
Global temperatures have now reached or broken the Paris Agreement threshold for 12 months in a row. According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, run by the EU, June was 1.5 degrees Celsius exactly above pre-industrial levels. It was also Earth's hottest June on record, with the month marked by several deadly heatwaves which spanned large parts of the northern hemisphere ... director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service Carlo Buontempo said it was "more than a statistical oddity", highlighting a large and continuing shift in our climate. "Even if this specific streak of extremes ends at some point, we are bound to see new records being broken as the climate continues to warm," he said. "This is inevitable, unless we stop adding greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and the oceans. "
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-08/temperatures-1-5c-above-pre-industrial-era-average-for-12-months/104054910
see also https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-june-2024-marks-12th-month-global-temperature-reaching-15degc-above-pre-industrialAs climate shifts, a leafhopper bug plagues Argentina's corn fields
Global warming has brought Argentina's corn farmers a dangerous new enemy: a yellow insect just four millimeters (0.16 inch) long that thrives in hotter temperatures and is threatening harvests of the crop ... The world's No. 3 corn exporting country has slashed millions of tons from its harvest projections for the current crop ... Farmers fear such infestations could become more regular, with fewer frosts in recent years to check the insect's spread, and forecasts for a warm winter ahead ... "We all suspect that it still could get much worse than what we're seeing," he added. "It's a big blow to corn." According to Russo, leafhopper numbers in northern Argentina are 10 times the normal level, while the insect has been found nearly 1,500 kilometers (932 miles) south of traditional areas, where previously it had been too cold.
https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/climate-shifts-leafhopper-bug-plagues-argentinas-corn-fields-2024-05-07/Flooding in northern Bangladesh displaces 40,000 people
Flooding in Bangladesh has swept away homes and shut schools, displacing tens of thousands of people, the Disaster and Relief Ministry said on July 9, and a forecast for more heavy rain over the next few days is expected to worsen the situation. Some 40,000 people are taking refuge at government shelters ... Television footage showed inundated roads, broken bridges and dams, as well as villagers wading through knee-deep water ... "Bangladeshis are used to flooding, but the water is coming up so high and so quickly in low-lying areas that people are being forced to shelter on anything, even rafts made of banana trees," said Mr Liakath Ali, head of climate change programme at development agency Brac ... “Heavy rain in the Indian upstream region means that the suffering is far from over,” said Mr Rezwanul Rahman, the head of Bangladesh’s disaster management department.
https://www.banglanews24.com/english/national/news/bd/151192.detailsDiurnally [day/night] asymmetric cloud cover trends amplify greenhouse warming
Less daytime cloud cover lets more heat in, but heavier nighttime cloud cover traps the created heat
Global cloud cover, particularly low-level cloudiness, exhibits diurnally asymmetric trends in a warming climate. During daytime, clouds tend to cool the surface by blocking sunlight, while during nighttime clouds warm the surface by trapping heat. We find that on average daytime is less cloudy than at night, and this asymmetry acts as an amplifier of surface warming, by both decreasing the daytime cloud albedo and increasing the nighttime cloud heat-trapping greenhouse effect.
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.ado5179Devastation as world’s biggest wetland burns: ‘those that cannot run don’t stand a chance’
More than 760,000 hectares (1.8m acres) have already burned across the the Brazilian Pantanal in 2024, as fires surge to the highest levels since 2020, the worst year on record. From January to July, blazes increased by 1,500% compared with the same period last year. “We expect it is only going to get worse” ... the Pantanal covers 16.9m hectares (42m acres) and houses a host of vulnerable and endangered species. With the blazes starting unusually early this year – in late May and early June, before the annual fire season between July and September – experts predict 2024 will be the most devastating in decades ... humans start the vast majority of wildfires. Ranchers use fires to clear land for their cattle – as they have for centuries – but those that were once contained by the wetland’s abundant water now rage out of control. More than 90% of the Pantanal is privately owned, of which 80% is used for cattle ranching. Almost 95% of outbreaks in the first half of 2024 started in private areas. The wetlands have lost 68% of their water area since 1985.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/09/devastation-as-worlds-biggest-wetland-burns-those-that-cannot-run-dont-stand-a-chance-brazil-pantanalThe dawn of the Antarctic ice sheets
In recent years global warming has left its mark on the Antarctic ice sheets. The "eternal" ice in Antarctica is melting faster than previously assumed, particularly in West Antarctica more than East Antarctica. The root for this could lie in its formation ... permanent glaciation of Antarctica began around 34 million years ago – but did not encompass the entire continent as previously assumed, but rather was confined to the eastern region of the continent (East Antarctica). It was not until at least 7 million years later that ice was able to advance towards West Antarctic coasts. The results of the new study show how substantially differently East and West Antarctica react to external forcing ... This is of crucial importance, as Johann Klages who led the research team says: “Especially in light of the fact that we could be facing such a fundamental climate change again in the near future.”
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1050173
reporting on a study at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adj3931China warns of hotter, longer heatwaves as climate change intensifies
In its annual climate "Blue Book", the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) warned that maximum temperatures across the country could rise by 1.7-2.8 degrees Celsius within 30 years, with eastern China and the northwestern region of Xinjiang set to suffer the most. Last year, average national temperatures hit a new high, leading to record levels of glacial retreat and melting permafrost in the northwest, the Blue Book said. China describes itself as one of the world's most climate-vulnerable countries, and it is coming under increasing pressure to adapt to rapidly changing weather patterns and sea levels that are rising faster than the global average ... Yuan Jiashuang, vice-director of the CMA's National Climate Centre [said] if emissions remained high, extreme heat events expected to occur once every fifty years in China could happen every other year by the end of the century, and rainfall could double and become more unpredictable.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-weather-authority-warns-high-summer-temperatures-2024-07-04/What is the wet bulb temperature? And why is it so important?
This number can measure how dangerous a heat wave is for you
Amid extraordinary sweltering temperatures, an old measure of heat risk is getting some renewed attention: the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT). It tracks temperature, humidity, and sunlight, and it’s shown that it can better warn against the dangers of hot weather than temperature alone. The upper limit wet-bulb temperature for human survival is considered to be 95 degrees Fahrenheit for young, healthy people, but in the recent heat wave in India, the WBGT reached 100 degrees ... Most human bodies operate within a narrow temperature band around 98.6 degrees Fahrenheit. “All your biochemistry and physiology, the function, is optimized for that temperature,” explained W. Jon Williams, a research physiologist at the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health. As a consequence, the human body devotes a lot of resources to holding steady at this temperature. “If it’s dry enough, if the humidity is low enough, [sweating] is an extremely efficient way of taking body heat away to the environment,” Williams said. However, as humidity increases, the cooling effectiveness of sweating decreases since sweat doesn’t evaporate as readily. If heat and humidity rise in tandem, that increases the chances of the body’s temperature rising too. And if surrounding temperatures are hotter than 98.6 degrees Fahrenheit, the body ends up absorbing heat from the environment. Too much heat in the body can quickly lead to complications [and] if the core body temperature rises past 104 degrees Fahrenheit, it can cause heat stroke, a life-threatening condition where organs shut down ... According to the US Marine Corps, WBGT is “the most effective means of assessing the effect of heat stress on the human body” ... The point of the damp thermometer is to simulate how well sweat can evaporate under the present conditions. The longer the thermometer stays wet as temperatures rise, the more humid the surrounding air, and thus the more difficult it is to cool off by sweating.
https://www.vox.com/climate/354977/heat-wave-wet-bulb-temperature-climateStudy Finds Alaskan Ice Field Melting at an ‘Incredibly Worrying’ Pace
One of North America’s largest areas of interconnected glaciers is melting twice as quickly as it did before 2010, a team of scientists said Tuesday, in what they called an “incredibly worrying” sign that land ice in many places could disappear even sooner than previously thought. The Juneau Ice Field, which sprawls across the Coast Mountains of Alaska and British Columbia, lost 1.4 cubic miles of ice a year between 2010 and 2020, the researchers estimated. That’s a sharp acceleration from the decades before, and even sharper when compared with the mid-20th century or earlier, the scientists said. All told, the ice field has shed a quarter of its volume since the late 18th century ... As societies add more and more planet-warming carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, glaciers in many areas could cross tipping points beyond which their melting speeds up rapidly, said Bethan Davies, a glaciologist at Newcastle University in England who led the new research ... The changes they’ve uncovered are sweeping. Every one of the ice field’s glaciers receded between 1770 and 2019, the scientists found. More than 100 glaciers disappeared entirely. Nearly 50 new lakes formed as glaciers melted and the water pooled.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/02/climate/alaska-juneau-icefield-melting.html
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-49269-ySubstantial contribution of slush to meltwater area across Antarctic ice shelves
Surface melting occurs across many of Antarctica’s ice shelves, mainly during the austral summer. The onset, duration, area and fate of surface melting varies spatially and temporally, and the resultant surface meltwater is stored as ponded water (lakes) or as slush (saturated firn or snow) ... slush and ponded water occupy roughly equal areas of Antarctica’s ice shelves in January [suggesting] that studies that neglect slush may substantially underestimate the area of ice shelves covered by surface meltwater. Furthermore, we found that adjusting the surface albedo in a regional climate model to account for the lower albedo of surface meltwater resulted in 2.8 times greater snowmelt across five representative ice shelves. This extra melt is currently unaccounted for in regional climate models, which may lead to underestimates in projections of ice-sheet melting and ice-shelf stability.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-024-01466-6Projections of an ice-free Arctic Ocean
Observed Arctic sea ice losses are a sentinel of anthropogenic climate change. These reductions are projected to continue with ongoing warming, ultimately leading to an ice-free Arctic (sea ice area <1 million km2) ... In the September monthly mean, the earliest ice-free conditions (the first single occurrence of an ice-free Arctic) could occur in 2020–2030s under all emission trajectories and are likely to occur by 2050. However, daily September ice-free conditions are expected approximately 4 years earlier on average, with the possibility of preceding monthly metrics by 10 years. Consistently ice-free September conditions (frequent occurrences of an ice-free Arctic) are anticipated by mid-century (by 2035–2067).
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-023-00515-9The return of the ozone crisis: Why Earth’s atmospheric hole poses a huge threat (again)
The ozone layer is still suffering from severe seasonal depletion, and proposed geoengineering techniques will make it worse
There is no life without our ozone layer [which] absorbs the most powerful, damaging ultraviolet rays and essentially prevents living things from being killed by the power of the Sun. Back in the 1980s scientists in Antarctica discovered [that] human-made chemicals were mixing with ozone molecules and destroying them. Fortunately, the world paid attention ... world leaders signed an international treaty at a summit in Montreal to phase out those ozone-depleting chemicals. Now, four decades on, research has shown that human activity risks putting that global achievement in jeopardy ... in recent years, the hole has remained until December, well into the Antarctic summer, which is when plants and animals are much more vulnerable ... beginning of summer is also the peak breeding season for many animals, so it’s a particularly vulnerable time in their lifecycle. The reason for this extended period of potentially deadly ozone loss is simple: climate change. Catastrophic global warming fuelled wildfires ... released clouds of particles into the atmosphere that drove more of the ozone-eating reactions that have historically done so much damage. Ironically, there are some proposed climate-cooling experiments – so-called geoengineering techniques – that propose ‘making clouds’ by releasing sulphate particles into the upper atmosphere. This would also deplete ozone, so, as Robinson put it: “It’s a bad idea.”
https://www.sciencefocus.com/nature/ozone-layer-environment
see also https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jun/28/the-vanishing-ozone-layer-cfcs-1974Hurricane Beryl’s Unprecedented Intensification Is an ‘Omen’ for the Rest of the Season [and the future]
A new tropical depression formed in the Atlantic Ocean last Friday. A mere two days later it had become a monstrous Category 4 hurricane, which made landfall in Grenada’s island of Carriacou on Monday. By late that evening local time, the storm, named Beryl, was a Category 5 hurricane, the earliest ever in the Atlantic Ocean basin. The occurrence of such rapid intensification this early in the Atlantic hurricane season and in that location has left meteorologists agog. “Beryl is rewriting the history books in all the wrong ways,” wrote Eric Blake, a senior hurricane scientist at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) ... it likely won’t be the only exceptional hurricane this season, given the overall favorable conditions for storms to develop—especially the extremely warm ocean waters. “I think it is kind of an omen of what the hurricane season will be,” says Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami. “I think we will see some pretty amazing outlier events happen.” Prior to the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1, the NHC forecast that 17 to 25 named storms will likely occur by the time that season ends on November 30. (Storms receive a name once they reach tropical or subtropical storm strength, meaning they have winds of at least 39 miles per hour.) Of those, eight to 13 are expected to become hurricanes. And four to seven of those hurricanes will likely strengthen into major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). This is the highest number of named storms the NHC has ever predicted ... Before Beryl, there has never been a hurricane known to form this far east in June, McNoldy says ... Beryl also became the earliest Category 4 hurricane on record for the Atlantic; the previous record-holder was Hurricane Dennis on July 8, 2005—during another blockbuster season. On late Monday evening Beryl beat another record from that season (the same year that produced Hurricane Katrina), becoming the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record by two weeks. The previous earliest Category 5 was Hurricane Emily on July 16, 2005. “That is not a couple of years that you want to be breaking records of,” McNoldy says. Beryl is also the strongest Atlantic hurricane to occur in July on record, with 165 mph maximum wind speeds ... The only other comparable storms have occurred near or at the peak of the Atlantic season in August and September, when there is abundant ocean heat to fuel the convection that drives hurricanes. Rapid intensification is defined as when a storm’s winds jump by at least 35 mph in 24 hours. Beryl’s exploded by 63 mph over that same period. Several studies suggest more storms will undergo rapid intensification—and at faster rates—as the climate continues to warm.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-hurricane-beryl-underwent-unprecedented-rapid-intensification/Toxic PFAS absorbed through skin at levels higher than previously thought
Absorption through skin could be ‘significant source of exposure’ to toxic forever chemicals, study shows New research “for the first time proves” toxic PFAS forever chemicals are absorbed through human skin, and at levels much higher than previously thought ... PFAS are a class of about 16,000 compounds used to make products resistant to water, stains and heat. They are called “forever chemicals” because they do not naturally break down and have been found to accumulate in humans. These [endocrine disruptor] chemicals are linked to cancer, birth defects, liver disease, thyroid disease, plummeting sperm counts and a range of other serious health problems.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jun/30/pfas-absorbed-skin-studyExtreme Wildfires Are Twice as Common as They Were 20 Years Ago
The frequency at which extreme fires occur around the world has more than doubled during the past two decades ... driven by the exponential growth of extreme fires across vast portions of Canada, the western United States and Russia [and] climate change is almost certainly a factor. “It’s the extreme events that we care about the most, and those are the ones that are increasing quite significantly,” says lead author Calum Cunningham, an ecologist at the University of Tasmania in Hobart, Australia. For the current study, published in Nature Ecology and Evolution, Cunningham and his colleagues scoured global satellite data for fire activity. They used infrared records to measure the energy intensity of nearly 31 million daily fire events over two decades, focusing on the most extreme ones — roughly 2,900 events. The researchers calculated that there was a 2.2-fold increase in the frequency of extreme events globally in 2003–23, and a 2.3-fold boost in the average intensity of the top 20 most intense fires each year.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/extreme-wildfires-are-twice-as-common-as-they-were-20-years-ago
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-02071-8What your gut has in common with Arctic permafrost, and why it’s a troubling sign for climate change
Permafrost, the frozen earth that covers roughly a quarter of the Northern Hemisphere, traps an enormous amount of planet-heating carbon — 2.5 times the amount currently in the atmosphere. But as the ground thaws, the microbial community in the soil wakes up and begins to eat away at the trapped organic material, releasing all that buried carbon into the atmosphere as greenhouse gases, which, in turn, trap even more heat around the planet. In a self-perpetuating feedback loop, the warmer it gets, the more active soil microbes become. And new research suggests that scientists might have not realized just how much of that carbon-sinking permafrost is at risk: Twice the estimated amount of carbon could be on offer for hungry microbes to decompose, which could lead to increased emissions. “We were surprised that some of the exact pathways that exist in the human gut were shared by totally different organisms,” said Kelly Wrighton, a microbiology professor at Colorado State University who leads the lab behind the study, which was published last month in the journal Nature Microbiology.
https://grist.org/science/arctic-permafrost-microbes-climate-change/
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-024-01691-0The New Climate Denial Is Based on These Six Terms
It’s absurd, at this point, to claim that climate change isn’t real ... so now [the] titans of finance and tech, as well as coal, oil, and gas executives themselves, have started spreading a new, more subtle form of climate denial ... spun out of six key terms that dominate the language of climate politics: alarmist, cost, growth, “India and China,” innovation, and resilience. Together these terms weave a narrative that goes something like this: “Yes, climate change is real, but calling it an existential threat is just alarmist. And, anyway, phasing out coal, oil, and gas would cost us too much. Human flourishing relies on the economic growth enabled by fossil fuels, so we need to keep using them and deal with climate change by fostering technological innovation and increasing our resilience. Besides, America should not act unilaterally on the climate crisis while emissions are rising in India and China.” This narrative is designed to encourage the incorrect and dangerous belief that the world does not need essentially to stop using fossil fuels—either because climate change won’t be that destructive or, in some versions of the story, because the world can keep using coal, oil, and gas and still halt global heating anyway.
https://newrepublic.com/article/182144/climate-denial-language-oil25% of U.S. Yards Have Unsafe Levels of Lead
A new study reveals that approximately one in four U.S. households have soil that contains lead levels exceeding the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s updated screening threshold of 200 parts per million (ppm), a reduction from the previous limit of 400 ppm. Additionally, for households facing exposure from multiple sources, the EPA has further reduced the guideline to 100 ppm; the study found that nearly 40% of households surpass this stricter level. “I was shocked at how many households were above the new 200 ppm guideline,” said Gabriel Filippelli, a biochemist at Indiana University who led the new study. “I assumed it was going to be a more modest number. And results for the 100 ppm guideline are even worse.” Remediating the roughly 29 million affected households using traditional “dig and dump” soil removal methods could cost upward of $1 trillion, the study calculated.
https://scitechdaily.com/a-trillion-dollar-problem-shocking-new-study-reveals-that-25-of-u-s-yards-have-unsafe-levels-of-lead/
reporting on a study at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2024GH001045The Deadly Mining Complex Powering the EV Revolution
Controlled by Chinese metals giant Tsingshan Holding Group Co., IMIP is the product of more than $30 billion in investment. Sprawling across what was once a plain of farmers’ fields and fishing hamlets on Sulawesi’s eastern shore, a short distance from nickel-mining concessions that dot the surrounding hillsides, it boasts its own seaport and airport, along with a resort-style hotel for visiting executives. [But] that success has a dark side. December’s fire was the worst in a long series of fatal accidents at IMIP and other Indonesian nickel sites. Workers have been buried under slag, crushed by heavy equipment and killed in falls. In surrounding communities, residents complain of respiratory ailments that they blame on pollution from smelters and the coal-fired power plants that sustain them. And environmentalists accuse the nickel industry of flouting regulations intended to protect ecologically sensitive islands such as Sulawesi—while expanding production of a material critical to the EVs that Western governments promote on environmental grounds.
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2024-indonesia-sulawesi-nickel-fire/The Climate Is the Economy
When all the economic indicators that take highest priority in Americans’ heads are in such volatile motion thanks to climate change, it may be time to reconsider how traditional economics work and how we perceive their effects. It’s no longer a time when extreme weather was rarer and more predictable ... you can’t keep ignoring the clear links between our current weather hellscape, climate change, and our everyday goods ... we’re no longer in a world where climate change affects the economy, or where voters prioritizing economic or inflationary concerns are responding to something distinct from climate change—we’re in a world where climate change is the economy.
https://slate.com/business/2024/06/floods-storms-inflation-florida-texas-home-insurance-climate-change-economy.htmlPuerto Rico issues an island-wide heat advisory for the first time as power outages persist
All 78 of the U.S. territory’s municipalities were placed under a heat advisory or warning, as well as the U.S. Virgin Islands. This is the first time forecasters have extended a heat advisory beyond Puerto Rico’s coastal areas since the alert system was put in place six years ago. Heat indexes were expected to reach up to 114 degrees Fahrenheit (about 46 degrees Celsius) along most of Puerto Rico’s coastal areas on Tuesday and through Wednesday morning as a dense cloud of Saharan dust from Africa blankets the island.
https://apnews.com/article/puerto-rico-heat-advisory-46a70c2341d74f9ccdf03a5d83e3dc91New tipping point discovered beneath the Antarctic ice sheet
Warm water that seeps underneath can melt ice in way not yet included in models
A new and worrying way that large ice sheets can melt has been characterised by scientists for the first time. The research focuses on how relatively warm seawater can lap at the underside of ground-based ice, which can accelerate the movement of the ice into the ocean. This process is currently not included in models that predict sea level rise, so the new results could offer a more accurate picture of how the world will change with global warming and how much coastal areas will need to adapt ... Carried out by scientists at the British Antarctic Survey (BAS), the findings are published in the journal Nature Geoscience. “We have identified the possibility of a new tipping-point in Antarctic ice sheet melting,” says Alex Bradley, an ice dynamics researcher at BAS and lead author of the new paper. “This means our projections of sea level rise might be significant underestimates.”
https://www.bas.ac.uk/media-post/new-tipping-point-discovered-beneath-the-antarctic-ice-sheet/
see also https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/25/climate/antarctic-ice-sheet-tipping-point-sea-level-rise-climate-intl/index.html
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-024-01465-7Coral bleachings devastate Bali reefs as sea temperatures rise
Ninety percent of the corals Sugiarto had nurtured on the reefs near his village in Bondalem, in northern shore of Bali, lost their colour last December. "It was all white. We were shocked" ... In April, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said more than 54% of the reef areas in the world's oceans are experiencing bleaching-level heat stress, the fourth global bleaching event in the last three decades. Indonesia has roughly 5.1 million hectares of coral reefs and accounts for 18% of the world's total ... While Indonesia's corals are more resilient and tend to recover faster, Marthen said it will not be enough to withstand the rising ocean temperature.
https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/coral-bleachings-devastate-bali-reefs-sea-temperatures-rise-2024-07-05/‘Most of it was dead’: scientists discover one of Great Barrier Reef’s worst coral bleaching events
At least 97% of corals on a reef in the Great Barrier Reef’s north died during one of the worst coral bleaching events the world’s biggest reef system has ever seen, according to new analysis [to] quantify the extent of coral death over a reef affected by this summer’s mass bleaching – the fifth in eight years – that saw heat stress hit record levels across some parts of the world heritage-listed reef ... “At least 97% of the corals had died over those three months. We were there to do our sea cucumber monitoring work, but there was silence amongst us nine researchers. We came out of the water and didn’t know what to say. It’s an iconic reef and most of it was dead.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jun/26/most-of-it-was-dead-scientists-discovers-one-of-great-barrier-reefs-worst-coral-bleaching-events
reporting on a study at https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1619Rising sea levels will disrupt millions of Americans’ lives by 2050, study finds
Critical infrastructure assets that sustain coastal communities will be at risk of monthly flooding by 2050, according to the new research by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS). The vast majority of the assets face the risk of flood disruption every other week, which could make some coastal neighborhoods unlivable within two to three decades ... The number of critical infrastructure assets at risk of disruptive flooding is expected to nearly double compared to 2020, even when assuming a medium rate of climate-driven sea level rise (rather than the worst case scenario) ... UCS researchers identified the critical infrastructure along the entire contiguous US, as well as Guam, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, which face risk of routine flooding, using data including National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tide gauges and three sea level rise scenarios developed by a US Interagency Task Force.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jun/25/rising-sea-levels-flooding‘Whack-a-mole situation’: Algerian officials wrestle with water shortage anger
State not acting fast enough to build desalination stations to deal with dwindling rainfall and resulting drought
Rationing had been introduced to deal with a drought in parts of Algeria and neighbouring Morocco where the amount of rainfall that had historically replenished critical reservoirs was much reduced. Taps had been running dry for months, forcing people in the region – a semi-arid, high-desert plateau increasingly plagued by extreme heat – to queue to access water ... As peak summer season approaches in Algeria, total water reserves in its 81 dams are at only a third of capacity. Algeria, the largest country in Africa, is dominated by the Sahara, which covers three-quarters of its territory.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/27/algerian-officials-wrestle-water-shortage-angerPlastics companies blocked mitigation efforts and may have broken US laws – study
The research from the Center for International Environmental Law (CIEL) details the widespread burdens that plastic pollution places on US cities and states, and argues that plastic producers may be breaking public-nuisance, product-liability and consumer-protection laws ... Drawing on newly revealed internal documents and previous investigations, the authors write that producers knew of these risks and produced and marketed plastics anyway ... plastics producers knew in the 1950s that their products don’t break down and in 1969, documents show, industry interests discussed plastics accumulating in the environment but kept marketing them. As the public grew concerned about plastic pollution, the industry responded with “sophisticated marketing campaigns” to shift blame from producers to consumers ... A February report from the Center for Climate Integrity (CCI) found that companies knew for decades that plastic recycling is not feasible, but promoted it anyway. Both reports add to a “growing body of evidence” showing the plastics crisis was “created and perpetuated by a decades-long campaign of deception”, said Alyssa Johl, CCI vice-president.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jun/26/plastics-companies-blocking-mitigation-efforts
reporting on a study at https://www.ciel.org/reports/make-plastic-polluters-pay/Microplastics are inside us all. What does that mean for our health?
Microplastics are everywhere. Minuscule plastic particles that come from degraded plastic products are found throughout the environment [and] researchers are finding them in almost every part of the human body, including in breast milk, the placenta, testicles, hearts, livers, and kidneys ... studies have drawn associations between microplastics and poor health outcomes, including cardiovascular disease and low male fertility. And chemicals often found in plastics are known to cause a variety of health problems, including cancers, metabolic disorders, attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder, and fertility issues ... production of plastics worldwide has doubled in the last two decades [and] can exist for decades, if not longer, without completely disintegrating ... the harm from microplastics in the body could be compounded by what are known as endocrine disruptor chemicals that are found in many plastics [and can] imitate hormones and disrupt the body’s natural endocrine system, which is responsible for making the hormones that govern processes such as growth and development, metabolism, appetite, mood, and certain aspects of reproduction ... Sathyanarayana has focused her research on studying the impact of exposure to endocrine disrupting chemicals on reproduction and has found that they can have a profound impact. Fetal exposure to endocrine disrupting chemicals has been associated with abnormal development of reproductive organs in male babies, with increased risk of metabolic disorders in childhood, and may be associated with the child developing attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Some of these chemicals have also been linked to lower sperm quality in men. [But] “the reality is we can’t avoid plastics,” she says. “No one can.”
https://www.aamc.org/news/microplastics-are-inside-us-all-what-does-mean-our-health
reporting on a study at https://www.mdpi.com/1422-0067/24/15/12308What it's like living through a 121 degree day
“This is what Indian vulnerability looks like,” says Aditya Valiathan Pillai, who studies policy responses to extreme heat at the New Delhi-based thinktank Sustainable Futures Collaborative. “You have 75% of India's working population, well over 350 million people who are directly heat exposed because of their jobs,” he says, citing World Bank data. Pillai says it’s not just outdoor workers. It includes people who live in slums -- where it’s often hotter than other parts of the city ... India isn’t ready for climate change-induced heatwaves that are pummeling this region, Pillai says. The infrastructure isn’t in place, including data gathering, even as these heatwaves are likely to occur more often, last longer and be more extreme. “What we're seeing today is nowhere close to how bad it's going to get in the next ten, 15 years,” says Pillai. In fact, some areas of India may become the first places on earth to be exposed to heatwaves so extreme that humans will not be able to survive them.
https://www.npr.org/sections/goats-and-soda/2024/06/17/g-s1-4778/extreme-heat-india-new-delhiWe’ve been accidentally cooling the planet — and it’s about to stop
Air pollution, which has killed tens of millions, has also curbed some of the worst effects of a warming planet. Tiny particles from the combustion of coal, oil and gas can reflect sunlight and spur the formation of clouds, shading the planet from the sun’s rays. Since the 1980s, [this aerosol masking has] offset between 40 and 80 percent of the warming caused by greenhouse gases. And now, as society cleans up pollution, that cooling effect is waning [and] the result is even warmer temperatures ... In one new paper, scientists at the University of Maryland argued that the decrease in aerosols could double the rate of warming in the 2020s, compared to the rate since 1980 [and] if aerosols have been masking cooling much more than expected the world could be poised to blow past its climate targets without realizing it.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/06/25/climate-aerosols-shipping-global-cooling/
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01442-3Brighten Clouds to Cool the Planet? It Could Backfire, Study Finds
University of California, San Diego, scientists recently modeled the impact of cloud brightening if deployed on a massive scale, with ships scattering salt into the air across huge swaths of the north Pacific every spring, summer, and fall for 30 years. They found that brightening would cut the risk of dangerous summer heat in North America. Though, their modeling showed it would also curtail rainfall in both Alaska and the Sahel region of Africa. Looking ahead, researchers examined the effect of brightening in 2050, in a world that had warmed by 2 degrees C. In that scenario, brightening would no longer curb the risk of summer heat in the western U.S. It would, however, intensify heat over most of Europe. The findings were published in Nature Climate Change.
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/cloud-brightening-geoengineering-heat-waves
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02046-7.epdfRecord-breaking fires consume Brazil’s Pantanal wetland
The early and intense wildfire season is threatening to exceed the worst blazes on record
Brazil’s Pantanal, the largest tropical wetland on earth, is ablaze, with fires in June breaking historical records for that month. Brazil’s National Institute of Space Research (INPE) has detected 733 fires in the Pantanal biome so far this month, with the previous record for fires in Pantanal for June being 435 registered in 2005. The state of Mato Grosso do Sul, which encompasses 60% of the Brazilian Pantanal, is under a “danger” warning ... Wetlands like the Pantanal are Earth’s most effective carbon sinks – ecosystems that absorb and store more carbon than they release, keeping it away from the atmosphere. At roughly 200,000 square kilometers, the Pantanal comprises about 3% of the globe’s wetlands and plays a key role in the carbon cycle. When these carbon-rich ecosystems burn, vast amounts of heat-trapping gases are released back into the atmosphere, contributing to the greenhouse effect. The wetland is facing a “hydrological crisis scenario” due to an intense drought. The lack of rain began in 2023.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/record-breaking-fires-consume-brazils-pantanal-wetland/1660055Deadly heat in Mexico and US made 35 times more likely by global heating
Such extreme heat spells are four times more likely today than they were at the turn of the millennium, when the planet was 0.5C cooler, the World Weather Attribution (WWA) analysis found ... “heatwaves are getting deadlier … we’ve known about the dangers of climate change at least since the 1970s [but] the world continues to burn huge amounts of oil, gas and coal,” said Friederike Otto, co-author of the study and senior lecturer in climate science at Grantham Institute, at Imperial College London ... The analysis found that the climate crisis made the excessive heat spell about 1.4C hotter during the day – and 35 times more likely than in pre-industrial times. The effect on night temperatures is even stronger, with the analysis finding temperatures about 1.6C hotter – a 200-fold increase due to global heating. Hot nights are particularly dangerous for human health, as the impact of heat is cumulative and the body only begins to rest and recover when temperatures drop below 80F (27C).
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jun/20/mexico-central-america-us-heatwave
reporting on a study at https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/extreme-heat-killing-more-than-100-people-in-mexico-hotter-and-much-more-likely-due-to-climate-change/Global biodiversity study uncovers missing patterns in ecosystem stability
In a paper published today in Nature Ecology & Evolution, researchers from the University of Melbourne and The University of Western Australia report that 74 per cent of global studies on ecosystem stability were focused on the effects of biodiversity loss within [only] a single group of species ... “If we’re only trying to understand stability in a single group of species within a food chain, we are not fully understanding what’s going on,” Mr Srednick said. “Overlooking the wider interactions fails to consider the full implications of biodiversity loss - these implications could result in disruptions to ecosystem productivity and even their collapse.”
https://science.unimelb.edu.au/about/news/global-biodiversity-study-uncovers-missing-patterns-in-ecosystem-stability
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-024-02419-3UN food chief: Poorest areas have zero harvests left
Droughts and flooding have become so common in some of the poorest places on Earth that the land can no longer sustain crops, the director of the World Food Programme’s global office has said ... some of the most deprived areas had now reached a tipping point of having “zero” harvests left, as extreme weather was pushing already degraded land beyond use ... 95% of the world’s land could become degraded by 2050. The UN says that 40% is already degraded ... Environmentalists expect that as soil degrades, failing crops will strain global food supplies and increase migration from affected areas ... Mr Frick said: “How many harvests you have left is largely a function of how we get our food production in tune with the realities of this planet.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c977r51e1z0oChanges in Earth’s Energy Imbalance Since 2000
Earth’s energy imbalance has doubled during the first twenty years of this centuryEarth’s energy imbalance doubled from 0.5 ± 0.2 Wm−2 during the first 10 years of this century to 1.0 ± 0.2 Wm−2 during the past decade. The increase is the result of a 0.9 ± 0.3 Wm−2 increase absorbed solar radiation (ASR) that is partially offset by a 0.4 ± 0.25 Wm−2 increase in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) ... trends in net top-of-atmosphere flux (NET) remain within 0.1 Wm−2 per decade of one another, implying a steady acceleration of climate warming. Northern and southern hemisphere trends in NET are consistent to 0.06 ± 0.31 Wm−2 per decade ... large decreases in stratocumulus and middle clouds over the sub-tropics and decreases in low and middle clouds at mid-latitudes are the primary reasons for increasing ASR trends in the northern hemisphere (NH). These changes are especially large over the eastern and northern Pacific Ocean.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10712-024-09838-8World will miss target of tripling renewable electricity generation by 2030 – IEA
Analysis of policies of nearly 150 countries shows shortfall
The world is off track to meet the goal of tripling renewable electricity generation by 2030, a target viewed as vital to enable a swift global transition away from fossil fuels ... Governments should include targets and policies on renewables in their national action plans for the climate (called nationally determined contributions, or NDCs), which are a requirement under the Paris agreement, the IEA found. Many currently fail to do so, even though vast increases in renewable power are essential to meeting the treaty’s aspiration of limiting temperature rises to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jun/04/world-will-miss-target-of-tripling-renewable-electricity-generation-by-2030-ieaLuxury homes on these beaches are losing value fast, as effects of climate change hit hard
Some of the nation’s priciest coastal real estate is in an increasingly precarious position due to climate change. A Nantucket home listed last summer for just over $2 million sold early this year for just $600,000 ... A barely remarkable Nor’easter wiped away an astounding 70 feet of the beach it sits on, thanks to sea level rise and unusually intense rainfall ... the effects of climate change are already hitting the market — and at a faster pace than most expected ... “those houses, if they weren’t at erosion risk, would have sold for, I don’t know, 10 or 12 million ... I saw houses selling and I thought that’s not worth that, it’s falling in the ocean”... Looking at ZIP codes just on the East and Gulf coasts of the United States, 33 have a median home value of at least $1 million. In just these areas a combined 77,005 properties are at significant flood risk, according to models by First Street, a climate risk data and analytics firm. That is roughly $100 billion in potential losses ... On another Nantucket beach, the rising ocean has pushed sand so far that it’s burying homes. Sand covered two homes up to the windows and uncovered the septic system and utility wires. Once those are exposed, the town has to condemn the property ... John Conforti lives just next to those two homes. Sand has risen so far it now covers his entire front yard ... He has owned his home for 42 years and already moved it back from the beach once. “We all say one more year,” said Conforti. “It’s unbelievable what’s happened.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/14/luxury-homes-on-these-beaches-are-losing-value-fast-as-effects-of-climate-change-hit-hard.htmlIt’s so hot in India, an insurer is helping thousands of women buy food
Fifty thousand women in 22 districts across the states of Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Gujarat received $5 payments as temperatures topped 40 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) last month in several parts of the country. “This is the first time that insurance payouts and a direct cash assistance program have been combined to supplement the income of women when it’s dangerously hot,” said Kathy Baughman McLeod, CEO of Climate Resilience for All, a not-for-profit organization that designed the insurance in partnership with India’s Self-Employed Women’s Association (SEWA), a trade union with nearly three million members.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/its-so-hot-in-india-an-insurer-is-helping-thousands-of-women-buy-food/1658835Climate records keep getting shattered. Here is what you need to know
The European Union’s climate-watching agency Copernicus declared last month that it was the hottest May on record, marking the 12th straight monthly record high. Separately, the World Meteorological Organization estimated that there's almost a one-in-two chance that average global temperatures from 2024 to 2028 will surpass the hoped-for warming limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial times ... climate scientists say warming trends are following what they have studied and predicted based on the buildup of carbon dioxide from rising fossil fuel use. In 2023, the levels of those heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere reached historic highs ... U.N. studies show massive changes to Earth’s ecosystem are more likely to begin between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius of warming.
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2024-06-05/climate-records-keep-shattering-how-worried-should-we-beZombie fires in the Arctic smoulder underground and refuse to die
Atmospheric warming above ground can cause peat soils to suddenly heat up to smouldering,without any spark or other ignition These zombie fires may be a case of climate change-driven spontaneous combustion ... our model captures how certain microbes generate heat while breaking down soil and releasing its carbon into the atmosphere ... those microbes can generate so much heat that underground peat can smoulder at around 80°C over the winter, ready to ignite in spring. And this can happen without there ever having been a fire in that spot above ground, and without the weather above ground reaching the sorts of temperatures that would normally be needed for soil to burn. We call this new state the hot metastable state of peat soils. In this context, “metastable” means a long burn – the hot state lasts for a long but finite time, up to ten years, until the peat burns out. Our other key finding is that a sudden transition from the regular cold state to the hot metastable state can be triggered by realistic climate patterns alone, including summer heat waves and global warming scenarios.
https://theconversation.com/zombie-fires-in-the-arctic-smoulder-underground-and-refuse-to-die-whats-causing-them-221945
reporting on a study at https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rspa.2022.0647Global Warming Is Changing Plants’ Pollination Patterns – and It Could Have Disastrous Consequences for Food Stability
Climate change has led to reduced pollen production in plants and less pollen diversity, potentially threatening food production. The study specifically explores how changes in flowering times and extreme weather events affect the availability of critical food sources for insect pollinators. “By analyzing 21 years of historical data, a very long period that provides clear views, the research offers detailed perspectives on the consequences of habitat loss, fragmented landscapes, and changes in plant assemblages on pollination services ... Without effective pollination, many crops vital to the global food supply could fail,” Balmaki warned.
https://scitechdaily.com/global-warming-is-changing-plants-pollination-patterns-and-it-could-have-disastrous-consequences-for-food-stability/
reporting on a study at https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00442-024-05533-yThe end of the great northern forests?
The tiny tree-killing beetle wreaking havoc on our ancient giants
In Canada, just one species, the mountain pine beetle, affected 200,000 sq km – an area almost the size of Uganda – between 2000 and 2020, with other species causing outbreaks elsewhere across the country. In Europe, forest disturbances from bark beetles have soared, particularly affecting Norwegian spruce monocultures. In the Czech Republic, the centre of the most recent outbreak on the continent, between up to 5.4% of all spruces were damaged each year between 2017 and 2019, transforming their land sector from a carbon sink to a source, with disastrous consequences for the forestry industry. In California, bark beetle species killed 163m trees between 2010 and 2019, according to the US Forest Service. Outbreaks in the vast taiga of Siberia have been recorded, but their impact is largely unknown. Bark beetles are a highly diverse group of insects, and a natural part of ecosystems, with hundreds of species across the planet. But a subset of this insect family have now cleared swathes of forest in Canada, Siberia, Scandinavia, the US, Mongolia, China and Japan ... the unpredictability of temperatures in a warming world has made bark beetle behaviour more unpredictable, sometimes boosted by the heat, weakened trees and an abundance of monoculture plantations ... Outbreaks are spreading north to parts of the world that had previously been too cold for the insects. Usually, their larvae are killed in freezing conditions, but in some places rising temperatures mean that no longer happens.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jun/05/collapse-northern-boreal-forests-drought-fire-beetles-climate-crisis-ancient-trees-carbon-sinkWhat caused Earth's biggest mass extinction?
The end-Permian "Great Dying" was caused by global warming that left ocean animals unable to breathe As temperatures rose and the metabolism of marine animals sped up, the warmer waters could not hold enough oxygen for them to survive. The study is published in the Dec. 7 issue of Science ... Before ongoing volcanic eruptions in Siberia created a greenhouse-gas planet, oceans had temperatures and oxygen levels similar to today's. The researchers then raised greenhouse gases in the model to the level required to make tropical ocean temperatures at the surface some 10 degrees Celsius higher, matching conditions at that time. The model reproduces the resulting dramatic changes in the oceans. Oceans lost about 80 percent of their oxygen ... “The conventional wisdom in the paleontological community has been that the Permian extinction was especially severe in tropical waters.” Yet the model shows the hardest hit were organisms most sensitive to oxygen found far from the tropics ... high-latitude species, especially those with high oxygen demands, were nearly completely wiped out ... "The signature of that kill mechanism, climate warming and oxygen loss, is this geographic pattern that's predicted by the model and then discovered in the fossils," Penn said ... "At the end of the day, it turned out that the size of the dead zones really doesn't seem to be the key thing for the extinction ... most organisms can be excluded from seawater at oxygen levels that aren't anywhere close to anoxic." Warming leading to insufficient oxygen explains more than half of the marine diversity losses. The authors say that other changes, such as acidification or shifts in the productivity of photosynthetic organisms, likely acted as additional causes.
https://sustainability.stanford.edu/news/what-caused-earths-biggest-mass-extinctionOceans face ‘triple threat’ of extreme heat, oxygen loss and acidification
The study’s lead author warned that the world’s oceans were already being pushed into an extreme new state because of the climate crisis. “The impacts of this have already been seen and felt,” said Joel Wong, a researcher at ETH Zurich, who cited the well-known example of the heat “blob” that has caused the die-off of marine life in the Pacific Ocean. “Intense extreme events like these are likely to happen again in the future and will disrupt marine ecosystems and fisheries around the world,” he added. The research, published in AGU Advances, analyzed occurrences of extreme heat, deoxygenation and acidification ... Climate scientists have been alarmed by the relentless onward rise of heat in the ocean, which has hit extraordinary heights in recent months. “The heat has been literally off the charts, it’s been astonishing to see,” said Andrea Dutton, a geologist and climate scientist at the University of Wisconsin–Madison ... the oceans are also paying another heavy price for soaking up huge volumes of heat and carbon dioxide ... The extra CO2 is making seawater more acidic, dissolving the shells of marine creatures, as well as starving the ocean of oxygen. “This means that marine life is being squeezed out of places it is able to survive,” said Dutton. “This paper makes clear that this is happening now.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jun/04/extreme-heat-oceans-acidification
reporting on a study at https://doi.org/10.1029/2023AV001059It’s hurricane season. Good luck getting affordable homeowners’ insurance
As insurance companies struggle to stay afloat, battered by elevated inflation and the growing frequency of catastrophic storms made worse by climate change, it’s become even tougher for homeowners to find affordable insurance options ... there has been an uptick in catastrophic hurricanes, wildfires and convective storms – like severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, Nyce said. “These storms don’t only affect one property at a time. They affect a large number of properties,” he said. “That changes the dynamic for an insurance company” ... Only two of the 20 largest US homeowners’ insurance companies were profitable last year ... While property insurance is not mandated by law, most lenders require it for mortgage holders. That can leave many homeowners carrying mortgages scrambling if they are unexpectedly dropped from their insurance. Most states have something called an “insurer of last resort” [but] they can be costly or provide less coverage. Still, these government-backed insurance companies have ballooned in popularity as some homeowners run out of options.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/01/economy/homeowners-insurance-cost-hurricane-weather/index.htmlAbrupt reduction in shipping emission as an inadvertent geoengineering termination shock produces substantial radiative warming
The warming effect of anthropogenic greenhouse gases has been partially balanced by the cooling effect of anthropogenic aerosols. In 2020, fuel regulations abruptly reduced the emission of sulfur dioxide from international shipping by about 80% and created an inadvertent geoengineering termination shock with global impact. Here we estimate the regulation leads to a radiative forcing of Wm−2 averaged over the global ocean. The amount of radiative forcing could lead to a doubling (or more) of the warming rate in the 2020 s compared with the rate since 1980 with strong spatiotemporal heterogeneity. The warming effect is consistent with the recent observed strong warming in 2023 and expected to make the 2020 s anomalously warm.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01442-3
see also https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/30/termination-shock-cut-in-ship-pollution-sparked-global-heating-spurtCorporations invested in carbon offsets that were ‘likely junk’, analysis says
Delta, Gucci, Volkswagen, ExxonMobil, Disney, easyJet and Nestlé are among the major corporations to have purchased millions of carbon credits from climate friendly projects that are “likely junk” or worthless when it comes to offsetting their greenhouse gas emissions ... for 33 of the top 50 corporate buyers, more than a third of their entire offsets portfolio is “likely junk” – suggesting at least some claims about carbon neutrality and emission reductions have been exaggerated according to the analysis. The fundamental failings leading to a “likely junk” ranking include whether emissions cuts would have happened anyway, as is often the case with large hydroelectric dams, or if the emissions were just shifted elsewhere, a common issue in forestry offset projects ... The fossil fuel industry is by far the largest investor in the world’s most popular 50 CO2 offsetting schemes. At least 43% of the 81m CO2 credits purchased by the oil and gas majors are for projects that have at least one fundamental flaw and are “probably junk”, according to the analysis. The transport industry, which accounts for about a fifth of all global planet-warming emissions, has also relied heavily on carbon offsetting projects to meet climate goals. Just over 42% of the total credits (55m) purchased by airlines and 38% purchased by automakers (21m) for the top 50 projects are likely worthless at reducing emissions, the analysis found ... “Overall, carbon offsets are, according to most expert analyses, neither credible nor scalable to the urgency and scale of the carbon dioxide problem,” said Richard Heede, co-director of the Climate Accountability Institute, a nonprofit research and education group.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/30/corporate-carbon-offsets-credits
see also https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/31/market-value-of-carbon-offsets-drops-61-aoeThe climate refugee crisis is here
Catastrophic flooding in southern Brazil has forced hundreds of thousands of people from their homes.
For years, scientists have warned that climate change would displace millions of people, reordering the world’s human presence as people searched for safety. The World Bank has estimated that more than 216 million people could be driven from their homes by sea level rise, flooding, desertification and other effects of warming temperatures. The Institute for Economics and Peace said the figure could reach 1.2 billion people. A future characterized by “climate refugees,” the European Parliament reported, was coming. That future now appears to have arrived. Floods in Pakistan in 2022 displaced an estimated 8 million people. Floods in Ethiopia in 2023 and Kenya this year forced hundreds of thousands more from their homes. And now, Brazil. “Brazil is not going to be a one-off,” said Andrew Harper, a senior official at the U.N. High Commission for Refugees. “What we are seeing is the start of something that will become more frequent and more extreme and lead to more people left vulnerable, with no choice but to move to a safer location.” The disaster, Brazilians say, has the makings of a historic pivot point.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/05/28/brazil-floods-climate-refugeesThe Lancet: Dramatic declines in global fertility rates set to transform global population patterns by 2100
By 2050, 76% of countries will not have high enough fertility rates to sustain population size; this will increase to 97% of by 2100The world is approaching a low-fertility future [where] more than 97% of countries and territories will have fertility rates below what is necessary to sustain population size ... countries need to have a total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.1 children per person who could give birth, to sustain long-term generational replacement of the population ... the researchers estimate that by 2050, 155 of 204 (76%) countries and territories will be below the replacement level of fertility. The number of countries and territories below replacement level is predicted to further increase to 198 of 204 (97%) by 2100 ... The new study also predicts huge shifts in the global pattern of livebirths from higher- to lower-income countries. In 2021, 29% of the world’s babies were born in sub-Saharan Africa; by 2100, this is projected to rise to over half (54%) of all babies ... The global TFR has more than halved over the past 70 years, from around five children for each female in 1950 to 2.2 children in 2021—with over half of all countries and territories (110 of 204) below the population replacement level of 2.1 births per female as of 2021. Over the coming decades, global fertility is predicted to decline even further, reaching a TFR of around 1.8 in 2050, and 1.6 in 2100—well below the replacement level. The TFR in Western Europe is predicted to be 1.44 in 2050, dropping to 1.37 in 2100.
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1038195
reporting on a study at https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2824%2900550-6Co-exposure to 55 endocrine-disrupting chemicals linking diminished sperm quality
Isolated effects of single endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) on male reproductive health have been studied extensively, but their mixture effect remains unelucidated ... we [simultaneously measured] 55 EDCs in the urine for exposure burden. Regression analyses were restricted to highly detected EDCs and those with consistently elevated risk were further [studied, which] demonstrated that co-exposure to top-ranked EDCs was related to reduced sperm total and progressive motility ... Co-exposure to a range of EDCs is mainly associated with deteriorated sperm quality, but to a lesser extent on sperm quantity.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412024001570Mexico's 'heat dome' has already killed dozens of people as hotter days loom
Mexico has been reeling from a high-pressure weather phenomenon known as a "heat dome," which has trapped hot air over much of the country, creating record-breaking temperatures that have surpassed 45 degrees Celsius (113 degrees Fahrenheit) in some places. The 10-day period overlapped with the second and third heat waves out of five forecast for March to July by the country's top weather agencies. The third heat wave is ongoing ... Sweltering heat has exacerbated a nationwide drought and strained Mexico's power grid, with monkeys dropping dead from trees due to suspected dehydration. Imminent relief is not yet on the horizon, according to researchers at the National Autonomous University of Mexico. Mexico could experience its hottest temperatures on record in the next 10-15 days.
https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/mexicos-heat-dome-has-already-killed-dozens-people-hotter-days-loom-2024-05-24/Report Details ‘Catastrophic Decline’ of Migratory Fish
Populations of salmon, trout, eel, sturgeon, and other migrating freshwater fish have shrunk by 81 percent on average since 1970, a new report finds ... fish have been in decline for 30 years, and that their collapse is most severe in Latin America and in Europe. Humans are driving the losses by overfishing, polluting waterways, damming rivers, converting wetlands to farmland, and by fueling warming.
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/migrating-fish-decline
reporting on a study at https://worldfishmigrationfoundation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/LPI_migratory-freshwater-fishes-2024_Technical-report.pdfLife in the Dirt Is Hard. And Climate Change Isn’t Helping.
Heat and drought are taking a toll on the tiny soil creatures that help to lock away planet-warming carbon Thousands of species of mites and springtails, living in soil all around the world, provide a crucial service by munching organic matter like fallen leaves and wood, transferring its planet-warming carbon into the ground and releasing nutrients that help new plants grow. But now, a new analysis that combined data from 38 different studies on the organisms suggests that drought in some parts of the world, often supercharged by climate change, are killing them off at alarming rates ... some of the soft-bodied creatures are very sensitive to moisture in their environment. When the soil dries up during times of aridity they, too, can dry up, shrivel and die. And, the more severe the dry spell, the more severe the reduction in their abundance.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/24/climate/mites-springtails-climate-change.html
reporting on a study at https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.17305Something very strange is happening to tornadoes across the US
[I]n the first months of 2024, there has been a strange and devastating uptick in twister occurrences. April witnessed more than 100 tornadoes in the US in just one week, and, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information, a total of 384 were reported throughout the month. That is more than double the year-on-year average and the second-highest on record [and] have also seen tornadoes wreaking havoc in unexpected places. Tornadoes in Nebraska and Iowa are much further north and east in the country than is typically expected for April, when tornadoes are usually concentrated in the south.
https://www.sciencefocus.com/planet-earth/something-strange-happening-to-tornadoesOcean heat and La Nina combo likely mean more Atlantic hurricanes this summer
https://apnews.com/article/hurricanes-busy-season-warm-water-la-nina-0fe7c4cb0367e8b56ac63ff663839df0[Thwaites] ‘doomsday’ glacier is more vulnerable than scientists once thought
Could raise global sea levels by up to two feet if it melts; far more exposed to warm ocean water than previously believed.
Thwaites Glacier, the world’s widest, bobs up and down on daily tides. As it lifts up, warm seawater is shooting farther under the ice than scientists thought — up to 6 kilometers, or 3.7 miles, according to satellite data ... The degradation of Thwaites, popularly known as the “doomsday glacier,” means the warm ocean could eat further into the West Antarctic ice sheet and bring with it the potential for massive sea level rise. “The water is able to penetrate beneath the ice over much longer distances than we thought,” said Eric Rignot, a scientist with the University of California at Irvine and NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, who led the research. “It’s kind of sending a shock wave down our spine to see that water moving kilometers” ... the ability of water to squeeze in this way, even running up a slope that the ice has been hooked onto, is a new factor increasing the glacier’s instability.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/05/20/thwaites-glacier-melt-sea-level-rise/
see also https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/antarcticas-doomsday-glacier-is-melting-even-faster-than-scientists-thought/
reporting on a study at https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2404766121Pollution Paradox: How Cleaning Up Smog Drives Ocean Warming
A vast expanse of ocean stretching from Alaska to California periodically warms by up to 4 degrees Celsius
https://e360.yale.edu/features/aerosols-warming-climate-change
reporting on a study at https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2313797121
reporting on a study at https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37945564/Microplastics found in every human testicle in study
Sperm counts in men have been falling for decades, with chemical pollution such as pesticides implicated by many studies. Microplastics have also recently been discovered in human blood, placentas and breast milk, indicating widespread contamination of people’s bodies ... microplastics have polluted the entire planet, from the summit of Mount Everest to the deepest oceans. People are known to consume the tiny particles via food and water as well as breathing them in ... “At the beginning, I doubted whether microplastics could penetrate the reproductive system,” said Prof Xiaozhong Yu, at the University of New Mexico in the US. “When I first received the results for dogs I was surprised. I was even more surprised when I received the results for humans ... PVC can release a lot of chemicals that interfere with spermatogenesis and it contains chemicals that cause endocrine disruption.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/20/microplastics-human-testicles-study-sperm-counts
reporting on a study at https://academic.oup.com/toxsci/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/toxsci/kfae060/7673133Argentina's soy crushers face 'disaster' as bean shortage sharpens, chamber head says
Argentina's giant soybean processing plants are running out of soybeans after a historic drought cut the crop in half, the head of the country's grains export chamber told Reuters, and this will leave well over two-thirds of factory capacity idle. For years, the South American country was the world's top exporter of processed soy oil and meal. Its crown slipped this year after its crop was ravaged and as the indebted government has pushed exports of beans to bring in dollars. "We are in a disastrous year," said Gustavo Idigoras, president of the grain exporters and crushing chamber CIARA-CEC, adding he expected idle capacity at the country's crushing plants along the Parana river to shoot past the current 65%. "Idle capacity could grow significantly," he said, pointing out that the next soy harvest would not be until April and there would likely be just 3 million metric tons of soybeans left by the end of the month to last until then. "With those 3 million tons we have to survive until May 2024," he said. "We want to turn the page to see if next year we get a better climate and higher farm production."
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/argentinas-soy-crushers-face-disaster-bean-shortage-sharpens-chamber-head-says-2023-10-05/Brazil counts cost of worst-ever floods with little hope of waters receding soon
Death toll in southern state of Rio Grande do Sul increasing daily as authorities plan four ‘tent cities’ for 77,000 displaced people Three weeks after one of Brazil’s worst-ever floods hit its southernmost state, killing 155 people and forcing 540,000 from their homes, experts have warned that water levels will take at least another two weeks to drop. The death toll across Rio Grande do Sul is still increasing daily, and more than 77,000 displaced people remain in public shelters, prompting the state government to announce plans to build four temporary “tent cities” to accommodate them. On Friday, the state’s governor, Eduardo Leite, said the costs to rebuild will be “much higher” than the 19bn reais (£2.9bn) he initially estimated. Several cities are still underwater, including the state’s capital, Porto Alegre, where 46 of the 96 neighbourhoods were flooded. Even residents of non-flooded areas have had to endure days without electricity and potable water. Of the seven main rivers in the state, five are still above the maximum water level, and experts say there is little hope the waters will recede anytime soon. “These rains were typical of the climate crisis: very intense, with a large volume of water concentrated in a short period”, said Anderson Ruhoff, professor at the Institute of Hydraulic Research (IPH) of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul. In just three days, the state saw the amount of rain normally seen over four months.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/19/brazil-floods-tollLosses Pile Up in Top-Rated Bonds Backed by Commercial Real Estate Debt
Office Loans Fall Behind on Payments
[T]he fact the pain is reaching all the way up to top-ranked holders, overwhelming safeguards put in place to ensure their full repayment, is a testament to how deeply distressed pockets of the US commercial real estate market have become ... “Now that we’ve seen the first commercial mortgage backed securities get hit, other AAA bonds are bound to see losses,” said Lea Overby, a CMBS strategist at Barclays ... about $52 billion, or 31%, of all office loans in commercial mortgage bonds were in trouble in March, according to KBRA Analytics, up from 16% a year ago ... observers say CMBS investors should expect more losses on bonds originally rated AAA in the months to come.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-23/cmbs-buyers-suffer-first-loss-on-aaa-debt-since-financial-crisisInsurance: A Hidden Crisis In US Housing
In places most prone to wildfires and hurricanes, state “insurers of last resort” are absorbing trillions of dollars in risk ... But even as states have assumed more and more risk, they’ve largely dodged a fundamental question: How will they cover claims in the wake of a truly major catastrophe? There are limited options—levies on private insurers or state residents, or more state borrowing—and none of them are good. Most states haven’t thought this far ahead, or if they have, they’re not explicit about where the money will come from. Out of 36 residual insurance plans that offer coverage for natural catastrophes, 21 don’t explicitly detail how they’d pay deficits, according to new research from consulting group Milliman. States have turned these plans into “a magic hiding place to disappear risk that just gets too big for the private market,” said Nancy Watkins, a principal and consulting actuary based in Milliman’s San Francisco office ... California is one of those states that doesn’t explicitly spell out what it will do if claims force it into deficit. The state department of insurance says that current rates are adequate to cover losses, and that there are safeguards in place to make policyholders whole. But the Personal Insurance Federation of California, an industry trade group, disagrees. It points out that the state can’t know whether rates would cover losses because the plan hasn’t performed the kinds of stress tests designed to understand the consequences of another bad fire season ... The plan isn’t subject to the kinds of capital requirements designed to prevent private insurers from taking on too much risk, according to the statement. A spokesperson for the plan said that “information regarding [its] financial situation isn’t publicly disclosed.” It’s hard to overstate the role that insurance plays in the modern American economy. Banks won’t make mortgage loans for uninsurable properties; without those loans, the real estate market slows to a crawl, which in turn eats away household wealth and the tax revenue that state and local governments rely on. For insurers to play their part, they have to feel confident predicting how much damage they might have to cover. To do that, they build models of the future based on what’s happened in the past. They don’t have to be right all the time, just enough to win more than they lose. Climate change has made that much harder ... When market conditions become too hostile, private insurers limit their exposure in a different way: They stop writing new policies. When property owners see premiums skyrocketing or private insurers leaving, it’s one signal that the risks of disaster have grown beyond what the market will bear. Maybe it’s no longer safe to live—or at least, to invest significant wealth—in such places. Maybe it’s time to move. That’s not a popular message for homeowners or their elected representatives, a group that includes, in 11 states, the insurance commissioner. Given the central role that insurance plays in the real estate market and, therefore, state revenue and population growth, politicians are tremendously motivated to keep insurance prices low, muting that market signal ... In his campaign for governor the next year, then-Republican Charlie Crist promised to freeze premiums charged by Citizens Property Insurance Corp., the state’s insurer of last resort. When he took office in 2007, he scuttled a 75% planned increase. He set an important precedent. Florida, which has some of the riskiest assets in the US, has kept Citizens’ premiums at far less than the private market for storm insurance. Its policy count has almost tripled since 2018. If Citizens faces a shortfall, it will allow insurance companies to levy a fee on every policy in the state. That means anyone with property insurance would be on the hook ... If a catastrophic event triggers a massive assessment, it could force some insurers into bankruptcy, said Rex Frazier, head of PIFC. “Or would the state step in and say, ‘no, we’ll allow them to put a surcharge on all of their policyholders.’ Who knows? We don’t have the answer.” For companies that live and die by their ability to forecast and manage risk, that kind of uncertainty poses a real problem ... Damage from wildfires and hailstorms made Colorado one of the least profitable states for home insurers in the five years through 2021. As a result, premiums in the state jumped more than 50% between 2019 and October 2022. Even so, three-quarters of home insurers reduced their exposure to the state in the first 10 months of 2022 ... it may come back to taxpayers, said Colorado Insurance Commissioner Michael Conway. “If climate change is beginning to increase claims and payments, which ultimately it is, it’s fundamentally the consumer and society in general that bears the brunt of that,” he said.
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2024-home-insurance-real-estate-crisis/
see also https://grist.org/extreme-weather/home-insurance-midwest-climate-disasters/As Insurers Around the U.S. Bleed Cash From Climate Shocks, Homeowners Lose
The insurance turmoil caused by climate change — which had been concentrated in Florida, California and Louisiana — is fast becoming a contagion. In 2023, insurers lost money on homeowners coverage in 18 states, more than a third of the country ... up from 12 states five years ago, and eight states in 2013. The result is that insurance companies are raising premiums by as much as 50 percent or more, cutting back on coverage or leaving entire states altogether. Nationally, over the last decade, insurers paid out more in claims than they received in premiums, according to the ratings firm Moody’s, and those losses are increasing. The growing tumult is affecting people whose homes have never been damaged and who have dutifully paid their premiums, year after year. Cancellation notices have left them scrambling to find coverage to protect what is often their single biggest investment. As a last resort, many are ending up in high-risk insurance pools created by states that are backed by the public and offer less coverage than standard policies. By and large, state regulators lack strategies to restore stability to the market ... Without insurance, banks won’t issue a mortgage; without a mortgage, most people can’t buy a home. With fewer buyers, real estate values are likely to decline .... experts say the past decade is different because of climate change. As the planet warms and storms and fires grow more intense, the cost of disasters is increasing faster than insurers can afford. A financial model designed for a mix of good and bad years threatens to unravel as more years become bad years. “It’s becoming an untenable situation,” said Sridhar Manyem, senior director of industry research at AM Best, a company that rates the financial strength of insurers ... global warming has made weather unpredictable, leaving insurers unsure how to price policies. “Climate change is real,” said Bill Montgomery, chief executive of Celina Insurance Group, one of the companies that has left Iowa in the past year. “We can’t raise rates fast enough or high enough” ... Those who can’t get insurance on the private market are flooding into state-mandated insurance pools of last resort, whose losses are ultimately borne by the public ... Even the insurance companies are having trouble getting coverage. Reinsurance companies, global giants like Swiss Re, insure the insurers, sharing some of the risk of the policies they write. As disasters worsen, reinsurers have become more reluctant to underwrite insurance [making] insurance companies even more conservative about where to do business ... In 2023, for every dollar insurers earned from homeowners policies in Iowa, they paid out $1.44 in losses and other costs. It was the fourth straight year of losses for Iowa’s home insurance market. Reinsurers started to back away. “Insurance is based on optimism,” said Doug Ommen, Iowa’s insurance commissioner. “You can’t sustain a severe loss every year” ... Pekin [Insurance] says it has “paused” writing homeowners insurance in Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Wisconsin, citing the increased frequency and severity of storms. Secura is dropping customers in Illinois, Indiana and Michigan. The homeowners insurance market in each of those states has become unprofitable ... In Arkansas, insurers spent $1.66 last year for every dollar they earned in home insurance premiums. In Kentucky, which was rocked by tornadoes and record rainfall in 2023, they spent $1.67 for every dollar they earned. And in Tennessee, where storms were severe enough in December for a presidential disaster declaration, insurers spent $1.25 last year for every dollar they collected in premiums. The challenge facing the market “is probably unparalleled in recent decades,” said Kelley Erstine, president of the association that represents independent insurance agents in Arkansas. A struggling homeowners insurance market “used to be a coastal problem,” Mr. Erstine said. “It’s now ubiquitous. It’s found in every corner of our country” ... In the West, climate change has dried out wooded areas, making them increasingly susceptible to wildfires. In Arizona and Washington State, insurers’ annual losses for homeowners coverage have more than doubled over the past decade, before accounting for inflation. In Utah, losses more than tripled [and] most states lack a comprehensive plan to restore the market.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/13/climate/insurance-homes-climate-change-weather.html
very good NY Times Podcast version at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6B-obc1GlWIEconomic damage from climate change six times worse than thought – report
A 1C increase in global temperature leads to a 12% decline in world gross domestic product (GDP), the researchers found, a far higher estimate than that of previous analyses. The world has already warmed by more than 1C (1.8F) since pre-industrial times and many climate scientists predict a 3C (5.4F) rise will occur [which] will cause “precipitous declines in output, capital and consumption that exceed 50% by 2100” the paper states.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/17/economic-damage-climate-change-report‘Impossible’ heatwave struck Philippines in April, scientists find
Human-caused climate crisis brought soaring temperatures across Asia, from Gaza to Delhi to Manila
The record-breaking heatwave that scorched the Philippines in April would have been impossible without the climate crisis, scientists have found. Searing heat above 40C (104F) struck across Asia in April, causing deaths, water shortages, crop losses and widespread school closures. The extreme heat was made 45 times more likely in India ... latest study to assess the role of human-caused global heating in worsening extreme weather shows how severe the impacts are already ... Another “impossible” heatwave hit west Africa and the Sahel in late March, again causing deaths, and reaching 48.5C.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/14/impossible-heatwave-philippines-april-scientistsWorld’s top climate scientists expect global heating to blast past 1.5C target
Planet is headed for at least 2.5C of heating with disastrous results for humanity, poll of hundreds of scientists findsAlmost 80% of the respondents, all from the authoritative Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), foresee at least 2.5C of global heating above preindustrial levels, while almost half anticipate at least 3C (5.4F). Only 6% thought the internationally agreed 1.5C (2.7F) limit will be met ... “I think we are headed for major societal disruption within the next five years,” said Gretta Pecl, at the University of Tasmania. “[Authorities] will be overwhelmed by extreme event after extreme event, food production will be disrupted.” The Guardian approached every contactable lead author or review editor of IPCC reports since 2018. The results show that many of the most knowledgeable people on the planet expect climate havoc to unfold in the coming decades. The experts were clear on why the world is failing to tackle the climate crisis. A lack of political will was cited by almost three-quarters of the respondents.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/08/world-scientists-climate-failure-survey-global-temperaturePersistent Brazil floods raise specter of climate migration
With hundreds of thousands of families fleeing the floods, the disaster - which has killed at least 147 people, with 127 still missing - could touch off one of Brazil's biggest cases of climate migration in recent history. The record devastation in Rio Grande do Sul follows floods in the second half of last year, leading many of the 538,000 people now displaced from their homes to consider [migration]. For the third time in seven months, businessman Cassiano Baldasso had to remove wheelbarrows of mud from his home only to see the waters rise again. He says he has had enough. Mayor Mateus Trojan said many of Muçum's 5,000 residents will have to relocate. Governor Eduardo Leite has said initial calculations show Rio Grande do Sul will need at least 19 billion reais ($3.7 billion) to rebuild from the disaster.
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/persistent-brazil-floods-raise-specter-climate-migration-2024-05-13/Brazil flooding death toll rises to 90 as more than 155,000 people displaced
Floods hit food silos, disrupt routes to major grains port
Photographs of the Porto Alegre airport, one of Brazil’s busiest, showed its main terminal had been completely inundated ... “The state is facing a war-like situation,” Leite told reporters on Sunday as President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva flew to the region to oversee rescue efforts. One of the worst-affected cities is the state capital, Porto Alegre, which sits along the Guaíba river. “Porto Alegre has been devastated, leaving virtually the whole city without its supply of water, electricity and food,” the newspaper O Globo reported ... Four major highways that connect the capital with the rest of the state have been completely blocked. Across Rio Grande do Sul, an estimated 1.3 million people have been affected by the disaster caused by a week of intense rain, according to local authorities [and] there was little indication that Rio Grande do Sul’s moment of misery was near its end. Authorities warned that the flood water that has overwhelmed the state capital would soon begin moving elsewhere, swamping surrounding areas from which residents were being evacuated. Meanwhile, weather forecasters predicted new storms and heavy rain in the southern section of the state.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/07/brazil-flooding-death-toll-displaced-missing
see also https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/brazil-floods-disrupt-rail-road-access-major-grains-ports-2024-05-07/Global peak water limit of future groundwater withdrawals
Over the past 50 years, humans have extracted the Earth’s groundwater stocks at a steep rate, largely to fuel global agro-economic development. Given society’s growing reliance on groundwater, we explore ‘peak water limits’ to investigate whether, when and where humanity might reach peak groundwater extraction ... we simulate groundwater withdrawals across 235 water basins under 900 future scenarios of global change over the twenty-first century [and] find that global non-renewable groundwater withdrawals exhibit a distinct peak-and-decline signature, comparable to historical observations of other depletable resources (for example, minerals), in nearly all (98%) scenarios, peaking on average around mid-century, followed by a decline through 2100 ... exposing about half (44%) of the global population to groundwater stress. Most of these basins are in countries with the highest current extraction rates, including the United States, Mexico, Pakistan, India, China, Saudi Arabia and Iran.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-024-01306-w
see also https://www.newscientist.com/article/2430674-around-half-the-world-could-lose-easily-accessible-groundwater-by-2050/
see also https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-13430787/California-Texas-Midwest-states-groundwater.htmlRapid climate change: Netherlands needs to prepare for heat, drought & flooding
The Netherlands’ climate is changing rapidly and is becoming hotter, wetter, and dryer, [said] the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) ... The current climate risks already have “a major impact on our daily lives” and are “expected to only increase in the future” ... Over the past 30 years, weather record after weather record has toppled in the Netherlands and it’s happening faster than expected.
https://nltimes.nl/2024/05/14/rapid-climate-change-netherlands-needs-prepare-heat-drought-floodingAs the Arctic tundra warms, soil microbes likely will ramp up CO2 production
Climate change is warming the Arctic tundra about four times faster than the rest of the planet. Now, a study suggests that rising temperatures will spur underground microbes there to produce more carbon dioxide — potentially creating a feedback loop that worsens climate change ... Scientists have long suspected that warming will wake this sleeping giant, prompting soil microbes to release more of the greenhouse gas CO2. But it’s been difficult to demonstrate in field studies ... During the summer growing season, the researchers placed clear, open-topped plastic chambers [that warmed] the air inside by an average of 1.4 degrees Celsius. The researchers monitored how much CO2 microbes in the soil released into the air and compared that data with measurements from nearby exposed patches. The study, published online April 17 in Nature, found that the 1.4C temperature increase caused an average 30 percent increase in CO2 respiration across the experimental sites compared with the exposed sites.
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/arctic-tundra-soil-microbe-carbon-dioxide
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07274-72023 summer warmth unparalleled over the past 2,000 years
2023 has been reported as the hottest year on record ... Here, we combine observed and reconstructed June-July-August (JJA) surface air temperatures to show that 2023 was the warmest [Northern Hemisphere] extra-tropical summer over the past 2000 years exceeding the 95% confidence range of natural climate variability by more than half a degree Celsius. Comparison of the 2023 JJA warming against the coldest reconstructed summer in 536 CE reveals a maximum range of pre-Anthropocene-to-2023 temperatures of 3.93°C.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07512-yRecord-breaking increase in CO2 levels in world’s atmosphere
The largest ever recorded leap in the amount of carbon dioxide laden in the world’s atmosphere has just occurred, according to researchers who monitor the relentless accumulation of the primary gas that is heating the planet. The global average concentration of carbon dioxide in March this year was 4.7 parts per million (or ppm) higher than it it was in March last year, which is a record-breaking increase in CO2 levels over a 12-month period.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/09/carbon-dioxide-atmosphere-recordThe Middle East Is Becoming Literally Uninhabitable
This summer, several picturesque countries in the Middle East became tinderboxes. As extreme temperatures and severe droughts ravaged the region, forests burned, and cities became islands of unbearable heat. [But] this is just the start of a trend. The Middle East is warming at twice the global average and by 2050 will be 4 degrees Celsius warmer as compared with the 1.5 degree mark that scientists have prescribed to save humanity ... According to Germany’s Max Planck Institute, many cities in the Middle East may literally become uninhabitable before the end of the century. And the region, ravaged by war and mired in sectarianism, may be singularly ill-prepared to face the challenges that threaten its collective existence. Jos Lelieveld, an expert on the climate of the Middle East and Mediterranean at the Max Planck Institute, said the Middle East has overtaken the European Union in greenhouse gas emissions even though it is “particularly strongly affected” by climate change. “In several cities in the Middle East, temperatures have been soaring well in excess of 50 degrees Celsius,” Lelieveld said. “If nothing changes, cities may experience temperatures of 60 degrees Celsius in the future, which will be dangerous for those who do not have access to air conditioning.” Air conditioners have become a luxury even for the relatively wealthy in countries such as Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. These countries are encumbered by war, Western sanctions, or a self-serving ruling elite. The thought of what will happen in these cities as climate change worsens living conditions, if the standards of governance remain the same, is a frightening one.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/08/24/the-middle-east-is-becoming-literally-uninhabitable/Trees spreading across the Great Plains are making climate change worse
In most temperate grasslands around the world, gaining a tree canopy won't help cool the planet
We normally think of trees as being good for the environment. But in parts of the Midwest and Great Plains, they're heating up the earth as woodlands take over grasslands ... new research clarifies that deploying trees against global warming backfires in parts of the U.S. and Canada, including much of the Great Plains. Trees darken the ground. So a place that otherwise would reflect more sunlight and send some of its heat straight back into outer space instead soaks up that heat. In some regions, this outweighs the trees’ potential carbon storage. This is the case for many grasslands ... The portion of sunlight that bounces back into space is called albedo. Trees warm the planet in places where they reduce the ground’s reflectivity a lot, and don’t capture enough carbon to offset that problem.
https://www.kcur.org/news/2024-05-06/trees-are-spreading-across-the-great-plains-theyre-actually-making-climate-change-worse
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-46577-1The ‘world’s largest’ vacuum to suck climate pollution out of the air just opened.
Direct air capture, or DAC, is a technology designed to suck in air and strip out the carbon using chemicals. The carbon can then be injected deep beneath the ground, reused or transformed into solid products ... Climeworks started building Mammoth in June 2022. It has a modular design with space for 72 “collector containers” — the vacuum parts of the machine that capture carbon from the air [and] there are currently 12 of these in place ... Mammoth will be able to pull 36,000 tons of carbon from the atmosphere a year at full capacity ... Climeworks did not give an exact cost for each ton of carbon removed, but said it was closer to $1,000 a ton than $100 a ton – the latter of which is widely seen as a key threshold for making the technology affordable and viable ... the aim is to reach $300 to $350 a ton by 2030 before hitting $100 a ton around 2050 ... The new plant is [just] a tiny fraction of what’s needed. All the carbon removal equipment in the world is only capable of removing around 0.01 million metric tons of carbon a year, a far cry from the 70 million tons a year needed by 2030 to meet global climate goals, according to the International Energy Agency.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/08/climate/direct-air-capture-plant-iceland-climate-intl/index.htmlHawaii’s Mauna Loa Observatory just captured ominous signals about the planet’s health
Carbon dioxide levels were 4.7 parts per million higher in March than they were a year earlier, the largest annual leap ever ... "Not only is CO2 still rising in the atmosphere — it's increasing faster and faster," said Arlyn Andrews, a climate scientist at NOAA's Global Monitoring Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado. Once CO2 makes it into the atmosphere, it stays there for hundreds of years, acting as a blanket trapping heat. That blanket has been steadily thickening ever since humans turned materials that were once dense stores of carbon — oil and coal, primarily — into fuel to burn. Each annual maximum has raised new alarm about the curve’s unceasing upward trend — nearing 427 parts per million in the most recent readings, which is more than 50 percent above preindustrial levels and the highest in at least 4.3 million years, according to NOAA. It will take some four decades to stop the annual growth in CO2 concentrations, even if all emissions began declining now, Andrews said [and] for CO2 concentrations to fall back below 400 parts per million, it would take more than two centuries even if emissions dropped close to zero by the end of this century.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/05/10/carbon-dioxide-record-mauna-loa/Bumblebee nests are overheating to fatal levels, study finds
More frequent heatwaves mean bees are unable to thermoregulate their hives
As the climate crisis pushes average temperatures up and generates heatwaves, bumblebees will struggle to keep their homes habitable ... Dave Goulson, a professor of biology at the University of Sussex, who was not involved in the research, said: “We have known for a long time that bumblebees are cool-climate specialists ... there are even some that live in the Arctic. That means an obvious problem with climate change – they are vulnerable to warming.” The paper’s findings, said Goulson, who has spent 30 years studying bumblebees, are “really depressing”. “It is kind of heartbreaking to think that many may disappear.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/04/bumblebees-overheating-threat-global-heating-temperatures-aoe
reporting on a study at https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/frbee.2024.1351616/fullKenya: Floods cause widespread devastation in Nairobi
The UN says more than 40,000 have been forced from their homes Roads have turned into rivers in the Kenyan capital Nairobi, as a top official said flooding had "escalated to extreme levels". Heavy rain has pounded Kenya in recent days, causing widespread devastation. The UN says that at least 32 people have lost their lives and more than 40,000 have been forced from their homes because of the rain and flooding ... "The situation in Nairobi has escalated to extreme levels. The County Government for all its efforts is clearly overwhelmed."
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-68888110‘Fields are completely underwater’: UK farmers navigate record rainfall
Farmers have been dealing with record-breaking rainfall over at least the past year, meaning food produced in Britain has fallen drastically. Livestock and crops have been affected as fields have been submerged since last autumn on account of it being an exceptionally wet 18 months. "The constraints that we are facing this year means we are going to have an appalling harvest. We’ve hardly got any crops in the ground at all ... Generally you plant in the autumn but the difficulty we’ve had this year is that from mid-October to effectively now, there has just been non-stop rain ... We’ve all been caught out this year."
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/22/fields-underwater-uk-farmers-navigate-record-rainfall-food-production-crisis-wet-weatherChina's cities are sinking, putting tens of millions at risk
Major cities across China are sinking, putting a substantial portion of the country's rapidly urbanizing population in harm's way in the coming decades ... Out of 82 major Chinese cities, nearly half are measurably subsiding, according to the new study, which was published in the journal Science and conducted by more than 50 scientists at Chinese research institutes. The areas that are sinking are home to nearly one third of China's urban population. And the authors estimate that about a quarter of China's coastal land will be below sea level in the next hundred years, largely due to subsidence. That means tens of millions of people are already at risk, and that could grow to hundreds of millions if China's cities continue to both grow in population and subside at their current rate.
https://www.npr.org/2024/04/18/1244795971/chinas-cities-are-sinking-putting-tens-of-millions-at-risk
reporting on a study at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adl4366Massive floods threaten tens of millions as intense rains batter southern China
Multiple days of heavy rains have lashed southern China, unleashing deadly floods and threatening to upend the lives of tens of millions of people as rescuers rush to evacuate residents trapped by rising waters. Guangdong province, an economic powerhouse home to 127 million people, has seen widespread flooding that has forced more than 110,000 people to be relocated, state media reported, citing the local government. Since April 16, sustained torrential rains have pounded the Pearl River Delta, China’s manufacturing heartland and one of the country’s most populated regions, with four weather stations in Guangdong registering record rainfall for April. Scientists warn that the climate crisis will amplify extreme weather, making it deadlier and more frequent. Since last week, at least 44 rivers in the Pearl River basin have swelled above the warning line, threatening to burst their banks, according to state broadcaster CCTV. On the Bei River, which flows into the Pearl River, authorities have warned of a “once a century” flood expected to reach 5.8 meters (19 feet) above the warning limit. The tributary had already burst its banks on April 8, marking the earliest arrival of its annual flood season since records began. The “massive flood” at the Bei River is the earliest on record to hit China in the highest category of a four-tier classification system. Further heavy rainfall is expected to hit Guangdong this week.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/22/china/china-guangdong-floods-intl-hnk/index.html'Ping pong-sized' hailstones ravage famous French wine region
Huge hailstones, ranging from the size of a ping pong ball to the size of a lime, rained down on north Burgundy, with Chablis particularly badly affected, according to French weather agency Météo-France. “We’ve never seen anything like this, it’s dramatic,” [said] Julie Fèvre, a winemaker ... Thunderstorms are common this time of year but this week’s storms, bringing intense rainfall and large hailstones, were “particularly virulent,” [said] Météo-France ... Extreme weather, including drought and heat as well as frost and hailstorms, is affecting the wine industry globally. The world’s wine harvest in 2023 was the lowest in 61 years because of “extreme climatic conditions” as well as widespread fungal diseases, an April report from the International Organisation of Vine and Wine revealed. “Everything is partially destroyed,” Paul-Étienne Defaix, another winemaker said.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/severe-weather/ping-pong-sized-hailstones-ravage-famous-french-wine-region/1647365Rapidly rising levels of TFA ‘forever chemical’ alarm experts
Trifluoroacetic acid found in drinking water and rain is thought to damage fertility and child development
Rapidly rising levels of TFA, a class of “forever chemical” thought to damage fertility and child development, are being found in drinking water, blood and rain, causing alarm among experts. TFA, or trifluoroacetic acid, is a type of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substance (PFAS), a group of human-made chemicals used widely in consumer products that do not break down for thousands of years. Many of the substances have been linked to negative effects on human health. Studies from across the world are reporting sharp rises in TFA. “Everywhere you look it’s increasing. There’s no study where the concentration of TFA hasn’t increased,” said David Behringer, an environmental consultant who has studied TFA in rain for the German government. “If you’re drinking water, you’re drinking a lot of TFA, wherever you are in the world ... China had a 17-fold increase of TFA in surface waters in a decade, the US had a sixfold increase in 23 years.” TFA in rainwater in Germany has been found to have increased fivefold in two decades ... “We all have been experiencing rising TFA concentrations in our blood since the Montreal protocol [banned CFCs]. Future generations will have increasing concentrations in their blood until some kind of global action is taken. Accumulation [in the environment] is essentially irreversible and I’m afraid the impact on humans and the environment won’t be recognised by scientists until it is too late.” Last month, the German chemical regulator informed the European Chemicals Agency that it wanted TFA classified as reprotoxic, meaning it can harm human reproductive function, fertility and foetal development [but] TFA is incredibly difficult to remove from water. “There’s no way to get TFA out,” said Behringer.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/may/01/rapidly-rising-levels-of-tfa-forever-chemical-alarm-expertsThe drowning south: Where seas are rising at alarming speed
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/interactive/2024/southern-us-sea-level-rise-risk-citiesClimate change: Indian Ocean racing towards unprecedented heatwave crisis
The rapid warming is not limited to the surface - the heat content of the Indian Ocean down to 2,000 meters is currently increasing at a rate of 4.5 zettajoules per decade. A comprehensive new study led by Roxy Mathew Koll of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology paints a dire picture of the accelerating climate changes unfolding in the Indian Ocean. The research, published by Elsevier, forecasts substantial ocean warming, rising sea levels, and an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. "The future increase in heat content is comparable to adding the energy equivalent of one Hiroshima atomic bomb detonation every second, all day, every day, for a decade," warned Koll. This alarming trend is driving the Indian Ocean towards a near-permanent state of marine heatwaves, with the number of heatwave days per year expected to surge from the current 20 to a staggering 220-250 by 2050.
https://www.indiatoday.in/environment/story/climate-change-indian-ocean-racing-towards-unprecedented-heatwave-crisis-2534521-2024-05-02
reporting on a study at https://www.rocksea.org/bin/research/Roxy_Future_Indian_Ocean_Elsevier_2024.pdfAntarctic Slope Undercurrent and onshore heat transport driven by ice shelf melting
Elevated ice shelf melt rates in West Antarctica have been attributed to transport of warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) onto the continental shelf [from] an eastward, subsurface slope current (referred to as the Antarctic Slope Undercurrent) ... the bathymetric steering of the undercurrent toward the ice shelf is driven by upwelling of meltwater within the ice shelf cavity. Increased basal melt therefore strengthens the undercurrent and enhances onshore CDW transport, which indicates a positive feedback that may accelerate future melt of ice shelves, potentially further destabilizing the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adl0601Record-breaking heat and humidity predicted for tropics this summer
https://phys.org/news/2024-04-humidity-tropics-summer.html
reporting on a study at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GL106990Plant apocalypse: how new diseases are destroying EU trees and crops
Since scientists first discovered Xylella fastidiosa in 2013 in Puglia, Italy, it has killed a third of the region’s 60 million olive trees – which once produced almost half of Italy’s olive oil – many of which were centuries old ... “The greatest part of the territory was completely destroyed,” says Donato Boscia, a plant virologist and head researcher on Xylella at the Institute for Sustainable Plant Protection in Bari. A decade later, far from nearing resolution, the threat to European plants from Xylella and other diseases is only growing ... Across the EU, data shows, outbreaks of newly introduced plant disease have continued unabated at an average rate of 70 a year between 2015 and 2020, despite regulations introduced to stop their spread in 2016. While a number of member states have taken steps to prevent and curb the outbreaks, scientists, plant epidemiologists and agronomists say it is still insufficient ... with so many ports of entry, scientists and regulators can’t keep up with the volumes coming in. Trioza erytreae, a sap-sucking pest, has been endangering Portuguese citrus; a bacterium infecting carrots and celery has been raising concerns around the continent; and Hymenoscyphus fraxineus has been killing ash trees in Poland. Many scientists fear the spread will be helped by the climate crisis, which is making Europe a warmer, more hospitable place for foreign plant pests to thrive.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/24/plant-apocalypse-how-deadly-imported-diseases-are-destroying-eu-trees-and-crops-aoeEco-Collapse Hasn’t Happened Yet, But You Can See It Coming
[A] warning of ecological calamity that made headlines more than 50 years ago is looking all too frighteningly prescient right now. In 1972, a group of MIT scientists published a book, The Limits to Growth, based on computer simulations of the world economy from 1900 to 2100. It plotted out trajectories for the Earth’s and humanity’s vital signs, based on several scenarios. In every scenario, though, their simulated future world economies eventually ran into limits — resource depletion, pollution, crop failures — that triggered declines in industrial output, food production, and population ... we’re now living out those very simulations. The Limits to Growth analysis forecast that, with business-as-usual, production would grow for five decades before hitting its peak sometime in the last half of the 2020s (here we come!). Then decline would set in. And sure enough, we now have scientists across a range of disciplines issuing warnings that we’re perilously close to exactly that turnaround point. This year, a simulation using an updated version of The Limits to Growth model showed industrial production peaking just about now, while food production, too, could hit a peak soon. Like the 1972 original, this updated analysis foresees distinct declines on the other side of those peaks ... Their concluding remarks are even more chilling: “As a society, we have to admit that, despite 50 years of knowledge about the dynamics of the collapse of our life support systems, we have failed to initiate a systematic change to prevent this collapse. It is becoming increasingly clear that, despite technological advances, the change needed to put us on a different trajectory will also require a change in belief systems, mindsets, and the way we organize our society” ... indefinite expansion of the U.S. and global economy into the distant future is doomed to fail, but not before it’s crippled our ecological and social systems. In its 2024 Global Resources Outlook, the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) reported that humanity’s annual consumption of physical resources had grown more than threefold in the half-century since The Limits to Growth was published ... Old-fashioned computer simulations and present-day realities are, it seems, speaking to us in unison, warning that civilization itself is in danger of collapse. Growth — whether expressed as more dollars accumulated, more tons of material stuff produced, more carbon burned, or more wastes emitted — is coming to an end. The only question is: Will it happen as a collapse of society, or could the reversal of material growth be undertaken rationally in ways that would avoid a descent into a Mad Max-style conflict of all against all?
https://tomdispatch.com/eco-collapse-hasnt-happened-yet-but-you-can-see-it-coming/
see also 'Limits to Growth' entries elsewhere on this pageDrought causes power cuts in Ecuador
A severe drought has led to power cuts in Ecuador, which relies on hydroelectrical sources for much of its power. Energy companies published a schedule of power cuts which has seen the capital and other major cities go without electricity for hours on end. The drought has already led to water rationing in neighboring Colombia ... The energy ministry said Ecuador's power system had been affected by "several unprecedented situations", including a drought, increased temperatures and minimum water levels ... energy minister, Roberto Luque, warned there were no "short-term solutions" to solve the country's energy crisis.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-68835127There’s an Explosion of Plastic Waste. Big Companies Say ‘We’ve Got This.’
But the technology is struggling to deliver
The traditional approach to recycling is to simply grind up and melt plastic waste. The new, advanced-recycling operators say they can break down the plastic much further, into more basic molecular building blocks, and transform it into new plastic ... PureCycle’s woes are emblematic of broad trouble faced by a new generation of recycling plants that have struggled to keep up with the growing tide of global plastic production, which scientists say could almost quadruple by midcentury. A chemical-recycling facility in Tigard, Ore., a joint venture between Agilyx and Americas Styrenics, is in the process of shutting down after millions of dollars in losses. A plant in Ashley, Ind., that had aimed to recycle 100,000 tons of plastic a year by 2021 had processed only 2,000 tons in total as of late 2023 ... the advanced recycling plants are struggling to make a dent in the roughly 36 million tons of plastic Americans discard each year, which is more than any other country. Even if the 10 remaining chemical-recycling plants in America were to operate at full capacity, they would together process some 456,000 tons of plastic waste [which is only] enough to raise the plastic recycling rate — which has languished below 10 percent for decades — by a single percentage point ... “The industry is trying to say they have a solution,” said Terrence J. Collins, a professor of chemistry and sustainability science at Carnegie Mellon University. “It’s a non-solution.” PureCycle is now being sued by other investors who accuse the company of making false statements and misleading investors about its setbacks.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/05/climate/plastic-recycling.htmlNo sign of greenhouse gases increases slowing in 2023
Levels of the three most important human-caused greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide (CO2), methane and nitrous oxide – continued their steady climb during 2023, according to NOAA scientists ... The global surface concentration of CO2, averaged across all 12 months of 2023, was 419.3 parts per million (ppm), an increase of 2.8 ppm during the year. This was the 12th consecutive year CO2 increased by more than 2 ppm ... atmospheric methane increased rapidly during the 1980s, nearly stabilized in the late-1990s and early 2000s, then resumed a rapid rise in 2007 ... “In addition to the record high methane growth in 2020-2022, we also observed sharp changes in the isotope composition of the methane that indicates an even more dominant role of microbial emission increase” [raising] the possibility that climate change is causing wetlands to give off increasing methane emissions in a feedback loop.
https://research.noaa.gov/2024/04/05/no-sign-of-greenhouse-gases-increases-slowing-in-2023/Searing heat is back across Southeast Asia and it’s not going away anytime soon
Home to more than 675 million people across 11 countries, the region has seen temperatures reach unprecedented levels – with little respite from merciless heat and humidity ... “We thought temperatures last year were unbearable but this year has beaten that – temperatures in Bangkok won’t drop below 30 degrees Celsius, even at night ... The trend is inescapable. The region has to prepare for terrible heat for the rest of April and most of May” ... In nearby Vietnam, the heat wave brought intense droughts to the south – driving temperatures up to nearly 104 degrees Fahrenheit and wreaking havoc on the country’s vital agriculture industry [where] rice fields and rivers have dried up, according to Vietnamese media reports, and farmers have been struggling without rainwater for their crops ... the world continues to blast through climate records, with deadly heat waves becoming the norm ... one of the most worrying characteristics of the heat wave now sweeping across the region is its prolonged duration - with no end in sight.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/10/asia/southeast-asia-extreme-heat-climate-intl-hnk/index.htmlThe Widest-Ever Global Coral Crisis Will Hit Within Weeks, Scientists Say
The world’s coral reefs are in the throes of [yet another] global bleaching event caused by extraordinary ocean temperatures, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and international partners announced ... Coral reefs are vital ecosystems: limestone cradles of marine life that nurture an estimated quarter of ocean species at some point during their life cycles, support fish that provide protein for millions of people and protect coasts from storms. [But] for the last year, ocean temperatures have been off the charts ... The news is the latest example of climate scientists’ alarming predictions coming to pass as the planet heats. Despite decades of warnings from scientists and pledges from leaders, nations are burning more fossil fuels than ever and greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise ... more than 54 percent of the world’s coral area has experienced bleaching-level heat stress in the past year, and that number is increasing by about 1 percent per week, Dr. Manzello said. He added that within a week or two, “this event is likely to be the most spatially extensive global bleaching event on record” ... Each of the three previous global bleaching events has been worse than the last ... “The feeling is like, ‘My God, this is happening,’” said Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, a professor of marine studies at the University of Queensland who published early predictions about how global warming would be catastrophic for coral reefs. “Now we’re at the point where we’re in the disaster movie.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/15/climate/coral-reefs-bleaching.html
NOAA Coral Reef Watch https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/5km/index_5km_dhw.phpRecord hot March caps warmest 12 months on record — report
Europe's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said on Tuesday that March 2024 was the warmest on record, making it the tenth consecutive month to break heat records ... warmer than the previous March, and 1.68C hotter than an average March between the years 1850-1900, the reference period for the pre-industrial era. Above-average temperatures were recorded in parts of Africa, South America, Greenland and Antarctica. Sea surface temperatures also hit a "shocking new high," the report said ... "It's the long-term trend with exceptional records that has us very concerned," [said] Samantha Burgess, deputy director of C3S. "Seeing records like this — month in, month out — really shows us that our climate is changing rapidly," she added ... scientists say that greenhouse gas emissions are the main cause of the rising temperatures.
https://www.dw.com/en/record-hot-march-caps-warmest-12-months-on-record-report/a-68772772
reporting on a study at https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-march-2024-tenth-month-row-be-hottest-recordNorthern Permafrost Region Emits More Greenhouse Gases Than It Captures
Permafrost underlies about 14 million square kilometers of land in and around the Arctic. The top 3 meters contain an estimated 1 trillion metric tons of carbon and 55 billion metric tons of nitrogen. Historically, the northern permafrost region has been a sink for carbon, as frozen soils inhibit microbial decomposition. But rising temperatures contribute to thawing permafrost and enhance the biogeochemical activities that exacerbate climate change by releasing greenhouse gases ... Wetlands were some of the largest methane emitters, and lakes contributed substantially as well. Dry tundra was the biggest driver of N2O release, and permafrost bogs were a close second.
https://eos.org/research-spotlights/northern-permafrost-region-emits-more-greenhouse-gases-than-it-captures
reporting on a study at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GB007953Ocean currents threaten to collapse Antarctic ice shelves, study finds
A new study published in Nature Communications has revealed that the interplay between meandering ocean currents and the ocean floor induces upwelling velocity, transporting warm water to shallower depths. This mechanism contributes substantially to the melting of ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea of West Antarctica. These ice shelves are destabilizing rapidly and contributing to sea level rise ... In a departure from prior assumptions linking ice shelf melting primarily to winds over the Southern Ocean, this study underscores the significant role played by the interactions between meandering ocean currents and the ocean floor in driving the melting process. The Pine Island and Thwaites ice shelves are among the fastest-changing in Antarctica and are of particular interest due to their vulnerability to warming ocean waters ... their rapid melting and potential collapse pose a significant threat to coastal communities worldwide because of the resulting rise in global sea levels.
https://phys.org/news/2024-04-ocean-currents-threaten-collapse-antarctic.html
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-47084-zAntarctica's sea ice hit another low this year—understanding how ocean warming is driving the loss is key
Even just a decade ago, sea ice reliably rebuilt itself each winter. But something has changed in how the Southern Ocean works and the area covered by sea ice has decreased dramatically ... The annual freeze-thaw cycle of Antarctic sea ice is one of the defining properties of our planet. It affects the reflectivity of a vast area of the globe, oxygenates the deep ocean, provides habitat across the Southern Ocean food web and plays a role in the resilience of ice shelves ... Continental shelf seas around Antarctica are special because of the presence of sea ice—but this varies in space and time. The US National Snow and Ice Data Center has developed a visualization tool to compare sea-ice conditions during different times. It shows that by the end of summer, the Ross Sea region holds only a few patches of sea ice. And this year, the patches were even fewer than in the past.
https://phys.org/news/2024-04-antarctica-sea-ice-year-ocean.html
see also https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/37/7/JCLI-D-23-0479.1.xml
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-021-00768-3Climate crisis increasing frequency of deadly ocean upwells, study finds
A climate-disrupted ocean is pushing sharks, rays and other species to flee ever-hotter water in the tropics, only for them to be killed by increasingly intense upwells of cold water from the depths, a study has found. The paper, published in Nature Climate Change on Monday, found that shifts in ocean currents and pressure systems driven by climate breakdown were increasing the frequency and intensity of upwellings.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/15/climate-crisis-deadly-ocean-upswells-cold-water-study
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-01966-8The Flooding Will Come “No Matter What”
The complex, contradictory and heartbreaking process of American climate migration is underway
People have always moved as their environment has changed. But today, the climate is warming faster, and the population is larger, than at any point in history. As the U.S. gets hotter, its coastal waters rise higher, its wildfires burn larger and its droughts last longer, the notion that humankind can triumph over nature is fading, and with it, slowly, goes the belief that self-determination and personal preference can be the driving factors in choosing where to live. Scientific modeling of these pressures suggest a sweeping change is coming in the shape and location of communities across America, a change that promises to transform the country’s politics, culture and economy. It has already begun. More Americans are displaced by catastrophic climate-change-driven storms and floods and fires every year ... In a 2021 study published in the journal Climatic Change, researchers found that 57% of the Americans they surveyed believed that changes in their climate would push them to consider a move sometime in the next decade. Also in 2021, the national real estate firm Redfin conducted a similar nationwide survey, finding that nearly half of Americans who planned to move that year said that climate risks were already driving their decisions [and] when Redfin broadened its survey to include more than a thousand people who had not yet decided to move, a whopping 75% of them said that they would think twice before buying a home in a place facing rising heat or other climate risks ... “You see your community is going, and they tell you that this is going to happen no matter what,” Colette said. “So even if we are successful in what we do next, we will lose those places. I couldn’t believe what I saw, that this place I hold so dear and that I have such a long memory of, all of those stories are going to go. Who I am and what I am describing is going to be lost. It’s surreal.”
https://www.propublica.org/article/climate-migration-louisiana-slidell-floodingClimate crisis brings boomtime for British wine [but threaten to devastate typical wine regions]
The climate crisis led to the UK experiencing its second-hottest year on record last year, with rising temperatures creating increasingly ideal conditions for growing grapes in Britain. But extreme heat also threatens to devastate typical wine regions, such as areas of Spain, Italy and southern California, where harvests are predicted to plummet. “I don’t want to put a positive spin on climate change, because it’s not a positive thing,” says [UK winemaker] Pike. “For every degree it goes up here the temperature and the weather changes elsewhere. People who are growing in Burgundy are facing things they have never faced before because of the unpredictability of the weather.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/apr/12/its-a-sun-trap-climate-crisis-brings-boomtime-for-british-wineMorocco drought: Satellite images show vital Al Massira reservoir is shrinking
Morocco's second-largest reservoir that serves some of its major cities and has been central to farm irrigation is drying up; Al Massira Dam, which sits around halfway between Casablanca and Marrakesh, contains just 3% of the average amount of water that was there nine years ago ... the impact of the drought stretches across the country [and] has been exacerbated by evaporation which increases as the heat rises. Last year, Morocco recorded its highest-ever temperature of 50.4C on 11 August.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-68665826‘Alarming’ Ocean Temperatures Suggest This Hurricane Season Will Be a Daunting One
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/04/climate/ocean-temperature-hurricane-forecast.html
see also https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/04/it-could-well-be-a-blockbuster-hurricane-season-and-thats-not-a-good-thing/
reporting on a study at https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.htmlWorld’s biggest economies pumping billions into [extracting] fossil fuels in poor nations
The G20 group of developed and developing economies, and the multilateral development banks they fund, put $142bn (£112bn) into fossil fuel developments overseas from 2020 to 2022. Canada, Japan and South Korea were the biggest sources of such finance in the three years studied, and gas received more funding than either coal or oil. The G7 group of biggest economies, to which Japan and Canada belong, pledged in 2022 to halt overseas funding of fossil fuels. US, Germany and Italy also provided billions in funding a year to overseas fossil fuel projects before the end of 2022-23, according to the report.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/09/worlds-biggest-economies-pumping-billions-into-fossil-fuels-in-poor-nations
reporting on a study at https://priceofoil.org/2024/04/09/public-enemies-assessing-mdb-and-g20-international-finance-institutions-energy-finance/Four decades of glacial data reveals substantial losses and water worries
An analysis of glacial data spanning four decades ... reveals significant losses in glacial mass and points out just how important this could be for the people and ecosystems that rely on the melt waters from these glaciers. It also highlights the flood risks associated with sudden catastrophic changes in the glaciers as they melt ... [glaciers] play a major role in sustaining river flow and supporting human activities such as agriculture and hydroelectric power generation, as well maintaining the natural, local ecosystems, wildlife, and habitats. The impact of glacial loss will be gradual, but with accelerating loss due to climate change there is the risk of melted glacial lakes suddenly release huge volumes of water downstream, which could devastate human settlements and the ecosystems in its path.
https://phys.org/news/2024-04-decades-glacial-reveals-substantial-losses.html
reporting on a study at https://www.inderscience.com/info/inarticle.php?artid=137781‘Simply mind-boggling’: world record temperature jump in Antarctic raises fears of catastrophe
[Scientists] recorded the largest jump in temperature ever measured [when the Antarctic] experienced a rise of 38.5C above its seasonal average: a world record. This startling leap – in the coldest place on the planet – left polar researchers struggling for words to describe it. “It is simply mind-boggling,” said Prof Michael Meredith, science leader at the British Antarctic Survey ... Glaciers bordering the west Antarctic ice-sheet are losing mass to the ocean at an increasing rate, while levels of sea ice, which float on the oceans around the continent, have plunged dramatically ... the Antarctic, once thought to be too cold to experience the early impacts of global warming, is now succumbing dramatically and rapidly to the swelling levels of greenhouse gases that humans continue to pump into the atmosphere. These dangers were highlighted by a team of scientists, led by Will Hobbs of the University of Tasmania, in a paper that was published last week in the Journal of Climate.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/06/simply-mind-boggling-world-record-temperature-jump-in-antarctic-raises-fears-of-catastrophePFAS ‘Forever Chemicals’ Are Pervasive in Water Worldwide, Study Finds
Over the last fifty years such chemicals have cut worldwide fertility in half, among other health effects
A new study of more than 45,000 water samples around the world found that about 31 percent of groundwater samples tested that weren’t near any obvious source of contamination had PFAS levels considered harmful to human health by the Environmental Protection Agency [which] “sets off alarm bells,” said Denis O’Carroll, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of New South Wales and one of the authors of the study, which was published on Monday in Nature Geoscience. “Not just for PFAS, but also for all the other chemicals that we put out into the environment. We don’t necessarily know their long-term impacts to us or the ecosystem.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/08/climate/pfas-forever-chemicals-water.html
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-024-01402-8Our Oldest Secret: We Have Been Super-Predators for 2 Million Years
Analysis can also help explain why it’s so hard for us to preserve our environment
New research has revealed one of the deepest and oldest secrets of who we are as a species. Humans are natural born killers: super-predators designed by evolution to subsist mainly on the meat and fat of large animals, and genetically hardwired to hunt our prey into extinction, says a new study on the eating habits of prehistoric hominins going back 2 million years. This meta-analysis collated information from some 400 previous studies, conducted over decades by unconnected scientists, and providing biological, genetic, archaeological and molecular data on the diet of our Stone Age ancestors. The overwhelming evidence gleaned from this research belies the common belief that humans are adaptable omnivores who won at the evolutionary game because of their flexibility and smarts. Instead, it supports a new paradigm of our evolution ... that we are specialized hypercarnivores who diversified our diet only at the tail-end of our evolutionary story, and only because we were forced to do so after killing off our main food source [which] can also help explain a number of problems that humans face today: from why so many of us have trouble digesting certain foods to why it’s so hard for us to preserve our environment ... The team investigated “The evolution of the human trophic level during the Pleistocene,” which is a technical way of saying that it tried to glean the position that Stone Age hominins occupied in the food chain – essentially, a prehistoric who-ate-who. Our very distant ancestors, such as the australopithecines and Homo habilis, had already started to move away from the typical plant-based diet of primates and incorporate more meat in their eating habits, the researchers say. But some two million years ago a new hominin emerged in Africa that would take the world by storm, and is believed to have eventually evolved into modern Homo sapiens. [Homo erectus] was the first member of our species to climb to the top of the food chain and become what zoologists call a hypercarnivore – a mammal that obtains more than 70 percent of its food from other animals. Since erectus, humans have remained at the top of the food chain ... “Most researchers hold the view that [prehistoric] humans could eat whatever they wanted: plants, animals, whatever was available.” From this assumption comes the idea is that Homo sapiens evolved and spread across the world because it was extremely flexible. But that paradigm is flawed, because it is largely based on studies of the behavior of modern-day hunter-gatherers. These groups have access to technologies, such as metals and controlled fire, that our ancestors didn’t have. Additionally, they have been adapting for tens of thousands of years to the depletion of megafauna, which forced humans to learn to hunt smaller prey and forage or domesticate plants. If we look at the evidence encoded in our own biology, a very different picture emerges. For example, the human colon is 77 percent smaller than that of the chimpanzee, while our small intestine is 64 percent longer. The colon is where energy is extracted from plant fiber, while the small intestine is where sugars, proteins and fat are absorbed. This means that after the human lineage diverged from the chimp line, around six million years ago, we progressively became more adapted at extracting energy from meat, and lost most of our ability to do so from plants. The same progression toward a carnivorous diet can be seen in the evolution of our teeth. Australopithecines, who lived from four to two million years ago, had big jaws and large flat molars, necessary features to grind large amounts of plant material. With Homo erectus, mandibles and teeth shrink to a size comparable to that of modern humans [implying] that by then we had migrated to softer food, like meat. Multiple studies of isotopes in the bones of hominins have also shown that humans subsisted largely on an animal-based diet until the end of the Paleolithic, less than 20,000 years ago ... It also perhaps is not a coincidence that Homo erectus was not just the first hypercarnivore in our lineage, but was also the first hominin to leave Africa and populate Eurasia. Several researchers have suggested that erectus may have been following the migration of megafauna ... finally, this image of humans as all-consuming predators reminds us of the destructive effects of our behavior can have on our ecosystem and the massive effort required to curb what seem to be our most primal instincts. “Humans are not a good caretaker of the environment, we are built to just go for the next animal and eat it.”
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-our-oldest-secret-we-have-been-super-predators-for-2-million-years-1.9680599
also available at https://archive.is/8DgNV
see also https://phys.org/news/2021-04-humans-apex-predators-million-years.html
reporting on a study at https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ajpa.24247Record Heat in Europe, Asia Closes Another Extremely Warm Month For Planet
Heat was most widespread in Europe, where many countries set national high temperature records for March. But it was also unusually warm in Asia, parts of Central America and West Africa. Human-caused climate change from the burning of coal, oil and natural gas is fueling this warmth ... Eight countries set national records for March warmth. Scores of high temperature records also were set in Greece, Turkey, Ukraine and Russia ... Japan bathed in midsummer temperatures to end March. Record heat also closed the month in parts of West Africa, Central America and several tropical locations around the world. A study published Friday in Science Advances found that heat waves are lasting longer and covering greater distances. NOAA says there is a 45.1 percent chance that 2024 will be the warmest year on record, surpassing 2023, and a 99.9 percent chance that it will rank among the top five warmest years.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/04/01/record-heat-europe-asia-climate/Potential for historically unprecedented Australian droughts from natural variability and climate change
Using simulations of Australian precipitation over the full past millennium (850–2000), we characterise the nature of multi-year meteorological droughts across Australia and include a particular focus on the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB), the largest agricultural region in Australia ... droughts to last longer in southwestern and eastern Australia (including the MDB) in the 20th century, compared with the pre-industrial period, suggests an emerging anthropogenic influence, consistent with projected rainfall changes in these regions ... simulations of droughts over the last millennium suggest that future droughts across Australia could be much longer than what was experienced in the 20th century, even without any human influence. With the addition of anthropogenic climate change, which favours drought conditions across much of southern Australia due to reduced cool-season rainfall, it is likely that future droughts in Australia will exceed recent historical experience.
https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/28/1383/2024/Zimbabwean president declares state of disaster due to drought
President Emmerson Mnangagwa has said the country needs $2bn in aid to help millions of people who are going hungry. The severe dry spell is wreaking havoc across southern Africa. Due to poor rains, more than 2.7 million [Zimbabweans] will not have enough food to put on the table this year, he warned. This season’s grain harvest was expected to bring in just over half of the cereals needed to feed the nation, he said. In southern Africa, Zimbabwe is the third country to declare drought a national disaster after Malawi and Zambia ... Rainfall in January and February was the lowest in 40 years, according to the UN.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/03/zimbabwean-president-declares-state-of-disaster-due-to-droughtCopernicus online portal offers terrifying view of climate emergency
Looking at the mass of information, there is only one conclusion: we are running out of time
As well as all the past data, it predicts where the climate is going [and] can call up the region where you live, so it is specific to what is happening to you and your family – and all the more disturbing for that. A separate part called Climate Pulse intended particularly for journalists is easier to operate. The refreshing bit is that the maps, charts and timelines from 1850 to the present day on the main atlas are entirely factual measurements, so there can be no argument on the trends. It then follows those trends into the likely scenarios for the next few years. Examining current temperature increases, it seemed to this observer that scientists have been underestimating for some time how quickly the situation is deteriorating.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2024/mar/29/copernicus-online-portal-offers-terrifying-view-climate-emergency
Full Atlas https://atlas.climate.copernicus.eu/atlas
Climate Pulse https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu/NOAA gets dire warning about solar geoengineering
A U.S. company or citizen with plans to inject aerosols into the atmosphere is [only] required to fill out a one-page form with the Commerce Department 10 days before they do so, thanks to a law from the 1970s that requires reporting of efforts to modify the weather. That’s not enough, say academics and researchers ... “There’s no governance on the international level, national governance, there’s no state governance, there’s nothing” ... Scientists know that aerosol particles can cool the Earth’s surface because they temporarily reflect sunlight. But widespread questions remain about the scientific and geopolitical implications of injecting aerosols into the upper atmosphere to modify the climate. Geoengineering also doesn’t address other harms associated with producing and burning fossil fuels, such as local pollution and ocean acidification. And if a country or company were to implement a major geoengineering scheme, it would have to continue until carbon concentrations in the atmosphere fell to a safe level or risk triggering a catastrophic spike in global warming — a risk known as termination shock ... Harvard University announced last week that it ended a solar radiation modification research project after years of setbacks and opposition from critics. But the idea still has plenty of interest — and experts say it’s gaining in traction as the world appears on pace to exceed its climate targets.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/29/noaa-warning-solar-geoengineering-climate-00148573/California dominates U.S. emissions of the pesticide and potent greenhouse gas sulfuryl fluoride
Sulfuryl fluoride (SO2F2) is a synthetic pesticide [whose] rising emissions are a concern since SO2F2 has a relatively long atmospheric lifetime and a high global warming potential ... we provide an atmospheric measurement-based estimate of U.S. SO2F2 emissions [and] find that California has the largest SO2F2 emissions among all U.S. states, with the highest emissions from southern coastal California (Los Angeles, Orange, and San Diego counties) ... emissions of SO2F2 from California are equal to 5.5–12% of global SO2F2 emissions.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01294-xIndia hydropower output records steepest fall in nearly four decades
Erratic rainfall forced further dependence on coal-fired power amid higher demand
The 16.3% drop in generation from the country's biggest clean energy source coincided with the share of renewables in power generation sliding for the first time since Prime Minister Narendra Modi made commitments to boost solar and wind capacity at the United Nations climate talks at Paris in 2015 ... India is the world's third-largest greenhouse gas emitter, and the government often points to lower per-capita emissions compared to developed nations to defend rising coal use. A five-year low in reservoir levels means hydro output will likely remain low during the hottest months of April-June.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/power/india-hydropower-output-records-steepest-fall-in-nearly-four-decades/articleshow/108936440.cmsInsurance price hikes alone aren’t enough to offset rising natural catastrophe losses, global reinsurer says
Finance professionals lamenting the ever-increasing costs of insuring their commercial property portfolios likely won’t be surprised by the latest research from global reinsurer Swiss Re, which reported global insured losses from last year’s natural catastrophes (Nat Cat) totaled $108 billion, exceeding the $100 billion mark for the fourth year in a row. Combating these rising losses will require premium increases, risk management, and broader societal efforts, according to Swiss Re experts. “As weather hazards intensify due to climate change, risk assessment and insurance premiums need to keep up with the fast-evolving risk landscape,” Moses Ojeisekhoba, Swiss Re’s CEO of global clients and solutions, said in a statement. “Looking ahead, we must focus on reducing the loss potential ... not just to mitigate climate risks, but to adapt to a world of more intense weather.”
https://www.cfobrew.com/stories/2024/03/27/insurance-price-hikes-alone-aren-t-enough-to-offset-rising-natural-catastrophe-losses-global-reinsurer-says/
reporting on a study at https://www.swissre.com/institute/research/sigma-research/sigma-2024-01.htmlThe home insurance market is crumbling
As climate change increases the frequency and severity of extreme weather, insurers are raising their premiums, or pulling out altogether
There were a record 28 weather and climate disasters with losses totaling over $1 billion last year in America, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. By comparison, between 1980 and 2023, the typical annual average for these events was 8.5 ... The main drivers are the higher costs insurers face, including from more severe storms; higher replacement costs; and re-insurance, the type of insurance used by insurers to limit their risks. These are passed on to consumers. So even if a homeowner doesn’t live in a high-risk area, that owner is likely paying a higher premium to cover people in the riskiest places [and] in some places most exposed to climate change, insurers have stopped issuing policies ... Homeowners who have a mortgage are not able to go without homeowners insurance as their mortgage servicer will require an escrow account for insurance. [But] 6 million homeowners chose to forgo homeowners insurance, according to a report from the Consumer Federation of America. That’s about 7.4% of all homeowners in the country, and amounts to about $1.6 trillion of unprotected value. CFA warned that the problem of uninsured homes is likely to get worse in coming years.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/29/economy/home-insurance-prices-climate-change/index.htmlNew satellite images show Northern California’s kelp forest almost gone
The kelp forest on the Sonoma and Mendocino coast has declined by an average of 95% since 2013. The research shows the unprecedented destruction was related to unusual ocean warming and that the kelp forest likely won’t recover any time soon ... The two warm water events that helped cause the kelp forest’s decline include an El Niño and what was known as warm water “blob” that together lasted from 2014 to 2016. Around the same time, a wasting disease struck the sunflower sea star population, leaving the purple urchin without a predator. Those urchins quickly took over, eating the remaining kelp ... water temperatures in the North Coast have returned to normal, McPherson said, and yet the bull kelp hasn’t recovered. It normally returns each spring. Bull kelp growth depends on cold upwellings in spring that bring nutrients to the surface, and those are reduced when water temperatures rise.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/local/environment/article/New-satellite-images-show-Northern-California-s-16001922.php
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s42003-021-01827-6Antarctic Sea Ice Near Historic Lows; Arctic Ice Continues Decline; Antarctic Sea Ice Near Historic Lows; Arctic Ice Continues Decline
Sea ice at both the top and bottom of the planet continued its decline in 2024. In the waters around Antarctica, ice coverage shrank to near-historic lows for the third year in a row. The recurring loss hints at a long-term shift in conditions in the Southern Ocean, likely resulting from global climate change, according to scientists at NASA and the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Meanwhile, the 46-year trend of shrinking and thinning ice in the Arctic Ocean shows no sign of reversing. “In 2016, we saw what some people are calling a regime shift,” said sea ice scientist Walt Meier of the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado, Boulder. “The Antarctic sea ice coverage dropped and has largely remained lower than normal. Over the past seven years, we’ve had three record lows.” Meanwhile, at the other end of the planet, the maximum winter ice coverage in the Arctic Ocean is consistent with an ongoing 46-year decline. “It’s only a matter of time. After six, seven, eight years, it’s starting to look like maybe it’s happening.”
https://www.nasa.gov/earth/antarctic-sea-ice-near-historic-lows-arctic-ice-continues-decline/Europe’s Warmer Weather to Continue in April After Winter Highs
The concluding winter has been exceptionally mild across Europe, reducing demand for heating and pushing power and natural gas prices down. Global temperatures continue setting new highs, with February being the ninth straight month to register as the warmest on record, according to Europe’s Earth observation agency Copernicus ... water content of mountain snowpack was down 40% as of March 5 from a year earlier in southern Alberta's St. Mary River basin. The nearby Waterton basin was down 27%, according to provincial and federal government data. Some 70% of Canada is abnormally dry or in drought, according to the government
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-28/europe-s-warmer-weather-to-continue-in-april-after-winter-highsHeat Waves Are Moving Slower and Staying Longer, Study Finds
As climate change warms the planet, heat waves are increasingly moving sluggishly and lasting longer, according to a study published on Friday. Each decade between 1979 and 2020, the rate at which heat waves travel, pushed along by air circulation, slowed by about 5 miles per day, the study found. Heat waves also now last about four days longer on average ... The longer heat waves stick around in one place, the longer people are exposed to life-threatening temperatures. As workers slow down during extreme heat, so does economic productivity. Heat waves also dry out soil and vegetation, harming crops and raising the risk of wildfires. These changes to heat wave behavior have been more noticeable since the late 1990s, Dr. Zhang said. The researchers also found that heat waves are becoming more frequent, to an average of 98 per year between 2016 and 2020, from 75 per year between 1979 and 1983.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/29/climate/heat-waves-longer-slower.html
reporting on a study at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adl1598The world is warming faster than scientists expected
Jim Skea, the chair of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, said last year’s spike in temperatures was “quicker than we all anticipated” ... Writing in the journal Nature, [Gavin Schmidt, director of Nasa’s Goddard Institute] warned that the data could imply that a warming planet was already “fundamentally altering how the climate system operates” ... But a full explanation remains elusive, which underlines a compelling echo of history. Schmidt’s position at Nasa was once held by another scientist, James Hansen, whose 1988 testimony to the US Congress alerted the world that global warming had begun. The world did not entirely ignore Hansen’s warnings in the 36 years that followed, but nor did it take them anywhere near seriously enough. Oil company bosses may prefer to preach a message of business as usual. But neither they nor anyone else can afford once again to downplay what science is showing us about a climate threat that is now moving into uncharted territory.
https://www.ft.com/content/6f858196-0a9c-4f0f-9720-a0a81849a998One Of The World’s Most Important Ocean Currents Really Is Slowing Down
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has slowed substantially since the mid-90s, a new study reveals ... AMOC is primarily the result of salty water left behind when sea ice forms sinking to the depths, leaving space for tropical waters to flow in. Many climate models suggest that as melting ice from Greenland floods the North Atlantic with cold but very fresh water, it will sit above more salty water instead of sinking. Without an impulse to the depths, water will stop moving south in the deep ocean ... Since [1994] AMOC has slowed. "If AMOC slows down, the heat exchange will be reduced, which in turn will affect the climate, causing hot areas to get hotter and cold areas to get colder," said Mishonov in a statement. Most climatic changes have at least some beneficiaries, but this one is likely to be bad for almost everyone affected.
https://www.iflscience.com/one-of-the-worlds-most-important-ocean-currents-really-is-slowing-down-73554
reporting on a study at https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2024.1345426/fullA Harsh Mongolian Winter Leaves Millions of Livestock Dead
An unusually brutal winter in Mongolia has left much of the country’s grazing land frozen and snow-covered, starving or freezing millions of animals and upending thousands of lives in a country where a third of the population depends on herding and agriculture ... about 60 million animals face starvation until new grass sprouts in May, imperiling the future of herding families ... the rising frequency of extreme weather events has made herders’ lives more precarious. Droughts, dust storms, heavy rainfall and flooding have all tripled in the past decade, as temperatures in Mongolia rise twice as fast as the global average.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/29/world/asia/mongolia-winter-animals-dead.htmlThe world’s broken market for medicines
Ninety-one per cent of drugs prescribed in the US and 70 per cent in Europe are generics [but] manufacturing issues, weak supply chains and low pricing have combined to create a “broken market” for these medicines ... “The whole system has a just-in-time principle and any rupture in that causes a downstream shortage,” says Rob Moss, a hospital pharmacy consultant in Utrecht, the Netherlands ... drugs manufacturing involves making active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) [which are] converted into finished dosages during the second stage of manufacturing ... For both manufacturing stages, the world relies heavily on Indian and Chinese factories [and] Indian and Chinese manufacturers own over half of the quality certificates needed for drug APIs to be used in Europe ... Like globalised supply chains for other goods, this adds an element of uncertainty. “The more you are dependent on a producer far away, the more vulnerable you are to facing medicine shortages" ... policymakers are discussing the geopolitical risks of Chinese and Indian supply. A goal of an upcoming Critical Medicines Act from the European Union is to reshore some supply and encourage drug stockpiling. Currently, there is little incentive for manufacturers not to source from cheap factories in Asia using just-in-time supply mechanisms. “It has surprised me that there is a lot of talk of “strategic autonomy” around chips and all sorts of digital technologies [in Europe] but not so much around drugs,” says Diederik Stadig, a healthcare economist at Dutch bank ING [but it's] doubtful that this will happen any time soon.
https://www.ft.com/content/6143300d-d11a-4b2f-898c-87c5dd0ff6ceClimate Change Ignites Global Infectious Disease Alarm
A team of infectious diseases experts called for more awareness and preparedness in the medical field to deal with the impact of climate change on the spread of diseases. Their article, published on March 20 in JAMA raises the alarm about the emergence and spread of harmful pathogens ... Changing rain patterns are expanding vectors’ range and their active periods. Shorter, warmer winters and longer summers are also linked to more vector-borne diseases. For example, diseases caused by ticks (like babesiosis and Lyme disease) are now occurring in the winter too. They’re also being found in regions farther west and north than in the past ... Another concern is malaria. The mosquitos that transmit the disease are expanding northward, a climate-induced change.
https://scitechdaily.com/climate-change-ignites-global-infectious-disease-alarm
reporting on a study at https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2816446Rampant Wildfires Are Threatening a Collapse of the Amazon Rainforest
Real-time satellite monitoring shows that so far in 2024, more than 10,000 wildfires have ripped across 11,000 square kilometers of the Amazon, across multiple countries. Never have this many fires burned so much of the forest this early in the year. Scientists worry this is pushing the region closer and closer to a tipping point, where widespread degradation and repeated burning of the forest will become unstoppable ... dry season temperatures are, on average, 2 degrees higher than they were 40 years ago ... patterns of rainfall have also changed [and] the Amazon has become “more flammable” as a result. A study found that the drought that has afflicted the Amazon Basin since the middle of last year is primarily being driven by climate change.
https://www.wired.com/story/rampant-wildfires-collapse-amazon-rainforest/The heat index — how hot it feels — is rising faster than temperature
The temperature alone does not accurately reflect the heat stress people feel. Even the heat index itself, which takes into account the relative humidity and thus the capacity to cool off by sweating, gives a conservative estimate of heat stress ... This leads people to underestimate their chances of suffering hyperthermia on the hottest days and of their chances of dying ... global warming is affecting the interplay between humidity and temperature [b ecause] in the past, relative humidity typically dropped when the temperature increased, allowing the body to sweat more and thus feel more comfortable. But with climate change, the relative humidity remains about constant as the temperature increases, which reduces the effectiveness of sweating to cool the body. While the current study didn't try to predict when [the environment] might generate a heat index high enough to make everyone hyperthermic, "we can see that there are times when people are getting pushed in that direction," he said. "It's not terribly far off."
https://news.berkeley.edu/2024/03/19/the-heat-index-how-hot-it-feels-is-rising-faster-than-temperature
reporting on a study at https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad3144Climate Change Is Causing Trees To Struggle To “Breathe”
Trees are struggling to sequester heat-trapping carbon dioxide (CO2) in warmer, drier climates, meaning that they may no longer serve as a solution for offsetting humanity’s carbon footprint as the planet continues to warm, according to a new study ... under stressful conditions, trees release CO2 back to the atmosphere, a process called photorespiration. [This study] demonstrated that the rate of photorespiration is up to two times higher in warmer climates, especially when water is limited. They found the threshold for this response in subtropical climates begins to be crossed when average daytime temperatures exceed roughly 68 degrees Fahrenheit and worsen as temperatures rise further. The results complicate a widespread belief about the role of plants in helping to draw down, or use, carbon from the atmosphere.
https://scitechdaily.com/climate-change-is-causing-trees-to-struggle-to-breathe/
reporting on a study at https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2306736120Scotland’s 2030 climate goals are no longer credible
The Climate Change Committee [a UK government body] no longer believes that the Scottish Government will meet its statutory 2030 goal to reduce emissions by 75%. There is no comprehensive strategy for Scotland to decarbonise ... eighth time in the past 12 years that they have missed a target. “Scotland has laudable ambitions to decarbonise, but it isn’t enough to set a target; the Government must act. There are risks in all reviewed areas.” [said] Professor Piers Forster, interim Chair of the Climate Change Committee.
https://www.theccc.org.uk/2024/03/20/scotlands-2030-climate-goals-are-no-longer-credible/
reporting on a study at https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Progress-in-reducing-emissions-in-Scotland-2023-Report-to-Parliament.pdfUN weather agency issues ‘red alert’ on climate change after record heat, ice-melt increases in 2023
The World Meteorological Organization said there is a “high probability” that 2024 will be another record-hot year ... “What worries me the most is that the planet is now in a meltdown phase — literally and figuratively given the warming and mass loss from our polar ice sheets,” said Jonathan Overpeck, dean of the University of Michigan School for Environment and Sustainability, who wasn’t involved in the report. [Yet] “each year the climate story gets worse; each year WMO officials and others proclaim that the latest report is a wake-up call to decision makers,” said University of Victoria climate scientist Andrew Weaver, a former British Columbia lawmaker. “Yet each year, once the 24-hour news cycle is over, far too many of our elected ‘leaders’ return to political grandstanding, partisan bickering and advancing policies with demonstrable short-term outcomes,” he said. “More often than not everything else ends up taking precedence over the advancement of climate policy. And so, nothing gets done.”
https://apnews.com/article/wmo-un-climate-global-change-report-warming-2154285aabb0cf83dc9ca4015ea0016d
see also https://wmo.int/media/news/climate-change-indicators-reached-record-levels-2023-wmo
reporting on a study at https://wmo.int/publication-series/state-of-global-climate-2023Hypoxia is widespread and increasing in the ocean off the Pacific Northwest coast, study shows
Low oxygen conditions that pose a significant threat to marine life are widespread and increasing in coastal Pacific Northwest ocean waters as the climate warms ... "This confirms that these conditions are occurring across Pacific Northwest coastal waters ... with climate change, we are headed in a direction where this may be the norm" ... The new study, published recently in Scientific Reports, is based on data collected by an unprecedented number of research vessels and autonomous underwater gliders.
https://phys.org/news/2024-03-hypoxia-widespread-ocean-pacific-northwest.html
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-54476-0State Farm won’t renew 72,000 insurance policies in California, worsening the state’s insurance crisis
State Farm’s decision not to renew policies comes as thousands of Californians are finding it extremely difficult to insure their homes and commercial properties as companies increase rates, limit coverage or stop offering policies in areas increasingly susceptible to natural disasters ... State Farm reported a net loss of $6.3 billion in 2023 compared to a net loss of $6.7 billion in 2022. The lack of options has prompted thousands of Californians to purchase insurance from the [state sponsored] FAIR Plan as a last resort [but] the enrollment surge is putting a financial strain on the state insurer as it faces a potential loss of $311 billion, up from $50 billion in 2018 ... “We’re one bad fire season away from complete insolvency” said Assemblymember Jim Wood.
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-03-23/state-farm-wont-renew-72-000-insurance-policies-in-california-worsening-the-states-insurance-crisisNations Are Undercounting Emissions, Putting UN Goals at Risk
The national inventories of emissions supplied to the United Nations climate convention (UNFCCC) by most countries are anything but reliable, according to a growing body of research. The data supplied to the UNFCCC, and published on its website, are typically out of date, inconsistent, and incomplete ... The data from large emitters is as much open to questions as that from smaller and less industrialised nations. In China, the uncertainties around its carbon dioxide emissions from burning coal are larger than the total emissions of many major industrial countries. And companies preparing data for its carbon-trading system have been accused of widespread data fraud ... As a result, say analysts, the world is flying blind, unable either to verify national compliance with emissions targets or figure out how much atmospheric “room” countries have left for emissions before exceeding agreed warming thresholds ... “The existing patchwork of greenhouse-gas inventories is ... rife with measurement errors, inconsistent classification and gaps in accountability.”
https://e360.yale.edu/features/undercounted-emissions-un-climate-change
reporting on a study at https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4436504How plastic makers used recycling as a fig leaf
The plastics industry has worked for decades to convince people and policymakers that recycling would keep waste out of landfills and the environment. Yet from the early days of recycling, plastic makers, including oil and gas companies, knew that it wasn't a viable solution to deal with increasing amounts of waste ... making new plastic is relatively cheap. But recycling generally costs as much as or more than the material is worth, a director of environmental solutions at B.F. Goodrich explained at [an] industry meeting in 1992. The "basic issue," he said, "is economics." But the industry appears to have championed recycling mainly for its public relations value, rather than as a tool for avoiding environmental damage, the documents suggest. "We are committed to the activities, but not committed to the results," a vice president at Exxon Chemical said during a meeting in 1994 with staff for the American Plastics Council, a trade group ... Former industry officials have said the goal was to avoid regulations and ensure that demand for plastics, which are made from fossil fuels, kept growing. Despite years of recycling campaigns, less than 10% of plastic waste gets recycled globally, and the amount of plastic waste that's dumped in the environment continues to soar.
https://www.npr.org/2024/02/15/1231690415/plastic-recycling-waste-oil-fossil-fuels-climate-change
reporting on a study at https://climateintegrity.org/plastics-fraudAre we stressing the wrong metrics for climate change?
Experts say rising temperatures due to burning fossil fuels only explains part of the ways we're cooking our planet"Climate change is clearly well underway and represents a major, even existential threat that is not being adequately addressed" [but] when it comes to fixing climate change, humanity is missing a key point, one that [Dr. Kevin Trenberth, one of the world's foremost authorities on climate change] has repeatedly emphasized throughout his career: Warming and heating are not the same thing [and] if our species does not soon fully grasp both this fact and its implications, the consequences will be disastrous. It all comes down to a statistic known as EEI, or Earth Energy Imbalance, that measures the difference between the solar energy that reaches Earth and the amount which returns to space. [Even] if humanity reaches net zero in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, Trenberth pointed out, the planet will still be be much hotter than our recent past and present ... "At that point, there is no longer this close relationship between heating and temperature," Trenberth observed. "The temperature maybe stalls, doesn't go up anymore or not quite so much," but other issues caused by overheating such as problems with the water cycle will persist. Those problems will [still] lead to extreme weather events impacting millions of people.
https://www.salon.com/2024/03/08/are-we-stressing-the-metrics-for-climate-change/
reporting on a study at https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/10.1142/S2972312424750018The Oceans We Knew Are Already Gone
The alarming trend stretches around the world: 41 percent of the global ocean experienced heat waves in January. The temperatures are also part of a decades-long hot streak in the oceans. “What we used to consider extreme is no longer an extreme today,” [said] Dillon Amaya, a research scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ... many other changes will unfold alongside those hot ocean temperatures: stronger hurricanes, rising sea levels, unmanageable conditions for marine life. Our seas, in other words, will be altered within decades ... “the changes we’ve seen are more pronounced than any we had projected,” Fiamma Straneo, a climate professor at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, told me. If global warming reaches and stays in the range of 2 to 3 degrees Celsius above preindustrial norms, the West Antarctic ice sheet could “be lost almost completely and irreversibly” ... we can be confident that “we’ll be stuck with changed oceans for thousands of years,” Turner said ... if emissions decrease in the future, the oceans might return to their preindustrial state after that great burial. But that’s so far away, Turner said, that for us, the effects of climate change will be “effectively permanent.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2024/03/ocean-heat-wave-cosmic-choice/677672/Why Is the Sea So Hot?
A startling rise in sea-surface temperatures suggests that we may not understand how fast the climate is changing.
At the beginning of March [2023], sea-surface temperatures began to rise. By April, they’d set a new record: the average temperature at the surface of the world’s oceans, excluding those at the poles, was just a shade under seventy degrees ... temperatures remained abnormally high through the Southern Hemisphere’s autumn and beyond, breaking the monthly records ... Since the start of 2024, sea-surface temperatures have continued to climb; in February, they set yet another record ... does this mean that projections of warming, already decidedly grim, are underestimating the dangers? “It’s not like we’re breaking records by a little bit now and then,” Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami, said. “It’s like the whole climate just fast-forwarded by fifty or a hundred years. That’s how strange this looks.” It’s estimated that in 2023 the heat content in the upper two thousand metres of the oceans increased by at least nine zettajoules. For comparison, the world’s annual energy consumption amounts to about 0.6 zettajoules ... “I think the real test will be what happens in the next twelve months,” Wijffels said. “If temperatures remain very high, then I would say more people in the community will be really alarmed and say ‘O.K., this is outside of what we can explain.’” In 2023, which was by far the warmest year on record on land, as well as in the oceans, many countries experienced record-breaking heat waves or record-breaking wildfires or record-breaking rainstorms or some combination of these. If the climate projections are accurate, then the year was a preview of things to come, which is scary enough. But, if the projections are missing something, that’s potentially even more terrifying.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/why-is-the-sea-so-hotFatal heat wave strikes unspoiled swath of Great Barrier Reef
Seven months after Florida corals faced what scientists called their worst bleaching event ever, a similar emergency grips the Great Barrier Reef [which] appears likely to be the worst on record in southern sections of the 1,400-mile-long reef, and could bring the first significant coral fatalities observed there. In other sections, what is the fifth major bleaching event in nine years could serve as a test of how resilient the world wonder will be going forward ... How those events compare with this latest one will become clear in coming months as scientists survey the famous formation of some 2,900 coral reefs spread across an area the size of Italy. “This is an anxious time as we continue to collect information,” Wachenfeld said [and] there is the likelihood that severe bleaching events will become more common as the planet warms.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/03/13/great-barrier-reef-coral-bleaching/Methane emissions from energy sector rose in 2023 despite climate pledges
Methane emissions from the energy sector remained near a record high in 2023 despite commitments from the sector to plug leaking infrastructure in a bid to combat climate change, a report by the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday ... Large methane plumes from leaky fossil fuel infrastructure also jumped by 50% in 2023 compared with 2022, the IEA report said. One super-emitting event, detected by satellites, was a well blowout in Kazakhstan that lasted more than 200 days ... Methane emissions have held around 130 million metric tons level since 2019, the record high year, despite a commitment made by more than 150 countries since 2021 to reduce global methane emissions by at least 30% from 2020 levels by the end of this decade.
https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/methane-emissions-energy-sector-near-record-high-2023-iea-says-2024-03-13
reporting on a study at https://www.iea.org/reports/global-methane-tracker-2024Rains Are Scarce in the Amazon. Instead, Megafires Are Raging.
By this time of the year, rain should be drenching large swaths of the Amazon rainforest. Instead, a punishing drought has kept the rains at bay, creating dry conditions for fires that have engulfed hundreds of square miles of the rainforest that do not usually burn ... A record number of fires so far this year in the Amazon has also raised questions about what may be in store for the world’s biggest tropical rainforest when the dry season starts in June in the far larger southern part of the jungle. The fires in the Amazon, which reaches across nine South American nations, are the result of an extreme drought fueled by climate change, experts said ... If deforestation, fires and climate change continue to worsen, large stretches of the forest could transform into grasslands or weakened ecosystems [which] would trigger a collapse that could send up to 20 years’ worth of global carbon emissions into the atmosphere, an enormous blow to the struggle to contain climate change. Once this tipping point is crossed, “it may be useless to try to do something,” said Bernardo Flores, who studies the resilience of ecosystems at the Federal University of Santa Catarina in Brazil ... more devastating fires could erupt if the parched soil does not receive enough rainfall in the crucial wetter months ahead, Dr. Alencar said. “The question is whether the forest can recover before the dry season, whether the Amazon can recharge its batteries,” she said. “Now, it all depends on the rains.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/09/climate/amazon-rainforest-fires.htmlIndia's water problems set to get worse as the world warms
Winter storms that provide crucial snow and rainfall to northern India are arriving significantly later in the year ... "Some areas of Kashmir saw no snow at all in December or January. This is a serious concern for the 750 million people in the Indus and upper Ganges basins who rely on these winter snows for water supplies" ... The research team attributes this seasonal shift to changes in the subtropical jet stream, a high-altitude air current that steers western disturbances. The rapid warming of the Tibetan Plateau - which is a long stretch of level high ground at the intersection of Central, South, and East Asia - is creating a larger temperature contrast with surrounding areas, fueling a stronger jet stream that powers more frequent and intense storms. At the same time, global warming is weakening the temperature difference between the equator and poles that normally draws the jet stream northward in summer. As a result, the jet stream is increasingly lingering at southerly latitudes later into spring and summer, allowing more storms to strike North India after the winter snow season. Arriving in the pre-monsoon heat, these increasingly frequent late-season storms unleash heavy rainfall instead of snow, raising risks of devastating flooding. Meanwhile, winter snowfall is declining as the region warms, threatening spring water supplies.
https://www.reading.ac.uk/news/2024/Research-News/Indias-water-problems-set-to-get-worse-as-the-world-warms
reporting on a study at https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/345/2024/Water crisis shakes India’s Silicon Valley
With long queues at public taps and fewer showers, Bengaluru's residents reel under a water shortage
In India's Bengaluru city (formerly Bangalore), thousands of people have been chasing tankers, taking fewer showers and sometimes missing work to store enough water to get through the day. The southern metropolis - once called a pensioners' paradise because of its cool weather and lush gardens - is now more famous as India's info-tech hub where companies like Infosys, Wipro and hundreds of start-ups have plush offices. But years of rapid, often unplanned, expansion have taken a toll, and the city now appears bursting at its seams. "It is often said that traffic is the biggest problem in Bengaluru but actually water is the larger issue," says civic activist Srinivas Alavilli. Bengaluru's 15 million people need at least two billion litres of water every day [but] a weak monsoon last year depleted groundwater levels, which means new borewells have to be dug deeper to find water. This has led to a daily shortfall of 200 million litres in water supply.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-68509409NOAA: Annual 2023 Global Climate Report
2023 was the warmest year since global records began in 1850 ... The 10 warmest years in the 174-year record have all occurred during the last decade (2014–2023) ... 2005, which was the first year to set a new global temperature record in the 21st century, is now the 12th-warmest year on record [and] 2010, which had surpassed 2005 at the time, now ranks as the 11th-warmest year on record ... [More than] 90% of excess heat in the Earth's system is absorbed by the ocean [and] annual global ocean heat content (OHC) for 2023 for the upper 2000 meters was record high, surpassing the previous record set in 2021. The five highest OHC have all occurred in the last five years (2019–2023).
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202313Europe is not prepared for rapidly growing climate risks
Europe is the fastest warming continent in the world, and climate risks are threatening its energy and food security, ecosystems, infrastructure, water resources, financial stability, and people’s health .... Extreme heat, drought, wildfires, and flooding, as experienced in recent years, will worsen in Europe even under optimistic global warming scenarios ... Europe’s policies and adaptation actions are not keeping pace with the rapidly growing risks ... Southern Europe is particularly at risk from wildfires and impacts of heat and water scarcity on agricultural production, outdoor work, and human health. Flooding, erosion and saltwater intrusion threaten Europe’s low-lying coastal regions, including many densely populated cities.
https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/newsroom/news/europe-is-not-prepared-for
see also https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/mar/10/europe-unprepared-for-climate-risks-eea-report
reporting on a study at https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/european-climate-risk-assessmentHeat record broken for ninth consecutive month
Last month was the planet’s warmest February on record and the ninth consecutive month of record-breaking temperatures, according to data released Thursday. February was more than 1.7 degrees Celsius warmer than an average February in preindustrial times, reported Copernicus, the European Union’s climate monitoring service.
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4516011-heat-record-broken-ninth-straight-month-februaryThis winter was warmest in Canadian records by a huge margin
This past winter was the warmest in the country's records, and by a stunning margin, according to Environment Canada data shared by a senior climatologist. The average temperature for December, January and February was more than five degrees warmer than historic norms, preliminary figures show, an average all the more remarkable because it combines weather station data from places as distant as Nunavut, Ontario and P.E.I. That anomaly is so extreme, and so far above the previous record, that seeing it was a "shock" to David Phillips, senior climatologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada, he said ... The previous warmest winter in that more than three quarters of a century was in 2009-2010, a season 4.1 degrees above the historic norm. This past winter, however, was 5.2 degrees above the norm, breaking the old record by more than a full degree -- "as much of a difference as you'd ever find in climate," Phillips said, adding that a tenth of a degree is usually considered significant.
https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/these-are-numbers-are-just-wow-this-winter-was-warmest-in-canadian-records-by-a/article_12cbce98-dd7e-11ee-a1da-7b7004389e4f.htmlThe US had its warmest winter on record
Season capped off by the third-warmest February recorded The average temperature across the contiguous U.S. last month was 41.1 degrees F, 7.2 degrees F above the 20th-century average ... Persistent winter warmth resulted in a steady decrease in ice coverage across the Great Lakes, which reached a historic low of 2.7% on February 11 — the lowest amount of ice coverage on record during mid-February.
https://www.noaa.gov/news/us-had-its-warmest-winter-on-recordThe Arctic Ocean could be ‘ice-free’ within the decade, researchers warn
New research has found that Arctic Ocean sea ice is shrinking even faster than previously thought [and ice-free summer conditions] could occur before the end of the decade or sometime in the 2030s — as many as 10 years earlier than previous projections, according to a study published Tuesday in the journal Nature Reviews Earth and Environment ... “It’s no longer a remote possibility that might happen at some point,” said Alexandra Jahn, the study’s lead author and an associate professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder. “It occurs under all the emission scenarios” ... the decline of Arctic sea ice has been well documented since at least 1979 [said] Walter Meier, a senior researcher with the National Snow and Ice Data Center, who was not involved with the study. Meier said the study’s assessments are plausible [and] “given the emission scenarios that we’re following, it’s really a matter of when, not if” ... Jahn said some research has found there is still a 10% to 20% possibility of avoiding an ice-free Arctic altogether if the global temperature stays below 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming. “If we were to stop all emissions tomorrow — which physically isn’t possible, but if we could — then we could still avoid it,” Jahn said. “It’s not a guarantee, but there’s a possibility.” But even that possibility appears to be slipping away. In January, the global average temperature measured 1.66 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial reference period.
https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2024-03-05/the-arctic-ocean-could-be-ice-free-within-a-decade
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-023-00515-9New analysis shows that the global freshwater cycle has shifted far beyond pre-industrial conditions
For the past century, humans have been pushing the Earth's freshwater system far beyond the stable conditions that prevailed before industrialization. This is the first time that global water cycle change has been assessed over such a long timescale with an appropriate reference baseline. The findings, published in Nature Water, show that human pressures, such as dam construction, large-scale irrigation and global warming, have altered freshwater resources to such an extent that their capacity to regulate vital ecological and climatic processes is at risk ... "our immediate priority should be to decrease human-driven pressures on freshwater systems, which are vital to life on Earth," says Aalto's Associate Professor Matti Kummu, senior author of the study.
https://phys.org/news/2024-03-analysis-global-freshwater-shifted-pre.html
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s44221-024-00208-7Meltwater in the north Atlantic can lead to European summer heat waves, study finds
Scientists from the [UK] National Oceanography Centre (NOC) have discovered that increased meltwater in the North Atlantic can trigger a chain of events leading to hotter and drier European summers. The paper [proposes] that European summer weather is predictable months to years in advance, due to higher levels of freshwater in the North Atlantic ... "Greenland experienced an unusually warm summer, leading to increased freshwater input into the North Atlantic. Based on the identified chain of events, we expect that the ocean-atmosphere conditions will be favorable for an unusually warm and dry summer over southern Europe this year" ... the study suggests that European heat waves and droughts will become more intense in the future. The warming over Europe after strong freshwater releases in the North Atlantic will add to the warming already happening because of climate change, causing weather patterns to shift.
https://phys.org/news/2024-02-meltwater-north-atlantic-european-summer.html
reporting on a study at https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/109/2024/Amazon savannization and climate change are projected to increase dry season length and temperature extremes over Brazil
The combined effects of land use change and global warming resulted in a mean annual rainfall reduction of 44% and a dry season length increase of 69%, when averaged over the Amazon basin [and] resulted in maximum daily temperature anomalies, reaching values of up to 14 °C above the current climatic conditions over the Amazon. Also, as a consequence of both climate drivers, both soil moisture and surface runoff decrease over most of the country ... the fight to keep taps running is one that will sweep southern Europe as fossil fuel pollution heats it up and dries parts of it out. The western coasts of the Mediterranean, in particular, will be hit by increased evaporation, shorter rainy seasons and less mountain snow cover ... Catalonia offers a glimpse of that future.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-55176-5Church reemerges from reservoir as Spain faces droughts
Struck by a drought that has dried the reservoir to 1% of its capacity, the remains of the village have come back into view. Crumbling stone structures now sit on cracked soil among ashen plants. Catalonia, a rich region in the north-east of Spain, is in the grip of a drought that is killing its crops, choking its economy and restricting the lives of 6 million people who live under emergency measures.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/mar/02/it-makes-me-so-sad-church-reemerges-from-reservoir-as-spain-faces-droughtsClimate change is throwing the water cycle into chaos
In some places, the availability of water is becoming increasingly scarce, while in others, climate change is intensifying rainfall, floods and other extreme weather events. As the planet continues to warm, this cycle is expected to be increasingly stretched, warped and broken ... Years of overuse — in part because of rising temperatures and drought — are leading farmers to consume unsustainable amounts of stored groundwater and pushing some aquifers to the brink ... storms, likely intensified by climate change, relieved a drought and blanketed [California] in 2 to 3 times as much snow as usual. But all that precipitation made only a dent in the state’s overall groundwater deficit after seasons of drought, and groundwater levels remained lower than they were after a previous, four-year drought ended in 2016.
https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/climate-change-throwing-water-cycle-chaos-us-rcna137892Surprising methane discovery in Yukon glaciers: 'Much more widespread than we thought'
Researcher from the University of Copenhagen has discovered high concentrations of [methane] in meltwater from three Canadian mountain glaciers, where it was not thought to exist ... "We expected to find low values in the meltwater ... but the result was quite the opposite. We measured concentrations up to 250 times higher than those in our atmosphere," explains Sarah Elise Sapper of the University of Copenhagen's Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management ... Christiansen, the research article's co-author, believes that the finding demonstrates the possibility of methane being present beneath many of the world's glaciers, ones that have thus far been written off. "Sarah's findings change our basic understanding and send us back to the drawing board [because] the three sites Sarah measured were randomly selected due to the availability of a research station and helicopter, yet methane was found in all three."
https://phys.org/news/2024-02-methane-discovery-yukon-glaciers-widespread.htmlHistoric winter heat wave smashes records in central U.S., fuels tornadoes
The central United States has just witnessed what was probably its most significant February heat wave on record, after scores of records were not just broken, but demolished. Half a dozen states registered their highest February temperature on record, as did more than 130 cities and towns, including Minneapolis, Milwaukee, St. Louis and Detroit. Multiple locations also posted their highest temperatures ever observed during any of the winter months. The Weather Channel’s Jim Cantore described the spree of records as “just insane” ... The heat also fueled an outbreak of damaging tornadoes in the Midwest, including what was Michigan’s farthest-north tornado observed in February. At the same time, it contributed to massive wildfires that erupted in Texas and other parts of the Plains.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/02/28/record-heat-midwest-tornadoes-climate/Emergency atmospheric geoengineering wouldn’t save the oceans
Stratospheric aerosol injection is a commonly discussed geoengineering concept based on the idea that adding particles to the stratosphere could help cool the surface of the planet [but] it wouldn’t be enough to nudge “stubborn” ocean patterns such as Atlantic meridional overturning circulation [AMOC], which some research finds is already weakening. In that case, preexisting problems resulting from a warmed deep ocean, such as altered weather patterns, regional sea level rise and weakened currents, would remain in place ... Relying on geoengineering is “in a way, madness,” Pflüger said. “But the situation is already quite mad.”
https://news.agu.org/press-release/emergency-atmospheric-geoengineering-wouldnt-save-the-oceans/
reporting on a study at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GL106132Enhanced risk of record-breaking regional temperatures during the 2023–24 El Niño
The likelihood of global [temperature] exceeding historical records, calculated from July 2023 to June 2024, is estimated at 90%, contingent upon annual-mean sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific exceeding 0.6 °C. Regions particularly susceptible to recording record-high SAT include coastal and adjacent areas in Asia such as the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea, as well as Alaska, the Caribbean Sea, and the Amazon. This impending warmth heightens the risk of year-round marine heatwaves.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-52846-2Swiss Re: Economic losses set to increase due to climate change, with US and Philippines the hardest hit
Four weather perils – floods, tropical cyclones, winter storms in Europe and severe thunderstorms – today cause global estimated economic losses of USD 200 billion every year [and] climate change will have a larger impact on economic losses in the future ... Swiss Re Institute's new report "Changing climates: the heat is (still) on" analyses where hazards are likely to intensify and overlays it with its own estimates of economic losses resulting from the four major weather perils ... Philippines is most impacted by the four weather perils, while also being exposed to high probability of hazard intensification. The US is second-most exposed. At USD 97 billion (0.38% of GDP) as of today, it experiences the highest economic losses in absolute terms from weather events worldwide ... flood risk is projected to intensify globally.
https://www.swissre.com/press-release/Economic-losses-set-to-increase-due-to-climate-change-with-US-and-Philippines-the-hardest-hit-Swiss-Re-Institute-finds/3051a9b0-e379-4bcb-990f-3cc8236d55a1Map Shows 9 States Where Homeowners Are Losing Their Insurance
American National Group, an insurance company owned by Brookfield Asset Management Reinsurance Partners, plans to cease its homeowners insurance business in nine states ... part of plans to pull back in Arkansas, California, Colorado, Louisiana, Minnesota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota and Washington, according to a company official. "Several years of increased frequency and severity of weather events have caused an increased lack of profitability in this line of business." Major insurance firms like Allstate, Farmers and State Farm ceased providing homeowners insurance in certain states [such as California, Florida and South Carolina] due to similar reasons. "Climate adaptation ... will become very real, as more insurers scale back activities in even more regions affected by climate change."
https://www.newsweek.com/map-shows-9-states-where-homeowners-are-losing-their-insurance-1875252After a weird summer of floods and heatwaves, scientists explain why weather extremes are 'on steroids'
The word "unprecedented" is losing much of its power, as the world lurches from one crazy weather event to the next. In many ways the terms "climate change" and "global warming" don't do enough to describe what is happening to the world, as the burning of fossil fuels causes the earth's temperature to increase ... "The whole climate system is more violent, the pendulum swings wider than it used to. The weather is behaving more erratically" ... with more energy in the atmosphere, storms are becoming more intense. "When you have events like squall lines or cyclones, tornadoes, thunderstorms, they have more energy available to them," director of the Monash Energy Institute Roger Dargaville said. "So, they tend to be more intense and more extreme."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-28/global-warming-effect-on-extreme-weather-events/103471564South Korea’s fertility rate sinks to record low despite $270bn in incentives
South Korea’s demographic crisis has deepened with the release of data showing its birthrate – already the world’s lowest – fell to a new record low in 2023, despite billions of dollars in government schemes designed to persuade families to have more children. The average number of children a South Korean woman has during her lifetime fell to 0.72, from 0.78 in 2022 – a decline of nearly 8% ... Since 2006 the government has invested more than 360tn won ($270bn) in programmes to encourage couples to have more children, including cash subsidies, babysitting services and support for infertility treatment.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/28/south-korea-fertility-rate-2023-fall-record-low-incentivesBirths in Japan hit record low as government warns crisis at ‘critical state’
The number of babies born in Japan last year fell for an eighth straight year to a new low ... 5.1% decline from the previous year [and] the lowest number of births since Japan started compiling the statistics in 1899 ... Chief cabinet secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi told reporters Tuesday that the ongoing declining birthrate is at a “critical state ... The period over the next six years or so until 2030s, when the younger population will start declining rapidly, will be the last chance we may be able to reverse the trend” ... The number of births has been falling since 50 years ago, when it peaked at about 2.1 million. The decline to an annual number below 760,000 has happened faster than earlier projections.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/28/birth-rate-japan-record-low-2023-data-detailsLatest science shows endocrine disrupting chemicals in plastics, pesticides, and other sources pose health threats globally
Over the last fifty years such chemicals have cut worldwide fertility in half, among other health effects
The report, "Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals: Threats to Human Health" provides a comprehensive update on the state of the science around EDCs, with increasing evidence that this large group of toxic substances may be implicated in rising global health concerns [and] includes detailed analyses on exposure to EDCs from four sources: plastics, pesticides, consumer products (including children's products), and per-and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), a class of thousands of chemicals known or suspected to be EDCs ... "endocrine-disrupting chemicals that are part of our daily lives are making us more susceptible to reproductive disorders, cancer, diabetes, obesity, heart disease, and other serious health conditions," said the report's lead author, Andrea C. Gore, PhD, of the University of Texas at Austin ... Evidence suggests that EDCs in the environment contribute to disorders such as diabetes, neurological disorders, reproductive disorders, inflammation, and compromised immune functioning ... PFAS are used in hundreds of products including clothing and food packaging, but recent studies show that some PFAS can disrupt hormones such as estrogen and testosterone and impair thyroid hormone functions.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/02/240226204702.htmBehavioral Studies of Zebrafish Reveal a New Perspective on the Reproductive Toxicity of Micro- and Nanoplastics
The escalating prevalence of microplastics and nanoplastics [MNP] in aquatic environments is a major challenge affecting the behavior and reproductive health of aquatic organisms while posing potential risks to human health and ecosystems ... zebrafish, as a model organism, provide valuable insights into the subtle but important effects of MNPs on reproductive behavior, which is critical for understanding reproductive success, suggesting that behavioral changes can serve as an early biomarker of reproductive toxicity [and] indicated that the behavioral parameters of zebrafish can be used as an effective and rapid tool to evaluate the reproductive toxicity of MNPs ... Our analysis underscores the significant oxidative stress and hormonal changes caused by MNPs, especially their impact on the HPG axis and overall reproductive health. This work underscores the importance of behavioral analysis in zebrafish as a reliable method for assessing reproductive toxicity, offering a new perspective in understanding the broader implications of MNPs.
https://www.mdpi.com/2305-6304/12/3/178Microplastics Found in Every Human Placenta Tested, Study Finds
Using a new technique, researchers have now identified tiny particles and fibers of plastic less than a micron in size in the largest sample of placentas yet. As environmental plastic pollution continues to worsen, contamination of the placenta is on track to only increase, as humans breathe in and ingest more plastic than ever before. "Dose makes the poison," explains biologist Matthew Campen from the University of New Mexico. "If the dose keeps going up, we start to worry. If we're seeing effects on placentas, then all mammalian life on this plant could be impacted."
https://www.sciencealert.com/microplastics-found-in-every-human-placenta-tested-study-finds
reporting on a study at https://academic.oup.com/toxsci/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/toxsci/kfae021/7609801Latest Science Shows Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals in Plastics, Pesticides, and Other Sources Pose Health Threats Globally
Everyday exposures to EDCs in the environment may be linked to increasing rates of infertility and other serious conditions
A report from the world’s leading scientific and medical experts on hormone-related health conditions raises new concerns about the profound threats to human health from endocrine disruptor chemicals (EDCs) that are ubiquitous in our surroundings and everyday lives. The report, “Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals: Threats to Human Health” provides a comprehensive update on the state of the science around EDCs, with increasing evidence that this large group of toxic substances may be implicated in rising global health concerns.
https://www.endocrine.org/news-and-advocacy/news-room/2024/latest-science-shows-endocrine-disrupting-chemicals-in-pose-health-threats-globally
https://www.endocrine.org/-/media/endocrine/files/advocacy/edc-report2024finalcompressed.pdfAntarctica sea ice reaches alarming low for third year in a row
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/24/antarctica-sea-ice-reaches-alarming-low-for-third-year-in-a-rowProgressive unanchoring of Antarctic ice shelves since 1973
Mass loss of the Antarctic Ice Sheet has been driven primarily by the thinning of the floating ice shelves that fringe the ice sheet, reducing their buttressing potential and causing land ice to accelerate into the ocean ... Only 15% of pinning points [had issues] from 1973 to 1989, increasing to 25% from 1989 to 2000 and 37% from 2000 to 2022. A continuation of this trend would further reduce the buttressing potential of ice shelves, enhancing ice discharge and accelerating the contribution of Antarctica to sea-level rise ... loss of many of these pinning points is likely to be permanent [and] may represent the first steps of irreversible ice-shelf loss and subsequent mass loss of the previously impounded ice sheet.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07049-0Huge ice loss risks Antarctica’s ‘destabilisation’
Antarctica is coming under intense pressure from climate change, with sea ice levels nearing a record low at the same time as a rapid melting of swaths of the continent’s ice mass. The latest melting season in Antarctica, which takes place in the southern hemisphere summer during December, January and February, was more than a month longer in some areas of the continent ... Research published last month found that Antarctic sea ice extent fell to unprecedented lows at key periods across 2023. Sea temperatures have been exceptionally high across the world since last March
https://www.ft.com/content/deb66512-d866-43a6-bffa-3a37dbb48a8aRain Comes to the Arctic, With a Cascade of Troubling Changes
Rain used to be rare in the Arctic, but as the region warms, so-called “rain-on-snow events” are becoming more common. The rains accelerate ice loss, trigger flooding, landslides, and avalanches, and create problems for wildlife and the Indigenous people who depend on them ... All that rain is significant because the melting of the Greenland ice sheet — like the melting of other glaciers around the world — is one of the most important drivers of sea level rise. Each time a rain-on-snow event happens, says Harper, the structure of the firn layer is altered, and it becomes a bit more susceptible to impacts from the next melting event. “It suggests that only a minor increase in frequency and intensity of similar rain-on-snow events in the future will have an outsized impact,” he says ... Changes can already be seen. Thunderstorms are now spawning in places where they have historically been rare ... A shift from runoff dominated by snowmelt in spring and summer to runoff from both rain and snowmelt is accelerating permafrost thaw and ground slumping.
https://e360.yale.edu/features/arctic-rainfall-climate-change‘Our yields are going to be appalling’: one of wettest winters in decades hits England’s farms
Few regions have been spared. In the 12 months to January, only four of England’s 139 hydrological areas (regions around rivers, lakes and other water sources) were classed as having normal rainfall levels. Of the remaining areas, 47 were rated as having notably high levels, and 76 – more than half – were deemed exceptionally high. The Kent area, known as “the garden of England” and home to many arable farmers, experienced its wettest 12-month period since records began. Regions near major rivers such as the Wear, Don, Calder, Derwent, Mersey and Irwell reported the wettest six-month period since records began [and] the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (UKCEH) said the saturation from the previous months of heavy rain meant soil had not had a chance to dry out, and the high February rain meant problems persisted ... The forecasts for this year’s harvest look gloomy.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/feb/23/farms-flooding-rainfall-winter-nfu-conferenceErratic weather fueled by climate change will worsen locust outbreaks, study finds
The desert locust is a migratory insect that travels in swarms of millions over long distances ... A square kilometer swarm comprises 80 million locusts that can in one day consume food crops enough to feed 35,000 people. The U.N.'s Food and Agriculture Organization describes it as "the most destructive migratory pest in the world." The study, published in Science Advances on Wednesday, said these outbreaks will be "increasingly hard to prevent and control" in a warming climate ... Countries affected by desert locust outbreaks are already grappling with climate-driven extremes like droughts, floods and heat waves, and the potential escalation of locust risks in these regions could exacerbate existing challenges.
https://www.africanews.com/2024/02/15/erratic-weather-fueled-by-climate-change-will-worsen-locust-outbreaks-study-finds/
reporting on a study at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adj1164Alberta’s Brutal Water Reckoning
Alberta’s water reckoning has begun in earnest. Snowpack accumulations in the Oldman River basin, the Bow River basin and the North Saskatchewan River basin range from 33 to 62 per cent below normal. Ancient glaciers that feed and top up prairie rivers in the late summer melted at record speeds last year, the hottest on global records. Many indomitable ice packs, such as the well-studied Peyto Glacier, are disappearing altogether. Fifty-one river basins from Milk River to Hay River report critical water shortages due to low rainfall and high temperatures. Groundwater levels in parts of Alberta have reached record lows ... Alberta’s water emergency, which is also a fire emergency, was foretold by scores of water scientists. They predicted that prolonged water scarcity would hit southern Alberta hard for stubborn geographical reasons ... The scientists, in their paper, turned their attention to trends in glacier mass and snowpack depth, which also told a story of persistent decline. These dwindling snowpacks once provided water insurance for rivers in the months of May and June. But no more.
https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2024/02/19/Alberta-Brutal-Water-Reckoning/More frequent extreme droughts result in significant crop losses
Climate change has resulted in increasingly extreme weather events worldwide ... “Previously, short-term extreme droughts could occur every 100 years. According to some climate scenarios, we can expect them to happen every five to ten years in the future” ... The scientists investigated 170 sites worldwide. The results revealed a significant reduction in plant production in the studied ecosystems after [just] one year of extreme drought.
https://www.nibio.no/en/news/more-frequent-extreme-droughts-result-in-significant-crop-lossesSkyrocketing ocean temperatures have scientists scratching their heads
For nearly a year now, a bizarre heating event has been unfolding across the world’s oceans. In March 2023, global sea surface temperatures started shattering record daily highs and have stayed that way since ... where we are so far in 2024 [is] way, way above even 2023. While we’re nowhere near the Atlantic hurricane season yet—that runs from June 1 through the autumn—keep in mind that cyclones feed on warm ocean water, which could well stay anomalously hot in the coming months. Regardless, these surface temperature anomalies could be triggering major ecological problems already.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/02/skyrocketing-ocean-temperatures-have-scientists-scratching-their-heads/Rain Comes to the Arctic, With a Cascade of Troubling Changes
Rain used to be rare in the Arctic, but as the region warms, so-called rain-on-snow events are becoming more common. The rains accelerate ice loss, trigger flooding, landslides, and avalanches, and create problems for wildlife and the Indigenous people who depend on them ... All that rain is significant because the melting of the Greenland ice sheet — like the melting of other glaciers around the world — is one of the most important drivers of sea level rise. Each time a rain-on-snow event happens, says Harper, the structure of the firn layer is altered ... Greater rainfall will trigger more flooding, more landslides and avalanches, and more misery for Arctic animals.
https://e360.yale.edu/features/arctic-rainfall-climate-changeAfrica’s ice is disappearing
The few glaciers in Africa have long since become an important indicator of how rapidly and severely climate change is changing our planet. The ice on the high summits of the continent is rapidly disappearing, Africa may lose its white peaks by the middle of our century ... “Since the glaciers were mapped for the first time at the turn of the century between the 19th and the 20th century, more than 90 percent of their area has disappeared,” explains Anne Hinzmann ... The climate indicators of the glaciers in the tropical regions do not only show that climate change has long since started, it also shows that it is progressing at a breakneck speed. “A decrease at this scale is alarming ... The glaciers in Africa are a clear indicator of the impact of climate change.”
https://www.fau.eu/2024/02/21/news/research/africas-ice-is-disappearing/
reporting on a study at https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad1fd7‘Like the flip of a switch, it’s gone’: has the ecosystem of the UK’s largest lake collapsed?
The loss of these keystone species, alongside sharp reductions of others, the spread of invasive species like zebra mussels, and a long-term deterioration in water quality, indicates deep trouble across the lough’s entire ecology. It also raises the prospect that this shallow body of water and its surrounding wetlands may have shifted beyond a state of decline into cascading ecosystem collapse ... Lough Neagh – the largest freshwater lake in the UK – supplies more than 40% of Northern Ireland’s drinking water, and hosts the largest wild eel fishery in Europe [but] last summer, a vast “bloom” of blue-green algae – a thick, photosynthesising blanket that deprives the lake of oxygen, choking aquatic life – brought the lough’s accelerating biodiversity crisis into sharp focus. It prompted considerable public outcry and is expected to return in “more severe” form this coming summer.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/feb/19/like-the-flip-of-a-switch-its-gone-has-the-ecosystem-of-the-uk-largest-lake-collapsed-aoe'Zombie Fires' burning at an alarming rate in Canada
Overwintering fires ... burn slowly below the surface, and are kept alive thanks to an organic soil called peat moss common in North America's boreal forest and to thick layers of snow that insulate them ... in January, [BC] saw an unprecedented peak of 106 active zombie fires [and] 91 are still burning ... those that are not extinguished by March could reignite once the snow melts and they are exposed to air. Because of this, scientists have linked them to early starts of wildfire seasons ... More than 18 million hectares (44 million acres) of land were burned by wildfires in Canada in 2023 - an area roughly the size of Cambodia - far surpassing the country's 10-year average ... the effect was felt well beyond Canada's borders when smoke blanketed a large section of the US in June. That calamitous wildfire season is one of the reasons why BC is now seeing such a high number of zombie fires [as] most of them are fires that could not be put out fully [plus] the extreme drought that the province has been dealing with over the last two years ... [zombie fires] have become more common in recent years due to a rapidly warming climate.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68228943NOAA: Ice coverage nearly nonexistent across the Great Lakes, as the historical peak approaches
Great Lakes ice coverage was record low to start January in large part due to well-above average warmth across the region in December, paired with the lack of any major Arctic air blasts ... ice formation across the lakes did not pick up in January, and it has been nearly nonexistent as far as mid-February normals go ... coverage has steadily fallen into never-before-recorded levels for mid-February. Daily record-low ice cover has persisted across the Great Lakes since February 8, 2024, and this week dropped to under 3 percent. As of February 15, 2024, Lake Erie is completely ice free and Lake Ontario has less than 1 percent ice coverage.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/ice-coverage-nearly-nonexistent-across-great-lakes-historical-peakRoyal Meteorological Society: 2023's Antarctic sea ice extent is the lowest on record
In 2023, sea ice extent fell to record lows, reaching unprecedented values for both the summer minimum, winter maximum and intervening freeze-up period. Here, we show that the extreme values observed were truly remarkable within the context of the satellite record ... The sheer magnitude and rarity of the anomalies observed hints that something unusual is happening in the Antarctic and that climate change may be involved [and] it seems inescapable that Antarctic sea ice will begin to decline in response to anthropogenic climate change. In fact, several studies have hinted that recent record low sea ice years may be less unusual in the near future ... Southern Ocean warming has been robustly linked to rising anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and the direct connection between recent low sea ice conditions and the buildup of ocean heat suggests a causal link to human-caused climate change.
https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wea.4518Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course
Here, we show results of the first tipping event in the Community Earth System Model, including the large climate impacts of the collapse. Using these results, we develop a physics-based and observable early warning signal of AMOC tipping: the minimum of the AMOC-induced freshwater transport at the southern boundary of the Atlantic. Reanalysis products indicate that the present-day AMOC is on route to tipping [which would] strongly influence the regional climates across the globe. The European climate is significantly different after the AMOC collapse ... AMOC-induced precipitation changes could severely disrupt the ecosystem of the Amazon rainforest and potentially lead to cascading tipping ... changes occur within a relatively short period and under a very small change in surface freshwater forcing ... This is bad news for the climate system and humanity as up until now one could think that AMOC tipping was only a theoretical concept.
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189
see also: a good and very readable article based on this study at
Beyond the tipping point: The Collapse of Ocean Currents and its Weather impact on the United States and Europe
https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/ocean-currents-near-a-tipping-point-of-collapse-weather-effects-united-states-europe-faPivotal moment for humanity as tipping point threats and opportunities accelerate, report warns
An acceleration in threats from Earth system tipping points, which occur when small changes spark often rapid and irreversible transformations, has set humanity on a disastrous trajectory, a new report shows. Based on an assessment of 26 negative Earth system tipping points, the report says "business as usual" is no longer possible — with rapid changes to nature and societies already happening, and more coming ... Professor Caroline Lear, one of the report's co-authors from Cardiff University's School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, said, "Our research shows that in the past, even small natural changes in greenhouse gas concentrations had a domino effect changing different parts of our planet [and] without more significant climate action we expect to see a similar domino effect from the much faster changes in greenhouse gas concentrations caused by burning fossil fuels." Without urgent action to halt the climate and ecological crisis, societies will be overwhelmed as the natural world comes apart, the authors warn.
https://phys.org/news/2024-02-pivotal-moment-humanity-threats-opportunities.html
reporting on a study at https://global-tipping-points.org/A ‘collapse’ is looming for Louisiana’s coastal wetlands, scientists say
New research documents how a sudden burst of sea level rise over the past 13 years — the type of surge once not expected until later this century — has left the overwhelming majority of [Louisiana’s] coastal wetland sites in a state of current or expected “drowning,” where the seas are rising faster than wetlands can grow ... “If this rate of sea level rise continues for another 10 or 20 years, then we would probably lose the vast majority of our wetlands in that time period,” said Torbjorn Tornqvist, a Tulane wetlands expert and the second of the study’s three authors ... Brady Couvillion, a wetlands expert with the U.S. Geological Survey, has also found a recent speedup in the rate of Louisiana wetland losses ... Adam Langley, a wetlands researcher and biology professor at Villanova University who was not involved in Thursday’s study, said the new paper’s findings are broadly consistent with what scientists around the world are documenting.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/02/15/louisiana-coastal-erosion-swamp-wetland-loss/How Did We Miss 20% of Greenland’s Ice Loss?
The ice loss was hidden in places existing monitoring methods can’t reach, such as hard-to-map fjords The Greenland Ice Sheet has lost more than 1,000 gigatons (Gt) of ice to calving since 1985—increasing previous estimates of mass loss by 20%. This revised number comes from a recent study of the territory’s glaciers over almost 4 decades. The research also revealed marine-terminating glaciers that responded more strongly to seasonal temperature changes also lost more mass over time ... The new estimate could mean Atlantic Ocean circulation is less stable than previously thought.
https://eos.org/articles/how-did-we-miss-20-of-greenlands-ice-loss
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06863-2Climate experts sound alarm over thriving plant life at Greenland ice sheet
Significant areas of Greenland’s melted ice sheet are now producing vegetation, risking increased greenhouse gas emissions, rising sea levels and instability of the landscape. A study has documented the change since the 1980s and shows that large areas of ice have been replaced with barren rock, wetlands and shrub growth, creating a change in environment ... As ice has retreated, the amount of land with vegetation growing on it has increased by 33,774 sq miles, more than twice the area covered when the study began. The findings show a near-quadrupling of wetlands across Greenland, which are a source of methane emissions ... warmer air temperatures are causing the ice to retreat and since the 1970s the region has been heating up at double the global average rate.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/13/flourishing-vegetation-greenland-ice-sheet-alarm-climate-crisis
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-52124-1Flowers are blooming up to 22 days earlier due to climate change
Researchers from the University of Seville have conducted a significant study to explore the effects of climate change on the flora of Doñana National Park [Spain]. The backdrop of this study is a notable increase in temperatures in the area, with an average rise of 1°C [which] led to a significant shift in the plant community’s peak flowering time, moving forward by 22 days, from May 9 to April 17 ... affecting 80% of the observed species by advancing their flowering start, and 68% by moving up the end of their flowering period ... the advancing flowering times due to climate change could disrupt the synchronization between plants and their pollinator insects.
https://www.earth.com/news/flowers-are-blooming-up-to-22-days-earlier-due-to-climate-change/The spiralling cost of insuring against climate disasters
Global warming is making extreme weather events such as storms, floods and wildfires more frequent and severe ... As firms exit some areas and demand higher premiums in others, affordable home insurance cover — for many an essential annual outlay, often a condition of their mortgage debt — is getting harder to secure ... In the US, a repricing of risks has sparked a significant rise in premiums. Several big US insurers, including State Farm and The Hartford, have paused their underwriting of new home policies ... All this is adding greater urgency and attention to a challenge long predicted by environmental activists: that climate change will make parts of the world uninsurable.
https://www.ft.com/content/ed3a1bb9-e329-4e18-89de-9db90eaadc0b
or https://archive.ph/uAYNIStorms in California hit homeowners already facing an insurance crisis
Insurance costs in much of California have become exceedingly high, with some insurers abandoning the market, unwilling to take on the risk presented by the frequency and severity of climate disasters in the region. But it is not just California ... Home insurance woes are becoming even more widespread [and] competition isn’t coming to save the day. [In the past] a competitor would always move in. “But that isn’t happening now.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/06/economy/storms-california-homeowners-insurance/index.htmlLandmark UN report: world’s migratory species of animals are in decline, and global extinction risk is increasing
The first-ever State of the World’s Migratory Species report was launched today by the Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals (CMS), a UN biodiversity treaty, at the opening of a major UN wildlife conservation conference (CMS COP14). The landmark report reveals:
• More than one-in-five (22 per cent) of CMS-listed species are threatened with extinction.
• Nearly all (97 per cent) of CMS-listed fish are threatened with extinction.
• The extinction risk is growing for migratory species globally, including those not listed under CMS.
• The two greatest threats to both CMS-listed and all migratory species are overexploitation and habitat loss due to human activity.
https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/press-release/landmark-un-report-worlds-migratory-species-animals-are-decline-andSpring plants bloom a month earlier due to high temperatures
Spring plants [in the Netherlands] bloom one month earlier than 50 years ago, natural scientists Arnold van Vliet and Wichertje Bron from Natuurkalender and Wageningen University and Letty de Weger from LUMC wrote in the scientific journal Nature Today. Plants such as spearwort, yellow dogwood, snowdrops and crocus are already in full bloom.
https://nltimes.nl/2024/02/11/spring-plants-bloom-month-earlier-due-high-temperaturesThe Roman Empire’s Worst Plagues Were Linked to Climate Change
The sixth-century C.E. Plague of Justinian was “a pestilence, by which the whole human race came near to being annihilated,” according to the Byzantine historian Procopius. Up to half the population of the Roman Empire and tens of millions of people around the Mediterranean may have been killed ... a new study published on Friday in Science Advances links this—and other pandemics in the Roman Empire—to climate change [that] caused stresses in Roman society that resulted in such pandemics [and] shows how a changing climate can have dire consequences for societies that are not robust enough to withstand the upheavals it can cause ... These disruptions included declines in food supplies and the prevalence of rats, mosquitoes and other pests ... “when you have rapid climate change, it’s very destabilizing—it displaces ecosystems, and it destabilizes societies.”
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-roman-empires-worst-plagues-were-linked-to-climate-change/
reporting on a study at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk1033World's first year-long breach of key 1.5C warming limit
For the first time, global warming has exceeded 1.5C across an entire year, according to the EU's climate service. Limiting long-term warming to 1.5C above "pre-industrial" levels - before humans started burning large amounts of fossil fuels - has become a key symbol of international efforts to tackle climate change. But temperatures have kept rising at a concerning pace ... February 2023 to January 2024 reached 1.52C of warming. The world's sea surface is also at its highest ever recorded average temperature - yet another sign of the widespread nature of climate records.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-68110310US scientists say one-in-three chance 2024 another year of record heat
This year has a one-in-three chance of being even hotter than 2023, which was already the world's hottest on record ... [NOAA] confirmed the findings of EU scientists that 2023 was the warmest since records began in 1850 ... heat stored in the upper layers of the ocean also reached a record high last year, NOAA said ... [due to] climate change, driven by the burning of fossil fuels, alongside an El Nino climate pattern that emerged halfway through the year [and] is expected to persist until at least April, increasing the likelihood 2024 will be another record year. NOAA said there was a one-in-three chance that 2024 would be warmer than 2023, and a 99% chance it would rank among the five warmest on record.
https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/us-scientists-say-one-in-three-chance-2024-another-year-record-heat-2024-01-12What's causing the Amazon's ongoing record drought?
As deforestation and fire degrade the forest along edges and roads, the Amazon's rain-making capacity gets weaker. Dry seasons get longer, and surface water dwindles. Mature trees succumb to droughts, and new ones fail to replace them ... In a 2018 essay in Science Advances, two Amazon experts pointed out that many models project that without deforestation and fires, an Amazon tipping point wouldn't be reached until global warming surpassed 4° Celsius above the pre-industrial. Without climate change, models estimated it would take deforestation rates of about 40 percent to push the Amazon past its tipping point [but] the combined "negative synergies" of multiple human impacts—fire, deforestation, and climate change—are very likely to lower the threshold [so] the tipping point may be a lot closer than we think.
https://phys.org/news/2024-02-amazon-ongoing-drought.htmlHurricanes becoming so strong that new category needed, study says
Scientists propose new category 6 rating to classify ‘mega-hurricanes’, becoming more likely due to climate crisis
Hurricanes are becoming so strong due to the climate crisis that the classification of them should be expanded to include a “category 6” storm, furthering the scale from the standard 1 to 5, according to a new study. [These] would include all hurricanes with sustained winds of 192mph or more. Such mega-hurricanes are becoming more likely due to global heating, studies have found, due to the warming of the oceans and atmosphere ... The new study, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, proposes an extension to the widely used Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/05/hurricanes-becoming-so-strong-that-new-category-needed-study-says
reporting on a study at https://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.2308901121Currently stable parts of East Antarctica may be closer to melting than anyone realized
In a paper published Jan. 19 in Geophysical Research Letters, researchers at Stanford have shown that the Wilkes Subglacial Basin in East Antarctica, which holds enough ice to raise global sea levels by more than 10 feet, could be closer to runaway melting than anyone realized ... [The new data could] mean that large sections of ground under the ice sheet are either close to thawing or made up of closely intermixed frozen and thawed areas. If the latter is true, the glaciers in the Wilkes Subglacial Basin could reach a tipping point with only a small increase in temperature at the base of the ice sheet. “This suggests that glacial retreat could be possible in the future,” Dawson said ... “This area has conditions that we could imagine changing,” Schroeder said. “And if warm ocean water gets there, it’s going to ‘turn on’ a whole sector of Antarctica we don’t normally think about as a contributor to sea level rise.”
https://engineering.stanford.edu/magazine/currently-stable-parts-east-antarctica-may-be-closer-melting-anyone-realized
reporting on a study at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GL105450Ocean heating breaks record, again, with disastrous outcomes for the planet
https://news.mongabay.com/2024/01/ocean-heating-breaks-record-again-with-disastrous-outcomes-for-the-planet/
reporting on a study at https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-024-3378-5Great Lakes average ice cover drops to 6%, one of lowest levels ever recorded
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/feb/12/great-lakes-average-ice-coverGreat Lakes may have already had the peak ice for this winter [in January]
The amount of ice on the Great Lakes has been incredibly low so far this winter. In looking at the ice concentration graphs and knowing the weather coming in the first two weeks of February, the Great Lakes may have already had the peak ice for this winter ... With the warm weather coming in the first two weeks of February, temperatures will be in the 30s, 40s and 50s [Farenheit] around the Great Lakes region. Ice cover should continue to shrink. Even if we get a return to some normal cold in the second half of February it will be almost impossible for the Great Lakes to build ice back to a level higher than January.
https://www.mlive.com/weather/2024/01/great-lakes-ice-cover-doing-almost-the-unthinkable.htmlClimate change made 2023 the hottest and wettest year in Dutch history: KNMI
The cause is also clear, the meteorological institute emphasized: climate change
Until recently, the KNMI always compared the annual temperature with the average temperature over 30 years. That was called the climatic normal - after all, the weather is always different, but if you take 30 years together, it gives a good average. “But now we can no longer actually speak of a climate normal,” said Van Aalst. Last year, the Netherlands was 1.3 degrees warmer than the climate normal. “But the average has shifted more and more. If we compare the temperature of 2023 with the average of the first 30 years when measurements started in 1901, our country was 2.9 degrees warmer last year than then. That is a really big difference” ... The KNMI is further surprised by certain turning points where the world already seems much closer to disaster than previously thought. “We saw that a record amount of ice in Antarctica has melted. Things are already happening there that we did not expect. We have to keep a close eye on this to know what is coming our way.”
https://nltimes.nl/2024/01/31/climate-change-made-2023-hottest-wettest-year-dutch-history-knmiArctic Could Be Sea Ice Free in the Summer by the 2030s
Summer sea ice in the Arctic could melt almost completely by the 2030s—roughly a decade earlier than projected—even if humans cut back drastically on greenhouse gas emissions, new research suggests. “We are very quickly about to lose the Arctic summer sea-ice cover, basically independent of what we are doing,” Dirk Notz, a climate scientist at the University of Hamburg in Germany [said]. An ice-free summer, also called a “blue ocean event,” will happen when the sea ice drops below one million square kilometers (386,102 square miles) ... Previous assessments using models have estimated an ice-free summer under high and intermediate emissions scenarios by 2050. But researchers noticed differences between what climate models predicted and what they've actually seen through observations. Now, in a new study published in Nature Communications, Notz, Gillett and their colleagues tweaked these models to more closely fit satellite data collected over the past 40 years. Using these modified models, the researchers projected ice changes under different possible levels of greenhouse gas emissions. Their paper suggests that regardless of emissions scenario, “we may experience an unprecedented ice-free Arctic climate in the next decade or two” ... Sea ice decline could have catastrophic consequences that extend to the rest of the planet. “It’s already happening,” [said] Mark C. Serreze, the director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado Boulder who was not involved with the new research.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/arctic-could-be-sea-ice-free-in-summer-by-2030s-180982326
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-38511-8Some Animals Are Desperately Turning Nocturnal, Study Shows
When a cheetah hunts at night, the risks from larger leopards and lions increase. When the Alpine ibex scours for its vegetation-filled meal in the dark, it takes on greater threat of being eaten itself (most commonly by a wolf). But these tradeoffs are occurring across the globe, as animals wary of rising daytime temperatures turn their activities to cooler nights. The studies highlighting this correlation between warming temperatures driving animals to turn nocturnal—even when it decreases their risk of survival, thanks to predatory activity—keep coming. The latest, a study published in the Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, tracked the activity of 47 ibex in two protected areas.
https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/animals/a46597422/warming-temperatures-are-turning-animals-nocturnal/
reporting on a study at https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2023.1587Coral reef monitor adds new alert levels to keep up with soaring ocean temperatures
Coral Reef Watch is a program run by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that uses satellites and computer models to monitor heat risk to reefs. Since it first launched in 2009, Coral Reef Watch has used two alert categories for monitoring heat risk to coral reefs — Level 1, which means reefs are at risk of coral bleaching, and Level 2, which means indicates the risk of "mortality of heat-sensitive corals." But in December 2023 — on the heels of a massive summer marine heatwave — the group added three more alert levels, which it unveiled publicly this month. Level 3 indicates a risk of multi-species mortality for corals, Level 4 means more than half the corals in a reef could die, and Level 5 means "risk of near-complete mortality." "An alert Level 5 condition really represents the most extreme, worst-case scenario, that you could anticipate happening on a coral reef from heat stress," Manzello said. Before 2023, he says there were only three instances of heating at this level described in scientific literature. [But] that's what happened to several reefs during the summer heatwaves of 2023, the effects of which were documented in a NOAA-University of Queensland study published in December ... the degree of ocean warming in 2023 and 2024 has been "unprecedented in modern times."
https://www.cbc.ca/radio/asithappens/coral-reef-watch-alerts-1.7103786
reporting on a study at https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-university-of-queensland-report-marine-heatwaves-severely-impacting-coralsPermafrost alone holds back Arctic rivers—and a lot of carbon
Permafrost, the thick layer of soil that stays frozen for two or more years at a time, is the reason that Arctic rivers are uniformly confined to smaller areas and shallower valleys than rivers to the south, according to a study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. But permafrost also is an increasingly fragile reservoir of vast amounts of carbon. As climate change weakens Artic permafrost, the researchers calculate that every 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degree Celsius) of global warming could release as much carbon as 35 million cars emit in a year as polar waterways expand and churn up the thawing soil ... "if things get warm and suddenly river channels start to win, we're going to see a large amount of carbon get released into the atmosphere. That will likely create this warming feedback loop that leads to the release of more greenhouse gases" ... Permafrost's power to limit the footprint of Arctic rivers also allows it to store vast amounts of carbon in the frozen earth, according to the study. To estimate the carbon that would be released from these watersheds due to climate change, the researchers combined the amount of carbon stored in permafrost with the soil erosion that would result as the ground thaws and is washed away as Arctic rivers spread. Research suggests that the Arctic has warmed by more than 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) above pre-industrial levels, or roughly since 1850.
https://phys.org/news/2024-02-permafrost-arctic-rivers-lot-carbon.html
reporting on a study at https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2307072120RIVM has known about PFAS in eggs beyond Dordrecht for years
The Dutch Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) has known for years that there are high concentrations of toxic PFAS in eggs from hobby chicken keepers throughout the Netherlands. The institute published a study that showed this in 2015, NOS reports ... A spokesperson for the RIVM told the [NOS] broadcaster that the 2015 study can’t be compared to the recent one in Dordrecht because measuring methods have become much more sensitive in the intervening decade ... The RIVM quickly decided to discourage the consumption of hobby eggs in Dordrecht based on how high the values were in the preliminary results. The RIVM doesn’t want to do the same nationwide based on research using outdated measuring methods, the spokesperson said ... Professor Jacob de Boer and university researcher Chiel Jonker called it weird that the RIVM is using outdated measuring methods as a reason not to warn of a potential risk. According to them, the fact that scientists found too-high levels of PFAS using less sensitive measuring methods should be reason for alarm, not complacency ... PFAS is a collective name for thousands of chemical substances that can be harmful to people and the environment [causing problems such as infertility by acting as endocrine disruptors]. PFAS are typically used to make non-stick coatings and products that resist heat, oil, stains, grease, and water.
https://nltimes.nl/2024/02/02/rivm-known-pfas-eggs-beyond-dordrecht-yearsTexas Is Already Running Out of Water
Parts of the state are starting the year with low reserves. With light winter rains failing to replenish supply, and a scorching summer predicted, key areas may be pushed to the brink. That’s bad news for places like far-south Texas, where big reservoirs on the Lower Rio Grande fell from 33 percent to 23 percent full over the past 12 months. A repeat of similar conditions would leave the reservoirs far lower than they’ve ever been, triggering an emergency response and an international crisis ... In Corpus Christi, on the south Texas coast, authorities last month stopped releasing water aimed at maintaining minimum viable ecology in the coastal wetlands, even as oil refineries and chemical plants remain exempt from water use restrictions during drought. Also last month, in the sprawling suburbs of Central Texas, between Austin and San Antonio, one groundwater district declared stage 4 drought for the first time in its 36-year history. Texans don’t usually talk about drought in the winter ... “Signs are not favorable,” said Greg Waller, a coordinating hydrologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Fort Worth. “Expect warmer and drier, again” ... Last year was the hottest on record for Texas—and the Earth, according to NOAA—after a global heat wave shattered temperature records around the world. These patterns, Waller said, are consistent with scientific understanding of climate change caused by carbon emissions. “Climate change means the extremes are going to get more extreme,” he said. “The heat waves are going to get more heat. The droughts are going to get droughty-er and the floods are going to get floody-er.”
https://www.wired.com/story/texas-water-drought-winter-weather-shortageMajority of America’s underground water stores are drying up, study finds
More than half of the aquifers in the United States (53 percent) are losing water, according to research published Wednesday in Nature. “Groundwater levels are declining rapidly in many areas,” co-author Scott Jasechko of the University of California, Santa Barbara told The Hill. “And what’s worse, the rate of groundwater decline is accelerating in a large portion of areas,” Jasechko said. The impacted aquifers support much of the U.S. food system, as well as providing water used by many Americans. And the country is not alone in its losses: The study found rapid loss of water in aquifers that supply hundreds of millions of people worldwide. “We’re finding that in dry places where a large portion of the land is under cultivation, groundwater level declines are, if anything, accelerating over time,” Jasechko said.
https://thehill.com/policy/equilibrium-sustainability/4426143-majority-of-americas-underground-water-stores-are-drying-up-study-findsWater-guzzling ‘hot drought’ in the West is unprecedented in at least 5 centuries, study suggests
The West’s recent heat-driven megadroughts are unprecedented in at least 500 years, new research shows ... “What we’re seeing is that megadrought conditions are being amplified by anthropogenically driven (human caused) temperature increases,” said Karen King, lead author of the study ... Wednesday’s study builds on previous research, including one study that found the last two decades in the West have been the driest in 1,200 years, and the human-caused climate crisis made the yearslong dry spell 72% worse ... “When you put the two (studies) together, it paints a very cohesive picture that this anthropogenic influence on increased hot drought, particularly in the Southwest, is unprecedented over the last several centuries.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/24/climate/hot-drought-west-climate/index.html
reporting on a study at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adj4289Prepare for a ‘Gray Swan’ Climate
The next climate extremes are both predictable and unprecedented, and they’re coming on fast.
The way to think about climate change now is through two interlinked concepts. The first is nonlinearity, the idea that change will happen by factors of multiplication, rather than addition. The second is the idea of “gray swan” events, which are both predictable and unprecedented ... “As we push toward a warmer world, with this nonlinear multiplicative factor, we’re pushing into this realm of things we haven’t seen before,” Shaw told me. “It’s not just inching toward more breaking records, but shattering them. It’s something that we should expect.” Among these new extremes will be gray-swan events. These are not like black-swan events, which Shaw described as completely “unpredictable or unforeseeable”. Instead, scientists will start to observe things that they can foresee based on physics, but that haven’t appeared in the historical record before. “As we reflect, as climate scientists, on events that we see emerging, there are these record-shattering, extreme events" ... We all have to live in the world that results, one way or another. "This is really uncharted territory.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2024/01/climate-change-acceleration-nonlinear-gray-swan/677201/Scientists retrieve rare methane hydrate samples for climate and energy study
Methane hydrates are an ice-like form of methane found under high pressure and low temperatures. They are commonly formed on and under the seafloor and under arctic permafrost. However, the hydrates dissipate quickly at pressures found at the Earth's surface, which releases methane into the atmosphere. The solid hydrates are incredibly energy-dense, with each unit of methane hydrate holding 165 times the energy of an equivalent volume of gas at surface conditions [and] is also a potent greenhouse gas ... "We have a really poor understanding of how much there is," said Ann Cook, a professor at The Ohio State University School of Earth Sciences and a scientist on the mission. "We know there's a lot, but our estimates vary by orders of magnitude."
https://phys.org/news/2024-01-scientists-rare-methane-hydrate-samples.htmlAfter years of stability, Antarctica is losing ice
In contrast to the far north, the southern continent’s massive ice sheets, glaciers, ice shelves (ice that floats on the ocean), and seasonal ice appeared to be reliably frozen [but] the situation has changed. On balance, Antarctica is now losing ice. And more and more, scientists are concerned about that melting and its potential impacts. [Includes links to a number of good explanatory articles and studies.]
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/01/after-years-of-stability-antarctica-is-losing-ice/Greenland losing 30 million tonnes of ice an hour, study reveals
Some scientists are concerned that this additional source of freshwater pouring into the north Atlantic might mean a collapse of the ocean currents called the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc) ... “The changes around Greenland are tremendous and they’re happening everywhere – almost every glacier has retreated over the past few decades,” said Dr Chad Greene, at Nasa’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in the US, who led the research ... The Amoc was already known to be at its weakest in 1,600 years and in 2021 researchers spotted warning signs of a tipping point. A recent study suggested the collapse could happen as soon as 2025 in the worst-case scenario. A significant part of the Greenland ice sheet itself is also thought by scientists to be close to a tipping point of irreversible melting, with ice equivalent to 1-2 metres of sea level rise probably already expected.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/17/greenland-losing-30m-tonnes-of-ice-an-hour-study-revealsModeling study finds alpine glaciers will lose at least a third [and up to 65%] of their volume by 2050
[A] more realistic projection from the study shows that, without drastic changes or measures, if the melting trend of the last 20 years continues, almost half (46%) of the Alps' ice volume will actually have disappeared by 2050. This figure could even rise to 65%, if we extrapolate the data from the last ten years alone ... "The data used to build the scenarios stopped in 2022, a year that was followed by an exceptionally hot summer. It is, therefore, likely that the situation will be even worse than the one we present," states Samuel Cook, a researcher at UNIL and first author of the study.
https://phys.org/news/2024-01-alpine-glaciers-volume.html
reporting on a study at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL105029Canadian tar sands pollution is up to 6,300% higher than reported, study finds
Research published in the journal Science found that air pollution from the vast Athabasca oil sands in Canada exceed industry-reported emissions across the studied facilities by a staggering 1,900% to over 6,300% ... damaging reactive pollutants from the oil sands are equivalent to those from all other human-made sources across Canada.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/25/canadian-tar-sands-pollution-is-up-to-6300-higher-than-reported-study-findsThe United States is producing more oil than any country in history
Record-shattering US production is helping to offset aggressive supply cuts meant to support high prices by OPEC+, mainly Saudi Arabia and Russia. Other non-OPEC oil producers including Canada and Brazil are also pumping more oil than ever before ... Goldman Sachs analysts on Sunday cut their forecast for oil prices next year. The bank said the “key reason” behind the lowered forecast is the abundance of US supply. Global demand for crude oil is set to hit a record in 2024 – but it will “easily be met” by the growth in supply, according to S&P’s projections.
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/19/business/us-production-oil-reserves-crude/index.htmlUS was top LNG exporter in 2023 as hit record levels
U.S. liquefied natural gas exports hit monthly and annual record highs in December, tanker tracking data showed, with analysts saying it positioned the United States to leapfrog Qatar and Australia to become the largest exporter of LNG in 2023. Full year exports from the U.S. rose 14.7% to 88.9 million metric tons. Europe remained the main destination for U.S. LNG exports in December, with 5.43 MT, or just over 61%. In November, 68% of U.S. LNG exports were to Europe.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-was-top-lng-exporter-2023-hit-record-levels-2024-01-02/Why Cold Snaps Don’t Negate The Threat Of Climate Warming
The “Captain Obvious” point is that we are in the midst of winter. We will always have winter even as our climate continues to warm ... With cold snaps like this one, there is a disruption in the Polar Vortex, which allows colder high-latitude air to make its way into the United States. A weakened or disrupted Polar Vortex allows lobes of colder air to be displaced southward ... that is weather. I always say, “Weather is your mood, climate is your personality.” The weather on a given day or week does not describe the broader background climate changes ... NOAA’s annual global climate report states, “The year 2023 was the warmest year since global records began [and] the 10 warmest years in the 174-year record have all occurred during the last decade (2014–2023).”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2024/01/14/why-cold-snaps-dont-negate-the-threat-of-climate-warming/
see also https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/climate-change-colder-winters-global-warming-polar-vortexKashmir's rare snowless winter sets off alarm bells
Every year, thousands of tourists visit Kashmir in winter to enjoy skiing and sightseeing. [But] climate change has been impacting the region, causing extreme weather events and prolonged dry spells in both winter and summer. Jammu and Kashmir's weather department recorded a 79% rainfall deficit in December and a 100% deficit in January. The valley is also experiencing warmer weather, with most stations in Kashmir recording a 6-8C (11-14F) rise in temperature this winter ... the absence of snowfall will also impact generation of hydroelectricity, fisheries and farming. "The farming here is dependent on glaciers. The glaciers are melting at a fast rate. No snowfall in the peak [winter] season means early that spring water will be a big problem," environmentalist Sonam Wangchuk says. The region normally receives heavy snowfall during peak winter - a 40-day period that lasts from 21 December to 29 January. During this time, mountains and glaciers get covered with snow and this ensures water supply throughout the year ... "We would witness heavy snowfall of up to 3ft (0.9m) and it wouldn't melt until spring. But we are now witnessing warm winters," Shakil Ahmad Romshoo, an earth scientist, says.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-68015106California Insurance Crisis Deepens as Providers Pull Out of State
Yet another insurer announces its decision to stop offering new policies to residents. The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc.—better known as The Hartford—announced on Wednesday that it will no longer offer new personal property insurance coverage to homeowners in the Golden State ... The Hartford followed the steps taken by several other private insurers in the past couple of years, including State Farm and Allstate, which both announced they would have stopped writing new policies in the state in November 2022 ... Studies have shown that the climate crisis has increased both the frequency and severity of extreme weather events like wildfires, hurricanes and tornadoes, especially in vulnerable states like California and Florida, which are both experiencing an ongoing insurance crisis. Smaller insurers, including Merastar Insurance Company, Unitrin Auto and Home Insurance Company, Unitrin Direct Property and Casualty Company, and Kemper Independence Insurance Company, announced last year that they would not renew policies in California in 2024. The result is that the number of options available to California homeowners to insure their properties is shrinking, and at the same time, their homes are more at risk of being damaged or destroyed by an extreme weather event.
https://www.newsweek.com/california-insurance-crisis-providers-pull-out-state-1863846Banks decline mortgage applications in ‘climate change credit crunch’
Homes are becoming uninsurable and unsellable due to flooding and subsidence risks
Climate change has been linked to severe storms and flooding, damaging homes and businesses every year ... causing lenders to increase their scrutiny of potential homebuyers ... lenders have been changing their borrowing criteria as extreme weather events place more homes at risk of damage – leaving them potentially worthless. [HSBC] warns that it can be harder to get a mortgage on a property that’s at a “high risk” of being impacted by climate change, “especially if it’s uninsurable, due to continuous flooding or the land being unstable, for example” and that “lenders are now completing further checks to assess whether or not a property is at risk due to climate change.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/net-zero/banks-decline-mortgages-climate-change-credit-crunch/Carbon released by bottom trawling ‘too big to ignore’, says study
Fishing nets churn up carbon from the sea floor, more than half of which will eventually be released into the atmosphere
Scientists have long known that bottom trawling – the practice of dragging massive nets along the seabed to catch fish – churns up carbon from the sea floor [and] described trawling as “marine deforestation” that causes “irreparable harm” to the climate, society and wildlife ... “Much like destroying forests, scraping up the sea floor causes irreparable harm to the climate, society and wildlife.” The research builds on previous work by some team members, published in 2021, which showed that bottom trawling released as much carbon dioxide into the ocean annually as the entire aviation industry [and] found that the amount released into the air could double the annual emissions from fuel combustion of the entire global fishing fleet.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/18/carbon-released-by-bottom-trawling-too-big-to-ignore-says-study
reporting on a study at https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2023.1125137/fullScientists explain why the record-shattering 2023 heat has them on edge. Warming may be worsening
The latest calculations from several science agencies showing Earth obliterated global heat records last year may seem scary. But scientists worry that what's behind those numbers could be even worse ... Most said they fear acceleration of climate change that is already right at the edge of the 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) increase since pre-industrial times that nations had hoped to stay within. “The heat over the last calendar year was a dramatic message from Mother Nature,” said University of Arizona climate scientist Katharine Jacobs. Several of the scientists who made the calculations said the climate behaved in strange ways in 2023. They wonder whether human-caused climate change and a natural El Nino were augmented by a freak blip or whether “there's something more systematic afoot,” as NASA climate scientist Gavin Schmidt put it ... Former NASA climate scientist James Hansen, often considered the godfather of global warming science, theorized last year that warming was accelerating. “There is some evidence that the rate of warming over the past decade or so is slightly faster than the decade or so previous — which meets the mathematical definition of acceleration,” said UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain. “However, this too is largely in line with predictions” that warming would accelerate at a certain point ... The World Meteorological Organization, combining the measurements announced Friday with Japanese and European calculations released earlier this month, pegged 2023 at 1.45 degrees Celsius (2.61 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than pre-industrial temperatures. Many of the climate scientists saw little hope of stopping warming at the 1.5-degree goal called for in the 2015 Paris agreement that sought to avert the worst consequences of climate change. “I do not consider it realistic that we can limit warming (averaged over several years) to 1.5C,” wrote Woodwell Climate Research Center scientist Jennifer Francis in an email. “It is technically possible but politically impossible” ... Both NASA and NOAA said the last 10 years, from 2014 to 2023, have been the 10 hottest years they’ve measured. It’s the third time in the last eight years that a global heat record was set. Randall Cerveny, an Arizona State University scientist who helps coordinate record-keeping for the WMO, said the big worry isn’t that a record was broken last year, but that they keep getting broken so frequently.
https://www.voanews.com/a/scientists-explain-record-shattering-2023-heat-warming-may-be-worsening-/7437692.html‘Astounding’ ocean temperatures in 2023 intensified extreme weather, data shows
Record levels of heat were absorbed last year by Earth’s seas, which have been warming year-on-year for the past decade The oceans absorb 90% of the heat trapped by the carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, making it the clearest indicator of global heating ... the oceans are now at their hottest for 1,000 years and heating faster than at any time in the past 2,000 years. The most common measure of the climate crisis – global average air temperature – was also driven up in 2023, by a huge margin ... The new study, published in the journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, used temperature data collected by a range of instruments across the oceans ... humanity uses about half a zettajoule of energy a year to fuel the entire global economy. In total, the oceans absorbed 287 zettajoules in 2023. The ocean surface temperatures in 2023 were “off the charts.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/11/ocean-warming-temperatures-2023-extreme-weather-data
reporting on a study at https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-024-3378-5The people paid to spot risks see high chance of ‘global catastrophe’ within 10 years
The gloomy outlook comes from an annual survey by the World Economic Forum (WEF) of people paid to identify and manage global risks. According to the report published Wednesday, nearly two-thirds of respondents expect an “elevated chance of global catastrophes” in the next decade. About 30% expect the same in the next two years. WEF said its latest report “warns of a global risks landscape in which progress in human development is being chipped away slowly, leaving states and individuals vulnerable to new and resurgent risks.” Results from the survey “highlight a predominantly negative outlook for the world in the short term that is expected to worsen over the long term,” it added. [The report] is based on responses from 1,490 risk experts primarily from business, but also academia, government, and civil society.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/10/business/wef-global-risks-report/index.html
reporting on a study at https://www.weforum.org/publications/global-risks-report-2024/digest/
the climate paper written by actuaries, mentioned in the video [PDF] is at https://actuaries.org.uk/media/qeydewmk/the-emperor-s-new-climate-scenarios.pdfPlants Worldwide Reach a Stomata Stalemate
The underside of a leaf is equipped with many thousands of stomata—microscopic pores that act as pathways for carbon dioxide and water vapor. As climate change causes temperatures to rise, stomata are narrowing, reducing plants’ ability to take in carbon, according to a new study published in Science. While the stomata are open, water vapor travels out, and carbon travels in. The ratio of carbon assimilation per unit of water loss is called water use efficiency, and the new research says that globally, it has stalled. Previously, many scientists thought that in the face of rising emissions water use efficiency would increase, according to the study’s lead authors, because higher atmospheric carbon concentration would mean more carbon would enter stomata. “But what we show is different,” said study coauthor Jingfeng Xiao, an Earth systems scientist at the University of New Hampshire. “The global average plant water use efficiency has stabilized.” That’s because carbon emissions don’t happen in a vacuum; they happen in a complex system. “Not only is carbon dioxide increasing, temperature is increasing, air is becoming drier, and this is where vapor pressure deficit comes in,” said Vivek Arora, a climate scientist at Environment and Climate Change Canada who was not involved in the study ... when plants close or mostly close their stomata, they also reduce their ability to take up carbon ... rising vapor pressure deficits would force plants to keep their stomata closed to conserve water, potentially limiting how much carbon plants take in. The new results indicated that the trillions of plants making up the terrestrial biome began doing that more than 20 years ago, girding against water loss wrought by climate change.
https://eos.org/articles/plants-worldwide-reach-a-stomata-stalemate
reporting on a study at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adf5041Buying Home and Auto Insurance Is Becoming Impossible
Insurers are coming off some of their worst years in history ... Warmer temperatures have made storms worse and contributed to droughts that have elevated wildfire risk ... Climate change also has made it harder for insurers to measure their risks, pushing some to demand even higher premiums to cushion against future losses ... Homeowners and drivers are facing sharply rising premiums, less coverage and fewer, if any, choices of insurer. In some places the only options are bare bones coverage or none at all. That can make homes worth less and harder to sell ... State Farm racked up $13 billion in property-casualty underwriting losses in 2022, its worst ever ... “Climate change will destabilize the global insurance industry,” research firm Forrester Research predicted in a fall report. Increasingly extreme weather will make it harder for insurance companies to model and predict exposures, accurately calculate reserves, offer coverage and pay claims, the report said. As a result, Forrester forecast, “more insurers will leave markets besides the high-stakes states like California, Florida, and Louisiana.” Allstate CEO Wilson said: “There will be insurance deserts ... I don’t think it’s like the insurance industry said, we’re done here, you’re on your own. It’s just, there are certain places where if we can’t spread the cost appropriately and we can’t price it, then we shouldn’t do it.” Insurance agents and analysts said many insurers are “quiet quitting” high-risk areas rather than face the public relations or regulatory fallout from an official exit ... insurers are bracing for a tough future. “There is no place that’s safe, and no place that’s not going to be impacted.”
https://www.wsj.com/business/insurance-home-auto-rate-increases-climate-change-03b806f3
also at https://archive.ph/MqPcf24,000-year-old animal found alive, well and ready to reproduce
For the past 24,000 years, the [bdelloid rotifer] multicellular microorganism had been snoozing in Siberian permafrost, having become frozen in the Arctic ice right around the same time in history that humans first ventured into North America during the Upper Paleolithic era ... Not only did the animal come back to life from its frozen nap, but it also successfully cloned itself multiple times with an asexual reproduction form known as parthenogenesis ... “The takeaway is that a multicellular organism can be frozen and stored as such for thousands of years and then return back to life” ... Previously, a pair of prehistoric nematode, otherwise known as roundworms, were discovered and successfully revived in Russia. The worms were dated to have been between 30,000 and 42,000 years old. Similarly, numerous prehistoric plants and mosses have successfully regenerated after many thousands of years trapped in the ice, the press release said. However, none of the previously discovered specimens were nearly as complex as the bdelloid rotifer.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/24000-year-old-animal-found-alive-siberian-permafrost/961074
reporting on a study at https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(21)00624-2Snow is disappearing as the planet warms
A new study published on Wednesday shows that the human-caused climate crisis has reduced snowpack in most parts of the Northern Hemisphere in the last 40 years, threatening crucial water resources for millions of people ... Wednesday’s study, published by researchers at Dartmouth College in the journal Nature, offers the big picture — climate change has caused significant drops in snow in the world’s north since the 1980s. Areas in the US Southwest and Northeast, as well as in Central and Eastern Europe, have experienced the steepest global warming-related declines of between 10% and 20% per decade. “It’s very clear that climate change has been having negative impacts on snow and water,” said Alexander Gottlieb, lead author of the study ... Many of the world’s water supplies are already threatened by climate change through drought and heat waves that are becoming more frequent and intense. As the planet continues to warm, the study found that many highly populated areas that rely on snow are going to see increased losses in water availability ... “Most of the world’s people live in river basins that are at this precipice of falling off an accelerating snow-loss cliff, whereby every additional degree of warming means greater and greater snowpack loss.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/10/climate/snow-loss-northern-hemisphere-study-climate/index.html
reporting on a study at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06794-yAvian influenza or 'bird flu' has devastated wildlife across South America. Antarctica could be next
The highly contagious and deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu has been tearing a path of devastation across South America ... there are concerns the disease may have finally reached the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula, on the western side of the continent. "The impact will potentially be catastrophic," Michelle Wille, a senior research fellow at the Centre for Pathogen Genomics at the University of Melbourne, said. Preventing its further spread across the frozen continent — including the vast section in the east claimed by Australia — is near impossible. "In South America, the virus travelled the entire 6,000-kilometre spine in about six months," Dr Wille said. As a member for the Antarctic Wildlife Health Network, Dr Wille is bracing for avian influenza's anticipated spread across the vast icy wilderness.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-01-08/antarctic-bird-flu-h5n1-threat-scientists-fear-worst/103287708Sea of methane sealed beneath Arctic permafrost could trigger climate feedback loop if it escapes
"At present, the leakage from below permafrost is very low, but factors such as glacial retreat and permafrost thawing may 'lift the lid' on this in the future," lead author Thomas Birchall, a geologist at the University Center in Svalbard in Norway, said in a statement ... Should this permafrost seal disintegrate, it could set off a chain reaction in which the methane's strong warming effect would thaw more permafrost and release even more gas [which] would further accelerate warming, melting and methane emissions, the researchers warned in the study ... The researchers found deposits rich in methane are much more common than thought on the islands. Given that the archipelago has a similar geological and glacial history to the rest of the Arctic region, the same could be true of other permafrost-covered locations near the North Pole, the statement said. The permafrost seal on Svalbard isn't uniform, the study found [and] permafrost that is leak-proof now might not stay that way.
https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/arctic/sea-of-methane-sealed-beneath-arctic-permafrost-could-trigger-climate-feedback-loop-if-it-escapes
reporting on a study at https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2023.1277027/fullAlaska's snow crab season canceled for second year in a row as population fails to rebound
The crisis first began in early 2022, after biologists discovered an estimated 10 billion crabs disappeared — a 90% plunge in the population ... A recent survey of the species showed little sign of a rebound. "Environmental conditions are changing rapidly ... We've seen warm conditions in the Bering Sea the last couple of years, and we're seeing a response in a cold-adapted species, so it's pretty obvious this is connected. It is a canary in a coal mine for other species that need cold water." According to new research from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a marine heat wave linked to climate change impacted the snow crabs' food supply and drove them to starvation.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/alaska-snow-crab-season-canceled-2024/
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